RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT118L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT118L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 603 1 Bannwald Sźd Tanne abst. WIDTH_LATE ABAL - 603 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 1230 4620-738 1809 1981 - 603 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 12 603462 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 603471 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1943 1943 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 603472 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 0.254 0.171 1.217 5.221 0.389 0.665 2 603412 1881 1980 100 0.200 0.149 1.642 6.860 0.344 0.729 3 603421 1900 1981 82 0.478 0.241 0.802 4.402 0.255 0.754 4 603422 1897 1981 85 0.557 0.260 0.547 4.977 0.289 0.595 5 603431 1868 1981 114 0.268 0.168 1.225 3.756 0.281 0.804 6 603432 1872 1981 110 0.302 0.146 0.301 2.122 0.316 0.620 7 603441 1887 1981 95 0.264 0.123 0.538 3.178 0.283 0.643 8 603442 1882 1981 100 0.294 0.182 2.238 11.427 0.296 0.727 9 603451 1818 1981 164 0.245 0.138 0.669 3.364 0.387 0.556 10 603452 1834 1981 148 0.176 0.090 0.370 2.658 0.381 0.604 11 603461 1841 1972 132 0.189 0.165 1.565 4.995 0.271 0.845 12 603462 1835 1970 136 0.223 0.177 1.294 3.752 0.263 0.902 13 603471 1810 1981 172 0.186 0.111 0.839 3.147 0.255 0.816 14 603472 1809 1981 173 0.251 0.170 1.268 4.672 0.286 0.770 15 603481 1889 1979 91 0.287 0.124 -0.072 2.999 0.331 0.511 16 603482 1889 1981 93 0.363 0.191 0.511 3.986 0.324 0.714 17 603491 1874 1979 106 0.292 0.216 2.044 7.887 0.303 0.805 18 603492 1880 1974 95 0.406 0.298 1.624 5.995 0.297 0.799 19 603511 1865 1975 111 0.367 0.329 2.197 8.138 0.341 0.831 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 0.405 0.375 1.955 6.991 0.329 0.847 21 603521 1872 1978 107 0.350 0.272 1.750 5.415 0.326 0.799 22 603522 1864 1974 111 0.342 0.219 0.842 2.935 0.283 0.861 23 603531 1868 1981 114 0.379 0.194 0.129 2.593 0.290 0.713 24 603532 1867 1978 112 0.377 0.168 0.758 4.616 0.310 0.575 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1809 TO 1981 173 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 0.311 0.195 1.094 4.837 0.310 0.729 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.095 0.071 0.673 2.182 0.039 0.109 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 0.293 0.174 1.030 4.509 0.300 0.741 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.124 0.083 1.091 2.543 0.047 0.179 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.176 0.090 -0.072 2.122 0.255 0.511 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 0.248 0.147 0.542 3.162 0.283 0.631 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 0.372 0.230 1.633 5.705 0.330 0.810 MAXIMUM VALUE 172 0.557 0.375 2.238 11.427 0.389 0.902 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.490 0.211 0.013 -0.504 2.933 -0.215 0.957 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.215 SERIES 603422 AND 603461 76 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.957 SERIES 603511 AND 603512 107 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.03 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 15. 171. 276. RBAR 0.224 0.292 0.426 0.329 SDEV 0.202 0.242 0.284 0.249 SERR 0.064 0.062 0.022 0.015 EPS 0.725 0.879 0.945 0.922 NSS 9.2 17.5 23.3 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 0.295 0.118 0.008 2.899 0.232 0.713 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.554 0.368 0.023 67 106 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.87 2.25 1.00 1.14 3.39 46.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.15 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 108. 26. 82. 98. 123. 173. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.709 0.654 0.660 0.588 0.558 0.542 0.499 0.506 0.486 0.453 PACF 0.709 0.305 0.268 0.034 0.050 0.052 0.002 0.091 0.029 -0.002 95% C.L. 0.152 0.215 0.257 0.294 0.320 0.342 0.361 0.376 0.392 0.406 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.608 0.390 0.175 0.302 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 603411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00414948 0.46304849 2 603412 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 603421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00234031 0.57553750 4 603422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00204319 0.64515126 5 603431 1 0.59404200 0.03555498 0.00000000 0.12687200 6 603432 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00338863 0.49052376 7 603441 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00336226 0.42570436 8 603442 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00306595 0.44883031 9 603451 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00156960 0.37437004 10 603452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00143816 0.28308880 11 603461 1 0.61274010 0.03159264 0.00000000 0.04647881 12 603462 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 603471 1 0.36560559 0.01087356 0.00000000 0.02085953 14 603472 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00225662 0.44604689 15 603481 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00184902 0.37252748 16 603482 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00391782 0.54725575 17 603491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00445520 0.53014553 18 603492 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00801960 0.79073012 19 603511 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 603512 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 603521 1 0.77259111 0.02793118 0.00000000 0.10792764 22 603522 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00587153 0.67060769 23 603531 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00261222 0.52888680 24 603532 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00245503 0.51576257 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 0.972 0.458 0.752 3.273 0.386 0.476 2 603412 1881 1980 100 0.996 0.365 0.519 3.139 0.348 0.176 3 603421 1900 1981 82 0.997 0.531 1.344 5.367 0.252 0.769 4 603422 1897 1981 85 0.999 0.497 1.095 6.094 0.285 0.605 5 603431 1868 1981 114 1.001 0.361 2.140 10.294 0.280 0.393 6 603432 1872 1981 110 0.997 0.346 0.895 4.703 0.313 0.279 7 603441 1887 1981 95 0.989 0.306 1.223 6.045 0.281 0.267 8 603442 1882 1981 100 0.979 0.542 3.330 17.840 0.293 0.644 9 603451 1818 1981 164 0.977 0.484 1.035 3.918 0.385 0.476 10 603452 1834 1981 148 0.980 0.370 0.558 3.956 0.379 0.243 11 603461 1841 1972 132 1.004 0.337 0.855 4.552 0.272 0.372 12 603462 1835 1970 136 1.000 0.321 0.762 4.091 0.269 0.447 13 603471 1810 1981 172 0.998 0.413 1.388 6.526 0.254 0.626 14 603472 1809 1981 173 1.019 0.531 1.537 6.334 0.287 0.679 15 603481 1889 1979 91 0.994 0.417 -0.082 2.688 0.328 0.494 16 603482 1889 1981 93 0.978 0.469 0.502 4.530 0.320 0.670 17 603491 1874 1979 106 1.022 0.532 1.746 6.478 0.302 0.640 18 603492 1880 1974 95 1.036 0.421 0.882 3.793 0.299 0.538 19 603511 1865 1975 111 0.990 0.455 1.378 5.313 0.338 0.576 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 0.983 0.397 1.258 5.594 0.325 0.524 21 603521 1872 1978 107 0.989 0.486 1.380 5.410 0.320 0.612 22 603522 1864 1974 111 1.062 0.400 1.437 5.766 0.278 0.486 23 603531 1868 1981 114 0.988 0.502 0.613 3.317 0.287 0.732 24 603532 1867 1978 112 0.994 0.394 0.551 3.419 0.307 0.508 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 0.998 0.431 1.129 5.518 0.308 0.510 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.020 0.073 0.673 3.083 0.038 0.159 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 0.995 0.419 1.065 5.008 0.301 0.516 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.015 0.124 0.702 2.214 0.046 0.213 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.972 0.306 -0.082 2.688 0.252 0.176 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 0.985 0.367 0.683 3.856 0.280 0.420 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.491 1.384 6.069 0.327 0.633 MAXIMUM VALUE 173 1.062 0.542 3.330 17.840 0.386 0.769 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 603411 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 603412 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 603421 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 603422 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 603431 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 603432 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 603441 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 603442 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 603451 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 603452 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 603461 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 603462 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 603471 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 603472 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 603481 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 603482 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 603491 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 603492 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 603511 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 603512 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 603521 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 603522 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 603531 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 603532 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 0.988 0.420 1.316 6.665 0.386 0.170 2 603412 1881 1980 100 0.999 0.362 0.521 3.188 0.348 0.152 3 603421 1900 1981 82 0.984 0.343 0.638 3.760 0.259 0.536 4 603422 1897 1981 85 0.965 0.404 0.751 4.625 0.280 0.522 5 603431 1868 1981 114 0.994 0.312 1.619 8.062 0.279 0.249 6 603432 1872 1981 110 0.996 0.327 0.830 4.626 0.312 0.214 7 603441 1887 1981 95 0.998 0.280 0.969 5.151 0.281 0.144 8 603442 1882 1981 100 0.995 0.398 2.458 13.314 0.293 0.476 9 603451 1818 1981 164 0.995 0.370 0.790 3.903 0.385 0.123 10 603452 1834 1981 148 0.997 0.331 0.299 3.668 0.379 0.028 11 603461 1841 1972 132 0.993 0.285 0.488 3.867 0.272 0.225 12 603462 1835 1970 136 0.998 0.313 0.845 4.513 0.269 0.427 13 603471 1810 1981 172 0.989 0.370 1.445 7.497 0.254 0.548 14 603472 1809 1981 173 0.983 0.435 1.273 5.253 0.286 0.571 15 603481 1889 1979 91 0.984 0.372 0.379 3.896 0.324 0.337 16 603482 1889 1981 93 0.973 0.410 0.464 3.918 0.319 0.595 17 603491 1874 1979 106 0.991 0.461 1.431 5.002 0.300 0.597 18 603492 1880 1974 95 0.997 0.377 0.690 3.314 0.298 0.521 19 603511 1865 1975 111 0.993 0.430 1.225 4.916 0.337 0.525 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 0.990 0.362 1.236 5.936 0.325 0.434 21 603521 1872 1978 107 0.984 0.420 1.074 4.083 0.319 0.542 22 603522 1864 1974 111 0.997 0.288 0.169 2.629 0.278 0.235 23 603531 1868 1981 114 0.984 0.408 0.967 4.326 0.288 0.538 24 603532 1867 1978 112 0.989 0.356 0.718 4.223 0.304 0.376 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 0.990 0.368 0.941 5.014 0.307 0.378 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.008 0.051 0.507 2.195 0.038 0.180 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 0.992 0.370 0.837 4.419 0.299 0.431 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.012 0.080 0.675 1.321 0.045 0.317 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.965 0.280 0.169 2.629 0.254 0.028 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 0.984 0.329 0.579 3.881 0.280 0.219 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 0.996 0.409 1.254 5.202 0.325 0.537 MAXIMUM VALUE 173 0.999 0.461 2.458 13.314 0.386 0.597 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.293 0.157 0.009 0.360 3.241 -0.059 0.823 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.059 SERIES 603512 AND 603521 102 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.823 SERIES 603511 AND 603512 107 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.03 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 15. 171. 276. RBAR 0.227 0.401 0.294 0.318 SDEV 0.200 0.184 0.219 0.186 SERR 0.063 0.047 0.017 0.011 EPS 0.729 0.921 0.907 0.918 NSS 9.2 17.5 23.3 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 0.965 0.200 0.244 3.810 0.208 0.207 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.350 0.217 0.055 48 125 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 1.08 1.01 1.12 2.20 25.58 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.205 0.174 0.112 -0.047 -0.173 -0.079 -0.234 -0.035 -0.103 -0.034 PACF 0.205 0.137 0.057 -0.107 -0.185 -0.006 -0.166 0.083 -0.074 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.152 0.158 0.163 0.164 0.165 0.169 0.170 0.177 0.177 0.179 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.063 0.178 0.137 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.215 0.199 0.028 -0.116 -0.283 -0.099 -0.228 -0.009 -0.062 -0.042 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.215 2 0.180 0.160 3 0.188 0.168 -0.045 4 0.180 0.194 -0.016 -0.156 5 0.141 0.190 0.034 -0.110 -0.255 6 0.152 0.195 0.032 -0.119 -0.261 0.046 7 0.158 0.162 0.017 -0.115 -0.236 0.065 -0.129 8 0.167 0.157 0.033 -0.107 -0.238 0.054 -0.139 0.067 9 0.172 0.146 0.037 -0.126 -0.246 0.057 -0.127 0.081 -0.081 10 0.163 0.155 0.023 -0.120 -0.274 0.043 -0.122 0.097 -0.062 -0.113 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1358.39 1352.23 1349.75 1351.40 1349.12 1339.48 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1341.12 1340.23 1341.44 1342.30 1342.09 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.180 0.160 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 7.05 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 107.58 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.180 0.192 0.064 0.042 0.018 0.010 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.0006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 603411 2 0.074 0.200 -0.053 2 603412 2 0.027 0.144 0.057 3 603421 2 0.397 0.409 0.275 4 603422 2 0.359 0.370 0.300 5 603431 2 0.232 0.157 0.372 6 603432 2 0.196 0.135 0.372 7 603441 2 0.027 0.137 0.058 8 603442 2 0.230 0.488 -0.021 9 603451 2 0.108 0.097 0.225 10 603452 2 0.076 0.021 0.273 11 603461 2 0.088 0.182 0.195 12 603462 2 0.204 0.369 0.145 13 603471 2 0.363 0.411 0.251 14 603472 2 0.337 0.505 0.117 15 603481 2 0.148 0.293 0.152 16 603482 2 0.395 0.506 0.166 17 603491 2 0.423 0.485 0.193 18 603492 2 0.311 0.492 0.079 19 603511 2 0.298 0.467 0.127 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 603512 2 0.219 0.366 0.159 21 603521 2 0.347 0.419 0.242 22 603522 2 0.082 0.205 0.155 23 603531 2 0.329 0.524 0.079 24 603532 2 0.158 0.369 0.050 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.226 0.323 0.165 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.128 0.157 0.111 MEDIAN 2 0.225 0.369 0.157 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.244 0.306 0.167 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.027 0.021 -0.053 LOWER HINGE 2 0.098 0.170 0.079 UPPER HINGE 2 0.342 0.476 0.246 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.423 0.524 0.372 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.412 1.468 7.765 0.417 0.035 2 603412 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.357 0.489 3.110 0.381 -0.001 3 603421 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.272 0.410 3.787 0.296 0.081 4 603422 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.327 1.366 7.127 0.324 -0.034 5 603431 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.281 1.057 5.949 0.281 0.082 6 603432 1872 1981 110 1.000 0.297 0.602 3.730 0.307 0.056 7 603441 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.276 1.018 5.133 0.302 0.000 8 603442 1882 1981 100 1.000 0.350 2.186 12.838 0.374 -0.001 9 603451 1818 1981 164 1.000 0.357 0.939 4.387 0.399 -0.049 10 603452 1834 1981 148 1.000 0.318 0.368 3.984 0.360 -0.006 11 603461 1841 1972 132 1.000 0.272 0.475 4.402 0.293 -0.006 12 603462 1835 1970 136 1.000 0.279 0.848 5.248 0.314 -0.001 13 603471 1810 1981 172 1.000 0.300 1.059 8.344 0.317 -0.042 14 603472 1809 1981 173 1.000 0.355 1.240 7.260 0.351 -0.006 15 603481 1889 1979 91 1.000 0.345 0.525 4.540 0.369 -0.003 16 603482 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.321 0.454 3.479 0.372 0.030 17 603491 1874 1979 106 1.000 0.361 1.247 5.840 0.361 0.043 18 603492 1880 1974 95 1.000 0.316 0.558 2.954 0.364 0.016 19 603511 1865 1975 111 1.000 0.360 0.755 3.741 0.402 0.006 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 1.000 0.322 0.847 4.194 0.373 -0.016 21 603521 1872 1978 107 1.000 0.338 0.932 5.100 0.373 0.007 22 603522 1864 1974 111 1.000 0.275 0.347 3.099 0.298 0.004 23 603531 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.334 1.131 5.345 0.342 0.028 24 603532 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.328 0.964 5.167 0.345 0.015 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.000 0.323 0.887 5.272 0.346 0.010 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.036 0.432 2.196 0.038 0.033 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 1.000 0.324 0.890 4.820 0.355 0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.000 0.063 0.588 2.131 0.063 0.035 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.000 0.272 0.347 2.954 0.281 -0.049 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 1.000 0.289 0.507 3.764 0.311 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.352 1.095 5.895 0.373 0.029 MAXIMUM VALUE 173 1.000 0.412 2.186 12.838 0.417 0.082 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.354 0.122 0.007 0.277 3.728 0.000 0.812 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.000 SERIES 603422 AND 603462 74 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.812 SERIES 603511 AND 603512 107 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.03 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 15. 171. 276. RBAR 0.263 0.478 0.384 0.398 SDEV 0.167 0.142 0.176 0.151 SERR 0.053 0.037 0.013 0.009 EPS 0.766 0.941 0.936 0.941 NSS 9.2 17.5 23.3 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 0.979 0.193 0.217 3.543 0.238 -0.121 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.389 0.197 0.030 47 126 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.83 1.00 1.08 1.91 266.96 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.120 -0.055 0.099 -0.078 -0.135 0.000 -0.153 0.075 -0.087 0.038 PACF -0.120 -0.071 0.085 -0.061 -0.145 -0.052 -0.171 0.051 -0.116 0.022 95% C.L. 0.152 0.154 0.155 0.156 0.157 0.160 0.160 0.163 0.164 0.165 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.019 -0.121 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.006 0.006 0.066 -0.090 -0.156 -0.041 -0.165 0.047 -0.086 0.031 PACF 0.006 0.005 0.066 -0.092 -0.157 -0.044 -0.156 0.061 -0.114 0.021 95% C.L. 0.152 0.152 0.152 0.153 0.154 0.158 0.158 0.162 0.162 0.163 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.004 0.006 0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 0.979 0.198 0.174 3.589 0.201 0.222 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.221 0.186 0.079 -0.083 -0.184 -0.107 -0.209 -0.021 -0.116 -0.002 PACF 0.221 0.144 0.013 -0.136 -0.173 -0.012 -0.128 0.078 -0.109 0.012 95% C.L. 0.152 0.159 0.164 0.165 0.166 0.171 0.172 0.178 0.178 0.180 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.069 0.189 0.144 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 2.98 MINUTES