Issued 11 December 2020

November 2020 Palmer Z-Index
U.S. Percent Area Wet or Dry January 1996 - November 2020
November 2020 /monitoring-content/sotc/drought/2020/11/ut-p-reg042dv00elem01-01112020.gif

Please note that the values presented in this report are based on preliminary data. They will change when the final data are processed, but will not be replaced on these pages.

National Drought Highlights

  • A file containing the national monthly percent area severely dry and wet from 1900 to present is available for the severe to extreme and moderate to extreme categories.
  • Historical temperature, precipitation, and Palmer drought data from 1895 to present for climate divisions, states, and regions in the contiguous U.S. are available at the Climate Division: Temperature-Precipitation-Drought Data page. These filenames begin with "climdiv".
  • U.S. Drought Monitor information is currently unavailable.

Detailed Drought Overview

The very active atmospheric circulation over North America during November 2020 consisted of several shortwave troughs and closed lows moving through the jet stream flow. These Pacific weather systems penetrated an upper-level ridge over the West early in the month. The shortwave troughs and closed lows interacted with the ridge in a complicated dance which shifted the longwave trough/ridge pattern back and forth across the CONUS as the month wore on. When averaged across the month, the highly meridional day-to-day fluctuations averaged each other out, essentially flattening the upper-level jet stream pattern into a zonal pattern with high pressure anomalies dominating. Surface lows and fronts moving in the flow were mostly Pacific fronts with milder air and an occasional Canadian front with colder air. The Pacific fronts brought precipitation to parts of the West, but upper-level ridging inhibited much of the precipitation with only a few areas having above-normal precipitation for the month. Some of the fronts and surface lows tapped Gulf of Mexico moisture to give parts of the central Plains and Midwest above-normal precipitation, and some drew in Gulf and Atlantic moisture to spread above-normal precipitation across Florida to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Tropical Storm Eta contributed to the precipitation in the Southeast at mid-month. But with high pressure anomalies dominating, most of the CONUS averaged warmer and drier than normal.

During the winter half of the year, evapotranspiration (ET) decreases as sun angle lowers, temperatures cool, and vegetation largely goes dormant. But the potential for increased ET (especially the evaporation part) can still happen if temperatures are much above normal (and above freezing), the ground hasn't frozen yet, and relative humidities are low (colder air can hold less water vapor). During November 2020, above-normal temperatures and below-normal relative humidities contributed to above-normal potential evaporation (PE) (as seen by such indices as the EDDI), especially across the Southwest, central Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. The high PE exacerbated drought conditions for the areas that had below-normal precipitation (as seen, for example, by the Palmer Z Index and SPEI). The high PE and low precipitation further dried soils (as seen in satellite observations of soil moisture [SMOS; SPoRT LIS 0-10 cm depth, 0-40 cm depth, 0-100 cm depth, 0-200 cm depth, RSM; NASA GRACE surface soil moisture and root zone soil moisture], field reports [USDA NASS reports], and models [VIC, CPC, NLDAS, and Leaky Bucket]) and stressed vegetation (VegDRI, QuickDRI, VHI, NESDIS stressed and healthy vegetation). This was especially true across the West and Plains, but also (in some indicators) parts of the Midwest and Northeast. Many of the streams and groundwater levels (GRACE satellite estimates, USGS observations) were low in these areas. Western mountain snowpack was low, especially in the Southwest and southern to central Rockies (SNOTEL SWE [Snow Water Equivalent] values for stations and basinwide), and reservoirs were low in these areas as well as Oregon. Dozens of large wildfires continued to burn across the West, with large wildfires developing during the last half of the month in the Plains and Appalachians (wildfire maps for November 1, 6, 11, 19, 27, 30); nearly 8.9 million acres have burned nationwide so far this year, about 2.3 million more than the ten-year average, according to a November 27 National Interagency Coordination Center report. Reports received from the CoCoRaHS Condition Monitoring Resource (for November 3-9, 10-16, 17-23, and 24-30) included dry wells, crop and livestock issues (reduced pasture, less water), and fires as major concerns.

As a result of these conditions, drought or abnormal dryness expanded or intensified across much of the Southwest and Plains and parts of the Midwest and Southeast. Drought or abnormal dryness contracted in parts of the Northwest and Northeast, Hawaii, and other parts of the Midwest. Drought expansion exceeded contraction with the USDM-based national moderate-to-exceptional drought footprint across the CONUS rising from 45.1 percent at the end of October to 48.0 percent at the end of November (from 37.9 percent to 40.2 percent for the 50 States and Puerto Rico). According to the Palmer Drought Index, which goes back to the beginning of the 20th century, about 37.7 percent of the CONUS was in moderate to extreme drought at the end of November, a slight increase compared to the end of October.

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Drought conditions at the end of November, as depicted on the December 1, 2020 USDM map, included the following core drought and abnormally dry areas:

Palmer Drought Index

The Palmer drought indices measure the balance between moisture demand (evapotranspiration driven by temperature) and moisture supply (precipitation). The Palmer Z Index depicts moisture conditions for the current month, while the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) depict the current month's cumulative moisture conditions integrated over the last several months. While both the PDSI and PHDI indices show long-term moisture conditions, the PDSI depicts meteorological drought while the PHDI depicts hydrological drought. The PDSI map may show less severe and extensive drought (as well as wet spell conditions) in some parts of the country than the PHDI map because the meteorological conditions that produce drought and wet spell conditions are not as long-lasting as the hydrological impacts.

November 2020 Palmer Z-Index
November 2020 PHDI

Used together, the Palmer Z Index and PHDI maps show that short-term drought occurred across much of the Southwest to Great Plains, Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys, Northeast, and parts of the Midwest, expanding and intensifying long-term dry conditions in the West and Northeast, and contracting long-term wet conditions in parts of the Midwest and South to Southeast (PHDI maps for November compared to October). Short-term wet conditions in southern Florida and the Mid-Atlantic introduced, expanded or intensified long-term wet conditions in those regions.

Standardized Precipitation Index

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) measures moisture supply. The SPI maps here show the spatial extent of anomalously wet and dry areas at time scales ranging from 1 month to 24 months.

November 2020 SPI
October-November 2020 SPI
September-November 2020 SPI
June-November 2020 SPI

The SPI maps illustrate how moisture conditions have varied considerably through time and space over the last two years. Dry conditions are evident across large parts of the West (except the Northwest) at the 1- to 12-month time scales and the southern to central Rockies at 24 months. Parts of the Pacific Northwest are dry at 3 to 24 months. Much of the central to northern Plains are dry at 1 to 12 months. Much of the southern Plains is dry at 1 to 2 months, and the southern High Plains (west Texas) to central High Plains (eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming) are dry at the 2 to 24-month time scales. Southern Texas is dry at the 2- and 24-month time scales. Much of Iowa (especially western Iowa) is dry at 3 to 12 months. Parts of the southern Great Lakes are dry at 1 and 3-12 months. Much of the Northeast is dry at 6-9 months and parts are dry at 1, 3, and 12 months. The Mid-Atlantic and southern Florida regions are wet at all time scales; most of the country east of the Rockies is wet at 24 months; wet conditions dominate the Great Lakes and Lower Mississippi Valley to Gulf of Mexico and Mid-Atlantic coasts at 6 to 12 months.

March-November 2020 SPI
December 2019-November 2020 SPI
December 2018-November 2020 SPI

Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

The SPI measures water supply (precipitation), while the SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) measures the combination of water supply (precipitation) and water demand (evapotranspiration as computed from temperature). Warmer temperatures tend to increase evapotranspiration, which generally makes droughts more intense.

November 2020 continued a trend of very warm temperatures across much of the CONUS. The November warmth, combined with record heat from the spring through summer, gave several states a record hot September-November and June-November. California had a record warm September-November and June-November. Other states having a record warm June-November include Nevada, New Mexico, and Arizona. These and other states had record warmth during other time periods in 2020 as well. Precipitation for September-November, June-November, January-November, December-November, and other time periods in 2020 was below normal to record dry in these areas.

The combination of hot and dry conditions resulted in a much more severe SPEI than SPI in parts of the West for November, October-November (SPEI vs. SPI), September-November (SPEI vs. SPI), June-November (SPEI vs. SPI), March-November (SPEI vs. SPI), January-November (SPEI vs. SPI), December-November (SPEI vs. SPI), and other time periods in 2020.

For some states and time periods, the record dryness and heat resulted in a record dry SPI as well as SPEI, with the SPEI value much drier than the SPI value. For other states or time periods, the SPI was not record dry but the record heat made the SPEI a record.

The December 2019-November 2020 SPEI for New Mexico tied with December 1955-November 1956 as record driest.

The combination of extreme to record heat and extreme to record dryness, resulting in record dry SPEI values, was a contributing factor to the rapid development and spread of exceptional drought on the USDM this year.

Regionally, the West has had record warmth and near-record dryness during several time periods this summer. The regional PHDI for November 2020 (-4.94) has reached a level comparable to November 2002 (-5.04) and is approaching the record dry November value in 1977 (-5.81) — these are the only two Novembers with a drier PHDI. December-November temperatures across the West have shown a significant warming trend since the 1980s. Overall precipitation for December-November shows large multi-year swings from wet to dry, but no significant long-term trend. The increasing temperature trend, however, means more evapotranspiration is occurring than before and this makes the dry spells, when they happen, result in increasingly more intense droughts.

The persistent warmer-than-normal temperatures for most of the last nine years across the West has made the SPEI more extreme than the SPI for those dry areas in the West at the longer time scales (SPEI maps for last 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72 months) (SPI maps for last 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72 months).

Regional Discussion

Hawaii

November 2020 was mostly drier than normal over Hawaii, with a few wetter-than-normal areas for November and October-November. Drier-than-normal conditions dominated over the last 3 to 8 months. A mixed anomaly pattern returned at the 9- to 24-month time scales, where dry conditions were more often found on windward sides of the islands and wetter-than-normal conditions on the lee sides. Wet conditions dominated at 36 months with a mixed anomaly pattern at longer time scales (last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 months) (climate engine model percent of normal precipitation map for the last month). Above-normal monthly streamflow dominated on many islands. A Drought Information Statement issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu in mid-November indicated that poor vegetative health, agricultural and hydrological drought impacts were being experienced. One issued in early December noted that enhanced trade wind rainfall during the second half of November brought drought relief and improving streamflow, especially to the windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui County. Drought and abnormal dryness contracted across much of Hawaii. The statewide moderate to extreme drought area shrank from 71.8 percent at the end of October to 22.6 percent by the end of November.

Alaska

November 2020 was near to drier than normal in the Southeast Interior and Northeast Gulf sections of Alaska, and wetter than normal across the rest of the state. Dryness was widespread across the interior and panhandle sections at the 2-month time scale, and especially notable in the south central coastal, southeast interior, and panhandle sections at the 3-month time scale, and continued widespread at the 4- to 5-month time scales. The western and southern coastal areas were drier than normal and the interior and southern panhandle sections wetter than normal at the 6- to 9-month time scales. Drier-than-normal conditions were limited to the southern coastal, Aleutian, and northwest sections at 11 to 12 months, and from the Aleutians to panhandle at longer time scales (low elevation station precipitation anomaly maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 months) (high elevation SNOTEL station precipitation maps for last 1, 2, and 12 months, and SNOTEL basin maps for the last 2 months) (gridded precipitation percentile maps for the last 1, 3, and 11 months) (climate division precipitation rank maps for the last 1, 3, 6, 11, 12 months) (Leaky Bucket model precipitation percentile map). November was warmer than normal across the western and northern portions of the state and cooler than normal over the panhandle and southeast interior sections. By 3 months, warmer-than-normal temperatures spread across most of Alaska with near to cooler-than-normal temperatures in the panhandle, and this pattern persisted to the last 6 months. Warmer-than-normal conditions retreated to the west coast at the 11- to 12-month time scale with cooler-than-normal temperatures extending from the panhandle to the interior portions (low elevation station temperature maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 12 months) (gridded temperature percentile maps for the last 1, 3, and 11 months) (climate division temperature rank maps for the last 1, 3, 6, 11, 12 months) (Leaky Bucket model temperature percentile map). End-of-November snow pack was below normal in some areas and above normal in other areas. Modeled soil moisture showed drier-than-normal conditions in southern coastal, western coastal, and northeastern areas, while streamflow was mostly near to above normal. Moderate drought disappeared in November but abnormal dryness persisted in the northwest and south central coastal areas. Abnormal dryness continued across 11.1 percent of the state on the December 1st USDM map.

Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

November 2020 was drier than normal across northern portions of Puerto Rico (PR) (especially in the north central to northwest sections) and across St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI); the month was wetter than normal across the rest of PR and the USVI. Drier-than-normal conditions dominated PR by 3 months, but wetter-than-normal conditions returned at the 5- to 6-month time scales, while the USVI pattern continued at wetter than normal in the north and drier than normal in the south. By the 8-month time scale, it was drier than normal across the USVI and eastern PR and, by 9 months, wetter than normal over central to western portions of PR. Wetter-than-normal conditions dominated most of PR by the 11- to 12-month time scale while the USVI continued drier than normal. It was mostly drier than normal across the USVI and PR at the 24 and 36 months, but wetter than normal at longer time scales (radar-based precipitation anomaly estimates for the last 1, 2, 3, 6, 11, 12 months) (low elevation station precipitation maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 months). (climate engine model percent of normal precipitation map for November).

Root zone analyses indicated that soil conditions continued dry along the immediate southwest and northwest coasts of PR. There were some low streams in western PR but most streams were near to above normal. Abnormal dryness dotted PR on the December 1st USDM map where short-term precipitation and streamflow were low, while on the USVI USDM map, St. Croix was abnormally dry and St. Thomas and St. John continued free of drought and abnormal dryness.

CONUS State Precipitation Ranks

November 2020 was drier than normal across much of the CONUS, but especially in the Southwest, northern Plains, and southern Plains to Tennessee Valley. Seventeen states in the West, Plains, South, Midwest, and Northeast had a precipitation rank in the driest third of the 126-year historical record for November, including North Dakota which ranked eleventh driest.

September-November was also drier than normal across much of the CONUS, but especially in the Southwest and northern Plains where record dryness occurred. Fifteen states in the West, Plains, and Northeast had a precipitation rank in the driest third of the historical record, including seven in the top ten driest category — Arizona and Utah (both of which were driest on record), California and North Dakota (both third driest), Nevada (fifth driest), and Colorado and Nebraska (both ninth driest).

A similar precipitation anomaly pattern could be seen for June-November — parts of the Midwest to Northeast were drier than normal, but the driest areas were much of the Plains and especially West where record dryness was evident. Twenty-one states in these regions had a precipitation rank in the driest third of the historical record, including seven in the top ten driest category — Arizona, California, Nevada, and Utah (all of which were driest on record); New Mexico (second driest); Colorado (fifth driest); and Nebraska (ninth driest).

January-November had a similar precipitation anomaly pattern with drier than normal conditions across the West, Plains, and Northeast, and record dryness in parts of the West and High Plains. Twenty states had a precipitation rank in the driest third of the historical record, including eight in the top ten driest category — Utah (driest on record); California, Nevada, and Colorado (third driest); Arizona and New Mexico (both fourth driest); Wyoming (fifth driest); and North Dakota (tenth driest).

The precipitation anomaly patterns for December 2019-November 2020 and January-November were very similar — drier than normal across the West, Plains, and Northeast, with record dryness in parts of the West. Sixteen states had a precipitation rank in the driest third of the historical record, including seven in the top ten driest category — Utah (driest on record); Colorado (third driest); New Mexico and Wyoming (both fourth driest); Nevada and Arizona (both sixth driest); and North Dakota (tenth driest).

Agricultural Belts

During November 2020, the Primary Hard Red Winter Wheat agricultural belt was mostly drier and warmer than normal, with a wetter-than-normal streak in the middle. The month ranked as the 53rd driest and fourth warmest November, regionwide, in the 1895-2020 record.

October marks the beginning of the growing season for the Primary Hard Red Winter Wheat belt. October-November 2020 was mostly drier and warmer than normal. The period ranked as the 36th driest and 37th warmest October-November, regionwide, in the 1895-2020 record.

As of December 1, drought affected approximately 47 percent of spring wheat production, 39 percent of winter wheat production, 47 percent of cattle inventory, 36 percent of corn production, 40 percent of hay acreage, and 29 percent of soybean production. Except for winter wheat, these were all increases compared to the end of October.

As reported by the USDA, at the end of November, topsoil moisture was short or very short (dry or very dry) across 50 percent or more of California (75 percent), Utah (81 percent), New Mexico (82 percent), Colorado (83 percent), Wyoming (69 percent), Montana (54 percent), North Dakota (69 percent), South Dakota (53 percent), Nebraska (65 percent), Kansas (51 percent), Texas (61 percent), and New Hampshire 79 percent). Subsoil moisture was short or very short across 80 percent of California, 82 percent of Colorado, 63 percent of Idaho, 53 percent of Iowa, 58 percent of Kansas, 60 percent of Montana, 71 percent of Nebraska, 50 percent of Nevada, 87 percent of New Hampshire, 89 percent of New Mexico, 65 percent of North Dakota, 50 percent of Oklahoma, 66 percent of Oregon, 50 percent of Rhode Island, 61 percent of South Dakota, 63 percent of Texas, 72 percent of Utah, and 79 percent of Wyoming. A fifth or more of winter wheat was in poor to very poor condition in Colorado (38 percent), Texas (34 percent), Nebraska (26 percent), Kansas (22 percent), and Oregon (20 percent). Nationwide, 38 percent of the topsoil and 43 percent of the subsoil were short or very short of moisture, and 18 percent of the winter wheat crop was in poor to very poor condition. These national figures were the same or less than a month ago. The integrated U.S. Winter Wheat Condition Index was at its lowest point for this time of year since the 2012 drought.

U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands

The NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) offices, the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center (PEAC), and partners provided reports on conditions across the Pacific Islands.

In the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) (maps — Federated States of Micronesia [FSM], Northern Mariana Islands, Marshall Islands [RMI], Republic of Palau, American Samoa, basinwide), November 2020 was drier-than-normal in the southern FSM (Kapingamarangi), Palau, and Saipan. It was near to wetter than normal at Pago Pago (American Samoa) and in the RMI, Guam, and the rest of the FSM.

Monthly precipitation amounts were below the monthly minimum needed to meet most water needs (4 inches in the Marianas and Pago Pago, and 8 inches elsewhere) at Kapingamarangi (in southern FSM), due mostly to the ongoing La Niña. November precipitation was above the monthly minimums at the rest of the USAPI stations in Micronesia and American Samoa. The 4- and 8-inch thresholds are important because, if monthly precipitation falls below the threshold, then water shortages or drought become a concern.

The tropical Pacific climatology can experience extremes in precipitation, from very low precipitation during the dry season to very high precipitation during the wet season. This can result in monthly normal precipitation values that are well above the monthly minimum needed to meet most water needs. This was the case during November 2020. The monthly precipitation was enough to end or stay out of drought, but still was below normal because the normals were so high. This happened at Koror (November 2020 precipitation 9.97 inches, November monthly normal mean 11.90 inches) and Saipan (November 2020 precipitation 4.95 inches, November monthly normal mean 5.92 inches).

Even with above-normal precipitation for October and November across Micronesia and for September in eastern Micronesia, many stations were still drier than normal for the last 11 and 12 months.

Pacific Island Percent of 1981-2010 Normal Median Precipitation
Station Name Dec
2019
Jan
2020
Feb
2020
Mar
2020
Apr
2020
May
2020
Jun
2020
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Sep
2020
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Dec-
Nov
Chuuk177%81%37%64%65%116%98%65%95%167%92%127%97%
Guam NAS29%75%125%64%98%240%55%81%86%87%146%140%83%
Kapingamarangi67%83%52%127%125%33%43%40%36%9%15%31%51%
Koror88%20%123%63%146%205%81%55%164%62%170%88%95%
Kosrae62%51%158%71%171%164%161%96%87%114%149%177%101%
Kwajalein99%112%156%66%145%92%88%89%54%144%140%115%104%
Lukonor91%27%33%130%103%107%97%83%81%134%105%102%81%
Majuro114%90%163%81%148%156%117%115%85%101%176%112%120%
Pago Pago140%163%273%77%166%72%389%201%179%228%201%160%155%
Pohnpei132%57%85%69%125%125%79%62%98%120%121%169%103%
Saipan95%60%102%78%19%46%54%57%68%74%104%88%72%
Yap116%23%63%25%80%105%154%51%72%81%104%196%88%
Pacific Island Precipitation (Inches)
Station Name Dec
2019
Jan
2020
Feb
2020
Mar
2020
Apr
2020
May
2020
Jun
2020
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Sep
2020
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Dec-
Nov
Chuuk19.91"8.20"2.69"5.29"8.13"13.09"11.45"7.77"12.20"19.61"10.57"13.45"132.36"
Guam NAS1.46"2.99"3.79"1.33"2.47"8.16"3.40"8.26"12.68"10.96"16.75"10.33"82.58"
Kapingamarangi6.55"7.60"4.84"14.52"17.06"3.93"5.87"5.59"2.94"0.86"1.19"2.83"73.78"
Koror9.86"2.02"10.50"4.66"10.70"24.24"14.21"10.13"22.13"7.28"20.11"9.97"145.81"
Kosrae10.06"8.50"20.45"11.33"29.87"29.07"23.64"14.26"12.41"16.16"16.25"24.52"216.52"
Kwajalein6.62"3.53"4.12"1.54"7.64"6.15"6.09"8.82"5.24"15.51"15.64"12.95"93.85"
Lukonor10.23"2.26"2.93"12.06"11.63"12.52"11.34"13.18"11.35"13.63"11.83"9.23"122.19"
Majuro13.03"6.93"11.19"5.32"13.95"15.78"12.83"12.85"9.97"11.25"22.35"14.99"150.44"
Pago Pago17.93"21.77"32.73"8.19"15.56"6.96"20.76"11.17"9.63"14.90"18.63"16.25"194.48"
Pohnpei21.17"7.52"8.16"9.05"23.03"24.91"11.70"9.53"13.99"15.02"18.49"25.13"187.7"
Saipan3.64"1.53"2.63"1.47"0.50"1.10"1.96"5.11"8.88"7.46"11.08"4.95"50.31"
Yap9.89"1.46"3.28"1.14"4.50"8.22"18.56"7.71"10.61"10.98"12.71"17.27"106.33"
Pacific Island 1981-2010 Normal Median Precipitation (Inches)
Station Name Dec
2019
Jan
2020
Feb
2020
Mar
2020
Apr
2020
May
2020
Jun
2020
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Sep
2020
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Dec-
Nov
Chuuk11.25"10.10"7.25"8.32"12.47"11.30"11.66"11.98"12.86"11.71"11.51"10.61"136.77"
Guam NAS5.11"4.01"3.03"2.07"2.53"3.40"6.18"10.14"14.74"12.66"11.44"7.38"99.09"
Kapingamarangi9.84"9.15"9.27"11.43"13.64"12.08"13.78"14.15"8.13"9.93"8.19"9.27"145.85"
Koror11.16"10.18"8.56"7.44"7.32"11.83"17.48"18.53"13.50"11.77"11.84"11.39"152.90"
Kosrae16.11"16.67"12.93"16.06"17.51"17.75"14.64"14.91"14.22"14.22"10.94"13.83"213.87"
Kwajalein6.66"3.16"2.64"2.35"5.26"6.72"6.93"9.87"9.74"10.74"11.18"11.28"90.41"
Lukonor11.27"8.41"8.93"9.26"11.31"11.69"11.65"15.93"14.04"10.15"11.32"9.08"151.36"
Majuro11.39"7.74"6.88"6.58"9.42"10.11"11.01"11.17"11.69"11.17"12.73"13.44"125.25"
Pago Pago12.84"13.34"12.00"10.68"9.39"9.66"5.33"5.55"5.38"6.53"9.26"10.14"125.57"
Pohnpei16.08"13.18"9.55"13.17"18.41"19.96"14.81"15.43"14.26"12.55"15.27"14.83"182.36"
Saipan3.85"2.53"2.59"1.89"2.63"2.38"3.62"8.91"13.13"10.09"10.62"5.61"70.25"
Yap8.51"6.39"5.19"4.56"5.63"7.85"12.04"15.08"14.82"13.50"12.18"8.83"120.31"

As measured by percent of normal precipitation, Kapingamarangi and Saipan were drier than normal in the short term (November and the last 3 months [September-November 2020]) and long term (year to date [January-November] and last 12 months [ December 2019-November 2020]). Koror was near normal for the last 3 months but drier than normal for the other 3 time periods. Chuuk, Guam, Lukonor, and Yap were wetter than normal in the short term and drier than normal in the long term. Kosrae, Kwajalein, Majuro, Pago Pago, and Pohnpei were near to wetter than normal at all 4 time scales.

Based on percent of normal average (instead of normal median values), in the Marianas Islands, precipitation during the last four months was generally wetter than normal at southern stations and drier than normal at northern stations (Saipan). It continued drier than normal in the north with a mixed precipitation anomaly pattern in the south at the 5- to 11-month time scales. Drier-than-normal conditions dominated at longer time scales (percent of normal precipitation maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 months). In the Marshall Islands, wetter-than-normal conditions dominated at most time scales, with some dryness in the southwest (percent of normal precipitation maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 months).

According to the November 30th USDM produced for the USAPI, exceptional (D4) drought continued at Kapingamarangi (southern FSM). The rest of the stations in Micronesia, and Tutuila in American Samoa, were free of drought and abnormal dryness. The National Weather Service office in Guam issued three Drought Information Statements for the drought in November (on November 13, 19, and 26) discussing the conditions in the USAPI. Severe drought impacts continued during November in the southern FSM. As noted in the November 26 Drought Information Statement: A task force was recently sent down to Kapingamarangi to (1) bring supplies and (2) assess the conditions. The task force reported taro patches and coconuts were half damaged while banana and breadfruit were fully damaged. It was determined the local water supply was unsafe to drink and saltwater had infiltrated the wells. Residents, especially the elderly, were afflicted with gastrointestinal illness and skin sores. It was estimated that the current food and water supply would last about three to four weeks. Morale amongst the residents was still moderate to high.

The last one to 12 months have been especially dry at some of the islands in Micronesia (based on monthly and seasonal precipitation ranks) and the last 5 to 12 months have been dry at others. November 2020 was the fifth driest November in a 32-year record at Kapingamarangi. The eight time periods from December-November through July-November were the driest on record at the station, August-November and September-November were the second driest, and October-November was fourth driest. Saipan had the second or third driest December-November through May-November, and fourth driest June-November through August-November. Lukonor had the seventh driest December-November. Nukuoro ranked seventh driest for August-November and eighth driest for July-November (out of 37 years of data). Pingelap ranked ninth driest for August-November (35 years). Woleai had the eight driest January-November and ninth driest December-November (25 years). Jaluit had the fourth driest June-November, sixth driest May-November, and seventh driest July-November (36 or 37 years).

The following analysis of historical data for the USAPI stations in the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCN-D) dataset, augmented with fill-in data from the 1981-2010 Normals, helps put the current data into historical perspective by computing ranks based on the period of record. The table below lists the precipitation ranks for November 2020, June-November 2020 (last 6 months), and December 2019-November 2020 (the last 12 months). Some stations have a long period of record and their dataset is fairly complete, while other stations have a shorter period of record and the dataset has some missing data.

November 2020 USAPI Precipitation Ranks (1 = driest)
StationNovember 2020Jun-Nov 2020Dec 2019-Nov 2020Period of Record
RankYearsRankYearsRankYears
Ailinglapalap2637363628341981-2020
Chuuk4670326922691951-2020
Fananu8835--22003-2020
Guam4264156413631957-2020
Jaluit14374369341981-2020
Kapingamarangi5321191181962-2020
Koror3170326830681951-2020
Kosrae5153324022331954-2020
Kwajalein4769386932681952-2020
Lukonor193713247241981-2020
Majuro4567536752661954-2020
Mili2437323533331981-2020
Nukuoro1037123615351981-2020
Pago Pago4755555554541966-2020
Pingelap2836935--321981-2020
Pohnpei6770336936691951-2020
Saipan16404402311981-2020
Ulithi3738113613331981-2020
Utirik--18--8--41985-2020
Woleai323714289251968-2020
Wotje3236333530321981-2020
Yap6670406915691951-2020
Map of USAPINovember 2020 Precipitation (Inches)
Map of USAPI November 2020 Percent of Normal Precipitation
Map of USAPI September 2020-November 2020 Percent of Normal Precipitation
Map of USAPI January-November 2020 Percent of Normal Precipitation
Map of USAPI December 2019-November 2020 Percent of Normal Precipitation

SPI values for seven time periods for Pacific Islands, computed by the Honolulu NWS office.

SPI values for seven time periods for Pacific Islands

NOAA Regional Climate Centers

More information, provided by the NOAA Regional Climate Centers and others, can be found below.

Southeast

As noted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, temperatures were well above average across much of the Southeast region during November and precipitation was highly variable with numerous wet and dry extremes recorded. The driest locations were found across portions of Alabama, northwestern and southwestern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, western North Carolina, southwestern Virginia, and north-central Puerto Rico. Monthly precipitation totals ranged from 50 to 25 percent of normal in these areas. Arecibo Observatory, PR (1980-2020) and Wise 1 SE, VA (1955-2020) observed their second and third driest November on record, with only 2.06 and 1.25 inches (52 and 32 mm) of precipitation, respectively. In contrast, the wettest locations were found across much of the Carolinas, Virginia, and the Florida Peninsula, as well as portions of central Georgia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Drought conditions (D1 and greater) were not observed across the Southeast region during November. However, abnormally dry (D0) conditions expanded across portions of Georgia and southern Alabama during the month. In addition, two small pockets of abnormally dry conditions developed in central Puerto Rico by the end of the month. Periods of warm, dry weather during November allowed farmers in Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and the Florida Panhandle to harvest their cotton, peanut, and soybean crops. Some farmers in central Georgia continued to find boll rot on their cotton crop, which was caused by excessive rainfall during autumn. Row crop harvesting and cover crop planting were hindered in areas that received above-average precipitation, but the abundant rainfall was beneficial for the growth of winter grazing.

South

As explained by the Southern Regional Climate Center, November temperatures were above normal across the Southern region and precipitation values were primarily below normal. The region as a whole experienced its ninth warmest and 21st driest November on record. Parts of eastern, central, and western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, northern Louisiana, eastern, southern, central, and western Oklahoma, northern, eastern, central, southern, and western Texas, and most of Arkansas received 50 percent or less of normal precipitation. Parts of western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, southwestern Arkansas, northwestern Louisiana, central and western Oklahoma, and northern, eastern, southern, and western Texas received 25 percent or less of normal precipitation, while parts of western and southern Texas received 5 percent or less of normal precipitation. In contrast, parts of southwestern Mississippi, southeastern Louisiana, and southern Texas received 110 percent or more of normal precipitation.

At the end of November, drought conditions deteriorated considerably across the Southern region. Exceptional drought conditions expanded and persisted across western and northwestern Texas, with new areas developing in southern Texas. Extreme drought conditions persisted across parts of Oklahoma and Texas, with new areas developing or expanding across western and southern Texas. However, extreme drought conditions improved slightly across western Oklahoma and northern Texas. Severe drought classifications expanded across western Oklahoma as well as northern, western, southern, central, and eastern Texas. Moderate drought classifications expanded or developed across southern Oklahoma, central and southwestern Arkansas, northwestern Mississippi, northwestern Louisiana, and much of Texas. However, parts of northern and western Oklahoma as well as northwestern Arkansas saw improvement, with moderate drought conditions shrinking or even being removed. There was an increase in the overall area experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with conditions developing or expanding across central, southern, and western Arkansas, northern and southern Mississippi, western Tennessee, southeastern and northwestern Louisiana, southeastern and central Oklahoma, and north-central Texas. There was slight improvement across northern Oklahoma and southeastern Mississippi as abnormally dry conditions contracted or were eliminated.

Midwest

As described by the Midwest Regional Climate Center, November 2020 temperatures were warm across the Midwest (ranking seventh warmest for November) and regional precipitation averaged 2.17 inches (55 mm) which was 0.60 inch (15 mm) below normal. The vast majority of the region had between 50 and 150 percent of normal precipitation for the month. Only a small area in northwestern Missouri topped 150 percent of normal. Only northwestern Minnesota and parts of southern Missouri and Kentucky had less than 50 percent of normal. Most of the region had alternating swaths of slightly above or below normal precipitation. Fall precipitation totals ranged from less than 50 percent of normal in northwestern Minnesota to just over 150 percent of normal along the Mississippi River on the Iowa-Wisconsin border. Precipitation totals averaged 8.30 inches (211 mm) for September through November which was 0.93 inch (24 mm) below normal.

The decreased demand for water and well-placed precipitation led to slight decreases in drought coverage observed in the Midwest during November according to the USDM. The most prominent areas that improved were in southwestern Missouri, where drought and abnormal dryness was eliminated, and parts of western Iowa. However, extreme drought remained mostly unchanged in northwestern Iowa. Meanwhile, abnormally dry conditions and scattered moderate drought were introduced across most of Minnesota as drier conditions set in. In total, around one third of the region was either abnormally dry or in drought, with around 10 percent of the region in drought.

Drier weather across the region helped harvest activities wrap up in November. Corn and soybean harvests were ahead of the 5-year average through the first week of November, and neared completion by the third week of November according to USDA NASS. Significant progress was made across Missouri, where the soybean harvest was at 60 percent harvested at the beginning of November before nearing completion by the November 15th update. Corn and soybean harvests were above 90 percent by November 15th except for Kentucky soybeans. Of note, Wisconsin and Michigan neared completion almost a full week ahead of average due to favorable harvest weather.

Northeast

As explained by the Northeast Regional Climate Center, the Northeast had its ninth warmest November on record but the month was drier than normal with the region seeing 3.04 inches (77.22 mm) of precipitation, 79 percent of normal. Eight of the 12 Northeast states wrapped up November on the dry side of normal, with precipitation for all states ranging from 63 percent of normal in New Hampshire to 166 percent of normal in Delaware, its eighth wettest November on record. Autumn was also drier than normal in the Northeast, with the region seeing 9.88 inches (250.95 mm) of precipitation, 85 percent of normal. Nine states received below-normal precipitation, with amounts for precipitation for all states ranging from 77 percent of normal in New Hampshire to 140 percent of normal in Delaware, its eighth wettest autumn on record.

The USDM released on November 5 showed 37 percent of the Northeast in an extreme, severe, or moderate drought and 24 percent as abnormally dry. Conditions generally improved in the region during the month. For instance, severe drought eased everywhere except southeastern New Hampshire and coastal Maine and moderate drought eased in a large portion of New England. However, extreme drought lingered in southeastern New Hampshire. The USDM released on December 3 showed 21 percent of the Northeast in an extreme, severe, or moderate drought and 33 percent as abnormally dry. Drought and abnormally dry conditions continued to have impacts. During November, streamflow and groundwater levels were below normal in some drought areas. Water restrictions remained in place for numerous locations in Massachusetts and several locations in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania. As of December 2, 164 community water systems, eight municipalities, and some private well users in New Hampshire had restrictions in place. Since the start of dry conditions this spring, New Hampshire officials estimated at least 1,000 wells have gone dry, while Maine officials noted about 278 wells had gone dry. Drought conditions may have contributed to the collapse of an embankment and section of railroad track, which were located near a pond with unusually low water levels, in East Sandwich, Massachusetts. Reports of drought-related crop losses continued to come in. A farm on Martha's Vineyard in Massachusetts lost around 60 percent of its pumpkin crop due in part to drought conditions and deer. Christmas trees in Rhode Island were impacted by the drought, with one farm losing 90 percent of its saplings and another farm noting some mature trees dropping more than 50 percent of their needles. At another Rhode Island Christmas tree farm, drought-stressed trees turned yellow and hundreds of saplings were a loss, causing the farm not to open for the upcoming holiday season. The hay crop has been reduced by up to 75 percent in New Hampshire. The potato crop in northern Maine is expected to be reduced by at least 20 percent.

High Plains

As summarized by the High Plains Regional Climate Center, November was warm and dry across much of the High Plains, resulting in below-normal snowfall and the expansion and intensification of drought conditions in many areas. The majority of the region entered the winter season with depleted soil moisture, with over 50 percent of topsoil and subsoil moisture rated as short to very short in all six High Plains states, according to the December 1st USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. As soils freeze, what little moisture is available will be locked in place until spring, which is very concerning for spring planting. Drought impacts were evident throughout the region. Winter wheat was not faring well, with 38 percent of the crop in poor to very poor condition in Colorado, followed by 26 percent in Nebraska and 22 percent in Kansas. The continuation of drought conditions through the growing season resulted in poor pasture conditions in Colorado and Wyoming, which led producers to give supplemental feed to livestock this fall. Alfalfa and silage production were down in North Dakota as well. Given the lack of snow in November, the opening of the Aspen Highlands Ski Resort in Colorado was delayed, and competitive snowmobile events in North Dakota were canceled.

Persistent dryness throughout the region continued into November. For the majority of the High Plains, precipitation was less than 50 percent of normal. The only areas that received above-normal precipitation were pockets of western Wyoming and central Colorado, as well as eastern Nebraska and northeastern and central Kansas where precipitation exceeded 200 percent of normal. There were quite a few locations that ranked among the top 10 driest Novembers on record, including Casper, Wyoming and Laramie, Wyoming, which both tied for their driest (Casper period of record 1939-2020, Laramie period of record 1948-2020). Fall precipitation was abysmal across the region, contributing to the expansion and intensification of drought conditions. Grand Forks, ND, Casper, WY, and Laramie, WY had their driest falls on record, with Laramie receiving a paltry 0.11 inch (3 mm) of precipitation, which was only 4 percent of normal. Other locations ranking among the top 10 driest falls included Rawlins, WY (5th driest); Goodland, KS (5th driest); Chadron, NE (7th driest); Colorado Springs, CO (7th driest); and Williston, ND (9th driest).

Both improvements and degradations in drought conditions occurred throughout the High Plains in November. According to the USDM, the area experiencing drought (D1-D4) increased from approximately 71 percent to 76 percent over the course of the month. However, the area experiencing abnormal dryness and drought (D0-D4) actually decreased from about 98 percent to 96 percent. Drought conditions worsened across northern and central Kansas, as well as southwestern Nebraska, due to persistent dryness in these areas. Extreme drought (D3) spread across northwestern portions of Kansas and southwestern Nebraska, while severe drought (D2) and moderate drought (D1) developed in northern and central Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. D2 also spread eastward into north-central North Dakota. Conditions worsened in western Colorado as well, with exceptional drought (D4) extending further into southwestern and northern areas of the state. Meanwhile, beneficial precipitation improved conditions in a few areas of the High Plains. Heavy rains, fueled in part by Gulf moisture in place from Hurricane Zeta, fell across southern Kansas at the end of October, leading to the removal of D1 and D0. Moderate to heavy precipitation eased drought conditions in eastern Nebraska, as areas of D2 were improved to D1. Beneficial precipitation also helped improve conditions in the western High Plains, including localized areas of western Wyoming and south-central Colorado.

West

As described by the Western Regional Climate Center, the storm track continued the trend from October of favoring the northern half of the West with areas of above normal precipitation and near-normal temperatures. The wettest locations relative to normal were in Oregon east of the Cascades and northern Montana. Dryness, above normal temperatures, and further drought expansion persisted in the southern tier of the West with little-to-no precipitation for southern California, southern Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico. Wildfire concerns will continue into December for places that saw a lack of soaking rains, especially southern California.

A record shattering dry streak continues for Las Vegas, Nevada where no precipitation occurred (normal for the month is 0.36 in or 9.1 mm). At the end of November, the record for consecutive days with no measurable precipitation stands at 227 at the Las Vegas airport which is far greater than the previous record of 150 days ending July 21, 1959. There have been 18 other Novembers since 1948 with zero precipitation at Las Vegas. The dryness extended south into Arizona with Phoenix receiving zero precipitation (normal is 0.65 in or 16.5 mm) which has occurred 16 other times since 1933. Dryness was accompanied by well above-normal temperatures in Arizona and New Mexico.

For many places throughout the West the climatological start of snow accumulation in the mountains typically begins in November. At the end of November, the Cascades of Washington and Oregon, the mountains in eastern Oregon, parts of the Northern Sierra Nevada, and northern Montana all had above normal snow water equivalent (SWE). The southern Sierra Nevada and Utah were well below normal SWE. It is early in the snow season and recovery to above normal SWE can happen relatively quickly in December if the storm track shifts further south.

Drought conditions were still very present in the West at the end of November. Based on the USDM, over 75% of the area in the West was in at least moderate drought (D1) with 22% of the area in exceptional drought (D4). Exceptional drought is present in Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico. The combination of below-normal precipitation, above-normal temperatures, and lack of snowpack led to expansion of drought in California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Utah. Improvements were found in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies with drought removal in parts of Washington and Montana.

In Alaska, temperatures were well above normal for the North Slope and western coastal areas with near normal to slightly below normal temperatures for the rest of the state. Precipitation was above normal in the south-central region, western Alaska, the North Slope, and southeast Alaska, with some areas of below normal precipitation in the Interior. For the Interior, both Tanana and Northway received no precipitation; this has happened four other times since 1902 at Tanana and had never occurred before this year at Northway since records began in 1942.

For Hawaii, the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and Oahu all saw below normal precipitation. Honolulu logged 0.16 in (4.1 mm; 7% of normal) making it the 6th driest November since records began in 1940. Kahului recorded 0.25 in (6.35 mm; 11% of normal) of rainfall coming in at the 12th driest on record and had its warmest November on record at 79.3 deg F (26.3 deg C), +3.3 deg F (+1.9 deg C) above normal. At the end of November 23% of the area of Hawaii was in drought with 3% in extreme drought.

Additional Resources


Citing This Report

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Monthly Drought Report for November 2020, published online December 2020, retrieved on July 27, 2024 from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/drought/202011.