RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT154L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT154L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 552 1 Pieterlen BE,Fi.Vergl.Pr WIDTH_LATE PCAB - 552 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 450 4710-720 1905 1979 - 552 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 552311 1912 1979 68 0.392 0.158 0.254 3.014 0.445 0.156 2 552312 1905 1979 75 0.407 0.183 1.038 4.946 0.504 -0.111 3 552321 1909 1979 71 0.496 0.198 0.545 3.153 0.369 0.353 4 552322 1909 1979 71 0.376 0.153 0.910 3.855 0.331 0.408 5 552331 1911 1979 69 0.712 0.241 0.679 4.111 0.329 0.307 6 552332 1909 1979 71 0.735 0.226 0.485 3.087 0.297 0.269 7 552341 1911 1979 69 0.378 0.139 0.309 3.209 0.298 0.460 8 552342 1915 1979 65 0.480 0.153 0.813 4.162 0.306 0.195 9 552351 1910 1979 70 0.433 0.146 0.155 2.881 0.353 0.308 10 552352 1913 1979 67 0.452 0.132 0.244 3.378 0.304 0.242 11 552361 1910 1979 70 0.409 0.151 1.258 5.522 0.398 0.074 12 552362 1914 1979 66 0.339 0.107 0.201 2.863 0.386 -0.028 13 552371 1911 1979 69 0.453 0.151 0.513 3.234 0.309 0.373 14 552372 1908 1979 72 0.432 0.142 0.548 4.008 0.380 0.096 15 552381 1916 1979 64 0.501 0.217 1.673 6.627 0.410 0.176 16 552382 1907 1979 73 0.370 0.147 0.312 2.694 0.377 0.385 17 552391 1916 1979 64 0.504 0.193 1.382 5.567 0.319 0.396 18 552392 1911 1979 69 0.401 0.123 -0.128 2.631 0.253 0.495 19 552401 1910 1979 70 0.427 0.165 2.119 11.957 0.338 0.447 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 552402 1920 1979 60 0.565 0.164 0.516 3.458 0.271 0.196 21 552411 1916 1979 64 0.511 0.220 0.769 4.058 0.425 0.387 22 552412 1912 1979 68 0.601 0.249 1.322 6.691 0.350 0.362 23 552421 1913 1979 67 0.476 0.172 0.189 2.779 0.387 0.188 24 552422 1916 1979 64 0.398 0.182 1.238 4.741 0.379 0.352 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1905 TO 1979 75 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 68 0.469 0.171 0.723 4.276 0.355 0.270 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.101 0.038 0.549 2.021 0.058 0.156 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 69 0.442 0.161 0.546 3.657 0.352 0.307 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.104 0.049 0.857 1.793 0.080 0.204 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.339 0.107 -0.128 2.631 0.253 -0.111 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 0.399 0.147 0.281 3.051 0.307 0.182 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 70 0.503 0.195 1.138 4.843 0.387 0.386 MAXIMUM VALUE 75 0.735 0.249 2.119 11.957 0.504 0.495 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.213 0.171 0.010 -0.015 2.745 -0.203 0.682 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.203 SERIES 552391 AND 552401 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.682 SERIES 552381 AND 552382 64 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 88.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.276 0.219 0.159 0.112 0.201 SDEV 0.212 0.245 0.272 0.271 0.265 SERR 0.013 0.015 0.016 0.016 0.016 EPS 0.902 0.870 0.820 0.751 0.858 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1905 1979 75 0.439 0.095 -0.221 2.754 0.197 0.415 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.452 0.258 0.039 48 27 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.64 1.01 1.08 1.71 5.02 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 69. 5. 60. 66. 70. 75. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.409 0.372 0.361 0.252 0.293 0.140 0.230 0.151 0.215 0.041 PACF 0.409 0.246 0.187 0.014 0.114 -0.103 0.120 -0.033 0.138 -0.210 95% C.L. 0.231 0.267 0.293 0.316 0.327 0.340 0.343 0.351 0.355 0.362 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.258 0.252 0.199 0.201 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 552311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00366740 0.26509219 2 552312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00045491 0.42435315 3 552321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00090409 0.46364990 4 552322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00253454 0.46715894 5 552331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00227293 0.63262147 6 552332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00529209 0.54469615 7 552341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00312057 0.48748082 8 552342 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00134572 0.52487022 9 552351 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00284245 0.33166459 10 552352 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00271530 0.35976934 11 552361 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00191899 0.34044722 12 552362 1 0.11754874 0.00625136 0.00000000 0.24277490 13 552371 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00080818 0.42446718 14 552372 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012445 0.42740220 15 552381 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00278342 0.59171128 16 552382 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022800 0.37884703 17 552391 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00109913 0.46849704 18 552392 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00260066 0.49160272 19 552401 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00214784 0.50339133 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 552402 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00180106 0.62026554 21 552411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00444780 0.65580356 22 552412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025423 0.59181738 23 552421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00068082 0.49867028 24 552422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00206433 0.46474701 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 552311 1912 1979 68 0.996 0.366 0.194 3.366 0.438 -0.073 2 552312 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.444 0.952 4.739 0.497 -0.111 3 552321 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.396 0.470 2.921 0.364 0.332 4 552322 1909 1979 71 0.997 0.369 0.734 3.546 0.326 0.337 5 552331 1911 1979 69 0.999 0.335 0.696 3.794 0.324 0.256 6 552332 1909 1979 71 0.999 0.268 0.472 3.633 0.293 0.018 7 552341 1911 1979 69 0.996 0.329 0.297 3.116 0.294 0.383 8 552342 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.312 0.826 4.235 0.301 0.187 9 552351 1910 1979 70 0.998 0.316 0.187 2.469 0.348 0.129 10 552352 1913 1979 67 0.999 0.271 0.276 3.177 0.300 0.100 11 552361 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.348 0.856 4.179 0.393 0.023 12 552362 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.316 0.271 2.984 0.380 -0.037 13 552371 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.332 0.571 3.474 0.304 0.368 14 552372 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.329 0.553 4.009 0.374 0.093 15 552381 1916 1979 64 0.999 0.404 1.230 4.880 0.403 0.115 16 552382 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.396 0.292 2.683 0.371 0.383 17 552391 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.377 1.265 5.015 0.314 0.374 18 552392 1911 1979 69 0.998 0.285 -0.021 2.332 0.250 0.392 19 552401 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.354 1.449 8.579 0.333 0.360 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 552402 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.289 0.784 4.013 0.266 0.182 21 552411 1916 1979 64 0.997 0.385 0.452 3.580 0.418 0.260 22 552412 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.416 1.363 6.844 0.345 0.361 23 552421 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.366 0.315 2.877 0.381 0.190 24 552422 1916 1979 64 0.998 0.450 1.328 4.824 0.373 0.301 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 68 0.999 0.352 0.659 3.969 0.350 0.205 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.001 0.051 0.425 1.401 0.057 0.161 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.351 0.562 3.606 0.346 0.223 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.002 0.074 0.610 1.437 0.078 0.264 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.996 0.268 -0.021 2.332 0.250 -0.111 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 0.998 0.316 0.294 3.050 0.303 0.096 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.390 0.904 4.487 0.381 0.361 MAXIMUM VALUE 75 1.000 0.450 1.449 8.579 0.497 0.392 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 552311 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 552312 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 552321 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 552322 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 552331 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 552332 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 552341 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 552342 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 552351 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 552352 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 552361 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 552362 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 552371 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 552372 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 552381 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 552382 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 552391 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 552392 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 552401 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 552402 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 552411 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 552412 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 552421 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 552422 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 552311 1912 1979 68 0.997 0.342 -0.058 3.206 0.438 -0.217 2 552312 1905 1979 75 0.996 0.427 0.970 5.198 0.496 -0.196 3 552321 1909 1979 71 0.995 0.376 0.807 3.449 0.365 0.196 4 552322 1909 1979 71 0.996 0.315 0.839 4.006 0.325 0.123 5 552331 1911 1979 69 0.998 0.290 0.780 3.739 0.325 -0.097 6 552332 1909 1979 71 0.999 0.261 0.448 3.297 0.293 -0.072 7 552341 1911 1979 69 0.995 0.269 0.268 2.869 0.295 0.088 8 552342 1915 1979 65 0.997 0.284 0.687 3.966 0.301 0.048 9 552351 1910 1979 70 0.997 0.291 0.297 2.834 0.347 -0.049 10 552352 1913 1979 67 0.998 0.259 0.518 3.483 0.300 -0.043 11 552361 1910 1979 70 0.997 0.335 0.759 3.895 0.392 -0.046 12 552362 1914 1979 66 0.999 0.314 0.260 2.984 0.380 -0.052 13 552371 1911 1979 69 0.994 0.293 0.292 2.865 0.302 0.217 14 552372 1908 1979 72 0.998 0.318 0.481 3.876 0.374 0.037 15 552381 1916 1979 64 0.993 0.376 1.271 5.209 0.405 0.018 16 552382 1907 1979 73 0.995 0.348 -0.019 2.523 0.373 0.189 17 552391 1916 1979 64 0.997 0.355 1.245 4.630 0.313 0.237 18 552392 1911 1979 69 0.998 0.256 0.418 3.207 0.250 0.195 19 552401 1910 1979 70 0.995 0.329 1.321 7.884 0.334 0.281 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 552402 1920 1979 60 0.997 0.264 1.028 4.037 0.261 0.076 21 552411 1916 1979 64 0.995 0.341 0.132 2.850 0.419 0.027 22 552412 1912 1979 68 0.993 0.382 1.480 7.019 0.345 0.231 23 552421 1913 1979 67 0.997 0.353 0.423 3.378 0.382 0.116 24 552422 1916 1979 64 0.997 0.378 1.187 4.692 0.373 0.038 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 68 0.996 0.323 0.660 3.962 0.350 0.056 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.002 0.047 0.441 1.306 0.058 0.137 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 69 0.997 0.323 0.603 3.611 0.346 0.043 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.002 0.067 0.705 1.238 0.079 0.239 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.993 0.256 -0.058 2.523 0.250 -0.217 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 0.995 0.287 0.294 3.095 0.302 -0.047 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 70 0.998 0.354 0.999 4.333 0.381 0.192 MAXIMUM VALUE 75 0.999 0.427 1.480 7.884 0.496 0.281 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.186 0.157 0.009 0.296 2.761 -0.190 0.653 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.190 SERIES 552362 AND 552421 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.653 SERIES 552351 AND 552382 70 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 88.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.288 0.230 0.172 0.136 0.101 SDEV 0.217 0.247 0.261 0.253 0.260 SERR 0.013 0.015 0.016 0.015 0.016 EPS 0.907 0.877 0.833 0.791 0.729 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1905 1979 75 0.982 0.180 -0.156 3.165 0.216 -0.002 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.163 0.092 0.164 31 44 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.73 1.01 1.15 1.87 9.09 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.04 0.00 0.88 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.064 -0.035 -0.132 0.018 -0.144 0.080 0.012 0.170 -0.078 PACF -0.002 -0.064 -0.035 -0.138 0.012 -0.168 0.075 -0.033 0.188 -0.136 95% C.L. 0.231 0.231 0.232 0.232 0.236 0.236 0.241 0.242 0.242 0.249 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.022 -0.067 0.047 -0.097 0.002 -0.146 0.159 -0.123 0.120 -0.126 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.022 2 -0.023 -0.067 3 -0.020 -0.066 0.045 4 -0.016 -0.073 0.043 -0.100 5 -0.015 -0.073 0.043 -0.100 0.005 6 -0.014 -0.090 0.050 -0.112 0.002 -0.164 7 0.014 -0.090 0.069 -0.121 0.018 -0.162 0.172 8 0.043 -0.118 0.072 -0.141 0.030 -0.177 0.174 -0.171 9 0.076 -0.151 0.106 -0.147 0.057 -0.191 0.197 -0.179 0.193 10 0.127 -0.198 0.158 -0.197 0.072 -0.230 0.225 -0.219 0.213 -0.263 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 507.69 509.65 511.31 513.16 514.40 516.40 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 516.36 516.11 515.90 515.06 511.68 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 552311 0 0.053 2 552312 0 0.039 3 552321 0 0.038 4 552322 0 0.015 5 552331 0 0.010 6 552332 0 0.006 7 552341 0 0.008 8 552342 0 0.002 9 552351 0 0.002 10 552352 0 0.002 11 552361 0 0.002 12 552362 0 0.003 13 552371 0 0.049 14 552372 0 0.001 15 552381 0 0.000 16 552382 0 0.037 17 552391 0 0.059 18 552392 0 0.038 19 552401 0 0.080 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 552402 0 0.006 21 552411 0 0.001 22 552412 0 0.053 23 552421 0 0.014 24 552422 0 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.022 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.024 MEDIAN 0 0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.036 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.002 UPPER HINGE 0 0.039 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.080 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 552311 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.342 -0.058 3.206 0.436 -0.217 2 552312 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.427 0.970 5.198 0.494 -0.196 3 552321 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.376 0.807 3.449 0.363 0.196 4 552322 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.315 0.839 4.006 0.324 0.123 5 552331 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.290 0.780 3.739 0.324 -0.097 6 552332 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.261 0.448 3.297 0.293 -0.072 7 552341 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.269 0.268 2.869 0.294 0.088 8 552342 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.284 0.687 3.966 0.300 0.048 9 552351 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.291 0.297 2.834 0.346 -0.049 10 552352 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.259 0.518 3.483 0.300 -0.043 11 552361 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.335 0.759 3.895 0.391 -0.046 12 552362 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.314 0.260 2.984 0.380 -0.052 13 552371 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.293 0.292 2.865 0.300 0.217 14 552372 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.318 0.481 3.876 0.373 0.037 15 552381 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.376 1.271 5.209 0.402 0.018 16 552382 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.348 -0.019 2.523 0.371 0.189 17 552391 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.355 1.245 4.630 0.312 0.237 18 552392 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.256 0.418 3.207 0.249 0.195 19 552401 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.329 1.321 7.884 0.332 0.281 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 552402 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.264 1.028 4.037 0.261 0.076 21 552411 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.341 0.132 2.850 0.417 0.027 22 552412 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.382 1.480 7.019 0.342 0.231 23 552421 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.353 0.423 3.378 0.380 0.116 24 552422 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.378 1.187 4.692 0.372 0.038 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 68 1.000 0.323 0.660 3.962 0.348 0.056 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.000 0.047 0.441 1.306 0.057 0.137 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.323 0.603 3.611 0.344 0.043 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.000 0.067 0.705 1.238 0.080 0.239 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.256 -0.058 2.523 0.249 -0.217 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 1.000 0.287 0.294 3.095 0.300 -0.047 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.354 0.999 4.333 0.380 0.192 MAXIMUM VALUE 75 1.000 0.427 1.480 7.884 0.494 0.281 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.186 0.157 0.009 0.296 2.761 -0.190 0.653 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.190 SERIES 552362 AND 552421 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.653 SERIES 552351 AND 552382 70 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 88.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.288 0.230 0.172 0.136 0.101 SDEV 0.217 0.247 0.261 0.253 0.260 SERR 0.013 0.015 0.016 0.015 0.016 EPS 0.907 0.877 0.833 0.791 0.729 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1905 1979 75 0.986 0.180 -0.155 3.166 0.215 -0.001 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.163 0.092 0.164 31 44 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.74 1.01 1.15 1.88 9.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.04 0.00 0.88 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.064 -0.035 -0.132 0.018 -0.145 0.080 0.013 0.170 -0.078 PACF -0.001 -0.064 -0.035 -0.137 0.012 -0.168 0.075 -0.033 0.188 -0.136 95% C.L. 0.231 0.231 0.232 0.232 0.236 0.236 0.241 0.242 0.242 0.249 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1905 1979 75 0.986 0.180 -0.155 3.166 0.215 -0.001 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.064 -0.035 -0.132 0.018 -0.145 0.080 0.013 0.170 -0.078 PACF -0.001 -0.064 -0.035 -0.137 0.012 -0.168 0.075 -0.033 0.188 -0.136 95% C.L. 0.231 0.231 0.232 0.232 0.236 0.236 0.241 0.242 0.242 0.249 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES