RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT118N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT118N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 603 1 Bannwald Sźd Tanne abst. DENSITY_MINIMUM ABAL - 603 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 1230 4620-738 1809 1981 - 603 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 603411 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1915 1919 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 603462 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 603471 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1943 1943 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 603472 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 0.269 0.025 1.279 4.504 0.082 0.212 2 603412 1881 1980 100 0.261 0.024 1.333 7.834 0.073 0.246 3 603421 1900 1981 82 0.276 0.027 2.291 12.564 0.066 0.246 4 603422 1897 1981 85 0.281 0.032 2.249 10.885 0.066 0.310 5 603431 1868 1981 114 0.246 0.025 1.289 5.330 0.070 0.486 6 603432 1872 1981 110 0.258 0.033 0.552 3.823 0.089 0.525 7 603441 1887 1981 95 0.250 0.025 0.571 3.448 0.084 0.348 8 603442 1882 1981 100 0.263 0.036 0.433 2.454 0.084 0.564 9 603451 1818 1981 164 0.272 0.044 1.271 6.222 0.121 0.310 10 603452 1834 1981 148 0.277 0.041 1.103 4.878 0.117 0.322 11 603461 1841 1972 132 0.316 0.050 5.190 43.580 0.095 0.166 12 603462 1835 1970 136 0.292 0.025 0.862 4.071 0.071 0.350 13 603471 1810 1981 172 0.309 0.042 3.090 19.344 0.096 0.242 14 603472 1809 1981 173 0.303 0.036 1.164 5.386 0.096 0.246 15 603481 1889 1979 91 0.311 0.049 1.453 5.150 0.075 0.691 16 603482 1889 1981 93 0.301 0.041 1.194 4.715 0.079 0.541 17 603491 1874 1979 106 0.298 0.033 1.446 6.940 0.076 0.427 18 603492 1880 1974 95 0.290 0.042 1.460 5.525 0.086 0.527 19 603511 1865 1975 111 0.291 0.047 1.616 5.864 0.096 0.585 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 0.268 0.034 2.561 12.026 0.093 0.207 21 603521 1872 1978 107 0.263 0.031 1.176 5.452 0.092 0.323 22 603522 1864 1974 111 0.268 0.033 1.601 6.118 0.082 0.419 23 603531 1868 1981 114 0.269 0.031 2.322 10.336 0.074 0.344 24 603532 1867 1978 112 0.269 0.031 2.350 10.980 0.071 0.347 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1809 TO 1981 173 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 0.279 0.035 1.661 8.643 0.085 0.374 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.020 0.008 1.005 8.363 0.014 0.140 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 0.274 0.033 1.390 5.695 0.083 0.345 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.029 0.013 1.100 5.814 0.021 0.260 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.246 0.024 0.433 2.454 0.066 0.166 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 95 0.266 0.029 1.170 4.797 0.073 0.246 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 0.295 0.041 2.270 10.611 0.094 0.506 MAXIMUM VALUE 172 0.316 0.050 5.190 43.580 0.121 0.691 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.472 0.168 0.010 -0.220 2.696 -0.081 0.853 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.081 SERIES 603472 AND 603481 91 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.853 SERIES 603451 AND 603452 148 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.03 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 15. 171. 276. RBAR 0.535 0.685 0.619 0.634 SDEV 0.219 0.074 0.182 0.146 SERR 0.069 0.019 0.014 0.009 EPS 0.913 0.974 0.974 0.977 NSS 9.2 17.5 23.3 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 0.283 0.028 2.084 9.836 0.072 0.334 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.080 -0.034 0.036 45 128 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 1.20 1.00 1.11 2.31 21.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.85 0.99 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 108. 26. 82. 98. 123. 173. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.332 0.250 0.181 0.159 0.121 0.088 0.084 0.120 0.133 0.139 PACF 0.332 0.158 0.067 0.062 0.026 0.005 0.023 0.071 0.065 0.055 95% C.L. 0.152 0.168 0.176 0.181 0.184 0.186 0.187 0.188 0.189 0.191 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.176 0.286 0.208 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 603411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016611 0.25960913 2 603412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028647 0.24633333 3 603421 1 0.05971809 0.13048351 0.00000000 0.27038482 4 603422 1 0.11250456 0.14674912 0.00000000 0.27256751 5 603431 1 0.05063115 0.08471967 0.00000000 0.24059096 6 603432 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00053779 0.22860718 7 603441 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026022 0.23793057 8 603442 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045971 0.24008484 9 603451 1 0.04988862 0.05249122 0.00000000 0.26673460 10 603452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027901 0.25583562 11 603461 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049170 0.28298405 12 603462 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001722 0.29153091 13 603471 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019191 0.29277101 14 603472 1 0.18127471 0.36045089 0.00000000 0.30107781 15 603481 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008775 0.30662271 16 603482 1 0.10665576 0.07493725 0.00000000 0.28613657 17 603491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030330 0.28150943 18 603492 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00067469 0.25772005 19 603511 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019042 0.28005734 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 603512 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012334 0.26119027 21 603521 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005976 0.26649797 22 603522 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009424 0.27374610 23 603531 1 0.05940228 0.01260663 0.00000000 0.23789911 24 603532 1 0.04423574 0.09118360 0.00000000 0.26514888 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.089 1.336 4.946 0.079 0.182 2 603412 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.089 2.061 11.099 0.072 0.142 3 603421 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.089 3.102 18.219 0.065 0.124 4 603422 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.092 3.594 24.007 0.064 0.029 5 603431 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.095 1.222 4.943 0.070 0.376 6 603432 1872 1981 110 1.000 0.113 1.044 6.313 0.089 0.363 7 603441 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.098 0.737 4.353 0.084 0.283 8 603442 1882 1981 100 1.000 0.130 0.888 3.838 0.084 0.485 9 603451 1818 1981 164 1.000 0.159 1.570 7.621 0.120 0.277 10 603452 1834 1981 148 1.000 0.140 1.036 4.725 0.116 0.249 11 603461 1841 1972 132 1.000 0.143 6.052 53.176 0.094 0.044 12 603462 1835 1970 136 1.000 0.094 1.494 7.255 0.074 0.317 13 603471 1810 1981 172 1.000 0.131 3.047 18.679 0.097 0.230 14 603472 1809 1981 173 1.000 0.113 1.185 5.754 0.095 0.261 15 603481 1889 1979 91 1.000 0.157 1.330 4.817 0.074 0.682 16 603482 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.115 2.229 9.676 0.079 0.349 17 603491 1874 1979 106 1.000 0.106 1.799 8.794 0.076 0.362 18 603492 1880 1974 95 1.000 0.129 1.429 5.563 0.085 0.428 19 603511 1865 1975 111 1.000 0.162 1.729 6.216 0.095 0.579 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 1.000 0.125 2.551 11.889 0.093 0.198 21 603521 1872 1978 107 1.000 0.118 1.206 5.568 0.091 0.317 22 603522 1864 1974 111 1.000 0.120 1.464 5.953 0.082 0.403 23 603531 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.102 2.590 11.402 0.074 0.185 24 603532 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.110 2.788 14.123 0.070 0.297 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.000 0.117 1.978 10.789 0.084 0.298 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.023 1.165 10.434 0.014 0.154 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 1.000 0.114 1.532 6.784 0.083 0.290 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.000 0.034 1.357 6.391 0.019 0.179 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.000 0.089 0.737 3.838 0.064 0.029 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 1.000 0.096 1.214 5.255 0.074 0.191 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.130 2.571 11.645 0.093 0.370 MAXIMUM VALUE 173 1.000 0.162 6.052 53.176 0.120 0.682 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 603411 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 603412 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 603421 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 603422 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 603431 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 603432 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 603441 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 603442 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 603451 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 603452 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 603461 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 603462 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 603471 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 603472 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 603481 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 603482 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 603491 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 603492 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 603511 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 603512 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 603521 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 603522 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 603531 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 603532 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.086 1.562 6.287 0.079 0.128 2 603412 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.085 2.773 16.177 0.073 0.064 3 603421 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.082 4.259 27.009 0.066 -0.054 4 603422 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.087 4.497 30.522 0.065 -0.083 5 603431 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.085 1.882 8.853 0.070 0.207 6 603432 1872 1981 110 1.000 0.108 1.092 6.479 0.089 0.318 7 603441 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.093 1.098 5.535 0.084 0.211 8 603442 1882 1981 100 0.999 0.106 2.000 8.406 0.085 0.231 9 603451 1818 1981 164 0.999 0.141 2.863 17.612 0.120 0.057 10 603452 1834 1981 148 1.000 0.124 2.018 11.452 0.117 0.024 11 603461 1841 1972 132 1.000 0.143 6.010 52.627 0.094 0.042 12 603462 1835 1970 136 1.000 0.085 1.564 7.026 0.075 0.169 13 603471 1810 1981 172 1.000 0.124 3.049 18.494 0.097 0.165 14 603472 1809 1981 173 1.000 0.109 1.100 5.438 0.095 0.215 15 603481 1889 1979 91 0.998 0.111 1.037 5.923 0.074 0.456 16 603482 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.107 2.423 11.359 0.079 0.257 17 603491 1874 1979 106 1.000 0.099 1.817 9.992 0.075 0.321 18 603492 1880 1974 95 1.000 0.103 2.367 14.485 0.085 0.146 19 603511 1865 1975 111 0.999 0.146 1.331 5.373 0.095 0.491 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 1.000 0.116 3.189 18.058 0.093 0.077 21 603521 1872 1978 107 0.999 0.101 1.547 8.164 0.092 0.102 22 603522 1864 1974 111 0.999 0.105 1.625 7.231 0.082 0.235 23 603531 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.096 2.756 12.930 0.074 0.112 24 603532 1867 1978 112 0.999 0.090 2.908 14.819 0.070 0.103 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.000 0.106 2.365 13.760 0.084 0.167 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.019 1.223 10.644 0.014 0.140 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 1.000 0.104 2.009 10.675 0.083 0.156 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.000 0.025 1.331 10.142 0.020 0.162 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.998 0.082 1.037 5.373 0.065 -0.083 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 0.999 0.089 1.555 6.753 0.074 0.071 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.113 2.886 16.894 0.094 0.233 MAXIMUM VALUE 173 1.000 0.146 6.010 52.627 0.120 0.491 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.579 0.117 0.007 -0.214 2.883 0.191 0.853 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.191 SERIES 603472 AND 603481 91 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.853 SERIES 603461 AND 603512 106 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.03 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 15. 171. 276. RBAR 0.563 0.720 0.657 0.685 SDEV 0.216 0.061 0.160 0.130 SERR 0.068 0.016 0.012 0.008 EPS 0.922 0.978 0.978 0.981 NSS 9.2 17.5 23.3 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 0.997 0.077 2.493 15.490 0.071 0.024 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.351 0.147 -0.085 61 112 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 1.18 1.00 1.12 2.30 14.09 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.024 -0.018 -0.067 -0.038 -0.089 -0.080 -0.106 -0.004 -0.001 0.042 PACF 0.024 -0.018 -0.066 -0.035 -0.090 -0.084 -0.115 -0.021 -0.027 0.011 95% C.L. 0.152 0.152 0.152 0.153 0.153 0.154 0.155 0.157 0.157 0.157 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.026 -0.032 -0.134 -0.034 -0.136 -0.123 -0.149 -0.075 0.061 0.025 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.026 2 0.027 -0.033 3 0.022 -0.029 -0.132 4 0.018 -0.030 -0.132 -0.029 5 0.014 -0.049 -0.136 -0.027 -0.146 6 -0.007 -0.053 -0.155 -0.034 -0.144 -0.144 7 -0.033 -0.079 -0.162 -0.062 -0.153 -0.145 -0.179 8 -0.059 -0.100 -0.184 -0.071 -0.177 -0.157 -0.184 -0.147 9 -0.062 -0.104 -0.188 -0.075 -0.179 -0.161 -0.186 -0.148 -0.022 10 -0.064 -0.117 -0.203 -0.088 -0.194 -0.167 -0.202 -0.157 -0.028 -0.084 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1036.96 1038.85 1040.66 1039.61 1041.46 1039.75 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1038.14 1034.52 1032.74 1034.65 1035.42 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 8 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.059 -0.100 -0.184 -0.071 -0.177 -0.157 -0.184 -0.147 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 11.03 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 112.40 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 8) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.059 -0.097 -0.172 -0.040 -0.135 -0.096 -0.119 -0.046 0.102 0.1033 0.071 0.037 0.029 -0.001 -0.023 -0.047 -0.048 -0.027 -0.005 0.0088 0.016 0.021 0.020 0.014 0.003 -0.006 -0.011 -0.012 -0.009 -.0054 -0.001 0.003 0.006 0.006 0.005 0.002 0.000 -0.002 -0.003 -.0031 -0.002 -0.001 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 603411 8 0.107 0.101 -0.057 -0.084 0.069 0.020 -0.017 -0.176 -0.154 2 603412 8 0.063 0.060 -0.132 -0.076 0.061 -0.090 -0.011 -0.157 -0.059 3 603421 8 0.032 -0.062 -0.028 -0.082 -0.007 -0.135 -0.059 0.001 -0.068 4 603422 8 0.076 -0.110 0.009 -0.035 -0.049 -0.097 -0.063 -0.098 -0.190 5 603431 8 0.138 0.220 -0.119 -0.069 0.015 -0.146 -0.018 -0.221 0.085 6 603432 8 0.211 0.312 0.038 -0.169 0.010 -0.060 -0.033 -0.173 0.097 7 603441 8 0.149 0.138 -0.028 -0.129 -0.032 -0.182 -0.048 -0.159 -0.160 8 603442 8 0.133 0.194 -0.087 -0.134 -0.013 -0.156 -0.056 -0.164 -0.055 9 603451 8 0.060 0.039 0.039 -0.083 -0.031 -0.107 -0.082 -0.136 0.071 10 603452 8 0.021 0.015 0.008 0.034 0.006 -0.076 -0.082 -0.063 0.040 11 603461 8 0.086 -0.009 -0.032 -0.152 -0.010 -0.092 -0.206 -0.127 -0.057 12 603462 8 0.076 0.158 -0.045 -0.130 0.000 -0.079 -0.122 -0.053 0.002 13 603471 8 0.054 0.179 -0.019 0.029 0.089 -0.078 0.005 -0.092 0.076 14 603472 8 0.084 0.192 0.109 -0.006 0.092 -0.025 0.103 -0.049 -0.012 15 603481 8 0.303 0.366 0.160 -0.111 -0.006 0.069 -0.019 -0.076 -0.222 16 603482 8 0.186 0.192 0.092 -0.138 -0.051 0.015 -0.142 -0.058 -0.215 17 603491 8 0.157 0.341 0.070 -0.103 -0.025 0.148 -0.110 -0.035 0.065 18 603492 8 0.062 0.157 0.001 0.011 -0.047 0.126 -0.034 -0.141 0.027 19 603511 8 0.329 0.413 0.135 -0.001 0.181 -0.058 -0.113 -0.098 -0.008 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 603512 8 0.077 0.060 -0.080 -0.145 0.038 -0.134 -0.063 -0.159 -0.055 21 603521 8 0.065 0.098 -0.072 -0.094 -0.051 -0.028 -0.032 0.012 -0.192 22 603522 8 0.174 0.188 0.152 -0.015 0.230 -0.054 0.065 -0.087 -0.178 23 603531 8 0.157 0.032 0.134 -0.099 -0.175 -0.076 -0.081 -0.229 -0.029 24 603532 8 0.043 0.096 0.035 -0.096 -0.009 -0.064 -0.088 -0.047 -0.029 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 8 0.119 0.141 0.012 -0.078 0.012 -0.057 -0.055 -0.108 -0.051 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.080 0.131 0.086 0.060 0.081 0.083 0.064 0.065 0.102 MEDIAN 8 0.085 0.148 0.005 -0.089 -0.007 -0.076 -0.058 -0.098 -0.042 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.094 0.144 0.132 0.104 0.082 0.075 0.067 0.104 0.190 MINIMUM VALUE 8 0.021 -0.110 -0.132 -0.169 -0.175 -0.182 -0.206 -0.229 -0.222 LOWER HINGE 8 0.063 0.050 -0.051 -0.129 -0.032 -0.102 -0.085 -0.159 -0.157 UPPER HINGE 8 0.157 0.193 0.081 -0.025 0.050 -0.027 -0.019 -0.055 0.034 MAXIMUM VALUE 8 0.329 0.413 0.160 0.034 0.230 0.148 0.103 0.012 0.097 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.081 1.564 7.087 0.081 0.009 2 603412 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.083 2.729 16.538 0.075 -0.001 3 603421 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.080 4.442 27.836 0.063 0.002 4 603422 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.084 4.782 33.314 0.062 -0.023 5 603431 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.079 1.951 9.630 0.076 -0.011 6 603432 1872 1981 110 1.000 0.098 1.592 8.310 0.093 -0.019 7 603441 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.086 0.982 6.062 0.086 0.000 8 603442 1882 1981 100 1.000 0.098 1.417 7.552 0.094 -0.003 9 603451 1818 1981 164 1.000 0.137 2.828 18.092 0.121 0.000 10 603452 1834 1981 148 1.000 0.122 2.028 11.452 0.117 0.002 11 603461 1841 1972 132 1.000 0.137 6.022 54.035 0.090 0.003 12 603462 1835 1970 136 1.000 0.082 1.390 6.521 0.081 0.001 13 603471 1810 1981 172 1.000 0.120 3.355 21.796 0.103 -0.004 14 603472 1809 1981 173 1.000 0.105 1.195 5.487 0.104 0.001 15 603481 1889 1979 91 1.000 0.093 2.088 12.624 0.084 0.011 16 603482 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.097 2.516 13.601 0.088 -0.018 17 603491 1874 1979 106 1.000 0.091 1.659 9.297 0.089 -0.007 18 603492 1880 1974 95 1.000 0.100 2.487 16.067 0.088 -0.001 19 603511 1865 1975 111 1.000 0.120 1.396 8.159 0.110 0.018 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 1.000 0.111 3.339 19.839 0.093 0.004 21 603521 1872 1978 107 1.000 0.097 1.532 8.388 0.095 -0.014 22 603522 1864 1974 111 1.000 0.096 2.102 10.399 0.086 0.012 23 603531 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.088 2.387 11.892 0.079 -0.007 24 603532 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.088 2.872 15.002 0.075 0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.000 0.099 2.444 14.958 0.089 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.017 1.231 10.864 0.015 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 1.000 0.096 2.095 11.672 0.088 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.000 0.023 1.302 9.080 0.014 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.000 0.079 0.982 5.487 0.062 -0.023 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 1.000 0.085 1.548 8.235 0.080 -0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.108 2.850 17.315 0.094 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 173 1.000 0.137 6.022 54.035 0.121 0.018 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.594 0.093 0.006 0.060 2.880 0.330 0.854 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.330 SERIES 603472 AND 603481 91 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.854 SERIES 603451 AND 603452 148 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.03 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 15. 171. 276. RBAR 0.588 0.715 0.689 0.685 SDEV 0.214 0.072 0.115 0.119 SERR 0.068 0.019 0.009 0.007 EPS 0.929 0.978 0.981 0.981 NSS 9.2 17.5 23.3 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 0.999 0.074 2.745 18.393 0.072 -0.150 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.387 0.163 -0.104 50 123 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.50 1.01 1.09 1.59 9.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.149 -0.051 -0.031 -0.035 -0.038 -0.035 0.007 -0.001 -0.011 -0.018 PACF -0.149 -0.074 -0.051 -0.054 -0.059 -0.060 -0.020 -0.017 -0.025 -0.034 95% C.L. 0.152 0.155 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.157 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.028 -0.149 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 -0.001 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.012 -0.045 -0.050 PACF -0.003 -0.001 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.012 -0.045 -0.050 95% C.L. 0.152 0.152 0.152 0.152 0.152 0.152 0.152 0.152 0.152 0.152 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 8 0.002 -0.003 -0.001 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.013 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 0.999 0.077 2.600 16.661 0.069 0.038 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.037 -0.020 -0.127 -0.040 -0.146 -0.124 -0.143 -0.061 0.076 0.085 PACF 0.037 -0.022 -0.126 -0.032 -0.151 -0.138 -0.165 -0.122 0.008 -0.004 95% C.L. 0.152 0.152 0.152 0.155 0.155 0.158 0.160 0.163 0.164 0.165 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.19 MINUTES