RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT154X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT154X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 552 1 Pieterlen BE,Fi.Vergl.Pr DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCAB - 552 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 450 4710-720 1905 1979 - 552 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 552311 1912 1979 68 0.843 0.127 -0.503 2.411 0.130 0.350 2 552312 1905 1979 75 0.883 0.117 -0.789 3.273 0.110 0.436 3 552321 1909 1979 71 0.902 0.079 0.079 2.239 0.070 0.491 4 552322 1909 1979 71 0.862 0.083 0.196 2.632 0.076 0.539 5 552331 1911 1979 69 0.945 0.095 -1.103 4.455 0.104 0.214 6 552332 1909 1979 71 0.933 0.092 -0.518 2.842 0.105 0.195 7 552341 1911 1979 69 0.863 0.077 -0.613 3.794 0.090 0.226 8 552342 1915 1979 65 0.842 0.083 -0.768 3.915 0.087 0.412 9 552351 1910 1979 70 0.921 0.076 -1.075 3.939 0.060 0.524 10 552352 1913 1979 67 0.917 0.065 -0.429 3.205 0.065 0.339 11 552361 1910 1979 70 0.943 0.086 -0.860 3.900 0.072 0.450 12 552362 1914 1979 66 0.935 0.088 -0.506 2.472 0.070 0.551 13 552371 1911 1979 69 0.892 0.079 -0.524 3.400 0.074 0.467 14 552372 1908 1979 72 0.866 0.090 -0.194 2.208 0.079 0.544 15 552381 1916 1979 64 0.897 0.076 -0.666 3.229 0.089 0.101 16 552382 1907 1979 73 0.875 0.088 -0.240 2.358 0.087 0.455 17 552391 1916 1979 64 0.867 0.078 0.010 2.891 0.079 0.447 18 552392 1911 1979 69 0.899 0.076 -0.306 2.725 0.069 0.504 19 552401 1910 1979 70 0.931 0.070 -0.255 2.327 0.053 0.587 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 552402 1920 1979 60 0.941 0.052 -0.132 2.952 0.057 0.237 21 552411 1916 1979 64 0.953 0.054 -0.606 3.068 0.049 0.410 22 552412 1912 1979 68 0.949 0.066 -0.799 3.017 0.048 0.597 23 552421 1913 1979 67 0.876 0.096 -0.412 2.791 0.112 0.285 24 552422 1916 1979 64 0.890 0.084 -0.364 2.631 0.098 0.147 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1905 TO 1979 75 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 68 0.901 0.082 -0.474 3.028 0.080 0.396 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.035 0.017 0.337 0.616 0.021 0.146 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 69 0.898 0.081 -0.504 2.922 0.078 0.441 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.063 0.013 0.469 0.785 0.027 0.253 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.842 0.052 -1.103 2.208 0.048 0.101 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 0.871 0.076 -0.717 2.551 0.067 0.261 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 70 0.934 0.089 -0.248 3.336 0.094 0.514 MAXIMUM VALUE 75 0.953 0.127 0.196 4.455 0.130 0.597 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.617 0.123 0.007 -0.600 3.055 0.235 0.893 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.235 SERIES 552341 AND 552362 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.893 SERIES 552331 AND 552332 69 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 88.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.693 0.734 0.664 0.651 0.494 SDEV 0.143 0.104 0.139 0.132 0.196 SERR 0.009 0.006 0.008 0.008 0.012 EPS 0.982 0.985 0.979 0.978 0.959 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1905 1979 75 0.893 0.074 -0.324 2.395 0.065 0.512 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.251 -0.066 0.117 23 52 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.18 1.01 1.08 1.26 1.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 69. 5. 60. 66. 70. 75. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.505 0.431 0.409 0.345 0.331 0.210 0.193 0.159 0.194 0.052 PACF 0.505 0.236 0.176 0.062 0.078 -0.092 0.000 -0.015 0.099 -0.153 95% C.L. 0.231 0.284 0.317 0.344 0.362 0.378 0.384 0.389 0.392 0.398 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.340 0.340 0.177 0.185 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 552311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00074856 0.81711590 2 552312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00245633 0.79012614 3 552321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00078135 0.92981893 4 552322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020490 0.86906642 5 552331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007198 0.94269818 6 552332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00031422 0.94412875 7 552341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00151809 0.81034529 8 552342 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00060227 0.82258654 9 552351 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00082827 0.89173913 10 552352 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00064131 0.89565808 11 552361 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00061692 0.96504349 12 552362 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00232857 1.01330996 13 552371 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022653 0.88424551 14 552372 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016593 0.87161189 15 552381 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.89718753 16 552382 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00066858 0.85046804 17 552391 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00074863 0.84316963 18 552392 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00068981 0.92341858 19 552401 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00088706 0.89936644 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 552402 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00087830 0.96762145 21 552411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013851 0.94815475 22 552412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00199431 0.88016683 23 552421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00081970 0.90428764 24 552422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005563 0.88803571 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 552311 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.150 -0.377 2.224 0.128 0.351 2 552312 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.120 -0.391 3.282 0.109 0.313 3 552321 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.085 -0.066 2.447 0.069 0.447 4 552322 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.096 0.164 2.691 0.075 0.529 5 552331 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.101 -1.088 4.404 0.102 0.211 6 552332 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.098 -0.572 2.950 0.103 0.184 7 552341 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.082 -0.468 4.341 0.089 0.110 8 552342 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.098 -0.626 3.894 0.086 0.404 9 552351 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.081 -0.741 3.010 0.059 0.513 10 552352 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.069 -0.252 2.880 0.064 0.324 11 552361 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.090 -0.879 3.723 0.071 0.434 12 552362 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.082 -0.417 3.002 0.069 0.332 13 552371 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.089 -0.443 3.243 0.073 0.459 14 552372 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.103 -0.196 2.209 0.078 0.536 15 552381 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.085 -0.667 3.229 0.087 0.099 16 552382 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.100 -0.175 2.169 0.086 0.437 17 552391 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.089 0.040 2.876 0.077 0.423 18 552392 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.083 -0.512 2.939 0.068 0.466 19 552401 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.073 0.103 2.174 0.052 0.554 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 552402 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.053 -0.256 3.417 0.057 0.156 21 552411 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.057 -0.537 2.959 0.048 0.406 22 552412 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.057 0.021 2.253 0.047 0.419 23 552421 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.108 -0.478 2.715 0.110 0.250 24 552422 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.094 -0.350 2.618 0.097 0.145 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 68 1.000 0.089 -0.382 2.985 0.079 0.354 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.000 0.021 0.309 0.635 0.021 0.141 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.089 -0.404 2.944 0.076 0.405 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.000 0.018 0.369 0.730 0.026 0.223 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.053 -1.088 2.169 0.047 0.099 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 1.000 0.081 -0.554 2.532 0.066 0.230 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.099 -0.185 3.262 0.093 0.453 MAXIMUM VALUE 75 1.000 0.150 0.164 4.404 0.128 0.554 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 552311 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 552312 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 552321 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 552322 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 552331 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 552332 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 552341 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 552342 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 552351 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 552352 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 552361 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 552362 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 552371 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 552372 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 552381 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 552382 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 552391 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 552392 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 552401 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 552402 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 552411 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 552412 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 552421 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 552422 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 552311 1912 1979 68 0.999 0.133 -0.400 2.425 0.128 0.223 2 552312 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.106 -0.843 3.574 0.108 0.130 3 552321 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.068 0.017 2.362 0.068 0.148 4 552322 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.069 -0.268 2.596 0.075 0.126 5 552331 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.095 -1.124 4.126 0.102 0.089 6 552332 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.089 -0.627 3.104 0.103 0.023 7 552341 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.081 -0.533 4.520 0.089 0.084 8 552342 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.091 -0.566 3.964 0.086 0.307 9 552351 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.060 0.067 2.548 0.058 0.123 10 552352 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.062 -0.123 2.823 0.065 0.166 11 552361 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.069 -0.810 3.663 0.070 0.145 12 552362 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.070 -0.357 3.178 0.068 0.133 13 552371 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.070 -0.358 2.743 0.073 0.085 14 552372 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.077 -0.249 2.769 0.078 0.134 15 552381 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.076 -0.800 3.610 0.087 -0.082 16 552382 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.076 -0.239 2.643 0.085 -0.007 17 552391 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.076 -0.288 2.638 0.077 0.211 18 552392 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.068 -0.632 2.937 0.067 0.222 19 552401 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.052 0.113 3.712 0.052 0.114 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 552402 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.049 -0.552 3.483 0.056 0.026 21 552411 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.051 -0.292 2.721 0.048 0.289 22 552412 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.048 -0.150 2.828 0.047 0.232 23 552421 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.099 -0.743 3.226 0.110 0.124 24 552422 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.089 -0.465 3.051 0.097 0.063 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 68 1.000 0.076 -0.426 3.135 0.079 0.129 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.000 0.020 0.310 0.578 0.021 0.091 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.073 -0.379 2.994 0.076 0.128 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.000 0.024 0.386 0.910 0.027 0.104 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.999 0.048 -1.124 2.362 0.047 -0.082 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 1.000 0.065 -0.630 2.682 0.066 0.085 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.089 -0.244 3.592 0.093 0.189 MAXIMUM VALUE 75 1.000 0.133 0.113 4.520 0.128 0.307 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.624 0.093 0.006 -0.464 3.361 0.311 0.896 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.311 SERIES 552361 AND 552411 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.896 SERIES 552331 AND 552332 69 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 88.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.750 0.727 0.656 0.677 0.488 SDEV 0.111 0.103 0.120 0.102 0.216 SERR 0.007 0.006 0.007 0.006 0.013 EPS 0.986 0.985 0.979 0.980 0.958 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1905 1979 75 1.004 0.064 -0.412 2.629 0.064 0.170 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.482 -0.129 0.176 34 41 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.10 0.20 1.00 1.04 1.24 2.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.168 0.073 -0.024 -0.052 -0.060 -0.188 -0.216 -0.148 -0.035 -0.163 PACF 0.168 0.046 -0.045 -0.046 -0.041 -0.173 -0.168 -0.086 -0.001 -0.197 95% C.L. 0.231 0.237 0.239 0.239 0.239 0.240 0.248 0.258 0.262 0.262 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.032 0.171 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.146 -0.026 -0.005 -0.100 0.002 -0.156 -0.159 -0.080 0.077 -0.123 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.146 2 0.154 -0.049 3 0.154 -0.050 0.007 4 0.155 -0.055 0.022 -0.104 5 0.158 -0.056 0.024 -0.109 0.034 6 0.164 -0.075 0.029 -0.119 0.062 -0.176 7 0.145 -0.068 0.015 -0.116 0.054 -0.157 -0.111 8 0.137 -0.079 0.019 -0.124 0.055 -0.162 -0.101 -0.072 9 0.144 -0.069 0.035 -0.129 0.067 -0.164 -0.093 -0.086 0.099 10 0.164 -0.087 0.016 -0.163 0.081 -0.191 -0.086 -0.100 0.129 -0.206 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 372.87 373.24 375.06 377.06 378.25 380.16 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 379.81 380.88 382.49 383.74 382.48 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 552311 0 0.053 2 552312 0 0.017 3 552321 0 0.022 4 552322 0 0.016 5 552331 0 0.008 6 552332 0 0.001 7 552341 0 0.007 8 552342 0 0.099 9 552351 0 0.016 10 552352 0 0.028 11 552361 0 0.024 12 552362 0 0.019 13 552371 0 0.008 14 552372 0 0.019 15 552381 0 0.008 16 552382 0 0.000 17 552391 0 0.045 18 552392 0 0.050 19 552401 0 0.013 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 552402 0 0.001 21 552411 0 0.088 22 552412 0 0.055 23 552421 0 0.016 24 552422 0 0.004 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.026 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.027 MEDIAN 0 0.017 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.029 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.008 UPPER HINGE 0 0.037 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.099 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 552311 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.133 -0.400 2.425 0.128 0.223 2 552312 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.106 -0.843 3.574 0.108 0.130 3 552321 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.068 0.017 2.362 0.068 0.148 4 552322 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.069 -0.268 2.596 0.075 0.126 5 552331 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.095 -1.124 4.126 0.102 0.089 6 552332 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.089 -0.627 3.104 0.103 0.023 7 552341 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.081 -0.533 4.520 0.089 0.084 8 552342 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.091 -0.566 3.964 0.086 0.307 9 552351 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.060 0.067 2.548 0.058 0.123 10 552352 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.062 -0.123 2.823 0.065 0.166 11 552361 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.069 -0.810 3.663 0.070 0.145 12 552362 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.070 -0.357 3.178 0.068 0.133 13 552371 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.070 -0.358 2.743 0.073 0.085 14 552372 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.077 -0.249 2.769 0.078 0.134 15 552381 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.076 -0.800 3.610 0.087 -0.082 16 552382 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.076 -0.239 2.643 0.085 -0.007 17 552391 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.076 -0.288 2.638 0.077 0.211 18 552392 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.068 -0.632 2.937 0.067 0.222 19 552401 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.052 0.113 3.712 0.052 0.114 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 552402 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.049 -0.552 3.483 0.056 0.026 21 552411 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.051 -0.292 2.721 0.048 0.289 22 552412 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.048 -0.150 2.828 0.047 0.232 23 552421 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.099 -0.743 3.226 0.110 0.124 24 552422 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.089 -0.465 3.051 0.097 0.063 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 68 1.000 0.076 -0.426 3.135 0.079 0.129 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.000 0.020 0.310 0.578 0.021 0.091 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.073 -0.379 2.994 0.076 0.128 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.000 0.024 0.386 0.910 0.027 0.104 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.048 -1.124 2.362 0.047 -0.082 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 1.000 0.065 -0.630 2.682 0.066 0.085 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.089 -0.244 3.592 0.093 0.189 MAXIMUM VALUE 75 1.000 0.133 0.113 4.520 0.128 0.307 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.624 0.093 0.006 -0.464 3.361 0.311 0.896 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.311 SERIES 552361 AND 552411 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.896 SERIES 552331 AND 552332 69 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 88.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.750 0.727 0.656 0.677 0.488 SDEV 0.111 0.103 0.120 0.102 0.216 SERR 0.007 0.006 0.007 0.006 0.013 EPS 0.986 0.985 0.979 0.980 0.958 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1905 1979 75 1.004 0.064 -0.411 2.629 0.064 0.171 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.481 -0.129 0.175 34 41 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.10 0.21 1.00 1.04 1.24 2.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.168 0.073 -0.024 -0.052 -0.060 -0.189 -0.216 -0.147 -0.035 -0.163 PACF 0.168 0.046 -0.045 -0.046 -0.041 -0.174 -0.168 -0.086 -0.001 -0.197 95% C.L. 0.231 0.237 0.239 0.239 0.239 0.240 0.248 0.258 0.262 0.262 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.032 0.172 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1905 1979 75 1.004 0.064 -0.411 2.629 0.064 0.171 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.168 0.073 -0.024 -0.052 -0.060 -0.189 -0.216 -0.147 -0.035 -0.163 PACF 0.168 0.046 -0.045 -0.046 -0.041 -0.174 -0.168 -0.086 -0.001 -0.197 95% C.L. 0.231 0.237 0.239 0.239 0.239 0.240 0.248 0.258 0.262 0.262 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.032 0.172 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES