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Global Drought NarrativeOctober 2024
Global Drought Information System
This Global Drought Narrative is based on global drought indicators available at the Global Drought Information System.
Global Drought Overview
Overview: GDIS global indicators revealed beneficial precipitation fell across parts of drought-plagued South America and Africa, as well as much of Europe and Asia, during October 2024, while other parts of those continents and Australia, as well as much of North America, were dry. South America had the second driest October on record and North America the 12th driest, continent-wide (based on the 1940-2024 ECMWF ERA5 Reanalysis dataset). Relentless heat continued, with October 2024 ranking as the warmest October on record for North America and the Caribbean Islands, second warmest for South America, third warmest for Central America and Australia, and fourth warmest for Europe and the Mediterranean, based on 1910-2024 NOAA/NCEI data and ECMWF ERA5 Reanalysis data. The excessive heat increased evapotranspiration which exacerbated the drought conditions.
A significant portion of the world's agricultural lands was still suffering from low soil moisture and groundwater levels โ especially in the Americas, Africa, eastern Europe, and parts of Asia โ and satellite observations showed stressed vegetation on most continents. The GEOGLAM Crop Monitor indicated that agriculture was most threatened in parts of the Americas, Africa, Europe, southwest Russia, and southern Australia. The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNet) revealed significant food insecurity continuing in parts of Central and South America, Southwest Asia, and much of Africa.
The media organization, Earth.com, brought attention to the unusual warmth by noting that the unprecedented warmth has intensified drought conditions worldwide. Reuters noted that the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that 2023 was the driest year in more than three decades for the world's rivers, as the record-hot year underpinned a drying up of water flows and contributed to prolonged droughts in some places. Reuters added that the WMO also said glaciers that feed rivers in many countries suffered the largest loss of mass in the last five decades, warning that ice melt can threaten long-term water security for millions of people globally. The BBC reported that, according to an analysis by the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, the area of land surface affected by extreme drought has tripled since the 1980s. Forty-eight per cent of the Earth's land surface had at least one month of extreme drought last year, which is up from an average of 15% during the 1980s. The Associated Press reported that, according to the United Nations' World Food Program, months of drought in southern Africa triggered by the El Niรฑo weather phenomenon have had a devastating impact on more than 27 million people (in Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe) and caused the region's worst hunger crisis in decades. The World Food Program warned it could become a "full-scale human catastrophe." The WMO hosted a conference (Drought Resilience +10 Conference) in late September and early October that brought together about 1,000 experts, policymakers, and practitioners in the international drought community to address the escalating threat of drought and water scarcity worldwide. The conference encouraged all governments and other relevant stakeholders around the world to manage drought risks in an integrated, proactive, and prospective manner, instead of the current reactive crisis-oriented approach. This will increase drought resilience, reduce the economic costs of drought, and enable societies to better respond to and recover from drought.
Europe
Virtually all of Europe was warmer than normal in October, with the month ranking as the fourth warmest October in the 1910-2024 NOAA/NCEI temperature record, continent-wide. Western and northern parts of Europe were wetter than normal while eastern parts were near to drier than normal. Continent-wide, Europe had the 26th wettest October in the 1940-2024 ECMWF ERA5 Reanalysis precipitation record. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) maps show dry conditions in eastern and southern Europe at longer time scales (6 to 12 months). Dryness in the Mediterranean region is evident on 24- to 72-month SPI maps. Anomalous warmth has plagued Europe over extended periods, with the last 12 months (November 2023-October 2024) ranking as the warmest such period. The hot temperatures increased evapotranspiration (as seen on the Evaporative Demand Drought Index [EDDI] and Evaporative Stress Index [ESI] maps) which exacerbated the drought conditions. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) maps show much more intense and widespread drought than the SPI maps, including parts of Scandinavia, but especially in the Mediterranean and eastern Europe and out to longer time scales (1-4 years). The Mediterranean region had the fourth warmest and 38th driest October, but the hottest and 18th driest November-October (last 12 months), based on ECMWF ERA5 data. Satellite observations (GRACE) indicated depleted soil moisture continued across the eastern half of Europe, as well as along the Mediterranean coast and in Scandinavia. GRACE data also indicated depleted groundwater in these areas, except a little more widespread. Satellite observations of vegetative health (Vegetative Health Index, VHI) revealed somewhat stressed vegetation expanding across the continent, but mostly in the north and east. The European Combined Drought Indicator showed drought warnings or alerts across much of eastern Europe extending into European Russia, and the Mediterranean coastal area, with 15.4% of the EU-27 territory plus the U.K. in Warning conditions and 2.0% in Alert conditions. These values are less than last month.
According to media reports (Reuters), as top producer Spain recovers from drought due to the beneficial rains of recent months, olive oil supply in Europe is set to rise sharply in the year ahead. But just offshore, The Olive Press reported that parts of Mallorca, a Spanish island in the Mediterranean, have been put on drought pre-alert with the situation in some areas being categorized as just a level down from an emergency. On the other side of the Mediterranean, Reuters reported that months of searing heat and drought have damaged Greece's chestnut crop. Greece, one of the world's largest chestnut producers, may see a drop of 90% in output.
Asia
The October SPI maps showed parts of Asia unusually dry but large parts quite wet. The dry areas included parts of western and northern Russia, the Middle East and Turkey, and parts of India to the Amur River region. Most of Asia was unusually warm. Continent-wide, October 2024 ranked as the fifth warmest and 13th wettest October, according to NOAA/NCEI and ECMWF ERA5 records, respectively. These same areas were dry at 2- to 6-month time scales, but at longer time scales (12 to 72 months) the dry epicenter shifted to Southwest Asia and South Asia to Mongolia. Unusual warmth extended back through time, with the last 12 months (November-October) ranking second warmest and fifth wettest, continent-wide. The excessive warmth increased evapotranspiration, as seen on the EDDI and ESI maps, which made drought conditions more severe and extensive, as seen on the SPEI maps. Satellite observations (GRACE) showed low soil moisture, as well as low groundwater, across much of Southwest and Southeast Asia, northern India, parts of China and Mongolia, and much of Russia. Satellite data (VHI) revealed poor vegetative health across Southwest Asia, much of Russia, and western China to Mongolia. Drought conditions were confirmed over northern, eastern, and southwestern parts of India on the India Drought Monitor, covering about 15.1% of the nation at the end of October, which is less than last month. Drought was indicated in parts of Micronesia and the Polynesian islands south of the equator, especially at 1-6 months in Micronesia, 3-6 months in Melanesia, and 1-12 months in Polynesia, on the NIWA Island Climate Update maps.
Africa
Southern and parts of northern, eastern, and coastal western parts of Africa, as well as Madagascar, were dry during October. Monthly temperatures were warmer than normal across most of the continent. October 2024 was the tenth warmest and 25th driest October in the NOAA/NCEI and ECMWF ERA5 records, respectively. Northern Africa ranked 21st driest, Eastern Africa 14th driest, and Southern Africa 41st driest. The SPI maps show more intense and widespread dryness at longer time scales, especially in southern, western coastal, and northern areas, at 3- to 12-month time scales. ECMWF ERA5 precipitation ranks for the 12-month period, November 2023-October 2024, include 15th driest for Northern Africa, 12th driest for Southern Africa, and 29th driest for Africa continent-wide. The driest areas on the SPI maps were southern Africa (especially at the 6- to 12-month time scales) and northwestern Africa, especially the Maghreb region; dryness in these areas extended out over the last 6 years. In northwestern Africa, the dryness at 9- to 60-month time scales was more intense for the longer time scales. Record heat characterized each of the 7 time periods from May-October through November-October, continent-wide. The persistent heat increased evapotranspiration and made drought conditions more intense and widespread, with some SPEI maps showing almost all of the continent having some degree of drought for most time scales longer than 3 months. Models and satellite (GRACE) observations revealed persistent low soil moisture and groundwater in the Maghreb and adjacent northern regions, and over much of central to southern Africa. Satellite observations of vegetative health (VHI) revealed stressed vegetation over southern, northern, and coastal eastern parts of the continent, with the most severe conditions in the north and south. An analysis by the African Flood and Drought Monitor estimated 27% of the continent in drought at the end of October, which was a little less than last month, and included 7 countries in drought.
According to media reports (The Associated Press), Zambia's worst electricity blackouts in memory have been caused by a severe drought in the region that has left the critical Kariba dam with insufficient water to run its hydroelectric turbines. Kariba is the largest man-made lake in the world by volume and lies 200 kilometers (125 miles) south of Lusaka on the border between Zambia and Zimbabwe. ZimEye/Zimbabwe News reported that Zimbabwe is ramping up initiatives to assist livestock farmers following the tragic loss of over 12,500 cattle between June and September this year, primarily due to drought-related malnutrition, water shortages, and disease outbreaks. Data from the Directorate of Veterinary Services (DVS) reveals that malnutrition and insufficient drinking water were responsible for the deaths of 7,072 cattle. Scrolla noted that extreme heat and dry weather have hit South Africa's Limpopo farmers hard, with livestock dying and crops failing in the Vhembe and Mopani districts. "Cattle are dying from drought and crops are dry and dying, because there is no water," said Adam Mabunda, head of Mopani Farmers Association. Reuters reported that Namibia's Finance Minister, Iipumbu Shiimi, said the country has lowered its economic growth forecast for this year, citing a slump in demand for diamonds and a severe drought.
Australia
Southern, central, and some eastern parts of Australia were drier than average during October, while temperatures were warmer than average across most of the continent. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia had the second warmest October in the 1910-2024 record; the continent had the 42nd driest October based on 1940-2024 ECMWF ERA5 precipitation data. The SPI maps show dryness in these areas extending over the last 1-3 months, dryness in coastal parts of southern, northwestern, and northeastern Australia at 6-12 months, dry conditions across the southern coast and in the west, central, and northeastern areas at 12-24 months, and dryness persisting along the southern and southwestern coasts and in Tasmania at longer time periods. Australia experienced unusually warm temperatures for the last 12 months as well. Continent-wide, Australia had the 37th wettest and second hottest November-October 12-month period, according to ECMWF ERA5 data. Increased evapotranspiration associated with the excessive warmth made drought conditions more intense and widespread on the SPEI maps, especially at the 1- to 3-month time scales. Dry soils were evident in southern, central, and western parts of Australia, according to GRACE soil moisture data. The GRACE data showed low groundwater in parts of central and western Australia. Satellite observations (VHI) revealed stressed vegetation across western, central, southern, and northeastern areas. These moisture anomaly patterns were confirmed by Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Australian Combined Drought Indicator analyses, which also showed record dryness along parts of the southern coast over the last 9 months, low streamflows in parts of northeast Australia and much of southwestern and southeastern Australia and Tasmania, and low water storage levels in parts of western and eastern Australia, especially in the southeast and southwest coastal areas. Drought returned to eastern coastal parts of the North Island on the early November New Zealand Drought Monitor map prepared by the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA).
South America
Southern, northwestern, and some eastern parts of South America were drier than average in October, while northern Argentina to southern Bolivia and parts of Brazil were wetter than average. Virtually the entire continent was much warmer than average. October 2024 ranked as the second driest and second warmest October, continent-wide, according to ECMWF ERA5 and NOAA/NCEI data, respectively. SPI maps showed a similar precipitation anomaly pattern at the 2- to 12-month time scales. The continent had the warmest February-October through November-October (all 4 time periods) as well as the driest November-October (last 12 months). At 2- to 6-year time scales, the SPI maps show areas of dryness in the north, central, and southern parts of South America, with wet or near-average areas separating the dry areas. The persistently hot temperatures increased evapotranspiration which exacerbated drought conditions. The ESI and EDDI maps showed much of the continent experiencing unusually high evapotranspiration at 1- to 12-month time scales. When the effects of low precipitation and high temperatures are combined, the SPEI maps show much more intense and widespread drought, especially over the northern half of the continent, with most of South America having some degree of drought at the longer time scales (24-48 months). Satellite observations (GRACE) show low groundwater across most of the continent and dry soils over most areas except the west coast and parts of southeast Brazil and Uruguay. Satellite analysis (VHI) revealed poor vegetative health from Peru and Brazil southward into Argentina and Chile.
Drought was confirmed across most of Brazil on the Brazilian Drought Monitor (National Water Agency map, CEMADEN map), in Chile and Argentina on the Southern South America Drought Information System (SISSA) maps, and in western South America countries on the CIIFEN Western South America Regional Drought Monitor. The SISSA 3-month drought index indicated 46.6% of Chile and Argentina was in drought or abnormally dry at the end of October, which is less than last month; the 6-month drought index had 60.9% of the region in drought or abnormally dry, which is more than last month; and the 12-month drought index had 51.9% of the region in drought or abnormally dry, which is a little less than last month. CEMADEN (National Center for Monitoring and Warning of Natural Disasters) statistics indicated that, in Brazil, 500 municipalities had at least 80% of their agro-productive areas (agricultural activities and/or pastures) impacted by drought in October; last month it was 980 municipalities. The CEMADEN report noted that, "Although lower than the number observed in September, the situation is still worrying, especially for pastures. The intensity and duration of the drought can compromise the quality of pastures, which can affect livestock farming in these regions." In October, 41 indigenous lands were classified as experiencing extreme drought (a decrease compared to September) and another 114 as experiencing severe drought (also a decrease compared to September).
According to media reports (Reuters), the severe drought in northern Brazil has lowered the water levels of the Tapajos waterway, halting grain transport, based on reports from the Brazilian port terminal group Amport. And a sharp decline in the Paraguay River, which hit a record low this month due to drought upstream in Brazil, is fueling a conflict between Paraguay's fishers and rice farmers over water use in a southern wetland region bordering Argentina. Residents of the Neembucu department and local fishers say that water-intensive rice farms, which use river water to irrigate their crops, are aggravating already-low water levels linked to drier weather caused by changes in climate. Reuters added that, according to the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, the current drought is the most intense and widespread Brazil has experienced since records began in 1950. The Associated Press reported that, in Colombia, the Amazon River's fall has isolated some rural Indigenous communities, prompting nonprofits and the government to deliver water and food to places that depend on rain and river water to survive. In some communities, it's an arduous hourlong walk along the dried-up areas to get basic supplies. In other areas, schoolchildren have to walk two hours to get to their classes as boats are unable to drop them close by. Water levels decreased between 80% and 90% in the past few months, according to Colombia's National Unit for Disaster Risk Management. The NASA Earth Observatory noted that rivers in the Amazon basin fell to record-low levels in October 2024 as drought gripped vast areas of South America. Months of diminished rains have amplified fires, parched crops, disrupted transportation networks, and interrupted hydroelectric power generation in parts of Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela.
The Associated Press reported that wildfires in Brazil have swept through an area the size of Switzerland, a level of destruction that will take decades to recover, if it ever does, according to a new satellite assessment. Eos reported on a study published in the journal, Communications Earth & Environment, which shows that dry, warm, and flammable conditions have skyrocketed across South America, favoring the spread of uncontrolled fire. Free Malasia Today noted that commodities trader Czarnikow Group Ltd. warned that global sugar supplies are seen shrinking to the lowest level in six years in early 2025 as drought hampers production in top exporter Brazil. Extreme dryness has eroded sugar cane crop conditions, limiting mills' ability to produce sugar in the latter months of the current season and this is signaling a delayed start to next year's harvest. ABC News reported that Ecuador has announced an increase in daily power cuts as the severe drought impacting the nation keeps lowering water levels for the key hydroelectric plants, the source of more than 70% of the country's electricity.
North America
In North America, the SPI showed October as drier than average across the eastern third of the contiguous United States (CONUS) to the northern half of Mexico, and from the north central United States (U.S.) to central Canada. October temperatures were warmer than average across much of the continent, with near-average monthly temperatures in western Canada to Alaska. NOAA/NCEI data ranked October 2024 as the warmest October on record, continent-wide, and ECMWF ERA5 data gave a rank of 12th driest. Unusual warmth characterized most of the last 12 months, with the periods October through June-October, and April-October through November-October (all 11 time periods) ranking warmest on record. It was particularly dry during the last 2 to 6 months across northern Mexico and much of the CONUS and Canada, the last 9 months in northwest Mexico and northwest and eastern Canada, and the last 12 to 72 months over northwest Mexico, most of Canada, and parts of Central America. In the U.S., dry conditions were evident from the Ohio Valley to southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico Coast at 12 to 36 months, across the central to southern Plains at 24 to 60 months, and in the West at 60 to 72 months. The unusually warm temperatures increased evapotranspiration across much of Mexico to the eastern half of Canada, as seen on the October ESI and EDDI maps. The EDDI maps show enhanced evapotranspiration extending across all of the CONUS at 2 months and across almost all of the continent at 3- to 12-month time scales. The unusual warmth/evapotranspiration is reflected on the SPEI maps by more intense and expansive drought, especially at the longer time scales โ virtually all of Canada and Mexico, and parts of Central America, have some degree of drought at 12 to 48 months, with severe drought across large parts of the U.S. southern Plains at 12 to 36 months and southern Plains to western CONUS at 12 and 48 months.
According to NOAA/NCEI national analyses, the CONUS had the second warmest and second driest October in the 1895-2024 record, with moderate to exceptional drought covering 54.1% of the CONUS (45.3% of the 50 states and Puerto Rico), which is more than a month ago and marks the largest four-week drought expansion in the 2000-2024 U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) record. The National Meteorological Service (SMN) of Mexico ranked October 2024 as the second warmest and 36th driest October on record, with moderate to exceptional drought covering 31.7% of the country, an increase from last month. In Canada, 29.3% of the country was in drought, which is less than the end of September.
Satellite (GRACE) observations revealed extensive areas of low groundwater across much of western and eastern Canada and parts of central Canada, the southern Plains of the U.S., the Mid-Mississippi Valley to central Appalachians in the U.S., from the Mid-Atlantic coast to northeast U.S., across much of northern Mexico, and parts of Central America. GRACE observations of soil moisture indicated dry soils across those same areas in Canada, Mexico, and Central America, plus most of the CONUS. Satellite analysis (VHI) indicated poor vegetative health across northern Mexico to much of the CONUS and Canada. Dozens of large wildfires burned across western Canada and western, central, and eastern parts of the CONUS during October. The North American Drought Monitor (NADM) product depicted drought or abnormal dryness across most of the CONUS, much of Canada, and the northwestern fourth of Mexico, with 33.7% of the area and 33.1% of the population of North America in drought at the end of October, both of which are increases compared to last month. The Caribbean Regional Climate Center SPI maps showed areas of short-term (1 to 6 months) and long-term (12 months) dryness across various parts of the Caribbean region, especially in the western and central parts of the region at the 1-month time scale. Temperatures have been especially warm in the Caribbean, with October and September-October through November-October (all 12 time periods) ranking warmest in the NOAA/NCEI record. Central America had the third warmest October and warmest November-October (last 12 months) in the ECMWF ERA5 record.
According to media reports (Yahoo! News/AFP), even though recent months have seen an increase in precipitation in Central America, traffic in the Panama Canal fell by 29 percent over the past year due to a severe drought linked to climate change, the canal's operator said in October. The volume of cargo shipped through the canal, which links the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, was down by 17 percent in a year to 423 million tons. Mexico News Daily reported that, as Mexico bids farewell to a very rainy summer season, the country is still experiencing historically low water reserves. According to the National Water Commission (CONAGUA), the total water storage of Mexico's 210 main dams is 80.1 billion cubic meters โ 64% of their total capacity โ a figure that is 12% lower than the historical average of 91.3 billion cubic meters.