RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT163L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT163L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 608 1 Toppwald BE, Fi.Vergl.Pr WIDTH_LATE PCAB - 608 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 875 4652-741 1841 1979 - 608 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608311 1901 1979 79 0.475 0.143 0.975 3.923 0.267 0.235 2 608312 1897 1979 83 0.428 0.110 0.922 4.038 0.231 0.281 3 608321 1889 1979 91 0.527 0.245 1.198 4.073 0.307 0.572 4 608322 1885 1979 95 0.408 0.171 1.787 8.139 0.333 0.412 5 608331 1873 1979 107 0.373 0.154 1.633 7.657 0.265 0.552 6 608332 1871 1979 109 0.400 0.204 2.548 10.704 0.292 0.529 7 608341 1895 1979 85 0.583 0.205 0.442 3.041 0.286 0.382 8 608342 1896 1979 84 0.517 0.205 0.178 3.492 0.272 0.567 9 608351 1902 1979 78 0.441 0.243 2.009 8.226 0.400 0.524 10 608352 1874 1979 106 0.464 0.189 0.917 4.158 0.303 0.456 11 608361 1842 1979 138 0.386 0.141 0.263 2.302 0.288 0.562 12 608362 1842 1979 138 0.450 0.229 2.364 11.872 0.306 0.710 13 608371 1855 1979 125 0.390 0.150 0.852 3.959 0.274 0.532 14 608372 1850 1979 130 0.375 0.179 2.569 13.616 0.276 0.509 15 608381 1879 1979 101 0.475 0.281 1.955 9.111 0.304 0.762 16 608382 1877 1979 103 0.423 0.192 0.781 4.049 0.297 0.643 17 608391 1877 1979 103 0.404 0.173 1.521 7.863 0.276 0.588 18 608392 1869 1979 111 0.431 0.181 1.712 9.155 0.365 0.343 19 608401 1870 1979 110 0.358 0.125 0.932 4.630 0.301 0.361 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608402 1870 1979 110 0.447 0.197 1.615 7.243 0.358 0.470 21 608411 1870 1979 110 0.400 0.119 0.191 2.612 0.232 0.444 22 608412 1873 1979 107 0.393 0.133 2.105 13.059 0.266 0.167 23 608421 1914 1979 66 0.445 0.148 2.726 14.306 0.306 -0.092 24 608422 1905 1979 75 0.352 0.111 0.815 3.639 0.275 0.262 25 608431 1841 1979 139 0.389 0.291 3.928 23.172 0.313 0.687 26 608432 1853 1979 127 0.320 0.143 0.503 2.814 0.298 0.666 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1841 TO 1979 139 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 0.425 0.179 1.440 7.341 0.296 0.466 STANDARD DEVIATION 20 0.058 0.049 0.920 4.897 0.037 0.190 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 0.415 0.176 1.359 5.936 0.294 0.516 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.062 0.062 1.194 5.232 0.033 0.212 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.320 0.110 0.178 2.302 0.231 -0.092 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 85 0.389 0.143 0.815 3.923 0.274 0.361 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 111 0.450 0.205 2.009 9.155 0.306 0.572 MAXIMUM VALUE 139 0.583 0.291 3.928 23.172 0.400 0.762 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.112 0.207 0.011 -0.005 2.437 -0.372 0.645 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.372 SERIES 608352 AND 608431 106 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.645 SERIES 608371 AND 608372 125 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 66.51 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 91. 231. 325. RBAR 0.070 0.158 0.164 SDEV 0.262 0.235 0.215 SERR 0.027 0.015 0.012 EPS 0.621 0.828 0.836 NSS 21.7 25.6 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1979 139 0.387 0.080 0.722 6.176 0.186 0.210 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.494 0.347 0.004 62 77 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.47 1.76 1.00 1.08 2.84 237.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 106. 26. 66. 85. 111. 139. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.209 0.203 0.142 0.321 0.140 0.116 0.190 0.203 0.045 0.116 PACF 0.209 0.167 0.077 0.272 0.019 -0.002 0.125 0.067 -0.085 0.056 95% C.L. 0.170 0.177 0.183 0.187 0.202 0.205 0.207 0.212 0.217 0.217 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.082 0.192 0.165 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 608311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00309567 0.35136318 2 608312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047332 0.40831324 3 608321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00257860 0.40841758 4 608322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00170717 0.32563493 5 608331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00083848 0.32761946 6 608332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00181151 0.30055046 7 608341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00042212 0.56490755 8 608342 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010084 0.51309526 9 608351 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00386879 0.59384280 10 608352 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00219256 0.34637737 11 608361 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004843 0.38293874 12 608362 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00033028 0.47324449 13 608371 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00284485 0.21053420 14 608372 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00234861 0.22162791 15 608381 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00443856 0.70151484 16 608382 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00391831 0.62647057 17 608391 1 0.42950559 0.02981226 0.00000000 0.27305928 18 608392 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031195 0.41316134 19 608401 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00069937 0.39636031 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 608402 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00084521 0.49418181 21 608411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00136690 0.32450041 22 608412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00096309 0.34098396 23 608421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00064419 0.42326808 24 608422 1 0.25916910 0.13223188 0.00000000 0.32742500 25 608431 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00225823 0.54670942 26 608432 1 0.18661134 0.03434366 0.00000000 0.27887720 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608311 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.254 0.592 2.570 0.263 0.054 2 608312 1897 1979 83 1.000 0.256 0.986 4.245 0.228 0.253 3 608321 1889 1979 91 0.998 0.445 1.263 4.141 0.304 0.546 4 608322 1885 1979 95 0.998 0.385 1.417 6.495 0.329 0.342 5 608331 1873 1979 107 1.000 0.394 1.308 6.500 0.262 0.526 6 608332 1871 1979 109 1.000 0.450 1.924 7.802 0.289 0.449 7 608341 1895 1979 85 1.000 0.351 0.405 2.938 0.283 0.377 8 608342 1896 1979 84 1.000 0.397 0.170 3.474 0.269 0.560 9 608351 1902 1979 78 0.999 0.477 1.404 5.671 0.396 0.442 10 608352 1874 1979 106 0.997 0.363 0.623 3.899 0.301 0.356 11 608361 1842 1979 138 1.000 0.364 0.263 2.313 0.286 0.559 12 608362 1842 1979 138 1.000 0.506 2.293 11.390 0.304 0.701 13 608371 1855 1979 125 1.001 0.273 0.734 4.627 0.271 0.165 14 608372 1850 1979 130 1.005 0.388 1.860 9.202 0.274 0.353 15 608381 1879 1979 101 0.987 0.480 1.980 9.813 0.301 0.665 16 608382 1877 1979 103 0.991 0.341 0.743 4.249 0.293 0.385 17 608391 1877 1979 103 1.000 0.337 1.286 6.190 0.273 0.370 18 608392 1869 1979 111 1.000 0.423 1.842 9.869 0.361 0.345 19 608401 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.341 0.892 4.632 0.298 0.331 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608402 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.427 1.334 5.834 0.355 0.450 21 608411 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.286 0.552 3.391 0.229 0.395 22 608412 1873 1979 107 1.000 0.343 3.273 23.297 0.263 0.097 23 608421 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.325 2.409 12.619 0.301 -0.085 24 608422 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.294 1.179 5.166 0.270 0.093 25 608431 1841 1979 139 1.011 0.651 2.652 12.587 0.311 0.661 26 608432 1853 1979 127 0.999 0.418 0.214 2.141 0.296 0.616 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 0.999 0.383 1.292 6.733 0.293 0.385 STANDARD DEVIATION 20 0.004 0.088 0.805 4.589 0.037 0.200 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 1.000 0.375 1.275 5.418 0.291 0.381 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.001 0.091 1.237 5.302 0.034 0.215 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.987 0.254 0.170 2.141 0.228 -0.085 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 85 0.999 0.337 0.623 3.899 0.270 0.331 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 111 1.000 0.427 1.860 9.202 0.304 0.546 MAXIMUM VALUE 139 1.011 0.651 3.273 23.297 0.396 0.701 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 608311 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 608312 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 608321 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 608322 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 608331 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 608332 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 608341 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 608342 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 608351 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 608352 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 608361 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 608362 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 608371 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 608372 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 608381 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 608382 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 608391 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 608392 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 608401 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 608402 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 608411 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 608412 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 608421 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 608422 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 608431 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 608432 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608311 1901 1979 79 0.998 0.243 0.586 2.699 0.263 -0.037 2 608312 1897 1979 83 0.999 0.246 1.041 4.473 0.228 0.191 3 608321 1889 1979 91 0.993 0.405 1.301 4.265 0.305 0.407 4 608322 1885 1979 95 0.994 0.334 1.264 5.891 0.329 0.156 5 608331 1873 1979 107 0.990 0.335 0.994 5.186 0.263 0.422 6 608332 1871 1979 109 0.988 0.399 1.740 6.789 0.288 0.375 7 608341 1895 1979 85 0.993 0.315 0.540 3.344 0.282 0.291 8 608342 1896 1979 84 0.990 0.372 0.715 5.089 0.268 0.513 9 608351 1902 1979 78 0.995 0.460 1.294 5.308 0.395 0.416 10 608352 1874 1979 106 0.995 0.309 0.356 3.483 0.301 0.179 11 608361 1842 1979 138 0.993 0.317 0.269 2.837 0.285 0.390 12 608362 1842 1979 138 0.984 0.356 1.597 8.216 0.304 0.473 13 608371 1855 1979 125 0.999 0.266 0.637 3.893 0.272 0.130 14 608372 1850 1979 130 0.995 0.349 1.545 7.892 0.274 0.309 15 608381 1879 1979 101 0.994 0.395 1.142 5.531 0.300 0.508 16 608382 1877 1979 103 0.996 0.295 0.609 4.146 0.293 0.163 17 608391 1877 1979 103 0.997 0.320 1.170 5.592 0.273 0.317 18 608392 1869 1979 111 0.993 0.390 1.798 8.976 0.361 0.268 19 608401 1870 1979 110 0.996 0.314 0.849 5.012 0.298 0.195 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608402 1870 1979 110 0.999 0.420 1.390 6.366 0.355 0.425 21 608411 1870 1979 110 0.996 0.260 0.233 2.758 0.229 0.316 22 608412 1873 1979 107 0.999 0.340 3.273 23.310 0.263 0.085 23 608421 1914 1979 66 0.999 0.284 1.996 11.089 0.302 -0.267 24 608422 1905 1979 75 0.997 0.267 0.836 4.376 0.270 0.003 25 608431 1841 1979 139 0.985 0.493 2.705 15.712 0.311 0.531 26 608432 1853 1979 127 0.986 0.353 0.326 2.567 0.296 0.453 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 0.994 0.340 1.162 6.339 0.293 0.277 STANDARD DEVIATION 20 0.004 0.064 0.734 4.520 0.037 0.193 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 0.995 0.335 1.091 5.137 0.291 0.312 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.005 0.095 0.935 2.896 0.034 0.259 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.984 0.243 0.233 2.567 0.228 -0.267 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 85 0.993 0.295 0.609 3.893 0.270 0.163 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 111 0.997 0.390 1.545 6.789 0.304 0.422 MAXIMUM VALUE 139 0.999 0.493 3.273 23.310 0.395 0.531 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.150 0.152 0.008 0.185 2.413 -0.177 0.517 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.177 SERIES 608311 AND 608372 79 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.517 SERIES 608401 AND 608402 110 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 66.51 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 91. 231. 325. RBAR 0.077 0.177 0.189 SDEV 0.199 0.213 0.191 SERR 0.021 0.014 0.011 EPS 0.644 0.846 0.858 NSS 21.7 25.6 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1979 139 0.963 0.158 0.128 2.723 0.188 -0.026 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.305 0.211 0.068 53 86 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.50 1.35 1.01 1.11 2.47 2241.93 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.026 -0.044 -0.044 0.197 -0.091 -0.113 0.067 0.064 -0.166 -0.036 PACF -0.026 -0.044 -0.046 0.193 -0.089 -0.106 0.080 0.014 -0.148 0.007 95% C.L. 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.177 0.178 0.180 0.181 0.182 0.186 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.066 -0.088 0.003 0.191 -0.081 -0.141 0.140 0.090 -0.182 0.045 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.066 2 -0.072 -0.092 3 -0.073 -0.093 -0.010 4 -0.071 -0.076 0.004 0.184 5 -0.061 -0.076 -0.001 0.180 -0.057 6 -0.068 -0.053 -0.001 0.171 -0.065 -0.125 7 -0.053 -0.045 -0.021 0.171 -0.058 -0.117 0.119 8 -0.060 -0.038 -0.018 0.161 -0.057 -0.115 0.122 0.059 9 -0.051 -0.020 -0.034 0.152 -0.033 -0.117 0.117 0.051 -0.147 10 -0.038 -0.025 -0.045 0.163 -0.031 -0.130 0.120 0.052 -0.143 0.086 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 993.29 994.68 995.49 997.48 994.67 996.21 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 996.01 996.02 997.53 996.48 997.44 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 608311 0 0.002 2 608312 0 0.042 3 608321 0 0.190 4 608322 0 0.025 5 608331 0 0.180 6 608332 0 0.142 7 608341 0 0.085 8 608342 0 0.265 9 608351 0 0.181 10 608352 0 0.034 11 608361 0 0.156 12 608362 0 0.227 13 608371 0 0.017 14 608372 0 0.102 15 608381 0 0.277 16 608382 0 0.030 17 608391 0 0.101 18 608392 0 0.072 19 608401 0 0.041 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 608402 0 0.182 21 608411 0 0.105 22 608412 0 0.007 23 608421 0 0.071 24 608422 0 0.000 25 608431 0 0.289 26 608432 0 0.206 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.117 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.091 MEDIAN 0 0.101 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.034 UPPER HINGE 0 0.182 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.289 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 608311 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.243 0.586 2.699 0.263 -0.037 2 608312 1897 1979 83 1.000 0.246 1.041 4.473 0.228 0.191 3 608321 1889 1979 91 1.000 0.405 1.301 4.265 0.302 0.407 4 608322 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.334 1.264 5.891 0.327 0.156 5 608331 1873 1979 107 1.000 0.335 0.994 5.186 0.260 0.422 6 608332 1871 1979 109 1.000 0.399 1.740 6.789 0.284 0.375 7 608341 1895 1979 85 1.000 0.315 0.540 3.344 0.279 0.291 8 608342 1896 1979 84 1.000 0.372 0.715 5.089 0.265 0.513 9 608351 1902 1979 78 1.000 0.460 1.294 5.308 0.393 0.416 10 608352 1874 1979 106 1.000 0.309 0.356 3.483 0.299 0.179 11 608361 1842 1979 138 1.000 0.317 0.269 2.837 0.283 0.390 12 608362 1842 1979 138 1.000 0.356 1.597 8.216 0.299 0.473 13 608371 1855 1979 125 1.000 0.266 0.637 3.893 0.271 0.130 14 608372 1850 1979 130 1.000 0.349 1.545 7.892 0.272 0.309 15 608381 1879 1979 101 1.000 0.395 1.142 5.531 0.298 0.508 16 608382 1877 1979 103 1.000 0.295 0.609 4.146 0.292 0.163 17 608391 1877 1979 103 1.000 0.320 1.170 5.592 0.273 0.317 18 608392 1869 1979 111 1.000 0.390 1.798 8.976 0.359 0.268 19 608401 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.314 0.849 5.012 0.297 0.195 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 608402 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.420 1.390 6.366 0.354 0.425 21 608411 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.260 0.233 2.758 0.228 0.316 22 608412 1873 1979 107 1.000 0.340 3.273 23.310 0.263 0.085 23 608421 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.284 1.996 11.089 0.301 -0.267 24 608422 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.267 0.836 4.376 0.270 0.003 25 608431 1841 1979 139 1.000 0.493 2.705 15.712 0.306 0.531 26 608432 1853 1979 127 1.000 0.353 0.326 2.567 0.291 0.453 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 1.000 0.340 1.162 6.339 0.291 0.277 STANDARD DEVIATION 20 0.000 0.064 0.734 4.520 0.037 0.193 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 1.000 0.335 1.091 5.137 0.288 0.312 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.000 0.095 0.935 2.896 0.031 0.259 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.243 0.233 2.567 0.228 -0.267 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 85 1.000 0.295 0.609 3.893 0.270 0.163 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 111 1.000 0.390 1.545 6.789 0.301 0.422 MAXIMUM VALUE 139 1.000 0.493 3.273 23.310 0.393 0.531 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.150 0.152 0.008 0.185 2.413 -0.177 0.517 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.177 SERIES 608311 AND 608372 79 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.517 SERIES 608401 AND 608402 110 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 66.51 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 91. 231. 325. RBAR 0.077 0.177 0.189 SDEV 0.199 0.213 0.191 SERR 0.021 0.014 0.011 EPS 0.644 0.846 0.858 NSS 21.7 25.6 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1979 139 0.970 0.158 0.130 2.737 0.187 -0.026 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.303 0.211 0.065 52 87 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.51 1.27 1.01 1.14 2.41 3156.80 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.026 -0.043 -0.045 0.195 -0.095 -0.114 0.063 0.059 -0.170 -0.035 PACF -0.026 -0.044 -0.048 0.192 -0.093 -0.108 0.076 0.008 -0.152 0.006 95% C.L. 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.177 0.178 0.180 0.181 0.181 0.186 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1979 139 0.970 0.158 0.130 2.737 0.187 -0.026 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.026 -0.043 -0.045 0.195 -0.095 -0.114 0.063 0.059 -0.170 -0.035 PACF -0.026 -0.044 -0.048 0.192 -0.093 -0.108 0.076 0.008 -0.152 0.006 95% C.L. 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.177 0.178 0.180 0.181 0.181 0.186 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES