NOAA and its partners have released the latest Regional Climate Impacts and Outlooks, which recap summer conditions and provide insight into what might be expected this fall.
Summer Temperature Recap
The meteorological summer (June–August) average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 73.8°F, 2.5°F above average, which is the fourth-warmest summer in the 130-year record. Temperatures were above average to record warm across much of the western U.S. and from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast. Arizona, California, Florida, Maine and New Hampshire each had their warmest summer on record.
The Alaska summer temperature was 51.7°F, 1.3°F above the long-term average, ranking in the warmest third of the record for the state. Temperatures were above-average across much of the state, while parts of the West Coast and Bristol Bay saw near-average summer temperatures.
For the January–August period, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 56.9°F, 3.0°F above average, ranking second warmest on record. Temperatures were above average across the contiguous U.S., while record-warm temperatures were observed in parts of the Northeast, Ohio Valley and South. New Hampshire, Vermont and West Virginia each saw their warmest January–August period on record.
The Alaska January–August temperature was 31.2°F, 2.4°F above the long-term average, ranking in the warmest third of the historical record for the state. Most of the state was warmer than average.
Summer Precipitation Recap
The U.S. summer precipitation total was near-average with a total of 8.30 inches, ranking in the middle third of the June–August record. Precipitation was above average across portions of the Upper Midwest, and in parts of the Northeast, Southeast, Gulf Coast and central Rockies. Michigan saw its fifth-wettest summer on record. Summer precipitation was below average from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast, from the northern Rockies to California and across portions of the central and southern Plains. West Virginia had its fifth-driest summer on record.
For summer season precipitation, Alaska ranked in the wettest third of the record with wetter-than-average conditions observed across most of the state. Precipitation was below average in parts of the South Panhandle, Southeast Interior and the Aleutians.
The January–August precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 22.93 inches, 2.23 inches above average, ranking 10th wettest in the 130-year record. Precipitation was above average across a large portion of the Upper Midwest, Northeast and Deep South, with Rhode Island and Connecticut both ranking second wettest. Conversely, precipitation was below average across parts of the Northwest, northern Plains, central Appalachians and west Texas during the January–August period.
The January–August precipitation for Alaska ranked in the wettest third of the 100-year record.
Fall Temperature Outlook
Above-normal temperatures are favored throughout a majority of the southern and eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and northwestern Alaska during October, November, and December. Conversely, below normal temperatures are more likely for much of southern Alaska. Equal Chances of below, near, or above normal temperatures are forecast for the northwestern and north-central CONUS. Above normal temperatures remain likely (greater than 60 percent) across the Southwest, due to good agreement among both dynamical and statistical guidance. The area of favored above-normal temperatures is expanded to include much of California due to a stronger signal in this month’s consolidation.
Winter Precipitation Outlook
Model and statistical guidance remains generally consistent from previous months depicting elevated probabilities of below normal precipitation for much of the southern CONUS, and increased chances of above normal precipitation for the Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes, and parts of the Northeast during October, November, and December. However, despite dynamical models favoring below-normal precipitation in the Southeast, Equal Chances is indicated due to the potential for tropical activity early in the season and increased probabilities for a wet October. Precipitation consolidation guidance has trended wetter across the northern tier of the CONUS, resulting in an expansion of elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities across parts of the northern High Plains and Great Lakes relative to last month. Above-normal precipitation is favored for northern and western Alaska.
Impacts and Outlooks for Your Region
Map of the United States depicting the Seasonal Precipitation Outlook for October–December 2024.
- Alaska and Northwestern Canada Region
- Great Lakes Region
- Gulf Coast Region
- Gulf of Maine Region
- Mid-Atlantic Region
- Midwest Region
- Missouri River Basin Region
- Prairies and High Plains Region
- Northeast Region
- Pacific Region
- Southeast Region
- Southern Region
- Western Region
Creating These Quarterly Summaries
NOAA’s Regional Climate Services lead the production of these quarterly summaries of climate impacts and outlooks for various regions of the United States as well as parts of Canada along the border. This effort, which began in 2012, includes 13 unique regional products that are produced collaboratively with partner organizations.
You can access all of the Climate Impacts and Outlooks summaries as well as additional reports and assessments through the U.S. Drought Portal Reports web page at Drought.gov.
