RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT118X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT118X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 603 1 Bannwald Sźd Tanne abst. DENSITY_MAXIMUM ABAL - 603 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 1230 4620-738 1809 1981 - 603 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 12 603462 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 603471 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1943 1943 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 603472 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 0.894 0.117 -1.569 5.545 0.075 0.762 2 603412 1881 1980 100 0.871 0.147 -2.025 5.930 0.063 0.868 3 603421 1900 1981 82 0.905 0.068 -1.222 4.761 0.057 0.532 4 603422 1897 1981 85 0.896 0.051 0.063 2.443 0.060 0.155 5 603431 1868 1981 114 0.899 0.055 -0.282 2.400 0.055 0.368 6 603432 1872 1981 110 0.898 0.059 -1.162 6.471 0.062 0.282 7 603441 1887 1981 95 0.884 0.063 -0.957 5.205 0.055 0.524 8 603442 1882 1981 100 0.891 0.062 -0.755 4.203 0.056 0.468 9 603451 1818 1981 164 0.890 0.079 -1.360 5.811 0.068 0.536 10 603452 1834 1981 148 0.764 0.093 -0.657 3.583 0.078 0.654 11 603461 1841 1972 132 0.917 0.093 -1.368 4.037 0.056 0.728 12 603462 1835 1970 136 0.890 0.120 -0.997 2.863 0.060 0.851 13 603471 1810 1981 172 0.940 0.070 -1.468 5.626 0.048 0.608 14 603472 1809 1981 173 0.945 0.065 -1.327 6.477 0.045 0.590 15 603481 1889 1979 91 0.956 0.082 -2.834 11.057 0.043 0.692 16 603482 1889 1981 93 0.922 0.122 -2.712 9.108 0.044 0.851 17 603491 1874 1979 106 0.941 0.098 -1.814 6.361 0.055 0.748 18 603492 1880 1974 95 0.944 0.077 -1.573 5.528 0.046 0.690 19 603511 1865 1975 111 0.923 0.075 -1.995 10.422 0.055 0.520 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 0.919 0.062 -2.282 12.016 0.059 0.350 21 603521 1872 1978 107 0.904 0.062 -1.363 6.590 0.059 0.290 22 603522 1864 1974 111 0.896 0.092 -1.328 6.937 0.070 0.579 23 603531 1868 1981 114 0.952 0.068 -1.409 5.373 0.055 0.559 24 603532 1867 1978 112 0.919 0.074 -1.363 8.258 0.052 0.584 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1809 TO 1981 173 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 0.907 0.081 -1.407 6.125 0.057 0.574 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.038 0.024 0.671 2.546 0.009 0.189 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 0.904 0.074 -1.363 5.718 0.056 0.581 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.038 0.030 0.614 2.282 0.008 0.216 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.764 0.051 -2.834 2.400 0.043 0.155 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 0.893 0.063 -1.694 4.482 0.053 0.494 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 0.931 0.093 -1.080 6.763 0.061 0.710 MAXIMUM VALUE 172 0.956 0.147 0.063 12.016 0.078 0.868 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.531 0.209 0.013 -0.921 4.382 -0.427 0.903 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.427 SERIES 603442 AND 603462 89 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.903 SERIES 603481 AND 603482 91 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.03 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 15. 171. 276. RBAR 0.294 0.345 0.429 0.436 SDEV 0.178 0.282 0.189 0.200 SERR 0.056 0.073 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.792 0.902 0.946 0.949 NSS 9.2 17.5 23.3 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 0.925 0.060 -1.763 7.302 0.043 0.690 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.695 -0.346 0.377 83 90 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.48 3.10 1.00 1.14 4.24 41.17 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 108. 26. 82. 98. 123. 173. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.686 0.644 0.595 0.527 0.455 0.463 0.381 0.360 0.356 0.312 PACF 0.686 0.328 0.155 0.025 -0.040 0.112 -0.058 0.016 0.065 -0.018 95% C.L. 0.152 0.212 0.253 0.284 0.305 0.321 0.336 0.346 0.354 0.362 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.579 0.355 0.268 0.227 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 603411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00267831 1.02945459 2 603412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00334161 1.03935146 3 603421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00195296 0.98592591 4 603422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025093 0.90714282 5 603431 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00086726 0.94907779 6 603432 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00047720 0.92421186 7 603441 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00076876 0.92058456 8 603442 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040696 0.87064850 9 603451 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00087247 0.96197891 10 603452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00080983 0.82445395 11 603461 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00174498 1.03285909 12 603462 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00251487 1.06230760 13 603471 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00055070 0.98684257 14 603472 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00075265 1.00929904 15 603481 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00139560 1.01991212 16 603482 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00273507 1.05091393 17 603491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00183298 1.03938544 18 603492 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00124286 1.00344682 19 603511 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00099763 0.97866011 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 603512 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00073630 0.95873213 21 603521 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011227 0.91008109 22 603522 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00090277 0.94695169 23 603531 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00117288 1.01963365 24 603532 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00142789 0.99942565 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.105 -1.038 5.035 0.074 0.621 2 603412 1881 1980 100 0.999 0.142 -1.207 4.288 0.062 0.801 3 603421 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.057 -0.566 5.476 0.056 0.160 4 603422 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.057 0.117 2.433 0.059 0.143 5 603431 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.052 -0.281 2.882 0.055 0.146 6 603432 1872 1981 110 1.000 0.064 -0.933 6.191 0.062 0.236 7 603441 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.067 -0.625 4.792 0.055 0.460 8 603442 1882 1981 100 1.000 0.068 -0.993 5.055 0.055 0.437 9 603451 1818 1981 164 1.000 0.078 -0.929 5.031 0.067 0.385 10 603452 1834 1981 148 1.000 0.115 -0.296 2.924 0.078 0.593 11 603461 1841 1972 132 1.000 0.074 -0.576 3.523 0.056 0.452 12 603462 1835 1970 136 0.999 0.078 -0.608 3.429 0.060 0.462 13 603471 1810 1981 172 1.000 0.070 -1.029 5.158 0.049 0.560 14 603472 1809 1981 173 1.000 0.058 -1.456 8.378 0.045 0.428 15 603481 1889 1979 91 1.000 0.080 -2.087 8.401 0.042 0.647 16 603482 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.115 -2.030 6.901 0.044 0.808 17 603491 1874 1979 106 1.000 0.089 -1.459 5.347 0.054 0.652 18 603492 1880 1974 95 1.000 0.074 -1.226 4.506 0.046 0.625 19 603511 1865 1975 111 1.000 0.075 -1.698 9.657 0.054 0.449 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 1.000 0.064 -2.011 11.022 0.059 0.274 21 603521 1872 1978 107 1.000 0.069 -1.339 6.344 0.058 0.286 22 603522 1864 1974 111 1.000 0.098 -1.414 6.356 0.070 0.543 23 603531 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.060 -0.792 4.136 0.054 0.323 24 603532 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.065 -1.655 10.200 0.052 0.365 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.000 0.078 -1.089 5.728 0.057 0.452 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.022 0.581 2.340 0.009 0.191 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 1.000 0.072 -1.033 5.107 0.056 0.451 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.000 0.020 0.841 2.416 0.008 0.303 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.999 0.052 -2.087 2.433 0.042 0.143 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 1.000 0.064 -1.457 4.212 0.053 0.304 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.085 -0.616 6.628 0.061 0.607 MAXIMUM VALUE 173 1.000 0.142 0.117 11.022 0.078 0.808 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 603411 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 603412 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 603421 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 603422 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 603431 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 603432 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 603441 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 603442 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 603451 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 603452 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 603461 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 603462 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 603471 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 603472 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 603481 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 603482 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 603491 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 603492 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 603511 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 603512 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 603521 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 603522 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 603531 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 603532 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 0.999 0.082 -0.763 4.901 0.074 0.389 2 603412 1881 1980 100 0.997 0.079 -0.178 4.029 0.061 0.464 3 603421 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.050 -0.542 5.732 0.056 -0.080 4 603422 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.053 -0.096 2.613 0.059 0.031 5 603431 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.050 -0.284 2.781 0.055 0.078 6 603432 1872 1981 110 1.000 0.057 -0.928 5.962 0.062 0.025 7 603441 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.055 -0.845 4.810 0.054 0.202 8 603442 1882 1981 100 1.000 0.050 -1.216 6.617 0.055 0.003 9 603451 1818 1981 164 1.000 0.064 -0.626 5.083 0.067 0.103 10 603452 1834 1981 148 0.999 0.080 0.031 3.975 0.078 0.165 11 603461 1841 1972 132 1.000 0.057 -0.520 4.315 0.056 0.092 12 603462 1835 1970 136 1.000 0.057 -0.597 5.234 0.060 -0.010 13 603471 1810 1981 172 1.000 0.064 -0.948 5.970 0.049 0.481 14 603472 1809 1981 173 1.000 0.052 -1.626 10.925 0.045 0.292 15 603481 1889 1979 91 0.999 0.062 -0.776 5.906 0.042 0.525 16 603482 1889 1981 93 0.998 0.078 -0.587 6.008 0.043 0.682 17 603491 1874 1979 106 1.000 0.074 -0.566 5.030 0.054 0.535 18 603492 1880 1974 95 1.000 0.048 -0.546 4.133 0.046 0.188 19 603511 1865 1975 111 1.000 0.062 -1.324 8.467 0.054 0.244 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 1.000 0.053 -1.937 10.764 0.059 -0.094 21 603521 1872 1978 107 1.000 0.057 -1.210 5.840 0.058 0.010 22 603522 1864 1974 111 0.999 0.076 -1.131 6.058 0.070 0.268 23 603531 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.052 0.429 6.663 0.054 0.013 24 603532 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.060 -1.442 10.133 0.052 0.280 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.000 0.061 -0.760 5.914 0.057 0.204 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.001 0.011 0.546 2.207 0.009 0.216 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 1.000 0.057 -0.694 5.786 0.056 0.177 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.000 0.017 0.640 1.775 0.008 0.321 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.997 0.048 -1.937 2.613 0.042 -0.094 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 1.000 0.052 -1.171 4.563 0.053 0.019 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.069 -0.531 6.338 0.060 0.340 MAXIMUM VALUE 173 1.000 0.082 0.429 10.925 0.078 0.682 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.406 0.160 0.010 -0.063 2.618 -0.027 0.804 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.027 SERIES 603482 AND 603512 85 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.804 SERIES 603481 AND 603482 91 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.03 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 15. 171. 276. RBAR 0.271 0.389 0.471 0.466 SDEV 0.210 0.148 0.131 0.170 SERR 0.066 0.038 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.773 0.918 0.954 0.954 NSS 9.2 17.5 23.3 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 1.000 0.038 -0.676 5.723 0.039 0.213 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.256 -0.138 0.178 57 116 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.43 1.01 1.10 1.53 5.08 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.211 0.164 0.119 0.001 -0.052 0.036 -0.097 -0.043 0.027 -0.035 PACF 0.211 0.125 0.066 -0.056 -0.072 0.062 -0.098 -0.010 0.054 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.152 0.159 0.163 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.166 0.167 0.167 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.065 0.185 0.127 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.126 0.112 0.073 -0.041 -0.039 -0.040 -0.125 -0.057 0.087 0.029 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.126 2 0.114 0.098 3 0.109 0.093 0.049 4 0.112 0.099 0.056 -0.068 5 0.109 0.101 0.060 -0.063 -0.041 6 0.108 0.100 0.062 -0.061 -0.038 -0.024 7 0.106 0.096 0.055 -0.054 -0.027 -0.013 -0.107 8 0.103 0.095 0.055 -0.055 -0.026 -0.010 -0.104 -0.024 9 0.106 0.108 0.056 -0.052 -0.019 -0.017 -0.116 -0.037 0.125 10 0.103 0.109 0.059 -0.052 -0.019 -0.016 -0.118 -0.040 0.122 0.028 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 790.64 789.88 790.20 791.79 792.99 794.70 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 796.60 796.62 798.52 797.81 799.68 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.126 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.59 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.61 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.126 0.016 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 603411 1 0.166 0.391 2 603412 1 0.296 0.469 3 603421 1 0.006 -0.080 4 603422 1 0.018 0.031 5 603431 1 0.008 0.079 6 603432 1 0.004 0.025 7 603441 1 0.046 0.204 8 603442 1 0.024 0.003 9 603451 1 0.038 0.104 10 603452 1 0.061 0.167 11 603461 1 0.064 0.093 12 603462 1 0.000 -0.010 13 603471 1 0.313 0.481 14 603472 1 0.133 0.293 15 603481 1 0.335 0.566 16 603482 1 0.507 0.709 17 603491 1 0.323 0.545 18 603492 1 0.042 0.191 19 603511 1 0.085 0.279 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 603512 1 0.010 -0.095 21 603521 1 0.003 0.011 22 603522 1 0.153 0.298 23 603531 1 0.001 0.015 24 603532 1 0.118 0.324 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.115 0.212 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.139 0.224 MEDIAN 1 0.053 0.179 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.150 0.338 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.000 -0.095 LOWER HINGE 1 0.009 0.020 UPPER HINGE 1 0.159 0.357 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.507 0.709 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.075 -0.438 4.088 0.087 -0.050 2 603412 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.070 -0.427 4.026 0.079 -0.146 3 603421 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.050 -0.448 5.646 0.054 -0.001 4 603422 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.053 -0.102 2.626 0.060 -0.004 5 603431 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.050 -0.266 2.734 0.057 0.004 6 603432 1872 1981 110 1.000 0.057 -0.912 5.877 0.063 -0.002 7 603441 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.053 -0.818 4.790 0.060 -0.015 8 603442 1882 1981 100 1.000 0.050 -1.216 6.615 0.056 0.000 9 603451 1818 1981 164 1.000 0.064 -0.595 5.029 0.071 -0.016 10 603452 1834 1981 148 1.000 0.079 0.043 4.137 0.084 -0.027 11 603461 1841 1972 132 1.000 0.057 -0.444 4.572 0.059 -0.022 12 603462 1835 1970 136 1.000 0.057 -0.607 5.249 0.059 0.000 13 603471 1810 1981 172 1.000 0.057 -1.313 7.933 0.064 -0.157 14 603472 1809 1981 173 1.000 0.049 -1.780 12.531 0.052 -0.065 15 603481 1889 1979 91 1.000 0.051 -0.687 3.539 0.056 -0.039 16 603482 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.055 -1.113 7.033 0.060 -0.033 17 603491 1874 1979 106 1.000 0.062 -0.718 4.614 0.068 -0.101 18 603492 1880 1974 95 1.000 0.047 -0.536 4.358 0.051 -0.012 19 603511 1865 1975 111 1.000 0.059 -1.327 8.185 0.062 0.013 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 1.000 0.052 -1.852 9.979 0.056 -0.003 21 603521 1872 1978 107 1.000 0.057 -1.213 5.866 0.058 0.001 22 603522 1864 1974 111 1.000 0.072 -0.983 4.823 0.082 -0.043 23 603531 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.052 0.447 6.760 0.055 0.002 24 603532 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.056 -1.339 8.568 0.058 0.078 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.000 0.058 -0.777 5.816 0.063 -0.027 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.009 0.556 2.332 0.010 0.050 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 1.000 0.056 -0.702 5.139 0.060 -0.014 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.000 0.009 0.774 2.649 0.010 0.040 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.000 0.047 -1.852 2.626 0.051 -0.157 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 1.000 0.052 -1.215 4.247 0.056 -0.041 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.060 -0.441 6.897 0.066 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 173 1.000 0.079 0.447 12.531 0.087 0.078 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.432 0.138 0.008 -0.024 2.395 0.109 0.784 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.109 SERIES 603422 AND 603491 83 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.784 SERIES 603421 AND 603432 82 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.03 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 15. 171. 276. RBAR 0.277 0.418 0.487 0.499 SDEV 0.235 0.147 0.123 0.150 SERR 0.074 0.038 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.779 0.927 0.957 0.960 NSS 9.2 17.5 23.3 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 1.000 0.036 -0.448 4.090 0.043 -0.054 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.209 -0.102 0.139 59 114 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.67 1.00 1.10 1.78 5.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.054 0.058 0.066 -0.030 -0.058 0.061 -0.076 -0.009 0.071 -0.009 PACF -0.054 0.055 0.073 -0.026 -0.070 0.053 -0.059 -0.016 0.068 0.008 95% C.L. 0.152 0.152 0.153 0.154 0.154 0.154 0.155 0.156 0.156 0.156 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.059 0.068 -0.030 -0.057 0.052 -0.074 -0.010 0.070 -0.016 PACF 0.003 0.059 0.068 -0.034 -0.066 0.052 -0.063 -0.009 0.069 -0.007 95% C.L. 0.152 0.152 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.154 0.154 0.155 0.155 0.156 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.003 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 1.000 0.036 -0.492 4.530 0.039 0.137 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.137 0.083 0.072 -0.028 -0.055 0.033 -0.070 -0.012 0.061 -0.035 PACF 0.137 0.065 0.053 -0.050 -0.055 0.050 -0.069 0.006 0.065 -0.044 95% C.L. 0.152 0.155 0.156 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.159 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.023 0.137 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.19 MINUTES