RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS124L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS124L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 011 1 Balschaya Kamenka river WIDTH_LATE LAGM - 011 2 Russia Dahurian larch 60 7120-9350 1569 1990 - 011 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 011011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 71 IN 3 GAPS / 1834 1843 / 1859 1911 / 1916 1923 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 011061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 47 IN 1 GAPS / 1810 1856 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 011062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1680 1685 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 011071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 54 IN 2 GAPS / 1820 1844 / 1857 1885 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 011072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 60 IN 3 GAPS / 1820 1844 / 1846 1851 / 1857 1885 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 011131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 49 IN 1 GAPS / 1807 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 011132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 91 IN 1 GAPS / 1798 1888 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 011152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 1 GAPS / 1866 1880 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 33 011191 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 64 IN 2 GAPS / 1872 1923 / 1964 1975 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 34 011192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 72 IN 2 GAPS / 1863 1923 / 1964 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 35 011201 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 219 IN 1 GAPS / 1706 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 36 011202 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 123 IN 3 GAPS / 1710 1711 / 1741 1757 / 1800 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 39 011221 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 16 IN 1 GAPS / 1819 1834 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 40 011222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 43 IN 2 GAPS / 1819 1855 / 1946 1951 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 41 011231 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 39 IN 3 GAPS / 1827 1832 / 1836 1847 / 1865 1885 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 42 011232 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 1 GAPS / 1866 1885 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 011011 1753 1964 212 0.113 0.135 2.546 9.149 0.481 0.725 2 011012 1752 1910 159 0.221 0.246 2.211 8.502 0.531 0.589 3 011021 1930 1990 61 0.221 0.102 1.682 9.321 0.471 0.031 4 011022 1920 1990 71 0.218 0.103 0.399 2.604 0.389 0.513 5 011031 1904 1990 87 0.191 0.098 0.537 2.960 0.476 0.397 6 011032 1914 1990 77 0.242 0.137 1.723 6.523 0.431 0.411 7 011051 1861 1990 130 0.141 0.086 2.101 10.378 0.453 0.326 8 011052 1907 1990 84 0.143 0.100 2.934 12.613 0.312 0.648 9 011061 1694 1990 297 0.087 0.107 6.610 55.630 0.399 0.472 10 011062 1647 1785 139 0.104 0.054 2.847 19.475 0.309 0.281 11 011071 1723 1978 256 0.103 0.080 2.675 11.567 0.495 0.674 12 011072 1746 1990 245 0.103 0.065 2.710 16.278 0.491 0.458 13 011081 1853 1990 138 0.137 0.077 1.202 4.926 0.444 0.424 14 011082 1878 1990 113 0.174 0.084 1.209 5.190 0.423 0.383 15 011091 1899 1990 92 0.242 0.156 1.540 5.044 0.423 0.378 16 011092 1885 1990 106 0.210 0.116 1.178 5.095 0.456 0.302 17 011101 1897 1990 94 0.267 0.166 1.399 4.699 0.500 0.376 18 011102 1906 1990 85 0.238 0.182 3.524 18.798 0.526 0.510 19 011111 1877 1990 114 0.136 0.067 0.747 2.822 0.393 0.484 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 011112 1878 1990 113 0.212 0.135 0.969 3.500 0.497 0.374 21 011121 1812 1989 178 0.123 0.079 1.328 4.423 0.460 0.450 22 011122 1842 1989 148 0.121 0.061 1.274 5.403 0.396 0.484 23 011131 1707 1990 284 0.069 0.032 2.070 14.476 0.326 0.428 24 011132 1697 1990 294 0.082 0.045 3.276 20.093 0.336 0.485 25 011141 1792 1965 174 0.112 0.066 0.841 2.988 0.500 0.456 26 011142 1796 1965 170 0.110 0.060 0.712 2.748 0.501 0.383 27 011151 1723 1990 268 0.121 0.106 3.066 17.236 0.459 0.596 28 011152 1744 1990 247 0.090 0.070 2.864 13.982 0.460 0.470 29 011161 1809 1990 182 0.088 0.044 1.894 9.929 0.450 0.246 30 011162 1839 1990 152 0.120 0.079 1.640 5.391 0.457 0.545 31 011171 1767 1989 223 0.110 0.104 2.751 11.263 0.480 0.449 32 011172 1725 1954 230 0.134 0.097 1.569 6.072 0.574 0.436 33 011191 1704 1990 287 0.078 0.054 1.665 6.409 0.468 0.459 34 011192 1714 1989 276 0.069 0.048 1.854 8.479 0.450 0.555 35 011201 1600 1990 391 0.062 0.052 3.259 17.673 0.451 0.431 36 011202 1615 1990 376 0.056 0.033 1.581 6.385 0.416 0.480 37 011211 1859 1990 132 0.104 0.067 2.456 10.347 0.469 0.051 38 011212 1845 1990 146 0.124 0.063 1.355 5.146 0.408 0.229 39 011221 1613 1990 378 0.096 0.084 2.733 13.258 0.503 0.526 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 011222 1569 1989 421 0.089 0.084 3.368 16.988 0.506 0.571 41 011231 1659 1989 331 0.087 0.068 1.869 7.460 0.444 0.622 42 011232 1657 1990 334 0.075 0.046 1.618 7.500 0.443 0.493 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 42 FROM 1569 TO 1990 422 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 174 0.134 0.089 2.042 10.208 0.449 0.443 STANDARD DEVIATION 77 0.058 0.043 1.103 8.836 0.058 0.141 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 0.116 0.079 1.789 7.989 0.456 0.457 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 110 0.086 0.043 1.404 8.162 0.068 0.131 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.056 0.032 0.399 2.604 0.309 0.031 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 0.089 0.061 1.328 5.095 0.423 0.383 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 223 0.174 0.104 2.733 13.258 0.491 0.513 MAXIMUM VALUE 378 0.267 0.246 6.610 55.630 0.574 0.725 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 830 0.345 0.179 0.006 -0.256 2.835 -0.215 0.859 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.215 SERIES 011052 AND 011071 72 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.859 SERIES 011141 AND 011142 170 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.40 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 31.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. CORR 6. 6. 21. 28. 66. 105. 171. 190. 253. 325. RBAR 0.557 0.675 0.633 0.541 0.415 0.406 0.464 0.643 0.569 0.549 SDEV 0.175 0.069 0.128 0.200 0.215 0.196 0.172 0.171 0.194 0.192 SERR 0.072 0.028 0.028 0.038 0.027 0.019 0.013 0.012 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.861 0.931 0.937 0.936 0.921 0.929 0.947 0.976 0.971 0.973 NSS 4.9 6.5 8.7 12.5 16.5 19.1 20.7 22.5 25.4 29.5 YEAR 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 378. 496. 595. RBAR 0.557 0.496 0.311 SDEV 0.178 0.157 0.184 SERR 0.009 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.977 0.974 0.947 NSS 33.9 38.0 39.2 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1569 1990 422 0.085 0.039 0.755 3.497 0.396 0.410 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.803 0.629 -0.010 228 194 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.10 3.04 1.00 1.32 4.36 52.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.18 0.00 0.82 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 172. 163. 61. 113. 276. 421. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.409 0.407 0.335 0.260 0.273 0.183 0.189 0.180 0.173 0.152 PACF 0.409 0.287 0.130 0.027 0.087 -0.023 0.028 0.044 0.042 0.005 95% C.L. 0.097 0.112 0.126 0.134 0.139 0.144 0.146 0.148 0.150 0.152 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.250 0.254 0.250 0.131 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 011011 1 0.45269662 0.03927772 0.00000000 0.03479534 2 011012 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 011021 1 0.07644727 0.09099708 0.00000000 0.20755200 4 011022 1 0.24245116 0.05251740 0.00000000 0.15650241 5 011031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020030 0.18245122 6 011032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038015 0.22712235 7 011051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013055 0.14947405 8 011052 1 0.28402722 0.06685270 0.00000000 0.09436779 9 011061 1 0.16222741 0.00755820 0.00000000 0.01671383 10 011062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00032802 0.07812934 11 011071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028772 0.05571131 12 011072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013524 0.07707009 13 011081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00053264 0.10044536 14 011082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00075920 0.13079646 15 011091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00057288 0.26881272 16 011092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00092596 0.16017790 17 011101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003193 0.26529169 18 011102 1 0.35469124 0.02646503 0.00000000 0.09893253 19 011111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00061951 0.17158671 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 011112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00101811 0.26980245 21 011121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00026041 0.14662160 22 011122 1 0.14806584 0.08653828 0.00000000 0.11041894 23 011131 1 0.01366903 0.01224122 0.00000000 0.06308916 24 011132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005078 0.09497443 25 011141 1 0.20502897 0.14319992 0.00000000 0.10447305 26 011142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003067 0.10708389 27 011151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031861 0.07856448 28 011152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020867 0.06190057 29 011161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004287 0.09144982 30 011162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00084618 0.18440397 31 011171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00084383 0.20423949 32 011172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006163 0.12679438 33 011191 1 0.06853824 0.01467457 0.00000000 0.05779510 34 011192 1 0.07707783 0.01372462 0.00000000 0.04181430 35 011201 1 0.06588946 0.01009083 0.00000000 0.03010875 36 011202 1 0.03246579 0.00778517 0.00000000 0.04187960 37 011211 1 0.10744027 0.08957437 0.00000000 0.09578399 38 011212 1 0.18100065 0.13182442 0.00000000 0.11517452 39 011221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018885 0.12847847 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 40 011222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007181 0.10153889 41 011231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035221 0.13818300 42 011232 1 0.05337589 0.01708710 0.00000000 0.06277618 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 011011 1753 1964 212 1.031 0.544 0.840 3.278 0.453 0.421 2 011012 1752 1910 159 0.994 0.532 0.958 4.493 0.528 0.195 3 011021 1930 1990 61 1.000 0.472 2.122 11.619 0.463 0.023 4 011022 1920 1990 71 1.000 0.442 1.037 4.694 0.383 0.267 5 011031 1904 1990 87 1.000 0.519 0.633 3.180 0.471 0.387 6 011032 1914 1990 77 1.000 0.557 1.621 6.061 0.425 0.393 7 011051 1861 1990 130 1.000 0.602 1.935 9.171 0.450 0.329 8 011052 1907 1990 84 1.000 0.423 1.223 4.737 0.311 0.431 9 011061 1694 1990 297 1.009 0.760 5.197 42.969 0.417 0.388 10 011062 1647 1785 139 1.000 0.601 4.891 38.227 0.301 0.217 11 011071 1723 1978 256 1.019 0.721 1.793 7.018 0.477 0.633 12 011072 1746 1990 245 1.003 0.677 3.690 28.804 0.481 0.505 13 011081 1853 1990 138 0.995 0.553 1.400 5.296 0.442 0.365 14 011082 1878 1990 113 0.999 0.455 1.060 4.642 0.419 0.311 15 011091 1899 1990 92 0.999 0.639 1.553 5.189 0.419 0.370 16 011092 1885 1990 106 0.997 0.527 1.078 4.612 0.451 0.264 17 011101 1897 1990 94 1.000 0.621 1.400 4.703 0.494 0.372 18 011102 1906 1990 85 0.998 0.549 1.521 6.181 0.520 0.221 19 011111 1877 1990 114 0.996 0.476 0.986 3.490 0.389 0.412 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 011112 1878 1990 113 0.994 0.606 1.095 4.298 0.493 0.370 21 011121 1812 1989 178 0.997 0.602 1.217 4.332 0.458 0.423 22 011122 1842 1989 148 1.000 0.462 1.119 4.988 0.393 0.393 23 011131 1707 1990 284 1.000 0.443 2.006 14.585 0.322 0.428 24 011132 1697 1990 294 1.000 0.471 2.457 15.662 0.324 0.471 25 011141 1792 1965 174 1.000 0.563 0.890 3.220 0.497 0.381 26 011142 1796 1965 170 1.000 0.552 0.712 2.717 0.499 0.379 27 011151 1723 1990 268 1.002 0.808 2.656 14.127 0.458 0.540 28 011152 1744 1990 247 1.006 0.732 2.143 9.010 0.457 0.450 29 011161 1809 1990 182 1.000 0.492 1.797 9.482 0.447 0.238 30 011162 1839 1990 152 0.998 0.514 1.103 3.919 0.455 0.290 31 011171 1767 1989 223 1.068 0.747 2.083 8.204 0.480 0.366 32 011172 1725 1954 230 1.000 0.718 1.502 5.733 0.572 0.434 33 011191 1704 1990 287 0.999 0.593 1.180 4.438 0.469 0.403 34 011192 1714 1989 276 1.000 0.613 1.599 6.644 0.439 0.508 35 011201 1600 1990 391 1.001 0.582 2.402 15.083 0.446 0.363 36 011202 1615 1990 376 1.000 0.565 1.950 8.577 0.402 0.521 37 011211 1859 1990 132 1.000 0.638 3.054 14.907 0.465 -0.007 38 011212 1845 1990 146 1.000 0.488 1.740 7.614 0.406 0.096 39 011221 1613 1990 378 0.998 0.843 2.620 12.857 0.511 0.518 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 011222 1569 1989 421 0.998 0.910 3.420 17.952 0.510 0.561 41 011231 1659 1989 331 1.040 0.739 1.741 7.407 0.443 0.609 42 011232 1657 1990 334 0.999 0.639 2.038 10.723 0.440 0.525 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 198 1.003 0.595 1.844 9.639 0.445 0.375 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.013 0.116 1.011 8.727 0.058 0.140 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 172 1.000 0.573 1.610 6.412 0.452 0.387 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 163 0.001 0.126 1.019 7.008 0.061 0.139 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.994 0.423 0.633 2.717 0.301 -0.007 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 0.999 0.514 1.103 4.612 0.419 0.311 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 276 1.000 0.639 2.122 11.619 0.480 0.450 MAXIMUM VALUE 421 1.068 0.910 5.197 42.969 0.572 0.633 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 011011 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 011012 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 011021 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 011022 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 011031 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 011032 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 011051 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 011052 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 011061 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 011062 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 011071 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 011072 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 011081 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 011082 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 011091 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 011092 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 011101 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 011102 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 011111 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 011112 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 011121 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 011122 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 011131 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 011132 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 011141 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 011142 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 011151 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 011152 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 011161 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 011162 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 011171 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 011172 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 33 011191 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 34 011192 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 35 011201 -67 261 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 36 011202 -67 251 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 37 011211 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 38 011212 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 39 011221 -67 253 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 40 011222 -67 282 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 41 011231 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 42 011232 -67 223 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 011011 1753 1964 212 0.993 0.497 1.153 4.599 0.453 0.282 2 011012 1752 1910 159 0.993 0.520 0.978 4.509 0.528 0.158 3 011021 1930 1990 61 0.991 0.414 1.438 8.422 0.461 -0.137 4 011022 1920 1990 71 0.993 0.418 0.973 4.820 0.383 0.218 5 011031 1904 1990 87 0.986 0.486 1.374 7.222 0.470 0.247 6 011032 1914 1990 77 0.986 0.480 1.717 7.951 0.426 0.303 7 011051 1861 1990 130 0.990 0.572 2.344 13.101 0.451 0.258 8 011052 1907 1990 84 0.994 0.396 1.129 4.193 0.311 0.369 9 011061 1694 1990 297 0.988 0.688 5.086 42.069 0.417 0.339 10 011062 1647 1785 139 0.985 0.489 3.216 19.605 0.300 0.248 11 011071 1723 1978 256 0.989 0.539 1.509 7.135 0.478 0.477 12 011072 1746 1990 245 0.994 0.519 1.259 6.420 0.481 0.340 13 011081 1853 1990 138 0.996 0.462 0.987 4.587 0.443 0.185 14 011082 1878 1990 113 0.996 0.430 0.769 3.583 0.419 0.256 15 011091 1899 1990 92 0.983 0.583 1.884 6.756 0.419 0.306 16 011092 1885 1990 106 0.993 0.474 1.053 4.495 0.451 0.121 17 011101 1897 1990 94 0.985 0.489 0.834 2.904 0.497 0.147 18 011102 1906 1990 85 0.992 0.531 1.694 6.981 0.521 0.171 19 011111 1877 1990 114 0.995 0.415 1.006 3.776 0.390 0.201 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 011112 1878 1990 113 0.992 0.514 0.940 4.179 0.495 0.137 21 011121 1812 1989 178 0.987 0.454 0.632 3.436 0.458 0.218 22 011122 1842 1989 148 0.998 0.429 0.756 4.321 0.393 0.351 23 011131 1707 1990 284 0.994 0.403 1.746 12.746 0.323 0.339 24 011132 1697 1990 294 0.994 0.396 1.767 11.001 0.325 0.342 25 011141 1792 1965 174 0.992 0.535 0.854 3.250 0.498 0.341 26 011142 1796 1965 170 0.994 0.532 0.648 2.577 0.499 0.337 27 011151 1723 1990 268 0.975 0.761 2.838 13.966 0.458 0.516 28 011152 1744 1990 247 0.974 0.592 1.982 8.441 0.457 0.342 29 011161 1809 1990 182 0.995 0.462 1.448 7.099 0.447 0.136 30 011162 1839 1990 152 0.994 0.494 1.023 3.738 0.454 0.252 31 011171 1767 1989 223 0.986 0.555 1.609 6.381 0.479 0.161 32 011172 1725 1954 230 0.991 0.700 1.514 5.796 0.572 0.418 33 011191 1704 1990 287 0.991 0.542 1.133 4.678 0.470 0.312 34 011192 1714 1989 276 0.987 0.543 1.515 6.854 0.439 0.409 35 011201 1600 1990 391 0.997 0.552 2.367 15.378 0.447 0.313 36 011202 1615 1990 376 0.990 0.472 1.175 5.620 0.402 0.366 37 011211 1859 1990 132 0.998 0.636 3.511 19.047 0.466 -0.043 38 011212 1845 1990 146 0.999 0.473 1.711 7.505 0.406 0.051 39 011221 1613 1990 378 0.970 0.730 2.570 13.453 0.511 0.448 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 011222 1569 1989 421 0.977 0.663 2.272 10.621 0.510 0.420 41 011231 1659 1989 331 0.969 0.618 2.553 14.373 0.442 0.508 42 011232 1657 1990 334 0.978 0.506 1.406 6.438 0.440 0.324 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 198 0.989 0.523 1.628 8.429 0.445 0.274 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.007 0.091 0.880 6.852 0.058 0.136 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 172 0.992 0.510 1.443 6.597 0.452 0.304 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 163 0.008 0.093 0.878 6.126 0.060 0.157 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.969 0.396 0.632 2.577 0.300 -0.137 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 0.986 0.462 1.006 4.495 0.419 0.185 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 276 0.994 0.555 1.884 10.621 0.479 0.342 MAXIMUM VALUE 421 0.999 0.761 5.086 42.069 0.572 0.516 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 830 0.414 0.128 0.004 -0.068 2.965 0.048 0.853 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.048 SERIES 011021 AND 011151 61 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.853 SERIES 011141 AND 011142 170 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.40 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 31.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. CORR 6. 6. 21. 28. 66. 105. 171. 190. 253. 325. RBAR 0.632 0.681 0.668 0.561 0.441 0.416 0.471 0.596 0.609 0.561 SDEV 0.111 0.060 0.108 0.207 0.212 0.189 0.169 0.175 0.172 0.174 SERR 0.045 0.025 0.024 0.039 0.026 0.018 0.013 0.013 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.895 0.932 0.946 0.941 0.929 0.932 0.949 0.971 0.975 0.974 NSS 4.9 6.5 8.7 12.5 16.5 19.1 20.7 22.5 25.4 29.5 YEAR 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 378. 496. 595. RBAR 0.581 0.510 0.323 SDEV 0.161 0.146 0.163 SERR 0.008 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.979 0.975 0.949 NSS 33.9 38.0 39.2 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1569 1990 422 0.948 0.382 0.938 5.551 0.384 0.257 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.615 0.289 0.022 173 249 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.45 1.32 1.00 1.15 2.48 32.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.86 0.99 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.256 0.234 0.164 0.086 0.118 -0.001 -0.012 -0.020 -0.015 -0.051 PACF 0.256 0.180 0.076 -0.004 0.064 -0.069 -0.041 -0.016 0.008 -0.045 95% C.L. 0.097 0.104 0.108 0.111 0.111 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.102 0.197 0.165 0.076 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.268 0.235 0.136 0.097 0.103 -0.030 -0.036 -0.045 -0.030 -0.024 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.268 2 0.221 0.175 3 0.213 0.166 0.042 4 0.213 0.163 0.038 0.020 5 0.212 0.161 0.029 0.009 0.051 6 0.217 0.162 0.032 0.024 0.072 -0.097 7 0.212 0.165 0.033 0.026 0.080 -0.086 -0.049 8 0.211 0.164 0.035 0.026 0.080 -0.083 -0.046 -0.018 9 0.211 0.164 0.035 0.026 0.080 -0.083 -0.046 -0.019 0.004 10 0.211 0.164 0.035 0.026 0.080 -0.083 -0.046 -0.019 0.003 0.001 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4332.45 4303.05 4291.85 4293.12 4294.95 4295.85 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 4293.87 4294.84 4296.70 4298.69 4300.69 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.221 0.175 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 10.03 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 111.15 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.221 0.224 0.088 0.059 0.028 0.017 0.009 0.005 0.003 0.0014 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 011011 2 0.137 0.213 0.247 2 011012 2 0.032 0.150 0.047 3 011021 2 0.074 -0.115 0.165 4 011022 2 0.138 0.156 0.294 5 011031 2 0.101 0.244 0.077 6 011032 2 0.167 0.227 0.257 7 011051 2 0.075 0.235 0.091 8 011052 2 0.168 0.317 0.149 9 011061 2 0.116 0.338 0.005 10 011062 2 0.118 0.242 0.178 11 011071 2 0.277 0.364 0.242 12 011072 2 0.175 0.254 0.256 13 011081 2 0.036 0.183 0.011 14 011082 2 0.139 0.188 0.273 15 011091 2 0.123 0.252 0.176 16 011092 2 0.045 0.103 0.152 17 011101 2 0.040 0.141 0.055 18 011102 2 0.047 0.177 -0.031 19 011111 2 0.049 0.185 0.087 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 011112 2 0.042 0.121 0.138 21 011121 2 0.049 0.221 -0.011 22 011122 2 0.129 0.326 0.073 23 011131 2 0.148 0.276 0.187 24 011132 2 0.177 0.253 0.260 25 011141 2 0.135 0.304 0.109 26 011142 2 0.123 0.321 0.054 27 011151 2 0.293 0.423 0.181 28 011152 2 0.127 0.311 0.095 29 011161 2 0.038 0.122 0.130 30 011162 2 0.117 0.193 0.237 31 011171 2 0.030 0.156 0.039 32 011172 2 0.201 0.368 0.121 33 011191 2 0.123 0.262 0.161 34 011192 2 0.201 0.341 0.168 35 011201 2 0.133 0.259 0.175 36 011202 2 0.186 0.315 0.139 37 011211 2 0.034 -0.035 0.174 38 011212 2 0.008 0.049 0.040 39 011221 2 0.246 0.347 0.228 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 40 011222 2 0.204 0.385 0.084 41 011231 2 0.288 0.430 0.156 42 011232 2 0.140 0.272 0.163 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.125 0.235 0.139 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.074 0.113 0.083 MEDIAN 2 0.125 0.248 0.150 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.120 0.141 0.104 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.008 -0.115 -0.031 LOWER HINGE 2 0.049 0.177 0.077 UPPER HINGE 2 0.168 0.317 0.181 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.293 0.430 0.294 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 011011 1753 1964 212 1.000 0.461 1.163 5.249 0.485 -0.010 2 011012 1752 1910 159 1.000 0.513 1.145 4.993 0.548 -0.004 3 011021 1930 1990 61 1.000 0.404 1.537 8.929 0.416 -0.022 4 011022 1920 1990 71 1.000 0.389 0.484 4.044 0.432 -0.013 5 011031 1904 1990 87 1.000 0.465 1.348 7.229 0.507 -0.005 6 011032 1914 1990 77 1.000 0.441 1.746 7.340 0.432 0.037 7 011051 1861 1990 130 1.000 0.550 2.863 17.519 0.495 0.001 8 011052 1907 1990 84 1.000 0.363 1.086 4.905 0.367 0.012 9 011061 1694 1990 297 1.000 0.647 6.052 56.838 0.479 -0.001 10 011062 1647 1785 139 1.000 0.453 3.016 18.341 0.338 -0.037 11 011071 1723 1978 256 1.000 0.458 0.630 4.081 0.555 -0.009 12 011072 1746 1990 245 1.001 0.465 0.960 6.230 0.530 0.004 13 011081 1853 1990 138 1.000 0.454 1.125 5.328 0.460 0.000 14 011082 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.399 0.622 3.627 0.438 0.014 15 011091 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.546 1.651 5.895 0.497 0.008 16 011092 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.465 1.218 5.011 0.470 -0.013 17 011101 1897 1990 94 1.000 0.483 0.822 3.061 0.526 0.005 18 011102 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.523 1.458 5.980 0.568 -0.004 19 011111 1877 1990 114 1.000 0.405 0.997 3.934 0.414 0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 011112 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.503 1.037 4.645 0.520 -0.011 21 011121 1812 1989 178 1.000 0.443 0.719 3.752 0.496 0.000 22 011122 1842 1989 148 1.000 0.400 0.711 3.616 0.426 -0.002 23 011131 1707 1990 284 1.000 0.370 1.949 16.247 0.372 -0.006 24 011132 1697 1990 294 1.000 0.359 1.670 11.853 0.370 0.002 25 011141 1792 1965 174 1.000 0.500 0.682 3.151 0.573 -0.010 26 011142 1796 1965 170 1.000 0.499 0.586 2.794 0.583 -0.006 27 011151 1723 1990 268 1.003 0.636 3.294 20.532 0.532 0.013 28 011152 1744 1990 247 1.000 0.554 1.873 8.143 0.518 0.003 29 011161 1809 1990 182 1.000 0.453 1.482 7.693 0.472 0.000 30 011162 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.464 1.143 4.337 0.479 0.003 31 011171 1767 1989 223 1.000 0.546 1.399 5.943 0.537 0.003 32 011172 1725 1954 230 1.005 0.619 1.351 5.676 0.647 -0.003 33 011191 1704 1990 287 1.001 0.506 1.038 4.419 0.530 -0.004 34 011192 1714 1989 276 1.001 0.487 1.745 9.013 0.495 -0.017 35 011201 1600 1990 391 1.004 0.507 2.192 15.479 0.498 0.016 36 011202 1615 1990 376 1.002 0.430 1.065 6.224 0.474 -0.018 37 011211 1859 1990 132 1.000 0.625 3.679 20.522 0.448 0.007 38 011212 1845 1990 146 1.000 0.472 1.779 7.881 0.416 0.002 39 011221 1613 1990 378 1.004 0.628 2.354 12.563 0.568 0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 011222 1569 1989 421 1.003 0.594 1.864 8.792 0.594 0.002 41 011231 1659 1989 331 1.006 0.506 1.913 12.266 0.516 0.034 42 011232 1657 1990 334 1.001 0.471 1.139 5.819 0.501 -0.013 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 198 1.001 0.487 1.585 9.045 0.489 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.002 0.075 1.018 8.999 0.067 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 172 1.000 0.471 1.349 5.962 0.496 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 163 0.001 0.080 0.827 4.595 0.093 0.013 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.359 0.484 2.794 0.338 -0.037 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.443 1.037 4.419 0.438 -0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 276 1.001 0.523 1.864 9.013 0.530 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 421 1.006 0.647 6.052 56.838 0.647 0.037 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 830 0.421 0.131 0.005 -0.210 2.995 0.021 0.824 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.021 SERIES 011032 AND 011171 76 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.824 SERIES 011141 AND 011142 170 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.40 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 31.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. CORR 6. 6. 21. 28. 66. 105. 171. 190. 253. 325. RBAR 0.666 0.591 0.642 0.565 0.430 0.451 0.531 0.611 0.571 0.561 SDEV 0.092 0.067 0.106 0.217 0.185 0.189 0.137 0.149 0.178 0.168 SERR 0.037 0.027 0.023 0.041 0.023 0.018 0.010 0.011 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.908 0.903 0.940 0.942 0.926 0.940 0.959 0.973 0.971 0.974 NSS 4.9 6.5 8.7 12.5 16.5 19.1 20.7 22.5 25.4 29.5 YEAR 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 378. 496. 595. RBAR 0.603 0.523 0.343 SDEV 0.150 0.129 0.153 SERR 0.008 0.006 0.006 EPS 0.981 0.977 0.953 NSS 33.9 38.0 39.2 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1569 1990 422 0.972 0.363 0.749 5.302 0.431 -0.094 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.545 0.235 0.035 183 239 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 1.05 1.00 1.12 2.17 30.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.15 0.00 0.85 0.99 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.093 -0.019 0.063 -0.027 0.102 -0.037 -0.042 -0.006 0.023 -0.028 PACF -0.093 -0.028 0.059 -0.016 0.102 -0.023 -0.042 -0.028 0.026 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.010 -0.094 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.005 0.060 -0.012 0.098 -0.033 -0.043 -0.009 0.018 -0.030 PACF 0.002 0.005 0.060 -0.013 0.098 -0.037 -0.042 -0.021 0.026 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.004 0.002 0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1569 1990 422 0.972 0.384 0.927 5.706 0.367 0.289 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.289 0.258 0.173 0.081 0.119 0.000 -0.020 -0.019 -0.007 -0.044 PACF 0.289 0.190 0.065 -0.024 0.067 -0.069 -0.049 -0.007 0.023 -0.045 95% C.L. 0.097 0.105 0.111 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.121 0.234 0.191 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 3.13 MINUTES