RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT152X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT152X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 551 1 Wylewald BE, Fi.Vergl.Pr DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCAB - 551 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 570 4701-729 1904 1979 - 551 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 0.882 0.075 0.574 3.001 0.076 0.417 2 551312 1904 1979 76 0.929 0.086 -0.016 2.655 0.074 0.501 3 551321 1905 1979 75 0.866 0.084 -0.181 2.348 0.084 0.415 4 551322 1911 1979 69 0.867 0.090 0.667 3.861 0.100 0.288 5 551331 1907 1979 73 0.801 0.110 -0.290 2.953 0.126 0.352 6 551332 1911 1979 69 0.831 0.121 -0.669 3.170 0.134 0.370 7 551341 1917 1979 63 0.943 0.065 -0.168 3.254 0.070 0.259 8 551342 1911 1979 69 0.937 0.079 -1.040 4.354 0.078 0.336 9 551351 1913 1979 67 0.974 0.068 -1.061 3.603 0.054 0.557 10 551352 1911 1979 69 0.878 0.072 0.340 2.724 0.077 0.310 11 551361 1915 1979 65 0.840 0.067 -0.338 3.080 0.074 0.338 12 551362 1915 1979 65 0.893 0.072 -0.765 3.134 0.070 0.388 13 551371 1911 1979 69 0.849 0.101 -0.734 4.790 0.117 0.247 14 551372 1918 1979 62 0.803 0.097 -0.547 4.019 0.117 0.352 15 551381 1916 1979 64 0.864 0.097 0.024 2.468 0.110 0.351 16 551382 1916 1979 64 0.906 0.091 -0.265 2.414 0.096 0.375 17 551391 1912 1979 68 0.818 0.092 0.228 2.903 0.093 0.534 18 551392 1918 1979 62 0.795 0.085 0.500 2.952 0.095 0.457 19 551401 1917 1979 63 0.859 0.100 -0.102 2.375 0.101 0.512 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 0.830 0.107 -0.328 3.659 0.105 0.498 21 551411 1912 1979 68 0.823 0.088 -0.408 2.896 0.102 0.317 22 551412 1915 1979 65 0.831 0.090 -0.481 2.860 0.108 0.184 23 551421 1917 1979 63 0.916 0.071 -0.524 3.104 0.079 0.198 24 551422 1920 1979 60 0.880 0.129 -1.745 5.729 0.092 0.731 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1904 TO 1979 76 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 0.867 0.089 -0.305 3.263 0.093 0.387 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.049 0.017 0.559 0.813 0.020 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 0.865 0.089 -0.309 3.041 0.094 0.361 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.069 0.025 0.612 0.839 0.030 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.795 0.065 -1.745 2.348 0.054 0.184 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.831 0.073 -0.608 2.792 0.077 0.313 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 0.900 0.098 0.004 3.631 0.106 0.477 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 0.974 0.129 0.667 5.729 0.134 0.731 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.513 0.152 0.009 -0.364 2.913 0.034 0.857 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.034 SERIES 551321 AND 551422 60 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.857 SERIES 551391 AND 551392 62 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.614 0.728 0.683 0.443 0.292 SDEV 0.147 0.151 0.123 0.216 0.267 SERR 0.009 0.009 0.007 0.013 0.016 EPS 0.974 0.985 0.981 0.950 0.908 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 0.863 0.066 0.195 2.845 0.067 0.433 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.193 -0.078 0.141 18 58 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.10 0.32 1.01 1.03 1.35 3.02 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 66. 6. 60. 64. 69. 76. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.427 0.280 0.371 0.325 0.234 0.127 0.058 0.055 0.077 0.000 PACF 0.427 0.119 0.266 0.104 0.021 -0.097 -0.107 -0.033 0.055 -0.025 95% C.L. 0.229 0.268 0.283 0.308 0.325 0.334 0.336 0.337 0.337 0.338 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.195 0.428 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00056845 0.86167699 2 551312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00148353 0.87209475 3 551321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00199602 0.78975135 4 551322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00084618 0.89671785 5 551331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00042299 0.78571916 6 551332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00304348 0.72463769 7 551341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00050451 0.92718893 8 551342 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00060248 0.91630435 9 551351 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00182297 0.91160107 10 551352 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00056412 0.85837168 11 551361 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063374 0.86060578 12 551362 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00088942 0.92258173 13 551371 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00112715 0.88858056 14 551372 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00185213 0.86172926 15 551381 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00072871 0.84022319 16 551382 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00211699 0.83697915 17 551391 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00054205 0.79894644 18 551392 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00099292 0.82595456 19 551401 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00125816 0.81862777 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551402 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000063 0.83017248 21 551411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00163874 0.76611060 22 551412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00158523 0.77891827 23 551421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001920 0.91696364 24 551422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00329008 0.98051411 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.084 0.599 3.032 0.075 0.395 2 551312 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.086 0.254 2.878 0.073 0.398 3 551321 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.084 0.010 2.849 0.083 0.208 4 551322 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.102 0.708 3.916 0.099 0.245 5 551331 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.136 -0.348 3.068 0.124 0.343 6 551332 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.128 -0.529 3.260 0.132 0.188 7 551341 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.068 -0.218 3.546 0.069 0.246 8 551342 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.083 -0.948 4.073 0.077 0.330 9 551351 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.061 -0.436 2.761 0.053 0.420 10 551352 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.081 0.432 2.654 0.076 0.291 11 551361 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.079 -0.441 3.365 0.073 0.300 12 551362 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.078 -0.645 2.948 0.069 0.354 13 551371 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.116 -0.781 4.505 0.115 0.188 14 551372 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.114 -0.304 3.919 0.115 0.290 15 551381 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.111 0.011 2.543 0.108 0.327 16 551382 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.091 -0.120 2.431 0.095 0.238 17 551391 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.112 0.250 2.883 0.092 0.520 18 551392 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.104 0.543 3.068 0.093 0.423 19 551401 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.113 0.014 2.233 0.099 0.476 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.128 -0.328 3.659 0.104 0.491 21 551411 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.100 -0.286 2.733 0.101 0.214 22 551412 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.103 -0.313 2.901 0.106 0.095 23 551421 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.078 -0.528 3.112 0.078 0.196 24 551422 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.137 -1.258 4.775 0.091 0.643 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 1.000 0.099 -0.194 3.213 0.092 0.326 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.000 0.021 0.492 0.644 0.020 0.128 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 1.000 0.101 -0.295 3.050 0.092 0.314 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.000 0.032 0.616 0.798 0.029 0.183 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.061 -1.258 2.233 0.053 0.095 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.082 -0.485 2.805 0.076 0.226 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.114 0.132 3.603 0.105 0.409 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.137 0.708 4.775 0.132 0.643 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551311 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 551312 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 551321 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 551322 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 551331 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 551332 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 551341 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 551342 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 551351 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 551352 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 551361 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 551362 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 551371 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 551372 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 551381 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 551382 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 551391 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 551392 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 551401 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551402 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 551411 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 551412 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 551421 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 551422 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.074 0.070 2.345 0.075 0.223 2 551312 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.082 -0.054 2.807 0.073 0.337 3 551321 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.082 -0.075 2.884 0.083 0.176 4 551322 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.093 0.460 3.537 0.099 0.114 5 551331 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.127 -0.482 2.901 0.124 0.236 6 551332 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.121 -0.650 3.192 0.131 0.106 7 551341 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.062 -0.487 3.464 0.069 0.078 8 551342 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.073 -0.705 3.279 0.077 0.139 9 551351 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.056 -0.334 2.801 0.053 0.307 10 551352 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.073 0.494 2.874 0.076 0.114 11 551361 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.071 -0.499 3.388 0.073 0.151 12 551362 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.075 -0.672 2.950 0.069 0.306 13 551371 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.105 -0.878 4.351 0.115 0.035 14 551372 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.100 -0.572 4.854 0.115 0.116 15 551381 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.096 -0.271 2.244 0.108 0.139 16 551382 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.084 -0.467 2.467 0.095 0.141 17 551391 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.081 -0.294 3.526 0.091 0.098 18 551392 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.084 -0.129 2.795 0.093 0.124 19 551401 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.094 -0.308 2.614 0.099 0.240 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 0.999 0.105 -0.656 3.454 0.103 0.208 21 551411 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.097 -0.367 2.644 0.101 0.173 22 551412 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.096 -0.456 3.185 0.105 0.000 23 551421 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.074 -0.756 3.510 0.078 0.118 24 551422 1920 1979 60 0.999 0.119 -1.122 5.846 0.091 0.460 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 1.000 0.088 -0.384 3.246 0.091 0.172 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.000 0.018 0.380 0.812 0.019 0.103 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 1.000 0.084 -0.461 3.068 0.092 0.140 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.000 0.024 0.453 0.689 0.028 0.115 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.999 0.056 -1.122 2.244 0.053 0.000 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.074 -0.653 2.798 0.076 0.114 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.099 -0.200 3.487 0.104 0.229 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.127 0.494 5.846 0.131 0.460 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.516 0.166 0.010 -0.894 4.031 -0.129 0.861 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.129 SERIES 551372 AND 551422 60 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.861 SERIES 551381 AND 551382 64 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.670 0.704 0.673 0.467 0.293 SDEV 0.127 0.130 0.131 0.214 0.278 SERR 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.013 0.017 EPS 0.980 0.983 0.980 0.955 0.909 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 1.003 0.062 -0.259 2.637 0.064 0.180 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.134 -0.048 0.105 33 43 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.40 1.00 1.04 1.45 3.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.178 -0.019 0.078 0.093 -0.001 -0.135 -0.194 -0.139 -0.051 -0.131 PACF 0.178 -0.052 0.094 0.062 -0.024 -0.136 -0.169 -0.102 -0.007 -0.090 95% C.L. 0.229 0.237 0.237 0.238 0.240 0.240 0.244 0.252 0.256 0.256 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.034 0.178 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.150 -0.079 0.074 0.086 0.027 -0.128 -0.129 -0.060 -0.019 -0.154 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.150 2 0.166 -0.104 3 0.177 -0.121 0.106 4 0.171 -0.115 0.097 0.050 5 0.170 -0.117 0.099 0.046 0.022 6 0.173 -0.111 0.113 0.030 0.045 -0.136 7 0.160 -0.107 0.116 0.042 0.034 -0.119 -0.098 8 0.154 -0.114 0.118 0.044 0.041 -0.126 -0.088 -0.061 9 0.154 -0.114 0.118 0.044 0.041 -0.125 -0.088 -0.061 -0.003 10 0.153 -0.122 0.106 0.027 0.047 -0.119 -0.072 -0.076 0.018 -0.135 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 384.16 384.43 385.61 386.76 388.56 390.53 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 391.11 392.38 394.09 396.09 396.69 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 551311 0 0.050 2 551312 0 0.114 3 551321 0 0.032 4 551322 0 0.013 5 551331 0 0.056 6 551332 0 0.012 7 551341 0 0.006 8 551342 0 0.020 9 551351 0 0.095 10 551352 0 0.014 11 551361 0 0.023 12 551362 0 0.103 13 551371 0 0.001 14 551372 0 0.014 15 551381 0 0.019 16 551382 0 0.020 17 551391 0 0.010 18 551392 0 0.015 19 551401 0 0.058 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 551402 0 0.045 21 551411 0 0.030 22 551412 0 0.000 23 551421 0 0.014 24 551422 0 0.239 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.042 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.053 MEDIAN 0 0.020 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.039 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.014 UPPER HINGE 0 0.053 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.239 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.074 0.070 2.345 0.075 0.223 2 551312 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.082 -0.054 2.807 0.073 0.337 3 551321 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.082 -0.074 2.884 0.083 0.176 4 551322 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.093 0.460 3.537 0.099 0.114 5 551331 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.127 -0.482 2.901 0.124 0.236 6 551332 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.121 -0.650 3.192 0.131 0.106 7 551341 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.062 -0.487 3.464 0.069 0.078 8 551342 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.073 -0.705 3.279 0.076 0.139 9 551351 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.056 -0.334 2.801 0.053 0.307 10 551352 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.073 0.494 2.874 0.076 0.114 11 551361 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.071 -0.499 3.388 0.073 0.151 12 551362 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.075 -0.672 2.950 0.069 0.306 13 551371 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.105 -0.878 4.351 0.115 0.035 14 551372 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.100 -0.572 4.854 0.115 0.116 15 551381 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.096 -0.271 2.244 0.108 0.139 16 551382 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.084 -0.467 2.467 0.095 0.141 17 551391 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.081 -0.294 3.526 0.091 0.098 18 551392 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.084 -0.129 2.795 0.093 0.124 19 551401 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.094 -0.308 2.614 0.099 0.240 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.105 -0.656 3.454 0.103 0.208 21 551411 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.097 -0.367 2.644 0.101 0.173 22 551412 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.096 -0.456 3.186 0.105 0.000 23 551421 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.074 -0.756 3.510 0.078 0.118 24 551422 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.119 -1.122 5.846 0.091 0.460 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 1.000 0.088 -0.384 3.246 0.091 0.172 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.000 0.018 0.380 0.812 0.019 0.103 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 1.000 0.084 -0.461 3.068 0.092 0.140 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.000 0.024 0.453 0.689 0.028 0.115 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.056 -1.122 2.244 0.053 0.000 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.074 -0.653 2.798 0.076 0.114 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.099 -0.200 3.487 0.104 0.229 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.127 0.494 5.846 0.131 0.460 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.516 0.166 0.010 -0.894 4.031 -0.129 0.861 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.129 SERIES 551372 AND 551422 60 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.861 SERIES 551381 AND 551382 64 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.670 0.704 0.673 0.467 0.293 SDEV 0.127 0.130 0.131 0.214 0.278 SERR 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.013 0.017 EPS 0.980 0.983 0.980 0.955 0.909 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 1.003 0.062 -0.259 2.636 0.064 0.180 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.134 -0.048 0.105 33 43 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.40 1.00 1.05 1.45 3.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.178 -0.019 0.078 0.093 -0.001 -0.135 -0.194 -0.138 -0.051 -0.131 PACF 0.178 -0.052 0.094 0.062 -0.024 -0.136 -0.169 -0.102 -0.007 -0.090 95% C.L. 0.229 0.237 0.237 0.238 0.240 0.240 0.244 0.252 0.256 0.256 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.034 0.178 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 1.003 0.062 -0.259 2.636 0.064 0.180 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.178 -0.019 0.078 0.093 -0.001 -0.135 -0.194 -0.138 -0.051 -0.131 PACF 0.178 -0.052 0.094 0.062 -0.024 -0.136 -0.169 -0.102 -0.007 -0.090 95% C.L. 0.229 0.237 0.237 0.238 0.240 0.240 0.244 0.252 0.256 0.256 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.034 0.178 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.24 MINUTES