RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT118E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT118E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 603 1 Bannwald Sźd Tanne abst. WIDTH_EARLY ABAL - 603 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 1230 4620-738 1809 1981 - 603 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 12 603462 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 603471 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1943 1943 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 603472 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 0.977 0.428 -0.025 3.361 0.229 0.685 2 603412 1881 1980 100 0.900 0.420 0.280 3.722 0.222 0.703 3 603421 1900 1981 82 1.413 0.592 -0.275 2.898 0.241 0.698 4 603422 1897 1981 85 1.563 0.523 -1.060 3.717 0.211 0.670 5 603431 1868 1981 114 1.274 0.488 -0.112 2.398 0.196 0.763 6 603432 1872 1981 110 1.332 0.685 0.063 1.980 0.197 0.875 7 603441 1887 1981 95 1.075 0.532 0.352 2.536 0.236 0.786 8 603442 1882 1981 100 1.108 0.589 0.009 1.890 0.259 0.794 9 603451 1818 1981 164 1.108 0.565 0.080 2.309 0.319 0.709 10 603452 1834 1981 148 0.823 0.452 0.265 2.482 0.338 0.669 11 603461 1841 1972 132 0.611 0.482 1.300 3.989 0.286 0.876 12 603462 1835 1970 136 0.709 0.528 1.051 2.916 0.261 0.930 13 603471 1810 1981 172 0.516 0.346 0.921 3.368 0.312 0.827 14 603472 1809 1981 173 0.632 0.379 0.510 2.521 0.291 0.778 15 603481 1889 1979 91 0.862 0.401 -0.171 3.254 0.276 0.724 16 603482 1889 1981 93 1.026 0.456 -0.259 3.033 0.272 0.727 17 603491 1874 1979 106 0.963 0.656 1.546 6.407 0.258 0.855 18 603492 1880 1974 95 1.173 0.796 1.237 5.856 0.284 0.815 19 603511 1865 1975 111 1.221 0.939 1.469 5.143 0.286 0.865 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 1.368 0.987 1.347 4.894 0.300 0.842 21 603521 1872 1978 107 1.222 0.596 0.454 3.282 0.270 0.808 22 603522 1864 1974 111 1.250 0.620 0.521 2.637 0.246 0.813 23 603531 1868 1981 114 1.399 0.582 -0.636 2.753 0.255 0.741 24 603532 1867 1978 112 1.436 0.572 -0.066 3.888 0.266 0.610 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1809 TO 1981 173 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.082 0.567 0.367 3.385 0.263 0.773 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.286 0.160 0.693 1.173 0.037 0.081 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 1.108 0.548 0.273 3.143 0.264 0.782 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.422 0.154 1.075 1.277 0.047 0.128 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.516 0.346 -1.060 1.890 0.196 0.610 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 0.881 0.454 -0.089 2.528 0.238 0.706 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.303 0.608 0.986 3.805 0.286 0.834 MAXIMUM VALUE 172 1.563 0.987 1.546 6.407 0.338 0.930 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.646 0.167 0.010 -1.064 5.014 -0.152 0.956 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.152 SERIES 603421 AND 603472 82 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.956 SERIES 603511 AND 603512 107 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.03 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 15. 171. 276. RBAR 0.360 0.417 0.568 0.541 SDEV 0.252 0.250 0.195 0.216 SERR 0.080 0.065 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.837 0.926 0.968 0.966 NSS 9.2 17.5 23.3 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 1.059 0.401 -0.128 3.033 0.221 0.731 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.610 0.351 0.065 35 138 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.67 1.01 1.07 1.74 6.08 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.13 0.00 0.85 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 108. 26. 82. 98. 123. 173. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.727 0.670 0.617 0.567 0.523 0.540 0.487 0.523 0.470 0.478 PACF 0.727 0.302 0.133 0.059 0.030 0.154 -0.016 0.154 -0.047 0.071 95% C.L. 0.152 0.218 0.261 0.293 0.317 0.337 0.356 0.371 0.388 0.401 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.604 0.441 0.246 0.165 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 603411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01046061 1.50526059 2 603412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01130213 1.47035754 3 603421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01175129 1.90084910 4 603422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00852668 1.92923534 5 603431 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01131706 1.92511725 6 603432 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01904952 2.38952136 7 603441 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01670311 1.87627542 8 603442 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01520030 1.87551510 9 603451 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00744734 1.72245395 10 603452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00673951 1.32479596 11 603461 1 1.79184043 0.02953191 0.00000000 0.16705216 12 603462 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 603471 1 1.15647840 0.01262118 0.00000000 0.04452772 14 603472 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00589893 1.14234996 15 603481 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00995174 1.32019782 16 603482 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00913327 1.45507014 17 603491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01542761 1.78830194 18 603492 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02263970 2.25944233 19 603511 1 2.89961648 0.01969929 0.00000000 0.05561039 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 603512 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02518897 2.72842884 21 603521 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01428633 1.99323750 22 603522 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01573245 2.13137746 23 603531 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00794775 1.85594320 24 603532 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00983083 1.99160230 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 0.983 0.332 -0.469 3.003 0.227 0.607 2 603412 1881 1980 100 0.980 0.304 -0.703 3.761 0.218 0.549 3 603421 1900 1981 82 0.992 0.406 0.155 2.643 0.238 0.727 4 603422 1897 1981 85 0.997 0.337 -0.569 3.253 0.209 0.695 5 603431 1868 1981 114 0.994 0.275 0.334 3.528 0.193 0.604 6 603432 1872 1981 110 0.987 0.263 -0.215 2.989 0.198 0.601 7 603441 1887 1981 95 0.997 0.258 0.459 4.588 0.233 0.407 8 603442 1882 1981 100 0.967 0.353 -0.001 2.319 0.255 0.628 9 603451 1818 1981 164 0.975 0.424 0.419 2.951 0.316 0.622 10 603452 1834 1981 148 0.967 0.426 0.393 2.624 0.336 0.552 11 603461 1841 1972 132 0.994 0.374 0.801 4.596 0.283 0.511 12 603462 1835 1970 136 1.000 0.295 -0.010 3.852 0.285 0.342 13 603471 1810 1981 172 0.997 0.417 0.346 2.963 0.316 0.616 14 603472 1809 1981 173 1.047 0.556 1.430 5.906 0.288 0.712 15 603481 1889 1979 91 0.979 0.402 -0.250 3.868 0.272 0.630 16 603482 1889 1981 93 0.986 0.401 -0.359 2.998 0.269 0.680 17 603491 1874 1979 106 1.013 0.486 1.655 5.847 0.252 0.746 18 603492 1880 1974 95 0.975 0.324 0.654 5.152 0.276 0.479 19 603511 1865 1975 111 1.013 0.503 0.954 4.077 0.281 0.740 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 1.079 0.422 0.636 3.787 0.300 0.579 21 603521 1872 1978 107 0.993 0.338 -0.566 3.046 0.267 0.635 22 603522 1864 1974 111 0.998 0.273 -0.230 3.623 0.241 0.416 23 603531 1868 1981 114 0.993 0.405 -0.288 3.036 0.253 0.744 24 603532 1867 1978 112 0.993 0.347 -0.367 3.297 0.263 0.562 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 0.996 0.372 0.175 3.654 0.261 0.599 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.024 0.078 0.629 0.964 0.037 0.110 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 0.993 0.364 0.077 3.413 0.265 0.611 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.016 0.106 0.871 0.979 0.048 0.137 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.967 0.258 -0.703 2.319 0.193 0.342 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 0.981 0.314 -0.324 2.993 0.236 0.550 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 0.997 0.420 0.547 3.973 0.284 0.687 MAXIMUM VALUE 173 1.079 0.556 1.655 5.906 0.336 0.746 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 603411 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 603412 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 603421 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 603422 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 603431 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 603432 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 603441 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 603442 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 603451 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 603452 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 603461 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 603462 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 603471 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 603472 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 603481 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 603482 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 603491 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 603492 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 603511 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 603512 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 603521 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 603522 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 603531 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 603532 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 0.986 0.248 -0.165 4.043 0.228 0.324 2 603412 1881 1980 100 0.988 0.259 -0.256 4.012 0.217 0.405 3 603421 1900 1981 82 0.983 0.258 0.101 3.538 0.240 0.360 4 603422 1897 1981 85 0.981 0.259 -0.229 3.506 0.203 0.538 5 603431 1868 1981 114 0.993 0.226 0.032 3.474 0.193 0.451 6 603432 1872 1981 110 0.994 0.237 -0.258 3.406 0.199 0.502 7 603441 1887 1981 95 0.997 0.238 0.131 4.361 0.232 0.312 8 603442 1882 1981 100 0.992 0.276 -0.010 3.131 0.255 0.418 9 603451 1818 1981 164 0.991 0.302 0.034 3.100 0.315 0.274 10 603452 1834 1981 148 0.996 0.313 0.204 2.954 0.335 0.164 11 603461 1841 1972 132 0.993 0.313 0.646 4.778 0.283 0.358 12 603462 1835 1970 136 0.998 0.289 0.005 3.867 0.284 0.313 13 603471 1810 1981 172 0.987 0.379 0.297 3.189 0.316 0.535 14 603472 1809 1981 173 0.983 0.402 0.373 2.816 0.289 0.566 15 603481 1889 1979 91 0.973 0.351 -0.222 3.575 0.268 0.600 16 603482 1889 1981 93 0.981 0.324 -0.039 3.349 0.266 0.583 17 603491 1874 1979 106 0.992 0.436 1.415 5.164 0.252 0.707 18 603492 1880 1974 95 0.998 0.319 0.796 5.670 0.275 0.442 19 603511 1865 1975 111 0.985 0.432 0.652 3.900 0.281 0.659 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 0.991 0.305 0.663 6.355 0.299 0.392 21 603521 1872 1978 107 0.986 0.301 -0.545 3.110 0.264 0.563 22 603522 1864 1974 111 0.998 0.268 0.005 4.116 0.241 0.394 23 603531 1868 1981 114 0.976 0.318 -0.227 3.165 0.252 0.626 24 603532 1867 1978 112 0.984 0.291 -0.165 3.665 0.261 0.402 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 0.989 0.306 0.135 3.843 0.260 0.454 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.007 0.059 0.438 0.882 0.037 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 0.989 0.302 0.018 3.556 0.263 0.430 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.010 0.063 0.529 0.903 0.048 0.205 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.973 0.226 -0.545 2.816 0.193 0.164 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 0.984 0.259 -0.194 3.177 0.236 0.359 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 0.994 0.321 0.335 4.079 0.284 0.564 MAXIMUM VALUE 173 0.998 0.436 1.415 6.355 0.335 0.707 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.473 0.160 0.010 -0.373 3.158 -0.086 0.855 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.086 SERIES 603421 AND 603472 82 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.855 SERIES 603441 AND 603442 95 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.03 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 15. 171. 276. RBAR 0.431 0.518 0.515 0.513 SDEV 0.243 0.163 0.198 0.206 SERR 0.077 0.042 0.015 0.012 EPS 0.874 0.950 0.961 0.962 NSS 9.2 17.5 23.3 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 0.982 0.208 -0.263 3.801 0.217 0.263 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.192 0.081 0.126 58 115 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.41 1.00 1.07 1.48 5.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.262 0.149 0.076 -0.016 -0.145 -0.016 -0.136 0.018 -0.092 -0.019 PACF 0.262 0.087 0.019 -0.055 -0.150 0.064 -0.121 0.099 -0.117 0.015 95% C.L. 0.152 0.162 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.169 0.169 0.172 0.172 0.173 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.076 0.262 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.293 0.149 0.051 -0.010 -0.203 -0.048 -0.229 0.004 0.013 -0.009 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.293 2 0.273 0.069 3 0.274 0.072 -0.011 4 0.273 0.074 -0.001 -0.035 5 0.266 0.074 0.014 0.023 -0.213 6 0.282 0.072 0.013 0.018 -0.233 0.075 7 0.298 0.021 0.017 0.021 -0.217 0.137 -0.219 8 0.333 -0.001 0.052 0.017 -0.220 0.134 -0.267 0.160 9 0.333 0.000 0.052 0.018 -0.220 0.134 -0.267 0.160 0.001 10 0.333 0.011 0.034 0.027 -0.235 0.135 -0.264 0.160 0.024 -0.068 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1363.56 1350.04 1351.21 1353.19 1354.98 1348.96 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1349.98 1343.45 1340.96 1342.96 1344.15 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.293 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.58 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 109.39 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.293 0.086 0.025 0.007 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 603411 1 0.115 0.339 2 603412 1 0.190 0.434 3 603421 1 0.206 0.380 4 603422 1 0.342 0.550 5 603431 1 0.268 0.454 6 603432 1 0.291 0.505 7 603441 1 0.102 0.313 8 603442 1 0.186 0.421 9 603451 1 0.090 0.278 10 603452 1 0.028 0.165 11 603461 1 0.132 0.363 12 603462 1 0.114 0.316 13 603471 1 0.323 0.536 14 603472 1 0.365 0.569 15 603481 1 0.387 0.614 16 603482 1 0.353 0.589 17 603491 1 0.512 0.712 18 603492 1 0.206 0.446 19 603511 1 0.464 0.670 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 603512 1 0.173 0.394 21 603521 1 0.351 0.577 22 603522 1 0.168 0.402 23 603531 1 0.419 0.627 24 603532 1 0.215 0.433 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.250 0.462 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.129 0.135 MEDIAN 1 0.210 0.440 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.202 0.202 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.028 0.165 LOWER HINGE 1 0.150 0.371 UPPER HINGE 1 0.352 0.573 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.512 0.712 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603411 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.232 -0.363 4.145 0.261 -0.010 2 603412 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.232 -0.452 4.122 0.261 -0.028 3 603421 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.238 -0.008 4.062 0.281 -0.101 4 603422 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.215 -0.118 3.555 0.260 -0.120 5 603431 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.201 -0.067 3.553 0.240 -0.129 6 603432 1872 1981 110 1.000 0.204 -0.277 3.777 0.249 -0.113 7 603441 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.226 -0.068 4.434 0.265 -0.020 8 603442 1882 1981 100 1.000 0.250 -0.046 3.148 0.304 -0.040 9 603451 1818 1981 164 1.000 0.290 0.113 3.113 0.348 -0.033 10 603452 1834 1981 148 1.000 0.309 0.189 2.964 0.360 -0.004 11 603461 1841 1972 132 1.000 0.292 0.636 5.527 0.319 0.002 12 603462 1835 1970 136 1.000 0.274 0.013 3.874 0.320 -0.039 13 603471 1810 1981 172 1.001 0.315 0.197 3.720 0.373 -0.111 14 603472 1809 1981 173 1.002 0.325 0.168 3.411 0.371 -0.116 15 603481 1889 1979 91 1.000 0.277 0.194 4.109 0.323 -0.060 16 603482 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.261 -0.062 2.998 0.324 -0.059 17 603491 1874 1979 106 1.000 0.306 1.142 4.497 0.327 -0.068 18 603492 1880 1974 95 1.000 0.285 0.729 5.098 0.320 0.044 19 603511 1865 1975 111 1.001 0.316 0.450 4.131 0.364 -0.089 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603512 1867 1973 107 1.000 0.281 0.254 5.458 0.352 -0.055 21 603521 1872 1978 107 1.000 0.246 -0.302 3.179 0.303 -0.079 22 603522 1864 1974 111 1.000 0.245 0.181 4.139 0.277 -0.026 23 603531 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.248 -0.221 3.842 0.310 -0.128 24 603532 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.260 -0.063 3.559 0.305 -0.079 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.000 0.264 0.092 3.934 0.309 -0.061 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.036 0.366 0.706 0.040 0.047 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 108 1.000 0.261 0.003 3.858 0.314 -0.059 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.000 0.056 0.289 0.660 0.067 0.079 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.000 0.201 -0.452 2.964 0.240 -0.129 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 1.000 0.235 -0.093 3.482 0.271 -0.106 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.291 0.196 4.142 0.338 -0.027 MAXIMUM VALUE 173 1.002 0.325 1.142 5.527 0.373 0.044 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.569 0.104 0.006 -0.337 4.211 0.150 0.883 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.150 SERIES 603421 AND 603472 82 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.883 SERIES 603441 AND 603442 95 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.03 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 15. 171. 276. RBAR 0.600 0.635 0.625 0.644 SDEV 0.155 0.095 0.116 0.126 SERR 0.049 0.025 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.932 0.968 0.975 0.977 NSS 9.2 17.5 23.3 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 0.994 0.203 -0.252 3.759 0.265 -0.211 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.104 0.036 0.126 52 121 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.41 1.00 1.06 1.46 3.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.210 0.021 0.013 0.020 -0.172 0.094 -0.167 0.117 -0.097 0.071 PACF -0.210 -0.025 0.013 0.027 -0.170 0.024 -0.154 0.066 -0.072 0.024 95% C.L. 0.152 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.163 0.164 0.168 0.170 0.171 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.045 -0.211 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.006 -0.021 0.025 -0.012 -0.162 0.030 -0.134 0.072 -0.064 0.026 PACF -0.006 -0.021 0.024 -0.012 -0.161 0.028 -0.144 0.084 -0.083 0.016 95% C.L. 0.152 0.152 0.152 0.152 0.152 0.156 0.156 0.159 0.160 0.160 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 -0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1809 1981 173 0.993 0.206 -0.272 3.996 0.212 0.282 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.281 0.066 0.027 -0.046 -0.162 -0.049 -0.121 0.016 -0.054 -0.019 PACF 0.281 -0.014 0.014 -0.061 -0.145 0.041 -0.121 0.097 -0.104 0.006 95% C.L. 0.152 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.165 0.168 0.169 0.171 0.171 0.171 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.079 0.282 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 4.78 MINUTES