NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information
Global Drought Information System
This Global Drought Narrative is based on global drought indicators available at the Global Drought Information System, and media reports summarized by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Global Drought Overview
Beneficial precipitation fell across parts of the drought areas in China and North America during February 2023, but the month was drier than normal over other parts of the drought-plagued agricultural lands of North America as well as parts of Africa and Europe and much of South America. A significant amount of the world’s agricultural lands was still suffering from low soil moisture and groundwater levels, with agriculture most threatened in parts of the Americas and Africa. The afflicted areas include the Canadian Prairies, Great Plains of the United States, Brazil and Argentina in South America, Western Europe, eastern China, and northern and East Africa. Like the last four months, of the continents, Australia seems to be in the best shape, but even parts of Australia were drier than normal in February. According to media reports (BBC), the global shipping giant Maersk warned that increased droughts are forcing shipping companies to abandon some of the world's main river cargo routes.
Europe
Western and southern portions of Europe were drier than normal during February, while northern and eastern portions were warmer and near to wetter than normal. The dry area extended from Turkey, across the Mediterranean countries, to the British Isles. The February dryness is a continuation of dry conditions that have been happening on and off for the last several months. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) reflects the cumulative effects of the dryness over time and shows that dryness for the last 6 months extends from Turkey to France and in a few areas to the north in Scandinavia, while the 12- to 24-month SPI shows very dry conditions across most of Europe. Southern to central Europe even has dryness out to the last 36 to 72 months. Continent-wide, Europe had the warmest May-February period ending February 2023, based on the 110-year NCEI record. When increased evapotranspiration caused by excessively hot summer temperatures is combined with the dryness, as seen by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), drought conditions are even more extreme and cover a larger area that extends back in time over the last 48 months. Satellite-based (GRACE) indicators of groundwater and soil moisture reveal the impacts of this persistent dryness across much of the continent with low groundwater and soil moisture levels evident. The European Combined Drought Indicator shows extensive drought in the British Isles, France, Turkey, and along the Black Sea coast, and locally in other southern parts of the continent.
According to media reports (The Guardian), Italy's rivers and lakes are facing another year of severe drought after a winter of little rain and snowfall, raising the alarm on the implications for farming, hydropower and access to drinking water. CNN noted that "a winter heatwave, record low levels of rain and a startling lack of snow in Europe are pushing rivers, canals and lakes across the continent to alarmingly low levels, with experts warning there could be repeat of last year's severe droughts." France 24 reported that parts of Europe have not yet recovered from drought in 2022. The absence of precipitation in France equals the record set in spring 2020, as rainfall was less than one millimeter a day since January 21. The Connexion France added that France had 26 straight days without rain (January 21-February 17). After one of the driest winters on record in the country, rivers and lakes remain low. The French environment minister Christophe Bechu said water supply is more threatened than in 2022, when a prolonged drought curtailed generation from hydropower and nuclear plants, which need river water for cooling. Also, winter is a crucial time for groundwater recharge on the continent. In Spain, the Anadolu Agency reported that, beginning February 28, the government of Catalonia will enforce new water restrictions on nearly 6 million people due to a drought that has lasted more than two years. The Ter-Llobregat water system, which feeds large parts of the Spanish region, is at 27% capacity thanks to 25 months of hardly any rain. The Environment Minister noted that Catalonia has not experienced such an intense drought since 1905. Experts in England said that the country could be one dry spell away from a worse situation than last year, as reservoirs are still not refilled. The dry winter in Europe has reduced mountain snowpack, with the Associated Press reporting that snowmelt in Italy is insufficient for streams and tributaries that flow into the Po River, and snowpack in the French Alps, the Pyrenees and other French mountain ranges is also much lower than usual for this time of year.
Asia
In Asia, southern parts (especially India) and some eastern areas were drier than normal in February, with much of the continent warmer than normal. Precipitation was above normal over large parts of eastern China, providing some temporary relief to part of the drought area in China. At the 3-month time scale, dry conditions extend from India across Southwest Asia to Turkey, and in a few areas in Far East Asia. At 6 months, the SPI shows the drought area in southeast China, while 6- to 72-month SPI time scales reveal widespread dryness across Southwest Asia. Excessively warm temperatures have accompanied the dryness in recent years, with Asia experiencing the warmest March-February 48-month time period, continent-wide, in the 110-year NCEI record. When the increased evapotranspiration from excessively warm temperatures is combined with the dryness, as seen in the SPEI, additional drought areas are evident from Mongolia to western China and in northern parts of Asia at the 6-month and longer time scales. GRACE satellite observations reveal low groundwater and soil moisture across much of China to Mongolia, Southwest Asia, and north central Asia.
Media reports (Radio Taiwan International) noted that Taiwan has not seen a typhoon make direct landfall in three years. Often, typhoons and the plum rain season are sources of water for Taiwan, but this year, changing weather patterns are starting to have some serious effects on water levels.
Africa
February was drier than normal over central to East Africa and over parts of the Mediterranean coast (the Maghreb region). This was a continuation of dry conditions which are evident for these areas for the last 2 to 36 months on the SPI maps, and out to 72 months for northwest Africa. February 2023 was also warmer than normal over the southern half of the continent, from the Horn of Africa and sub-Saharan Africa southward. The warmer-than-normal temperatures increased evapotranspiration, exacerbating the impact of the dry weather over central to East Africa over the last 1 to 2 months, as seen on the SPEI maps. Persistent heat in past months shows up as severe drought here and in north Africa on SPEI maps at 3- to 48-month time scales. Satellite (GRACE) observations reveal low groundwater and soil moisture across North Africa, East Africa, and central to southern parts of the continent.
According to media reports (France24), the brutal drought in the Horn of Africa has left millions without food and impoverished amid the driest conditions in 40 years. Doctors and social workers report an increase in domestic violence. The Associated Press reported that the Horn of Africa drought is trending worse than the 2011 drought in which at least a quarter-million people died there. This may be a sixth straight failed rainfall season. This has been Somalia’s longest drought on record and has claimed the lives of tens of thousands of people. According to the Kenya Broadcasting Corporation, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network reported that drought is worsening in the pastoral parts of Kenya. Water sources are drying up. Livestock body conditions continue to deteriorate with livestock deaths continuing. In the north, the Morocco World News noted that the dam filling rate in Morocco has reached nearly 33%, as of February 20, after an intense year of drought in 2022. This is similar to the 2022 levels. Drought was developing in parts of southern Africa, where the Independent Online media outlet reported that Cape Town, South Africa’s residents’ water usage has surged while dam levels continue to drop.
Australia
Much of Australia was drier than normal during February 2023, with western and southern areas warmer than normal. Dry areas are evident in the southwest and along the east coast at 2 to 3 months, but wet conditions earlier limit dry SPI values to the southwest and north central coast at 6- to 48-month time scales, per SPI and Australian Combined Drought Indicator analyses. Low soil moisture and groundwater are evident in some parts of western and eastern Australia, as seen in GRACE data and on Australian Bureau of Meteorology analyses.
South America
In South America, rain fell over the Amazon rainforest during February, but precipitation amounts were below normal across much of Brazil and Peru, as well as areas south. Above-normal temperatures for much of the continent accompanied the dryness, exacerbating the conditions. These regions, from Peru and Brazil south to Argentina and Chile, have been experiencing drought for the last 4 years, as seen on the SPI and SPEI maps. Satellite (GRACE) observations reveal extensive low groundwater and soil moisture. Drought in southern and western Brazil was confirmed on the Brazilian Drought Monitor.
According to media reports (Prensa Latina), drought continues to threaten Uruguay's water supply. The agricultural emergency in Uruguay was extended, with drought possibly leading to requests for water conservation in various regions of the country. According to BN Americas, most of the Southern Cone (Chile, Uruguay, Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay) is dealing with drought and water shortages, with Chile being the worst affected. Through February 9, two dozen people in Chile had died and more than 350,000 hectares of forest and woodland had been incinerated by wildfires in the south-central part of the country as a years' long drought persisted. Reuters reported that parts of southern Chile are so dry that grass will not grow for grazing; feeding livestock through the coming winter will be difficult without animal feed. Argentina is enduring its worst drought in sixty years, pummeling soy, corn and wheat crops and reducing cattle herds. The relentless drought in the Rio Grande do Sul region continued to limit Brazil's soybean potential this year. According to ETF Trends, a Successful Farming article noted that "Argentina's Rosario grains exchange (BCR) on Wednesday cut its 2022/23 soybean harvest estimate to 34.5 million tonnes from the previous 37 million tonnes, which would mark the lowest production of the grain in the last 14 years."
North America
In North America, above-normal precipitation fell from the central Plains to Great Lakes, but much of northern Canada, the Canadian Maritimes to northeastern U.S., the Pacific Northwest to southern Canadian Prairies, and the Gulf of Mexico region were drier than normal in February. Much of Mexico and the eastern U.S. were warmer than normal while the rest of the continent was near to cooler than normal. Most of southern and north central Canada, the Pacific Northwest, Mexico, and Gulf coast were drier than normal at the 2- to 3-month time scales, with the central to southern Plains in the U.S. added to the dry region at 6 to 36 months. Unusually hot temperatures have occurred in recent years, especially over the western U.S. The increased evapotranspiration caused by the warmer-than-average temperatures increased the intensity of drought in the previously-mentioned dry regions, as seen on the SPEI maps, with the U.S. West included at 24- to 48-month time scales. The persistent dryness over the western U.S. over the last two decades has reduced reservoir levels along the Colorado River, with Lake Powell reaching a new all-time low in February. GRACE satellite data revealed low groundwater and soil moisture levels over northern Mexico, from the southern Plains to Pacific Northwest in the U.S., and extending across western to central and north central Canada. The North American Drought Monitor product depicted drought across much of western to central Canada, most of the central to western U.S., the Gulf of Mexico coast, and much of Mexico.
According to media reports (BN Americas), Mexico's IMCO reported that, over the past few years, the central and northern regions of the country have faced water scarcity issues due to increasing droughts. If this issue continues to increase, there could be a large impact on energy production at a national level, which could impact Mexico's population and economy. The media company, 650 CKOM, reported that low profits, drought and a shortage of veterinarians are threatening Saskatchewan's cattle industry. CTV News noted that U.S. and Canadian beef farmers continued to thin their herds in near-record numbers, due to drought and other extreme weather events. This may lead to supply problems in the beef industry over the longer term.