RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED015N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED015N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 529 1 Tothumeln DENSITY_MINIMUM PCAB - 529 2 Sweeden Norway spruce 700 6325-1311 1818 1978 - 529 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 10 529062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1940 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 529072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1895 1901 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 529092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1900 1904 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 529111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1972 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 529011 1855 1978 124 0.232 0.020 -0.413 3.542 0.062 0.532 2 529012 1842 1978 137 0.236 0.020 0.109 3.270 0.071 0.446 3 529021 1818 1978 161 0.261 0.025 0.324 4.639 0.076 0.446 4 529022 1841 1978 138 0.262 0.034 0.880 4.192 0.081 0.692 5 529031 1860 1978 119 0.207 0.032 1.807 8.629 0.111 0.502 6 529042 1871 1978 108 0.218 0.024 0.929 3.931 0.083 0.427 7 529051 1891 1978 88 0.235 0.026 0.674 2.948 0.069 0.651 8 529052 1900 1978 79 0.220 0.016 0.262 2.972 0.075 0.175 9 529061 1879 1978 100 0.204 0.023 1.564 7.101 0.082 0.453 10 529062 1864 1978 115 0.211 0.019 0.325 3.074 0.071 0.455 11 529071 1873 1978 106 0.216 0.020 0.478 2.863 0.075 0.418 12 529072 1880 1978 99 0.232 0.015 0.017 2.991 0.059 0.316 13 529081 1860 1978 119 0.266 0.038 0.653 3.303 0.084 0.671 14 529082 1859 1978 120 0.263 0.034 0.498 2.808 0.071 0.758 15 529091 1904 1978 75 0.234 0.019 0.003 3.020 0.073 0.390 16 529092 1898 1978 81 0.236 0.018 -0.380 3.967 0.069 0.242 17 529101 1890 1978 89 0.238 0.020 0.280 3.317 0.082 0.215 18 529102 1892 1978 87 0.235 0.026 1.365 6.034 0.072 0.602 19 529111 1870 1978 109 0.226 0.026 1.092 6.432 0.083 0.449 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 529112 1883 1978 96 0.215 0.022 1.685 10.149 0.092 0.264 21 529121 1898 1978 81 0.221 0.020 0.312 3.335 0.075 0.414 22 529122 1887 1978 92 0.255 0.020 0.170 2.710 0.077 0.261 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1818 TO 1978 161 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 105 0.233 0.023 0.574 4.329 0.077 0.445 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.019 0.006 0.623 2.053 0.011 0.161 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 102 0.233 0.021 0.402 3.326 0.075 0.446 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.020 0.007 0.759 1.648 0.011 0.216 MINIMUM VALUE 75 0.204 0.015 -0.413 2.710 0.059 0.175 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 0.218 0.020 0.170 2.991 0.071 0.316 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 0.238 0.026 0.929 4.639 0.082 0.532 MAXIMUM VALUE 161 0.266 0.038 1.807 10.149 0.111 0.758 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.253 0.243 0.016 -0.123 2.598 -0.367 0.780 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.367 SERIES 529051 AND 529082 88 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.780 SERIES 529091 AND 529092 75 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 36. 153. 231. RBAR 0.183 0.322 0.305 0.286 SDEV 0.374 0.187 0.261 0.219 SERR 0.216 0.031 0.021 0.014 EPS 0.674 0.891 0.905 0.898 NSS 9.2 17.3 21.6 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1818 1978 161 0.242 0.024 1.565 7.651 0.064 0.574 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.369 -0.188 0.068 52 109 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.68 1.01 1.06 1.74 9999.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.20 0.00 0.77 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 103. 31. 75. 88. 119. 161. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.570 0.527 0.553 0.425 0.482 0.446 0.438 0.487 0.500 0.465 PACF 0.570 0.299 0.280 -0.015 0.175 0.054 0.106 0.131 0.162 0.027 95% C.L. 0.158 0.202 0.234 0.265 0.281 0.301 0.317 0.331 0.349 0.366 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.466 0.295 0.194 0.315 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 529011 1 0.06277023 0.00592146 0.00000000 0.18752320 2 529012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022351 0.25162622 3 529021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023542 0.27962810 4 529022 1 0.09380085 0.02184690 0.00000000 0.23283800 5 529031 1 0.09464180 0.05533971 0.00000000 0.19352113 6 529042 1 0.05712080 0.05486821 0.00000000 0.20888858 7 529051 1 0.06699678 0.03510467 0.00000000 0.21432105 8 529052 1 0.01260437 0.00686231 0.00000000 0.21005034 9 529061 1 0.16847715 0.50104296 0.00000000 0.20140982 10 529062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028245 0.22682786 11 529071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005567 0.21315363 12 529072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013642 0.22424231 13 529081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00060056 0.22993305 14 529082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00066400 0.22299439 15 529091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00051152 0.21482882 16 529092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00034983 0.22155507 17 529101 1 0.03613800 0.05014662 0.00000000 0.23039758 18 529102 1 0.09020329 0.08358673 0.00000000 0.22351792 19 529111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005161 0.22800055 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 529112 1 0.01425951 0.10769375 0.00000000 0.21348540 21 529121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00050474 0.20078704 22 529122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027049 0.24263975 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 529011 1855 1978 124 1.000 0.074 -0.800 3.976 0.062 0.382 2 529012 1842 1978 137 1.000 0.076 -0.010 3.118 0.071 0.302 3 529021 1818 1978 161 1.000 0.085 0.431 3.933 0.076 0.332 4 529022 1841 1978 138 1.000 0.094 0.527 3.904 0.081 0.421 5 529031 1860 1978 119 1.000 0.111 0.653 4.275 0.111 0.121 6 529042 1871 1978 108 1.000 0.091 0.326 3.205 0.083 0.199 7 529051 1891 1978 88 1.000 0.082 0.479 2.904 0.068 0.411 8 529052 1900 1978 79 1.000 0.072 0.287 3.123 0.074 0.172 9 529061 1879 1978 100 1.000 0.093 1.054 7.240 0.080 0.316 10 529062 1864 1978 115 1.000 0.075 0.312 3.462 0.070 0.306 11 529071 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.091 0.498 2.953 0.075 0.407 12 529072 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.061 0.131 2.955 0.057 0.232 13 529081 1860 1978 119 1.000 0.119 1.150 4.647 0.084 0.527 14 529082 1859 1978 120 1.000 0.094 -0.220 2.940 0.071 0.570 15 529091 1904 1978 75 1.000 0.066 -0.519 3.367 0.072 0.049 16 529092 1898 1978 81 1.000 0.066 -0.327 3.695 0.069 0.027 17 529101 1890 1978 89 1.000 0.076 0.197 3.340 0.081 0.042 18 529102 1892 1978 87 1.000 0.074 -0.157 3.344 0.071 0.172 19 529111 1870 1978 109 1.000 0.117 1.087 6.420 0.084 0.458 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 529112 1883 1978 96 1.000 0.101 1.797 10.946 0.091 0.248 21 529121 1898 1978 81 1.000 0.072 -0.009 3.436 0.075 0.099 22 529122 1887 1978 92 1.000 0.075 0.208 2.570 0.076 0.140 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 106 1.000 0.085 0.322 4.080 0.076 0.270 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.000 0.016 0.594 1.898 0.011 0.159 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.079 0.299 3.402 0.075 0.275 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.000 0.020 0.537 0.859 0.010 0.267 MINIMUM VALUE 75 1.000 0.061 -0.800 2.570 0.057 0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.074 -0.010 3.118 0.071 0.140 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.094 0.527 3.976 0.081 0.407 MAXIMUM VALUE 161 1.000 0.119 1.797 10.946 0.111 0.570 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 529011 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 529012 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 529021 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 529022 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 529031 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 529042 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 529051 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 529052 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 529061 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 529062 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 529071 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 529072 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 529081 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 529082 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 529091 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 529092 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 529101 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 529102 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 529111 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 529112 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 529121 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 529122 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 529011 1855 1978 124 1.000 0.068 -0.513 3.624 0.062 0.273 2 529012 1842 1978 137 1.000 0.069 -0.219 3.239 0.071 0.138 3 529021 1818 1978 161 1.000 0.080 0.373 4.337 0.076 0.243 4 529022 1841 1978 138 1.000 0.088 0.478 3.984 0.081 0.358 5 529031 1860 1978 119 1.000 0.106 0.607 4.340 0.111 0.033 6 529042 1871 1978 108 1.000 0.082 0.619 4.476 0.083 0.001 7 529051 1891 1978 88 1.000 0.077 0.353 2.833 0.068 0.320 8 529052 1900 1978 79 1.000 0.071 0.279 3.154 0.074 0.147 9 529061 1879 1978 100 1.000 0.086 1.273 7.643 0.081 0.197 10 529062 1864 1978 115 1.000 0.072 0.272 3.291 0.070 0.248 11 529071 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.077 0.670 4.148 0.075 0.174 12 529072 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.058 -0.035 3.280 0.057 0.153 13 529081 1860 1978 119 0.999 0.090 1.010 4.839 0.084 0.232 14 529082 1859 1978 120 1.000 0.063 -0.079 3.117 0.071 -0.009 15 529091 1904 1978 75 1.000 0.064 -0.409 3.356 0.072 -0.022 16 529092 1898 1978 81 1.000 0.064 -0.458 3.696 0.069 -0.019 17 529101 1890 1978 89 1.000 0.075 0.184 3.484 0.080 0.017 18 529102 1892 1978 87 1.000 0.070 -0.276 3.782 0.072 0.071 19 529111 1870 1978 109 1.000 0.109 1.018 5.393 0.084 0.402 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 529112 1883 1978 96 1.000 0.099 1.797 10.908 0.092 0.224 21 529121 1898 1978 81 1.000 0.062 -0.090 3.279 0.075 -0.195 22 529122 1887 1978 92 1.000 0.067 -0.056 2.323 0.077 -0.042 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 106 1.000 0.077 0.309 4.206 0.077 0.134 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.000 0.014 0.596 1.851 0.011 0.151 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.074 0.276 3.660 0.075 0.150 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.000 0.018 0.709 1.061 0.010 0.242 MINIMUM VALUE 75 0.999 0.058 -0.513 2.323 0.057 -0.195 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.067 -0.090 3.279 0.071 0.001 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.086 0.619 4.340 0.081 0.243 MAXIMUM VALUE 161 1.000 0.109 1.797 10.908 0.111 0.402 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.376 0.115 0.008 0.111 2.821 0.073 0.690 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.073 SERIES 529111 AND 529112 96 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.690 SERIES 529091 AND 529092 75 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 36. 153. 231. RBAR 0.339 0.358 0.423 0.363 SDEV 0.216 0.179 0.147 0.141 SERR 0.125 0.030 0.012 0.009 EPS 0.826 0.906 0.941 0.926 NSS 9.2 17.3 21.6 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1818 1978 161 0.999 0.057 0.510 4.637 0.064 -0.039 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.017 -0.009 0.059 38 123 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.62 1.01 1.08 1.69 8.07 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.83 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.038 -0.072 0.115 -0.218 0.040 -0.054 -0.128 0.055 -0.024 -0.018 PACF -0.038 -0.073 0.109 -0.219 0.050 -0.107 -0.078 -0.020 -0.009 -0.032 95% C.L. 0.158 0.158 0.159 0.161 0.168 0.168 0.169 0.171 0.171 0.172 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.071 -0.081 0.273 -0.183 0.080 0.041 -0.163 0.018 -0.126 0.019 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.071 2 -0.077 -0.086 3 -0.055 -0.066 0.264 4 -0.010 -0.077 0.255 -0.168 5 0.010 -0.108 0.264 -0.167 0.121 6 0.018 -0.118 0.281 -0.174 0.122 -0.065 7 0.014 -0.112 0.271 -0.158 0.115 -0.064 -0.057 8 0.010 -0.116 0.280 -0.170 0.135 -0.072 -0.056 -0.076 9 0.001 -0.123 0.271 -0.153 0.114 -0.037 -0.071 -0.074 -0.125 10 0.009 -0.118 0.276 -0.150 0.106 -0.026 -0.090 -0.066 -0.125 0.070 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 753.10 754.28 755.08 745.45 742.83 742.45 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 743.78 745.25 746.33 745.78 746.99 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.010 -0.108 0.264 -0.167 0.121 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 12.03 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 113.68 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.010 -0.108 0.262 -0.150 0.061 0.105 -0.102 0.061 0.011 -.0435 0.044 -0.014 -0.011 0.022 -0.015 0.002 0.007 -0.009 0.005 0.0008 -0.004 0.004 -0.001 -0.001 0.002 -0.001 0.000 0.001 -0.001 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 529011 5 0.174 0.338 -0.056 0.232 -0.296 0.117 2 529012 5 0.112 0.145 -0.012 0.288 -0.083 0.071 3 529021 5 0.110 0.217 0.161 0.055 -0.160 0.077 4 529022 5 0.206 0.341 0.016 0.239 -0.156 0.066 5 529031 5 0.097 0.030 0.084 0.190 -0.080 0.008 6 529042 5 0.023 0.013 -0.048 0.052 -0.125 0.027 7 529051 5 0.152 0.334 -0.024 0.196 -0.138 -0.046 8 529052 5 0.133 0.202 -0.030 0.191 -0.306 0.032 9 529061 5 0.068 0.203 -0.077 0.090 0.035 0.089 10 529062 5 0.145 0.249 -0.070 0.259 0.078 -0.063 11 529071 5 0.047 0.151 0.104 0.049 0.005 -0.035 12 529072 5 0.074 0.192 -0.162 0.079 -0.149 -0.030 13 529081 5 0.328 0.152 0.219 0.366 -0.215 0.147 14 529082 5 0.069 0.006 0.068 0.181 -0.180 -0.053 15 529091 5 0.034 -0.015 0.026 0.135 -0.068 0.003 16 529092 5 0.047 0.010 -0.064 0.137 -0.155 0.015 17 529101 5 0.078 0.014 0.047 0.189 -0.097 -0.184 18 529102 5 0.046 0.063 0.034 0.090 -0.113 -0.114 19 529111 5 0.195 0.369 0.102 0.068 -0.097 -0.052 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 529112 5 0.117 0.245 -0.110 0.036 -0.072 -0.067 21 529121 5 0.182 -0.251 -0.321 -0.062 -0.306 -0.084 22 529122 5 0.035 -0.048 0.047 0.059 -0.085 -0.121 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.112 0.135 -0.003 0.142 -0.126 -0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.073 0.155 0.115 0.101 0.099 0.083 MEDIAN 5 0.103 0.152 0.002 0.136 -0.119 -0.013 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.105 0.232 0.132 0.137 0.080 0.130 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.023 -0.251 -0.321 -0.062 -0.306 -0.184 LOWER HINGE 5 0.047 0.013 -0.064 0.059 -0.160 -0.063 UPPER HINGE 5 0.152 0.245 0.068 0.196 -0.080 0.066 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.328 0.369 0.219 0.366 0.078 0.147 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 529011 1855 1978 124 1.000 0.062 -0.005 2.742 0.070 0.008 2 529012 1842 1978 137 1.000 0.065 -0.018 3.842 0.073 0.004 3 529021 1818 1978 161 1.000 0.075 0.272 4.209 0.082 0.006 4 529022 1841 1978 138 1.000 0.079 0.338 3.379 0.090 0.009 5 529031 1860 1978 119 1.000 0.103 0.852 5.005 0.110 0.000 6 529042 1871 1978 108 1.000 0.081 0.713 4.640 0.084 -0.001 7 529051 1891 1978 88 1.000 0.071 0.400 2.882 0.077 0.012 8 529052 1900 1978 79 1.000 0.066 0.709 3.590 0.076 0.010 9 529061 1879 1978 100 1.000 0.083 1.487 8.688 0.089 0.006 10 529062 1864 1978 115 1.000 0.067 0.371 3.865 0.076 -0.007 11 529071 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.075 0.646 4.446 0.083 -0.002 12 529072 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.055 0.088 3.129 0.062 0.000 13 529081 1860 1978 119 1.000 0.074 0.214 3.132 0.083 0.016 14 529082 1859 1978 120 1.000 0.061 -0.024 2.974 0.069 0.003 15 529091 1904 1978 75 1.000 0.063 -0.403 3.094 0.072 0.005 16 529092 1898 1978 81 1.000 0.062 -0.608 3.981 0.070 0.003 17 529101 1890 1978 89 1.000 0.072 0.136 3.717 0.076 -0.003 18 529102 1892 1978 87 1.000 0.068 -0.201 3.696 0.074 0.007 19 529111 1870 1978 109 1.000 0.098 1.257 6.665 0.100 0.011 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 529112 1883 1978 96 1.000 0.095 1.951 12.205 0.101 -0.015 21 529121 1898 1978 81 1.000 0.056 -0.032 3.524 0.063 -0.002 22 529122 1887 1978 92 1.000 0.066 -0.013 2.291 0.075 -0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 106 1.000 0.073 0.370 4.350 0.080 0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.000 0.013 0.613 2.241 0.012 0.007 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.069 0.243 3.707 0.076 0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.000 0.016 0.728 1.317 0.011 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 75 1.000 0.055 -0.608 2.291 0.062 -0.015 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.063 -0.018 3.129 0.072 -0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.079 0.709 4.446 0.084 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 161 1.000 0.103 1.951 12.205 0.110 0.016 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.376 0.109 0.007 0.223 2.773 0.101 0.700 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.101 SERIES 529042 AND 529082 108 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.700 SERIES 529091 AND 529092 75 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 36. 153. 231. RBAR 0.378 0.361 0.442 0.367 SDEV 0.135 0.175 0.124 0.133 SERR 0.078 0.029 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.849 0.907 0.945 0.927 NSS 9.2 17.3 21.6 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1818 1978 161 1.000 0.056 0.412 4.315 0.066 -0.142 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.000 0.000 0.047 35 126 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.87 1.00 1.06 1.93 7.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.14 0.00 0.82 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.141 -0.141 0.033 -0.096 0.073 -0.071 -0.104 0.066 -0.001 -0.009 PACF -0.141 -0.164 -0.013 -0.121 0.044 -0.092 -0.117 -0.008 -0.018 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.158 0.161 0.164 0.164 0.165 0.166 0.167 0.168 0.169 0.169 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.047 -0.164 -0.165 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 -0.011 -0.019 -0.004 -0.032 -0.100 -0.113 0.036 -0.013 -0.035 PACF 0.003 -0.011 -0.019 -0.005 -0.032 -0.100 -0.116 0.032 -0.021 -0.043 95% C.L. 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.159 0.161 0.162 0.162 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.014 0.002 -0.012 -0.019 -0.005 -0.035 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1818 1978 161 1.000 0.057 0.486 4.694 0.066 -0.083 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.082 -0.092 0.249 -0.199 0.050 -0.004 -0.195 0.063 -0.012 -0.083 PACF -0.082 -0.100 0.237 -0.183 0.083 -0.105 -0.103 -0.022 0.005 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.158 0.159 0.160 0.169 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.181 0.181 0.181 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES