RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT159P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT159P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 577 1 Torrent des Croix VS LATEWOOD_PERCENT PISY - 577 2 Switzerland Scots pine, Scotch pine 1540 4607-711 1883 1979 - 577 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 577031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1913 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 577042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1904 1904 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 577092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 577011 1835 1979 145 2.248 0.474 0.207 2.919 0.214 0.200 2 577012 1840 1979 140 2.471 0.599 -0.042 2.982 0.207 0.378 3 577021 1840 1979 140 2.348 0.701 0.511 2.970 0.245 0.461 4 577022 1835 1979 145 2.791 0.643 -0.039 2.818 0.219 0.358 5 577031 1840 1979 140 2.635 0.926 0.650 4.032 0.264 0.504 6 577032 1842 1979 138 2.418 0.727 0.650 4.313 0.282 0.298 7 577041 1846 1979 134 2.195 0.559 0.471 3.434 0.270 0.075 8 577042 1833 1979 147 2.134 0.634 0.597 3.885 0.281 0.260 9 577051 1842 1979 138 2.061 0.672 0.430 3.051 0.286 0.366 10 577052 1842 1979 138 2.260 0.753 0.833 4.792 0.272 0.358 11 577061 1855 1979 125 2.466 0.517 0.294 2.770 0.215 0.124 12 577062 1844 1979 136 2.548 0.541 0.120 2.842 0.230 0.134 13 577071 1844 1979 136 2.396 0.617 0.984 4.955 0.226 0.289 14 577072 1842 1979 138 2.637 0.777 0.874 4.536 0.255 0.344 15 577091 1840 1979 140 2.164 0.624 0.590 4.121 0.252 0.300 16 577092 1847 1979 133 2.610 0.879 1.648 6.064 0.235 0.480 17 577111 1854 1971 118 2.384 0.655 0.751 3.793 0.261 0.267 18 577112 1847 1979 133 2.436 0.602 0.937 3.998 0.221 0.319 19 577121 1850 1979 130 2.113 0.555 0.883 4.851 0.242 0.123 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 577122 1853 1979 127 2.119 0.500 0.620 3.418 0.216 0.338 21 577131 1847 1979 133 2.676 0.770 0.365 2.418 0.241 0.490 22 577132 1845 1979 135 2.453 0.755 1.553 9.729 0.256 0.208 23 577141 1849 1979 131 2.337 0.620 0.199 3.223 0.235 0.407 24 577142 1847 1979 133 2.120 0.608 0.454 3.423 0.257 0.337 25 577151 1846 1979 134 2.108 0.486 0.132 2.318 0.242 0.243 26 577152 1844 1979 136 2.313 0.477 -0.023 3.042 0.225 0.126 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1833 TO 1979 147 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 135 2.363 0.641 0.563 3.873 0.244 0.300 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.205 0.119 0.432 1.492 0.023 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 2.366 0.622 0.550 3.428 0.242 0.309 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.307 0.172 0.626 1.344 0.036 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 118 2.061 0.474 -0.042 2.318 0.207 0.075 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 133 2.164 0.555 0.207 2.970 0.225 0.208 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 139 2.471 0.727 0.833 4.313 0.261 0.366 MAXIMUM VALUE 146 2.791 0.926 1.648 9.729 0.286 0.504 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.327 0.152 0.008 -0.054 2.680 -0.071 0.739 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.071 SERIES 577042 AND 577131 133 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.739 SERIES 577121 AND 577122 127 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 89.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.356 0.354 0.271 SDEV 0.154 0.162 0.176 SERR 0.009 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.935 0.934 0.906 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1833 1979 147 2.274 0.441 -0.318 3.474 0.167 0.387 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.437 0.169 0.144 47 100 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.43 1.00 1.10 1.53 3.61 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 136. 7. 118. 133. 140. 147. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.385 0.478 0.434 0.405 0.347 0.398 0.346 0.352 0.343 0.261 PACF 0.385 0.387 0.238 0.135 0.031 0.122 0.063 0.058 0.051 -0.073 95% C.L. 0.165 0.188 0.218 0.241 0.259 0.271 0.286 0.298 0.309 0.319 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.366 0.090 0.282 0.233 0.175 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 577011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00175862 2.11996555 2 577012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00676451 1.99410176 3 577021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00969242 1.66511309 4 577022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00161801 2.67257476 5 577031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01412941 1.63467479 6 577032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00727445 1.91232407 7 577041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00086487 2.13632250 8 577042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00248031 1.95076168 9 577051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00632826 1.62156248 10 577052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01099146 1.49652815 11 577061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00482046 2.77000904 12 577062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00175166 2.42787910 13 577071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00486344 2.06325173 14 577072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00972102 1.96163547 15 577091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00110293 2.24175644 16 577092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01029918 1.93667686 17 577111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00870400 1.86617994 18 577112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00573668 2.05173278 19 577121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00197266 1.98371375 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 577122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00286306 1.93558300 21 577131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01336188 1.78099453 22 577132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00977344 1.78807294 23 577141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00052570 2.37210107 24 577142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00845523 1.55349970 25 577151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00105737 2.17928290 26 577152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00287882 2.50984645 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 577011 1835 1979 145 1.000 0.208 0.205 2.787 0.212 0.193 2 577012 1840 1979 140 0.999 0.218 0.072 3.304 0.205 0.262 3 577021 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.248 0.586 3.411 0.243 0.181 4 577022 1835 1979 145 1.000 0.228 -0.123 2.791 0.217 0.351 5 577031 1840 1979 140 0.997 0.280 0.917 4.625 0.259 0.146 6 577032 1842 1979 138 0.999 0.280 0.686 4.016 0.280 0.170 7 577041 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.254 0.475 3.402 0.268 0.073 8 577042 1833 1979 147 1.000 0.293 0.626 3.764 0.277 0.235 9 577051 1842 1979 138 0.998 0.303 0.467 2.824 0.284 0.287 10 577052 1842 1979 138 0.999 0.266 0.562 3.842 0.270 0.083 11 577061 1855 1979 125 1.000 0.198 0.355 2.681 0.213 0.005 12 577062 1844 1979 136 1.000 0.210 0.093 2.805 0.228 0.114 13 577071 1844 1979 136 0.999 0.244 1.067 5.133 0.224 0.205 14 577072 1842 1979 138 0.999 0.246 0.520 3.844 0.253 0.156 15 577091 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.288 0.614 4.231 0.251 0.294 16 577092 1847 1979 133 1.002 0.293 1.064 4.183 0.234 0.379 17 577111 1854 1971 118 1.000 0.255 1.555 7.722 0.259 0.127 18 577112 1847 1979 133 1.000 0.228 0.988 4.176 0.220 0.183 19 577121 1850 1979 130 1.000 0.258 0.756 4.245 0.240 0.124 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 577122 1853 1979 127 1.000 0.231 0.650 3.541 0.214 0.316 21 577131 1847 1979 133 1.001 0.214 0.005 2.366 0.239 0.074 22 577132 1845 1979 135 0.999 0.258 1.204 6.693 0.255 0.022 23 577141 1849 1979 131 1.000 0.265 0.194 3.238 0.233 0.400 24 577142 1847 1979 133 1.000 0.242 0.350 3.708 0.255 0.120 25 577151 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.230 0.149 2.352 0.240 0.235 26 577152 1844 1979 136 1.000 0.202 0.033 3.061 0.223 0.066 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 136 1.000 0.248 0.541 3.798 0.242 0.185 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.001 0.030 0.416 1.230 0.023 0.108 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 1.000 0.247 0.541 3.624 0.240 0.176 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.001 0.038 0.562 1.359 0.035 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.997 0.198 -0.123 2.352 0.205 0.005 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 133 0.999 0.228 0.194 2.824 0.223 0.114 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 140 1.000 0.266 0.756 4.183 0.259 0.262 MAXIMUM VALUE 147 1.002 0.303 1.555 7.722 0.284 0.400 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 577011 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 577012 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 577021 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 577022 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 577031 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 577032 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 577041 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 577042 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 577051 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 577052 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 577061 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 577062 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 577071 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 577072 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 577091 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 577092 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 577111 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 577112 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 577121 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 577122 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 577131 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 577132 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 577141 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 577142 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 577151 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 577152 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 577011 1835 1979 145 0.998 0.188 0.213 3.215 0.212 0.024 2 577012 1840 1979 140 0.998 0.202 0.039 3.185 0.205 0.179 3 577021 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.246 0.575 3.378 0.243 0.168 4 577022 1835 1979 145 0.997 0.211 0.022 2.793 0.217 0.215 5 577031 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.272 0.788 3.785 0.259 0.088 6 577032 1842 1979 138 0.998 0.273 0.767 3.909 0.280 0.127 7 577041 1846 1979 134 0.999 0.243 0.499 3.038 0.268 -0.030 8 577042 1833 1979 147 0.997 0.264 0.629 3.581 0.277 0.065 9 577051 1842 1979 138 0.999 0.280 0.559 3.386 0.284 0.184 10 577052 1842 1979 138 0.999 0.264 0.703 4.004 0.270 0.057 11 577061 1855 1979 125 0.999 0.186 0.256 2.657 0.213 -0.100 12 577062 1844 1979 136 0.999 0.201 0.301 3.061 0.228 0.020 13 577071 1844 1979 136 0.999 0.211 0.722 3.940 0.224 0.010 14 577072 1842 1979 138 0.999 0.238 0.508 3.721 0.253 0.096 15 577091 1840 1979 140 0.997 0.215 0.588 3.892 0.250 -0.180 16 577092 1847 1979 133 0.997 0.255 0.877 4.484 0.235 0.185 17 577111 1854 1971 118 1.000 0.251 1.421 6.949 0.259 0.105 18 577112 1847 1979 133 1.000 0.226 1.015 4.357 0.220 0.169 19 577121 1850 1979 130 0.999 0.250 1.295 7.423 0.240 0.014 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 577122 1853 1979 127 0.999 0.222 0.685 3.304 0.214 0.269 21 577131 1847 1979 133 1.000 0.212 0.024 2.426 0.239 0.055 22 577132 1845 1979 135 0.999 0.252 1.415 7.509 0.255 -0.055 23 577141 1849 1979 131 0.998 0.206 0.305 5.612 0.233 -0.036 24 577142 1847 1979 133 0.998 0.230 0.295 3.772 0.255 0.019 25 577151 1846 1979 134 0.999 0.212 -0.043 2.397 0.240 0.109 26 577152 1844 1979 136 1.000 0.198 0.079 3.288 0.223 0.036 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 136 0.999 0.231 0.559 3.964 0.242 0.069 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.001 0.028 0.417 1.403 0.023 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 0.999 0.228 0.567 3.651 0.240 0.061 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.001 0.041 0.511 0.819 0.035 0.154 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.997 0.186 -0.043 2.397 0.205 -0.180 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 133 0.998 0.211 0.256 3.185 0.223 0.014 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 140 0.999 0.252 0.767 4.004 0.259 0.168 MAXIMUM VALUE 147 1.000 0.280 1.421 7.509 0.284 0.269 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.327 0.110 0.006 -0.018 3.363 -0.007 0.708 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.007 SERIES 577042 AND 577051 138 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.708 SERIES 577121 AND 577122 127 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 89.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.363 0.368 0.302 SDEV 0.133 0.158 0.158 SERR 0.007 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.937 0.938 0.918 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1833 1979 147 0.986 0.146 0.315 2.874 0.167 -0.046 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.354 0.130 0.052 53 94 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.35 1.01 1.04 1.40 2.80 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.046 0.088 0.030 -0.007 -0.076 0.024 -0.039 -0.035 -0.055 -0.139 PACF -0.046 0.086 0.038 -0.011 -0.083 0.018 -0.023 -0.037 -0.057 -0.144 95% C.L. 0.165 0.165 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.169 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.092 0.079 0.007 0.023 -0.092 0.025 -0.037 -0.060 -0.045 -0.162 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.092 2 -0.086 0.071 3 -0.087 0.073 0.021 4 -0.087 0.071 0.023 0.020 5 -0.086 0.073 0.029 0.012 -0.092 6 -0.085 0.073 0.029 0.011 -0.092 0.006 7 -0.085 0.071 0.029 0.012 -0.090 0.004 -0.022 8 -0.086 0.071 0.023 0.013 -0.088 0.009 -0.027 -0.066 9 -0.090 0.070 0.024 0.008 -0.088 0.010 -0.024 -0.070 -0.050 10 -0.098 0.058 0.020 0.010 -0.103 0.012 -0.020 -0.058 -0.065 -0.173 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1091.50 1092.25 1093.51 1095.45 1097.39 1098.13 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1100.13 1102.06 1103.42 1105.06 1102.56 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 577011 0 0.001 2 577012 0 0.032 3 577021 0 0.031 4 577022 0 0.046 5 577031 0 0.008 6 577032 0 0.016 7 577041 0 0.001 8 577042 0 0.004 9 577051 0 0.034 10 577052 0 0.003 11 577061 0 0.010 12 577062 0 0.000 13 577071 0 0.000 14 577072 0 0.009 15 577091 0 0.033 16 577092 0 0.034 17 577111 0 0.011 18 577112 0 0.030 19 577121 0 0.000 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 577122 0 0.072 21 577131 0 0.003 22 577132 0 0.003 23 577141 0 0.001 24 577142 0 0.000 25 577151 0 0.012 26 577152 0 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.015 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.018 MEDIAN 0 0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.030 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.001 UPPER HINGE 0 0.031 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.072 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 577011 1835 1979 145 1.000 0.188 0.213 3.215 0.211 0.024 2 577012 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.202 0.039 3.185 0.205 0.179 3 577021 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.246 0.575 3.378 0.243 0.168 4 577022 1835 1979 145 1.000 0.211 0.022 2.793 0.216 0.215 5 577031 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.272 0.788 3.785 0.259 0.088 6 577032 1842 1979 138 1.000 0.273 0.767 3.909 0.279 0.127 7 577041 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.243 0.499 3.038 0.267 -0.030 8 577042 1833 1979 147 1.000 0.264 0.629 3.581 0.276 0.065 9 577051 1842 1979 138 1.000 0.280 0.559 3.386 0.283 0.184 10 577052 1842 1979 138 1.000 0.264 0.703 4.004 0.270 0.057 11 577061 1855 1979 125 1.000 0.186 0.256 2.657 0.213 -0.100 12 577062 1844 1979 136 1.000 0.201 0.301 3.061 0.227 0.020 13 577071 1844 1979 136 1.000 0.211 0.722 3.940 0.224 0.010 14 577072 1842 1979 138 1.000 0.238 0.508 3.721 0.253 0.096 15 577091 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.215 0.588 3.892 0.249 -0.180 16 577092 1847 1979 133 1.000 0.255 0.877 4.484 0.234 0.185 17 577111 1854 1971 118 1.000 0.251 1.421 6.949 0.259 0.105 18 577112 1847 1979 133 1.000 0.226 1.015 4.357 0.220 0.169 19 577121 1850 1979 130 1.000 0.250 1.295 7.423 0.240 0.014 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 577122 1853 1979 127 1.000 0.222 0.685 3.304 0.214 0.269 21 577131 1847 1979 133 1.000 0.212 0.024 2.426 0.239 0.055 22 577132 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.252 1.415 7.509 0.255 -0.055 23 577141 1849 1979 131 1.000 0.206 0.305 5.612 0.232 -0.036 24 577142 1847 1979 133 1.000 0.230 0.295 3.772 0.254 0.019 25 577151 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.212 -0.043 2.397 0.240 0.109 26 577152 1844 1979 136 1.000 0.198 0.079 3.288 0.223 0.036 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 136 1.000 0.231 0.559 3.964 0.242 0.069 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.028 0.417 1.403 0.023 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 1.000 0.228 0.567 3.651 0.240 0.061 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.000 0.041 0.511 0.819 0.035 0.154 MINIMUM VALUE 118 1.000 0.186 -0.043 2.397 0.205 -0.180 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.211 0.256 3.185 0.223 0.014 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 140 1.000 0.252 0.767 4.004 0.259 0.168 MAXIMUM VALUE 147 1.000 0.280 1.421 7.509 0.283 0.269 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.327 0.110 0.006 -0.018 3.363 -0.007 0.708 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.007 SERIES 577042 AND 577051 138 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.708 SERIES 577121 AND 577122 127 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 89.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.363 0.368 0.302 SDEV 0.133 0.158 0.158 SERR 0.007 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.937 0.938 0.918 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1833 1979 147 0.987 0.146 0.315 2.875 0.167 -0.046 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.353 0.130 0.052 53 94 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.36 1.01 1.04 1.41 2.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.045 0.087 0.029 -0.007 -0.075 0.024 -0.039 -0.036 -0.056 -0.139 PACF -0.045 0.085 0.037 -0.012 -0.083 0.018 -0.023 -0.037 -0.058 -0.144 95% C.L. 0.165 0.165 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.169 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1833 1979 147 0.987 0.146 0.315 2.875 0.167 -0.046 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.045 0.087 0.029 -0.007 -0.075 0.024 -0.039 -0.036 -0.056 -0.139 PACF -0.045 0.085 0.037 -0.012 -0.083 0.018 -0.023 -0.037 -0.058 -0.144 95% C.L. 0.165 0.165 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.169 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES