RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT152E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT152E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 551 1 Wylewald BE, Fi.Vergl.Pr WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 551 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 570 4701-729 1904 1979 - 551 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 2.100 0.835 0.349 2.433 0.275 0.646 2 551312 1904 1979 76 1.826 0.652 0.523 2.664 0.203 0.671 3 551321 1905 1979 75 1.338 0.914 1.774 6.070 0.251 0.829 4 551322 1911 1979 69 1.465 0.706 0.579 2.553 0.245 0.691 5 551331 1907 1979 73 2.124 1.099 0.898 3.148 0.362 0.493 6 551332 1911 1979 69 2.089 1.287 1.290 4.245 0.282 0.778 7 551341 1917 1979 63 1.727 0.857 1.726 5.610 0.291 0.613 8 551342 1911 1979 69 2.177 1.666 2.439 8.290 0.243 0.868 9 551351 1913 1979 67 1.071 1.264 2.881 9.454 0.241 0.873 10 551352 1911 1979 69 2.116 1.166 1.654 6.001 0.269 0.798 11 551361 1915 1979 65 1.488 0.927 2.333 8.544 0.314 0.682 12 551362 1915 1979 65 1.706 0.965 2.169 8.323 0.311 0.682 13 551371 1911 1979 69 1.294 1.160 1.416 3.841 0.438 0.876 14 551372 1918 1979 62 2.156 1.490 1.236 3.928 0.419 0.533 15 551381 1916 1979 64 3.012 0.948 0.172 2.403 0.234 0.617 16 551382 1916 1979 64 2.166 1.211 0.745 2.977 0.303 0.741 17 551391 1912 1979 68 1.748 1.090 1.001 2.856 0.239 0.895 18 551392 1918 1979 62 2.149 1.017 0.999 3.538 0.238 0.720 19 551401 1917 1979 63 2.429 1.544 1.227 3.532 0.313 0.787 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 2.329 1.534 1.194 3.618 0.304 0.855 21 551411 1912 1979 68 1.821 0.853 0.745 3.306 0.266 0.739 22 551412 1915 1979 65 1.954 0.921 0.680 2.749 0.251 0.745 23 551421 1917 1979 63 2.168 1.093 0.943 3.130 0.269 0.766 24 551422 1920 1979 60 1.460 0.935 0.440 2.201 0.303 0.831 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1904 TO 1979 76 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 1.913 1.089 1.225 4.392 0.286 0.739 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.430 0.268 0.709 2.220 0.056 0.109 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 2.021 1.054 1.097 3.535 0.272 0.743 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.564 0.320 0.978 3.003 0.063 0.154 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.071 0.652 0.172 2.201 0.203 0.493 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.597 0.917 0.712 2.803 0.244 0.676 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 2.161 1.238 1.690 5.806 0.307 0.830 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 3.012 1.666 2.881 9.454 0.438 0.895 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.549 0.159 0.010 -0.364 2.811 0.033 0.922 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.033 SERIES 551322 AND 551422 60 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.922 SERIES 551351 AND 551361 65 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.299 0.581 0.296 0.143 0.200 SDEV 0.254 0.252 0.262 0.292 0.279 SERR 0.015 0.015 0.016 0.018 0.017 EPS 0.911 0.971 0.910 0.800 0.857 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 1.999 0.888 0.633 2.197 0.156 0.926 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.578 0.233 0.307 30 46 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.61 1.01 1.11 1.72 5.40 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 66. 6. 60. 64. 69. 76. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.913 0.871 0.816 0.768 0.715 0.685 0.643 0.607 0.580 0.533 PACF 0.913 0.221 -0.038 -0.002 -0.046 0.102 -0.027 -0.013 0.053 -0.122 95% C.L. 0.229 0.375 0.469 0.539 0.594 0.637 0.675 0.706 0.733 0.757 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.855 0.666 0.275 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551311 1 2.10984540 0.04419272 0.00000000 1.46346486 2 551312 1 1.59171081 0.03365611 0.00000000 1.26105964 3 551321 1 3.27302384 0.06000022 0.00000000 0.63971698 4 551322 1 1.88711011 0.11057159 0.00000000 1.23126745 5 551331 1 2.03247619 0.10288051 0.00000000 1.86730671 6 551332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04498173 3.66305637 7 551341 1 3.29945183 0.14091147 0.00000000 1.38062119 8 551342 1 7.84727478 0.14222445 0.00000000 1.43244290 9 551351 1 6.71925020 0.16355555 0.00000000 0.50711364 10 551352 1 4.10563707 0.08644532 0.00000000 1.45907962 11 551361 1 4.52474451 0.16887373 0.00000000 1.11008680 12 551362 1 5.80675840 0.30664477 0.00000000 1.45675159 13 551371 1 4.32414389 0.06703651 0.00000000 0.39906660 14 551372 1 3.81284451 0.05771951 0.00000000 1.14955127 15 551381 1 2.16879797 0.03692093 0.00000000 2.19587135 16 551382 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05161218 3.84302092 17 551391 1 3.04001641 0.03760372 0.00000000 0.67219752 18 551392 1 1.54720473 0.05095438 0.00000000 1.69144738 19 551401 1 4.97177839 0.06383765 0.00000000 1.25350130 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551402 1 5.07796001 0.07370514 0.00000000 1.33114052 21 551411 1 2.64251375 0.03052630 0.00000000 0.72465324 22 551412 1 3.40230227 0.02518216 0.00000000 0.30081540 23 551421 1 3.25932336 0.04773222 0.00000000 1.16206145 24 551422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04688274 2.89009047 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.345 1.050 5.310 0.271 0.422 2 551312 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.306 1.227 5.088 0.199 0.479 3 551321 1905 1979 75 1.001 0.343 1.132 5.757 0.244 0.484 4 551322 1911 1979 69 0.999 0.441 1.099 4.691 0.237 0.654 5 551331 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.502 1.326 4.856 0.355 0.461 6 551332 1911 1979 69 1.046 0.518 1.505 5.375 0.277 0.642 7 551341 1917 1979 63 0.999 0.333 0.957 3.550 0.281 0.386 8 551342 1911 1979 69 1.002 0.372 1.191 4.619 0.234 0.560 9 551351 1913 1979 67 0.996 0.362 0.803 3.899 0.236 0.704 10 551352 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.335 0.149 2.430 0.263 0.525 11 551361 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.349 1.144 5.094 0.304 0.156 12 551362 1915 1979 65 1.001 0.404 1.236 5.469 0.302 0.590 13 551371 1911 1979 69 0.999 0.516 1.337 5.088 0.431 0.429 14 551372 1918 1979 62 1.002 0.701 4.009 21.574 0.415 0.117 15 551381 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.280 0.809 4.136 0.230 0.414 16 551382 1916 1979 64 1.019 0.401 1.175 4.629 0.294 0.459 17 551391 1912 1979 68 1.004 0.474 1.020 3.121 0.237 0.793 18 551392 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.456 1.513 5.691 0.233 0.627 19 551401 1917 1979 63 1.002 0.412 1.006 3.785 0.306 0.519 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 1.001 0.482 1.777 6.634 0.297 0.643 21 551411 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.336 0.692 3.045 0.262 0.485 22 551412 1915 1979 65 0.999 0.289 1.520 7.382 0.246 0.430 23 551421 1917 1979 63 1.001 0.349 0.696 2.845 0.263 0.407 24 551422 1920 1979 60 1.139 0.980 5.528 32.529 0.323 0.467 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 1.009 0.429 1.413 6.525 0.281 0.494 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.029 0.151 1.109 6.630 0.056 0.152 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 1.000 0.387 1.159 4.972 0.267 0.481 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.002 0.138 0.439 1.738 0.066 0.183 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.996 0.280 0.149 2.430 0.199 0.117 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.339 0.982 3.842 0.237 0.426 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 1.002 0.478 1.421 5.580 0.303 0.608 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 1.139 0.980 5.528 32.529 0.431 0.793 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551311 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 551312 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 551321 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 551322 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 551331 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 551332 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 551341 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 551342 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 551351 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 551352 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 551361 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 551362 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 551371 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 551372 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 551381 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 551382 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 551391 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 551392 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 551401 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551402 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 551411 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 551412 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 551421 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 551422 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 0.996 0.325 1.021 5.669 0.270 0.382 2 551312 1904 1979 76 0.998 0.299 1.266 5.177 0.199 0.466 3 551321 1905 1979 75 0.993 0.298 0.999 4.626 0.243 0.363 4 551322 1911 1979 69 0.985 0.356 0.823 4.277 0.233 0.553 5 551331 1907 1979 73 0.982 0.412 1.201 4.375 0.355 0.342 6 551332 1911 1979 69 0.979 0.312 1.143 5.040 0.278 0.349 7 551341 1917 1979 63 0.998 0.309 0.746 3.014 0.280 0.344 8 551342 1911 1979 69 0.995 0.294 0.512 2.981 0.232 0.416 9 551351 1913 1979 67 0.995 0.282 -0.352 3.162 0.235 0.542 10 551352 1911 1979 69 0.995 0.310 0.059 2.449 0.261 0.443 11 551361 1915 1979 65 0.996 0.337 1.575 7.238 0.303 0.042 12 551362 1915 1979 65 0.995 0.327 0.726 3.485 0.299 0.338 13 551371 1911 1979 69 0.996 0.489 1.072 4.463 0.431 0.384 14 551372 1918 1979 62 0.987 0.607 3.715 20.189 0.415 0.062 15 551381 1916 1979 64 0.997 0.247 0.460 3.065 0.230 0.273 16 551382 1916 1979 64 0.993 0.349 0.721 3.104 0.294 0.406 17 551391 1912 1979 68 0.979 0.344 1.043 3.662 0.234 0.695 18 551392 1918 1979 62 0.978 0.372 1.493 5.673 0.230 0.515 19 551401 1917 1979 63 0.990 0.359 1.092 3.895 0.304 0.432 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 0.993 0.452 1.712 6.467 0.298 0.624 21 551411 1912 1979 68 0.997 0.324 0.614 2.865 0.262 0.447 22 551412 1915 1979 65 0.996 0.260 1.115 5.975 0.246 0.320 23 551421 1917 1979 63 0.993 0.313 0.843 3.026 0.262 0.339 24 551422 1920 1979 60 0.993 0.389 0.713 5.535 0.315 0.414 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 0.992 0.349 1.013 4.975 0.280 0.396 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.006 0.079 0.733 3.491 0.057 0.146 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 0.994 0.326 1.010 4.326 0.266 0.395 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.007 0.061 0.455 2.518 0.066 0.115 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.978 0.247 -0.352 2.449 0.199 0.042 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.989 0.304 0.717 3.084 0.234 0.341 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 0.996 0.365 1.172 5.602 0.301 0.456 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 0.998 0.607 3.715 20.189 0.431 0.695 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.244 0.165 0.010 -0.114 2.910 -0.252 0.721 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.252 SERIES 551371 AND 551391 68 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.721 SERIES 551311 AND 551312 70 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.299 0.396 0.292 0.174 0.203 SDEV 0.259 0.264 0.266 0.268 0.268 SERR 0.016 0.016 0.016 0.016 0.016 EPS 0.911 0.940 0.908 0.835 0.860 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 0.974 0.169 0.143 2.941 0.150 0.356 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.502 0.291 -0.022 32 44 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.67 1.01 1.10 1.77 4.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.352 0.258 0.153 0.000 -0.074 -0.068 -0.178 -0.141 -0.027 -0.114 PACF 0.352 0.154 0.025 -0.107 -0.090 -0.006 -0.130 -0.033 0.093 -0.096 95% C.L. 0.229 0.256 0.270 0.274 0.274 0.275 0.276 0.282 0.286 0.286 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.146 0.353 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.333 0.204 0.140 -0.015 -0.083 -0.056 -0.201 -0.078 0.006 -0.083 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.333 2 0.298 0.105 3 0.293 0.090 0.051 4 0.298 0.099 0.081 -0.104 5 0.289 0.106 0.090 -0.078 -0.086 6 0.290 0.106 0.089 -0.078 -0.087 0.002 7 0.290 0.091 0.076 -0.063 -0.068 0.051 -0.170 8 0.299 0.088 0.080 -0.059 -0.073 0.046 -0.186 0.055 9 0.295 0.102 0.077 -0.054 -0.068 0.041 -0.193 0.034 0.071 10 0.302 0.105 0.060 -0.051 -0.074 0.036 -0.186 0.043 0.097 -0.088 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 540.18 533.24 534.40 536.20 537.38 538.82 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 540.82 540.58 542.35 543.97 545.38 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.333 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 11.10 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 112.49 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.333 0.111 0.037 0.012 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 551311 1 0.148 0.384 2 551312 1 0.248 0.466 3 551321 1 0.144 0.364 4 551322 1 0.309 0.555 5 551331 1 0.119 0.344 6 551332 1 0.128 0.354 7 551341 1 0.160 0.344 8 551342 1 0.184 0.427 9 551351 1 0.305 0.542 10 551352 1 0.210 0.447 11 551361 1 0.012 0.042 12 551362 1 0.131 0.359 13 551371 1 0.150 0.387 14 551372 1 0.005 0.063 15 551381 1 0.115 0.275 16 551382 1 0.171 0.408 17 551391 1 0.495 0.700 18 551392 1 0.266 0.515 19 551401 1 0.188 0.433 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 551402 1 0.442 0.626 21 551411 1 0.218 0.448 22 551412 1 0.120 0.324 23 551421 1 0.125 0.345 24 551422 1 0.241 0.469 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.193 0.401 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.114 0.146 MEDIAN 1 0.166 0.398 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.118 0.123 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.005 0.042 LOWER HINGE 1 0.126 0.344 UPPER HINGE 1 0.244 0.468 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.495 0.700 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.300 1.253 6.016 0.305 0.004 2 551312 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.265 1.413 5.615 0.260 -0.092 3 551321 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.278 1.233 5.079 0.275 0.041 4 551322 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.296 0.393 3.872 0.307 -0.012 5 551331 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.387 1.517 5.654 0.390 0.000 6 551332 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.291 1.493 6.257 0.305 -0.021 7 551341 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.290 0.567 2.940 0.322 0.073 8 551342 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.265 0.501 3.311 0.270 0.019 9 551351 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.237 0.081 2.675 0.290 -0.068 10 551352 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.278 0.356 2.464 0.313 -0.046 11 551361 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.337 1.619 7.387 0.309 -0.004 12 551362 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.305 0.582 3.124 0.355 0.006 13 551371 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.451 0.937 4.233 0.488 0.006 14 551372 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.606 3.836 21.126 0.422 -0.001 15 551381 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.237 0.622 3.256 0.258 0.055 16 551382 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.319 1.194 4.097 0.348 -0.028 17 551391 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.246 0.009 2.417 0.281 0.075 18 551392 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.319 0.856 6.892 0.299 0.014 19 551401 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.323 0.662 3.355 0.373 0.017 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.352 0.713 4.770 0.377 0.178 21 551411 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.290 0.795 3.289 0.325 -0.067 22 551412 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.246 0.933 5.110 0.286 -0.043 23 551421 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.293 0.615 2.962 0.298 0.033 24 551422 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.343 1.036 5.065 0.375 -0.012 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 1.000 0.315 0.967 5.040 0.326 0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.000 0.079 0.752 3.715 0.055 0.056 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 1.000 0.295 0.825 4.165 0.308 0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.000 0.059 0.668 2.445 0.076 0.051 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.237 0.009 2.417 0.258 -0.092 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.271 0.574 3.190 0.288 -0.025 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.330 1.243 5.635 0.364 0.026 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.606 3.836 21.126 0.488 0.178 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.249 0.147 0.009 -0.094 3.096 -0.204 0.667 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.204 SERIES 551311 AND 551391 68 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.667 SERIES 551311 AND 551312 70 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.274 0.354 0.237 0.218 0.269 SDEV 0.215 0.209 0.234 0.223 0.231 SERR 0.013 0.013 0.014 0.013 0.014 EPS 0.901 0.929 0.882 0.870 0.898 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 0.982 0.154 0.309 3.044 0.181 -0.095 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.446 0.247 -0.015 35 41 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.87 1.03 1.08 1.96 5.48 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.08 0.00 0.89 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.094 0.083 0.088 -0.036 -0.061 0.021 -0.128 -0.091 0.081 -0.079 PACF -0.094 0.075 0.103 -0.026 -0.085 0.004 -0.110 -0.107 0.081 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.229 0.231 0.233 0.235 0.235 0.236 0.236 0.240 0.241 0.243 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.007 0.084 0.094 -0.034 -0.064 0.004 -0.137 -0.098 0.067 -0.073 PACF 0.007 0.084 0.093 -0.042 -0.081 0.002 -0.120 -0.089 0.087 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.229 0.229 0.231 0.233 0.233 0.234 0.234 0.238 0.240 0.241 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.007 0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 0.981 0.165 0.136 2.751 0.145 0.374 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.369 0.214 0.138 -0.003 -0.068 -0.066 -0.163 -0.131 -0.005 -0.074 PACF 0.369 0.090 0.039 -0.093 -0.070 -0.016 -0.126 -0.024 0.097 -0.077 95% C.L. 0.229 0.259 0.268 0.272 0.272 0.272 0.273 0.278 0.282 0.282 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.144 0.370 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.18 MINUTES