RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT168I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT168I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 757 1 Simmental, Iffigenalp DENSITY_EARLY LADE - 757 2 Switzerland European Larch 1900 4624-726 1681 1986 - 757 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 757161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1898 1898 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 757161 1777 1971 195 3.690 0.262 1.028 4.195 0.060 0.370 2 757162 1786 1968 183 3.840 0.316 0.595 5.077 0.070 0.272 3 757171 1702 1986 285 3.569 0.263 0.460 6.227 0.059 0.420 4 757172 1739 1986 248 3.420 0.255 0.060 3.637 0.067 0.305 5 757181 1681 1986 306 3.683 0.272 0.733 4.497 0.061 0.345 6 757182 1755 1986 232 3.673 0.275 0.709 4.602 0.070 0.222 7 757191 1825 1982 158 3.242 0.239 0.207 2.873 0.045 0.622 8 757192 1771 1982 212 3.059 0.386 1.572 5.894 0.066 0.725 9 757201 1848 1982 135 3.204 0.341 0.036 2.656 0.054 0.799 10 757202 1831 1982 152 3.054 0.348 -0.550 3.664 0.059 0.758 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 10 FROM 1681 TO 1986 306 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 3.443 0.296 0.485 4.332 0.061 0.484 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.287 0.049 0.590 1.182 0.008 0.219 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 203 3.494 0.273 0.528 4.346 0.061 0.395 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.479 0.079 0.673 1.441 0.008 0.420 MINIMUM VALUE 135 3.054 0.239 -0.550 2.656 0.045 0.222 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 3.204 0.262 0.060 3.637 0.059 0.305 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 3.683 0.341 0.733 5.077 0.067 0.725 MAXIMUM VALUE 306 3.840 0.386 1.572 6.227 0.070 0.799 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.205 0.244 0.036 -0.082 2.535 -0.302 0.744 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.302 SERIES 757191 AND 757202 152 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.744 SERIES 757201 AND 757202 135 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 3. 6. 21. 21. 36. 45. 45. 45. RBAR 0.136 0.076 0.089 0.281 0.339 0.247 0.292 0.257 0.322 SDEV 0.000 0.144 0.121 0.154 0.172 0.186 0.160 0.173 0.203 SERR 0.000 0.083 0.049 0.034 0.038 0.031 0.024 0.026 0.030 EPS 0.301 0.267 0.379 0.745 0.819 0.764 0.805 0.775 0.826 NSS 2.7 4.4 6.2 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.0 10.0 10.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1681 1986 306 3.521 0.203 0.309 3.847 0.044 0.463 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.331 -0.275 1.267 25 281 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.42 1.01 1.04 1.47 74.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.17 0.00 0.83 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 204. 90. 135. 158. 248. 306. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.461 0.499 0.481 0.463 0.464 0.438 0.402 0.415 0.441 0.399 PACF 0.461 0.364 0.244 0.165 0.144 0.085 0.022 0.059 0.117 0.037 95% C.L. 0.114 0.137 0.159 0.177 0.192 0.206 0.218 0.227 0.237 0.248 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.395 0.130 0.205 0.162 0.121 0.128 0.085 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 757161 1 0.55364436 0.02378506 0.00000000 3.57294703 2 757162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00186952 4.01205063 3 757171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00148528 3.78109622 4 757172 1 0.19891453 0.01169990 0.00000000 3.35588169 5 757181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011472 3.70015812 6 757182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00155835 3.49112415 7 757191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00311465 2.99390459 8 757192 1 1.17761421 0.01458676 0.00000000 2.69780016 9 757201 1 3.07348657 0.00300430 0.00000000 0.68122023 10 757202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00610061 3.52077556 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 757161 1777 1971 195 1.000 0.060 1.372 6.059 0.060 0.136 2 757162 1786 1968 183 1.000 0.078 0.836 4.828 0.070 0.202 3 757171 1702 1986 285 1.000 0.065 0.968 8.373 0.058 0.249 4 757172 1739 1986 248 1.000 0.073 0.121 3.720 0.067 0.273 5 757181 1681 1986 306 1.000 0.074 0.733 4.445 0.061 0.343 6 757182 1755 1986 232 1.000 0.069 0.735 4.964 0.070 0.088 7 757191 1825 1982 158 1.000 0.059 -0.136 3.679 0.044 0.417 8 757192 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.073 0.574 5.416 0.065 0.233 9 757201 1848 1982 135 1.000 0.053 -0.481 5.189 0.053 0.201 10 757202 1831 1982 152 1.000 0.076 -0.057 3.949 0.059 0.418 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 1.000 0.068 0.466 5.062 0.061 0.256 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.000 0.008 0.579 1.394 0.008 0.110 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.071 0.653 4.896 0.060 0.241 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.000 0.013 0.893 1.466 0.008 0.142 MINIMUM VALUE 135 1.000 0.053 -0.481 3.679 0.044 0.088 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 1.000 0.060 -0.057 3.949 0.058 0.201 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 1.000 0.074 0.836 5.416 0.067 0.343 MAXIMUM VALUE 306 1.000 0.078 1.372 8.373 0.070 0.418 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 757161 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 757162 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 757171 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 757172 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 757181 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 757182 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 757191 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 757192 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 757201 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 757202 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 757161 1777 1971 195 1.000 0.060 1.427 6.274 0.060 0.125 2 757162 1786 1968 183 1.000 0.072 1.096 4.855 0.070 0.072 3 757171 1702 1986 285 1.000 0.063 0.849 8.103 0.058 0.188 4 757172 1739 1986 248 1.000 0.071 0.106 3.808 0.067 0.219 5 757181 1681 1986 306 1.000 0.068 0.931 4.699 0.061 0.221 6 757182 1755 1986 232 1.000 0.068 0.685 4.949 0.070 0.064 7 757191 1825 1982 158 1.000 0.055 -0.270 4.086 0.044 0.352 8 757192 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.072 0.534 5.375 0.065 0.218 9 757201 1848 1982 135 1.000 0.052 -0.590 5.606 0.053 0.162 10 757202 1831 1982 152 1.000 0.071 0.306 4.191 0.059 0.322 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 1.000 0.065 0.507 5.194 0.061 0.194 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.000 0.007 0.626 1.265 0.008 0.095 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.068 0.610 4.902 0.060 0.203 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.000 0.011 0.826 1.415 0.008 0.095 MINIMUM VALUE 135 1.000 0.052 -0.590 3.808 0.044 0.064 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 1.000 0.060 0.106 4.191 0.058 0.125 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 1.000 0.071 0.931 5.606 0.067 0.221 MAXIMUM VALUE 306 1.000 0.072 1.427 8.103 0.070 0.352 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.247 0.106 0.016 0.393 2.435 0.046 0.479 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.046 SERIES 757161 AND 757202 141 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.479 SERIES 757171 AND 757172 248 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 3. 6. 21. 21. 36. 45. 45. 45. RBAR 0.188 0.091 0.092 0.278 0.364 0.254 0.289 0.299 0.283 SDEV 0.000 0.194 0.132 0.154 0.140 0.173 0.152 0.157 0.151 SERR 0.000 0.112 0.054 0.034 0.031 0.029 0.023 0.023 0.023 EPS 0.387 0.308 0.388 0.742 0.834 0.770 0.803 0.810 0.798 NSS 2.7 4.4 6.2 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.0 10.0 10.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1681 1986 306 0.998 0.041 0.666 5.750 0.043 0.025 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.150 0.093 -0.046 64 242 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.39 1.12 1.01 1.10 2.23 9.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.16 0.00 0.84 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.025 0.127 0.076 0.027 0.070 0.036 -0.023 0.021 0.036 0.024 PACF 0.025 0.127 0.071 0.008 0.052 0.025 -0.043 0.006 0.039 0.020 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.022 0.022 0.128 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.044 0.084 0.043 -0.039 0.087 0.021 -0.075 -0.003 -0.026 0.034 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.044 2 -0.041 0.083 3 -0.045 0.085 0.050 4 -0.043 0.088 0.048 -0.042 5 -0.039 0.085 0.041 -0.039 0.077 6 -0.042 0.086 0.040 -0.042 0.078 0.033 7 -0.039 0.093 0.036 -0.038 0.086 0.030 -0.085 8 -0.041 0.093 0.038 -0.039 0.086 0.032 -0.086 -0.023 9 -0.041 0.092 0.039 -0.038 0.086 0.032 -0.085 -0.023 -0.009 10 -0.041 0.093 0.042 -0.040 0.083 0.033 -0.087 -0.027 -0.007 0.037 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 996.40 997.80 997.70 998.93 1000.39 1000.57 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1002.23 1002.00 1003.84 1005.82 1007.39 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 757161 0 0.016 2 757162 0 0.005 3 757171 0 0.036 4 757172 0 0.048 5 757181 0 0.049 6 757182 0 0.004 7 757191 0 0.125 8 757192 0 0.051 9 757201 0 0.027 10 757202 0 0.112 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.047 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.041 MEDIAN 0 0.042 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.036 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.004 LOWER HINGE 0 0.016 UPPER HINGE 0 0.051 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.125 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 757161 1777 1971 195 1.000 0.060 1.427 6.273 0.060 0.125 2 757162 1786 1968 183 1.000 0.072 1.096 4.855 0.070 0.072 3 757171 1702 1986 285 1.000 0.063 0.849 8.103 0.058 0.188 4 757172 1739 1986 248 1.000 0.071 0.106 3.808 0.067 0.219 5 757181 1681 1986 306 1.000 0.068 0.931 4.699 0.061 0.221 6 757182 1755 1986 232 1.000 0.068 0.685 4.949 0.070 0.064 7 757191 1825 1982 158 1.000 0.055 -0.270 4.086 0.044 0.352 8 757192 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.072 0.534 5.375 0.065 0.218 9 757201 1848 1982 135 1.000 0.052 -0.590 5.606 0.053 0.162 10 757202 1831 1982 152 1.000 0.071 0.306 4.191 0.059 0.322 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 1.000 0.065 0.507 5.194 0.061 0.194 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.000 0.007 0.626 1.265 0.008 0.095 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.068 0.610 4.902 0.060 0.203 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.000 0.011 0.826 1.415 0.008 0.095 MINIMUM VALUE 135 1.000 0.052 -0.590 3.808 0.044 0.064 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 158 1.000 0.060 0.106 4.191 0.058 0.125 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 1.000 0.071 0.931 5.606 0.067 0.221 MAXIMUM VALUE 306 1.000 0.072 1.427 8.103 0.070 0.352 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.247 0.106 0.016 0.393 2.435 0.046 0.479 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.046 SERIES 757161 AND 757202 141 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.479 SERIES 757171 AND 757172 248 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 3. 6. 21. 21. 36. 45. 45. 45. RBAR 0.188 0.091 0.092 0.278 0.364 0.254 0.289 0.299 0.283 SDEV 0.000 0.194 0.132 0.154 0.140 0.173 0.152 0.157 0.151 SERR 0.000 0.112 0.054 0.034 0.031 0.029 0.023 0.023 0.023 EPS 0.387 0.308 0.388 0.742 0.834 0.770 0.803 0.810 0.798 NSS 2.7 4.4 6.2 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.0 10.0 10.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1681 1986 306 0.998 0.041 0.666 5.750 0.043 0.025 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.150 0.093 -0.046 64 242 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.40 1.12 1.01 1.10 2.22 9.26 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.16 0.00 0.84 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.025 0.127 0.076 0.027 0.070 0.036 -0.024 0.021 0.036 0.023 PACF 0.025 0.127 0.071 0.008 0.052 0.025 -0.043 0.006 0.039 0.020 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.022 0.022 0.127 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1681 1986 306 0.998 0.041 0.666 5.750 0.043 0.025 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.025 0.127 0.076 0.027 0.070 0.036 -0.024 0.021 0.036 0.023 PACF 0.025 0.127 0.071 0.008 0.052 0.025 -0.043 0.006 0.039 0.020 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.022 0.022 0.127 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.21 MINUTES