RUN: RUSS002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS177L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS177L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 122 1 Nojabrsk west WIDTH_LATE PCOB - 122 2 Russia Black Spuce 150 6308-7520 1850 1994 - 122 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 8 122242 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1918 1920 / 1928 1929 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 122211 1877 1994 118 0.202 0.110 2.667 15.420 0.372 0.283 2 122212 1882 1994 113 0.231 0.143 2.884 12.795 0.369 0.576 3 122221 1877 1994 118 0.175 0.058 0.480 3.763 0.244 0.490 4 122222 1904 1994 91 0.263 0.139 1.624 8.096 0.286 0.735 5 122231 1881 1994 114 0.276 0.096 0.417 2.522 0.295 0.413 6 122232 1878 1994 117 0.198 0.084 1.249 4.469 0.297 0.507 7 122241 1874 1994 121 0.194 0.107 2.483 13.175 0.369 0.376 8 122242 1910 1956 47 0.267 0.167 1.301 4.410 0.494 0.324 9 122251 1868 1994 127 0.216 0.094 1.067 3.617 0.282 0.587 10 122252 1896 1994 99 0.223 0.087 1.566 5.946 0.347 0.242 11 122261 1890 1994 105 0.239 0.076 0.608 3.184 0.284 0.325 12 122262 1864 1994 131 0.229 0.132 2.397 10.605 0.366 0.504 13 122271 1870 1994 125 0.170 0.075 1.550 5.536 0.339 0.375 14 122272 1850 1994 145 0.216 0.171 2.791 12.523 0.343 0.628 15 122281 1872 1994 123 0.179 0.082 1.319 5.679 0.347 0.330 16 122282 1850 1994 145 0.167 0.075 1.498 5.435 0.369 0.231 17 122291 1882 1994 113 0.208 0.113 2.719 17.523 0.271 0.492 18 122292 1883 1994 112 0.229 0.080 1.097 4.163 0.238 0.530 19 122301 1902 1994 93 0.296 0.149 1.394 4.521 0.341 0.526 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 122302 1893 1994 102 0.337 0.191 1.738 7.049 0.338 0.510 21 122311 1873 1994 122 0.216 0.103 1.666 7.212 0.264 0.606 22 122312 1853 1994 142 0.193 0.088 1.364 5.710 0.263 0.586 23 122321 1904 1994 91 0.190 0.090 0.536 2.133 0.296 0.664 24 122322 1873 1994 122 0.200 0.127 2.132 11.509 0.344 0.600 25 122331 1902 1994 93 0.191 0.065 1.472 6.663 0.316 0.144 26 122332 1925 1994 70 0.192 0.063 0.917 3.724 0.242 0.518 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1850 TO 1994 145 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 111 0.219 0.106 1.574 7.207 0.320 0.465 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.041 0.036 0.731 4.218 0.056 0.149 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 0.212 0.095 1.485 5.695 0.327 0.505 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 24 0.039 0.052 1.036 6.442 0.065 0.256 MINIMUM VALUE 42 0.167 0.058 0.417 2.133 0.238 0.144 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 0.192 0.080 1.097 4.163 0.282 0.330 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 0.231 0.132 2.132 10.605 0.347 0.586 MAXIMUM VALUE 145 0.337 0.191 2.884 17.523 0.494 0.735 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.404 0.163 0.009 -0.070 2.776 -0.040 0.821 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.040 SERIES 122222 AND 122282 91 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.821 SERIES 122212 AND 122262 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.53 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1875. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 136. 276. 300. RBAR 0.346 0.284 0.401 0.512 SDEV 0.000 0.240 0.178 0.138 SERR 0.000 0.021 0.011 0.008 EPS 0.844 0.900 0.945 0.964 NSS 10.3 22.8 25.6 25.4 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1850 1994 145 0.194 0.064 1.124 4.286 0.218 0.607 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.706 0.376 -0.001 71 74 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.42 0.72 1.01 1.13 1.85 24.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.76 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 116. 24. 47. 99. 123. 145. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.603 0.544 0.537 0.497 0.418 0.479 0.455 0.491 0.453 0.426 PACF 0.603 0.284 0.224 0.112 -0.016 0.177 0.072 0.164 0.020 -0.010 95% C.L. 0.166 0.218 0.253 0.283 0.306 0.321 0.340 0.357 0.375 0.390 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.467 0.337 0.151 0.198 0.130 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 122211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009280 0.19642764 2 122212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027089 0.21535556 3 122221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000767 0.17479792 4 122222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00108473 0.21263003 5 122231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00026982 0.29165503 6 122232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024764 0.21273062 7 122241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005108 0.19118182 8 122242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00847448 0.05085119 9 122251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018888 0.20436820 10 122252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00050489 0.19778602 11 122261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00085351 0.28418866 12 122262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00098676 0.16395772 13 122271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017057 0.15917419 14 122272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00164356 0.09567528 15 122281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00094478 0.23711315 16 122282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00044162 0.19934195 17 122291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00080453 0.16166404 18 122292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005296 0.22647201 19 122301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012369 0.28999299 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 122302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00209623 0.22871093 21 122311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047132 0.18666983 22 122312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027050 0.17403956 23 122321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00108935 0.24021979 24 122322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00095149 0.14148355 25 122331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00070917 0.22408368 26 122332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00111241 0.23149069 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 122211 1877 1994 118 1.000 0.540 2.528 14.428 0.369 0.280 2 122212 1882 1994 113 1.000 0.612 2.817 12.407 0.366 0.566 3 122221 1877 1994 118 1.000 0.331 0.481 3.763 0.242 0.486 4 122222 1904 1994 91 0.997 0.522 1.615 7.669 0.283 0.712 5 122231 1881 1994 114 1.000 0.345 0.400 2.465 0.292 0.409 6 122232 1878 1994 117 1.000 0.423 1.322 4.700 0.294 0.504 7 122241 1874 1994 121 1.000 0.550 2.443 12.902 0.366 0.372 8 122242 1910 1956 47 1.026 0.438 1.067 3.577 0.449 0.006 9 122251 1868 1994 127 1.000 0.433 1.055 3.566 0.279 0.576 10 122252 1896 1994 99 1.000 0.378 1.385 5.024 0.343 0.201 11 122261 1890 1994 105 0.999 0.299 0.781 3.576 0.282 0.241 12 122262 1864 1994 131 0.996 0.531 2.290 9.677 0.363 0.439 13 122271 1870 1994 125 1.000 0.435 1.535 5.570 0.336 0.366 14 122272 1850 1994 145 0.984 0.624 2.690 12.381 0.341 0.531 15 122281 1872 1994 123 0.998 0.412 1.236 4.481 0.344 0.255 16 122282 1850 1994 145 0.999 0.429 1.609 6.739 0.366 0.174 17 122291 1882 1994 113 1.000 0.588 4.500 34.107 0.268 0.409 18 122292 1883 1994 112 1.000 0.348 1.102 4.149 0.236 0.526 19 122301 1902 1994 93 1.000 0.503 1.409 4.558 0.337 0.521 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 122302 1893 1994 102 0.992 0.524 1.669 5.775 0.336 0.498 21 122311 1873 1994 122 0.998 0.470 1.751 7.650 0.262 0.590 22 122312 1853 1994 142 1.000 0.456 1.497 6.402 0.261 0.577 23 122321 1904 1994 91 0.995 0.417 0.308 2.282 0.293 0.578 24 122322 1873 1994 122 0.994 0.603 1.883 9.316 0.342 0.570 25 122331 1902 1994 93 1.000 0.313 1.064 4.857 0.313 0.091 26 122332 1925 1994 70 0.999 0.305 1.216 4.840 0.240 0.449 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 112 0.999 0.455 1.602 7.572 0.316 0.420 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.006 0.099 0.891 6.385 0.051 0.174 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 1.000 0.436 1.453 5.297 0.324 0.467 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 24 0.002 0.153 0.816 5.167 0.064 0.286 MINIMUM VALUE 46 0.984 0.299 0.308 2.282 0.236 0.006 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 0.998 0.378 1.067 4.149 0.279 0.280 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.531 1.883 9.316 0.344 0.566 MAXIMUM VALUE 145 1.026 0.624 4.500 34.107 0.449 0.712 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 122211 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 122212 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 122221 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 122222 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 122231 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 122232 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 122241 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 122242 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 122251 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 122252 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 122261 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 122262 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 122271 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 122272 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 122281 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 122282 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 122291 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 122292 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 122301 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 122302 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 122311 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 122312 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 122321 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 122322 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 122331 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 122332 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 122211 1877 1994 118 0.995 0.535 3.131 19.953 0.369 0.249 2 122212 1882 1994 113 0.986 0.435 1.811 8.236 0.365 0.407 3 122221 1877 1994 118 0.994 0.303 0.831 5.752 0.243 0.388 4 122222 1904 1994 91 0.979 0.366 1.216 5.856 0.280 0.478 5 122231 1881 1994 114 0.995 0.320 0.539 2.763 0.292 0.293 6 122232 1878 1994 117 0.995 0.300 0.856 3.434 0.294 0.159 7 122241 1874 1994 121 0.992 0.489 2.362 11.190 0.366 0.260 8 122242 1910 1956 47 0.996 0.386 0.782 3.055 0.449 -0.160 9 122251 1868 1994 127 0.985 0.312 1.029 4.347 0.281 0.244 10 122252 1896 1994 99 0.998 0.356 1.571 6.785 0.343 0.150 11 122261 1890 1994 105 0.999 0.273 0.593 3.085 0.282 0.101 12 122262 1864 1994 131 0.993 0.418 1.476 6.326 0.361 0.261 13 122271 1870 1994 125 0.997 0.374 1.552 6.143 0.336 0.170 14 122272 1850 1994 145 0.977 0.437 1.804 8.068 0.341 0.349 15 122281 1872 1994 123 0.994 0.373 1.056 4.273 0.344 0.141 16 122282 1850 1994 145 0.996 0.406 1.636 7.349 0.367 0.110 17 122291 1882 1994 113 0.978 0.493 5.327 42.776 0.268 0.276 18 122292 1883 1994 112 0.990 0.278 1.025 4.346 0.235 0.327 19 122301 1902 1994 93 0.995 0.326 0.629 3.235 0.338 0.131 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 122302 1893 1994 102 0.995 0.425 2.575 14.572 0.338 0.221 21 122311 1873 1994 122 0.994 0.284 1.189 6.101 0.264 0.151 22 122312 1853 1994 142 0.979 0.341 1.454 6.788 0.263 0.371 23 122321 1904 1994 91 0.986 0.311 0.412 2.867 0.295 0.350 24 122322 1873 1994 122 0.975 0.450 1.544 7.077 0.343 0.370 25 122331 1902 1994 93 0.999 0.302 1.119 5.418 0.313 0.016 26 122332 1925 1994 70 0.999 0.272 0.824 3.792 0.240 0.317 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 112 0.991 0.368 1.475 7.830 0.316 0.236 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.008 0.075 1.018 8.098 0.051 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 0.994 0.361 1.203 5.978 0.324 0.255 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 24 0.010 0.122 0.804 3.557 0.064 0.199 MINIMUM VALUE 46 0.975 0.272 0.412 2.763 0.235 -0.160 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 0.986 0.303 0.831 3.792 0.280 0.150 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 0.996 0.425 1.636 7.349 0.344 0.349 MAXIMUM VALUE 145 0.999 0.535 5.327 42.776 0.449 0.478 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.305 0.137 0.008 0.016 3.106 -0.085 0.728 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.085 SERIES 122221 AND 122321 91 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.728 SERIES 122212 AND 122262 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.53 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1875. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 136. 276. 300. RBAR 0.250 0.250 0.340 0.402 SDEV 0.000 0.192 0.166 0.144 SERR 0.000 0.016 0.010 0.008 EPS 0.774 0.884 0.930 0.945 NSS 10.3 22.8 25.6 25.4 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1850 1994 145 0.963 0.201 0.279 2.931 0.202 0.208 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.492 0.273 -0.002 59 86 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.77 1.00 1.10 1.86 12.38 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.65 0.87 0.99 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.207 0.044 0.066 0.065 -0.052 0.020 0.005 0.159 0.066 0.030 PACF 0.207 0.001 0.059 0.041 -0.079 0.043 -0.012 0.173 0.003 0.005 95% C.L. 0.166 0.173 0.173 0.174 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.179 0.180 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.043 0.207 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.246 0.082 0.120 0.130 -0.076 -0.015 0.019 0.100 0.073 0.018 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.246 2 0.241 0.023 3 0.238 -0.002 0.101 4 0.230 -0.001 0.081 0.082 5 0.242 0.010 0.081 0.115 -0.144 6 0.245 0.008 0.079 0.115 -0.149 0.021 7 0.245 0.009 0.078 0.115 -0.149 0.019 0.007 8 0.244 0.007 0.095 0.102 -0.157 0.018 -0.021 0.112 9 0.238 0.008 0.094 0.111 -0.163 0.013 -0.021 0.098 0.056 10 0.240 0.012 0.093 0.111 -0.169 0.017 -0.017 0.099 0.065 -0.038 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1167.69 1160.62 1162.55 1163.08 1164.09 1163.07 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1165.01 1167.00 1167.17 1168.72 1170.52 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.246 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.06 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.45 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.246 0.061 0.015 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 122211 1 0.063 0.250 2 122212 1 0.166 0.408 3 122221 1 0.171 0.389 4 122222 1 0.245 0.489 5 122231 1 0.097 0.296 6 122232 1 0.029 0.159 7 122241 1 0.069 0.262 8 122242 1 0.049 -0.161 9 122251 1 0.061 0.244 10 122252 1 0.032 0.151 11 122261 1 0.013 0.102 12 122262 1 0.069 0.261 13 122271 1 0.053 0.172 14 122272 1 0.173 0.349 15 122281 1 0.041 0.142 16 122282 1 0.012 0.110 17 122291 1 0.080 0.276 18 122292 1 0.134 0.331 19 122301 1 0.021 0.132 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 122302 1 0.055 0.225 21 122311 1 0.032 0.152 22 122312 1 0.140 0.373 23 122321 1 0.146 0.352 24 122322 1 0.209 0.373 25 122331 1 0.064 0.016 26 122332 1 0.113 0.319 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.090 0.237 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.064 0.140 MEDIAN 1 0.066 0.256 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.099 0.198 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.012 -0.161 LOWER HINGE 1 0.041 0.151 UPPER HINGE 1 0.140 0.349 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.245 0.489 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 122211 1877 1994 118 1.000 0.518 3.768 25.574 0.411 -0.005 2 122212 1882 1994 113 1.000 0.398 2.056 11.351 0.406 0.007 3 122221 1877 1994 118 1.000 0.279 0.576 5.029 0.309 -0.060 4 122222 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.317 0.937 4.662 0.342 0.027 5 122231 1881 1994 114 1.000 0.306 0.401 3.210 0.335 -0.028 6 122232 1878 1994 117 1.000 0.296 0.890 3.551 0.308 0.009 7 122241 1874 1994 121 1.000 0.472 2.770 14.351 0.419 -0.006 8 122242 1910 1956 47 1.000 0.381 0.717 2.843 0.410 0.025 9 122251 1868 1994 127 1.000 0.302 0.978 4.431 0.317 -0.010 10 122252 1896 1994 99 1.000 0.352 1.687 7.300 0.368 -0.014 11 122261 1890 1994 105 1.000 0.271 0.570 3.038 0.293 0.005 12 122262 1864 1994 131 1.000 0.404 1.690 7.424 0.400 -0.004 13 122271 1870 1994 125 1.000 0.368 1.638 6.653 0.362 0.025 14 122272 1850 1994 145 1.000 0.410 1.761 8.122 0.403 -0.084 15 122281 1872 1994 123 1.000 0.370 1.156 4.505 0.367 -0.021 16 122282 1850 1994 145 1.000 0.403 1.689 7.662 0.379 0.000 17 122291 1882 1994 113 1.000 0.474 6.176 51.780 0.282 0.017 18 122292 1883 1994 112 1.000 0.262 1.298 5.257 0.266 -0.058 19 122301 1902 1994 93 1.000 0.323 0.587 3.163 0.355 -0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 122302 1893 1994 102 1.000 0.414 2.821 16.150 0.372 0.013 21 122311 1873 1994 122 1.000 0.281 1.202 6.042 0.281 -0.015 22 122312 1853 1994 142 1.000 0.315 0.973 6.122 0.316 -0.005 23 122321 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.291 0.461 2.942 0.348 -0.053 24 122322 1873 1994 122 1.000 0.417 1.598 6.535 0.427 -0.104 25 122331 1902 1994 93 1.000 0.302 1.124 5.496 0.314 0.004 26 122332 1925 1994 70 1.000 0.258 0.497 3.372 0.280 0.034 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 112 1.000 0.353 1.539 8.714 0.349 -0.012 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.000 0.072 1.248 10.130 0.049 0.034 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 1.000 0.338 1.179 5.769 0.352 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 24 0.000 0.107 0.973 4.112 0.090 0.030 MINIMUM VALUE 46 1.000 0.258 0.401 2.843 0.266 -0.104 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 1.000 0.296 0.717 3.551 0.309 -0.021 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.404 1.690 7.662 0.400 0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 145 1.000 0.518 6.176 51.780 0.427 0.034 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.305 0.130 0.007 0.167 2.971 -0.056 0.694 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.056 SERIES 122241 AND 122291 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.694 SERIES 122212 AND 122262 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.53 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1875. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 1. 136. 276. 300. RBAR 0.188 0.254 0.351 0.388 SDEV 0.000 0.165 0.143 0.146 SERR 0.000 0.014 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.704 0.886 0.933 0.942 NSS 10.3 22.8 25.6 25.4 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1850 1994 145 0.975 0.194 0.457 3.283 0.226 -0.051 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.503 0.304 -0.043 61 84 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.66 1.01 1.08 1.74 19.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.11 0.76 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.050 -0.023 0.057 0.083 -0.074 0.020 -0.010 0.148 0.027 -0.015 PACF -0.050 -0.026 0.054 0.089 -0.063 0.014 -0.021 0.150 0.052 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.166 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.169 0.169 0.169 0.173 0.173 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.023 0.060 0.083 -0.069 0.016 -0.001 0.149 0.034 -0.011 PACF -0.001 -0.023 0.060 0.083 -0.067 0.016 -0.014 0.154 0.044 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.166 0.166 0.166 0.167 0.168 0.169 0.169 0.169 0.172 0.173 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1850 1994 145 0.975 0.200 0.270 2.942 0.193 0.245 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.243 0.057 0.086 0.084 -0.038 0.015 0.039 0.159 0.074 0.031 PACF 0.243 -0.003 0.077 0.049 -0.078 0.038 0.021 0.158 0.005 -0.003 95% C.L. 0.166 0.176 0.176 0.177 0.178 0.179 0.179 0.179 0.183 0.184 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.060 0.244 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES