RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT163P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT163P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 608 1 Toppwald BE, Fi.Vergl.Pr LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCAB - 608 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 875 4652-741 1841 1979 - 608 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608311 1901 1979 79 2.062 0.610 -0.046 2.683 0.236 0.375 2 608312 1897 1979 83 1.924 0.496 -0.149 2.492 0.237 0.365 3 608321 1889 1979 91 2.747 1.041 0.267 3.363 0.255 0.650 4 608322 1885 1979 95 2.495 1.122 0.314 2.660 0.307 0.664 5 608331 1873 1979 107 2.591 0.830 0.617 2.961 0.302 0.352 6 608332 1871 1979 109 2.789 1.048 0.980 4.886 0.292 0.558 7 608341 1895 1979 85 2.613 0.741 -0.049 3.219 0.283 0.340 8 608342 1896 1979 84 2.739 0.812 1.005 4.446 0.241 0.418 9 608351 1902 1979 78 1.929 0.746 0.726 4.475 0.334 0.401 10 608352 1874 1979 106 2.053 0.671 0.483 3.891 0.273 0.422 11 608361 1842 1979 138 2.936 0.889 0.106 2.778 0.241 0.535 12 608362 1842 1979 138 3.081 0.849 0.152 2.646 0.242 0.437 13 608371 1855 1979 125 2.604 0.674 -0.220 2.917 0.246 0.306 14 608372 1850 1979 130 2.430 0.663 -0.117 3.091 0.281 0.221 15 608381 1879 1979 101 1.834 0.561 1.153 5.678 0.262 0.336 16 608382 1877 1979 103 1.698 0.437 0.580 3.704 0.261 0.092 17 608391 1877 1979 103 2.629 0.800 0.948 4.269 0.271 0.195 18 608392 1869 1979 111 2.894 1.008 0.840 4.622 0.350 0.186 19 608401 1870 1979 110 2.523 0.761 0.174 2.515 0.289 0.262 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608402 1870 1979 110 3.002 0.950 -0.117 3.410 0.329 0.222 21 608411 1870 1979 110 2.736 0.633 0.413 3.819 0.215 0.314 22 608412 1873 1979 107 2.630 0.735 0.777 5.403 0.253 0.209 23 608421 1914 1979 66 2.536 0.922 0.626 2.838 0.370 0.087 24 608422 1905 1979 75 2.365 0.747 0.439 3.174 0.320 0.157 25 608431 1841 1979 139 2.477 0.833 0.063 2.809 0.262 0.561 26 608432 1853 1979 127 2.546 0.568 0.003 3.204 0.236 0.162 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1841 TO 1979 139 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 2.495 0.775 0.383 3.537 0.276 0.339 STANDARD DEVIATION 20 0.370 0.175 0.413 0.914 0.040 0.161 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 2.568 0.754 0.364 3.211 0.266 0.338 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.374 0.226 0.723 1.461 0.059 0.213 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.698 0.437 -0.220 2.492 0.215 0.087 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 85 2.365 0.663 0.003 2.809 0.242 0.209 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 111 2.739 0.889 0.726 4.269 0.302 0.422 MAXIMUM VALUE 139 3.081 1.122 1.153 5.678 0.370 0.664 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.242 0.187 0.010 -0.234 3.840 -0.448 0.749 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.448 SERIES 608322 AND 608431 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.749 SERIES 608421 AND 608422 66 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 66.51 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 91. 231. 325. RBAR 0.158 0.228 0.341 SDEV 0.229 0.199 0.162 SERR 0.024 0.013 0.009 EPS 0.803 0.883 0.931 NSS 21.7 25.6 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1979 139 2.416 0.456 -0.290 2.927 0.183 0.238 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.504 0.283 0.054 37 102 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.32 1.00 1.03 1.35 12.85 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 106. 26. 66. 85. 111. 139. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.236 0.314 0.226 0.336 0.194 0.239 0.223 0.179 0.080 0.202 PACF 0.236 0.273 0.123 0.229 0.037 0.070 0.081 -0.007 -0.091 0.084 95% C.L. 0.170 0.179 0.194 0.201 0.217 0.222 0.229 0.235 0.239 0.240 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.204 0.096 0.190 0.106 0.256 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 608311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00891845 1.70528722 2 608312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00241950 1.82283866 3 608321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01865568 1.88898170 4 608322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02293883 1.39367306 5 608331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00967672 3.11347723 6 608332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00743824 2.37942910 7 608341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00693492 2.31497478 8 608342 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00371520 2.58127069 9 608351 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01452484 1.35562766 10 608352 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00714860 1.67085171 11 608361 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01244513 2.07122278 12 608362 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00704557 2.59178257 13 608371 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00087760 2.54831100 14 608372 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00093231 2.49091244 15 608381 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00316610 1.67288518 16 608382 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00140744 1.62477446 17 608391 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00480473 2.87916613 18 608392 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042734 2.91798520 19 608401 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002259 2.52210999 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 608402 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00732592 2.59522939 21 608411 1 3.04427147 0.34072530 0.00000000 2.66810179 22 608412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00194293 2.73538518 23 608421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01289114 2.96776223 24 608422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01033314 2.75759292 25 608431 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00126404 2.38806391 26 608432 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00118227 2.47000384 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608311 1901 1979 79 0.999 0.281 -0.113 2.374 0.232 0.385 2 608312 1897 1979 83 1.000 0.257 -0.101 2.490 0.234 0.353 3 608321 1889 1979 91 0.994 0.337 0.263 3.139 0.252 0.563 4 608322 1885 1979 95 0.989 0.370 0.338 2.419 0.305 0.463 5 608331 1873 1979 107 0.999 0.291 0.357 2.534 0.299 0.210 6 608332 1871 1979 109 1.000 0.362 0.708 3.581 0.289 0.517 7 608341 1895 1979 85 1.000 0.271 -0.236 3.406 0.280 0.277 8 608342 1896 1979 84 1.000 0.293 0.995 4.520 0.238 0.408 9 608351 1902 1979 78 0.998 0.347 0.492 4.189 0.329 0.242 10 608352 1874 1979 106 0.999 0.304 0.063 3.358 0.270 0.358 11 608361 1842 1979 138 0.997 0.243 -0.121 2.706 0.239 0.296 12 608362 1842 1979 138 0.999 0.259 0.172 2.560 0.241 0.359 13 608371 1855 1979 125 1.000 0.259 -0.225 2.895 0.244 0.302 14 608372 1850 1979 130 1.000 0.273 -0.108 3.087 0.279 0.221 15 608381 1879 1979 101 1.000 0.304 1.317 6.507 0.259 0.327 16 608382 1877 1979 103 1.000 0.258 0.710 4.076 0.258 0.099 17 608391 1877 1979 103 1.000 0.300 1.036 4.762 0.268 0.137 18 608392 1869 1979 111 1.000 0.348 0.830 4.589 0.346 0.181 19 608401 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.302 0.174 2.514 0.286 0.259 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608402 1870 1979 110 0.999 0.320 0.264 4.125 0.326 0.213 21 608411 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.210 0.067 3.541 0.213 0.187 22 608412 1873 1979 107 1.000 0.275 0.596 4.829 0.251 0.198 23 608421 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.365 1.142 4.288 0.365 -0.071 24 608422 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.308 0.728 4.215 0.316 0.024 25 608431 1841 1979 139 1.000 0.340 0.156 2.807 0.260 0.562 26 608432 1853 1979 127 1.000 0.223 0.026 3.131 0.234 0.167 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 0.999 0.296 0.367 3.563 0.274 0.278 STANDARD DEVIATION 20 0.002 0.044 0.450 1.001 0.039 0.154 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 1.000 0.297 0.264 3.382 0.264 0.268 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.001 0.078 0.684 1.509 0.059 0.171 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.989 0.210 -0.236 2.374 0.213 -0.071 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 85 0.999 0.259 0.026 2.706 0.241 0.187 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 111 1.000 0.337 0.710 4.215 0.299 0.359 MAXIMUM VALUE 139 1.000 0.370 1.317 6.507 0.365 0.563 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 608311 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 608312 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 608321 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 608322 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 608331 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 608332 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 608341 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 608342 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 608351 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 608352 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 608361 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 608362 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 608371 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 608372 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 608381 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 608382 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 608391 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 608392 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 608401 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 608402 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 608411 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 608412 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 608421 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 608422 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 608431 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 608432 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608311 1901 1979 79 0.995 0.260 0.326 2.903 0.232 0.225 2 608312 1897 1979 83 0.998 0.235 -0.011 2.450 0.234 0.204 3 608321 1889 1979 91 0.995 0.280 0.625 4.038 0.253 0.269 4 608322 1885 1979 95 0.993 0.317 1.152 5.075 0.306 0.129 5 608331 1873 1979 107 0.999 0.286 0.400 2.643 0.299 0.175 6 608332 1871 1979 109 0.997 0.356 0.951 4.213 0.289 0.502 7 608341 1895 1979 85 0.998 0.247 -0.459 3.331 0.279 0.101 8 608342 1896 1979 84 0.997 0.236 0.526 3.650 0.239 0.075 9 608351 1902 1979 78 0.996 0.316 0.158 3.811 0.329 0.103 10 608352 1874 1979 106 0.996 0.277 -0.059 3.816 0.270 0.255 11 608361 1842 1979 138 0.998 0.213 0.112 3.554 0.239 0.009 12 608362 1842 1979 138 0.998 0.217 0.360 3.011 0.241 0.038 13 608371 1855 1979 125 0.999 0.232 0.461 3.912 0.244 0.005 14 608372 1850 1979 130 0.998 0.259 0.127 3.508 0.279 0.073 15 608381 1879 1979 101 0.999 0.285 1.100 5.229 0.259 0.236 16 608382 1877 1979 103 0.998 0.248 0.755 4.017 0.258 0.025 17 608391 1877 1979 103 0.997 0.289 1.116 5.308 0.268 0.078 18 608392 1869 1979 111 0.996 0.324 0.997 5.010 0.346 0.035 19 608401 1870 1979 110 0.999 0.279 0.598 4.189 0.287 0.047 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608402 1870 1979 110 0.999 0.318 0.806 5.585 0.327 0.138 21 608411 1870 1979 110 0.999 0.193 -0.211 3.607 0.213 0.077 22 608412 1873 1979 107 0.997 0.267 1.947 12.092 0.250 -0.009 23 608421 1914 1979 66 0.998 0.361 1.306 5.065 0.364 -0.112 24 608422 1905 1979 75 0.999 0.307 0.830 4.562 0.316 0.003 25 608431 1841 1979 139 0.991 0.271 1.040 6.379 0.260 0.155 26 608432 1853 1979 127 0.997 0.208 0.105 3.150 0.233 0.041 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 0.997 0.272 0.579 4.389 0.274 0.111 STANDARD DEVIATION 20 0.002 0.044 0.544 1.844 0.039 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 0.998 0.274 0.562 3.965 0.264 0.078 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.003 0.071 0.870 1.557 0.058 0.140 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.991 0.193 -0.459 2.450 0.213 -0.112 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 85 0.996 0.236 0.127 3.508 0.241 0.035 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 111 0.999 0.307 0.997 5.065 0.299 0.175 MAXIMUM VALUE 139 0.999 0.361 1.947 12.092 0.364 0.502 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.237 0.146 0.008 0.359 3.440 -0.172 0.747 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.172 SERIES 608322 AND 608382 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.747 SERIES 608421 AND 608422 66 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 66.51 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 91. 231. 325. RBAR 0.117 0.225 0.324 SDEV 0.191 0.179 0.152 SERR 0.020 0.012 0.008 EPS 0.742 0.881 0.926 NSS 21.7 25.6 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1979 139 0.995 0.185 0.666 4.594 0.203 -0.137 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.138 0.064 0.151 46 93 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.91 1.00 1.06 1.97 177.30 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.136 -0.027 -0.047 0.165 -0.098 -0.005 -0.013 -0.031 -0.143 -0.036 PACF -0.136 -0.046 -0.058 0.153 -0.061 -0.017 -0.010 -0.069 -0.140 -0.085 95% C.L. 0.170 0.173 0.173 0.173 0.178 0.179 0.179 0.179 0.179 0.183 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.023 -0.144 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.173 -0.124 0.009 0.222 -0.042 -0.106 0.084 0.026 -0.230 -0.015 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.173 2 -0.200 -0.159 3 -0.208 -0.168 -0.046 4 -0.198 -0.133 -0.003 0.207 5 -0.207 -0.133 0.003 0.216 0.043 6 -0.205 -0.121 0.003 0.208 0.031 -0.057 7 -0.201 -0.122 -0.008 0.208 0.037 -0.046 0.054 8 -0.201 -0.123 -0.007 0.211 0.037 -0.048 0.051 -0.015 9 -0.204 -0.111 -0.019 0.220 0.087 -0.050 0.022 -0.062 -0.235 10 -0.223 -0.116 -0.017 0.216 0.094 -0.032 0.021 -0.071 -0.251 -0.081 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 980.98 978.76 977.21 978.93 974.83 976.58 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 978.12 979.72 981.69 975.81 976.90 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.200 -0.159 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.43 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.74 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.200 -0.118 0.056 0.008 -0.010 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 608311 2 0.091 0.194 0.155 2 608312 2 0.043 0.212 -0.025 3 608321 2 0.111 0.268 0.067 4 608322 2 0.021 0.140 0.009 5 608331 2 0.031 0.176 0.004 6 608332 2 0.286 0.440 0.124 7 608341 2 0.034 0.101 0.023 8 608342 2 0.051 0.093 -0.213 9 608351 2 0.013 0.106 0.005 10 608352 2 0.095 0.247 0.058 11 608361 2 0.003 0.010 -0.007 12 608362 2 0.003 0.038 0.009 13 608371 2 0.030 0.006 -0.164 14 608372 2 0.020 0.068 0.096 15 608381 2 0.061 0.237 0.001 16 608382 2 0.003 0.024 0.047 17 608391 2 0.029 0.075 0.052 18 608392 2 0.052 0.029 0.178 19 608401 2 0.003 0.052 -0.025 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 608402 2 0.021 0.142 0.007 21 608411 2 0.015 0.078 -0.009 22 608412 2 0.013 -0.008 0.095 23 608421 2 0.075 -0.097 0.147 24 608422 2 0.000 0.003 0.007 25 608431 2 0.058 0.146 0.112 26 608432 2 0.044 0.033 0.197 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.046 0.108 0.037 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.058 0.112 0.093 MEDIAN 2 0.031 0.086 0.016 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.045 0.147 0.095 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.000 -0.097 -0.213 LOWER HINGE 2 0.013 0.029 0.001 UPPER HINGE 2 0.058 0.176 0.096 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.286 0.440 0.197 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608311 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.250 0.335 3.284 0.256 -0.019 2 608312 1897 1979 83 1.000 0.229 -0.138 2.513 0.261 -0.003 3 608321 1889 1979 91 1.000 0.266 0.558 3.546 0.293 -0.026 4 608322 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.313 1.109 5.126 0.325 -0.011 5 608331 1873 1979 107 1.000 0.282 0.281 2.482 0.327 0.001 6 608332 1871 1979 109 1.000 0.305 0.621 4.571 0.361 0.020 7 608341 1895 1979 85 1.000 0.246 -0.375 3.038 0.291 0.004 8 608342 1896 1979 84 1.000 0.230 0.432 3.853 0.247 0.001 9 608351 1902 1979 78 1.000 0.314 0.154 4.032 0.339 -0.002 10 608352 1874 1979 106 1.000 0.266 -0.008 3.744 0.288 0.002 11 608361 1842 1979 138 1.000 0.213 0.113 3.571 0.239 0.000 12 608362 1842 1979 138 1.000 0.217 0.385 3.026 0.244 -0.001 13 608371 1855 1979 125 1.000 0.229 0.336 3.550 0.245 -0.016 14 608372 1850 1979 130 1.000 0.257 0.170 3.579 0.286 0.005 15 608381 1879 1979 101 1.000 0.277 1.078 4.871 0.289 -0.002 16 608382 1877 1979 103 1.000 0.247 0.732 3.888 0.262 -0.001 17 608391 1877 1979 103 1.000 0.287 1.167 5.525 0.279 -0.008 18 608392 1869 1979 111 1.000 0.319 0.944 4.835 0.342 0.025 19 608401 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.279 0.604 4.251 0.292 -0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608402 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.315 0.773 5.133 0.347 -0.003 21 608411 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.193 -0.217 3.668 0.222 0.000 22 608412 1873 1979 107 1.000 0.266 1.916 12.241 0.252 -0.004 23 608421 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.355 1.282 5.117 0.348 -0.030 24 608422 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.307 0.841 4.605 0.316 0.000 25 608431 1841 1979 139 1.000 0.266 1.063 6.619 0.277 -0.024 26 608432 1853 1979 127 1.000 0.204 0.116 3.156 0.228 0.008 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 1.000 0.267 0.549 4.378 0.287 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 20 0.000 0.041 0.532 1.876 0.041 0.012 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 1.000 0.266 0.495 3.871 0.287 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.000 0.075 0.790 1.325 0.073 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.193 -0.375 2.482 0.222 -0.030 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 85 1.000 0.230 0.154 3.546 0.252 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 111 1.000 0.305 0.944 4.871 0.325 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 139 1.000 0.355 1.916 12.241 0.361 0.025 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.254 0.135 0.007 0.337 3.633 -0.168 0.736 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.168 SERIES 608322 AND 608382 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.736 SERIES 608421 AND 608422 66 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 66.51 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 91. 231. 325. RBAR 0.120 0.242 0.345 SDEV 0.179 0.178 0.143 SERR 0.019 0.012 0.008 EPS 0.747 0.891 0.932 NSS 21.7 25.6 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1979 139 1.000 0.186 0.677 4.568 0.210 -0.197 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.126 0.054 0.156 39 100 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.94 1.01 1.11 2.05 18.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.196 -0.020 -0.072 0.166 -0.104 -0.004 -0.015 0.005 -0.124 -0.015 PACF -0.196 -0.060 -0.092 0.138 -0.053 -0.026 -0.009 -0.035 -0.119 -0.070 95% C.L. 0.170 0.176 0.176 0.177 0.181 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.186 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.046 -0.207 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 -0.013 -0.058 0.136 -0.081 -0.023 -0.028 -0.029 -0.148 -0.040 PACF 0.003 -0.013 -0.058 0.136 -0.086 -0.021 -0.013 -0.059 -0.131 -0.043 95% C.L. 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.173 0.174 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.178 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.004 0.003 -0.014 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1979 139 1.000 0.187 0.688 4.699 0.205 -0.154 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.153 -0.147 -0.023 0.174 -0.100 -0.027 0.012 0.006 -0.126 -0.020 PACF -0.153 -0.174 -0.081 0.137 -0.064 -0.009 -0.006 -0.031 -0.117 -0.072 95% C.L. 0.170 0.174 0.177 0.177 0.182 0.184 0.184 0.184 0.184 0.186 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.064 -0.191 -0.182 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.45 MINUTES