RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS124N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS124N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 011 1 Balschaya Kamenka river DENSITY_MINIMUM LAGM - 011 2 Russia Dahurian larch 60 7120-9350 1569 1990 - 011 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 011011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 61 IN 5 GAPS / 1783 1787 / 1825 1825 / 1830 1830 / 1833 1833 / / 1859 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 011012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 3 GAPS / 1825 1825 / 1884 1885 / 1889 1889 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 011051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1867 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 011061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 54 IN 6 GAPS / 1702 1702 / 1810 1856 / 1869 1869 / 1874 1874 / / 1884 1885 / 1912 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 011062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1675 1675 / 1718 1718 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 011071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 60 IN 7 GAPS / 1772 1772 / 1807 1807 / 1812 1812 / 1820 1844 / / 1857 1885 / 1907 1907 / 1912 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 011072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 62 IN 9 GAPS / 1773 1773 / 1807 1807 / 1812 1812 / 1820 1844 / / 1857 1885 / 1890 1890 / 1902 1902 / 1907 1907 / / 1912 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 011081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1867 1867 / 1874 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 011082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 011112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1885 1885 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 011121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1884 1884 / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 011122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 4 GAPS / 1885 1885 / 1919 1924 / 1971 1971 / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 011131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 54 IN 6 GAPS / 1718 1718 / 1807 1855 / 1867 1867 / 1869 1869 / / 1884 1884 / 1889 1889 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 011132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 92 IN 2 GAPS / 1798 1888 / 1913 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 011141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1830 1830 / 1833 1833 / 1884 1884 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 011142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1830 1830 / 1884 1884 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 011151 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 5 GAPS / 1807 1807 / 1812 1812 / 1819 1819 / 1826 1826 / / 1830 1830 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 011152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 21 IN 6 GAPS / 1746 1746 / 1807 1807 / 1812 1812 / 1825 1826 / / 1830 1830 / 1866 1880 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 011161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 6 GAPS / 1812 1812 / 1821 1821 / 1825 1825 / 1833 1833 / / 1885 1885 / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 011162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 31 011171 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1884 1884 / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 32 011172 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 4 GAPS / 1742 1742 / 1820 1820 / 1825 1826 / 1830 1830 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 33 011191 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 71 IN 9 GAPS / 1718 1718 / 1742 1742 / 1812 1812 / 1820 1820 / / 1825 1825 / 1833 1833 / 1843 1843 / 1872 1923 / / 1964 1975 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 34 011192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 80 IN 10 GAPS / 1718 1718 / 1742 1742 / 1773 1773 / 1812 1812 / / 1820 1820 / 1826 1826 / 1833 1833 / 1843 1843 / / 1863 1923 / 1964 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 35 011201 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 222 IN 4 GAPS / 1642 1642 / 1706 1924 / 1947 1947 / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 36 011202 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 128 IN 8 GAPS / 1642 1642 / 1710 1711 / 1717 1717 / 1732 1732 / / 1741 1757 / 1800 1903 / 1912 1912 / 1927 1927 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 39 011221 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 27 IN 11 GAPS / 1620 1620 / 1819 1834 / 1837 1837 / 1839 1839 / / 1870 1870 / 1876 1876 / 1880 1880 / 1885 1886 / / 1889 1889 / 1912 1912 / 1917 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 40 011222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 50 IN 8 GAPS / 1617 1617 / 1819 1855 / 1867 1867 / 1884 1885 / / 1889 1889 / 1912 1912 / 1916 1916 / 1946 1951 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 41 011231 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 41 IN 10 GAPS / 1718 1718 / 1826 1826 / 1836 1847 / 1865 1885 / / 1889 1889 / 1898 1898 / 1907 1907 / 1912 1912 / / 1966 1966 / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 42 011232 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 29 IN 8 GAPS / 1718 1718 / 1819 1820 / 1825 1826 / 1830 1830 / / 1847 1847 / 1866 1885 / 1889 1889 / 1907 1907 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 011011 1753 1964 212 0.329 0.042 1.198 4.073 0.090 0.518 2 011012 1752 1910 159 0.337 0.042 0.567 3.000 0.087 0.586 3 011021 1930 1990 61 0.284 0.029 -0.050 3.186 0.069 0.625 4 011022 1920 1990 71 0.282 0.033 0.909 8.072 0.071 0.251 5 011031 1904 1990 87 0.316 0.031 1.252 6.686 0.071 0.139 6 011032 1914 1990 77 0.305 0.026 0.994 6.242 0.060 0.350 7 011051 1861 1990 130 0.244 0.032 1.287 5.141 0.085 0.550 8 011052 1907 1990 84 0.247 0.030 -0.372 3.784 0.068 0.673 9 011061 1694 1990 297 0.279 0.038 1.320 7.660 0.099 0.322 10 011062 1647 1785 139 0.335 0.039 0.609 3.467 0.084 0.489 11 011071 1723 1978 256 0.333 0.049 1.529 6.268 0.098 0.464 12 011072 1746 1990 245 0.325 0.068 0.032 3.298 0.132 0.559 13 011081 1853 1990 138 0.297 0.027 0.214 3.776 0.067 0.474 14 011082 1878 1990 113 0.293 0.031 0.854 9.219 0.074 0.406 15 011091 1899 1990 92 0.316 0.050 1.305 4.723 0.080 0.591 16 011092 1885 1990 106 0.314 0.048 0.264 3.646 0.078 0.580 17 011101 1897 1990 94 0.304 0.028 1.735 9.955 0.085 0.062 18 011102 1906 1990 85 0.309 0.038 3.336 20.707 0.096 0.033 19 011111 1877 1990 114 0.306 0.035 1.097 4.623 0.074 0.554 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 011112 1878 1990 113 0.289 0.037 0.098 5.972 0.075 0.641 21 011121 1812 1989 178 0.304 0.048 1.867 8.542 0.088 0.531 22 011122 1842 1989 148 0.278 0.029 0.269 3.847 0.081 0.473 23 011131 1707 1990 284 0.317 0.039 0.796 5.528 0.098 0.355 24 011132 1697 1990 294 0.317 0.048 0.959 4.656 0.094 0.502 25 011141 1792 1965 174 0.308 0.033 1.413 7.554 0.089 0.185 26 011142 1796 1965 170 0.322 0.031 1.368 5.999 0.086 0.088 27 011151 1723 1990 268 0.299 0.038 1.490 9.728 0.100 0.279 28 011152 1744 1990 247 0.303 0.043 3.251 18.976 0.099 0.251 29 011161 1809 1990 182 0.297 0.024 1.011 5.357 0.070 0.299 30 011162 1839 1990 152 0.289 0.021 0.210 3.594 0.068 0.234 31 011171 1767 1989 223 0.311 0.045 1.241 6.020 0.084 0.559 32 011172 1725 1954 230 0.329 0.040 1.498 9.440 0.091 0.207 33 011191 1704 1990 287 0.353 0.045 -0.119 3.002 0.079 0.633 34 011192 1714 1989 276 0.330 0.044 0.436 4.241 0.101 0.296 35 011201 1600 1990 391 0.284 0.047 1.087 5.122 0.126 0.354 36 011202 1615 1990 376 0.282 0.041 1.947 9.462 0.112 0.198 37 011211 1859 1990 132 0.278 0.023 0.038 3.665 0.068 0.334 38 011212 1845 1990 146 0.287 0.027 1.098 7.782 0.084 0.276 39 011221 1613 1990 378 0.325 0.047 1.293 6.595 0.111 0.305 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 011222 1569 1989 421 0.332 0.057 1.270 5.878 0.121 0.350 41 011231 1659 1989 331 0.284 0.047 1.565 8.903 0.118 0.311 42 011232 1657 1990 334 0.283 0.041 1.999 9.482 0.107 0.167 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 42 FROM 1569 TO 1990 422 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 0.304 0.038 1.052 6.592 0.089 0.382 STANDARD DEVIATION 74 0.023 0.010 0.790 3.694 0.017 0.174 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 161 0.305 0.038 1.098 5.925 0.086 0.352 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 109 0.038 0.014 0.978 4.224 0.024 0.299 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.244 0.021 -0.372 3.000 0.060 0.033 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 112 0.284 0.031 0.436 3.847 0.074 0.251 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 221 0.322 0.045 1.413 8.072 0.099 0.550 MAXIMUM VALUE 371 0.353 0.068 3.336 20.707 0.132 0.673 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 830 0.289 0.199 0.007 -0.281 2.773 -0.351 0.767 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.351 SERIES 011052 AND 011171 83 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.767 SERIES 011141 AND 011142 170 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.40 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 31.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. CORR 6. 6. 21. 28. 66. 105. 171. 190. 253. 325. RBAR 0.655 0.447 0.473 0.508 0.333 0.201 0.291 0.487 0.512 0.382 SDEV 0.122 0.120 0.206 0.178 0.249 0.219 0.236 0.233 0.206 0.203 SERR 0.050 0.049 0.045 0.034 0.031 0.021 0.018 0.017 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.904 0.839 0.886 0.928 0.892 0.828 0.895 0.955 0.964 0.948 NSS 4.9 6.5 8.7 12.5 16.5 19.1 20.7 22.5 25.4 29.5 YEAR 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 378. 496. 595. RBAR 0.379 0.253 0.150 SDEV 0.225 0.201 0.233 SERR 0.012 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.954 0.928 0.874 NSS 33.9 38.0 39.2 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1569 1990 422 0.319 0.038 1.941 8.623 0.071 0.576 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.128 -0.057 0.053 139 283 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.66 1.00 1.08 1.74 10.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.86 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 172. 163. 61. 113. 276. 421. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.575 0.504 0.474 0.461 0.443 0.445 0.393 0.348 0.305 0.284 PACF 0.575 0.259 0.176 0.143 0.102 0.110 0.009 -0.021 -0.041 -0.017 95% C.L. 0.097 0.125 0.143 0.158 0.170 0.180 0.191 0.198 0.204 0.208 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.477 0.248 0.115 0.110 0.129 0.112 0.154 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 011011 1 0.12877390 0.08806685 0.00000000 0.32058108 2 011012 1 0.24528614 0.00249732 0.00000000 0.13483845 3 011021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00129561 0.32393444 4 011022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00091113 0.31505433 5 011031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018462 0.32456028 6 011032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00047137 0.32370815 7 011051 1 0.07496143 0.03675408 0.00000000 0.22828607 8 011052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00096143 0.28800344 9 011061 1 0.06215771 0.01135460 0.00000000 0.26348865 10 011062 1 0.09247929 0.02088127 0.00000000 0.30578482 11 011071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023888 0.36446312 12 011072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050778 0.38986760 13 011081 1 0.04687320 0.02177500 0.00000000 0.28288490 14 011082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00060249 0.32645714 15 011091 1 0.14691745 0.03460781 0.00000000 0.27239943 16 011092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00110205 0.37254450 17 011101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001842 0.30263555 18 011102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014794 0.30281514 19 011111 1 0.11207447 0.01254222 0.00000000 0.24689354 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 011112 1 0.08174376 0.03718381 0.00000000 0.27052432 21 011121 1 0.14229962 0.03391302 0.00000000 0.28101054 22 011122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028329 0.29916197 23 011131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018498 0.34677470 24 011132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022455 0.36375946 25 011141 1 0.03843442 0.01841927 0.00000000 0.29780477 26 011142 1 0.00759879 0.00182032 0.00000000 0.31595311 27 011151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012156 0.31640276 28 011152 1 0.03138294 0.01117369 0.00000000 0.29212305 29 011161 1 0.03680989 0.04719236 0.00000000 0.29396951 30 011162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003618 0.28698108 31 011171 1 0.04877096 0.02349806 0.00000000 0.30285531 32 011172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003281 0.32595381 33 011191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039635 0.40670654 34 011192 1 0.10146860 0.00977108 0.00000000 0.28656501 35 011201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010356 0.31960806 36 011202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006979 0.29853562 37 011211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011286 0.28538400 38 011212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019728 0.30107510 39 011221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006562 0.33916476 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 40 011222 1 0.11639614 0.02176748 0.00000000 0.32065919 41 011231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018785 0.31776062 42 011232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011761 0.30285409 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 011011 1753 1964 212 1.000 0.108 1.246 5.063 0.094 0.226 2 011012 1752 1910 159 1.000 0.102 0.637 3.033 0.088 0.321 3 011021 1930 1990 61 1.000 0.062 0.280 3.040 0.069 -0.023 4 011022 1920 1990 71 1.000 0.102 4.738 32.698 0.071 -0.125 5 011031 1904 1990 87 1.000 0.096 1.204 6.138 0.071 0.124 6 011032 1914 1990 77 1.000 0.077 0.639 4.534 0.059 0.274 7 011051 1861 1990 130 1.000 0.103 0.624 4.890 0.088 0.295 8 011052 1907 1990 84 1.000 0.079 -0.273 4.720 0.067 0.275 9 011061 1694 1990 297 1.000 0.125 2.101 12.312 0.101 0.205 10 011062 1647 1785 139 1.000 0.090 0.616 3.494 0.087 0.144 11 011071 1723 1978 256 1.000 0.128 1.705 6.293 0.101 0.273 12 011072 1746 1990 245 1.000 0.166 1.062 5.573 0.135 0.270 13 011081 1853 1990 138 1.000 0.080 -0.046 3.725 0.068 0.336 14 011082 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.083 1.575 11.432 0.073 0.085 15 011091 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.107 3.577 22.737 0.079 0.029 16 011092 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.116 2.918 19.385 0.077 0.188 17 011101 1897 1990 94 1.000 0.093 1.716 9.819 0.084 0.060 18 011102 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.123 3.188 19.425 0.095 0.020 19 011111 1877 1990 114 1.000 0.080 0.550 4.530 0.074 0.194 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 011112 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.107 -1.004 6.358 0.074 0.500 21 011121 1812 1989 178 1.000 0.112 2.998 23.600 0.092 0.022 22 011122 1842 1989 148 1.000 0.094 0.766 4.778 0.082 0.305 23 011131 1707 1990 284 1.000 0.111 0.950 4.908 0.098 0.227 24 011132 1697 1990 294 1.000 0.141 1.114 5.140 0.094 0.455 25 011141 1792 1965 174 1.000 0.107 1.629 7.660 0.093 0.166 26 011142 1796 1965 170 1.000 0.096 1.313 5.759 0.087 0.106 27 011151 1723 1990 268 1.000 0.124 1.644 9.493 0.101 0.257 28 011152 1744 1990 247 1.000 0.139 3.050 17.889 0.102 0.210 29 011161 1809 1990 182 1.000 0.085 1.235 6.079 0.074 0.250 30 011162 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.074 0.296 3.732 0.070 0.178 31 011171 1767 1989 223 1.000 0.147 1.795 8.552 0.086 0.528 32 011172 1725 1954 230 1.000 0.124 1.509 9.009 0.094 0.195 33 011191 1704 1990 287 1.000 0.089 0.656 4.245 0.082 0.202 34 011192 1714 1989 276 1.000 0.131 1.482 6.543 0.110 0.179 35 011201 1600 1990 391 1.000 0.142 0.838 4.501 0.124 0.224 36 011202 1615 1990 376 1.000 0.137 1.702 7.928 0.113 0.190 37 011211 1859 1990 132 1.000 0.082 -0.016 3.347 0.068 0.315 38 011212 1845 1990 146 1.000 0.090 1.052 7.722 0.084 0.218 39 011221 1613 1990 378 1.000 0.145 1.489 6.863 0.111 0.329 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 011222 1569 1989 421 1.000 0.156 1.637 8.138 0.122 0.181 41 011231 1659 1989 331 1.000 0.158 2.103 10.375 0.124 0.199 42 011232 1657 1990 334 1.000 0.140 1.972 8.590 0.112 0.102 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 198 1.000 0.111 1.387 8.668 0.090 0.207 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.000 0.026 1.091 6.469 0.018 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 172 1.000 0.107 1.280 6.326 0.088 0.204 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 163 0.000 0.041 1.077 4.773 0.027 0.130 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.062 -1.004 3.033 0.059 -0.125 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.090 0.639 4.720 0.074 0.144 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 276 1.000 0.131 1.716 9.493 0.101 0.274 MAXIMUM VALUE 421 1.000 0.166 4.738 32.698 0.135 0.528 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 011011 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 011012 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 011021 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 011022 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 011031 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 011032 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 011051 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 011052 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 011061 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 011062 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 011071 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 011072 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 011081 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 011082 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 011091 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 011092 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 011101 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 011102 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 011111 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 011112 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 011121 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 011122 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 011131 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 011132 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 011141 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 011142 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 011151 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 011152 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 011161 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 011162 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 011171 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 011172 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 33 011191 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 34 011192 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 35 011201 -67 261 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 36 011202 -67 251 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 37 011211 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 38 011212 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 39 011221 -67 253 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 40 011222 -67 282 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 41 011231 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 42 011232 -67 223 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 011011 1753 1964 212 1.000 0.105 1.303 5.352 0.094 0.180 2 011012 1752 1910 159 1.000 0.097 0.586 3.039 0.088 0.270 3 011021 1930 1990 61 1.000 0.059 0.336 2.907 0.069 -0.140 4 011022 1920 1990 71 1.000 0.100 5.264 37.017 0.071 -0.171 5 011031 1904 1990 87 1.000 0.089 2.309 10.918 0.071 -0.048 6 011032 1914 1990 77 1.000 0.068 1.902 9.483 0.059 0.027 7 011051 1861 1990 130 1.000 0.100 0.704 5.703 0.088 0.243 8 011052 1907 1990 84 1.000 0.070 -0.410 6.063 0.068 0.109 9 011061 1694 1990 297 1.000 0.120 2.192 12.649 0.101 0.135 10 011062 1647 1785 139 1.000 0.085 0.767 4.168 0.087 0.023 11 011071 1723 1978 256 1.000 0.122 1.781 6.992 0.101 0.200 12 011072 1746 1990 245 0.998 0.141 1.381 5.850 0.135 0.012 13 011081 1853 1990 138 1.000 0.074 0.023 3.944 0.068 0.225 14 011082 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.079 1.982 12.803 0.073 -0.018 15 011091 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.101 3.616 23.525 0.079 -0.054 16 011092 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.110 3.739 26.450 0.077 0.071 17 011101 1897 1990 94 1.000 0.089 1.665 10.294 0.084 -0.008 18 011102 1906 1990 85 0.999 0.110 3.375 21.515 0.095 -0.152 19 011111 1877 1990 114 1.000 0.075 0.511 4.439 0.074 0.079 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 011112 1878 1990 113 0.999 0.098 -0.993 6.706 0.074 0.404 21 011121 1812 1989 178 1.000 0.107 3.221 24.360 0.092 -0.068 22 011122 1842 1989 148 1.000 0.086 1.133 6.305 0.082 0.169 23 011131 1707 1990 284 1.000 0.105 1.241 5.909 0.098 0.136 24 011132 1697 1990 294 0.999 0.120 2.174 13.274 0.094 0.222 25 011141 1792 1965 174 1.000 0.103 1.780 8.933 0.093 0.102 26 011142 1796 1965 170 1.000 0.090 1.503 7.257 0.088 0.005 27 011151 1723 1990 268 1.000 0.114 1.780 9.993 0.101 0.129 28 011152 1744 1990 247 1.000 0.138 3.080 18.179 0.102 0.205 29 011161 1809 1990 182 1.000 0.080 1.037 5.440 0.074 0.181 30 011162 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.073 0.418 4.368 0.070 0.131 31 011171 1767 1989 223 0.999 0.112 2.474 13.908 0.086 0.230 32 011172 1725 1954 230 1.000 0.114 2.001 12.416 0.094 0.045 33 011191 1704 1990 287 1.000 0.086 0.708 4.335 0.082 0.150 34 011192 1714 1989 276 1.000 0.124 1.561 6.654 0.110 0.081 35 011201 1600 1990 391 1.000 0.134 1.163 5.180 0.124 0.120 36 011202 1615 1990 376 0.999 0.129 2.026 9.966 0.113 0.083 37 011211 1859 1990 132 1.000 0.076 0.164 3.756 0.068 0.197 38 011212 1845 1990 146 1.000 0.086 1.309 9.588 0.084 0.129 39 011221 1613 1990 378 0.999 0.133 1.401 6.659 0.111 0.238 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 011222 1569 1989 421 1.000 0.151 1.738 8.312 0.122 0.138 41 011231 1659 1989 331 0.999 0.144 1.990 9.769 0.125 0.070 42 011232 1657 1990 334 1.000 0.133 2.210 10.321 0.112 0.022 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 198 1.000 0.103 1.622 10.112 0.090 0.098 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.000 0.023 1.180 7.226 0.018 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 172 1.000 0.102 1.613 7.785 0.088 0.115 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 163 0.000 0.034 1.407 6.976 0.027 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.998 0.059 -0.993 2.907 0.059 -0.171 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.086 0.767 5.440 0.074 0.022 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 276 1.000 0.120 2.174 12.416 0.101 0.181 MAXIMUM VALUE 421 1.000 0.151 5.264 37.017 0.135 0.404 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 830 0.253 0.163 0.006 -0.060 2.938 -0.273 0.780 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.273 SERIES 011032 AND 011172 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.780 SERIES 011141 AND 011142 170 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.40 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 31.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. CORR 6. 6. 21. 28. 66. 105. 171. 190. 253. 325. RBAR 0.655 0.410 0.492 0.507 0.348 0.205 0.304 0.498 0.506 0.382 SDEV 0.110 0.144 0.204 0.185 0.241 0.215 0.226 0.225 0.200 0.205 SERR 0.045 0.059 0.044 0.035 0.030 0.021 0.017 0.016 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.904 0.818 0.894 0.928 0.898 0.832 0.900 0.957 0.963 0.948 NSS 4.9 6.5 8.7 12.5 16.5 19.1 20.7 22.5 25.4 29.5 YEAR 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 378. 496. 595. RBAR 0.392 0.245 0.161 SDEV 0.222 0.179 0.185 SERR 0.011 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.956 0.925 0.883 NSS 33.9 38.0 39.2 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1569 1990 422 0.993 0.079 2.311 11.893 0.071 0.069 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.414 0.205 -0.134 181 241 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 1.02 1.00 1.11 2.13 53.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.85 0.99 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.069 -0.003 0.062 0.057 0.027 0.063 0.004 0.023 -0.068 -0.019 PACF 0.069 -0.008 0.064 0.049 0.021 0.057 -0.010 0.020 -0.082 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.008 -0.078 0.076 0.042 -0.013 0.082 -0.050 0.078 -0.050 0.007 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.008 2 -0.009 -0.078 3 -0.003 -0.078 0.075 4 -0.005 -0.075 0.075 0.037 5 -0.005 -0.075 0.075 0.037 -0.001 6 -0.005 -0.078 0.069 0.043 0.000 0.083 7 -0.001 -0.078 0.071 0.047 -0.005 0.083 -0.057 8 0.005 -0.085 0.072 0.043 -0.011 0.090 -0.057 0.092 9 0.011 -0.089 0.078 0.042 -0.008 0.095 -0.063 0.092 -0.072 10 0.013 -0.092 0.080 0.040 -0.008 0.094 -0.065 0.094 -0.072 0.023 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2895.66 2897.64 2897.05 2896.67 2898.09 2900.09 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2899.16 2899.78 2898.21 2898.00 2899.78 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 011011 0 0.033 2 011012 0 0.076 3 011021 0 0.020 4 011022 0 0.030 5 011031 0 0.002 6 011032 0 0.001 7 011051 0 0.059 8 011052 0 0.012 9 011061 0 0.018 10 011062 0 0.001 11 011071 0 0.041 12 011072 0 0.000 13 011081 0 0.051 14 011082 0 0.000 15 011091 0 0.003 16 011092 0 0.005 17 011101 0 0.000 18 011102 0 0.023 19 011111 0 0.006 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 011112 0 0.166 21 011121 0 0.005 22 011122 0 0.028 23 011131 0 0.019 24 011132 0 0.049 25 011141 0 0.010 26 011142 0 0.000 27 011151 0 0.017 28 011152 0 0.042 29 011161 0 0.033 30 011162 0 0.017 31 011171 0 0.053 32 011172 0 0.002 33 011191 0 0.023 34 011192 0 0.007 35 011201 0 0.015 36 011202 0 0.007 37 011211 0 0.039 38 011212 0 0.017 39 011221 0 0.057 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 40 011222 0 0.019 41 011231 0 0.005 42 011232 0 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.024 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.030 MEDIAN 0 0.017 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.029 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.005 UPPER HINGE 0 0.033 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.166 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 011011 1753 1964 212 1.000 0.105 1.303 5.352 0.094 0.180 2 011012 1752 1910 159 1.000 0.097 0.586 3.039 0.088 0.270 3 011021 1930 1990 61 1.000 0.059 0.336 2.907 0.069 -0.140 4 011022 1920 1990 71 1.000 0.100 5.264 37.017 0.071 -0.171 5 011031 1904 1990 87 1.000 0.089 2.309 10.918 0.071 -0.048 6 011032 1914 1990 77 1.000 0.068 1.902 9.483 0.059 0.027 7 011051 1861 1990 130 1.000 0.100 0.704 5.703 0.088 0.243 8 011052 1907 1990 84 1.000 0.070 -0.410 6.063 0.068 0.109 9 011061 1694 1990 297 1.000 0.120 2.192 12.649 0.101 0.135 10 011062 1647 1785 139 1.000 0.085 0.767 4.168 0.087 0.023 11 011071 1723 1978 256 1.000 0.122 1.781 6.992 0.101 0.200 12 011072 1746 1990 245 1.000 0.141 1.381 5.850 0.135 0.012 13 011081 1853 1990 138 1.000 0.074 0.023 3.944 0.068 0.225 14 011082 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.079 1.982 12.803 0.073 -0.018 15 011091 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.101 3.616 23.525 0.079 -0.054 16 011092 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.110 3.739 26.450 0.077 0.071 17 011101 1897 1990 94 1.000 0.089 1.665 10.294 0.084 -0.008 18 011102 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.110 3.375 21.515 0.095 -0.152 19 011111 1877 1990 114 1.000 0.075 0.511 4.439 0.074 0.079 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 011112 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.098 -0.993 6.706 0.074 0.404 21 011121 1812 1989 178 1.000 0.107 3.221 24.360 0.092 -0.068 22 011122 1842 1989 148 1.000 0.086 1.133 6.305 0.082 0.169 23 011131 1707 1990 284 1.000 0.105 1.241 5.909 0.098 0.136 24 011132 1697 1990 294 1.000 0.120 2.174 13.274 0.094 0.222 25 011141 1792 1965 174 1.000 0.103 1.780 8.933 0.093 0.102 26 011142 1796 1965 170 1.000 0.090 1.503 7.257 0.088 0.005 27 011151 1723 1990 268 1.000 0.114 1.780 9.993 0.101 0.129 28 011152 1744 1990 247 1.000 0.138 3.080 18.179 0.102 0.205 29 011161 1809 1990 182 1.000 0.080 1.037 5.440 0.074 0.181 30 011162 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.073 0.418 4.368 0.070 0.131 31 011171 1767 1989 223 1.000 0.112 2.474 13.908 0.086 0.230 32 011172 1725 1954 230 1.000 0.114 2.001 12.416 0.094 0.045 33 011191 1704 1990 287 1.000 0.086 0.708 4.335 0.082 0.150 34 011192 1714 1989 276 1.000 0.124 1.561 6.654 0.110 0.081 35 011201 1600 1990 391 1.000 0.134 1.163 5.180 0.124 0.120 36 011202 1615 1990 376 1.000 0.129 2.026 9.966 0.113 0.083 37 011211 1859 1990 132 1.000 0.076 0.164 3.756 0.068 0.197 38 011212 1845 1990 146 1.000 0.086 1.309 9.588 0.084 0.129 39 011221 1613 1990 378 1.000 0.133 1.401 6.659 0.111 0.238 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 011222 1569 1989 421 1.000 0.151 1.738 8.312 0.122 0.138 41 011231 1659 1989 331 1.000 0.144 1.990 9.769 0.124 0.070 42 011232 1657 1990 334 1.000 0.133 2.210 10.321 0.112 0.022 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 198 1.000 0.103 1.622 10.112 0.090 0.098 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.000 0.023 1.180 7.226 0.018 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 172 1.000 0.102 1.613 7.785 0.088 0.115 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 163 0.000 0.034 1.407 6.976 0.027 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.059 -0.993 2.907 0.059 -0.171 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.086 0.767 5.440 0.074 0.022 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 276 1.000 0.120 2.174 12.416 0.101 0.181 MAXIMUM VALUE 421 1.000 0.151 5.264 37.017 0.135 0.404 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 830 0.253 0.163 0.006 -0.060 2.938 -0.273 0.780 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.273 SERIES 011032 AND 011172 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.780 SERIES 011141 AND 011142 170 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.40 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 31.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. CORR 6. 6. 21. 28. 66. 105. 171. 190. 253. 325. RBAR 0.655 0.410 0.492 0.507 0.348 0.205 0.304 0.498 0.506 0.382 SDEV 0.110 0.144 0.204 0.185 0.241 0.215 0.226 0.225 0.200 0.205 SERR 0.045 0.059 0.044 0.035 0.030 0.021 0.017 0.016 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.904 0.818 0.894 0.928 0.898 0.832 0.900 0.957 0.963 0.948 NSS 4.9 6.5 8.7 12.5 16.5 19.1 20.7 22.5 25.4 29.5 YEAR 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 378. 496. 595. RBAR 0.392 0.245 0.161 SDEV 0.222 0.179 0.185 SERR 0.011 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.956 0.925 0.883 NSS 33.9 38.0 39.2 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1569 1990 422 0.994 0.079 2.311 11.896 0.071 0.069 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.414 0.205 -0.134 181 241 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 1.02 1.00 1.11 2.13 56.23 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.85 0.99 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.069 -0.003 0.063 0.057 0.027 0.063 0.004 0.023 -0.068 -0.019 PACF 0.069 -0.008 0.064 0.049 0.021 0.057 -0.010 0.020 -0.082 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1569 1990 422 0.994 0.079 2.311 11.896 0.071 0.069 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.069 -0.003 0.063 0.057 0.027 0.063 0.004 0.023 -0.068 -0.019 PACF 0.069 -0.008 0.064 0.049 0.021 0.057 -0.010 0.020 -0.082 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.56 MINUTES