Global Drought Information System
This Global Drought Narrative is based on global drought indicators available at the Global Drought Information System, and media reports summarized by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Global Drought Overview
Overview: GDIS global indicators revealed dry conditions continued during January 2024 across much of South America, Africa, and southern parts of Asia. Beneficial precipitation fell across much of the contiguous United States (CONUS), but much of Canada to the north and Mexico and Central America to the south continued dry. It was wet in Australia, except along the west coast and in some interior areas, and across parts of Europe, except in the north (Scandinavia) and south. The Mediterranean region continued particularly dry. It was a record-warm January for Africa and South America. While not record warm, January temperatures still averaged warmer than normal for North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia. When averaged across the world, January 2024 ranked as the warmest January in the NOAA/NCEI record globally. According to a report by the University of Maryland's Robert Adler and Guojun Gu, global total precipitation for January was nearly record high, thanks in part to widespread heavy rains associated with the ongoing El Niño. The excessive heat increased evapotranspiration which exacerbated drought in those areas that were hot and have been persistently dry.
A significant portion of the world's agricultural lands was still suffering from low soil moisture and groundwater levels, and satellite observations showed stressed vegetation on all continents. The GEOGLAM Crop Monitor indicated that agriculture was most threatened in parts of Central and South Americas, Africa, Europe, and southern Asia. The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNet) revealed significant food insecurity continuing in parts of Central and South America, Southwest Asia, and much of Africa. Drought is reducing crop yields in several countries and has lowered water levels in the Panama Canal, reducing ship crossings in one of the world's most important trade routes. The reduced crop production is leading to the risk of famine in African countries and, according to a trade expert at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), combined with surging shipping costs, it is affecting energy and food costs, which is raising inflation risks.
Europe
Like the last 2 months, Mediterranean coastal areas and parts of northern Europe were drier than normal during January 2024, while areas in between were wetter than normal. This month's precipitation added to previous months' above-normal precipitation to create a positive precipitation anomaly pattern across central Europe at the 1- to 3-month time scales, with dry conditions in Scandinavia and along the Mediterranean coast. The dryness in the south persisted at longer time scales, according to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), with dryness extending northward to the Baltic coast at multi-year time scales. Temperatures were warmer than normal in southern Europe and near to cooler than normal in the north, with January 2024 ranking as the 19th warmest January in the 1910-2024 NOAA/NCEI record when temperatures are averaged across the continent. The last 12 months were the fourth warmest such February-January period on record. The excessive heat increased evapotranspiration, making drought conditions worse, especially along the Mediterranean coast but also in areas to the north, as seen in the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Drought was much more extensive and intense at the 2- to 4-year time scales, according to the SPEI. Soil moisture models (CPC Leaky Bucket) showed improved soil moisture conditions due to the recent precipitation, but satellite observations (GRACE) indicated dry soils were still evident in southern, central, and eastern parts of Europe. The satellite-based (GRACE) indicator of groundwater revealed low groundwater levels continuing in these same areas as well as parts of Scandinavia. Satellite observations of vegetative health (Vegetative Health Index, VHI) revealed improved vegetation conditions over most of the continent. The European Combined Drought Indicator showed the most severe drought in parts of eastern Europe, the Mediterranean coast, and northern Scandinavia, with 24.2% of the EU-27 territory in Drought Watch, Warning, or Alert conditions, which is more than last month.
According to media reports (Gibraltar Chronicle), restrictions to potable water supply in Spain's Campo de Gibraltar have been implemented amid mounting concern about falling reserves due to a lack of rainfall. The measure will affect around 278,000 people from eight municipalities. Euro Weekly News added that severe drought in southern Spain's Málaga and Axarquia's olive-growing regions has led to a drastic drop in olive yields, forcing the early closure of several olive oil mills. Asaja in Málaga emphasizes that the ongoing dry spell has caused farms to harvest only half the usual amount of olives compared to previous years. This significant decline in production is poised to greatly reduce the overall output of olive oil. The Olive Press noted that Fuengirola has become the first municipality on Spain's Costa del Sol to cut domestic drinking water supplies due to the severe drought that is affecting the Andalucia region. The Associated Press reported that officials in Spain's northeast region of Catalonia declared a drought emergency on February 1, with reservoirs that serve 6 million people, including the population of Barcelona, at under 16% of their capacity, a historic low. Euronews.green added that in Catalonia, Spain, which is experiencing one of the worst droughts in living memory, at no point in the last century have water shortages been so severe. As reported by the BBC, parts of Europe have been facing a drought and this could have an impact on the food prices in U.K. supermarkets: "According to the British Retail Consortium, on average, food prices are rising by more than 6% a year in the U.K. With half the U.K.'s food imported from overseas, the knock-on effect of extreme weather is playing a significant part in this." The New Civil Engineer reported that the U.K.'s Thames Water utility has come under fire for its accelerated plans to pump treated sewage into the River Thames during droughts to replace water it abstracts for drinking. Connexion France noted that a two-year drought has left five communes in the south of France without tap water, with residents forced to rely on water from bottles or from tanker deliveries. In addition, 40 further communes in the Pyrénées-Orientales department are being monitored, with water levels dangerously low and which could run out at any moment. Reuters reported that, according to Italy's main farming lobby Coldiretti, unusually mild weather and droughts in Italy are destroying crops and threatening livelihoods this winter. According to Breaking Latest News, in Sardinia (off the coast of Italy) there is almost a water emergency as the rains have been reduced and the reservoirs are emptying.
Asia
January was dry across much of Southwest Asia and parts of South Asia, Southeast Asia, and northwest, central, and southeast Russia. The dryness in Southwest Asia persisted at 2- to 36-month time scales, and was more intense at the longer time scales, according to the SPI. The dryness in the other areas also extended to longer time scales but became less intense. In southern Asia, an area of dryness that extended from northern India into western China persisted from 1 to 6 months, then the area bifurcated with the northern end extending into Mongolia by the 12-month time scale. January was warmer than normal across the southern half of Asia and parts of central Russia, with the northern half of the continent mostly near to cooler than normal. When averaged across the continent, January 2024 ranked as the ninth warmest January. Excessive heat dominated the continent for the last 12 months, with February 2023-January 2024 ranking as the warmest such 12-month period, continent-wide, in the 115-year NOAA/NCEI record. The excessive heat increased evapotranspiration in the south, as seen by the ESI, and exacerbated drought conditions at 1- to 48-month time scales, as shown by the SPEI. This was especially the case in southern parts of Asia and from western China to Mongolia, but also the case across large parts of Russia. Soil moisture models showed improved soil moisture conditions, except in the southwest and a few other parts of Asia, but satellite observations (GRACE) indicated dry soils, as well as low groundwater, were more widespread across the south, in China to Mongolia, and across large parts of Russia. January is in the heart of Northern Hemisphere winter and soils across much of Asia are frozen, so the soil moisture anomalies are more evident of conditions that were locked into place several months ago. Satellite observations (VHI) revealed poor vegetative health across Southwest Asia, western and northern parts of China, and Mongolia, extending into southern Russia. Drought conditions were confirmed over northern, eastern, and coastal southwestern parts of India on the India Drought Monitor, covering about 26.0% of the nation, which is about the same as last month. Some short- or long-term drought was indicated on some of the islands in the Southwest Pacific on the NIWA Island Climate Update maps, mostly in the south, north, and east at 1 to 6 months and central, southern, and eastern islands at 12-months.
According to media reports (The Guardian), the global cost of sugar has surged to its highest level since 2011 following concerns of underproduction rates from India, which has experienced an extreme dry spell that has threatened crops, and Thailand, which is facing a severe drought. The two countries are the largest exporters of sugar, after Brazil. Eurasia Review reported that the Mekong Delta in South Vietnam has been the country's rice granary for generations, feeding more than 20 million people today. But changes in climate resulting in droughts and salinity of the river-fed waters is now threatening food security. In India, The Hindu reported that hundreds attended special prayers on January 12 in the Valley to pray for an end to a prolonged dry spell in Kashmir and unusually high temperatures during the day. A spokesman said weather conditions in Kashmir and severe drought have affected agriculture and horticulture besides causing severe hardship and suffering and negatively affecting the winter tourist season. The Kmer Times reported that little rain has fallen in the past three months across Pakistan, and farmers are worried about their winter crops and missing agricultural production targets. Eco-Business reported that rice prices surged across Indonesia during the second half of 2023 as the effects of El Niño led to widespread crop failures. According to The Independent, a severe lack of snow and a warmer-than-average winter recorded in Afghanistan this year could exacerbate the country's already dire drought conditions. Afghanistan is already in its third year of drought, and humanitarian groups are warning that another year could push the conflict-stricken country to the brink.
Africa
January continued dry across much of the Mediterranean coast (the Maghreb region) of Africa, as well as areas from the Congo River Valley to southern Africa. The Horn of Africa was near to drier than normal in January. Northern, western, and eastern Africa were dry at the 2-month time scale, as seen on the SPI maps, with some dryness in southern Africa and on Madagascar. Earlier El Niño-induced rains gave central to eastern Africa a very wet 3- to 12-month period, while dryness continued in the other aforementioned areas. The dryness in northern Africa was more intense at longer time periods, especially 24 to 60 months. January 2024 was warmer than normal across most of the continent and ranked as the warmest January on record. The last 2 to 12 months were also the warmest on record for Africa, illustrating how excessive heat has dominated the continent. The anomalous heat increased evapotranspiration, especially in the northern half of the continent, as seen on the ESI map. The SPEI maps show how the increased evapotranspiration made drought conditions worse, with drought dominating most of the continent at longer time periods (9 to 48 months). Models and satellite (GRACE) observations revealed persistent low soil moisture and groundwater in the Maghreb and adjacent northern regions, and over parts of central to southern Africa, with the worst conditions in the north and central regions. Satellite observations of vegetative health (VHI) revealed stressed vegetation over the northern and southern thirds of the continent, including Madagascar, with the most severe conditions in the northwest. An analysis by the African Flood and Drought Monitor estimated 25% of the continent in drought at the end of January, which is more than last month.
According to media reports (The East African), a new study ("Drought and human mobility in Africa" published in Earth's Future on December 21, 2023) concluded that, as regional climates undergo significant changes, and both droughts and floods become bigger problems prompting individuals to seek safer havens, more Africans are moving from one climate risky place to another. In 80 percent of African countries, populations moved toward rivers and into urban areas during or following drought, increasing the number of people living in flood-risk areas in recent decades. The Addis Standard reported that the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (DRMC) and the United Nations Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator have released a joint statement urgently addressing the severe humanitarian crisis affecting approximately four million individuals in drought-afflicted areas of Ethiopia. Reuters noted that the World Food Programme is planning to feed 270,000 hungry Zimbabweans over the next three months as the country braces for a poor harvest due to an El Niño-induced drought. The southern African country has been struggling to feed itself since 2000, when former leader Robert Mugabe led the seizure of white-owned farms to resettle landless Black people. The Associated Press addressed the broader problem, reporting that the U.N. World Food Program said that it was working with Zimbabwe's government and aid agencies to provide food to 2.7 million rural people in the country as the El Niño weather phenomenon contributes to a drought crisis in southern Africa. According to the Associated Press, in late January the national ombudsman said nearly 400 people have died of starvation in Ethiopia's Tigray and Amhara regions in recent months. Reuters reported that, in the Maghreb region of northern Africa, six consecutive years of drought have left Moroccan dams at critical levels, prompting a big drop in the area of land being irrigated. By mid-January, Morocco's average dam filling rate had dropped to 23.2% from 31.5% a year earlier. The worst drought in more than two decades prompted Moroccan authorities to ban the use of drinking water to clean streets or irrigate parks in cities and to stop dam water being used to irrigate some key farming areas. Wells have dried up, with farmers having to dig down to 400 meters with no guarantee of finding enough water. The Morocco World News added that Morocco's government is extending a water-rationing campaign to affect car washing services and public hammams in the Casablanca-Settat region and across Morocco.
Australia
The western coast of Australia was drier than normal in January, while much of the rest of the continent was wetter than normal. This precipitation anomaly pattern persisted at the 2- to 3-month time scales, with dryness intensifying in the west and showing up along the southeast coast and some interior areas at 6 months. Dry areas also showed up in the north and southwest at longer periods on the SPI maps, but otherwise wet conditions dominated in the north and east. Monthly temperatures were warmer than normal across much of the continent. January 2024 ranked as the ninth wettest January in the 1900-2024 record, and third warmest January in the 1910-2024 record, continent-wide, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). The Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) indicated enhanced evapotranspiration over western areas and Tasmania due to warmth during January and previous months. The effect of the enhanced evapotranspiration shows up in the SPEI maps as more severe and widespread dryness at all time scales, compared to the SPI maps. Dry soils were evident across the west coast, some interior areas, and Tasmania, according to GRACE soil moisture data. The GRACE data showed low groundwater in the west and parts of the east, plus Tasmania. Satellite observations (VHI) revealed stressed vegetation across most of the continent, especially the west to central regions. These moisture anomaly patterns were confirmed by Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Australian Combined Drought Indicator analyses, which also showed low streamflows along the west coast and in scattered areas in the south and east, as well as Tasmania; some areas on the coasts had low water storage levels. Parts of New Zealand, especially central areas, were in drought at the end of January, based on the New Zealand Drought Monitor map prepared by the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA). According to media reports (Australian Broadcasting Company), the Western Australia town of Leonora has been invaded by cattle as heat and drought drive them to search for food and water. The livestock devour gardens and can be aggressive.
South America
In South America, January was wetter than normal over eastern Brazil, parts of Argentina, and a few other areas, but drier-than-normal conditions dominated most other areas. The SPI maps showed excessive dryness over southern to western parts of Brazil and northern and western parts of the continent at the 2- to 3-month time scales, with dryness especially acute over most of Brazil and countries to the north and west at 6 to 12 months; parts of Argentina and Chile were also dry during these time periods. A mixed precipitation anomaly pattern was evident at longer time scales, but where it was dry, it was acutely dry, especially in strips in the south, across Brazil, and in the north. January temperatures were much above normal across the continent, with the month ranking as the warmest January in the NOAA/NCEI record. Excessive heat dominated the last 12 months, with every time period from December-January through February-January ranking as the warmest on record. The heat increased evapotranspiration, as seen on the ESI maps, and worsened drought conditions, as seen on the SPEI maps — almost the entire continent, from Brazil and northern Argentina/Chile to the Caribbean coast, was in solid drought on the 6- to 12-month SPEI maps, with drought extending across almost all of Chile and Argentina at longer time periods. At the 48-month time period, virtually the entire continent had some degree of dryness. Modeled soil moisture had only a few parts of the continent that were not excessively dry, while satellite (GRACE) observations revealed extensive areas of low soil moisture across northern Argentina and countries to the north, and over the southern tip of South America. Low groundwater was indicated on the GRACE map from Venezuela to Brazil and southern Peru to the southern tip of the continent. Satellite analysis revealed poor vegetative health across much of the continent, but especially stretching from Bolivia to southern Argentina. Drought was confirmed in Brazil on the Brazilian Drought Monitor, in Bolivia on the Bolivian Drought Monitor, in Chile and Argentina on Southern South America Drought Information System and Chilean Combined Drought Index maps, and in western South America countries on the Western South America Regional Drought Monitor.
According to media reports (Brazil Reports), a study carried out by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) revealed that in 2023 the nine countries located in the Amazon basin recorded the lowest rainfall levels in 40 years. The extreme drought threatens plant and animal life as well as Indigenous communities in countries within the basin. The National Catholic Reporter noted that the situation was especially serious in the Amazonas state in the northern part of the basin, where dozens of riverside communities were isolated when river levels dropped too low for navigation. Lack of food and water affected the lives of many in the region in late 2023, and some of those consequences are ongoing. The BBC reported on a study of climate change in the Amazon rainforest by the World Weather Attribution group: "One of our planet's most vital defenses against global warming is itself being ravaged by climate change. It was the main driver of the Amazon rainforest's worst drought in at least half a century." BNAmericas noted that Brazil's grid operator ONS has identified four thermoelectric plants that can be used to provide additional power amid the drought that has affected the northern region of the country since last year. Brazil's government decided to continue using thermoelectric plants and energy imports from Argentina as the low rainfall in the north is impacting the levels of reservoirs for hydro plants on the Xingu, Madeira, Tocantins and Teles Pires rivers. According to Food Navigator Europe, severe drought in Brazil and citrus greening disease are plaguing the Florida and São Paulo regions of Brazil where more than 85% of the global supply of the world's orange juice is produced. Reuters reported that the risk of forest fires in Colombia has increased significantly in January, and that the current situation could worsen deforestation. Colombia, one of the world's most biodiverse countries, is seeing the effects of its typical dry season combine with a strong El Niño weather phenomenon, which typically produces hotter and drier weather. Prensa Latina reported that the damage to the agricultural sector caused by the drought impacted 3% of Uruguay's Gross Domestic Product in 2023, according to an official report. Based on a report from the Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries (MGAP), the damage, which may be felt in the coming months, totaled 1 billion 883 million dollars.
North America
In North America, January was drier than normal across much of Canada, north central parts of the contiguous United States (CONUS), and central Mexico to Central America. Parts of Mexico and Canada, and much of the U.S. West and central to eastern CONUS, were wetter than normal. This precipitation anomaly pattern in Canada and the CONUS was evident on the SPI maps at the 2- to 3-month time scales, with the dryness in Mexico shifting to northern parts of the country. At 6 to 24 months much of the area from Central America to the southern U.S. was drier than normal, with the dryness expanding across the entire Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. At longer time scales, much of Central America to Mexico was drier than normal, while dryness in the southern U.S. and Great Plains at 24 months shifted to the western CONUS by 60 months. Most of Canada was drier than normal for most of the last 72 months, with dryness being most severe in the Prairies at 1 to 3 years. The northeastern half of Canada, western CONUS, and much of Mexico were warmer than normal during January, with the continent having the 20th warmest January in the NOAA/NCEI record. Excessive heat characterized much of the last 12 months, with February-January ranking as the second warmest such 12-month period. The excessive heat increased evapotranspiration, and this is reflected in the SPEI which shows more severe and widespread areas of drought at all time scales compared to the SPI maps.
According to NOAA/NCEI national analyses, the CONUS had the 48th warmest and tenth wettest January in the 1895-2024 record, with moderate to exceptional drought covering 23.5% of the nation, which is less than a month ago. Moderate to exceptional drought covered 60.5% of Mexico at the end of January, which is more than a month ago. In Canada, 70% of the country was classified as Abnormally Dry (D0) or in Moderate to Exceptional Drought (D1-D4), which is about the same as last month. Satellite (GRACE) observations revealed extensive areas of low groundwater across most of western Canada and parts of eastern Canada, the southwestern U.S. to interior Pacific Northwest, parts of the Mississippi to Ohio Valley, and much of Mexico to Central America. GRACE observations of soil moisture indicated dry soils across those same areas of Canada, Mexico, and Central America, as well as the Southwest, Lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Pacific Northwest in the CONUS. Satellite analysis indicated poor vegetative health across most of Canada, much of the central to western CONUS, and northern Mexico. The North American Drought Monitor product depicted drought across the northern Rockies, central Plains to Great Lakes, and Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys in the CONUS; much of Canada; and from the U.S. Southwest and southern Plains across much of Mexico. The Caribbean Regional Climate Center SPI maps showed areas of short-term (1 to 6 months) or long-term (12 to 24 months) dryness across parts of the Caribbean islands, especially in the far north and far south.
In Canada, the AAFC (Agriculture and AgriFood Canada) reported that abnormally dry to drought conditions affected 81% of the country's agricultural landscape, about the same as last month. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) statistics indicated that drought affected approximately 27% of barley production, 28% of corn production, 21% of cotton production, 20% of sorghum production, 29% of soybean production, 28% of spring wheat production, 17% of winter wheat production, 18% of hay acreage, 18% of the cattle inventory, 13% of the milk cow inventory, and 22% of the sheep inventory at the end of January.
According to media reports (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation [CBC]), recent data from the British Columbia government shows extremely low snowpack levels across the province at an average of 56% of normal. The province says 15 snow stations measured all-time record low snowpack at the beginning of January, five of which are in the Lower Fraser region and four within the Upper Columbia snow basins. The Vancouver Sun added that the Village of McBride, located southeast of Prince George in British Columbia near the Alberta border, has been in a state of emergency because of severe drought for five months. Mayor Eugene Runtz said there is a major concern that the community of close to 700 people could run out of drinking water. He said that while the reservoir is now full, there is no water feeding into it from Dominion Creek, which has been bone dry since June. This is because of a reduced snowpack last year causing lower melt levels. The Surrey Now-Leader reported in mid-January that more than 100 wildfires were still listed as burning in British Columbia thanks to a combination of a busy wildfire season, extreme drought and generally warmer and drier conditions through December. Forrest Tower of the BC Wildfire Service said that while it's not uncommon for some fires to burn through the winter, that number usually hovers around a couple dozen, not the 106 that were listed as active on New Year's Day. Global News noted that the current water shortage in Lethbridge, Alberta, concerns Joel Sanchez, the City of Lethbridge's director of infrastructure, who says people need to start planning ahead. The storage level for the Oldman Reservoir in mid-January was at 28 per cent. According to the city, around this time of year, it usually averages between 62 and 80 per cent. Oilprice.com noted that Canada's western provinces have been hit by the worst drought in years and provincial utilities are getting into losses as their hydropower generating capacities are lower amid low reservoir levels. The Lethbridge News Now agency reported that, at the Marmot Creek well in Kananaskis Country, in the mountains of Alberta, the lowest groundwater levels are all in the last seven years and the levels are much lower now than they were in the 1970s and 1980s. Some wells in central Alberta have already dried up. The CBC reported that the B.C. Energy Regulator (the agency overseeing oil and gas producers in British Columbia) is warning of potential water shortages in 2024 — persistent drought last summer and fall in the northern part of British Columbia continue to negatively affect streamflows and groundwater, with snowpack levels at last reading only 72 per cent of the historical average. World-Grain.com reported that, despite a larger planted area, Canada's wheat production in 2023-2024 dropped 7% from the previous year to 31.95 million tonnes, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Severely low soil moisture in Alberta and Saskatchewan reduced yields. Reuters added that Canada's abnormally dry winter is worsening drought conditions across the western provinces, where most of the country's oil, gas, forest products and grain are produced. Many cities experienced their warmest December ever recorded and British Columbia's snowpack is on average 44% below normal, according to provincial data. The dry winter follows Canada's hottest summer on record, partly due to the El Niño weather phenomenon, and is raising concerns that 2024 could be another record-breaking wildfire year.
The Associated Press reported that a severe drought that began last year has forced authorities to slash ship crossings by 36% in the Panama Canal. Reuters added that the Panama Canal's toll revenues have dipped by about $100 million per month since last October and that if the trend continues reduced income from tolls could total some $700 million by around April. The falling revenue stems from drought conditions that have forced the canal's managers to impose shipping restrictions on the more than century-old waterway, a key global trade route linking the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The Tico Times noted that, with national meteorological forecasts predicting drier than average conditions in early 2024, Costa Rican officials are urging residents, businesses and industry groups to exercise careful water usage and planning during the upcoming dry season. The call for conservation aims to sustain essential water access even if rationing becomes necessary in parts of the country.