RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT154W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT154W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 552 1 Pieterlen BE,Fi.Vergl.Pr WIDTH_RING PCAB - 552 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 450 4710-720 1905 1979 - 552 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 552311 1912 1979 68 2.707 1.109 1.081 4.174 0.280 0.703 2 552312 1905 1979 75 2.529 1.372 1.205 4.384 0.296 0.787 3 552321 1909 1979 71 2.782 1.032 0.222 2.779 0.232 0.665 4 552322 1909 1979 71 2.683 1.178 0.389 3.173 0.209 0.811 5 552331 1911 1979 69 2.848 0.741 -0.165 2.790 0.205 0.559 6 552332 1909 1979 71 2.912 0.975 0.845 4.178 0.230 0.612 7 552341 1911 1979 69 2.328 1.653 1.456 3.891 0.179 0.917 8 552342 1915 1979 65 2.662 1.302 1.429 4.843 0.172 0.834 9 552351 1910 1979 70 2.542 1.032 2.227 9.895 0.156 0.650 10 552352 1913 1979 67 2.506 1.017 1.259 4.218 0.159 0.832 11 552361 1910 1979 70 1.909 1.088 2.475 10.978 0.261 0.743 12 552362 1914 1979 66 2.050 0.864 1.502 5.797 0.276 0.588 13 552371 1911 1979 69 2.269 1.037 1.445 4.770 0.204 0.834 14 552372 1908 1979 72 2.346 1.158 1.388 4.384 0.235 0.831 15 552381 1916 1979 64 2.341 0.965 0.931 3.150 0.211 0.778 16 552382 1907 1979 73 2.111 1.113 1.608 5.794 0.220 0.833 17 552391 1916 1979 64 2.715 1.110 1.496 6.530 0.225 0.715 18 552392 1911 1979 69 2.149 1.188 1.474 4.813 0.224 0.801 19 552401 1910 1979 70 2.586 1.486 1.435 4.177 0.163 0.908 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 552402 1920 1979 60 2.900 1.485 1.943 6.122 0.172 0.866 21 552411 1916 1979 64 2.388 1.135 0.314 2.298 0.251 0.820 22 552412 1912 1979 68 2.796 1.413 0.815 3.059 0.227 0.808 23 552421 1913 1979 67 2.725 1.673 1.127 3.694 0.268 0.851 24 552422 1916 1979 64 2.321 1.498 1.066 3.179 0.273 0.814 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1905 TO 1979 75 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 68 2.504 1.193 1.207 4.711 0.222 0.773 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.282 0.243 0.610 2.085 0.041 0.098 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 69 2.536 1.124 1.324 4.198 0.224 0.809 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.396 0.360 0.597 2.143 0.065 0.125 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.909 0.741 -0.165 2.298 0.156 0.559 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 2.324 1.032 0.888 3.176 0.191 0.709 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 70 2.720 1.392 1.485 5.319 0.256 0.834 MAXIMUM VALUE 75 2.912 1.673 2.475 10.978 0.296 0.917 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.585 0.246 0.015 -0.986 3.246 -0.232 0.933 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.232 SERIES 552332 AND 552342 65 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.933 SERIES 552371 AND 552372 69 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 88.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.525 0.570 0.511 0.294 0.367 SDEV 0.237 0.224 0.260 0.324 0.282 SERR 0.014 0.013 0.016 0.019 0.017 EPS 0.964 0.970 0.962 0.909 0.933 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1905 1979 75 2.653 1.124 1.056 3.232 0.149 0.899 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.601 0.169 0.334 24 51 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.26 1.00 1.04 1.30 2.49 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 69. 5. 60. 66. 70. 75. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.887 0.804 0.689 0.593 0.532 0.488 0.465 0.418 0.384 0.337 PACF 0.887 0.081 -0.178 -0.008 0.138 0.065 0.051 -0.126 0.014 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.231 0.370 0.454 0.507 0.542 0.570 0.591 0.611 0.626 0.638 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.825 0.908 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 552311 1 3.83072662 0.14988150 0.00000000 2.35912323 2 552312 1 4.36384106 0.04337308 0.00000000 1.26722789 3 552321 1 2.49136996 0.18971780 0.00000000 2.61442852 4 552322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03885748 4.08182716 5 552331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00443588 3.00293684 6 552332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00322300 2.79566193 7 552341 1 6.06520844 0.05602488 0.00000000 0.83408189 8 552342 1 4.66653633 0.05532674 0.00000000 1.43412173 9 552351 1 4.68569613 0.15596062 0.00000000 2.14540553 10 552352 1 3.27365017 0.05248466 0.00000000 1.62648654 11 552361 1 4.55945253 0.14436452 0.00000000 1.48976266 12 552362 1 5.61015844 0.50182730 0.00000000 1.91957593 13 552371 1 3.50182462 0.09040259 0.00000000 1.73393309 14 552372 1 4.05035114 0.07786059 0.00000000 1.65406752 15 552381 1 2.83973432 0.04039937 0.00000000 1.34549570 16 552382 1 3.70258069 0.06016093 0.00000000 1.30298948 17 552391 1 6.05372000 0.30683503 0.00000000 2.45176268 18 552392 1 4.04989433 0.04679460 0.00000000 0.97249949 19 552401 1 4.80698442 0.04331331 0.00000000 1.10976005 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 552402 1 4.78313208 0.09115009 0.00000000 2.06852889 21 552411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04564400 3.87139893 22 552412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05140894 4.56919670 23 552421 1 5.15593481 0.04937170 0.00000000 1.26005435 24 552422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.06609524 4.46934509 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 552311 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.320 0.173 2.508 0.277 0.480 2 552312 1905 1979 75 1.001 0.335 0.350 2.586 0.291 0.402 3 552321 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.357 0.353 3.104 0.227 0.661 4 552322 1909 1979 71 0.991 0.366 2.100 9.376 0.205 0.701 5 552331 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.257 -0.228 2.850 0.202 0.537 6 552332 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.338 1.011 4.829 0.227 0.599 7 552341 1911 1979 69 1.001 0.278 0.946 3.808 0.173 0.681 8 552342 1915 1979 65 0.999 0.202 -0.036 2.763 0.168 0.543 9 552351 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.240 0.329 2.478 0.152 0.646 10 552352 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.234 0.454 2.536 0.154 0.646 11 552361 1910 1979 70 1.001 0.340 0.298 2.581 0.257 0.574 12 552362 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.361 1.310 6.204 0.264 0.542 13 552371 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.283 -0.003 2.765 0.199 0.664 14 552372 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.287 -0.091 2.357 0.230 0.557 15 552381 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.266 -0.142 2.541 0.206 0.574 16 552382 1907 1979 73 0.999 0.301 0.489 2.470 0.215 0.552 17 552391 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.308 0.112 3.072 0.215 0.678 18 552392 1911 1979 69 0.998 0.258 -0.044 2.444 0.215 0.506 19 552401 1910 1979 70 1.004 0.298 0.382 3.143 0.157 0.734 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 552402 1920 1979 60 1.001 0.294 0.068 2.742 0.171 0.723 21 552411 1916 1979 64 0.995 0.328 0.536 3.114 0.246 0.618 22 552412 1912 1979 68 1.002 0.344 0.857 4.190 0.223 0.609 23 552421 1913 1979 67 0.999 0.433 0.881 3.107 0.260 0.731 24 552422 1916 1979 64 1.081 0.537 3.122 13.891 0.262 0.467 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 68 1.003 0.315 0.551 3.811 0.216 0.601 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.017 0.069 0.765 2.652 0.040 0.089 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.304 0.352 2.807 0.215 0.604 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.001 0.070 0.836 0.937 0.065 0.129 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.991 0.202 -0.228 2.357 0.152 0.402 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 1.000 0.272 0.033 2.538 0.186 0.542 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 70 1.001 0.342 0.869 3.476 0.251 0.671 MAXIMUM VALUE 75 1.081 0.537 3.122 13.891 0.291 0.734 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 552311 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 552312 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 552321 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 552322 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 552331 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 552332 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 552341 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 552342 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 552351 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 552352 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 552361 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 552362 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 552371 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 552372 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 552381 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 552382 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 552391 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 552392 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 552401 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 552402 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 552411 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 552412 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 552421 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 552422 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 552311 1912 1979 68 0.994 0.298 0.138 2.312 0.274 0.419 2 552312 1905 1979 75 0.994 0.307 0.086 2.129 0.290 0.324 3 552321 1909 1979 71 0.993 0.319 0.312 2.498 0.225 0.620 4 552322 1909 1979 71 0.994 0.306 1.571 7.219 0.204 0.615 5 552331 1911 1979 69 0.996 0.231 -0.295 3.061 0.200 0.472 6 552332 1909 1979 71 0.994 0.276 0.124 2.617 0.225 0.522 7 552341 1911 1979 69 0.995 0.246 1.019 4.154 0.173 0.601 8 552342 1915 1979 65 0.998 0.187 -0.216 2.789 0.168 0.481 9 552351 1910 1979 70 0.994 0.205 0.354 2.563 0.150 0.549 10 552352 1913 1979 67 0.996 0.213 0.409 2.509 0.153 0.589 11 552361 1910 1979 70 0.994 0.308 0.130 2.549 0.255 0.486 12 552362 1914 1979 66 0.995 0.297 0.741 4.231 0.263 0.378 13 552371 1911 1979 69 0.997 0.264 -0.180 2.751 0.198 0.624 14 552372 1908 1979 72 0.997 0.276 -0.065 2.388 0.229 0.524 15 552381 1916 1979 64 0.995 0.244 -0.061 2.539 0.207 0.504 16 552382 1907 1979 73 0.997 0.283 0.460 2.590 0.215 0.508 17 552391 1916 1979 64 0.993 0.253 -0.026 3.133 0.210 0.457 18 552392 1911 1979 69 0.997 0.226 0.071 2.570 0.214 0.362 19 552401 1910 1979 70 0.991 0.237 0.504 3.319 0.156 0.594 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 552402 1920 1979 60 0.993 0.247 0.131 3.221 0.169 0.644 21 552411 1916 1979 64 0.997 0.313 0.397 2.790 0.245 0.558 22 552412 1912 1979 68 0.997 0.330 0.781 3.882 0.222 0.597 23 552421 1913 1979 67 0.993 0.399 0.761 2.850 0.258 0.686 24 552422 1916 1979 64 0.995 0.324 0.504 2.549 0.263 0.335 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 68 0.995 0.275 0.319 3.051 0.215 0.519 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.002 0.048 0.434 1.045 0.040 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 69 0.995 0.276 0.225 2.684 0.214 0.523 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.003 0.067 0.481 0.633 0.065 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.991 0.187 -0.295 2.129 0.150 0.324 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 0.994 0.240 0.023 2.544 0.185 0.464 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 70 0.997 0.307 0.504 3.177 0.250 0.599 MAXIMUM VALUE 75 0.998 0.399 1.571 7.219 0.290 0.686 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.454 0.140 0.008 -0.314 2.881 0.027 0.811 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.027 SERIES 552362 AND 552422 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.811 SERIES 552371 AND 552372 69 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 88.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.547 0.469 0.559 0.335 0.292 SDEV 0.186 0.227 0.211 0.289 0.278 SERR 0.011 0.014 0.013 0.017 0.017 EPS 0.967 0.955 0.968 0.923 0.908 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1905 1979 75 0.991 0.190 -0.057 2.206 0.147 0.606 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.489 0.159 0.036 24 51 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.35 1.00 1.03 1.38 2.32 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.06 0.00 0.89 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.598 0.267 -0.007 -0.152 -0.177 -0.142 -0.206 -0.234 -0.207 -0.213 PACF 0.598 -0.142 -0.167 -0.065 -0.011 -0.017 -0.212 -0.084 -0.019 -0.152 95% C.L. 0.231 0.302 0.315 0.315 0.319 0.324 0.327 0.334 0.343 0.349 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.377 0.603 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.610 0.286 0.040 -0.157 -0.186 -0.160 -0.227 -0.255 -0.202 -0.206 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.610 2 0.695 -0.138 3 0.678 -0.054 -0.121 4 0.659 -0.063 -0.015 -0.157 5 0.664 -0.062 -0.012 -0.179 0.034 6 0.665 -0.067 -0.013 -0.181 0.051 -0.026 7 0.660 -0.056 -0.051 -0.183 0.037 0.117 -0.214 8 0.638 -0.044 -0.048 -0.202 0.031 0.112 -0.148 -0.101 9 0.640 -0.041 -0.050 -0.202 0.035 0.112 -0.147 -0.112 0.018 10 0.643 -0.057 -0.071 -0.186 0.040 0.083 -0.155 -0.118 0.110 -0.144 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 543.25 510.28 510.83 511.73 511.86 513.78 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 515.73 514.19 515.43 517.41 517.84 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.610 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 37.27 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 159.41 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.610 0.373 0.228 0.139 0.085 0.052 0.032 0.019 0.012 0.0072 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 552311 1 0.183 0.426 2 552312 1 0.127 0.326 3 552321 1 0.469 0.627 4 552322 1 0.454 0.619 5 552331 1 0.231 0.476 6 552332 1 0.291 0.536 7 552341 1 0.369 0.603 8 552342 1 0.244 0.489 9 552351 1 0.309 0.556 10 552352 1 0.367 0.590 11 552361 1 0.257 0.492 12 552362 1 0.160 0.391 13 552371 1 0.404 0.624 14 552372 1 0.279 0.528 15 552381 1 0.280 0.508 16 552382 1 0.259 0.508 17 552391 1 0.211 0.458 18 552392 1 0.131 0.362 19 552401 1 0.381 0.614 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 552402 1 0.447 0.655 21 552411 1 0.323 0.564 22 552412 1 0.368 0.604 23 552421 1 0.495 0.688 24 552422 1 0.122 0.339 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.298 0.524 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.112 0.102 MEDIAN 1 0.286 0.532 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.154 0.142 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.122 0.326 LOWER HINGE 1 0.221 0.467 UPPER HINGE 1 0.375 0.609 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.495 0.688 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 552311 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.270 0.092 2.388 0.314 -0.017 2 552312 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.290 0.068 2.145 0.342 -0.050 3 552321 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.249 0.489 3.145 0.260 0.225 4 552322 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.240 1.213 6.579 0.223 0.207 5 552331 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.203 -0.031 2.382 0.234 -0.036 6 552332 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.232 0.153 2.699 0.262 0.022 7 552341 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.196 0.557 3.417 0.211 0.051 8 552342 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.162 -0.098 2.891 0.193 -0.046 9 552351 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.170 0.760 4.038 0.185 0.006 10 552352 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.171 0.369 2.790 0.180 0.099 11 552361 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.268 0.109 3.286 0.294 -0.056 12 552362 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.274 0.853 4.956 0.300 0.047 13 552371 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.206 0.089 2.744 0.234 0.093 14 552372 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.234 -0.101 2.365 0.267 0.002 15 552381 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.210 0.123 2.142 0.234 0.084 16 552382 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.244 0.818 3.586 0.255 0.011 17 552391 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.224 0.139 3.934 0.226 0.019 18 552392 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.211 0.233 2.795 0.234 0.003 19 552401 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.185 0.814 3.735 0.194 0.034 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 552402 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.186 -0.511 5.155 0.202 0.118 21 552411 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.257 0.565 3.193 0.267 0.040 22 552412 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.262 0.428 3.497 0.256 0.035 23 552421 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.289 0.330 2.717 0.318 0.141 24 552422 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.305 0.785 3.903 0.308 0.031 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 68 1.000 0.231 0.344 3.353 0.250 0.044 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.000 0.041 0.396 1.052 0.045 0.074 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.233 0.282 3.169 0.245 0.032 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.000 0.065 0.572 1.111 0.064 0.086 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.162 -0.511 2.142 0.180 -0.056 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 1.000 0.200 0.091 2.708 0.217 0.003 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.265 0.663 3.819 0.280 0.089 MAXIMUM VALUE 75 1.000 0.305 1.213 6.579 0.342 0.225 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.392 0.115 0.007 0.044 3.235 0.060 0.766 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.060 SERIES 552361 AND 552391 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.766 SERIES 552311 AND 552312 68 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 88.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.502 0.435 0.428 0.288 0.284 SDEV 0.164 0.193 0.181 0.238 0.235 SERR 0.010 0.012 0.011 0.014 0.014 EPS 0.960 0.949 0.947 0.907 0.905 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1905 1979 75 0.997 0.153 0.208 2.273 0.163 0.183 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.351 0.120 0.047 27 48 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.43 1.00 1.12 1.54 3.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.04 0.00 0.89 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.181 0.038 -0.083 -0.144 -0.103 0.029 -0.095 -0.148 -0.025 -0.125 PACF 0.181 0.006 -0.094 -0.118 -0.056 0.061 -0.132 -0.154 0.019 -0.135 95% C.L. 0.231 0.238 0.239 0.240 0.245 0.247 0.247 0.249 0.254 0.254 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.033 0.183 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.020 -0.068 -0.115 -0.086 0.069 -0.079 -0.140 0.027 -0.096 PACF -0.001 0.020 -0.068 -0.116 -0.085 0.069 -0.092 -0.176 0.016 -0.098 95% C.L. 0.231 0.231 0.231 0.232 0.235 0.237 0.238 0.239 0.244 0.244 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1905 1979 75 0.998 0.184 -0.095 2.125 0.146 0.574 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.567 0.282 0.036 -0.114 -0.154 -0.123 -0.204 -0.242 -0.206 -0.239 PACF 0.567 -0.058 -0.148 -0.091 -0.016 0.007 -0.204 -0.109 0.000 -0.169 95% C.L. 0.231 0.296 0.310 0.310 0.312 0.316 0.319 0.326 0.335 0.342 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.331 0.573 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.65 MINUTES