RUN: russredo FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS100N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS100N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 967 1 Polui River Head DENSITY_MINIMUM PISY - 967 2 Russia Scots pine, Scotch pine 35 6518-6941 1674 1991 - 967 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 967021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1967 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 967022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1935 1939 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 967051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1819 1819 / 1894 1894 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 967052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 3 GAPS / 1821 1826 / 1892 1892 / 1977 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 967071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1889 1895 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 967081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1929 1933 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 967082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1919 1919 / 1979 1979 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 967112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1924 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 967182 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1864 1864 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 967191 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 3 GAPS / 1756 1761 / 1770 1770 / 1893 1893 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 967192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1839 1843 / 1927 1927 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 967201 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 3 GAPS / 1863 1863 / 1892 1893 / 1980 1985 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 967202 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1862 1862 / 1892 1893 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 967221 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1893 1894 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 967222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1893 1894 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 967011 1674 1990 317 0.229 0.033 1.068 5.269 0.112 0.432 2 967012 1685 1991 307 0.231 0.027 1.029 5.568 0.103 0.313 3 967021 1905 1991 87 0.280 0.022 -0.439 2.710 0.071 0.456 4 967022 1897 1991 95 0.294 0.026 -0.029 2.943 0.067 0.540 5 967041 1809 1991 183 0.243 0.030 0.756 4.209 0.093 0.407 6 967042 1806 1991 186 0.265 0.025 0.542 3.417 0.082 0.324 7 967051 1686 1990 305 0.245 0.036 0.761 5.070 0.108 0.454 8 967052 1687 1991 305 0.238 0.028 1.103 5.302 0.096 0.359 9 967071 1705 1968 264 0.223 0.030 2.334 13.412 0.101 0.435 10 967072 1708 1991 284 0.237 0.025 0.467 3.107 0.088 0.399 11 967081 1857 1984 128 0.233 0.027 1.194 6.996 0.100 0.304 12 967082 1846 1990 145 0.263 0.028 0.647 3.290 0.098 0.242 13 967111 1914 1991 78 0.264 0.025 -0.134 3.445 0.077 0.499 14 967112 1903 1991 89 0.264 0.038 2.543 13.069 0.079 0.571 15 967131 1851 1991 141 0.247 0.025 0.490 3.623 0.078 0.495 16 967132 1856 1990 135 0.270 0.040 0.618 2.981 0.100 0.650 17 967151 1897 1991 95 0.300 0.027 0.482 4.554 0.076 0.427 18 967152 1905 1991 87 0.307 0.037 -0.065 2.265 0.082 0.614 19 967181 1835 1991 157 0.302 0.034 0.248 3.136 0.079 0.585 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 967182 1854 1991 138 0.291 0.030 0.193 2.308 0.075 0.545 21 967191 1696 1991 296 0.261 0.028 1.088 5.811 0.082 0.464 22 967192 1757 1991 235 0.239 0.023 0.665 6.882 0.089 0.254 23 967201 1830 1991 162 0.257 0.025 -0.013 4.548 0.081 0.398 24 967202 1801 1991 191 0.274 0.037 0.593 4.383 0.101 0.477 25 967221 1832 1991 160 0.258 0.033 2.614 19.100 0.091 0.229 26 967222 1794 1991 198 0.263 0.034 1.041 4.862 0.105 0.300 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1674 TO 1991 318 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 181 0.261 0.030 0.761 5.472 0.089 0.430 STANDARD DEVIATION 79 0.024 0.005 0.770 3.920 0.012 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 157 0.262 0.028 0.633 4.465 0.088 0.434 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 134 0.035 0.009 0.820 2.432 0.021 0.174 MINIMUM VALUE 78 0.223 0.022 -0.439 2.265 0.067 0.229 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 0.239 0.025 0.248 3.136 0.079 0.324 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 257 0.274 0.034 1.068 5.568 0.100 0.499 MAXIMUM VALUE 317 0.307 0.040 2.614 19.100 0.112 0.650 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.257 0.160 0.009 -0.233 2.854 -0.218 0.615 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.218 SERIES 967051 AND 967151 94 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.615 SERIES 967111 AND 967182 78 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 42.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 15. 21. 21. 28. 45. 78. 153. 190. 300. 300. RBAR 0.454 0.541 0.533 0.521 0.520 0.298 0.323 0.300 0.324 0.185 SDEV 0.154 0.098 0.113 0.131 0.132 0.223 0.169 0.169 0.182 0.227 SERR 0.040 0.021 0.025 0.025 0.020 0.025 0.014 0.012 0.010 0.013 EPS 0.852 0.898 0.904 0.917 0.936 0.882 0.907 0.908 0.925 0.854 NSS 6.9 7.5 8.3 10.2 13.5 17.6 20.3 23.2 25.8 25.8 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1674 1991 318 0.251 0.022 0.780 4.913 0.075 0.397 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.085 0.043 0.017 66 252 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 1.00 1.01 1.09 2.09 9999.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.83 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 161. 136. 78. 128. 264. 317. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.396 0.366 0.285 0.309 0.305 0.341 0.315 0.340 0.252 0.270 PACF 0.396 0.248 0.099 0.142 0.121 0.149 0.088 0.116 -0.013 0.040 95% C.L. 0.112 0.129 0.141 0.148 0.156 0.163 0.172 0.179 0.187 0.191 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 8 0.288 0.187 0.132 0.010 0.076 0.067 0.113 0.080 0.137 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 967011 1 0.07252188 0.01321636 0.00000000 0.21237183 2 967012 1 0.05231050 0.03940048 0.00000000 0.22673734 3 967021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044573 0.26071006 4 967022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040763 0.27470070 5 967041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009957 0.23351708 6 967042 1 0.05140191 0.00143121 0.00000000 0.22028364 7 967051 1 0.06990651 0.01078609 0.00000000 0.22460677 8 967052 1 0.03708537 0.02052731 0.00000000 0.23325320 9 967071 1 0.20185131 0.16796659 0.00000000 0.21877624 10 967072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011769 0.22020032 11 967081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000136 0.23359044 12 967082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010350 0.25470629 13 967111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040415 0.28032300 14 967112 1 0.38464028 0.58601296 0.00000000 0.25812188 15 967131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010964 0.25501823 16 967132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001522 0.27073854 17 967151 1 0.04819850 0.01427052 0.00000000 0.27359098 18 967152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00077386 0.34060144 19 967181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00033965 0.27552426 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 967182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014392 0.28108126 21 967191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004171 0.25540343 22 967192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003435 0.23481050 23 967201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019015 0.24190636 24 967202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031053 0.24446087 25 967221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019014 0.27319163 26 967222 1 0.03607776 0.01575132 0.00000000 0.25228569 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 967011 1674 1990 317 1.000 0.118 1.260 7.657 0.112 0.175 2 967012 1685 1991 307 1.000 0.112 1.118 6.409 0.103 0.223 3 967021 1905 1991 87 1.000 0.067 0.122 2.654 0.070 0.263 4 967022 1897 1991 95 1.000 0.077 0.347 3.403 0.063 0.399 5 967041 1809 1991 183 1.000 0.124 1.152 5.196 0.092 0.386 6 967042 1806 1991 186 1.000 0.093 0.416 3.270 0.081 0.312 7 967051 1686 1990 305 1.000 0.128 1.100 7.940 0.109 0.250 8 967052 1687 1991 305 1.000 0.114 1.071 5.493 0.095 0.324 9 967071 1705 1968 264 1.000 0.100 0.946 7.541 0.101 0.116 10 967072 1708 1991 284 1.000 0.096 0.521 3.830 0.088 0.292 11 967081 1857 1984 128 1.000 0.114 1.175 7.100 0.098 0.298 12 967082 1846 1990 145 1.000 0.106 0.729 3.615 0.096 0.237 13 967111 1914 1991 78 1.000 0.088 -0.377 4.003 0.076 0.401 14 967112 1903 1991 89 1.000 0.099 0.490 5.132 0.076 0.477 15 967131 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.100 0.392 3.319 0.077 0.477 16 967132 1856 1990 135 1.000 0.150 0.621 2.974 0.099 0.645 17 967151 1897 1991 95 1.000 0.085 0.327 3.405 0.076 0.376 18 967152 1905 1991 87 1.000 0.102 -0.430 2.686 0.082 0.433 19 967181 1835 1991 157 1.000 0.103 0.984 5.696 0.079 0.481 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 967182 1854 1991 138 1.000 0.099 0.039 2.304 0.075 0.515 21 967191 1696 1991 296 1.000 0.105 1.122 5.775 0.082 0.464 22 967192 1757 1991 235 1.000 0.097 0.639 6.746 0.088 0.245 23 967201 1830 1991 162 1.000 0.091 0.063 4.438 0.084 0.275 24 967202 1801 1991 191 1.000 0.121 1.304 8.935 0.101 0.334 25 967221 1832 1991 160 1.000 0.122 2.657 20.598 0.093 0.143 26 967222 1794 1991 198 1.000 0.126 1.165 5.458 0.107 0.226 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 183 1.000 0.105 0.729 5.599 0.089 0.337 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.018 0.634 3.580 0.013 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 161 1.000 0.103 0.684 5.164 0.088 0.318 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 136 0.000 0.022 0.775 3.343 0.022 0.188 MINIMUM VALUE 78 1.000 0.067 -0.430 2.304 0.063 0.116 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.096 0.347 3.403 0.077 0.245 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 264 1.000 0.118 1.122 6.746 0.099 0.433 MAXIMUM VALUE 317 1.000 0.150 2.657 20.598 0.112 0.645 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 967011 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 967012 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 967021 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 967022 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 967041 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 967042 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 967051 -67 204 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 967052 -67 204 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 967071 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 967072 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 967081 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 967082 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 967111 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 967112 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 967131 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 967132 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 967151 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 967152 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 967181 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 967182 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 967191 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 967192 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 967201 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 967202 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 967221 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 967222 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 967011 1674 1990 317 1.000 0.114 1.248 8.087 0.112 0.123 2 967012 1685 1991 307 1.000 0.110 1.067 6.189 0.103 0.206 3 967021 1905 1991 87 1.000 0.054 -0.129 2.567 0.069 -0.086 4 967022 1897 1991 95 1.000 0.069 0.508 4.007 0.063 0.244 5 967041 1809 1991 183 1.000 0.121 1.300 5.947 0.092 0.349 6 967042 1806 1991 186 1.000 0.092 0.439 3.337 0.081 0.292 7 967051 1686 1990 305 1.000 0.121 1.628 11.513 0.109 0.142 8 967052 1687 1991 305 1.000 0.108 1.039 5.565 0.095 0.267 9 967071 1705 1968 264 1.000 0.098 1.101 8.088 0.101 0.070 10 967072 1708 1991 284 1.000 0.087 0.550 4.395 0.088 0.147 11 967081 1857 1984 128 1.000 0.107 1.389 8.486 0.098 0.204 12 967082 1846 1990 145 1.000 0.101 0.777 4.204 0.097 0.153 13 967111 1914 1991 78 0.999 0.069 -0.251 4.111 0.077 -0.030 14 967112 1903 1991 89 0.999 0.084 0.332 4.254 0.076 0.263 15 967131 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.089 0.110 3.108 0.078 0.348 16 967132 1856 1990 135 0.999 0.116 0.463 3.677 0.100 0.444 17 967151 1897 1991 95 1.000 0.076 0.596 4.043 0.076 0.208 18 967152 1905 1991 87 0.999 0.083 -0.387 3.345 0.082 0.178 19 967181 1835 1991 157 1.000 0.095 0.756 5.473 0.079 0.393 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 967182 1854 1991 138 0.999 0.081 -0.040 2.264 0.075 0.274 21 967191 1696 1991 296 1.000 0.099 0.982 5.468 0.082 0.398 22 967192 1757 1991 235 1.000 0.093 0.734 6.991 0.089 0.170 23 967201 1830 1991 162 1.000 0.087 0.328 4.780 0.084 0.198 24 967202 1801 1991 191 1.000 0.114 1.241 8.283 0.101 0.269 25 967221 1832 1991 160 0.999 0.116 3.083 25.782 0.093 0.053 26 967222 1794 1991 198 1.000 0.119 1.074 5.149 0.107 0.149 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 183 1.000 0.096 0.767 6.120 0.089 0.209 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.018 0.711 4.558 0.013 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 161 1.000 0.097 0.745 4.964 0.088 0.205 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 136 0.000 0.029 0.768 2.984 0.022 0.127 MINIMUM VALUE 78 0.999 0.054 -0.387 2.264 0.063 -0.086 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.084 0.332 4.007 0.078 0.147 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 264 1.000 0.114 1.101 6.991 0.100 0.274 MAXIMUM VALUE 317 1.000 0.121 3.083 25.782 0.112 0.444 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.272 0.112 0.006 -0.174 3.374 -0.148 0.577 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.148 SERIES 967041 AND 967112 89 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.577 SERIES 967071 AND 967072 261 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 42.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 15. 21. 21. 28. 45. 78. 153. 190. 300. 300. RBAR 0.526 0.529 0.532 0.547 0.520 0.312 0.346 0.323 0.286 0.191 SDEV 0.087 0.102 0.110 0.102 0.131 0.191 0.157 0.161 0.162 0.170 SERR 0.022 0.022 0.024 0.019 0.020 0.022 0.013 0.012 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.885 0.893 0.904 0.925 0.936 0.889 0.915 0.917 0.912 0.859 NSS 6.9 7.5 8.3 10.2 13.5 17.6 20.3 23.2 25.8 25.8 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1674 1991 318 0.997 0.071 0.986 5.961 0.075 0.103 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.208 0.079 -0.009 88 230 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.58 1.00 1.09 1.67 34.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.102 0.104 -0.031 -0.025 -0.032 0.043 0.011 0.052 -0.092 0.011 PACF 0.102 0.095 -0.051 -0.027 -0.019 0.053 0.006 0.038 -0.103 0.024 95% C.L. 0.112 0.113 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.022 0.093 0.095 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.077 0.151 -0.078 0.021 -0.023 0.032 0.018 0.012 0.020 0.079 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.077 2 0.066 0.146 3 0.081 0.153 -0.102 4 0.082 0.151 -0.103 0.013 5 0.082 0.151 -0.103 0.013 0.002 6 0.082 0.151 -0.101 0.009 0.000 0.022 7 0.081 0.151 -0.101 0.012 -0.003 0.020 0.021 8 0.081 0.151 -0.101 0.012 -0.003 0.020 0.021 -0.002 9 0.081 0.150 -0.102 0.012 -0.003 0.022 0.018 -0.003 0.019 10 0.080 0.151 -0.103 0.010 -0.003 0.021 0.026 -0.015 0.012 0.080 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1813.08 1813.19 1808.33 1807.00 1808.95 1810.95 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1812.80 1814.66 1816.66 1818.55 1818.51 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.081 0.153 -0.102 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.73 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.87 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.081 0.159 -0.077 0.010 -0.027 0.007 -0.005 0.004 -0.001 0.0009 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 967011 3 0.022 0.114 0.050 0.059 2 967012 3 0.044 0.203 0.013 0.010 3 967021 3 0.024 -0.092 -0.040 -0.122 4 967022 3 0.114 0.192 0.125 0.118 5 967041 3 0.182 0.283 0.263 -0.077 6 967042 3 0.172 0.229 0.303 -0.071 7 967051 3 0.062 0.120 0.203 -0.031 8 967052 3 0.110 0.210 0.172 0.049 9 967071 3 0.030 0.061 0.142 -0.010 10 967072 3 0.047 0.123 0.129 0.035 11 967081 3 0.051 0.197 0.054 -0.052 12 967082 3 0.074 0.151 0.188 -0.133 13 967111 3 0.016 -0.028 -0.066 0.070 14 967112 3 0.086 0.253 0.007 0.098 15 967131 3 0.195 0.228 0.245 0.100 16 967132 3 0.209 0.423 0.096 -0.079 17 967151 3 0.123 0.175 0.227 -0.024 18 967152 3 0.056 0.173 0.050 -0.026 19 967181 3 0.187 0.331 0.163 0.019 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 967182 3 0.140 0.204 0.254 0.014 21 967191 3 0.187 0.321 0.129 0.088 22 967192 3 0.037 0.158 0.054 0.034 23 967201 3 0.070 0.182 0.036 0.108 24 967202 3 0.109 0.227 0.197 -0.033 25 967221 3 0.041 0.058 0.060 -0.146 26 967222 3 0.050 0.135 0.091 0.006 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.094 0.178 0.121 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.062 0.107 0.097 0.076 MEDIAN 3 0.072 0.187 0.127 0.008 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.096 0.105 0.147 0.110 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.016 -0.092 -0.066 -0.146 LOWER HINGE 3 0.044 0.123 0.050 -0.052 UPPER HINGE 3 0.140 0.228 0.197 0.059 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.209 0.423 0.303 0.118 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 967011 1674 1990 317 1.000 0.112 1.158 7.776 0.120 0.002 2 967012 1685 1991 307 1.000 0.108 1.078 6.101 0.114 0.000 3 967021 1905 1991 87 1.000 0.054 -0.155 2.745 0.065 0.003 4 967022 1897 1991 95 1.000 0.065 0.591 4.134 0.071 -0.018 5 967041 1809 1991 183 1.000 0.110 0.551 5.191 0.108 0.005 6 967042 1806 1991 186 1.000 0.084 0.222 3.767 0.090 -0.006 7 967051 1686 1990 305 1.000 0.117 1.718 12.281 0.115 0.001 8 967052 1687 1991 305 1.000 0.103 1.163 6.998 0.107 -0.005 9 967071 1705 1968 264 1.000 0.097 1.144 8.580 0.104 -0.001 10 967072 1708 1991 284 1.000 0.086 0.551 4.439 0.094 -0.003 11 967081 1857 1984 128 1.000 0.104 1.426 8.272 0.107 0.004 12 967082 1846 1990 145 1.000 0.097 0.855 4.946 0.100 0.007 13 967111 1914 1991 78 1.000 0.069 -0.154 3.920 0.075 0.006 14 967112 1903 1991 89 1.000 0.081 0.087 4.449 0.084 0.009 15 967131 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.080 0.245 3.730 0.089 -0.001 16 967132 1856 1990 135 1.000 0.103 0.129 3.075 0.120 -0.005 17 967151 1897 1991 95 1.000 0.072 0.484 3.952 0.082 -0.005 18 967152 1905 1991 87 1.000 0.082 -0.465 3.588 0.089 0.001 19 967181 1835 1991 157 1.000 0.085 0.894 5.664 0.092 -0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 967182 1854 1991 138 1.000 0.075 0.184 2.753 0.084 -0.002 21 967191 1696 1991 296 1.000 0.089 0.899 5.750 0.097 -0.006 22 967192 1757 1991 235 1.000 0.091 0.760 7.688 0.096 -0.002 23 967201 1830 1991 162 1.000 0.085 0.535 4.809 0.094 -0.015 24 967202 1801 1991 191 1.000 0.108 1.242 7.795 0.111 0.005 25 967221 1832 1991 160 1.000 0.114 2.829 23.377 0.096 0.018 26 967222 1794 1991 198 1.000 0.117 1.223 5.504 0.115 -0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 183 1.000 0.092 0.738 6.203 0.097 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.017 0.688 4.140 0.015 0.007 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 161 1.000 0.090 0.675 5.068 0.096 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 136 0.000 0.027 0.936 3.767 0.020 0.008 MINIMUM VALUE 78 1.000 0.054 -0.465 2.745 0.065 -0.018 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.081 0.222 3.920 0.089 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 264 1.000 0.108 1.158 7.688 0.108 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 317 1.000 0.117 2.829 23.377 0.120 0.018 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.288 0.107 0.006 -0.030 3.239 -0.108 0.572 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.108 SERIES 967041 AND 967112 89 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.572 SERIES 967071 AND 967072 261 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 42.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 15. 21. 21. 28. 45. 78. 153. 190. 300. 300. RBAR 0.557 0.544 0.563 0.539 0.511 0.350 0.365 0.325 0.295 0.221 SDEV 0.081 0.091 0.090 0.104 0.129 0.155 0.154 0.150 0.139 0.145 SERR 0.021 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.019 0.018 0.012 0.011 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.897 0.899 0.914 0.923 0.934 0.904 0.921 0.918 0.915 0.880 NSS 6.9 7.5 8.3 10.2 13.5 17.6 20.3 23.2 25.8 25.8 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1674 1991 318 0.999 0.070 0.815 5.204 0.080 -0.057 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.219 0.081 -0.015 92 226 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.45 1.00 1.09 1.54 34.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.056 -0.021 -0.076 -0.039 -0.044 0.033 0.017 0.067 -0.091 0.005 PACF -0.056 -0.024 -0.079 -0.049 -0.054 0.019 0.010 0.062 -0.083 0.001 95% C.L. 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.005 -0.002 -0.051 -0.043 0.020 0.016 0.060 -0.088 0.007 PACF -0.004 -0.005 -0.002 -0.051 -0.044 0.019 0.016 0.058 -0.092 0.007 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.003 -0.004 -0.005 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1674 1991 318 0.998 0.071 0.934 5.819 0.076 0.075 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.075 0.141 -0.095 -0.041 -0.075 0.034 0.003 0.064 -0.081 0.000 PACF 0.075 0.136 -0.117 -0.047 -0.040 0.046 0.005 0.040 -0.092 -0.001 95% C.L. 0.112 0.113 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.118 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.040 0.081 0.145 -0.118 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES