RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT168X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT168X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 757 1 Simmental, Iffigenalp DENSITY_MAXIMUM LADE - 757 2 Switzerland European Larch 1900 4624-726 1681 1986 - 757 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 757161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1898 1898 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 757161 1777 1971 195 0.871 0.063 -0.517 3.819 0.064 0.394 2 757162 1786 1968 183 0.988 0.094 -1.501 6.248 0.072 0.456 3 757171 1702 1986 285 0.889 0.084 -1.669 7.245 0.080 0.329 4 757172 1739 1986 248 0.871 0.083 -1.522 6.780 0.078 0.430 5 757181 1681 1986 306 0.917 0.147 -0.963 2.997 0.094 0.714 6 757182 1755 1986 232 0.897 0.130 -0.681 2.594 0.109 0.550 7 757191 1825 1982 158 0.807 0.094 -0.833 4.163 0.108 0.252 8 757192 1771 1982 212 0.862 0.099 -1.266 5.534 0.082 0.499 9 757201 1848 1982 135 0.823 0.105 -0.803 3.723 0.095 0.523 10 757202 1831 1982 152 0.721 0.135 -0.875 3.067 0.109 0.773 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 10 FROM 1681 TO 1986 306 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 0.865 0.103 -1.063 4.617 0.089 0.492 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.071 0.026 0.397 1.695 0.016 0.160 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 203 0.871 0.097 -0.919 3.991 0.088 0.477 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.074 0.045 0.698 3.181 0.030 0.155 MINIMUM VALUE 135 0.721 0.063 -1.669 2.594 0.064 0.252 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 0.823 0.084 -1.501 3.067 0.078 0.394 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 0.897 0.130 -0.803 6.248 0.108 0.550 MAXIMUM VALUE 306 0.988 0.147 -0.517 7.245 0.109 0.773 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.396 0.159 0.024 -0.020 2.359 0.105 0.712 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.105 SERIES 757161 AND 757181 195 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.712 SERIES 757181 AND 757202 152 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 3. 6. 21. 21. 36. 45. 45. 45. RBAR 0.587 0.436 0.646 0.617 0.599 0.445 0.609 0.559 0.371 SDEV 0.000 0.058 0.110 0.161 0.201 0.182 0.156 0.160 0.190 SERR 0.000 0.033 0.045 0.035 0.044 0.030 0.023 0.024 0.028 EPS 0.794 0.774 0.919 0.923 0.929 0.888 0.940 0.927 0.855 NSS 2.7 4.4 6.2 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.0 10.0 10.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1681 1986 306 0.888 0.079 -0.862 3.854 0.072 0.435 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.281 -0.159 0.229 49 257 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.44 1.32 1.00 1.08 2.41 53.79 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.18 0.00 0.82 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 204. 90. 135. 158. 248. 306. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.434 0.342 0.315 0.261 0.220 0.255 0.203 0.127 0.156 0.094 PACF 0.434 0.189 0.144 0.064 0.035 0.109 0.014 -0.054 0.044 -0.044 95% C.L. 0.114 0.134 0.145 0.154 0.159 0.163 0.168 0.172 0.173 0.175 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.241 0.325 0.140 0.147 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 757161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031499 0.83973134 2 757162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005340 0.98306549 3 757171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017071 0.91297358 4 757172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005218 0.86439008 5 757181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00082443 1.04305387 6 757182 1 0.24385153 0.00617803 0.00000000 0.76822913 7 757191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029943 0.78334755 8 757192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030922 0.82933199 9 757201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00121369 0.90556771 10 757202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00214835 0.88540173 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 757161 1777 1971 195 1.000 0.069 -0.541 3.526 0.063 0.344 2 757162 1786 1968 183 1.000 0.095 -1.529 6.304 0.072 0.451 3 757171 1702 1986 285 1.000 0.094 -1.559 7.103 0.080 0.310 4 757172 1739 1986 248 1.000 0.095 -1.538 6.821 0.078 0.427 5 757181 1681 1986 306 1.000 0.143 -0.577 2.925 0.094 0.632 6 757182 1755 1986 232 1.000 0.135 -0.530 2.993 0.108 0.459 7 757191 1825 1982 158 1.000 0.115 -0.791 4.095 0.107 0.236 8 757192 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.113 -1.386 5.818 0.082 0.477 9 757201 1848 1982 135 1.000 0.116 -0.538 4.069 0.094 0.390 10 757202 1831 1982 152 0.999 0.147 0.021 3.569 0.108 0.547 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 1.000 0.112 -0.897 4.722 0.089 0.427 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.000 0.025 0.561 1.618 0.016 0.115 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.114 -0.684 4.082 0.088 0.439 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.000 0.040 0.991 2.778 0.030 0.133 MINIMUM VALUE 135 0.999 0.069 -1.559 2.925 0.063 0.236 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 1.000 0.095 -1.529 3.526 0.078 0.344 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 1.000 0.135 -0.538 6.304 0.107 0.477 MAXIMUM VALUE 306 1.000 0.147 0.021 7.103 0.108 0.632 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 757161 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 757162 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 757171 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 757172 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 757181 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 757182 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 757191 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 757192 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 757201 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 757202 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 757161 1777 1971 195 1.000 0.068 -0.601 3.681 0.063 0.327 2 757162 1786 1968 183 1.000 0.084 -1.475 6.705 0.071 0.297 3 757171 1702 1986 285 1.000 0.093 -1.618 7.516 0.080 0.290 4 757172 1739 1986 248 1.000 0.090 -1.622 7.190 0.078 0.359 5 757181 1681 1986 306 0.999 0.118 -0.761 3.685 0.094 0.442 6 757182 1755 1986 232 1.000 0.131 -0.593 3.103 0.108 0.426 7 757191 1825 1982 158 1.000 0.107 -0.965 5.003 0.107 0.116 8 757192 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.109 -1.507 6.174 0.082 0.448 9 757201 1848 1982 135 1.000 0.107 -0.747 4.866 0.094 0.293 10 757202 1831 1982 152 0.999 0.131 0.468 4.895 0.108 0.386 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 1.000 0.104 -0.942 5.282 0.089 0.338 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.000 0.020 0.651 1.553 0.016 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.107 -0.863 4.949 0.088 0.343 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.000 0.027 0.906 3.020 0.030 0.133 MINIMUM VALUE 135 0.999 0.068 -1.622 3.103 0.063 0.116 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 1.000 0.090 -1.507 3.685 0.078 0.293 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 1.000 0.118 -0.601 6.705 0.107 0.426 MAXIMUM VALUE 306 1.000 0.131 0.468 7.516 0.108 0.448 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.457 0.111 0.017 0.293 3.277 0.252 0.778 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.252 SERIES 757191 AND 757202 152 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.778 SERIES 757171 AND 757172 248 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 3. 6. 21. 21. 36. 45. 45. 45. RBAR 0.609 0.487 0.626 0.624 0.621 0.469 0.604 0.579 0.411 SDEV 0.000 0.109 0.118 0.155 0.200 0.180 0.153 0.152 0.160 SERR 0.000 0.063 0.048 0.034 0.044 0.030 0.023 0.023 0.024 EPS 0.809 0.807 0.912 0.925 0.935 0.897 0.939 0.932 0.875 NSS 2.7 4.4 6.2 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.0 10.0 10.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1681 1986 306 1.002 0.078 -1.199 5.239 0.071 0.275 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.290 -0.154 0.212 64 242 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.49 2.11 1.00 1.13 3.24 101.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.16 0.00 0.84 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.274 0.161 0.127 0.100 0.038 0.074 0.010 -0.046 -0.014 -0.073 PACF 0.274 0.093 0.067 0.043 -0.018 0.052 -0.034 -0.063 0.005 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.114 0.123 0.125 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.088 0.249 0.095 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.317 0.149 0.094 0.085 -0.015 0.040 -0.013 -0.032 -0.024 -0.050 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.317 2 0.301 0.053 3 0.299 0.042 0.036 4 0.297 0.040 0.023 0.043 5 0.300 0.042 0.026 0.063 -0.068 6 0.304 0.038 0.025 0.061 -0.085 0.057 7 0.306 0.035 0.027 0.062 -0.084 0.070 -0.043 8 0.305 0.036 0.025 0.064 -0.083 0.071 -0.035 -0.026 9 0.305 0.037 0.025 0.064 -0.083 0.071 -0.035 -0.026 0.000 10 0.305 0.035 0.023 0.067 -0.087 0.074 -0.034 -0.024 0.016 -0.050 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1426.19 1395.70 1396.84 1398.43 1399.86 1400.43 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1401.44 1402.87 1404.66 1406.66 1407.89 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.317 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 10.07 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 111.20 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.317 0.101 0.032 0.010 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 757161 1 0.119 0.328 2 757162 1 0.112 0.302 3 757171 1 0.086 0.290 4 757172 1 0.133 0.359 5 757181 1 0.216 0.444 6 757182 1 0.184 0.428 7 757191 1 0.022 0.117 8 757192 1 0.242 0.469 9 757201 1 0.093 0.296 10 757202 1 0.164 0.405 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.137 0.344 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.066 0.103 MEDIAN 1 0.126 0.343 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.091 0.132 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.022 0.117 LOWER HINGE 1 0.093 0.296 UPPER HINGE 1 0.184 0.428 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.242 0.469 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 757161 1777 1971 195 1.000 0.065 -0.394 3.793 0.074 -0.037 2 757162 1786 1968 183 1.000 0.080 -1.442 7.488 0.082 -0.040 3 757171 1702 1986 285 1.000 0.089 -1.381 6.997 0.090 -0.013 4 757172 1739 1986 248 1.000 0.084 -1.440 7.004 0.093 -0.026 5 757181 1681 1986 306 1.000 0.106 -0.608 3.844 0.118 -0.068 6 757182 1755 1986 232 1.000 0.118 -0.641 3.903 0.131 -0.017 7 757191 1825 1982 158 1.000 0.106 -0.947 5.324 0.114 -0.011 8 757192 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.096 -1.545 8.105 0.103 -0.081 9 757201 1848 1982 135 1.000 0.102 -0.799 5.269 0.111 -0.018 10 757202 1831 1982 152 1.000 0.119 0.387 4.241 0.124 0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 1.000 0.096 -0.881 5.597 0.104 -0.030 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.000 0.017 0.606 1.667 0.019 0.027 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.099 -0.873 5.296 0.107 -0.022 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.000 0.022 0.831 3.101 0.028 0.027 MINIMUM VALUE 135 1.000 0.065 -1.545 3.793 0.074 -0.081 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 1.000 0.084 -1.440 3.903 0.090 -0.040 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 1.000 0.106 -0.608 7.004 0.118 -0.013 MAXIMUM VALUE 306 1.000 0.119 0.387 8.105 0.131 0.010 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.484 0.109 0.016 0.494 3.132 0.281 0.781 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.281 SERIES 757182 AND 757201 135 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.781 SERIES 757171 AND 757172 248 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 3. 6. 21. 21. 36. 45. 45. 45. RBAR 0.634 0.548 0.651 0.640 0.653 0.533 0.595 0.536 0.435 SDEV 0.000 0.115 0.098 0.143 0.158 0.148 0.137 0.157 0.153 SERR 0.000 0.066 0.040 0.031 0.035 0.025 0.020 0.023 0.023 EPS 0.825 0.843 0.921 0.930 0.943 0.918 0.936 0.920 0.885 NSS 2.7 4.4 6.2 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.0 10.0 10.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1681 1986 306 1.001 0.074 -1.081 5.873 0.083 -0.114 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.165 -0.082 0.133 65 241 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.69 2.70 1.01 1.17 3.87 222.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.17 0.00 0.83 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.114 0.038 0.049 0.042 -0.023 0.078 0.008 -0.028 0.027 -0.088 PACF -0.114 0.025 0.057 0.053 -0.016 0.069 0.021 -0.031 0.013 -0.092 95% C.L. 0.114 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.014 -0.114 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.031 0.059 0.046 -0.009 0.079 0.014 -0.025 0.015 -0.084 PACF 0.003 0.031 0.059 0.045 -0.013 0.073 0.009 -0.030 0.006 -0.092 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1681 1986 306 1.001 0.078 -1.338 5.837 0.068 0.337 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.336 0.155 0.116 0.081 0.040 0.083 0.030 -0.017 -0.016 -0.079 PACF 0.336 0.048 0.057 0.023 -0.005 0.069 -0.026 -0.037 -0.010 -0.082 95% C.L. 0.114 0.127 0.129 0.130 0.131 0.131 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.132 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.116 0.337 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.59 MINUTES