Issued 13 March 2023

February 2023 Palmer Z-Index
U.S. Percent Area Wet or Dry January 1996 - February 2023
February 2023 /monitoring-content/sotc/drought/2023/02/or-p-reg035dv00elem01-01022023.gif

Please note that the values presented in this report are based on preliminary data. They will change when the final data are processed, but will not be replaced on these pages.

National Drought Highlights

Detailed Drought Overview

The atmospheric circulation over North America was very active during February 2023. Numerous upper-level shortwave troughs and closed lows moved through the jet stream flow throughout the month, dragging Pacific fronts and surface lows with them. During the first half of the month, the weather systems frequently fell apart as they moved across the West, resulting in a drier-than-normal pattern. They re-energized over the Plains and tapped Gulf of Mexico moisture to drop above-normal precipitation as they moved from eastern parts of the southern Plains towards the Great Lakes, and over the Southeast. During the last half of the month, more of the Pacific systems held together over the West, with some moving slowly and dumping copious amounts of precipitation across California to the Rocky Mountains. The Pacific moisture fell in the form of flooding rains and heavy snow, especially over central parts of California. A strong subtropical high pressure ridge, that was anchored over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, held sway over the eastern CONUS for much of the month. The ridge created a southerly flow in the circulation that kept temperatures warmer than normal across the eastern half of the country and also helped to direct the weather systems in a northeasterly direction towards the Great Lakes. Temperatures were unusually warm for this time of year in the northern Plains to Midwest early in the month, Northeast at mid-month, and Southeast at the end of the month. The hot temperatures increased evaporation, even for this time of the year, especially at southerly locations. The persistent passage of Pacific weather systems and their upper-level lows created a trough over the western CONUS in the monthly circulation pattern, which was associated with cooler-than-normal monthly temperatures. The heavy precipitation at the end of the month over the West was not enough to overcome the excessive dryness that occurred earlier in the month, with monthly precipitation ending up drier than normal over large parts of the West, especially in the Pacific Northwest. The weather systems missed large parts of the Great Plains, Gulf Coast, and Northeast, which were also drier than normal for the month. A wet trade-wind pattern early in the month combined with a very wet Kona Low later in the month to give Hawaii a wetter-than-normal February.

The above-normal precipitation and snowpack resulted in contraction or reduction of the intensity of drought over large parts of the West, especially in central California. Above-normal precipitation also contracted or reduced drought intensity in parts of the Plains and coastal Southeast, across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and in the Great Lakes and Hawaii. Heavy rain from repeated passages of frontal systems caused multiple categories of improvement over eastern Oklahoma. But areas experiencing a drier-than-normal month saw drought expansion or intensification. These areas included parts of the Pacific Northwest, southern Plains, Florida, and central Gulf of Mexico coast. Drought contraction greatly exceeded expansion with the USDM-based national moderate-to-exceptional drought footprint across the CONUS decreasing from 42.7% at the end of January to 38.5% at the end of February (from 35.7% to 32.1% for the 50 states and Puerto Rico). According to USDM statistics, the week of February 28 ended the streak of 40% or more of the CONUS that had been in moderate drought or worse. This streak lasted for 126 weeks, which is a record in the 22-year USDM history and double the previous record of 68 consecutive weeks (June 19, 2012 to October 1, 2013).

According to the Palmer Drought Index, which goes back to the beginning of the 20th century, about 18.0% of the CONUS was in moderate to extreme drought at the end of February, which is a slight drop compared to the end of January.

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Drought conditions at the end of February, as depicted on the February 28, 2023 USDM map, included the following core drought and abnormally dry areas:

Palmer Drought Index

The Palmer drought indices measure the balance between moisture demand (evapotranspiration driven by temperature) and moisture supply (precipitation). The Palmer Z Index depicts moisture conditions for the current month, while the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) depict the current month's cumulative moisture conditions integrated over the last several months.

While both the PDSI and PHDI indices show long-term moisture conditions, the PDSI depicts meteorological drought while the PHDI depicts hydrological drought. The PDSI map may show less severe and extensive drought (as well as wet spell conditions) in some parts of the country than the PHDI map because the meteorological conditions that produce drought and wet spell conditions are not as long-lasting as the hydrological impacts.

February 2023 Palmer Z-Index
February 2023 PHDI

Used together, the Palmer Z Index and PHDI maps show that short-term drought occurred in the Pacific Northwest, southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Mid-Atlantic Coast to Northeast, expanding or intensifying long-term drought or shrinking long-term wet conditions (PHDI maps for February compared to January). Short-term drought also occurred part of the northern Plains and contracted long-term wetness there. Short-term wet conditions occurred in eastern Oklahoma, shrinking long-term drought, and over the Midwest, shrinking long-term drought in some areas and expanding long-term wet conditions in other areas. Short-term wet conditions also occurred from California to the central Rockies, expanding or introducing local areas of long-term wet conditions.

Standardized Precipitation Index

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) measures moisture supply. The SPI maps here show the spatial extent of anomalously wet and dry areas at time scales ranging from 1 month to 24 months.

February 2023 SPI
January-February 2023 SPI
December 2022-February 2023 SPI
September 2022-February 2023 SPI

The SPI maps illustrate how moisture conditions have varied considerably through time and space over the last two years. Dryness is evident across much of the Pacific Northwest at all time scales, and is especially intense and widespread at the 2- and 24-month time scales. The Florida Peninsula is dry at the 1- to 3-month time scales, with northern Florida and parts of the Gulf Coast westward dry at the 1- to 9-month time scales. The Northeast is dry at 1 month with dryness along the Mid-Atlantic coast at 1 and 2 months, extending to the Carolina coast at 6 to 24 months. Parts of the northern Plains are dry at 1, 2, 6, 9, and 24 months; the central Plains has dryness at the 6- to 24-month time scales; and parts of the southern Plains are dry at all time scales. California still has dryness in some areas at 24 months. Parts of the Southwest are dry at the 1- and 24-month time scales. Eastern parts of the central Plains to the Great Lakes are wet at the 1-month time scale, with wet conditions extending from California to the Northeast at 2 and 3 months. It is wet from California to the central and southern Rockies at 6 to 12 months, and from the central Gulf Coast to Northeast at 24 months.

June 2022-February 2023 SPI
March 2022-February 2023 SPI
March 2021-February 2023 SPI

Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

The SPI measures water supply (precipitation), while the SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) measures the combination of water supply (precipitation) and water demand (evapotranspiration as computed from temperature). Warmer temperatures tend to increase evapotranspiration, which generally makes droughts more intense.

For the Northern Hemisphere, February marks the end of climatological winter, which is the season when evapotranspiration is minimum. During February 2023, temperatures were much warmer than normal across most of the CONUS east of the Great Plains. But much of this area received precipitation and was also near to wetter than normal. The 1-month SPEI was a little more severe than the corresponding SPI in parts of the Southeast where it was warmer and drier than normal. Even though the Northeast was mostly warmer and drier than normal, temperatures averaged near freezing and evapotranspiration was minimal for this time of year. The seasonal reduction in evapotranspiration, plus the anomalously wet conditions east of the Rockies and near to below-normal temperatures in the West, resulted in February SPEI values that were of similar magnitude to the corresponding SPI values in most areas in the CONUS. This was generally the case for the last 1 to 6 months. The SPEI was more extreme than the SPI in the Pacific Northwest at the 8-month time scale, and in the southern Plains at the 12-month time scale, where unusual dryness was accompanied by unusual warmth during those time periods (SPEI maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 12 months) (SPI maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 12 months).

The above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation dating back to summer 2022 resulted in an 8-month SPEI that ranked in the top 10 most extreme category for Oregon but an 8-month SPI that wasn't even in the top 20 category.

The last ten to 20 years have been a period of unusually warm temperatures across the West, especially during the warm half of the year (April-September) but also during the cold half of the year (October-March). There have also been periods of extreme dryness westwide during this period. The combination of excessive heat and dryness has resulted in more extreme SPEI values than SPI values for the last six years (SPEI maps for last 12, 18, 24, 30, 36, 48, 60, 72 months) (SPI maps for last 12, 18, 24, 30, 36, 48, 60, 72 months).

This has especially been the case for Arizona, California, Nevada, and Oregon, but also Texas in the southern Plains. While the recent precipitation has knocked SPEI ranks out of the most-extreme-on-record category, the SPEI values are still more extreme than the corresponding SPI values for the following states and time scales:

  • Texas had a 30-month February SPEI was in the top 10 driest category while the corresponding SPI was less extreme — in the top 20 driest category.
  • Oregon's 36-month February SPEI was the sixth driest on record while the corresponding SPI was dry but considerably less extreme.
  • California's 36-month February SPEI was the fifth driest on record while the corresponding SPI wasn't even in the top 20 driest category.
  • California had a 60-month February SPEI was in the top 10 driest category while the corresponding SPI was near the long-term average.
  • California's 72-month February SPEI was the second most extreme on record while the corresponding SPI was only in the top 20 driest category.
  • Arizona had a 72-month February SPEI that ranked in the top 20 driest category while the corresponding SPI was near the long-term average.
  • Nevada had a 72-month February SPEI that ranked in the top 20 driest category while the corresponding SPI was near the long-term average.

Regional Discussion

Western United States

Even though heavy precipitation fell across parts of the West near the end of the month, February 2023 ended up drier than normal for most of the region. The last four months (November 2022-February 2023) have been wetter than normal for much of the western CONUS — except for the Pacific Northwest and parts of New Mexico. Mountain snowpack improved considerably in some areas during February, with some SNOTEL stations in California's Sierra Nevada range receiving over five feet of new snow and record snow depth occurring from California to the central Rockies. The mountain snow pack (snow depth) was above normal across much of the West, although the snow water content (SWE) over the Pacific Northwest was still below average. The precipitation (especially rainfall) during the last several months has refilled many of California's reservoirs, especially in the central part of the state. But reservoirs in other parts of the West are still below average, with some (especially in Oregon and Utah) having near-record-low water levels (reservoir maps for westwide; California; Utah; Oregon map 1, 2, 3, 4, 5; Idaho map 1, 2, 3; Southwest map 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Several years of below-average to record-low precipitation have lowered groundwater levels, some of which are still at record-low levels (SNOTEL percent of average precipitation maps for the last 1, 5, 12, 24, 36, 48 months) (SNOTEL precipitation percentile maps for the last 1, 5, 12, 24, 36, 48 months).

Regionwide, the western U.S. (Rockies to West Coast) had the 46th driest February in the 1895-2023 record, 27th wettest December-February, 43rd wettest March-February 12-month period, 33rd driest March-February 24-month period, and eighth driest March-February 36-month period. Even with widespread below-normal temperatures in February, the last 12 months still averaged warmer than average regionwide. Summer half-year and winter half-year temperatures in recent years have also been unusually warm, contributing (especially during the summer) to enhanced evapotranspiration that dries soils and exacerbates drought conditions.

Based on the USDM, the percent area of the western U.S. in moderate to exceptional drought was 53.6% at the end of February. The western U.S. has not been free of drought or abnormal dryness for virtually the entire 23-year history of the USDM — the smallest percent area in drought or abnormal dryness was 12.3% on June 11, 2019. Based on the USDM data, there have been five major expansions of drought during this time period.

Based on the Palmer Drought Index, about 16.8% of the western U.S. was experiencing moderate to extreme drought at the end of February. This is a slight increase compared to the end of January, is based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and reflects the change in atmospheric conditions from a dry circulation pattern to a wet circulation pattern. The PDSI is a meteorological drought index. The Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) is a hydrological drought index that reflects hydrological conditions instead of changes in atmospheric circulation. The PHDI shows a little more drought remaining across the West than does the PDSI. Like the USDM, the Palmer Drought Index shows that much of the West has been in drought for the last 23 years and that the drought has had roughly five major expansions during this time period. Since the Palmer data go back to the beginning of the 20th century, they also show that the last two decades have had a greater spatial extent of persistent drought in the West than any other decades in the last 123 years.

Great Plains

Eastern parts of the Great Plains received above-normal precipitation in February while other parts were dry. The central to northern Great Plains have been wetter than normal at the 2- to 4-month time scales, while southern parts were dry. Previous months have been quite dry, especially the last three years. Regionwide, the Great Plains had the 20th driest March-February 12-month period, 21st driest March-February 24-month period, and 13th driest March-February 36-month period. While the last three years have been dry, the dryness has not been as severe and widespread, regionwide, as the 1930s and 1950s droughts.

Temperatures have also been unusually warm, especially in the southern Plains. Texas had the third hottest March-February 12-month period. Regionwide, the warmest years (March-February periods) of the last 20 years have been about as warm as the warmest years of the 1930s. Some summers (warm half-year, April-September) have been as hot as the warmest summers of the 1930s, but winters (cold half-year, October-March) have been considerably warmer than previous decades.

As of the end of February, 33.7% of the Great Plains region was affected by moderate to extreme drought, based on the PDSI. This is a decrease from the 42.3% at the end of January. The recent drought, at its peak last year, was as expansive as the drought of the 1950s. Based on the PDSI and PHDI, the Texas panhandle (High Plains, Climate Division 1) had the most severe drought in the country as of the end of February 2023 (a value of -4.10). During the most recent drought episode (last 3 years), the PHDI value peaked in July last year. The July 2022 value was as extreme as the worst values in the 1950s drought for this part of Texas. The record dry PHDI value here occurred in August 2011.

Hawaii

February 2023 was wetter than normal across most of the Hawaiian Islands. Wetter-than-normal conditions dominated at the 2- to 3-month time scales. Oahu was drier than normal with the other main islands wetter than normal at 4 to 9 months, with some dryness creeping in on the windward side of the Big Island. A mixed pattern was evident at longer time scales (precipitation anomaly maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 months) (climate engine model percent of normal precipitation map for the last month).

Monthly streamflow was mostly near to above normal. There was little to no stress on vegetation this month based on satellite analyses (stressed vegetation, drought risk, VHI).

Drought and abnormal dryness were eliminated in Hawaii this month, as seen on the February 28, 2023 USDM map.

Alaska

February 2023 was drier than normal in portions of northern and eastern interior Alaska and along the southern coast from the Northeast Gulf to the Aleutians, and generally near to wetter than normal elsewhere in the state. Drier-than-normal conditions persisted at the 2- to 6-month time scales in some north coast locations and from the Cook Inlet and Northwest Gulf to the Aleutians; a mixed anomaly pattern was evident in the panhandle at 3 to 4 months. Eastern interior dryness could be seen at 9 to 12 months while the Aleutians continued dry. Wetter-than-normal conditions dominated the state at longer time scales except for persistent dryness in the Cook Inlet area (low elevation station precipitation anomaly maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 months) (high elevation SNOTEL station percent of normal precipitation maps for the last 1 and 5 months) (high elevation SNOTEL station precipitation percentile maps for the last 1, 5, 12 months) (SNOTEL basin and station percent of normal precipitation maps for the last 1, 5, 12 months) (climate division precipitation rank maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 6, and 12 months) (climate engine model percent of normal precipitation map for the last month) (Leaky Bucket model precipitation percentile map).

February temperatures were near normal across the state, while the last 2 months were warmer than normal across most of the state. At the 3- to 6-month time scales, temperatures were near to cooler than normal in the panhandle, but warmer than normal across the rest of the state. Warmer-than-average temperatures dominated at for the last 12 months (low elevation station temperature anomaly maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 12 months) (climate division temperature rank maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 6, and 12 months) (gridded temperature percentile maps for the last 1, 2, and 3 months) (Leaky Bucket model temperature percentile map).

The winter snowpack covered the state and was near to above average in most basins. Snow water content (SWE) was near to above normal except for some SNOTEL stations in the Cook Inlet area (satellite-based estimates of snow depth and SWE; SNOTEL station SWE percentile and SWE percent of normal; SNOTEL basin percent of normal SWE; SNOTEL station and basin percent of normal SWE). Monthly streamflow was mostly near to above normal for those streams that were not frozen.

Alaska was free of drought and abnormal dryness on the February 28, 2023 USDM map.

Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

February 2023 was drier than normal across much of Puerto Rico (PR) and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). The last 2 months had most of PR wetter than normal and a mixed precipitation anomaly pattern over the USVI. Drier-than-normal conditions dominated at the 3- to 4-month time scales over both PR and the USVI, but 5 months were wetter than normal over most of PR and continued drier than normal over the USVI. It was wetter than normal over both at 6 to 9 months. The USVI were drier than normal at 11 to 24 months with a mixed anomaly pattern over PR. Drier-than-normal conditions dominated both at longer time scales (radar-based precipitation anomaly estimates for the last 1, 2, and 3 months) (low elevation station precipitation maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 months) (climate engine model percent of normal precipitation map for the last month: PR and USVI, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico region).

Root zone analyses indicated that soil conditions were moist across eastern and interior portions of PR, but dry along the southern and northwest coasts of PR (root zone soil saturation fraction); satellite-based analyses indicated that top layers of the soil were drying out across the USVI and PR, but deeper soils were still moist (relative soil moisture at 0-10 cm [0-4 in], 10-40 cm [4-16 in], 40-100 cm [16-39 in], 100-200 cm [39-79 in] depth). Satellite analyses showed a few areas of vegetative stress due to drought (VHI for PR and USVI, drought risk for PR and USVI, stressed vegetation for PR and USVI). Monthly streamflow on PR was mostly near to above normal with scattered below-normal streams. In the USVI, for the most part, groundwater steadily declined during February at St. Croix and St. John, but steadily rose at St. Thomas. The end-of-February groundwater level was in mid-range (below previous peaks and above recent low levels) on all three islands (St. Thomas, St. Croix, St. John).

In the USVI, moderate drought developed on St. Thomas and St. Croix while St. John remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. Abnormal dryness expanded to cover about 20.2% of PR on the February 28, 2023 USDM map.

CONUS State Precipitation Ranks

February 2023 was drier than normal in the Northeast and Pacific Northwest, along the Gulf of Mexico Coast, and in parts of the Plains. Nineteen states had a precipitation rank in the driest third of the 129-year historical record for February, including three that ranked in the top ten driest category — Connecticut and Rhode Island (both seventh driest), and Massachusetts (eighth driest) — plus two that were close — Maine and New Jersey (both 11th driest).

January-February 2023 was drier than normal in the Pacific Northwest, northern and southern Plains, Mid-Atlantic Coast, and Florida, with locally record dry conditions occurring in the northern Plains. Nine states had a precipitation rank in the driest third of the historical record for January-February, including one that ranked in the top ten driest category (North Dakota at ninth driest) and two that were close — Oregon (11th driest) and Maryland (13th driest).

Winter (December 2022-February 2023) was drier than normal in the Pacific Northwest, southern Plains, Mid-Atlantic, and Florida. Only four states had a precipitation rank in the driest third of the historical record. No state ranked in the top ten driest category because wet conditions occurred in enough parts of dry states to raise their precipitation rank.

The last six months (September 2022-February 2023) were drier than normal in the Pacific Northwest, Great Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf Coast. Seven states had a precipitation rank in the driest third of the historical record. Like winter, no state ranked in the top ten driest category because wet conditions occurred in enough parts of dry states to raise their precipitation rank, or the 6-month dryness was not that extreme.

The last 12 months (March 2022-February 2023 were drier than normal across the southern and central Plains and parts of the Pacific Northwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic to New England Coast. Seven states had a precipitation rank in the driest third of the historical record for March-February. None ranked in the top ten driest category, but one was close — Nebraska, at 13th driest.

Agricultural Belts

During February 2023, the Primary Hard Red Winter Wheat agricultural belt had a mixed precipitation and temperature anomaly pattern. The month ranked as the 56th wettest and 53rd warmest February, regionwide, in the 1895-2023 record.

October marks the beginning of the growing season for the Primary Hard Red Winter Wheat belt. October 2022-February 2023 also had a mixed precipitation and temperature anomaly pattern, although it was very dry from the Texas panhandle to central Kansas while the temperatures were generally cooler than normal in the northwest to warmer than normal in the southeast. The period ranked as the 61st driest and 41st warmest October-February, regionwide, on record.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), as of January 31, 2023, drought affected approximately 57% of barley production, 34% of corn production, 45% of cotton production, 19% of rice production, 86% of sorghum production, 26% of soybean production, 59% of spring wheat production, 54% of winter wheat production, 34% of hay acreage, 48% of the cattle inventory, 23% of the milk cow inventory, and 40% of the sheep inventory.

U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands

The NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) offices, the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center (PEAC), and partners provided reports on conditions across the Pacific Islands.

In the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) (maps — Federated States of Micronesia [FSM], Northern Mariana Islands, Marshall Islands [RMI], Republic of Palau, American Samoa, basinwide), February 2023 was drier than normal across the northern Marshalls and parts of the FSM, and near to wetter than normal everywhere else.

Monthly precipitation amounts were below the monthly minimum needed to meet most water needs (4 inches in the Marianas and Pago Pago, and 8 inches elsewhere) at Ailinglaplap,Jaluit, Kwajalein, and Wotje (RMI); Saipan (Marianas); and Kapingamarangi, Lukunor, Pingelap, Ulithi, Woleai, and Yap (FSM). February precipitation was above the monthly minimums at the rest of the stations across the USAPI. The 4- and 8-inch thresholds are important because, if monthly precipitation falls below the threshold, then water shortages or drought become a concern.

The tropical Pacific climatology can experience extremes in precipitation, from very low precipitation during the dry season to very high precipitation during the wet season. This can result in monthly normal precipitation values that are different from the monthly minimum needed to meet most water needs, and this can lead to percent of normal values that seem odd. This was the case during February 2023, which is in the wet season for American Samoa and dry season for Micronesia. Precipitation was below the monthly minimum but above normal (1981-2010 normal), because the normals are low, at:

  • Saipan: February 2023 precipitation 3.05 inches, February normal mean 2.60 inches, February normal median 2.59 inches.
  • Yap: February 2023 precipitation 6.11 inches, February normal mean 5.99 inches, February normal median 5.19 inches.
  • Woleai: February 2023 precipitation 6.77 inches, February normal mean 6.12 inches.
  • Jaluit: February 2023 precipitation 7.58 inches, February normal mean 6.22 inches.

In the table below, the station identified as Koror is Palau International Airport (Airai).

Pacific Island Percent of 1981-2010 Normal Median Precipitation
Station Name Mar
2022
Apr
2022
May
2022
Jun
2022
Jul
2022
Aug
2022
Sep
2022
Oct
2022
Nov
2022
Dec
2022
Jan
2023
Feb
2023
Mar-
Feb
Chuuk166%138%176%68%107%70%121%124%93%116%92%215%115%
Guam NAS110%187%69%79%135%62%109%150%77%182%350%188%104%
Kapingamarangi58%66%10%25%61%51%44%34%55%53%166%47%48%
Koror156%303%203%81%72%119%45%241%88%105%187%102%121%
Kosrae216%195%132%139%169%117%134%169%107%99%131%188%126%
Kwajalein471%156%196%141%94%132%68%161%81%88%224%50%125%
Lukonor133%125%88%62%66%32%36%95%94%54%124%68%69%
Majuro298%255%66%71%96%74%159%147%91%90%157%138%126%
Pago Pago51%58%96%110%166%121%60%149%118%71%114%110%87%
Pohnpei211%157%112%122%173%138%143%148%85%74%136%146%132%
Saipan265%204%76%106%159%80%67%151%60%130%441%118%123%
Yap159%254%153%83%110%65%57%217%68%131%133%118%113%
Pacific Island Precipitation (Inches)
Station Name Mar
2022
Apr
2022
May
2022
Jun
2022
Jul
2022
Aug
2022
Sep
2022
Oct
2022
Nov
2022
Dec
2022
Jan
2023
Feb
2023
Mar-
Feb
Chuuk13.83"17.19"19.87"7.93"12.86"8.98"14.15"14.27"9.83"13.00"9.34"15.60"156.85"
Guam NAS2.28"4.74"2.35"4.88"13.71"9.15"13.74"17.12"5.66"9.32"14.02"5.69"102.66"
Kapingamarangi6.62"8.97"1.19"3.40"8.60"4.17"4.38"2.76"5.11"5.23"15.23"4.37"70.03"
Koror11.57"22.21"24.06"14.19"13.31"16.00"5.26"28.49"10.00"11.76"19.04"8.74"184.63"
Kosrae34.72"34.09"23.42"20.39"25.14"16.69"19.11"18.53"14.74"15.95"21.87"24.25"268.9"
Kwajalein11.07"8.21"13.17"9.78"9.23"12.81"7.34"18.02"9.09"5.88"7.08"1.32"113"
Lukonor12.28"14.14"10.27"7.19"10.52"4.55"3.70"10.73"8.52"6.06"10.45"6.08"104.49"
Majuro19.61"24.02"6.72"7.78"10.70"8.65"17.72"18.76"12.21"10.30"12.14"9.51"158.12"
Pago Pago5.50"5.42"9.32"5.84"9.23"6.53"3.92"13.82"11.93"9.10"15.19"13.19"108.99"
Pohnpei27.81"28.86"22.32"18.02"26.66"19.69"17.91"22.62"12.66"11.86"17.94"13.99"240.34"
Saipan5.01"5.36"1.81"3.84"14.16"10.55"6.72"16.07"3.39"5.01"11.16"3.05"86.13"
Yap7.23"14.28"12.04"10.04"16.54"9.57"7.76"26.48"5.99"11.17"8.51"6.11"135.72"
Pacific Island 1981-2010 Normal Median Precipitation (Inches)
Station Name Mar
2022
Apr
2022
May
2022
Jun
2022
Jul
2022
Aug
2022
Sep
2022
Oct
2022
Nov
2022
Dec
2022
Jan
2023
Feb
2023
Mar-
Feb
Chuuk8.32"12.47"11.30"11.66"11.98"12.86"11.71"11.51"10.61"11.25"10.10"7.25"136.77"
Guam NAS2.07"2.53"3.40"6.18"10.14"14.74"12.66"11.44"7.38"5.11"4.01"3.03"99.09"
Kapingamarangi11.43"13.64"12.08"13.78"14.15"8.13"9.93"8.19"9.27"9.84"9.15"9.27"145.85"
Koror7.44"7.32"11.83"17.48"18.53"13.50"11.77"11.84"11.39"11.16"10.18"8.56"152.90"
Kosrae16.06"17.51"17.75"14.64"14.91"14.22"14.22"10.94"13.83"16.11"16.67"12.93"213.87"
Kwajalein2.35"5.26"6.72"6.93"9.87"9.74"10.74"11.18"11.28"6.66"3.16"2.64"90.41"
Lukonor9.26"11.31"11.69"11.65"15.93"14.04"10.15"11.32"9.08"11.27"8.41"8.93"151.36"
Majuro6.58"9.42"10.11"11.01"11.17"11.69"11.17"12.73"13.44"11.39"7.74"6.88"125.25"
Pago Pago10.68"9.39"9.66"5.33"5.55"5.38"6.53"9.26"10.14"12.84"13.34"12.00"125.57"
Pohnpei13.17"18.41"19.96"14.81"15.43"14.26"12.55"15.27"14.83"16.08"13.18"9.55"182.36"
Saipan1.89"2.63"2.38"3.62"8.91"13.13"10.09"10.62"5.61"3.85"2.53"2.59"70.25"
Yap4.56"5.63"7.85"12.04"15.08"14.82"13.50"12.18"8.83"8.51"6.39"5.19"120.31"

As measured by percent of normal precipitation, Kapingamarangi and Lukunor were drier than normal in the short term (February, the year-to-date [January-February], and the last 3 months [December-February]) and long term (last 12 months [March 2022-February 2023]). Kwajalein was drier than normal in the short-term (February and December-February) and wetter than normal in the long-term. Pago Pago was near to wetter than normal in the short-term (February and January-February) and drier than normal in the long-term (last 12 months, as well as December-February). Airai, Chuuk, Guam, Kosrae, Majuro, Pohnpei, Saipan, and Yap were near to wetter than normal for all 4 time periods.

Based on percent of normal average (instead of normal median values), in the Marianas Islands, precipitation during February and the last 2 to 24 months was generally above normal across the main islands. Longer time periods had a mixed anomaly pattern, with drier-than-normal conditions dominating at 48 months (percent of normal precipitation maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 months).

Based on percent of normal average (instead of normal median values), in the Marshall Islands, February, December-February, November-February, and September-February were drier than normal in the western islands (and northern islands in February) and wetter than normal to the east. January-February, October-February, and the last 8 to 12 months were mostly wetter than normal. It was drier than normal in the far northeast (Wotje) and southwest (Jaluit) at the 24- to 48-month time scales with wetter-than-normal conditions dominating at longer time scales (percent of normal precipitation maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 months).

According to the February 28 USDM produced for the USAPI, moderate drought developed at Kwajalein and Wotje, abnormal dryness developed at Lukunor and Pingelap, and moderate drought improved to abnormal dryness on Kapingamarangi, while the rest of the USAPI stations were free of drought and abnormal dryness.

There were no Drought Information Statements (DGT) issued for the USAPI in February. There was some browning of vegetation occurring on the Kwajalein main atoll, but no water usage impacts were reported. Water catchments on the northern and western RMI atolls were getting low. Vegetation was starting to yellow on islands in Chuuk State, but no drought impacts have been reported in Chuuk State or in Yap State. The reservoir level on Majuro generally increased during the first part of the month and decreased for the last half of the month. The reservoir level peaked at about 28.0 million gallons of water on February 15, had a minimum value of 23.7 million gallons on February 7, and ended the month at 24.6 million gallons. This is below the threshold of concern for drought of 28.8 million gallons. Some of the low water level is due to one sector of the reservoir being serviced. This portion of the reservoir system typically holds 8 million gallons, so the 23.7 million gallon minimum level was above the revised 20.8 million gallon level of concern.

Satellite observations of vegetation health (VHI, stressed vegetation, drought stress) on Guam generally indicated no drought concerns.

February 2023 precipitation ranks were mostly in the median to wet side of the historical distribution, based on data available at the time of this report. Record to near-record dryness was still occurring at Kapingamarangi and Lukunor at longer time scales:

  • Kapingamarangi: 10th wettest February (in a 36-year record), but 2nd driest rank for May-February & April-February, and driest March-February.
  • Lukunor: 9th driest February (39 years), and driest July-February through April-February, 2nd driest August-February & March-February.
  • Pingelap: 9th driest February (41 years).

At the wet end of the scale, Mili had the 2nd wettest February and wettest rank for November-February through March-February.

The following analysis of historical data for the USAPI stations in the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCN-D) dataset, augmented with fill-in data from the 1981-2010 Normals, helps put the current data into historical perspective by computing ranks based on the period of record. The table below lists the precipitation ranks for February 2023, September 2022-February 2023 (last 6 months), and March 2022-February 2023 (the last 12 months). Some stations have a long period of record and their dataset is fairly complete, while other stations have a shorter period of record and the dataset has some missing data.

February 2023 USAPI Precipitation Ranks (1 = driest)
StationFebruary 2023Sep 2022-Feb 2023Mar 2022-Feb 2023Period of Record
RankYearsRankYearsRankYears
Ailinglaplap1540283836371981-2023
Airai3872587269701951-2023
Chuuk6972577257711951-2023
Fananu--8--5--22003-2023
Guam4966596637661957-2023
Jaluit3040123818371981-2023
Kapingamarangi10364231181962-2023
Kosrae4757293931341954-2023
Kwajalein2171357154701952-2023
Lukunor9396372261981-2023
Majuro4969566959681954-2023
Mili3839353534341981-2023
Nukuoro3541353936381981-2023
Pago Pago3357275714561966-2023
Pingelap941--37--351981-2023
Pohnpei5372577271711951-2023
Saipan3143313530341981-2023
Ulithi2040233726351981-2023
Utirik--19--9--31985-2020
Woleai2739313426271968-2023
Wotje2040173731361981-2023
Yap4372527257711951-2023
Map of USAPIFebruary 2023 Precipitation (Inches)
Map of USAPI February 2023 Percent of Normal Precipitation
Map of USAPI January-February 2023 Percent of Normal Precipitation
Map of USAPI December-February 2023 Percent of Normal Precipitation
Map of USAPI March 2022-February 2023 Percent of Normal Precipitation

SPI values for seven time periods for Pacific Islands, computed by the Honolulu NWS office.

SPI values for seven time periods for Pacific Islands

NOAA Regional Climate Centers

More information, provided by the NOAA Regional Climate Centers and others, can be found below.

Southeast

As noted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, mean monthly temperatures were well above average across the Southeast in February. For the third consecutive month, mean temperatures were near average across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Precipitation was below average across most of the region in February. The driest locations were found across central portions of Georgia, southern Alabama, northwest Florida, and much of the Florida Peninsula (except around Miami), where monthly precipitation totals were less than 50 percent of normal. Precipitation was also below average across most of North Carolina, eastern Virginia, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Some locations in southwest Florida were especially dry during the month. Naples, FL did not record any precipitation in February for only the third time on record (since 1942). Key West, FL recorded just 0.01 inches (0.25 mm) of precipitation, which tied its second driest February on record (since 1871), while Fort Myers, FL recorded its fifth driest February on record (since 1892) with just 0.07 inches (1.8 mm) of precipitation. Precipitation was variable across Puerto Rico.

Drought conditions continued to worsen across the Florida Peninsula due to the lack of precipitation and warm temperatures. By the end of February, most of the Peninsula was in moderate (D1) drought, with the rest of the state in abnormally dry (D0) conditions except in the central Panhandle (around Tallahassee) and southeast Peninsula (around Miami). Moderate (D1) drought emerged on St. Thomas and St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Abnormally dry (D0) conditions expanded slightly across the north coastal region of Puerto Rico and outlying islands. On the other hand, moderate (D1) drought was eliminated across Alabama and the Carolinas, while the region of severe (D2) drought in the Big Bend region of Florida was improved to moderate (D1) drought. Small areas of abnormally dry (D0) conditions remained across the western Panhandle of Florida, southern Georgia, and eastern sections of North Carolina and Virginia. Moderate (D1) drought persisted across the southern tip of the Delmarva Peninsula. Overall, about 10 percent of the region was in abnormally dry (D0) conditions by the end of February, while moderate (D1) drought covered about 13 percent of the region.

In Florida, the dry weather aided the harvest of sugarcane as well as the planting of rice and most citrus grove activities. However, the lack of precipitation has negatively impacted pastures, with many reported as poor to fair by the end of the month. The exceptionally warm weather in February caused some perennial fruit crops to bloom much earlier than usual, which has farmers concerned about potential losses if a late season freeze occurs over the next couple of months.

South

As explained by the Southern Regional Climate Center, February was a mixed month for temperatures across the Southern region with near-normal temperatures observed across much of Texas and Oklahoma, while the eastern portions of the region were well above normal for the month. Precipitation was near normal across much of the region, with areas of well-above-normal precipitation in eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and the Big Bend area of Texas, and well below normal in southern Texas, portions of far-west Texas and the Texas Panhandle.

During February, the spatial extent of drought conditions remained relatively steady across the Southern region. As of February 28th, much of central Texas, the Texas Panhandle, much of Oklahoma, and extreme southern Louisiana remained in drought conditions. Degradation was evident in deep southern Texas, with the emergence of Extreme Drought. Eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma saw improvement in drought conditions with much of this area becoming drought free. Arkansas, Tennessee, and Mississippi were free of drought as of February 28th. In the areas experiencing drought, the primary impacts are low reservoir levels, low streamflow, and poor condition of overwintering/cold season crops and pasture. In the USDA Oklahoma Crop Progress and Condition report released on March 6, 2023, winter wheat was rated 39 percent good to excellent (one percent rated excellent), 21 percent fair, and 40 percent poor to very poor and in the USDA Texas Crop Progress and Condition report, winter wheat was rated 19 percent good to excellent (three percent rated excellent), 31 percent fair, and 50% poor to very poor.

Midwest

As described by the Midwest Regional Climate Center, the average February temperature for the Midwest was 29.2 degrees F (-1.6 degrees C), which was 2.9 degrees F (1.6 degrees C) above the 1991-2020 normal, and February precipitation totaled 2.64 inches (67 mm) for the Midwest, which was 0.8 inch (47 mm) above normal, or 144 percent of normal. Conditions continued to improve across the month of February. By month's end, the USDM indicated that 12 percent of the region had abnormal dryness and 10 percent was in drought. The primary drought areas were in western Iowa, western Minnesota, and southeast Michigan. Across the winter season (December-February), drought conditions improved substantially. Winter began with 70 percent of the region abnormally dry or in drought and ended with about 22 percent affected. Southeast Michigan was the only region in the Midwest to have drought conditions worsen during winter, and those degradations were isolated to only a few counties.

Northeast

As summarized by the Northeast Regional Climate Center, February and winter were unusually warm in the Northeast and featured below-normal snowfall. The Northeast had its fourth warmest and seventh driest February since 1895. Winter 2022-23 was the warmest winter since recordkeeping began for the Northeast. The region picked up 10.02 inches of precipitation during winter, which was 102 percent of normal. The USDM from January 31 showed less than 1 percent of the Northeast in moderate drought and 3 percent as abnormally dry. During February, moderate drought eased and abnormal dryness contracted on New York's Long Island, while abnormal dryness expanded in eastern West Virginia, western/central Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania. Pockets of abnormal dryness also persisted in central New York, southern New Jersey, and southern Maryland. The USDM from February 28 showed 6 percent of the Northeast as abnormally dry.

High Plains

As summarized by the High Plains Regional Climate Center, February temperatures were, for the most part, near to below normal for the region. For the southern part of the region, temperatures were close to normal, due in part to a cold start, while the rest of the month was predominantly warmer than normal. This led plants to begin blooming much earlier than expected. The plants that have bloomed are highly susceptible to freezing temperatures that may still occur. Precipitation was spotty this past month; however, the precipitation that did occur was well above normal. Both ends of the spectrum occurred this month with near-record dryness and wetness. Snow continued to pile up in the Dakotas, Wyoming, and parts of Nebraska, leading to numerous impacts. With the conclusion of February, the meteorological winter has ended. In a complete turnaround from last year, many places recorded near-record winter precipitation and snowfall.

Drought improvement continued into February in response to the significant wetness this winter. While conditions did slightly deteriorate this past month, it was very isolated. Overall, there was a 2.4 percent decrease in D0 to D4 (abnormally dry to exceptional drought conditions). The continuous onslaught of winter storms greatly improved the drought situation across the central and northern parts of the region. Both South Dakota and Wyoming observed a nearly 11 percent decrease in D2 to D4 (severe to exceptional drought) this past month, while Kansas experienced an 11 percent reduction in D0-D4. Elsewhere in the region, other improvements and degradation were observed.

West

As summarized by the Western Regional Climate Center, colder- and drier-than-normal conditions persisted across the western U.S. during February 2023 as high pressure anchored offshore allowed cold air surges to move south into the West from interior Canada. The coldest temperatures occurred in southern Idaho, northeastern Nevada, central and eastern Utah, and western Wyoming. Alaska was cooler and wetter than normal while Hawaii was warmer than normal with near-normal to wetter-than-normal conditions.

With a few exceptions, the western U.S was drier than normal during February while cold temperatures allowed what precipitation did occur to fall as snow. In 78 years of record keeping, Halfway, Oregon observed its fourth driest February on record, with 0.55 inch of rainfall (1.53 inches below normal). With 70 years of records, Hoqiuam, Washington observed its ninth driest February on record, measuring 3.65 inches of precipitation (3 inches below normal). Several locations in California, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, and New Mexico were wetter than average. For example, Sasabe, Arizona measured 2.5 inches of precipitation (1.34 inches above normal), good for its seventh wettest February in 52 years of records.

Snowpack conditions at the end of February are well above normal (more than 150 percent of normal) across the southern tier of the western U.S. with near- to slightly below-normal conditions in the northern tier. The lowest snowpacks (less than 50% of normal) occurred in the northern Sangre de Christo Range in Colorado and the eastern Gila Mountains in New Mexico. Snowpacks in California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah now exceed their annual peak values, in many cases by 125-200%.

Drought remains widespread throughout the western U.S.; however, compared to one year ago, there continued to be reductions in drought area (75 percent compared to 96 percent in late September). Substantially less area was in extreme to exceptional drought (3 percent compared to 24 percent). Extreme to exceptional drought remained in central Oregon, north central Montana, eastern New Mexico, southern Nevada, south central Utah, and far southeastern Wyoming.

Hawaii: February 2023 brought near-normal to above-normal precipitation and warmer-than-normal temperatures to Hawaii. Drought conditions were eliminated throughout the state, marking a tremendous improvement from October when over 97% of the state was experiencing drought. Lihui, on Kauai, observed its sixth wettest February in 73 years of records with 8.67 inches of rainfall (5.04 inches above normal). Lihui also experienced its warmest February on record with a mean temperature of 74.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Fahrenheit above normal). On Hawaii (the Big Island), Hilo measured 26.82 inches of rainfall (16.6 inches above normal), making February its 5th wettest since records began 74 years ago. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were slightly warmer than normal (1-2 degrees Fahrenheit) to the north and southwest of Hawaii, with anomalies of 0.5 to 1 degree below normal to the east and southeast of the islands.

Alaska: February brought anomalous precipitation to Alaska and near-normal temperatures overall. Adding to an already snowy winter even by AK standards, Anchorage had its fifth snowiest February with 32.4 inches and Juneau its third snowiest February with 46.5 inches of snowfall. While Hatcher's Pass in the Talkeetna Mountains was buried with its third deepest snowpack in 20 years, Girdwood in the Chugach Mountains remained below normal with 66% of normal snowpack, making this the 6th lowest snowpack in 45 years. Ketchikan, Alaska tied its sixth wettest February since records began 96 years ago, measuring 23.22 inches of precipitation (11.42 inches above normal). Dry conditions plagued the interior, with Tanana (101 years of records) and Northway (81 years of records) measuring zero precipitation (0.44 and 0.24 inches below normal, respectively). No extreme hot or cold monthly mean temperatures were observed during February. Bering Sea ice was typical of the long-term average, coming within approximately 50 miles of the Pribilof Islands before beginning its northward retreat.

Additional Resources


Citing This Report

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Monthly Drought Report for February 2023, published online March 2023, retrieved on July 18, 2024 from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/drought/202302.