RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT121E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT121E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 606 1 Mittleri Hellelawald WIDTH_EARLY ABAL - 606 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 1510 4618-750 1812 1980 - 606 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 606011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1929 1929 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 606021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1836 1837 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 606022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1836 1836 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 606132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 606011 1843 1980 138 0.895 0.469 1.330 4.960 0.195 0.873 2 606012 1852 1980 129 0.895 0.391 2.256 9.576 0.191 0.754 3 606021 1818 1980 163 0.818 0.373 1.308 4.589 0.196 0.845 4 606022 1812 1980 169 0.881 0.343 1.110 4.275 0.205 0.796 5 606031 1824 1980 157 0.976 0.265 1.184 4.498 0.154 0.733 6 606032 1832 1980 149 1.081 0.284 1.405 5.281 0.160 0.682 7 606041 1853 1980 128 1.127 0.502 1.255 4.314 0.183 0.828 8 606042 1855 1980 126 1.261 0.593 1.282 4.104 0.199 0.818 9 606051 1893 1980 88 1.457 0.360 1.029 5.781 0.168 0.539 10 606052 1899 1980 82 1.472 0.250 0.223 3.242 0.164 0.234 11 606061 1871 1980 110 1.151 0.256 0.500 3.220 0.184 0.474 12 606062 1869 1980 112 1.186 0.272 0.451 3.412 0.184 0.544 13 606071 1893 1980 88 1.323 0.293 -0.518 3.931 0.163 0.533 14 606072 1891 1980 90 1.299 0.342 -0.358 3.837 0.149 0.763 15 606081 1848 1961 114 1.260 0.461 0.665 3.378 0.192 0.812 16 606082 1854 1980 127 1.320 0.528 0.349 2.878 0.180 0.796 17 606091 1830 1980 151 0.872 0.429 1.213 4.108 0.199 0.842 18 606092 1837 1980 144 0.913 0.479 0.578 2.609 0.225 0.818 19 606101 1893 1980 88 1.754 0.516 1.050 3.615 0.143 0.811 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 606102 1893 1980 88 1.767 0.603 0.877 3.469 0.161 0.839 21 606111 1844 1980 137 1.079 0.452 1.126 4.227 0.179 0.824 22 606112 1846 1980 135 1.028 0.438 1.110 4.540 0.203 0.794 23 606121 1836 1980 145 1.431 0.428 0.837 3.501 0.147 0.757 24 606122 1868 1980 113 1.304 0.333 1.263 4.480 0.147 0.697 25 606131 1828 1980 153 1.354 0.448 0.770 3.378 0.181 0.743 26 606132 1823 1980 158 1.250 0.374 0.885 3.345 0.162 0.740 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1812 TO 1980 169 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 126 1.198 0.403 0.892 4.175 0.177 0.727 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.257 0.102 0.569 1.327 0.021 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 1.218 0.409 1.039 4.017 0.181 0.778 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.346 0.136 0.677 1.120 0.034 0.121 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.818 0.250 -0.518 2.609 0.143 0.234 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 0.976 0.333 0.578 3.378 0.161 0.697 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 149 1.323 0.469 1.255 4.498 0.195 0.818 MAXIMUM VALUE 168 1.767 0.603 2.256 9.576 0.225 0.873 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.355 0.308 0.017 -0.397 2.150 -0.329 0.918 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.329 SERIES 606011 AND 606072 90 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.918 SERIES 606101 AND 606102 88 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 55. 171. 300. 300. RBAR 0.414 0.472 0.318 0.259 SDEV 0.295 0.235 0.310 0.307 SERR 0.040 0.018 0.018 0.018 EPS 0.927 0.954 0.924 0.900 NSS 18.0 23.1 25.9 25.8 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1812 1980 169 1.169 0.270 0.927 3.286 0.144 0.702 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.318 0.175 0.165 35 134 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.97 2.74 1.01 1.19 3.92 7.49 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.00 0.87 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 128. 39. 82. 110. 149. 169. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.698 0.634 0.622 0.518 0.467 0.412 0.334 0.317 0.239 0.236 PACF 0.698 0.287 0.226 -0.043 0.000 -0.030 -0.062 0.044 -0.077 0.079 95% C.L. 0.154 0.216 0.256 0.290 0.311 0.327 0.339 0.347 0.354 0.358 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.559 0.429 0.178 0.230 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 606011 1 2.04434657 0.08990936 0.00000000 0.73662639 2 606012 1 2.57227874 0.22808844 0.00000000 0.81759524 3 606021 1 0.91476828 0.00631470 0.00000000 0.24855243 4 606022 1 0.75611860 0.02226443 0.00000000 0.68613356 5 606031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00207143 1.14001226 6 606032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00160290 1.20075452 7 606041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00990661 1.76616383 8 606042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01188574 2.01561785 9 606051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00328572 1.31060350 10 606052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00407342 1.30302620 11 606061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00157176 1.23832357 12 606062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00261890 1.33439672 13 606071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00149458 1.38912225 14 606072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00465490 1.08731329 15 606081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01171479 1.93360031 16 606082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01162859 2.06438684 17 606091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00749658 1.44185960 18 606092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00952271 1.60372961 19 606101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00213897 1.65879309 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 606102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00390361 1.59344828 21 606111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00851457 1.66619146 22 606112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00745054 1.53500724 23 606121 1 1.26709914 0.01003507 0.00000000 0.76725066 24 606122 1 0.88707113 0.02056816 0.00000000 0.96294141 25 606131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00268167 1.56060624 26 606132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00193522 1.40352535 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 606011 1843 1980 138 1.001 0.386 0.525 2.811 0.193 0.803 2 606012 1852 1980 129 1.000 0.312 1.109 4.608 0.190 0.716 3 606021 1818 1980 163 1.000 0.398 1.380 5.190 0.194 0.821 4 606022 1812 1980 169 1.000 0.329 1.409 6.231 0.204 0.709 5 606031 1824 1980 157 0.999 0.246 1.119 4.727 0.153 0.676 6 606032 1832 1980 149 1.000 0.250 1.217 4.885 0.159 0.651 7 606041 1853 1980 128 1.004 0.259 0.861 5.507 0.181 0.594 8 606042 1855 1980 126 1.012 0.301 0.791 3.471 0.197 0.630 9 606051 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.251 1.878 10.164 0.166 0.481 10 606052 1899 1980 82 1.000 0.159 0.286 3.038 0.162 0.135 11 606061 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.216 0.410 3.075 0.182 0.452 12 606062 1869 1980 112 1.000 0.218 0.512 4.063 0.182 0.502 13 606071 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.215 -0.772 4.314 0.162 0.519 14 606072 1891 1980 90 1.000 0.262 0.183 4.791 0.148 0.731 15 606081 1848 1961 114 1.003 0.197 0.159 2.628 0.190 0.305 16 606082 1854 1980 127 0.994 0.219 0.387 3.396 0.178 0.509 17 606091 1830 1980 151 1.010 0.266 0.284 3.539 0.197 0.588 18 606092 1837 1980 144 1.009 0.272 -0.047 3.919 0.223 0.491 19 606101 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.295 1.162 3.701 0.141 0.799 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 606102 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.347 1.178 3.914 0.159 0.830 21 606111 1844 1980 137 0.999 0.247 1.728 7.475 0.178 0.576 22 606112 1846 1980 135 0.997 0.286 1.111 5.677 0.202 0.600 23 606121 1836 1980 145 1.000 0.218 0.381 4.488 0.146 0.601 24 606122 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.182 0.814 3.749 0.146 0.466 25 606131 1828 1980 153 0.999 0.301 0.409 3.584 0.180 0.716 26 606132 1823 1980 158 1.000 0.278 0.576 3.222 0.161 0.707 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 126 1.001 0.266 0.733 4.468 0.176 0.600 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.004 0.058 0.591 1.617 0.021 0.162 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.261 0.683 3.991 0.179 0.600 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.001 0.083 0.781 1.414 0.033 0.214 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.994 0.159 -0.772 2.628 0.141 0.135 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.218 0.381 3.471 0.159 0.502 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 149 1.000 0.301 1.162 4.885 0.193 0.716 MAXIMUM VALUE 169 1.012 0.398 1.878 10.164 0.223 0.830 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 606011 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 606012 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 606021 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 606022 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 606031 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 606032 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 606041 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 606042 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 606051 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 606052 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 606061 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 606062 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 606071 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 606072 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 606081 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 606082 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 606091 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 606092 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 606101 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 606102 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 606111 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 606112 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 606121 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 606122 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 606131 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 606132 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 606011 1843 1980 138 0.997 0.238 0.298 3.082 0.194 0.502 2 606012 1852 1980 129 0.995 0.249 0.546 3.500 0.190 0.584 3 606021 1818 1980 163 0.987 0.328 1.000 4.764 0.194 0.745 4 606022 1812 1980 169 0.993 0.285 1.050 5.274 0.204 0.617 5 606031 1824 1980 157 0.998 0.218 0.971 4.246 0.153 0.596 6 606032 1832 1980 149 0.997 0.226 0.933 4.144 0.159 0.587 7 606041 1853 1980 128 0.997 0.239 0.818 5.392 0.181 0.532 8 606042 1855 1980 126 0.992 0.221 0.890 4.434 0.197 0.366 9 606051 1893 1980 88 0.996 0.193 0.902 4.433 0.165 0.323 10 606052 1899 1980 82 1.000 0.151 0.249 3.365 0.162 0.054 11 606061 1871 1980 110 0.999 0.207 0.351 3.335 0.182 0.412 12 606062 1869 1980 112 0.999 0.207 0.235 3.780 0.182 0.466 13 606071 1893 1980 88 0.999 0.206 -0.765 4.746 0.162 0.485 14 606072 1891 1980 90 0.997 0.242 0.312 6.023 0.148 0.684 15 606081 1848 1961 114 0.999 0.189 0.010 2.524 0.190 0.263 16 606082 1854 1980 127 0.997 0.191 0.410 3.795 0.178 0.339 17 606091 1830 1980 151 0.995 0.232 0.271 3.634 0.197 0.464 18 606092 1837 1980 144 0.996 0.251 -0.147 4.430 0.223 0.398 19 606101 1893 1980 88 0.996 0.245 1.044 3.809 0.142 0.713 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 606102 1893 1980 88 0.994 0.304 1.454 5.957 0.159 0.777 21 606111 1844 1980 137 0.998 0.223 1.154 5.763 0.178 0.507 22 606112 1846 1980 135 0.997 0.253 0.657 5.010 0.201 0.508 23 606121 1836 1980 145 0.997 0.199 0.278 4.407 0.146 0.531 24 606122 1868 1980 113 0.997 0.158 0.767 3.692 0.146 0.313 25 606131 1828 1980 153 0.995 0.254 0.113 3.161 0.180 0.601 26 606132 1823 1980 158 0.996 0.238 0.414 3.001 0.160 0.626 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 126 0.996 0.229 0.547 4.219 0.176 0.500 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.003 0.040 0.482 0.948 0.021 0.164 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 0.997 0.229 0.480 4.195 0.179 0.508 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.003 0.044 0.662 1.264 0.035 0.203 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.987 0.151 -0.765 2.524 0.142 0.054 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 0.995 0.206 0.271 3.500 0.159 0.398 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 149 0.998 0.249 0.933 4.764 0.194 0.601 MAXIMUM VALUE 169 1.000 0.328 1.454 6.023 0.223 0.777 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.327 0.193 0.011 0.129 2.786 -0.167 0.895 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.167 SERIES 606102 AND 606132 88 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.895 SERIES 606101 AND 606102 88 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 55. 171. 300. 300. RBAR 0.481 0.446 0.326 0.378 SDEV 0.249 0.219 0.224 0.197 SERR 0.034 0.017 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.943 0.949 0.926 0.940 NSS 18.0 23.1 25.9 25.8 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1812 1980 169 0.996 0.158 0.567 3.687 0.146 0.400 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.408 0.209 -0.036 53 116 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.28 1.00 1.07 1.35 5.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.397 0.324 0.310 0.146 0.125 0.104 -0.046 -0.003 -0.092 -0.080 PACF 0.397 0.197 0.159 -0.068 0.003 0.014 -0.134 0.014 -0.097 0.016 95% C.L. 0.154 0.176 0.190 0.202 0.204 0.206 0.207 0.207 0.207 0.208 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.216 0.288 0.147 0.161 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.342 0.301 0.248 0.079 0.062 0.091 -0.076 0.004 -0.085 -0.077 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.342 2 0.271 0.208 3 0.248 0.177 0.113 4 0.258 0.193 0.135 -0.090 5 0.256 0.196 0.139 -0.085 -0.020 6 0.257 0.202 0.130 -0.099 -0.037 0.069 7 0.267 0.197 0.116 -0.081 -0.010 0.104 -0.135 8 0.271 0.194 0.117 -0.079 -0.013 0.098 -0.142 0.028 9 0.273 0.182 0.125 -0.080 -0.020 0.108 -0.126 0.051 -0.084 10 0.273 0.182 0.125 -0.080 -0.020 0.108 -0.126 0.051 -0.083 -0.001 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1232.59 1213.51 1208.03 1207.85 1208.48 1210.41 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1211.60 1210.51 1212.37 1213.19 1215.19 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.248 0.177 0.113 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 16.63 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 119.95 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.248 0.239 0.216 0.124 0.096 0.070 0.048 0.035 0.025 0.0180 0.013 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 606011 3 0.284 0.433 0.027 0.170 2 606012 3 0.402 0.419 0.203 0.097 3 606021 3 0.594 0.648 0.064 0.090 4 606022 3 0.423 0.479 0.128 0.122 5 606031 3 0.378 0.551 0.022 0.080 6 606032 3 0.446 0.386 0.197 0.166 7 606041 3 0.322 0.416 0.154 0.082 8 606042 3 0.223 0.255 0.135 0.206 9 606051 3 0.148 0.298 0.177 -0.034 10 606052 3 0.073 0.019 0.239 0.092 11 606061 3 0.240 0.369 0.228 -0.163 12 606062 3 0.250 0.396 0.203 -0.071 13 606071 3 0.284 0.511 0.024 -0.193 14 606072 3 0.558 0.724 0.152 -0.351 15 606081 3 0.084 0.244 0.051 0.069 16 606082 3 0.196 0.234 0.193 0.153 17 606091 3 0.265 0.335 0.195 0.097 18 606092 3 0.191 0.362 0.001 0.169 19 606101 3 0.518 0.694 0.086 -0.075 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 606102 3 0.618 0.892 -0.100 -0.065 21 606111 3 0.282 0.461 0.167 -0.111 22 606112 3 0.283 0.532 0.003 -0.117 23 606121 3 0.322 0.428 0.120 0.108 24 606122 3 0.128 0.260 0.119 0.093 25 606131 3 0.365 0.569 0.056 -0.002 26 606132 3 0.402 0.588 0.036 0.045 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.318 0.443 0.111 0.025 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.148 0.182 0.086 0.135 MEDIAN 3 0.284 0.424 0.124 0.081 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.179 0.216 0.157 0.179 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.073 0.019 -0.100 -0.351 LOWER HINGE 3 0.223 0.335 0.036 -0.071 UPPER HINGE 3 0.402 0.551 0.193 0.108 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.618 0.892 0.239 0.206 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 606011 1843 1980 138 1.000 0.201 -0.003 3.096 0.221 0.002 2 606012 1852 1980 129 1.000 0.195 0.220 2.686 0.226 0.015 3 606021 1818 1980 163 1.000 0.213 0.047 2.990 0.245 0.015 4 606022 1812 1980 169 1.000 0.218 0.210 4.140 0.248 0.014 5 606031 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.174 0.606 4.439 0.195 0.012 6 606032 1832 1980 149 1.000 0.174 0.139 3.426 0.190 0.038 7 606041 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.198 0.646 4.346 0.221 0.007 8 606042 1855 1980 126 1.000 0.198 0.519 3.481 0.215 0.034 9 606051 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.176 0.478 4.041 0.196 -0.033 10 606052 1899 1980 82 1.000 0.145 0.249 3.277 0.161 0.000 11 606061 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.183 0.288 3.280 0.210 -0.028 12 606062 1869 1980 112 1.000 0.180 0.031 3.264 0.208 -0.006 13 606071 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.176 -0.183 5.067 0.204 -0.029 14 606072 1891 1980 90 1.000 0.164 0.845 4.180 0.184 -0.066 15 606081 1848 1961 114 1.000 0.181 -0.030 2.503 0.211 0.009 16 606082 1854 1980 127 1.000 0.170 0.339 3.659 0.198 0.001 17 606091 1830 1980 151 1.000 0.199 0.327 3.188 0.229 -0.006 18 606092 1837 1980 144 1.000 0.226 -0.377 5.209 0.269 -0.012 19 606101 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.170 1.508 6.858 0.185 -0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 606102 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.188 1.202 5.793 0.216 0.002 21 606111 1844 1980 137 1.000 0.189 0.168 4.058 0.223 -0.009 22 606112 1846 1980 135 1.000 0.215 0.057 3.703 0.254 -0.016 23 606121 1836 1980 145 1.000 0.165 0.063 5.981 0.181 0.009 24 606122 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.148 0.517 3.035 0.164 -0.003 25 606131 1828 1980 153 1.000 0.202 -0.071 3.462 0.221 0.000 26 606132 1823 1980 158 1.000 0.184 0.194 3.421 0.203 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 126 1.000 0.186 0.307 3.945 0.211 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.020 0.413 1.070 0.026 0.021 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.183 0.215 3.570 0.210 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.000 0.025 0.471 1.082 0.029 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.000 0.145 -0.377 2.503 0.161 -0.066 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.174 0.047 3.264 0.195 -0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 149 1.000 0.199 0.517 4.346 0.223 0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 169 1.000 0.226 1.508 6.858 0.269 0.038 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.429 0.140 0.008 0.111 2.728 0.084 0.797 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.084 SERIES 606071 AND 606131 88 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.797 SERIES 606031 AND 606032 149 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 55. 171. 300. 300. RBAR 0.529 0.525 0.462 0.485 SDEV 0.154 0.140 0.163 0.141 SERR 0.021 0.011 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.953 0.962 0.957 0.961 NSS 18.0 23.1 25.9 25.8 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1812 1980 169 0.999 0.136 0.069 2.675 0.171 -0.136 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.180 0.082 0.047 50 119 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.58 1.01 1.08 1.66 9.79 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.05 0.00 0.89 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.135 -0.016 0.094 -0.056 0.018 0.059 -0.108 0.080 -0.078 0.049 PACF -0.135 -0.035 0.088 -0.033 0.010 0.055 -0.087 0.054 -0.075 0.056 95% C.L. 0.154 0.157 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.159 0.159 0.161 0.162 0.163 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.020 -0.135 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 -0.002 -0.009 -0.020 0.013 0.048 -0.094 0.073 -0.073 0.032 PACF 0.003 -0.002 -0.008 -0.020 0.013 0.047 -0.095 0.074 -0.075 0.035 95% C.L. 0.154 0.154 0.154 0.154 0.154 0.154 0.154 0.156 0.156 0.157 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.001 0.003 -0.002 -0.009 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1812 1980 169 0.999 0.146 0.503 3.620 0.142 0.335 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.333 0.287 0.228 0.117 0.098 0.078 -0.048 0.026 -0.094 -0.051 PACF 0.333 0.197 0.100 -0.026 0.009 0.017 -0.114 0.044 -0.106 0.009 95% C.L. 0.154 0.170 0.181 0.188 0.190 0.191 0.191 0.192 0.192 0.193 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.155 0.268 0.198 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES