RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS124T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS124T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 011 1 Balschaya Kamenka river DENSITY_LATE LAGM - 011 2 Russia Dahurian larch 60 7120-9350 1569 1990 - 011 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 011011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 56 IN 4 GAPS / 1825 1825 / 1830 1830 / 1833 1833 / 1859 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 011012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 3 GAPS / 1825 1825 / 1884 1885 / 1889 1889 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 011051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1867 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 011061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 54 IN 6 GAPS / 1702 1702 / 1810 1856 / 1869 1869 / 1874 1874 / / 1884 1885 / 1912 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 011062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1675 1675 / 1718 1718 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 011071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 60 IN 7 GAPS / 1772 1772 / 1807 1807 / 1812 1812 / 1820 1844 / / 1857 1885 / 1907 1907 / 1912 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 011072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 62 IN 9 GAPS / 1773 1773 / 1807 1807 / 1812 1812 / 1820 1844 / / 1857 1885 / 1890 1890 / 1902 1902 / 1907 1907 / / 1912 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 011081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1867 1867 / 1874 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 011112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1885 1885 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 011121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1884 1884 / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 011122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1885 1885 / 1971 1971 / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 011131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 54 IN 6 GAPS / 1718 1718 / 1807 1855 / 1867 1867 / 1869 1869 / / 1884 1884 / 1889 1889 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 011132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 92 IN 2 GAPS / 1798 1888 / 1913 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 011141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1830 1830 / 1833 1833 / 1884 1884 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 011142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1830 1830 / 1884 1884 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 011151 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 5 GAPS / 1807 1807 / 1812 1812 / 1819 1819 / 1826 1826 / / 1830 1830 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 011152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 21 IN 6 GAPS / 1746 1746 / 1807 1807 / 1812 1812 / 1825 1826 / / 1830 1830 / 1866 1880 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 011161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 6 GAPS / 1812 1812 / 1821 1821 / 1825 1825 / 1833 1833 / / 1885 1885 / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 011162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 31 011171 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1884 1884 / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 32 011172 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 4 GAPS / 1742 1742 / 1820 1820 / 1825 1826 / 1830 1830 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 33 011191 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 71 IN 9 GAPS / 1718 1718 / 1742 1742 / 1812 1812 / 1820 1820 / / 1825 1825 / 1833 1833 / 1843 1843 / 1872 1923 / / 1964 1975 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 34 011192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 80 IN 10 GAPS / 1718 1718 / 1742 1742 / 1773 1773 / 1812 1812 / / 1820 1820 / 1826 1826 / 1833 1833 / 1843 1843 / / 1863 1923 / 1964 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 35 011201 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 222 IN 4 GAPS / 1642 1642 / 1706 1924 / 1947 1947 / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 36 011202 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 128 IN 8 GAPS / 1642 1642 / 1710 1711 / 1717 1717 / 1732 1732 / / 1741 1757 / 1800 1903 / 1912 1912 / 1927 1927 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 39 011221 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 27 IN 11 GAPS / 1620 1620 / 1819 1834 / 1837 1837 / 1839 1839 / / 1870 1870 / 1876 1876 / 1880 1880 / 1885 1886 / / 1889 1889 / 1912 1912 / 1917 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 40 011222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 50 IN 8 GAPS / 1617 1617 / 1819 1855 / 1867 1867 / 1884 1885 / / 1889 1889 / 1912 1912 / 1916 1916 / 1946 1951 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 41 011231 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 41 IN 10 GAPS / 1718 1718 / 1826 1826 / 1836 1847 / 1865 1885 / / 1889 1889 / 1898 1898 / 1907 1907 / 1912 1912 / / 1966 1966 / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 42 011232 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 29 IN 8 GAPS / 1718 1718 / 1819 1820 / 1825 1826 / 1830 1830 / / 1847 1847 / 1866 1885 / 1889 1889 / 1907 1907 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 011011 1753 1964 212 6.185 1.024 0.189 2.297 0.170 0.213 2 011012 1752 1910 159 6.692 1.127 -0.819 3.000 0.167 0.332 3 011021 1930 1990 61 7.483 1.094 -0.639 3.455 0.184 -0.094 4 011022 1920 1990 71 7.005 1.288 -0.454 2.772 0.203 0.111 5 011031 1904 1990 87 7.167 1.115 -0.764 3.419 0.162 0.205 6 011032 1914 1990 77 7.053 1.145 -0.545 2.655 0.165 0.178 7 011051 1861 1990 130 6.182 1.125 -0.420 2.892 0.189 0.221 8 011052 1907 1990 84 6.651 0.922 -1.052 4.645 0.158 0.051 9 011061 1694 1990 297 6.348 1.029 -0.395 2.565 0.166 0.276 10 011062 1647 1785 139 6.230 1.112 -0.095 2.279 0.146 0.490 11 011071 1723 1978 256 7.134 0.921 -0.868 3.157 0.142 0.079 12 011072 1746 1990 245 6.904 1.182 -0.484 2.292 0.163 0.336 13 011081 1853 1990 138 6.421 1.052 -0.491 2.563 0.166 0.261 14 011082 1878 1990 113 6.568 0.965 -0.716 3.189 0.157 0.165 15 011091 1899 1990 92 7.468 1.000 -0.751 3.659 0.143 0.076 16 011092 1885 1990 106 7.214 1.048 -0.772 3.490 0.141 0.235 17 011101 1897 1990 94 7.089 0.854 -0.648 3.246 0.139 0.023 18 011102 1906 1990 85 7.454 0.874 -1.118 4.615 0.135 -0.098 19 011111 1877 1990 114 7.041 0.913 -0.777 3.247 0.143 0.101 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 011112 1878 1990 113 6.571 1.099 -0.345 2.547 0.184 0.133 21 011121 1812 1989 178 6.632 1.116 -0.146 2.755 0.194 0.077 22 011122 1842 1989 148 6.708 1.271 -0.259 2.679 0.189 0.305 23 011131 1707 1990 284 6.667 1.007 -0.339 3.035 0.147 0.265 24 011132 1697 1990 294 6.405 1.018 -0.195 2.880 0.157 0.273 25 011141 1792 1965 174 6.912 1.140 -0.446 2.390 0.143 0.449 26 011142 1796 1965 170 6.801 0.967 -0.563 2.595 0.152 0.153 27 011151 1723 1990 268 6.817 1.059 -0.666 2.947 0.170 0.149 28 011152 1744 1990 247 6.751 1.134 -0.302 2.568 0.155 0.370 29 011161 1809 1990 182 6.702 1.052 -0.707 2.970 0.165 0.156 30 011162 1839 1990 152 6.922 0.939 -0.993 3.878 0.145 0.104 31 011171 1767 1989 223 6.623 1.123 -0.401 2.548 0.183 0.176 32 011172 1725 1954 230 7.109 0.995 -0.795 3.016 0.138 0.253 33 011191 1704 1990 287 6.704 0.956 -0.381 3.001 0.148 0.234 34 011192 1714 1989 276 6.306 1.045 0.083 2.575 0.155 0.359 35 011201 1600 1990 391 5.970 1.000 0.031 2.380 0.168 0.245 36 011202 1615 1990 376 6.070 0.977 -0.272 2.436 0.175 0.135 37 011211 1859 1990 132 6.709 1.101 -0.520 2.790 0.174 0.146 38 011212 1845 1990 146 6.139 1.212 -0.049 2.138 0.206 0.130 39 011221 1613 1990 378 7.126 1.095 -0.353 2.601 0.156 0.211 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 011222 1569 1989 421 7.118 1.164 -0.447 2.776 0.166 0.223 41 011231 1659 1989 331 6.082 1.071 -0.069 2.321 0.160 0.378 42 011232 1657 1990 334 6.346 0.985 -0.364 2.623 0.162 0.204 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 42 FROM 1569 TO 1990 422 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 172 6.726 1.055 -0.479 2.902 0.163 0.197 STANDARD DEVIATION 74 0.401 0.099 0.306 0.559 0.018 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 162 6.706 1.052 -0.451 2.774 0.162 0.204 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 108 0.648 0.138 0.414 0.594 0.023 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 60 5.970 0.854 -1.118 2.138 0.135 -0.098 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 6.405 0.985 -0.716 2.563 0.147 0.130 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 221 7.053 1.123 -0.302 3.157 0.170 0.265 MAXIMUM VALUE 371 7.483 1.288 0.189 4.645 0.206 0.490 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 830 0.650 0.104 0.004 -0.534 3.409 0.242 0.911 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.242 SERIES 011011 AND 011032 51 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.911 SERIES 011021 AND 011111 61 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.40 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 31.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. CORR 6. 6. 21. 28. 66. 105. 171. 190. 253. 325. RBAR 0.635 0.632 0.759 0.762 0.772 0.760 0.733 0.731 0.764 0.759 SDEV 0.153 0.185 0.072 0.103 0.092 0.081 0.135 0.139 0.104 0.111 SERR 0.063 0.075 0.016 0.020 0.011 0.008 0.010 0.010 0.007 0.006 EPS 0.896 0.917 0.965 0.976 0.982 0.984 0.983 0.984 0.988 0.989 NSS 4.9 6.5 8.7 12.5 16.5 19.1 20.7 22.5 25.4 29.5 YEAR 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 378. 496. 595. RBAR 0.742 0.703 0.667 SDEV 0.099 0.112 0.119 SERR 0.005 0.005 0.005 EPS 0.990 0.989 0.987 NSS 33.9 38.0 39.2 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1569 1990 422 6.647 0.882 -0.462 2.905 0.144 0.143 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.032 0.013 0.656 59 363 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.10 0.26 1.00 1.05 1.30 8.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 172. 163. 61. 113. 276. 421. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.142 0.107 0.063 0.041 0.000 0.041 0.050 -0.012 -0.063 0.009 PACF 0.142 0.088 0.038 0.020 -0.017 0.036 0.040 -0.031 -0.071 0.024 95% C.L. 0.097 0.099 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.102 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.029 0.130 0.089 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 011011 1 1.95290470 0.03672950 0.00000000 5.87652731 2 011012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01372683 7.73729467 3 011021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01331729 7.89595079 4 011022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00197887 6.93354940 5 011031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00128636 7.11006689 6 011032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00269967 6.94770002 7 011051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01205565 5.37059212 8 011052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01248476 7.18131685 9 011061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00280401 6.73456717 10 011062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01081875 6.97957325 11 011071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00199341 6.74272966 12 011072 1 1.87446678 0.02567490 0.00000000 6.47207451 13 011081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00884545 5.77934217 14 011082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00381171 6.78549767 15 011091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00199528 7.37482786 16 011092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00811341 7.64793539 17 011101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00098327 7.13564157 18 011102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00198437 7.36855459 19 011111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00214479 6.91737604 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 011112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00091318 6.60211134 21 011121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00046013 6.65745926 22 011122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00717484 7.20239019 23 011131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007569 6.67045307 24 011132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00209157 6.74420834 25 011141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01072399 5.94896317 26 011142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00234180 6.58470917 27 011151 1 0.38727534 0.00670649 0.00000000 6.61515617 28 011152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00405864 6.14309120 29 011161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00085416 6.73114824 30 011162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00097897 6.83822966 31 011171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00252760 6.88900042 32 011172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00412552 6.59601164 33 011191 1 1.99305820 0.00327949 0.00000000 5.20704460 34 011192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00108170 6.04378223 35 011201 1 0.88947362 0.00707130 0.00000000 5.42799616 36 011202 1 0.94585830 0.00348634 0.00000000 5.38279676 37 011211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00120434 6.62938118 38 011212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00503660 6.50943708 39 011221 1 1.36074758 0.00871543 0.00000000 6.61494160 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 40 011222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00284774 7.65093517 41 011231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00462798 6.76371861 42 011232 1 1.02253640 0.00706455 0.00000000 5.90574932 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 011011 1753 1964 212 1.000 0.149 -0.082 2.397 0.163 0.124 2 011012 1752 1910 159 1.000 0.154 -0.366 2.912 0.167 0.154 3 011021 1930 1990 61 1.000 0.144 -0.449 3.288 0.181 -0.135 4 011022 1920 1990 71 1.000 0.183 -0.479 2.826 0.200 0.109 5 011031 1904 1990 87 1.000 0.155 -0.778 3.466 0.160 0.201 6 011032 1914 1990 77 1.000 0.162 -0.544 2.706 0.163 0.176 7 011051 1861 1990 130 1.000 0.170 -0.682 3.296 0.189 0.133 8 011052 1907 1990 84 1.000 0.133 -0.915 4.374 0.156 -0.073 9 011061 1694 1990 297 1.000 0.158 -0.381 2.534 0.164 0.229 10 011062 1647 1785 139 1.000 0.169 0.214 2.917 0.151 0.380 11 011071 1723 1978 256 1.000 0.133 -0.661 2.798 0.139 0.164 12 011072 1746 1990 245 1.000 0.162 -0.250 2.290 0.159 0.277 13 011081 1853 1990 138 1.000 0.159 -0.520 2.775 0.168 0.189 14 011082 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.146 -0.765 3.240 0.156 0.147 15 011091 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.133 -0.777 3.764 0.142 0.076 16 011092 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.141 -0.859 3.620 0.140 0.162 17 011101 1897 1990 94 1.000 0.120 -0.674 3.278 0.137 0.020 18 011102 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.117 -1.134 4.758 0.134 -0.097 19 011111 1877 1990 114 1.000 0.129 -0.782 3.292 0.142 0.098 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 011112 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.170 -0.363 2.526 0.184 0.155 21 011121 1812 1989 178 1.000 0.169 -0.122 2.695 0.195 0.082 22 011122 1842 1989 148 1.000 0.188 -0.183 2.646 0.186 0.307 23 011131 1707 1990 284 1.000 0.151 -0.381 2.915 0.149 0.262 24 011132 1697 1990 294 1.000 0.149 -0.161 2.993 0.148 0.249 25 011141 1792 1965 174 1.000 0.148 -0.470 2.533 0.143 0.316 26 011142 1796 1965 170 1.000 0.142 -0.559 2.502 0.151 0.157 27 011151 1723 1990 268 1.000 0.157 -0.602 2.813 0.168 0.170 28 011152 1744 1990 247 1.000 0.169 -0.356 2.624 0.155 0.380 29 011161 1809 1990 182 1.000 0.161 -0.635 2.750 0.165 0.217 30 011162 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.136 -0.967 3.781 0.144 0.114 31 011171 1767 1989 223 1.000 0.170 -0.415 2.593 0.184 0.164 32 011172 1725 1954 230 1.000 0.138 -0.907 3.106 0.138 0.230 33 011191 1704 1990 287 1.000 0.141 -0.189 3.044 0.142 0.235 34 011192 1714 1989 276 1.000 0.163 0.049 2.683 0.151 0.340 35 011201 1600 1990 391 1.000 0.150 -0.142 2.742 0.155 0.188 36 011202 1615 1990 376 1.000 0.158 -0.198 2.546 0.166 0.171 37 011211 1859 1990 132 1.000 0.164 -0.516 2.766 0.173 0.145 38 011212 1845 1990 146 1.000 0.195 -0.020 2.176 0.205 0.092 39 011221 1613 1990 378 1.000 0.158 -0.455 2.465 0.154 0.274 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 011222 1569 1989 421 1.000 0.160 -0.442 2.720 0.163 0.199 41 011231 1659 1989 331 1.000 0.163 -0.207 2.465 0.165 0.238 42 011232 1657 1990 334 1.000 0.155 -0.305 2.487 0.166 0.139 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 198 1.000 0.154 -0.463 2.931 0.161 0.170 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.000 0.017 0.298 0.532 0.018 0.111 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 172 1.000 0.156 -0.452 2.771 0.160 0.167 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 163 0.000 0.020 0.467 0.694 0.020 0.111 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.117 -1.134 2.176 0.134 -0.135 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.142 -0.674 2.546 0.148 0.124 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 276 1.000 0.163 -0.207 3.240 0.168 0.235 MAXIMUM VALUE 421 1.000 0.195 0.214 4.758 0.205 0.380 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 011011 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 011012 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 011021 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 011022 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 011031 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 011032 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 011051 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 011052 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 011061 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 011062 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 011071 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 011072 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 011081 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 011082 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 011091 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 011092 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 011101 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 011102 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 011111 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 011112 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 011121 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 011122 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 011131 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 011132 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 011141 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 011142 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 011151 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 011152 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 011161 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 011162 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 011171 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 011172 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 33 011191 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 34 011192 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 35 011201 -67 261 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 36 011202 -67 251 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 37 011211 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 38 011212 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 39 011221 -67 253 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 40 011222 -67 282 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 41 011231 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 42 011232 -67 223 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 011011 1753 1964 212 1.000 0.148 -0.025 2.464 0.163 0.101 2 011012 1752 1910 159 1.000 0.151 -0.345 3.219 0.166 0.106 3 011021 1930 1990 61 1.000 0.140 -0.543 3.396 0.181 -0.197 4 011022 1920 1990 71 0.999 0.170 -0.643 3.014 0.200 -0.024 5 011031 1904 1990 87 0.999 0.134 -0.888 3.586 0.160 -0.142 6 011032 1914 1990 77 0.999 0.142 -0.873 3.284 0.163 -0.043 7 011051 1861 1990 130 1.000 0.161 -0.640 3.249 0.189 0.018 8 011052 1907 1990 84 1.000 0.130 -0.822 3.831 0.156 -0.144 9 011061 1694 1990 297 1.000 0.156 -0.383 2.538 0.164 0.199 10 011062 1647 1785 139 0.999 0.162 0.160 3.033 0.150 0.333 11 011071 1723 1978 256 1.000 0.128 -0.682 2.927 0.139 0.100 12 011072 1746 1990 245 0.999 0.155 -0.332 2.414 0.159 0.196 13 011081 1853 1990 138 1.000 0.147 -0.645 2.876 0.168 0.046 14 011082 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.141 -0.799 3.080 0.156 0.073 15 011091 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.128 -0.892 3.949 0.142 -0.013 16 011092 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.122 -1.109 4.710 0.139 -0.101 17 011101 1897 1990 94 1.000 0.113 -0.884 3.640 0.137 -0.118 18 011102 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.113 -1.214 4.876 0.134 -0.169 19 011111 1877 1990 114 1.000 0.126 -0.820 3.311 0.142 0.057 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 011112 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.163 -0.475 2.586 0.184 0.079 21 011121 1812 1989 178 1.000 0.158 -0.379 2.745 0.195 -0.047 22 011122 1842 1989 148 0.999 0.164 -0.405 2.943 0.186 0.094 23 011131 1707 1990 284 1.000 0.145 -0.420 2.963 0.149 0.193 24 011132 1697 1990 294 1.000 0.144 -0.208 3.102 0.148 0.194 25 011141 1792 1965 174 0.999 0.141 -0.596 2.658 0.143 0.257 26 011142 1796 1965 170 1.000 0.140 -0.618 2.592 0.151 0.124 27 011151 1723 1990 268 1.000 0.156 -0.605 2.818 0.168 0.160 28 011152 1744 1990 247 0.999 0.153 -0.356 2.983 0.155 0.252 29 011161 1809 1990 182 1.000 0.153 -0.701 2.940 0.165 0.116 30 011162 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.135 -0.903 3.579 0.144 0.082 31 011171 1767 1989 223 0.999 0.165 -0.396 2.789 0.184 0.114 32 011172 1725 1954 230 1.000 0.136 -0.835 3.077 0.138 0.194 33 011191 1704 1990 287 1.000 0.138 -0.256 3.036 0.142 0.212 34 011192 1714 1989 276 0.999 0.156 -0.020 2.712 0.151 0.285 35 011201 1600 1990 391 1.000 0.147 -0.272 2.634 0.155 0.169 36 011202 1615 1990 376 1.000 0.151 -0.343 2.501 0.166 0.108 37 011211 1859 1990 132 0.999 0.158 -0.480 2.891 0.173 0.076 38 011212 1845 1990 146 0.999 0.189 -0.013 2.441 0.205 0.043 39 011221 1613 1990 378 1.000 0.153 -0.439 2.569 0.154 0.226 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 011222 1569 1989 421 1.000 0.155 -0.490 2.896 0.163 0.146 41 011231 1659 1989 331 1.000 0.156 -0.270 2.682 0.165 0.171 42 011232 1657 1990 334 1.000 0.154 -0.309 2.514 0.166 0.133 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 198 1.000 0.147 -0.528 3.049 0.161 0.087 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.000 0.015 0.302 0.547 0.018 0.128 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 172 1.000 0.149 -0.485 2.942 0.160 0.104 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 163 0.000 0.017 0.456 0.591 0.020 0.175 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.999 0.113 -1.214 2.414 0.134 -0.197 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 0.999 0.138 -0.799 2.658 0.148 0.018 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 276 1.000 0.156 -0.343 3.249 0.168 0.193 MAXIMUM VALUE 421 1.000 0.189 0.160 4.876 0.205 0.333 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 830 0.695 0.081 0.003 -0.373 3.300 0.367 0.925 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.367 SERIES 011032 AND 011172 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.925 SERIES 011021 AND 011022 61 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.40 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 31.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. CORR 6. 6. 21. 28. 66. 105. 171. 190. 253. 325. RBAR 0.638 0.647 0.774 0.798 0.787 0.765 0.744 0.747 0.772 0.778 SDEV 0.161 0.169 0.070 0.066 0.078 0.079 0.111 0.110 0.102 0.093 SERR 0.066 0.069 0.015 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.006 0.005 EPS 0.897 0.922 0.967 0.980 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.985 0.989 0.990 NSS 4.9 6.5 8.7 12.5 16.5 19.1 20.7 22.5 25.4 29.5 YEAR 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 378. 496. 595. RBAR 0.756 0.707 0.689 SDEV 0.094 0.106 0.114 SERR 0.005 0.005 0.005 EPS 0.991 0.989 0.989 NSS 33.9 38.0 39.2 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1569 1990 422 0.998 0.128 -0.579 2.879 0.143 0.094 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.017 -0.004 0.073 165 257 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.43 1.00 1.07 1.50 23.80 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.86 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.093 0.057 0.032 0.017 -0.043 -0.004 -0.001 -0.071 -0.111 -0.023 PACF 0.093 0.049 0.023 0.010 -0.048 0.002 0.003 -0.069 -0.100 0.000 95% C.L. 0.097 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.100 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.011 0.093 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.038 0.109 -0.005 0.011 -0.100 -0.015 -0.053 -0.038 -0.099 -0.037 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.038 2 0.034 0.108 3 0.035 0.108 -0.013 4 0.035 0.108 -0.013 0.000 5 0.035 0.107 -0.002 0.004 -0.099 6 0.034 0.107 -0.002 0.005 -0.099 -0.009 7 0.034 0.104 -0.002 0.005 -0.096 -0.008 -0.032 8 0.033 0.103 -0.005 0.005 -0.096 -0.004 -0.031 -0.035 9 0.030 0.101 -0.005 -0.004 -0.095 -0.005 -0.022 -0.032 -0.088 10 0.027 0.100 -0.006 -0.004 -0.099 -0.005 -0.022 -0.028 -0.087 -0.034 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3471.62 3473.02 3470.10 3472.03 3474.03 3471.84 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3473.80 3475.37 3476.87 3475.57 3477.07 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.034 0.108 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.30 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.32 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.034 0.109 0.007 0.012 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 011011 2 0.022 0.093 0.082 2 011012 2 0.014 0.108 -0.008 3 011021 2 0.066 -0.174 0.121 4 011022 2 0.020 -0.021 0.133 5 011031 2 0.026 -0.136 0.072 6 011032 2 0.015 -0.040 0.090 7 011051 2 0.008 0.017 0.080 8 011052 2 0.047 -0.123 0.156 9 011061 2 0.074 0.163 0.183 10 011062 2 0.120 0.327 0.021 11 011071 2 0.013 0.094 0.057 12 011072 2 0.081 0.157 0.208 13 011081 2 0.016 0.041 0.115 14 011082 2 0.017 0.068 0.080 15 011091 2 0.018 -0.012 0.087 16 011092 2 0.020 -0.097 0.062 17 011101 2 0.021 -0.113 0.059 18 011102 2 0.042 -0.153 0.096 19 011111 2 0.014 0.057 -0.004 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 011112 2 0.036 0.066 0.162 21 011121 2 0.029 -0.040 0.138 22 011122 2 0.065 0.072 0.228 23 011131 2 0.077 0.156 0.194 24 011132 2 0.089 0.153 0.211 25 011141 2 0.080 0.228 0.113 26 011142 2 0.023 0.114 0.086 27 011151 2 0.043 0.139 0.131 28 011152 2 0.079 0.221 0.127 29 011161 2 0.031 0.102 0.129 30 011162 2 0.024 0.079 0.044 31 011171 2 0.036 0.098 0.145 32 011172 2 0.043 0.180 0.072 33 011191 2 0.053 0.196 0.078 34 011192 2 0.115 0.236 0.171 35 011201 2 0.039 0.156 0.080 36 011202 2 0.038 0.098 0.093 37 011211 2 0.010 0.072 0.051 38 011212 2 0.053 0.034 0.222 39 011221 2 0.081 0.200 0.119 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 40 011222 2 0.031 0.138 0.056 41 011231 2 0.046 0.155 0.099 42 011232 2 0.028 0.122 0.084 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.043 0.077 0.108 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.029 0.115 0.057 MEDIAN 2 0.036 0.096 0.095 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.045 0.139 0.066 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.008 -0.174 -0.008 LOWER HINGE 2 0.020 0.017 0.072 UPPER HINGE 2 0.065 0.156 0.138 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.120 0.327 0.228 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 011011 1753 1964 212 1.000 0.146 -0.004 2.427 0.171 -0.006 2 011012 1752 1910 159 1.000 0.150 -0.277 3.190 0.173 0.000 3 011021 1930 1990 61 1.000 0.137 -0.603 4.029 0.162 -0.013 4 011022 1920 1990 71 1.000 0.168 -0.698 3.269 0.198 -0.006 5 011031 1904 1990 87 1.000 0.132 -0.878 3.743 0.150 -0.002 6 011032 1914 1990 77 1.000 0.141 -0.900 3.279 0.159 0.004 7 011051 1861 1990 130 1.000 0.160 -0.681 3.332 0.192 -0.003 8 011052 1907 1990 84 1.000 0.127 -0.875 4.202 0.144 0.005 9 011061 1694 1990 297 1.000 0.150 -0.440 2.604 0.177 -0.009 10 011062 1647 1785 139 1.000 0.153 0.082 3.031 0.172 -0.002 11 011071 1723 1978 256 1.000 0.127 -0.684 2.956 0.145 0.001 12 011072 1746 1990 245 1.000 0.148 -0.464 2.569 0.171 -0.005 13 011081 1853 1990 138 1.000 0.146 -0.653 3.055 0.169 -0.001 14 011082 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.140 -0.821 3.198 0.160 0.003 15 011091 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.127 -0.936 4.072 0.139 0.004 16 011092 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.121 -1.132 4.758 0.133 0.004 17 011101 1897 1990 94 1.000 0.112 -0.920 3.760 0.130 0.002 18 011102 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.111 -1.179 4.834 0.122 0.004 19 011111 1877 1990 114 1.000 0.126 -0.847 3.371 0.145 -0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 011112 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.161 -0.453 2.698 0.186 0.006 21 011121 1812 1989 178 1.000 0.156 -0.381 2.891 0.187 0.013 22 011122 1842 1989 148 1.000 0.159 -0.462 2.990 0.188 0.015 23 011131 1707 1990 284 1.000 0.140 -0.490 3.085 0.160 -0.013 24 011132 1697 1990 294 1.000 0.138 -0.411 3.018 0.160 -0.022 25 011141 1792 1965 174 1.000 0.136 -0.635 2.917 0.158 -0.005 26 011142 1796 1965 170 1.000 0.138 -0.636 2.702 0.159 -0.001 27 011151 1723 1990 268 1.000 0.153 -0.628 2.837 0.180 -0.003 28 011152 1744 1990 247 1.000 0.147 -0.461 2.957 0.172 -0.003 29 011161 1809 1990 182 1.000 0.151 -0.664 2.987 0.174 0.002 30 011162 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.135 -0.929 3.618 0.149 0.004 31 011171 1767 1989 223 1.000 0.162 -0.383 2.721 0.192 -0.006 32 011172 1725 1954 230 1.000 0.133 -0.886 3.133 0.150 0.000 33 011191 1704 1990 287 1.000 0.135 -0.287 3.106 0.156 -0.004 34 011192 1714 1989 276 1.000 0.147 -0.152 2.779 0.169 -0.015 35 011201 1600 1990 391 1.000 0.144 -0.307 2.605 0.168 -0.006 36 011202 1615 1990 376 1.000 0.150 -0.354 2.465 0.176 -0.012 37 011211 1859 1990 132 1.000 0.158 -0.477 2.932 0.178 0.001 38 011212 1845 1990 146 1.000 0.184 -0.085 2.727 0.204 0.009 39 011221 1613 1990 378 1.000 0.148 -0.464 2.654 0.168 -0.016 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 011222 1569 1989 421 1.000 0.153 -0.486 2.932 0.174 -0.005 41 011231 1659 1989 331 1.000 0.153 -0.299 2.538 0.179 -0.008 42 011232 1657 1990 334 1.000 0.152 -0.321 2.499 0.175 -0.006 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 198 1.000 0.144 -0.561 3.130 0.166 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.000 0.015 0.290 0.575 0.018 0.007 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 172 1.000 0.147 -0.488 2.988 0.169 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 163 0.000 0.018 0.440 0.558 0.021 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.111 -1.179 2.427 0.122 -0.022 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.135 -0.821 2.721 0.156 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 276 1.000 0.153 -0.381 3.279 0.177 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 421 1.000 0.184 0.082 4.834 0.204 0.015 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 830 0.705 0.079 0.003 -0.527 3.274 0.402 0.919 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.402 SERIES 011032 AND 011172 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.919 SERIES 011021 AND 011022 61 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.40 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 31.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. CORR 6. 6. 21. 28. 66. 105. 171. 190. 253. 325. RBAR 0.667 0.646 0.775 0.818 0.804 0.792 0.778 0.762 0.781 0.787 SDEV 0.145 0.169 0.075 0.055 0.067 0.066 0.093 0.111 0.099 0.089 SERR 0.059 0.069 0.016 0.010 0.008 0.006 0.007 0.008 0.006 0.005 EPS 0.908 0.922 0.968 0.982 0.985 0.986 0.986 0.986 0.989 0.991 NSS 4.9 6.5 8.7 12.5 16.5 19.1 20.7 22.5 25.4 29.5 YEAR 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 378. 496. 595. RBAR 0.766 0.724 0.710 SDEV 0.087 0.091 0.103 SERR 0.004 0.004 0.004 EPS 0.991 0.990 0.990 NSS 33.9 38.0 39.2 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1569 1990 422 0.999 0.127 -0.593 2.849 0.152 -0.041 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.018 -0.004 0.068 166 256 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.53 1.00 1.08 1.61 5.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.86 0.99 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.041 -0.063 0.021 0.008 -0.053 0.002 0.024 -0.060 -0.092 0.011 PACF -0.041 -0.065 0.016 0.006 -0.051 -0.002 0.018 -0.057 -0.095 -0.007 95% C.L. 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.000 0.013 0.003 -0.050 -0.004 0.013 -0.063 -0.099 -0.002 PACF 0.001 0.000 0.013 0.003 -0.050 -0.004 0.013 -0.062 -0.099 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.099 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.001 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1569 1990 422 0.999 0.127 -0.548 2.846 0.146 0.041 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.041 0.107 0.016 0.012 -0.047 -0.013 -0.005 -0.068 -0.109 -0.018 PACF 0.041 0.106 0.007 0.000 -0.051 -0.011 0.006 -0.065 -0.106 0.001 95% C.L. 0.097 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.100 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.013 0.037 0.107 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.49 MINUTES