RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT168L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT168L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 757 1 Simmental, Iffigenalp WIDTH_LATE LADE - 757 2 Switzerland European Larch 1900 4624-726 1681 1986 - 757 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 757161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1898 1898 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 757181 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1952 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 757161 1777 1971 195 0.343 0.285 3.177 16.669 0.400 0.659 2 757162 1786 1968 183 0.270 0.144 1.221 4.615 0.402 0.526 3 757171 1702 1986 285 0.318 0.225 1.517 5.801 0.396 0.704 4 757172 1739 1986 248 0.293 0.236 2.914 15.608 0.401 0.530 5 757181 1681 1986 306 0.173 0.110 3.033 16.147 0.246 0.743 6 757182 1755 1986 232 0.122 0.044 1.934 11.047 0.238 0.521 7 757191 1825 1982 158 0.477 0.374 2.409 11.343 0.341 0.695 8 757192 1771 1982 212 0.170 0.128 2.564 9.301 0.325 0.719 9 757201 1848 1982 135 0.302 0.168 1.476 5.615 0.330 0.625 10 757202 1831 1982 152 0.230 0.177 3.851 21.669 0.237 0.745 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 10 FROM 1681 TO 1986 306 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 0.270 0.189 2.410 11.781 0.332 0.647 STANDARD DEVIATION 56 0.103 0.094 0.859 5.651 0.070 0.091 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 203 0.281 0.173 2.487 11.195 0.336 0.677 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.144 0.108 1.515 10.346 0.154 0.189 MINIMUM VALUE 135 0.122 0.044 1.221 4.615 0.237 0.521 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 0.173 0.128 1.517 5.801 0.246 0.530 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 0.318 0.236 3.033 16.147 0.400 0.719 MAXIMUM VALUE 301 0.477 0.374 3.851 21.669 0.402 0.745 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.402 0.191 0.028 -0.606 2.701 -0.056 0.662 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.056 SERIES 757181 AND 757201 135 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.662 SERIES 757181 AND 757182 232 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 3. 6. 21. 21. 36. 45. 45. 45. RBAR 0.594 0.366 0.582 0.496 0.428 0.428 0.426 0.438 0.370 SDEV 0.000 0.070 0.106 0.194 0.245 0.186 0.174 0.186 0.247 SERR 0.000 0.040 0.043 0.042 0.053 0.031 0.026 0.028 0.037 EPS 0.799 0.718 0.897 0.881 0.869 0.880 0.881 0.886 0.854 NSS 2.7 4.4 6.2 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.0 10.0 10.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1681 1986 306 0.262 0.146 2.115 10.117 0.289 0.697 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.640 0.458 0.007 108 198 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 4.03 8.84 1.03 1.69 10.53 790.62 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.19 0.00 0.81 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 204. 90. 135. 158. 248. 306. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.694 0.555 0.436 0.411 0.349 0.341 0.380 0.396 0.368 0.377 PACF 0.694 0.141 0.013 0.136 -0.003 0.083 0.167 0.068 -0.001 0.100 95% C.L. 0.114 0.160 0.184 0.197 0.208 0.215 0.222 0.230 0.239 0.246 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.493 0.596 0.142 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 757161 1 0.91845995 0.03888215 0.00000000 0.22339050 2 757162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00095662 0.35795471 3 757171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00163109 0.55093032 4 757172 1 0.64402425 0.03267372 0.00000000 0.21462074 5 757181 1 0.25303772 0.00894727 0.00000000 0.08707035 6 757182 1 0.04822579 0.01246778 0.00000000 0.10611897 7 757191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00253343 0.27523825 8 757192 1 0.46864063 0.04299085 0.00000000 0.11954421 9 757201 1 0.41397005 0.02616462 0.00000000 0.19008860 10 757202 1 0.76773262 0.07445049 0.00000000 0.16511428 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 757161 1777 1971 195 1.001 0.515 1.008 4.088 0.399 0.471 2 757162 1786 1968 183 0.999 0.486 1.121 4.161 0.400 0.449 3 757171 1702 1986 285 1.029 0.570 1.097 4.200 0.395 0.572 4 757172 1739 1986 248 1.000 0.589 1.539 6.199 0.400 0.471 5 757181 1681 1986 306 1.002 0.424 1.992 10.340 0.244 0.637 6 757182 1755 1986 232 1.000 0.339 1.558 9.614 0.237 0.481 7 757191 1825 1982 158 1.008 0.740 1.958 7.365 0.339 0.681 8 757192 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.420 1.558 7.599 0.323 0.399 9 757201 1848 1982 135 1.000 0.425 1.170 5.015 0.328 0.388 10 757202 1831 1982 152 1.001 0.342 1.238 4.498 0.235 0.447 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 1.004 0.485 1.424 6.308 0.330 0.500 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.009 0.124 0.354 2.331 0.070 0.098 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.456 1.388 5.607 0.334 0.471 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.002 0.151 0.437 3.399 0.155 0.126 MINIMUM VALUE 135 0.999 0.339 1.008 4.088 0.235 0.388 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 1.000 0.420 1.121 4.200 0.244 0.447 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 1.002 0.570 1.558 7.599 0.399 0.572 MAXIMUM VALUE 306 1.029 0.740 1.992 10.340 0.400 0.681 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 757161 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 757162 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 757171 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 757172 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 757181 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 757182 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 757191 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 757192 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 757201 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 757202 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 757161 1777 1971 195 0.997 0.501 0.934 3.948 0.399 0.445 2 757162 1786 1968 183 0.996 0.472 1.189 4.700 0.399 0.405 3 757171 1702 1986 285 0.995 0.537 1.297 4.917 0.395 0.539 4 757172 1739 1986 248 0.996 0.588 1.736 7.401 0.400 0.467 5 757181 1681 1986 306 0.994 0.367 2.174 11.702 0.244 0.526 6 757182 1755 1986 232 0.998 0.330 1.671 10.468 0.237 0.453 7 757191 1825 1982 158 0.972 0.606 1.932 7.270 0.339 0.609 8 757192 1771 1982 212 0.999 0.417 1.621 8.090 0.323 0.385 9 757201 1848 1982 135 0.999 0.420 1.131 4.784 0.329 0.378 10 757202 1831 1982 152 0.999 0.330 1.408 5.505 0.235 0.374 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 0.995 0.457 1.509 6.879 0.330 0.458 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.008 0.101 0.386 2.614 0.070 0.079 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 203 0.996 0.446 1.515 6.388 0.334 0.449 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.003 0.170 0.547 3.306 0.155 0.140 MINIMUM VALUE 135 0.972 0.330 0.934 3.948 0.235 0.374 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 0.995 0.367 1.189 4.784 0.244 0.385 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 0.999 0.537 1.736 8.090 0.399 0.526 MAXIMUM VALUE 306 0.999 0.606 2.174 11.702 0.400 0.609 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.413 0.126 0.019 0.284 2.751 0.187 0.696 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.187 SERIES 757161 AND 757201 124 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.696 SERIES 757181 AND 757182 232 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 3. 6. 21. 21. 36. 45. 45. 45. RBAR 0.561 0.436 0.610 0.461 0.487 0.402 0.438 0.462 0.408 SDEV 0.000 0.076 0.131 0.218 0.207 0.157 0.169 0.177 0.201 SERR 0.000 0.044 0.053 0.048 0.045 0.026 0.025 0.026 0.030 EPS 0.776 0.773 0.907 0.865 0.893 0.869 0.886 0.896 0.873 NSS 2.7 4.4 6.2 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.0 10.0 10.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1681 1986 306 0.967 0.350 1.397 6.218 0.265 0.491 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.555 0.296 -0.020 59 247 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.59 3.27 1.01 1.18 4.46 118.93 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.17 0.00 0.83 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.489 0.217 0.069 -0.004 -0.074 -0.057 -0.010 0.068 0.031 0.010 PACF 0.489 -0.029 -0.034 -0.026 -0.072 0.020 0.033 0.080 -0.056 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.114 0.139 0.143 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.145 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.240 0.490 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.452 0.117 -0.042 -0.087 -0.146 -0.136 -0.065 0.059 0.014 0.002 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.452 2 0.501 -0.110 3 0.494 -0.077 -0.065 4 0.492 -0.080 -0.047 -0.036 5 0.488 -0.085 -0.055 0.017 -0.108 6 0.484 -0.084 -0.057 0.014 -0.091 -0.035 7 0.485 -0.083 -0.058 0.015 -0.090 -0.042 0.014 8 0.483 -0.079 -0.050 0.013 -0.085 -0.035 -0.028 0.086 9 0.491 -0.082 -0.053 0.006 -0.084 -0.039 -0.035 0.130 -0.090 10 0.492 -0.083 -0.053 0.006 -0.083 -0.039 -0.034 0.130 -0.093 0.007 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2289.89 2221.99 2220.30 2221.01 2222.61 2221.00 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2222.62 2224.56 2224.27 2223.79 2225.77 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.501 -0.110 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 21.38 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 127.19 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.501 0.142 0.016 -0.007 -0.005 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 757161 2 0.202 0.424 0.049 2 757162 2 0.211 0.408 -0.005 3 757171 2 0.291 0.546 -0.013 4 757172 2 0.232 0.496 -0.050 5 757181 2 0.287 0.466 0.115 6 757182 2 0.217 0.438 0.033 7 757191 2 0.409 0.742 -0.201 8 757192 2 0.167 0.345 0.110 9 757201 2 0.162 0.407 -0.034 10 757202 2 0.158 0.385 -0.027 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.234 0.466 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.077 0.112 0.091 MEDIAN 2 0.214 0.431 -0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.119 0.088 0.083 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.158 0.345 -0.201 LOWER HINGE 2 0.167 0.407 -0.034 UPPER HINGE 2 0.287 0.496 0.049 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.409 0.742 0.115 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 757161 1777 1971 195 1.000 0.448 0.920 4.082 0.467 -0.001 2 757162 1786 1968 183 1.000 0.431 1.127 5.434 0.467 -0.001 3 757171 1702 1986 285 1.002 0.447 0.946 4.265 0.491 0.010 4 757172 1739 1986 248 1.004 0.506 1.680 8.007 0.484 0.026 5 757181 1681 1986 306 1.000 0.310 1.539 9.359 0.313 0.001 6 757182 1755 1986 232 1.000 0.294 1.423 7.720 0.298 -0.004 7 757191 1825 1982 158 1.000 0.466 1.642 7.043 0.458 -0.001 8 757192 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.382 1.915 10.528 0.377 -0.009 9 757201 1848 1982 135 1.000 0.386 1.225 5.692 0.395 0.015 10 757202 1831 1982 152 1.000 0.305 1.329 6.753 0.294 -0.003 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 1.001 0.397 1.375 6.888 0.404 0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.001 0.075 0.327 2.099 0.080 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.409 1.376 6.898 0.427 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.000 0.138 0.516 2.573 0.154 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 135 1.000 0.294 0.920 4.082 0.294 -0.009 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 1.000 0.310 1.127 5.434 0.313 -0.003 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 1.000 0.448 1.642 8.007 0.467 0.010 MAXIMUM VALUE 306 1.004 0.506 1.915 10.528 0.491 0.026 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.423 0.106 0.016 0.725 3.471 0.224 0.699 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.224 SERIES 757181 AND 757201 135 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.699 SERIES 757171 AND 757172 248 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 3. 6. 21. 21. 36. 45. 45. 45. RBAR 0.581 0.567 0.647 0.472 0.509 0.424 0.395 0.430 0.422 SDEV 0.000 0.045 0.085 0.183 0.137 0.121 0.155 0.152 0.162 SERR 0.000 0.026 0.035 0.040 0.030 0.020 0.023 0.023 0.024 EPS 0.790 0.853 0.919 0.870 0.901 0.879 0.867 0.883 0.880 NSS 2.7 4.4 6.2 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.0 10.0 10.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1681 1986 306 0.980 0.298 1.115 5.824 0.311 0.024 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.439 0.237 0.000 53 253 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.63 2.41 1.00 1.16 3.58 32.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.19 0.00 0.81 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.024 -0.011 -0.052 -0.010 -0.084 -0.089 -0.007 0.091 -0.017 -0.021 PACF 0.024 -0.011 -0.052 -0.007 -0.085 -0.089 -0.007 0.081 -0.031 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.001 -0.052 -0.007 -0.082 -0.086 -0.008 0.090 -0.018 -0.020 PACF -0.001 0.001 -0.052 -0.007 -0.082 -0.090 -0.010 0.082 -0.028 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.003 -0.001 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1681 1986 306 0.980 0.336 1.426 6.586 0.259 0.448 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.447 0.093 -0.058 -0.087 -0.137 -0.120 -0.018 0.067 0.018 -0.001 PACF 0.447 -0.134 -0.057 -0.030 -0.105 -0.026 0.054 0.043 -0.068 0.010 95% C.L. 0.114 0.135 0.136 0.136 0.137 0.139 0.140 0.140 0.141 0.141 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.217 0.507 -0.133 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.20 MINUTES