Every February 2, a crowd of thousands gathers at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, to await a special forecast from a groundhog named Phil. According to legend, if the 20-pound groundhog emerges and sees his shadow, the U.S. can expect six more weeks of winter weather. But, if Phil doesn’t see his shadow, we can expect warmer temperatures and the arrival of an early spring.
Even though he’s been forecasting since 1887, Phil’s track record for the entire country isn’t perfect. To determine just how accurate he is, we’ve compared U.S. national temperatures with Phil’s forecasts. On average, Phil has gotten it right 30% of the time over the past 10 years.
Phil’s Last Forecast
In 2024, Phil forecast an “early spring" when he didn’t see his shadow and predicted six weeks of spring temperatures. In fact, the contiguous United States saw above average temperatures in February and above average temperatures in March of last year. Phil was spot on in his forecast.
February 2024
The average contiguous U.S. temperature during February 2024 was 40.8°F. It was 7.0°F above the 20th century average. 2024 was the third-warmest February in the 130-year period of record.
Temperatures were above average across most of the contiguous U.S., while record-warm temperatures were observed across much of the Mississippi Valley and in parts of the Great Lakes and southern Plains. For the month of February, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Missouri ranked warmest on record. An additional 20 states ranked among their top-10 warmest February on record. The Alaska statewide February temperature was 10.3°F, 5.5°F above the long-term average, ranking in the middle third of the 100-year period of record for the state.
March 2024
March 2024 was warmer than average in the contiguous U.S. The average temperature was 45.0°F, 3.5°F above the 20th-century average.
Temperatures were above average across much of the contiguous U.S., while below-average temperatures were observed in small pockets of the West and Southwest. For the month of March, Connecticut, and Delaware each had their eighth warmest March on record. Nine additional states ranked among their top-10 warmest March on record. The Alaska statewide March temperature was 14.1°F, 3.3°F above the long-term average, ranking in the warmest third of the 100-year period of record for the state.
Phil’s First Forecast
In 1887, when he made his debut as the official groundhog forecaster for the entire country, Phil saw his shadow. His first prediction of six more weeks of winter was accurate for a few regions, but it came up short for several others.
According to the February 1887 Monthly Weather Review, the Northeast, Great Lakes region, and West saw temperatures well below normal. The Southeast and Gulf states saw temperatures well above normal during the month. According to the March 1887 Monthly Weather Review, the Northeast, Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley, and Southeast saw temperatures well below normal. Areas west of the Mississippi River valley saw temperatures above normal.
Predicting the Arrival of Spring Is Difficult
Predicting the arrival of springtime for an entire country—especially one with such varied regional climates like the United States—isn’t easy! Phil’s track record is evidence of that. However, if you’re interested in doing your own analysis for your region, check out our Climate at a Glance tool to access historical U.S. monthly temperature data. More of Phil’s past predictions are also available from the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club.
For an overview of some fun facts about Groundhog Day and the accuracy of the furry forecaster, check out our infographic.
To see the latest climate outlooks, visit NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. For the current weather forecast in your area, check out your local National Weather Service forecast office.
