RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT118P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT118P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 603 1 Bannwald Sźd Tanne abst. LATEWOOD_PERCENT ABAL - 603 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 1230 4620-738 1809 1981 - 603 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 12 603462 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 603471 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1943 1943 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 603472 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 1.913 0.647 0.882 4.397 0.277 0.374 2 603412 1881 1980 100 1.679 0.635 1.011 5.531 0.296 0.454 3 603421 1900 1981 82 2.522 0.584 0.735 3.818 0.239 0.067 4 603422 1897 1981 85 2.562 0.690 1.092 4.611 0.254 0.202 5 603431 1868 1981 114 1.684 0.555 1.029 3.948 0.228 0.523 6 603432 1872 1981 110 1.994 0.618 1.026 4.007 0.281 0.311 7 603441 1887 1981 95 2.066 0.554 0.991 4.014 0.267 0.243 8 603442 1882 1981 100 2.230 0.771 1.456 5.958 0.280 0.459 9 603451 1818 1981 164 1.892 0.673 2.343 15.304 0.343 0.023 10 603452 1834 1981 148 1.893 0.608 0.980 4.724 0.302 0.181 11 603461 1841 1972 132 2.394 0.664 1.810 10.185 0.209 0.379 12 603462 1835 1970 136 2.378 0.520 0.685 3.452 0.198 0.362 13 603471 1810 1981 172 2.852 0.803 1.924 10.027 0.234 0.231 14 603472 1809 1981 173 2.889 0.809 1.046 5.111 0.226 0.380 15 603481 1889 1979 91 2.743 0.918 1.520 5.602 0.209 0.675 16 603482 1889 1981 93 2.538 0.696 0.049 4.633 0.246 0.248 17 603491 1874 1979 106 2.404 0.633 0.861 4.183 0.268 0.236 18 603492 1880 1974 95 2.675 0.821 1.470 5.468 0.272 0.328 19 603511 1865 1975 111 2.307 0.715 1.327 4.864 0.232 0.370 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 2.164 0.581 1.945 10.107 0.212 0.212 21 603521 1872 1978 107 2.135 0.723 1.422 6.173 0.294 0.236 22 603522 1864 1974 111 2.064 0.706 2.063 11.127 0.248 0.388 23 603531 1868 1981 114 2.113 0.578 0.907 4.383 0.229 0.353 24 603532 1867 1978 112 2.125 0.572 1.295 5.833 0.242 0.261 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1809 TO 1981 173 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 2.259 0.670 1.245 6.144 0.254 0.312 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.344 0.100 0.515 2.971 0.035 0.141 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 2.197 0.655 1.069 4.987 0.247 0.320 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.502 0.137 0.552 1.783 0.050 0.146 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.679 0.520 0.049 3.452 0.198 0.023 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 2.029 0.582 0.943 4.283 0.229 0.233 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 2.530 0.719 1.495 6.065 0.279 0.379 MAXIMUM VALUE 172 2.889 0.918 2.343 15.304 0.343 0.675 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.299 0.175 0.011 -0.141 3.337 -0.288 0.778 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.288 SERIES 603411 AND 603481 91 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.778 SERIES 603441 AND 603442 95 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.03 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 15. 171. 276. RBAR 0.167 0.187 0.428 0.453 SDEV 0.210 0.287 0.203 0.149 SERR 0.066 0.074 0.016 0.009 EPS 0.647 0.802 0.946 0.952 NSS 9.2 17.5 23.3 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 2.274 0.399 1.325 6.213 0.175 0.104 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.154 0.099 0.355 44 129 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.73 1.34 1.00 1.21 2.55 94.08 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 108. 26. 82. 98. 123. 173. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.103 0.035 0.130 -0.009 -0.015 0.086 0.077 0.032 0.053 -0.012 PACF 0.103 0.024 0.125 -0.036 -0.017 0.076 0.069 0.019 0.025 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.152 0.154 0.154 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.159 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 603411 1 2.53490043 0.00602668 0.00000000 0.01450762 2 603412 1 1.91774869 0.01289420 0.00000000 0.60822576 3 603421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00273517 2.40831971 4 603422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00244010 2.66645384 5 603431 1 1.51244712 0.05665760 0.00000000 1.45636952 6 603432 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00920267 1.48279738 7 603441 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00479255 1.83616793 8 603442 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00846163 1.80258787 9 603451 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00111735 1.79989147 10 603452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00221147 1.72848868 11 603461 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00145638 2.29724145 12 603462 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00115268 2.47568631 13 603471 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00440484 2.47669291 14 603472 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00166313 2.75827169 15 603481 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02088915 1.78184617 16 603482 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00861672 2.94337296 17 603491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00516865 2.12743926 18 603492 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00521739 2.42430234 19 603511 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00467515 2.56910563 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 603512 1 0.73916960 0.01933482 0.00000000 1.85469913 21 603521 1 1.05806708 0.02997124 0.00000000 1.82282603 22 603522 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01026325 2.63834572 23 603531 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00378158 2.33051085 24 603532 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00160185 2.03476357 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.305 1.457 6.763 0.274 0.074 2 603412 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.311 0.875 4.587 0.293 0.029 3 603421 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.231 0.803 3.988 0.237 0.041 4 603422 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.270 1.180 4.860 0.251 0.207 5 603431 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.264 0.945 4.438 0.226 0.235 6 603432 1872 1981 110 1.002 0.263 0.352 3.072 0.278 0.079 7 603441 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.260 1.045 4.271 0.264 0.195 8 603442 1882 1981 100 1.001 0.331 1.742 7.720 0.277 0.396 9 603451 1818 1981 164 1.000 0.355 2.328 14.763 0.341 0.016 10 603452 1834 1981 148 1.000 0.314 0.881 4.486 0.300 0.155 11 603461 1841 1972 132 1.000 0.274 1.694 9.747 0.208 0.376 12 603462 1835 1970 136 1.000 0.235 1.255 5.948 0.204 0.309 13 603471 1810 1981 172 1.000 0.266 1.716 8.762 0.234 0.207 14 603472 1809 1981 173 1.000 0.282 1.086 5.346 0.223 0.435 15 603481 1889 1979 91 1.004 0.261 1.028 4.234 0.206 0.401 16 603482 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.268 0.161 4.317 0.244 0.164 17 603491 1874 1979 106 1.000 0.257 0.921 4.358 0.265 0.192 18 603492 1880 1974 95 1.000 0.304 1.556 5.793 0.269 0.308 19 603511 1865 1975 111 1.000 0.305 1.557 5.933 0.229 0.322 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 1.000 0.257 2.331 13.210 0.210 0.117 21 603521 1872 1978 107 1.000 0.318 1.667 7.873 0.291 0.128 22 603522 1864 1974 111 1.000 0.294 1.922 9.582 0.246 0.169 23 603531 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.267 0.884 4.141 0.227 0.313 24 603532 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.268 1.339 6.349 0.239 0.250 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.000 0.282 1.280 6.439 0.251 0.213 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.001 0.030 0.542 2.964 0.035 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 1.000 0.269 1.217 5.569 0.245 0.201 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.000 0.043 0.778 3.459 0.049 0.188 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.000 0.231 0.161 3.072 0.204 0.016 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 1.000 0.262 0.903 4.337 0.227 0.123 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.305 1.680 7.796 0.276 0.311 MAXIMUM VALUE 173 1.004 0.355 2.331 14.763 0.341 0.435 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 603411 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 603412 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 603421 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 603422 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 603431 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 603432 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 603441 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 603442 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 603451 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 603452 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 603461 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 603462 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 603471 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 603472 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 603481 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 603482 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 603491 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 603492 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 603511 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 603512 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 603521 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 603522 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 603531 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 603532 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 0.998 0.298 1.694 8.528 0.275 0.007 2 603412 1881 1980 100 0.998 0.302 0.848 4.664 0.293 -0.005 3 603421 1900 1981 82 0.998 0.220 0.823 4.274 0.236 -0.050 4 603422 1897 1981 85 0.996 0.246 1.066 4.644 0.251 0.085 5 603431 1868 1981 114 0.999 0.248 1.311 6.864 0.226 0.112 6 603432 1872 1981 110 0.999 0.249 0.488 3.659 0.278 -0.041 7 603441 1887 1981 95 0.999 0.250 0.866 3.665 0.264 0.141 8 603442 1882 1981 100 0.997 0.315 1.829 8.438 0.277 0.338 9 603451 1818 1981 164 0.999 0.352 2.703 18.630 0.341 -0.029 10 603452 1834 1981 148 0.999 0.287 0.704 4.713 0.300 0.030 11 603461 1841 1972 132 0.999 0.261 2.111 13.999 0.208 0.325 12 603462 1835 1970 136 0.999 0.224 1.339 6.376 0.204 0.234 13 603471 1810 1981 172 0.999 0.259 1.583 8.018 0.234 0.177 14 603472 1809 1981 173 0.998 0.270 0.991 5.007 0.223 0.393 15 603481 1889 1979 91 0.997 0.214 0.772 3.994 0.206 0.144 16 603482 1889 1981 93 0.998 0.266 0.420 4.349 0.244 0.087 17 603491 1874 1979 106 0.998 0.234 0.759 4.253 0.265 0.060 18 603492 1880 1974 95 0.999 0.267 0.936 3.763 0.269 0.180 19 603511 1865 1975 111 0.998 0.280 1.520 6.423 0.229 0.209 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 0.999 0.250 2.728 17.085 0.210 0.052 21 603521 1872 1978 107 0.996 0.295 1.666 7.866 0.291 0.004 22 603522 1864 1974 111 0.998 0.281 1.847 8.993 0.246 0.105 23 603531 1868 1981 114 0.998 0.256 0.934 3.992 0.227 0.274 24 603532 1867 1978 112 0.998 0.255 1.332 7.005 0.239 0.168 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 0.998 0.266 1.303 7.050 0.251 0.125 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.001 0.032 0.628 4.117 0.035 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 0.998 0.260 1.188 5.691 0.245 0.109 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.001 0.036 0.844 3.964 0.050 0.176 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.996 0.214 0.420 3.659 0.204 -0.050 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 0.998 0.248 0.835 4.264 0.226 0.018 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 0.999 0.284 1.680 8.228 0.276 0.195 MAXIMUM VALUE 173 0.999 0.352 2.728 18.630 0.341 0.393 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.368 0.129 0.008 -0.005 3.239 0.035 0.761 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.035 SERIES 603452 AND 603492 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.761 SERIES 603441 AND 603442 95 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.03 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 15. 171. 276. RBAR 0.182 0.201 0.453 0.485 SDEV 0.208 0.268 0.186 0.137 SERR 0.066 0.069 0.014 0.008 EPS 0.671 0.815 0.951 0.958 NSS 9.2 17.5 23.3 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 0.988 0.164 1.572 8.820 0.177 -0.039 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.414 0.217 -0.030 46 127 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 1.18 1.01 1.09 2.26 25.33 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.87 0.99 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.039 -0.053 -0.010 -0.088 -0.119 0.012 -0.003 -0.026 0.008 -0.092 PACF -0.039 -0.054 -0.014 -0.093 -0.129 -0.011 -0.021 -0.042 -0.021 -0.116 95% C.L. 0.152 0.152 0.153 0.153 0.154 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.038 -0.003 -0.048 -0.156 -0.086 -0.048 -0.033 -0.018 0.049 -0.103 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.038 2 -0.038 -0.004 3 -0.038 -0.006 -0.049 4 -0.046 -0.007 -0.055 -0.160 5 -0.063 -0.013 -0.055 -0.165 -0.103 6 -0.069 -0.024 -0.059 -0.166 -0.107 -0.065 7 -0.073 -0.030 -0.069 -0.169 -0.108 -0.069 -0.061 8 -0.077 -0.035 -0.076 -0.180 -0.113 -0.071 -0.066 -0.065 9 -0.077 -0.035 -0.076 -0.180 -0.112 -0.071 -0.066 -0.065 0.003 10 -0.077 -0.044 -0.086 -0.190 -0.128 -0.097 -0.077 -0.070 -0.008 -0.143 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1282.36 1284.11 1286.11 1287.70 1285.21 1285.37 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1286.64 1287.98 1289.24 1291.24 1289.69 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 603411 0 0.000 2 603412 0 0.000 3 603421 0 0.003 4 603422 0 0.007 5 603431 0 0.013 6 603432 0 0.002 7 603441 0 0.020 8 603442 0 0.115 9 603451 0 0.001 10 603452 0 0.001 11 603461 0 0.113 12 603462 0 0.060 13 603471 0 0.031 14 603472 0 0.157 15 603481 0 0.021 16 603482 0 0.008 17 603491 0 0.004 18 603492 0 0.035 19 603511 0 0.044 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 603512 0 0.003 21 603521 0 0.000 22 603522 0 0.011 23 603531 0 0.080 24 603532 0 0.030 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.032 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.043 MEDIAN 0 0.012 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.038 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.002 UPPER HINGE 0 0.040 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.157 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.298 1.694 8.528 0.274 0.007 2 603412 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.302 0.848 4.664 0.292 -0.005 3 603421 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.220 0.823 4.274 0.236 -0.050 4 603422 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.246 1.066 4.644 0.250 0.085 5 603431 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.248 1.311 6.864 0.226 0.112 6 603432 1872 1981 110 1.000 0.249 0.488 3.659 0.278 -0.041 7 603441 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.250 0.866 3.665 0.264 0.141 8 603442 1882 1981 100 1.000 0.315 1.829 8.438 0.277 0.338 9 603451 1818 1981 164 1.000 0.352 2.703 18.630 0.340 -0.029 10 603452 1834 1981 148 1.000 0.287 0.704 4.713 0.300 0.030 11 603461 1841 1972 132 1.000 0.261 2.111 13.999 0.207 0.325 12 603462 1835 1970 136 1.000 0.224 1.339 6.376 0.203 0.234 13 603471 1810 1981 172 1.000 0.259 1.583 8.018 0.234 0.177 14 603472 1809 1981 173 1.000 0.270 0.991 5.007 0.222 0.393 15 603481 1889 1979 91 1.000 0.214 0.772 3.994 0.205 0.144 16 603482 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.266 0.420 4.349 0.243 0.087 17 603491 1874 1979 106 1.000 0.234 0.759 4.253 0.264 0.060 18 603492 1880 1974 95 1.000 0.267 0.936 3.763 0.268 0.180 19 603511 1865 1975 111 1.000 0.280 1.520 6.423 0.229 0.209 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 1.000 0.250 2.728 17.085 0.210 0.052 21 603521 1872 1978 107 1.000 0.295 1.666 7.866 0.290 0.004 22 603522 1864 1974 111 1.000 0.281 1.847 8.993 0.245 0.105 23 603531 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.256 0.934 3.992 0.226 0.274 24 603532 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.255 1.332 7.005 0.239 0.168 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.000 0.266 1.303 7.050 0.251 0.125 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.032 0.628 4.117 0.035 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 1.000 0.260 1.188 5.691 0.244 0.109 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.000 0.036 0.844 3.964 0.049 0.176 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.000 0.214 0.420 3.659 0.203 -0.050 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 1.000 0.248 0.835 4.264 0.226 0.018 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.284 1.680 8.228 0.275 0.195 MAXIMUM VALUE 173 1.000 0.352 2.728 18.630 0.340 0.393 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.368 0.129 0.008 -0.005 3.239 0.035 0.761 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.035 SERIES 603452 AND 603492 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.761 SERIES 603441 AND 603442 95 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.03 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 15. 171. 276. RBAR 0.182 0.201 0.453 0.485 SDEV 0.208 0.268 0.186 0.137 SERR 0.066 0.069 0.014 0.008 EPS 0.671 0.815 0.951 0.958 NSS 9.2 17.5 23.3 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 0.990 0.164 1.573 8.830 0.177 -0.039 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.413 0.217 -0.030 46 127 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 1.20 1.01 1.08 2.28 23.94 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.039 -0.053 -0.010 -0.088 -0.119 0.012 -0.003 -0.026 0.008 -0.092 PACF -0.039 -0.054 -0.014 -0.093 -0.130 -0.011 -0.021 -0.042 -0.021 -0.116 95% C.L. 0.152 0.152 0.153 0.153 0.154 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 0.990 0.164 1.573 8.830 0.177 -0.039 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.039 -0.053 -0.010 -0.088 -0.119 0.012 -0.003 -0.026 0.008 -0.092 PACF -0.039 -0.054 -0.014 -0.093 -0.130 -0.011 -0.021 -0.042 -0.021 -0.116 95% C.L. 0.152 0.152 0.153 0.153 0.154 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES