RUN: russredo FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS100X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS100X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 967 1 Polui River Head DENSITY_MAXIMUM PISY - 967 2 Russia Scots pine, Scotch pine 35 6518-6941 1674 1991 - 967 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 9 967071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1889 1895 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 967182 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1864 1864 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 967191 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1756 1761 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 967192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1927 1927 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 967201 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1892 1893 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 967202 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1892 1893 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 967221 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1893 1894 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 967222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1893 1894 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 967011 1674 1990 317 0.566 0.111 0.122 2.420 0.120 0.708 2 967012 1685 1991 307 0.555 0.092 0.245 2.887 0.112 0.624 3 967021 1905 1991 87 0.720 0.080 -0.777 3.208 0.089 0.465 4 967022 1897 1991 95 0.702 0.080 -0.686 3.825 0.090 0.504 5 967041 1809 1991 183 0.622 0.095 -0.364 2.892 0.124 0.472 6 967042 1806 1991 186 0.640 0.074 -0.327 2.619 0.100 0.433 7 967051 1686 1990 305 0.612 0.103 0.058 2.550 0.122 0.582 8 967052 1687 1991 305 0.620 0.092 -0.536 3.306 0.102 0.622 9 967071 1705 1968 264 0.589 0.087 -0.020 3.261 0.123 0.437 10 967072 1708 1991 284 0.618 0.082 -0.623 3.282 0.105 0.498 11 967081 1857 1984 128 0.601 0.112 -0.500 2.473 0.130 0.638 12 967082 1846 1990 145 0.647 0.110 -0.100 2.306 0.121 0.593 13 967111 1914 1991 78 0.665 0.080 -0.360 2.601 0.090 0.574 14 967112 1903 1991 89 0.643 0.082 -0.271 2.778 0.100 0.542 15 967131 1851 1991 141 0.639 0.085 -0.236 2.422 0.110 0.449 16 967132 1856 1990 135 0.699 0.071 -1.064 4.032 0.079 0.504 17 967151 1897 1991 95 0.766 0.098 -0.799 3.015 0.086 0.648 18 967152 1905 1991 87 0.818 0.077 -0.629 3.351 0.080 0.410 19 967181 1835 1991 157 0.674 0.111 -0.035 2.142 0.120 0.605 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 967182 1854 1991 138 0.713 0.087 -0.099 2.132 0.099 0.497 21 967191 1696 1991 296 0.636 0.093 -0.318 2.588 0.110 0.542 22 967192 1757 1991 235 0.646 0.087 -0.414 3.245 0.104 0.535 23 967201 1830 1991 162 0.698 0.107 -0.751 2.845 0.105 0.637 24 967202 1801 1991 191 0.679 0.108 -0.493 2.902 0.134 0.448 25 967221 1832 1991 160 0.631 0.074 -0.185 2.707 0.108 0.343 26 967222 1794 1991 198 0.615 0.096 0.077 2.592 0.135 0.408 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1674 TO 1991 318 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 183 0.654 0.091 -0.349 2.861 0.108 0.528 STANDARD DEVIATION 79 0.059 0.013 0.329 0.476 0.016 0.091 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 159 0.641 0.089 -0.344 2.812 0.107 0.520 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 129 0.080 0.022 0.524 0.694 0.021 0.156 MINIMUM VALUE 78 0.555 0.071 -1.064 2.132 0.079 0.343 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 0.618 0.080 -0.623 2.550 0.099 0.449 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 257 0.698 0.103 -0.099 3.245 0.121 0.605 MAXIMUM VALUE 317 0.818 0.112 0.245 4.032 0.135 0.708 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.537 0.145 0.008 -0.385 2.967 0.091 0.887 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.091 SERIES 967011 AND 967112 88 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.887 SERIES 967111 AND 967112 78 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 42.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 15. 21. 21. 28. 45. 78. 153. 190. 300. 300. RBAR 0.724 0.534 0.509 0.535 0.454 0.529 0.639 0.565 0.442 0.680 SDEV 0.081 0.189 0.162 0.161 0.297 0.216 0.195 0.164 0.199 0.133 SERR 0.021 0.041 0.035 0.030 0.044 0.024 0.016 0.012 0.012 0.008 EPS 0.948 0.895 0.895 0.921 0.918 0.952 0.973 0.968 0.953 0.982 NSS 6.9 7.5 8.3 10.2 13.5 17.6 20.3 23.2 25.8 25.8 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1674 1991 318 0.638 0.070 -0.439 3.163 0.093 0.399 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.062 0.028 0.056 51 267 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.48 1.01 1.07 1.55 16.41 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 161. 136. 78. 128. 264. 317. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.398 0.312 0.248 0.207 0.234 0.228 0.195 0.190 0.221 0.173 PACF 0.398 0.183 0.090 0.058 0.111 0.081 0.031 0.043 0.091 0.004 95% C.L. 0.112 0.129 0.138 0.143 0.147 0.152 0.156 0.159 0.162 0.166 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.206 0.305 0.168 0.094 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 967011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00074954 0.68495047 2 967012 1 0.24179180 0.00767713 0.00000000 0.46244311 3 967021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008602 0.72412992 4 967022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021892 0.71282417 5 967041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00048918 0.57668948 6 967042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000142 0.63980997 7 967051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00069338 0.71788979 8 967052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056485 0.70629096 9 967071 1 0.20460834 0.00847654 0.00000000 0.50273883 10 967072 1 0.10538287 0.02892219 0.00000000 0.60563332 11 967081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00071770 0.64691681 12 967082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00051220 0.68408048 13 967111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00059889 0.68852812 14 967112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002043 0.64166498 15 967131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032822 0.66224009 16 967132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00052897 0.66306686 17 967151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006075 0.76881075 18 967152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005723 0.81587279 19 967181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028541 0.65165603 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 967182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012452 0.70485640 21 967191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012211 0.61737001 22 967192 1 0.14235541 0.00248519 0.00000000 0.53815371 23 967201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00100969 0.77854490 24 967202 1 0.16933866 0.00722359 0.00000000 0.58458745 25 967221 1 0.11288997 0.01921764 0.00000000 0.59416521 26 967222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00047737 0.66060144 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 967011 1674 1990 317 1.000 0.153 -0.160 3.041 0.120 0.520 2 967012 1685 1991 307 1.000 0.127 0.003 2.922 0.112 0.371 3 967021 1905 1991 87 1.000 0.111 -0.781 3.187 0.088 0.459 4 967022 1897 1991 95 1.000 0.113 -0.694 3.773 0.089 0.490 5 967041 1809 1991 183 1.000 0.149 -0.138 2.914 0.123 0.444 6 967042 1806 1991 186 1.000 0.115 -0.327 2.619 0.099 0.431 7 967051 1686 1990 305 1.000 0.135 -0.038 2.623 0.122 0.330 8 967052 1687 1991 305 1.000 0.128 -0.310 2.935 0.102 0.490 9 967071 1705 1968 264 1.000 0.129 -0.280 3.002 0.122 0.280 10 967072 1708 1991 284 1.000 0.129 -0.585 3.317 0.105 0.467 11 967081 1857 1984 128 1.000 0.183 -0.324 2.362 0.129 0.627 12 967082 1846 1990 145 1.000 0.168 0.005 2.195 0.120 0.583 13 967111 1914 1991 78 1.000 0.118 -0.405 2.716 0.089 0.547 14 967112 1903 1991 89 1.000 0.128 -0.270 2.787 0.098 0.536 15 967131 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.132 -0.261 2.488 0.109 0.441 16 967132 1856 1990 135 1.000 0.097 -0.942 3.676 0.079 0.450 17 967151 1897 1991 95 1.000 0.128 -0.819 3.046 0.086 0.640 18 967152 1905 1991 87 1.000 0.094 -0.641 3.386 0.079 0.405 19 967181 1835 1991 157 1.000 0.163 -0.115 2.197 0.119 0.588 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 967182 1854 1991 138 1.000 0.122 -0.105 2.131 0.097 0.497 21 967191 1696 1991 296 1.000 0.143 -0.322 2.553 0.109 0.525 22 967192 1757 1991 235 1.000 0.131 -0.471 3.507 0.103 0.507 23 967201 1830 1991 162 1.000 0.143 -0.269 2.306 0.103 0.590 24 967202 1801 1991 191 1.000 0.155 -0.464 3.036 0.133 0.435 25 967221 1832 1991 160 1.000 0.112 -0.193 2.805 0.107 0.275 26 967222 1794 1991 198 1.000 0.152 -0.193 2.781 0.134 0.400 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 183 1.000 0.133 -0.350 2.858 0.107 0.474 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.021 0.258 0.447 0.016 0.096 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 161 1.000 0.129 -0.295 2.859 0.106 0.478 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 136 0.000 0.031 0.312 0.492 0.023 0.105 MINIMUM VALUE 78 1.000 0.094 -0.942 2.131 0.079 0.275 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.118 -0.471 2.553 0.097 0.431 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 264 1.000 0.149 -0.160 3.046 0.120 0.536 MAXIMUM VALUE 317 1.000 0.183 0.005 3.773 0.134 0.640 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 967011 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 967012 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 967021 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 967022 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 967041 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 967042 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 967051 -67 204 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 967052 -67 204 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 967071 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 967072 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 967081 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 967082 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 967111 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 967112 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 967131 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 967132 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 967151 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 967152 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 967181 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 967182 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 967191 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 967192 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 967201 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 967202 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 967221 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 967222 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 967011 1674 1990 317 0.999 0.147 -0.203 3.176 0.120 0.481 2 967012 1685 1991 307 1.000 0.119 0.025 2.884 0.112 0.292 3 967021 1905 1991 87 0.999 0.096 -0.815 3.396 0.088 0.262 4 967022 1897 1991 95 0.999 0.095 -0.557 3.721 0.089 0.284 5 967041 1809 1991 183 0.999 0.144 -0.046 2.988 0.123 0.404 6 967042 1806 1991 186 1.000 0.110 -0.301 2.649 0.099 0.380 7 967051 1686 1990 305 1.000 0.131 -0.056 2.562 0.122 0.299 8 967052 1687 1991 305 0.999 0.114 -0.260 2.760 0.102 0.356 9 967071 1705 1968 264 1.000 0.127 -0.273 2.988 0.122 0.256 10 967072 1708 1991 284 0.999 0.122 -0.747 3.518 0.105 0.404 11 967081 1857 1984 128 0.998 0.154 -0.545 2.981 0.128 0.490 12 967082 1846 1990 145 0.999 0.139 -0.212 2.997 0.120 0.392 13 967111 1914 1991 78 0.999 0.093 0.025 3.069 0.089 0.251 14 967112 1903 1991 89 0.999 0.108 0.066 3.452 0.098 0.311 15 967131 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.118 -0.359 2.612 0.109 0.300 16 967132 1856 1990 135 1.000 0.087 -0.639 4.059 0.079 0.285 17 967151 1897 1991 95 0.998 0.101 -0.266 2.658 0.085 0.434 18 967152 1905 1991 87 1.000 0.087 -0.452 3.424 0.079 0.307 19 967181 1835 1991 157 0.998 0.138 -0.138 2.542 0.119 0.417 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 967182 1854 1991 138 0.999 0.106 -0.032 2.231 0.097 0.321 21 967191 1696 1991 296 0.999 0.137 -0.355 2.632 0.109 0.474 22 967192 1757 1991 235 0.999 0.123 -0.563 3.749 0.103 0.437 23 967201 1830 1991 162 0.999 0.123 -0.196 2.482 0.103 0.456 24 967202 1801 1991 191 0.999 0.147 -0.459 2.962 0.133 0.375 25 967221 1832 1991 160 0.999 0.105 -0.172 2.871 0.107 0.179 26 967222 1794 1991 198 0.999 0.143 -0.232 2.845 0.134 0.317 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 183 0.999 0.120 -0.299 3.008 0.107 0.352 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.020 0.241 0.445 0.016 0.082 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 161 0.999 0.121 -0.263 2.972 0.106 0.339 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 136 0.001 0.033 0.321 0.747 0.023 0.125 MINIMUM VALUE 78 0.998 0.087 -0.815 2.231 0.079 0.179 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 0.999 0.105 -0.459 2.649 0.097 0.292 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 264 1.000 0.138 -0.138 3.396 0.120 0.417 MAXIMUM VALUE 317 1.000 0.154 0.066 4.059 0.134 0.490 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.517 0.135 0.007 -0.421 3.362 -0.007 0.848 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.007 SERIES 967011 AND 967112 88 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.848 SERIES 967021 AND 967022 87 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 42.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 15. 21. 21. 28. 45. 78. 153. 190. 300. 300. RBAR 0.682 0.552 0.521 0.524 0.478 0.532 0.654 0.568 0.467 0.576 SDEV 0.087 0.184 0.151 0.160 0.290 0.215 0.180 0.158 0.173 0.131 SERR 0.022 0.040 0.033 0.030 0.043 0.024 0.015 0.011 0.010 0.008 EPS 0.937 0.902 0.900 0.918 0.925 0.952 0.975 0.968 0.958 0.972 NSS 6.9 7.5 8.3 10.2 13.5 17.6 20.3 23.2 25.8 25.8 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1674 1991 318 0.998 0.100 -0.464 2.969 0.094 0.287 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.037 0.013 0.063 104 214 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.81 1.00 1.11 1.92 158.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.286 0.177 0.090 0.059 0.092 0.111 0.075 0.058 0.091 0.055 PACF 0.286 0.104 0.017 0.015 0.068 0.069 0.012 0.011 0.063 0.003 95% C.L. 0.112 0.121 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.129 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.096 0.257 0.113 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.306 0.208 0.120 0.128 0.132 0.159 0.141 0.114 0.051 0.093 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.306 2 0.267 0.127 3 0.264 0.119 0.029 4 0.262 0.110 0.010 0.070 5 0.257 0.110 0.003 0.052 0.069 6 0.251 0.105 0.003 0.042 0.046 0.089 7 0.246 0.103 0.000 0.042 0.041 0.076 0.052 8 0.245 0.101 -0.001 0.041 0.041 0.074 0.046 0.024 9 0.246 0.102 0.002 0.043 0.042 0.074 0.049 0.032 -0.032 10 0.247 0.101 -0.001 0.039 0.040 0.071 0.049 0.027 -0.044 0.051 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2118.26 2088.97 2085.83 2087.56 2087.99 2088.47 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2087.94 2089.09 2090.90 2092.58 2093.75 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.267 0.127 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 10.83 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 112.14 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.267 0.198 0.087 0.048 0.024 0.013 0.006 0.003 0.002 0.0009 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 967011 2 0.276 0.387 0.201 2 967012 2 0.102 0.270 0.080 3 967021 2 0.079 0.279 -0.052 4 967022 2 0.108 0.272 0.088 5 967041 2 0.184 0.346 0.145 6 967042 2 0.166 0.327 0.146 7 967051 2 0.149 0.231 0.230 8 967052 2 0.158 0.302 0.161 9 967071 2 0.086 0.239 0.076 10 967072 2 0.187 0.347 0.149 11 967081 2 0.251 0.446 0.093 12 967082 2 0.181 0.347 0.117 13 967111 2 0.091 0.287 -0.134 14 967112 2 0.134 0.372 -0.166 15 967131 2 0.099 0.271 0.098 16 967132 2 0.109 0.250 0.130 17 967151 2 0.201 0.398 0.093 18 967152 2 0.099 0.305 0.018 19 967181 2 0.222 0.328 0.225 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 967182 2 0.113 0.295 0.089 21 967191 2 0.288 0.353 0.258 22 967192 2 0.244 0.351 0.200 23 967201 2 0.219 0.406 0.112 24 967202 2 0.162 0.318 0.151 25 967221 2 0.052 0.154 0.141 26 967222 2 0.123 0.267 0.158 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.157 0.313 0.108 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.065 0.063 0.100 MEDIAN 2 0.153 0.312 0.123 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.099 0.080 0.070 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.052 0.154 -0.166 LOWER HINGE 2 0.102 0.271 0.088 UPPER HINGE 2 0.201 0.351 0.158 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.288 0.446 0.258 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 967011 1674 1990 317 1.000 0.126 -0.138 3.268 0.144 -0.028 2 967012 1685 1991 307 1.000 0.114 0.032 3.179 0.129 -0.009 3 967021 1905 1991 87 1.000 0.092 -0.902 4.245 0.101 -0.006 4 967022 1897 1991 95 1.000 0.090 -0.688 4.340 0.099 0.010 5 967041 1809 1991 183 1.000 0.130 -0.013 2.667 0.149 -0.008 6 967042 1806 1991 186 1.000 0.100 -0.336 2.705 0.116 0.009 7 967051 1686 1990 305 1.000 0.122 0.037 2.862 0.136 -0.027 8 967052 1687 1991 305 1.000 0.105 -0.327 3.071 0.119 -0.017 9 967071 1705 1968 264 1.000 0.122 -0.205 3.178 0.139 -0.006 10 967072 1708 1991 284 1.000 0.110 -0.452 3.025 0.124 -0.004 11 967081 1857 1984 128 1.000 0.134 -0.181 2.495 0.151 0.005 12 967082 1846 1990 145 1.000 0.127 -0.024 3.106 0.143 -0.015 13 967111 1914 1991 78 1.000 0.090 -0.112 3.525 0.099 -0.016 14 967112 1903 1991 89 1.000 0.101 -0.175 4.105 0.107 -0.022 15 967131 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.112 -0.203 2.808 0.122 0.001 16 967132 1856 1990 135 1.000 0.082 -0.501 4.500 0.086 0.013 17 967151 1897 1991 95 1.000 0.091 -0.420 2.811 0.100 -0.005 18 967152 1905 1991 87 1.000 0.083 -0.489 4.011 0.093 -0.002 19 967181 1835 1991 157 1.000 0.122 -0.103 2.865 0.138 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 967182 1854 1991 138 1.000 0.100 0.009 2.598 0.112 0.006 21 967191 1696 1991 296 1.000 0.116 -0.259 3.544 0.130 -0.031 22 967192 1757 1991 235 1.000 0.108 -0.570 4.295 0.121 -0.033 23 967201 1830 1991 162 1.000 0.109 -0.228 2.789 0.124 -0.002 24 967202 1801 1991 191 1.000 0.135 -0.270 2.878 0.152 0.008 25 967221 1832 1991 160 1.000 0.102 -0.121 3.103 0.115 0.003 26 967222 1794 1991 198 1.000 0.134 0.065 2.953 0.154 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 183 1.000 0.110 -0.253 3.266 0.123 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.016 0.240 0.606 0.020 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 161 1.000 0.110 -0.204 3.087 0.123 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 136 0.000 0.022 0.317 0.733 0.032 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 78 1.000 0.082 -0.902 2.495 0.086 -0.033 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.100 -0.420 2.811 0.107 -0.016 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 264 1.000 0.122 -0.103 3.544 0.139 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 317 1.000 0.135 0.065 4.500 0.154 0.013 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.541 0.131 0.007 -0.749 3.890 0.059 0.857 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.059 SERIES 967011 AND 967112 88 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.857 SERIES 967021 AND 967022 87 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 42.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 15. 21. 21. 28. 45. 78. 153. 190. 300. 300. RBAR 0.706 0.679 0.617 0.558 0.536 0.634 0.713 0.616 0.513 0.532 SDEV 0.091 0.090 0.106 0.126 0.205 0.151 0.109 0.120 0.156 0.133 SERR 0.024 0.020 0.023 0.024 0.031 0.017 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.944 0.940 0.930 0.928 0.940 0.968 0.981 0.974 0.965 0.967 NSS 6.9 7.5 8.3 10.2 13.5 17.6 20.3 23.2 25.8 25.8 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1674 1991 318 1.000 0.092 -0.266 3.034 0.106 -0.068 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.020 -0.006 0.072 99 219 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.67 1.00 1.10 1.77 101.73 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.10 0.00 0.83 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.068 -0.058 -0.014 -0.030 0.032 0.060 0.008 -0.012 0.062 0.057 PACF -0.068 -0.063 -0.022 -0.036 0.025 0.060 0.020 -0.002 0.068 0.071 95% C.L. 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.002 -0.023 -0.029 0.035 0.062 0.018 0.001 0.060 0.055 PACF -0.001 -0.002 -0.023 -0.029 0.035 0.061 0.017 0.002 0.065 0.059 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 -0.001 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1674 1991 318 1.000 0.097 -0.380 2.782 0.090 0.303 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.302 0.199 0.075 0.041 0.073 0.090 0.061 0.047 0.072 0.053 PACF 0.302 0.119 -0.015 0.001 0.062 0.058 0.004 0.007 0.053 0.014 95% C.L. 0.112 0.122 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.129 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.107 0.266 0.126 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES