RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT136N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT136N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 580 1 Chable d.trois besses VS DENSITY_MINIMUM PCAB - 580 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1520 4607-711 1813 1979 - 580 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 580031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 580042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1896 1900 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 580051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1975 1979 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 580052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1970 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 580081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1937 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 580112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1967 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 580122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1960 1965 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 580142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1825 1829 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 580011 1831 1979 149 0.308 0.034 -0.015 3.035 0.069 0.689 2 580012 1840 1979 140 0.306 0.032 -0.391 3.335 0.073 0.627 3 580021 1923 1979 57 0.247 0.020 1.142 4.433 0.055 0.537 4 580022 1920 1979 60 0.238 0.018 1.043 4.999 0.058 0.495 5 580031 1912 1979 68 0.265 0.018 0.351 3.518 0.057 0.359 6 580032 1917 1979 63 0.271 0.023 -0.517 3.185 0.051 0.715 7 580041 1870 1979 110 0.272 0.022 0.207 2.697 0.052 0.686 8 580042 1876 1979 104 0.272 0.018 -0.218 3.488 0.058 0.352 9 580051 1845 1979 135 0.288 0.036 0.751 4.363 0.058 0.738 10 580052 1845 1979 135 0.321 0.047 2.222 10.922 0.057 0.802 11 580061 1850 1979 130 0.314 0.037 -0.093 2.991 0.060 0.715 12 580062 1888 1979 92 0.307 0.044 1.447 5.704 0.069 0.710 13 580071 1813 1979 167 0.303 0.041 1.337 5.444 0.063 0.816 14 580072 1816 1979 164 0.294 0.033 0.649 4.371 0.066 0.711 15 580081 1820 1979 160 0.335 0.050 0.963 5.270 0.105 0.441 16 580082 1827 1979 153 0.337 0.054 1.766 11.784 0.117 0.359 17 580091 1846 1979 134 0.294 0.047 1.449 6.137 0.105 0.523 18 580092 1831 1979 149 0.316 0.065 0.976 4.163 0.091 0.771 19 580101 1833 1979 147 0.252 0.033 0.580 3.844 0.103 0.452 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 580102 1830 1979 150 0.265 0.034 0.492 2.955 0.098 0.494 21 580111 1830 1979 150 0.258 0.037 0.741 4.116 0.102 0.562 22 580112 1849 1979 131 0.278 0.044 0.696 2.876 0.093 0.705 23 580121 1832 1979 148 0.359 0.051 0.953 4.667 0.097 0.528 24 580122 1826 1979 154 0.308 0.036 1.255 4.754 0.096 0.283 25 580131 1846 1979 134 0.321 0.040 0.623 3.718 0.108 0.358 26 580132 1837 1979 143 0.310 0.042 0.565 3.964 0.111 0.423 27 580141 1834 1979 146 0.287 0.033 -0.190 2.836 0.063 0.748 28 580142 1825 1979 155 0.283 0.024 -0.230 3.304 0.060 0.591 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1813 TO 1979 167 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 0.293 0.036 0.663 4.531 0.078 0.578 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.029 0.012 0.681 2.142 0.022 0.158 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 0.294 0.036 0.673 4.040 0.069 0.577 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.041 0.016 0.996 1.632 0.042 0.267 MINIMUM VALUE 57 0.238 0.018 -0.517 2.697 0.051 0.283 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 118 0.271 0.028 0.096 3.244 0.058 0.446 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 149 0.312 0.044 1.093 4.876 0.100 0.713 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 0.359 0.065 2.222 11.784 0.117 0.816 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.294 0.233 0.012 -0.318 2.691 -0.487 0.857 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.487 SERIES 580032 AND 580052 63 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.857 SERIES 580081 AND 580082 153 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 136. 231. 276. 351. RBAR 0.547 0.395 0.339 0.269 SDEV 0.201 0.244 0.278 0.248 SERR 0.017 0.016 0.017 0.013 EPS 0.963 0.939 0.931 0.911 NSS 21.8 23.7 26.2 27.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1979 167 0.290 0.025 0.563 3.474 0.055 0.638 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.700 0.353 -0.065 48 119 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.46 1.01 1.10 1.56 3.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 142. 30. 57. 120. 150. 167. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.635 0.552 0.527 0.537 0.523 0.562 0.530 0.565 0.484 0.459 PACF 0.635 0.250 0.189 0.190 0.122 0.200 0.069 0.170 -0.051 -0.013 95% C.L. 0.155 0.208 0.240 0.267 0.291 0.313 0.336 0.356 0.377 0.391 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.529 0.329 0.084 0.077 0.119 0.055 0.220 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 580011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027002 0.28726557 2 580012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00052037 0.26895684 3 580021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023593 0.24017544 4 580022 1 0.08960264 0.40106404 0.00000000 0.23464005 5 580031 1 0.06644558 0.58013314 0.00000000 0.26403055 6 580032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00065956 0.24968766 7 580041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029872 0.25578481 8 580042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008522 0.27628726 9 580051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029905 0.26521471 10 580052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005972 0.31448743 11 580061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00051887 0.34783185 12 580062 1 0.16805068 0.07732090 0.00000000 0.28457913 13 580071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044732 0.26535892 14 580072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038248 0.26277494 15 580081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039976 0.30309376 16 580082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016304 0.32424322 17 580091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014773 0.30355403 18 580092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029447 0.33792400 19 580101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018451 0.26569471 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 580102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000064 0.26484832 21 580111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002745 0.25579417 22 580112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007646 0.28235170 23 580121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017419 0.34560397 24 580122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002857 0.30902418 25 580131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002708 0.31951520 26 580132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030611 0.28768048 27 580141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031758 0.26350686 28 580142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021903 0.26548141 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 580011 1831 1979 149 1.000 0.104 0.433 2.994 0.069 0.648 2 580012 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.081 -0.009 3.419 0.073 0.346 3 580021 1923 1979 57 1.000 0.078 1.256 4.556 0.055 0.498 4 580022 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.061 0.220 3.820 0.058 0.310 5 580031 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.061 -0.066 2.455 0.056 0.279 6 580032 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.073 -0.040 3.515 0.051 0.605 7 580041 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.074 0.203 3.017 0.052 0.575 8 580042 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.066 -0.318 3.417 0.057 0.336 9 580051 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.121 0.451 5.319 0.058 0.702 10 580052 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.148 2.037 10.283 0.057 0.806 11 580061 1850 1979 130 1.000 0.099 0.308 3.791 0.060 0.601 12 580062 1888 1979 92 1.000 0.080 0.243 3.859 0.067 0.324 13 580071 1813 1979 167 1.000 0.110 0.850 4.537 0.063 0.724 14 580072 1816 1979 164 1.000 0.091 0.707 4.114 0.066 0.568 15 580081 1820 1979 160 1.000 0.137 1.138 5.887 0.106 0.333 16 580082 1827 1979 153 1.000 0.158 1.764 11.692 0.116 0.338 17 580091 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.159 1.346 6.050 0.104 0.513 18 580092 1831 1979 149 1.000 0.199 0.905 4.112 0.091 0.755 19 580101 1833 1979 147 1.000 0.127 0.501 3.764 0.103 0.412 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 580102 1830 1979 150 1.000 0.127 0.492 2.956 0.098 0.491 21 580111 1830 1979 150 1.000 0.144 0.777 4.165 0.101 0.560 22 580112 1849 1979 131 1.000 0.154 0.711 3.000 0.091 0.690 23 580121 1832 1979 148 1.000 0.142 1.054 4.705 0.096 0.523 24 580122 1826 1979 154 1.000 0.115 1.268 4.867 0.095 0.285 25 580131 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.123 0.644 3.756 0.107 0.356 26 580132 1837 1979 143 1.000 0.132 0.851 3.848 0.110 0.385 27 580141 1834 1979 146 1.000 0.104 0.032 2.743 0.063 0.686 28 580142 1825 1979 155 1.000 0.075 0.066 3.347 0.059 0.499 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 130 1.000 0.112 0.637 4.428 0.078 0.505 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.000 0.036 0.572 2.060 0.022 0.159 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 1.000 0.113 0.572 3.834 0.068 0.506 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.000 0.061 0.768 1.248 0.041 0.285 MINIMUM VALUE 56 1.000 0.061 -0.318 2.455 0.051 0.279 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 1.000 0.079 0.212 3.382 0.058 0.342 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.139 0.980 4.630 0.099 0.627 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 1.000 0.199 2.037 11.692 0.116 0.806 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 580011 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 580012 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 580021 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 580022 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 580031 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 580032 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 580041 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 580042 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 580051 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 580052 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 580061 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 580062 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 580071 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 580072 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 580081 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 580082 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 580091 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 580092 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 580101 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 580102 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 580111 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 580112 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 580121 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 580122 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 580131 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 580132 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 580141 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 580142 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 580011 1831 1979 149 1.000 0.068 0.166 2.925 0.069 0.217 2 580012 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.070 0.140 3.404 0.073 0.111 3 580021 1923 1979 57 1.000 0.062 0.564 3.721 0.055 0.222 4 580022 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.055 -0.298 4.114 0.059 0.154 5 580031 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.059 -0.139 2.582 0.056 0.222 6 580032 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.061 0.006 3.675 0.051 0.440 7 580041 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.056 0.393 3.555 0.052 0.289 8 580042 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.060 -0.199 3.483 0.057 0.227 9 580051 1845 1979 135 0.999 0.080 1.373 7.253 0.059 0.413 10 580052 1845 1979 135 0.999 0.100 2.578 13.781 0.057 0.635 11 580061 1850 1979 130 1.000 0.075 0.267 3.902 0.060 0.318 12 580062 1888 1979 92 1.000 0.075 0.494 4.337 0.067 0.239 13 580071 1813 1979 167 0.999 0.101 0.967 5.107 0.063 0.678 14 580072 1816 1979 164 1.000 0.083 0.876 4.831 0.066 0.491 15 580081 1820 1979 160 0.999 0.111 1.272 6.706 0.107 0.047 16 580082 1827 1979 153 0.999 0.123 2.218 13.400 0.116 -0.013 17 580091 1846 1979 134 0.999 0.122 1.244 6.569 0.104 0.230 18 580092 1831 1979 149 0.997 0.112 1.200 6.318 0.091 0.364 19 580101 1833 1979 147 0.999 0.116 0.551 3.706 0.103 0.310 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 580102 1830 1979 150 0.999 0.106 0.492 3.613 0.098 0.297 21 580111 1830 1979 150 0.999 0.114 0.553 3.901 0.102 0.309 22 580112 1849 1979 131 0.997 0.104 0.650 3.607 0.090 0.335 23 580121 1832 1979 148 0.999 0.112 1.143 5.252 0.097 0.275 24 580122 1826 1979 154 1.000 0.105 1.234 5.111 0.095 0.161 25 580131 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.119 0.683 3.727 0.107 0.315 26 580132 1837 1979 143 0.999 0.114 0.991 4.186 0.110 0.193 27 580141 1834 1979 146 0.999 0.082 -0.003 3.335 0.063 0.491 28 580142 1825 1979 155 1.000 0.071 0.202 3.416 0.059 0.433 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 130 0.999 0.090 0.701 4.983 0.078 0.300 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.001 0.023 0.683 2.702 0.022 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 0.999 0.092 0.558 3.901 0.068 0.293 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.001 0.043 0.987 1.600 0.041 0.169 MINIMUM VALUE 56 0.997 0.055 -0.298 2.582 0.051 -0.013 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 0.999 0.069 0.184 3.581 0.059 0.219 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.112 1.172 5.181 0.100 0.388 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 1.000 0.123 2.578 13.781 0.116 0.678 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.307 0.185 0.009 0.097 2.476 -0.159 0.783 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.159 SERIES 580032 AND 580071 63 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.783 SERIES 580081 AND 580082 153 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 136. 231. 276. 351. RBAR 0.430 0.420 0.401 0.299 SDEV 0.223 0.225 0.217 0.214 SERR 0.019 0.015 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.943 0.945 0.946 0.923 NSS 21.8 23.7 26.2 27.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1979 167 0.998 0.055 0.778 4.421 0.055 0.147 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.376 0.163 -0.094 61 106 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 0.65 1.01 1.06 1.71 2.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.146 -0.056 -0.057 -0.020 -0.041 0.064 0.036 0.181 0.004 -0.015 PACF 0.146 -0.079 -0.037 -0.010 -0.044 0.075 0.009 0.185 -0.047 0.018 95% C.L. 0.155 0.158 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.160 0.160 0.165 0.165 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.027 0.146 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.123 -0.067 -0.083 -0.052 -0.058 0.033 -0.031 0.177 0.025 -0.015 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.123 2 0.134 -0.084 3 0.128 -0.075 -0.065 4 0.126 -0.078 -0.060 -0.039 5 0.123 -0.081 -0.064 -0.032 -0.059 6 0.125 -0.080 -0.062 -0.029 -0.064 0.037 7 0.128 -0.084 -0.064 -0.032 -0.068 0.044 -0.056 8 0.138 -0.092 -0.051 -0.026 -0.056 0.059 -0.080 0.189 9 0.144 -0.095 -0.049 -0.028 -0.057 0.058 -0.083 0.193 -0.031 10 0.144 -0.096 -0.048 -0.028 -0.056 0.058 -0.083 0.194 -0.032 0.008 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 948.94 948.38 949.21 950.51 952.25 953.66 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 955.44 956.91 952.82 954.66 956.65 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.123 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.52 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.54 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.123 0.015 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 580011 1 0.049 0.218 2 580012 1 0.016 0.112 3 580021 1 0.054 0.229 4 580022 1 0.102 0.155 5 580031 1 0.051 0.223 6 580032 1 0.199 0.443 7 580041 1 0.091 0.302 8 580042 1 0.077 0.229 9 580051 1 0.192 0.418 10 580052 1 0.404 0.635 11 580061 1 0.141 0.320 12 580062 1 0.059 0.240 13 580071 1 0.473 0.680 14 580072 1 0.252 0.496 15 580081 1 0.003 0.047 16 580082 1 0.020 -0.013 17 580091 1 0.069 0.232 18 580092 1 0.162 0.364 19 580101 1 0.096 0.310 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 580102 1 0.097 0.298 21 580111 1 0.099 0.314 22 580112 1 0.119 0.336 23 580121 1 0.089 0.275 24 580122 1 0.027 0.161 25 580131 1 0.101 0.318 26 580132 1 0.038 0.194 27 580141 1 0.249 0.498 28 580142 1 0.204 0.433 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.126 0.302 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.111 0.158 MEDIAN 1 0.097 0.300 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.124 0.171 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.003 -0.013 LOWER HINGE 1 0.052 0.220 UPPER HINGE 1 0.177 0.391 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.473 0.680 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 580011 1831 1979 149 1.000 0.067 0.209 3.019 0.078 -0.010 2 580012 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.069 0.145 3.414 0.078 -0.008 3 580021 1923 1979 57 1.000 0.060 0.353 3.620 0.065 -0.016 4 580022 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.054 -0.476 4.060 0.062 0.039 5 580031 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.058 -0.114 2.782 0.065 0.007 6 580032 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.055 -0.073 3.745 0.062 -0.025 7 580041 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.053 0.464 3.367 0.060 -0.008 8 580042 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.059 -0.243 3.492 0.065 -0.038 9 580051 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.073 1.854 10.720 0.073 -0.055 10 580052 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.077 2.416 14.555 0.078 0.014 11 580061 1850 1979 130 1.000 0.071 0.620 6.301 0.072 -0.065 12 580062 1888 1979 92 1.000 0.073 0.709 4.630 0.076 -0.011 13 580071 1813 1979 167 1.000 0.074 0.323 4.215 0.087 -0.092 14 580072 1816 1979 164 1.000 0.072 0.592 3.532 0.082 -0.039 15 580081 1820 1979 160 1.000 0.110 1.265 6.642 0.109 0.001 16 580082 1827 1979 153 1.000 0.123 2.221 13.446 0.115 -0.002 17 580091 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.119 1.486 7.343 0.118 -0.032 18 580092 1831 1979 149 1.000 0.104 1.170 6.628 0.112 -0.067 19 580101 1833 1979 147 1.000 0.110 0.595 3.674 0.119 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 580102 1830 1979 150 1.000 0.101 0.613 3.460 0.113 -0.029 21 580111 1830 1979 150 1.000 0.108 0.720 4.071 0.118 -0.005 22 580112 1849 1979 131 1.000 0.098 0.626 4.061 0.107 -0.028 23 580121 1832 1979 148 1.000 0.108 1.265 5.985 0.112 -0.033 24 580122 1826 1979 154 1.000 0.104 1.343 5.403 0.104 -0.004 25 580131 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.113 0.873 3.769 0.123 0.001 26 580132 1837 1979 143 1.000 0.112 0.974 4.049 0.121 0.001 27 580141 1834 1979 146 1.000 0.071 -0.388 4.497 0.080 -0.016 28 580142 1825 1979 155 1.000 0.064 0.493 3.653 0.074 -0.060 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 130 1.000 0.084 0.716 5.290 0.090 -0.021 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.000 0.023 0.726 2.985 0.022 0.028 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 1.000 0.073 0.617 4.061 0.081 -0.013 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.000 0.043 0.951 2.567 0.039 0.035 MINIMUM VALUE 56 1.000 0.053 -0.476 2.782 0.060 -0.092 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 1.000 0.065 0.266 3.576 0.073 -0.036 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.108 1.217 6.143 0.112 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 1.000 0.123 2.416 14.555 0.123 0.039 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.342 0.175 0.009 0.318 2.458 -0.068 0.785 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.068 SERIES 580032 AND 580071 63 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.785 SERIES 580131 AND 580132 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 136. 231. 276. 351. RBAR 0.483 0.455 0.422 0.331 SDEV 0.207 0.202 0.207 0.194 SERR 0.018 0.013 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.953 0.952 0.950 0.933 NSS 21.8 23.7 26.2 27.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1979 167 0.999 0.055 0.878 4.724 0.062 -0.095 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.410 0.175 -0.113 74 93 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.56 1.00 1.07 1.63 5.96 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.095 -0.099 -0.032 -0.008 -0.049 0.069 -0.016 0.183 -0.032 -0.002 PACF -0.095 -0.109 -0.054 -0.029 -0.063 0.052 -0.017 0.194 0.009 0.041 95% C.L. 0.155 0.156 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.159 0.159 0.164 0.164 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.010 -0.113 -0.043 -0.016 -0.044 0.064 0.008 0.182 -0.015 -0.011 PACF -0.010 -0.113 -0.046 -0.031 -0.055 0.056 -0.004 0.195 -0.005 0.037 95% C.L. 0.155 0.155 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.163 0.163 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.013 -0.010 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1979 167 0.999 0.055 0.784 4.525 0.056 0.099 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.099 -0.105 -0.058 -0.027 -0.038 0.062 0.037 0.183 0.005 -0.020 PACF 0.099 -0.116 -0.036 -0.030 -0.044 0.064 0.013 0.192 -0.026 0.030 95% C.L. 0.155 0.156 0.158 0.158 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.160 0.165 0.165 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES