RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT136L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT136L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 580 1 Chable d.trois besses VS WIDTH_LATE PCAB - 580 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1520 4607-711 1813 1979 - 580 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 580011 1831 1979 149 0.208 0.085 1.033 4.284 0.255 0.648 2 580012 1840 1979 140 0.179 0.063 0.659 3.138 0.232 0.624 3 580021 1923 1979 57 0.289 0.085 0.215 2.968 0.220 0.581 4 580022 1920 1979 60 0.229 0.058 0.539 3.655 0.259 0.250 5 580031 1912 1979 68 0.342 0.078 0.737 3.507 0.191 0.404 6 580032 1917 1979 63 0.467 0.144 1.004 3.915 0.244 0.453 7 580041 1870 1979 110 0.234 0.077 1.080 4.466 0.312 0.258 8 580042 1876 1979 104 0.273 0.121 1.423 5.236 0.306 0.559 9 580051 1845 1979 135 0.316 0.163 0.963 3.648 0.320 0.659 10 580052 1845 1979 135 0.308 0.173 1.104 4.839 0.323 0.639 11 580061 1850 1979 130 0.212 0.115 1.314 4.232 0.252 0.800 12 580062 1888 1979 92 0.270 0.114 0.600 2.823 0.283 0.641 13 580071 1813 1979 167 0.367 0.348 1.704 5.005 0.372 0.862 14 580072 1816 1979 164 0.179 0.135 4.037 22.961 0.324 0.764 15 580081 1820 1979 160 0.159 0.075 1.578 6.716 0.224 0.741 16 580082 1827 1979 153 0.282 0.229 5.871 47.089 0.280 0.599 17 580091 1846 1979 134 0.216 0.151 3.066 15.538 0.294 0.696 18 580092 1831 1979 149 0.157 0.081 1.244 4.570 0.242 0.794 19 580101 1833 1979 147 0.241 0.113 1.150 3.763 0.250 0.660 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 580102 1830 1979 150 0.195 0.080 1.521 5.896 0.259 0.631 21 580111 1830 1979 150 0.227 0.113 2.228 9.508 0.254 0.673 22 580112 1849 1979 131 0.229 0.136 1.397 4.545 0.235 0.805 23 580121 1832 1979 148 0.231 0.087 0.571 3.151 0.262 0.615 24 580122 1826 1979 154 0.267 0.167 2.124 7.696 0.303 0.730 25 580131 1846 1979 134 0.235 0.083 0.581 2.975 0.307 0.431 26 580132 1837 1979 143 0.265 0.163 2.116 8.257 0.326 0.667 27 580141 1834 1979 146 0.218 0.068 0.828 4.394 0.271 0.405 28 580142 1825 1979 155 0.225 0.066 0.312 3.434 0.250 0.474 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1813 TO 1979 167 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 130 0.251 0.120 1.464 7.222 0.273 0.609 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.066 0.061 1.200 8.907 0.041 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 0.233 0.113 1.127 4.430 0.260 0.640 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.064 0.068 0.943 2.729 0.059 0.197 MINIMUM VALUE 56 0.157 0.058 0.215 2.823 0.191 0.250 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 0.214 0.079 0.698 3.577 0.247 0.516 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 150 0.278 0.147 1.641 6.306 0.307 0.713 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 0.467 0.348 5.871 47.089 0.372 0.862 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.104 0.228 0.012 0.395 2.512 -0.463 0.698 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.463 SERIES 580021 AND 580082 57 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.698 SERIES 580091 AND 580112 131 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 136. 231. 276. 351. RBAR 0.196 0.104 0.137 0.135 SDEV 0.212 0.251 0.289 0.262 SERR 0.018 0.017 0.017 0.014 EPS 0.841 0.733 0.806 0.813 NSS 21.8 23.7 26.2 27.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1979 167 0.215 0.044 0.064 2.607 0.175 0.410 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.620 0.494 -0.018 105 62 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.94 2.19 1.01 1.31 3.50 83.16 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 142. 30. 57. 120. 150. 167. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.407 0.322 0.353 0.333 0.307 0.278 0.279 0.365 0.272 0.279 PACF 0.407 0.187 0.211 0.138 0.096 0.055 0.066 0.181 0.004 0.061 95% C.L. 0.155 0.179 0.192 0.207 0.219 0.229 0.237 0.245 0.258 0.265 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.266 0.264 0.114 0.162 0.146 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 580011 1 0.22798425 0.04477026 0.00000000 0.17414260 2 580012 1 0.17709284 0.06629907 0.00000000 0.16076234 3 580021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032668 0.29859650 4 580022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030953 0.21955933 5 580031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038306 0.32869622 6 580032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00186012 0.52698410 7 580041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044902 0.20907924 8 580042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00066078 0.23848207 9 580051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042332 0.34441569 10 580052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00055209 0.34561637 11 580061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00170006 0.10072272 12 580062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00180109 0.18668419 13 580071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00199385 0.19922300 14 580072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00033465 0.20681579 15 580081 1 0.14820758 0.03301634 0.00000000 0.13110834 16 580082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037406 0.25348470 17 580091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00148443 0.11584558 18 580092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00097885 0.08403592 19 580101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00198872 0.09405927 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 580102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00103368 0.11715705 21 580111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00137953 0.12257897 22 580112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00193616 0.10137405 23 580121 1 0.07189388 0.01346135 0.00000000 0.20053269 24 580122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00194733 0.11577031 25 580131 1 0.05530584 0.07316326 0.00000000 0.22918987 26 580132 1 0.32519093 0.15066007 0.00000000 0.25104967 27 580141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040716 0.24773453 28 580142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030163 0.24888228 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 580011 1831 1979 149 1.000 0.337 0.736 3.341 0.253 0.563 2 580012 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.298 0.309 2.294 0.231 0.557 3 580021 1923 1979 57 1.000 0.295 0.250 2.998 0.216 0.572 4 580022 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.254 0.556 3.567 0.254 0.233 5 580031 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.224 0.665 3.501 0.188 0.396 6 580032 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.295 1.007 4.147 0.241 0.420 7 580041 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.317 0.899 4.277 0.309 0.225 8 580042 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.434 1.382 5.014 0.304 0.509 9 580051 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.518 1.010 3.682 0.318 0.656 10 580052 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.571 1.484 7.042 0.321 0.615 11 580061 1850 1979 130 1.033 0.521 1.795 8.064 0.252 0.759 12 580062 1888 1979 92 1.003 0.395 0.473 2.423 0.281 0.525 13 580071 1813 1979 167 0.981 0.830 1.677 5.247 0.371 0.835 14 580072 1816 1979 164 0.999 0.763 4.116 22.799 0.322 0.760 15 580081 1820 1979 160 1.000 0.465 3.059 16.801 0.223 0.709 16 580082 1827 1979 153 1.001 0.754 5.288 41.460 0.279 0.593 17 580091 1846 1979 134 1.004 0.609 2.824 14.486 0.293 0.644 18 580092 1831 1979 149 1.020 0.471 1.675 9.978 0.242 0.653 19 580101 1833 1979 147 1.011 0.299 0.988 4.791 0.249 0.246 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 580102 1830 1979 150 1.002 0.325 1.605 8.003 0.257 0.426 21 580111 1830 1979 150 1.013 0.404 1.290 4.544 0.254 0.556 22 580112 1849 1979 131 1.004 0.451 1.102 4.932 0.235 0.695 23 580121 1832 1979 148 1.000 0.376 0.810 3.756 0.260 0.605 24 580122 1826 1979 154 1.024 0.482 1.021 4.132 0.302 0.595 25 580131 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.354 0.701 3.210 0.305 0.428 26 580132 1837 1979 143 0.999 0.581 2.051 8.519 0.324 0.650 27 580141 1834 1979 146 1.000 0.303 0.835 4.403 0.270 0.374 28 580142 1825 1979 155 1.000 0.284 0.176 3.083 0.249 0.447 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 130 1.003 0.436 1.421 7.518 0.271 0.545 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.010 0.161 1.166 8.155 0.041 0.159 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 1.000 0.400 1.015 4.474 0.259 0.568 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.004 0.218 0.957 4.500 0.059 0.224 MINIMUM VALUE 56 0.981 0.224 0.176 2.294 0.188 0.225 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 1.000 0.301 0.718 3.534 0.245 0.427 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 150 1.003 0.519 1.676 8.034 0.304 0.651 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 1.033 0.830 5.288 41.460 0.371 0.835 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 580011 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 580012 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 580021 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 580022 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 580031 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 580032 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 580041 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 580042 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 580051 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 580052 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 580061 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 580062 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 580071 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 580072 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 580081 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 580082 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 580091 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 580092 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 580101 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 580102 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 580111 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 580112 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 580121 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 580122 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 580131 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 580132 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 580141 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 580142 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 580011 1831 1979 149 0.992 0.282 0.674 4.335 0.253 0.402 2 580012 1840 1979 140 0.995 0.268 0.181 2.409 0.231 0.469 3 580021 1923 1979 57 0.996 0.186 0.425 2.945 0.211 0.087 4 580022 1920 1979 60 0.998 0.222 0.324 3.707 0.255 0.019 5 580031 1912 1979 68 0.999 0.204 0.620 3.573 0.189 0.281 6 580032 1917 1979 63 0.997 0.250 0.242 2.821 0.242 0.197 7 580041 1870 1979 110 0.996 0.279 0.518 3.549 0.309 0.015 8 580042 1876 1979 104 0.989 0.348 1.014 4.626 0.305 0.243 9 580051 1845 1979 135 0.984 0.440 0.909 3.753 0.317 0.584 10 580052 1845 1979 135 0.981 0.509 1.773 8.793 0.321 0.501 11 580061 1850 1979 130 0.994 0.308 0.634 3.237 0.251 0.450 12 580062 1888 1979 92 0.995 0.361 0.324 2.351 0.280 0.485 13 580071 1813 1979 167 0.980 0.556 0.807 3.699 0.370 0.608 14 580072 1816 1979 164 0.985 0.648 3.505 17.290 0.322 0.714 15 580081 1820 1979 160 0.985 0.306 1.166 5.627 0.223 0.542 16 580082 1827 1979 153 0.973 0.402 2.800 19.846 0.279 0.418 17 580091 1846 1979 134 0.976 0.488 2.638 13.448 0.293 0.557 18 580092 1831 1979 149 0.990 0.331 0.707 3.865 0.241 0.608 19 580101 1833 1979 147 0.999 0.284 1.401 7.390 0.249 0.186 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 580102 1830 1979 150 0.997 0.305 1.565 8.393 0.258 0.379 21 580111 1830 1979 150 0.994 0.301 1.282 5.990 0.253 0.329 22 580112 1849 1979 131 0.977 0.339 1.126 5.712 0.234 0.562 23 580121 1832 1979 148 0.991 0.340 0.626 3.293 0.260 0.529 24 580122 1826 1979 154 0.994 0.428 2.125 10.941 0.302 0.444 25 580131 1846 1979 134 0.998 0.346 0.742 3.294 0.305 0.405 26 580132 1837 1979 143 0.985 0.451 1.635 6.893 0.326 0.515 27 580141 1834 1979 146 0.999 0.299 0.784 4.261 0.270 0.362 28 580142 1825 1979 155 0.996 0.261 0.094 3.041 0.249 0.350 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 130 0.991 0.348 1.094 6.039 0.271 0.401 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.008 0.108 0.842 4.439 0.041 0.180 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 0.994 0.319 0.795 4.063 0.259 0.431 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.011 0.135 0.914 3.848 0.059 0.231 MINIMUM VALUE 56 0.973 0.186 0.094 2.351 0.189 0.015 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 0.985 0.281 0.569 3.293 0.246 0.305 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 150 0.996 0.415 1.483 7.142 0.305 0.536 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 0.999 0.648 3.505 19.846 0.370 0.714 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.134 0.158 0.008 0.369 2.937 -0.217 0.618 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.217 SERIES 580061 AND 580092 130 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.618 SERIES 580141 AND 580142 146 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 136. 231. 276. 351. RBAR 0.226 0.111 0.139 0.173 SDEV 0.172 0.224 0.224 0.197 SERR 0.015 0.015 0.013 0.010 EPS 0.864 0.748 0.808 0.854 NSS 21.8 23.7 26.2 27.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1979 167 0.971 0.167 -0.028 3.278 0.178 0.143 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.182 0.108 0.168 81 86 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.81 1.00 1.13 1.94 53.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.142 0.088 0.047 -0.038 -0.023 0.018 -0.021 0.108 0.036 0.000 PACF 0.142 0.069 0.026 -0.055 -0.017 0.030 -0.021 0.112 0.006 -0.020 95% C.L. 0.155 0.158 0.159 0.159 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.162 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.025 0.143 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.159 0.031 0.013 -0.085 -0.168 -0.066 -0.040 0.062 -0.042 -0.012 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.159 2 0.158 0.006 3 0.158 0.005 0.008 4 0.159 0.005 0.022 -0.091 5 0.146 0.008 0.023 -0.068 -0.145 6 0.143 0.007 0.023 -0.067 -0.143 -0.017 7 0.143 0.004 0.022 -0.067 -0.143 -0.014 -0.021 8 0.144 0.005 0.033 -0.062 -0.144 -0.015 -0.031 0.075 9 0.151 0.003 0.031 -0.075 -0.150 -0.012 -0.031 0.088 -0.087 10 0.149 0.005 0.031 -0.075 -0.154 -0.014 -0.030 0.088 -0.084 -0.025 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1260.50 1258.21 1260.20 1262.19 1262.82 1261.25 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1263.20 1265.13 1266.17 1266.89 1268.78 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.159 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.53 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.60 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.159 0.025 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 580011 1 0.194 0.403 2 580012 1 0.226 0.470 3 580021 1 0.009 0.089 4 580022 1 0.006 0.019 5 580031 1 0.110 0.282 6 580032 1 0.051 0.198 7 580041 1 0.000 0.015 8 580042 1 0.150 0.244 9 580051 1 0.349 0.585 10 580052 1 0.266 0.514 11 580061 1 0.209 0.455 12 580062 1 0.246 0.490 13 580071 1 0.408 0.630 14 580072 1 0.522 0.715 15 580081 1 0.308 0.555 16 580082 1 0.254 0.418 17 580091 1 0.317 0.563 18 580092 1 0.410 0.631 19 580101 1 0.057 0.187 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 580102 1 0.152 0.382 21 580111 1 0.123 0.332 22 580112 1 0.329 0.564 23 580121 1 0.319 0.529 24 580122 1 0.222 0.446 25 580131 1 0.168 0.408 26 580132 1 0.270 0.518 27 580141 1 0.165 0.363 28 580142 1 0.167 0.351 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.215 0.406 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.130 0.183 MEDIAN 1 0.216 0.432 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.176 0.235 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.000 0.015 LOWER HINGE 1 0.136 0.307 UPPER HINGE 1 0.313 0.542 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.522 0.715 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 580011 1831 1979 149 1.000 0.258 0.797 4.933 0.302 -0.077 2 580012 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.237 0.079 2.568 0.276 -0.038 3 580021 1923 1979 57 1.000 0.185 0.407 2.902 0.223 0.003 4 580022 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.222 0.322 3.696 0.256 0.001 5 580031 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.196 0.520 3.574 0.203 0.050 6 580032 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.245 0.126 2.815 0.268 -0.022 7 580041 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.279 0.520 3.564 0.309 0.000 8 580042 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.337 0.857 4.787 0.355 -0.074 9 580051 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.356 0.752 4.572 0.400 -0.058 10 580052 1845 1979 135 1.002 0.429 1.895 10.056 0.375 -0.007 11 580061 1850 1979 130 1.000 0.274 0.955 3.893 0.284 0.021 12 580062 1888 1979 92 1.000 0.314 0.114 2.810 0.359 -0.047 13 580071 1813 1979 167 1.000 0.432 1.128 5.075 0.440 -0.062 14 580072 1816 1979 164 1.000 0.453 2.926 17.894 0.431 0.105 15 580081 1820 1979 160 1.000 0.254 0.757 4.371 0.275 0.014 16 580082 1827 1979 153 1.000 0.365 3.728 29.170 0.341 -0.129 17 580091 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.403 1.894 9.696 0.383 -0.008 18 580092 1831 1979 149 1.000 0.253 0.534 3.308 0.299 -0.110 19 580101 1833 1979 147 1.000 0.279 1.462 7.692 0.275 -0.029 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 580102 1830 1979 150 1.000 0.281 0.812 5.352 0.314 -0.034 21 580111 1830 1979 150 1.000 0.284 1.135 5.575 0.297 -0.037 22 580112 1849 1979 131 1.000 0.280 0.622 4.373 0.306 -0.069 23 580121 1832 1979 148 1.000 0.288 0.236 3.086 0.346 -0.124 24 580122 1826 1979 154 1.000 0.383 2.701 18.236 0.386 -0.075 25 580131 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.316 0.638 3.052 0.354 0.018 26 580132 1837 1979 143 1.000 0.385 1.393 7.566 0.388 0.028 27 580141 1834 1979 146 1.000 0.278 0.591 3.413 0.316 -0.071 28 580142 1825 1979 155 1.000 0.244 0.022 2.693 0.292 -0.078 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 130 1.000 0.304 0.997 6.454 0.323 -0.033 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.000 0.072 0.905 6.007 0.059 0.054 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 1.000 0.281 0.755 4.372 0.312 -0.036 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.000 0.107 0.800 3.374 0.087 0.075 MINIMUM VALUE 56 1.000 0.185 0.022 2.568 0.203 -0.129 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 1.000 0.254 0.464 3.197 0.280 -0.073 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.361 1.264 6.571 0.367 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 1.002 0.453 3.728 29.170 0.440 0.105 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.192 0.135 0.007 0.342 3.424 -0.178 0.684 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.178 SERIES 580032 AND 580111 63 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.684 SERIES 580141 AND 580142 146 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 136. 231. 276. 351. RBAR 0.351 0.176 0.192 0.223 SDEV 0.134 0.164 0.175 0.168 SERR 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.922 0.835 0.862 0.889 NSS 21.8 23.7 26.2 27.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1979 167 0.986 0.170 0.031 3.068 0.225 -0.294 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.153 0.077 0.151 78 89 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.87 1.00 1.16 2.03 12.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.88 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.292 0.000 0.029 -0.072 -0.021 0.023 -0.089 0.168 -0.012 -0.042 PACF -0.292 -0.094 0.002 -0.069 -0.068 -0.011 -0.096 0.122 0.070 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.155 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.170 0.173 0.174 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.094 -0.293 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.027 -0.083 0.011 -0.082 -0.040 -0.007 -0.042 0.167 0.025 -0.022 PACF -0.027 -0.084 0.006 -0.089 -0.045 -0.025 -0.051 0.157 0.020 0.005 95% C.L. 0.155 0.155 0.156 0.156 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.158 0.162 0.162 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.008 -0.027 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1979 167 0.986 0.163 0.033 3.444 0.175 0.120 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.119 -0.064 -0.014 -0.089 -0.056 -0.018 -0.018 0.165 0.049 -0.007 PACF 0.119 -0.080 0.004 -0.095 -0.034 -0.021 -0.021 0.164 -0.004 0.009 95% C.L. 0.155 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.163 0.164 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.021 0.119 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES