RUN: RUSS003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS096X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS096X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 963 1 Murmashi DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCAB - 963 2 Russia Norway spruce 140 6846-3248 1678 1992 - 963 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 963072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 62 IN 1 GAPS / 1897 1958 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 963281 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1727 1733 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 963282 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1745 1748 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 963301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 2 GAPS / 1795 1796 / 1908 1912 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 963302 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1795 1796 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 963312 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1796 1797 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 963051 1678 1992 315 0.748 0.082 -0.408 3.484 0.104 0.292 2 963052 1682 1992 311 0.705 0.084 -0.183 2.529 0.106 0.401 3 963061 1714 1992 279 0.765 0.099 -0.474 2.980 0.108 0.479 4 963062 1711 1992 282 0.757 0.110 -0.747 3.339 0.108 0.560 5 963071 1705 1992 288 0.778 0.070 -0.523 3.909 0.085 0.270 6 963072 1703 1992 290 0.791 0.065 -0.712 3.217 0.074 0.352 7 963171 1699 1992 294 0.700 0.123 -0.510 2.458 0.118 0.680 8 963172 1711 1992 282 0.722 0.099 -0.431 3.164 0.113 0.498 9 963181 1746 1992 247 0.804 0.083 -0.593 3.821 0.081 0.540 10 963182 1751 1992 242 0.814 0.073 -0.459 3.213 0.089 0.271 11 963191 1727 1992 266 0.778 0.091 -0.212 3.107 0.115 0.230 12 963192 1734 1992 259 0.781 0.101 -0.358 2.775 0.107 0.447 13 963201 1750 1992 243 0.840 0.108 -0.407 2.696 0.082 0.685 14 963202 1750 1992 243 0.881 0.083 -0.668 3.351 0.077 0.478 15 963231 1726 1992 267 0.776 0.112 -0.470 2.737 0.132 0.377 16 963232 1716 1992 277 0.792 0.110 -0.714 3.645 0.136 0.318 17 963241 1734 1992 259 0.754 0.096 -0.492 3.364 0.113 0.433 18 963242 1746 1992 247 0.751 0.106 -0.282 2.406 0.109 0.550 19 963251 1731 1992 262 0.843 0.095 -0.952 3.990 0.094 0.457 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 963252 1734 1992 259 0.814 0.087 -0.810 3.893 0.092 0.431 21 963261 1772 1992 221 0.819 0.089 -0.823 3.905 0.107 0.241 22 963262 1778 1992 215 0.837 0.087 -1.075 4.514 0.103 0.278 23 963281 1694 1992 299 0.707 0.128 -0.429 2.872 0.157 0.439 24 963282 1704 1964 261 0.738 0.123 -0.277 2.831 0.137 0.496 25 963291 1732 1992 261 0.736 0.115 -0.407 2.543 0.157 0.273 26 963292 1745 1992 248 0.778 0.117 -0.500 2.871 0.149 0.293 27 963301 1760 1992 233 0.780 0.096 -0.386 3.154 0.129 0.162 28 963302 1755 1992 238 0.748 0.105 -0.569 3.035 0.135 0.256 29 963311 1733 1973 241 0.741 0.110 -0.249 2.856 0.124 0.481 30 963312 1740 1975 236 0.734 0.099 -0.243 2.947 0.131 0.258 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1678 TO 1992 315 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 0.774 0.098 -0.512 3.187 0.112 0.398 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.044 0.016 0.220 0.522 0.023 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 259 0.777 0.099 -0.472 3.131 0.108 0.416 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 37 0.063 0.023 0.282 0.653 0.037 0.209 MINIMUM VALUE 215 0.700 0.065 -1.075 2.406 0.074 0.162 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 242 0.741 0.087 -0.668 2.831 0.094 0.273 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 279 0.804 0.110 -0.386 3.484 0.131 0.481 MAXIMUM VALUE 315 0.881 0.128 -0.183 4.514 0.157 0.685 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.450 0.116 0.006 0.220 3.323 0.140 0.840 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.140 SERIES 963172 AND 963182 242 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.840 SERIES 963061 AND 963062 279 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.01 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 21. 78. 351. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 351. RBAR 0.305 0.380 0.552 0.512 0.480 0.512 0.516 0.546 0.474 0.392 SDEV 0.208 0.210 0.150 0.178 0.174 0.184 0.175 0.171 0.187 0.191 SERR 0.045 0.024 0.008 0.009 0.008 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.870 0.937 0.973 0.969 0.965 0.969 0.970 0.973 0.964 0.950 NSS 15.3 24.4 29.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.5 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1678 1992 315 0.775 0.067 -0.636 3.391 0.088 0.216 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.361 -0.143 0.191 69 246 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.24 1.00 1.06 1.29 3.16 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 260. 39. 215. 243. 282. 315. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.215 0.180 0.213 0.160 0.071 0.059 0.132 0.031 -0.020 0.014 PACF 0.215 0.140 0.160 0.078 -0.020 -0.011 0.088 -0.028 -0.060 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.113 0.118 0.121 0.126 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.131 0.131 0.131 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.098 0.162 0.113 0.165 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 963051 1 0.05900391 0.01211945 0.00000000 0.73300833 2 963052 1 0.13808130 0.01319925 0.00000000 0.67231411 3 963061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009400 0.75182199 4 963062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003265 0.75254363 5 963071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014898 0.79944396 6 963072 1 0.04491569 0.02568556 0.00000000 0.78517962 7 963171 1 0.15920655 0.01079005 0.00000000 0.65248895 8 963172 1 0.14084378 0.02071681 0.00000000 0.69862235 9 963181 1 0.22015578 0.11295562 0.00000000 0.79614973 10 963182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003612 0.81823123 11 963191 1 0.22541444 0.00216227 0.00000000 0.60683268 12 963192 1 0.11068776 0.01553517 0.00000000 0.75381118 13 963201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00084245 0.94228548 14 963202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004831 0.87496990 15 963231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00073256 0.87419337 16 963232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00055342 0.86880314 17 963241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014845 0.77312112 18 963242 1 0.10906203 0.01456059 0.00000000 0.72201824 19 963251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030537 0.80247784 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 963252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005064 0.80747062 21 963261 1 0.05936493 0.03219829 0.00000000 0.81039512 22 963262 1 0.05402063 0.01815614 0.00000000 0.82386607 23 963281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00057852 0.79428446 24 963282 1 0.22242935 0.00623121 0.00000000 0.62863690 25 963291 1 0.20050882 0.02300739 0.00000000 0.70259058 26 963292 1 0.23694120 0.08146676 0.00000000 0.76652604 27 963301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007309 0.76785147 28 963302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00042099 0.69594413 29 963311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004126 0.73592013 30 963312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009405 0.72128838 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 963051 1678 1992 315 1.000 0.108 -0.417 3.477 0.104 0.263 2 963052 1682 1992 311 1.000 0.110 -0.207 2.796 0.106 0.285 3 963061 1714 1992 279 1.000 0.129 -0.523 2.956 0.107 0.474 4 963062 1711 1992 282 1.000 0.145 -0.761 3.352 0.108 0.557 5 963071 1705 1992 288 1.000 0.089 -0.456 3.820 0.085 0.242 6 963072 1703 1992 290 1.000 0.078 -0.655 3.121 0.074 0.308 7 963171 1699 1992 294 1.000 0.169 -0.296 2.476 0.117 0.653 8 963172 1711 1992 282 1.000 0.132 -0.263 3.418 0.113 0.445 9 963181 1746 1992 247 1.000 0.099 -0.681 3.990 0.080 0.498 10 963182 1751 1992 242 1.000 0.090 -0.423 3.200 0.089 0.269 11 963191 1727 1992 266 1.000 0.112 -0.147 3.356 0.115 0.140 12 963192 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.125 -0.263 2.750 0.107 0.399 13 963201 1750 1992 243 1.000 0.109 -0.200 3.596 0.081 0.554 14 963202 1750 1992 243 1.000 0.094 -0.692 3.354 0.077 0.475 15 963231 1726 1992 267 1.000 0.127 -0.178 2.819 0.132 0.166 16 963232 1716 1992 277 1.000 0.129 -0.513 3.502 0.135 0.178 17 963241 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.127 -0.455 3.362 0.112 0.424 18 963242 1746 1992 247 1.000 0.137 -0.190 2.408 0.108 0.517 19 963251 1731 1992 262 1.000 0.110 -0.879 4.048 0.094 0.433 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 963252 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.107 -0.821 3.911 0.092 0.428 21 963261 1772 1992 221 1.000 0.108 -0.855 3.891 0.107 0.218 22 963262 1778 1992 215 1.000 0.102 -1.112 4.572 0.103 0.256 23 963281 1694 1992 299 1.000 0.167 -0.389 2.963 0.158 0.325 24 963282 1704 1964 261 1.000 0.153 -0.078 3.990 0.135 0.394 25 963291 1732 1992 261 1.000 0.146 -0.368 2.868 0.156 0.133 26 963292 1745 1992 248 1.000 0.145 -0.537 2.945 0.148 0.228 27 963301 1760 1992 233 1.000 0.124 -0.352 3.014 0.127 0.199 28 963302 1755 1992 238 1.000 0.136 -0.712 3.127 0.134 0.235 29 963311 1733 1973 241 1.000 0.148 -0.281 2.829 0.123 0.479 30 963312 1740 1975 236 1.000 0.136 -0.284 2.952 0.132 0.275 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 262 1.000 0.123 -0.466 3.295 0.112 0.348 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.000 0.023 0.257 0.512 0.023 0.141 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 260 1.000 0.126 -0.420 3.276 0.108 0.316 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.000 0.029 0.418 0.651 0.038 0.239 MINIMUM VALUE 215 1.000 0.078 -1.112 2.408 0.074 0.133 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.108 -0.681 2.945 0.094 0.235 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 282 1.000 0.137 -0.263 3.596 0.132 0.474 MAXIMUM VALUE 315 1.000 0.169 -0.078 4.572 0.158 0.653 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 963051 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 963052 -67 208 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 963061 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 963062 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 963071 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 963072 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 963171 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 963172 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 963181 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 963182 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 963191 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 963192 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 963201 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 963202 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 963231 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 963232 -67 185 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 963241 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 963242 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 963251 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 963252 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 963261 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 963262 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 963281 -67 200 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 963282 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 963291 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 963292 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 963301 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 963302 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 963311 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 963312 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 963051 1678 1992 315 1.000 0.107 -0.434 3.515 0.104 0.255 2 963052 1682 1992 311 1.000 0.107 -0.189 2.849 0.106 0.247 3 963061 1714 1992 279 1.000 0.123 -0.514 2.949 0.107 0.426 4 963062 1711 1992 282 1.000 0.142 -0.556 3.128 0.108 0.531 5 963071 1705 1992 288 1.000 0.086 -0.492 3.845 0.085 0.184 6 963072 1703 1992 290 1.000 0.077 -0.686 3.183 0.074 0.284 7 963171 1699 1992 294 0.998 0.137 -0.112 2.874 0.118 0.472 8 963172 1711 1992 282 1.000 0.126 -0.382 3.520 0.113 0.397 9 963181 1746 1992 247 1.000 0.097 -0.577 3.789 0.081 0.477 10 963182 1751 1992 242 1.000 0.089 -0.390 3.189 0.089 0.243 11 963191 1727 1992 266 1.000 0.108 -0.165 3.429 0.115 0.087 12 963192 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.122 -0.260 2.900 0.107 0.360 13 963201 1750 1992 243 1.000 0.107 -0.255 3.614 0.081 0.533 14 963202 1750 1992 243 1.000 0.090 -0.582 3.396 0.077 0.426 15 963231 1726 1992 267 1.000 0.125 -0.219 2.933 0.132 0.131 16 963232 1716 1992 277 1.000 0.123 -0.561 3.790 0.135 0.106 17 963241 1734 1992 259 0.999 0.120 -0.339 3.380 0.112 0.349 18 963242 1746 1992 247 0.999 0.124 -0.034 2.476 0.108 0.410 19 963251 1731 1992 262 1.000 0.103 -0.943 4.259 0.094 0.355 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 963252 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.103 -0.828 3.947 0.092 0.381 21 963261 1772 1992 221 1.000 0.107 -0.890 3.995 0.107 0.206 22 963262 1778 1992 215 1.000 0.102 -1.105 4.547 0.103 0.249 23 963281 1694 1992 299 1.000 0.163 -0.406 2.954 0.158 0.285 24 963282 1704 1964 261 1.000 0.147 -0.149 3.677 0.135 0.345 25 963291 1732 1992 261 1.000 0.145 -0.308 2.920 0.156 0.114 26 963292 1745 1992 248 1.000 0.143 -0.502 2.882 0.148 0.201 27 963301 1760 1992 233 1.000 0.123 -0.291 3.058 0.127 0.181 28 963302 1755 1992 238 1.000 0.135 -0.531 3.086 0.134 0.207 29 963311 1733 1973 241 1.000 0.142 -0.278 2.790 0.123 0.434 30 963312 1740 1975 236 1.000 0.133 -0.411 3.025 0.132 0.236 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 262 1.000 0.119 -0.446 3.330 0.112 0.304 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.000 0.021 0.255 0.488 0.023 0.128 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 260 1.000 0.122 -0.408 3.186 0.108 0.284 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.000 0.032 0.301 0.744 0.038 0.203 MINIMUM VALUE 215 0.998 0.077 -1.105 2.476 0.074 0.087 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.103 -0.561 2.933 0.094 0.206 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 282 1.000 0.135 -0.260 3.677 0.132 0.410 MAXIMUM VALUE 315 1.000 0.163 -0.034 4.547 0.158 0.533 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.473 0.112 0.005 0.042 3.516 0.117 0.879 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.117 SERIES 963172 AND 963182 242 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.879 SERIES 963291 AND 963292 248 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.01 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 21. 78. 351. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 351. RBAR 0.321 0.391 0.551 0.535 0.486 0.517 0.526 0.550 0.473 0.412 SDEV 0.202 0.211 0.154 0.170 0.169 0.181 0.167 0.167 0.182 0.186 SERR 0.044 0.024 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.879 0.940 0.973 0.972 0.966 0.970 0.971 0.973 0.964 0.954 NSS 15.3 24.4 29.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.5 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1678 1992 315 1.000 0.083 -0.566 3.386 0.087 0.157 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.182 -0.063 0.144 84 231 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.27 1.00 1.04 1.31 4.17 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.157 0.124 0.170 0.109 0.017 0.002 0.091 -0.020 -0.084 -0.047 PACF 0.157 0.102 0.142 0.058 -0.037 -0.037 0.077 -0.042 -0.089 -0.044 95% C.L. 0.113 0.115 0.117 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.123 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.059 0.126 0.083 0.145 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.176 0.135 0.201 0.094 0.029 0.014 0.109 -0.040 -0.105 -0.061 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.176 2 0.157 0.108 3 0.139 0.081 0.168 4 0.134 0.079 0.164 0.028 5 0.135 0.084 0.167 0.031 -0.028 6 0.134 0.085 0.172 0.034 -0.024 -0.034 7 0.137 0.087 0.169 0.017 -0.032 -0.047 0.098 8 0.144 0.084 0.167 0.018 -0.020 -0.040 0.108 -0.073 9 0.136 0.096 0.162 0.016 -0.018 -0.021 0.118 -0.057 -0.113 10 0.129 0.093 0.169 0.015 -0.019 -0.020 0.127 -0.051 -0.105 -0.060 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2323.90 2316.02 2314.33 2307.28 2309.05 2310.80 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2312.44 2311.39 2311.70 2309.66 2310.53 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.139 0.081 0.168 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.93 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 107.44 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.139 0.101 0.194 0.058 0.041 0.043 0.019 0.013 0.011 0.0057 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 963051 3 0.110 0.191 0.129 0.147 2 963052 3 0.128 0.165 0.238 0.079 3 963061 3 0.232 0.328 0.101 0.180 4 963062 3 0.354 0.357 0.163 0.196 5 963071 3 0.080 0.147 0.076 0.173 6 963072 3 0.133 0.241 0.031 0.219 7 963171 3 0.276 0.333 0.196 0.115 8 963172 3 0.198 0.302 0.182 0.069 9 963181 3 0.289 0.328 0.233 0.090 10 963182 3 0.102 0.196 0.164 0.034 11 963191 3 0.021 0.073 0.103 0.048 12 963192 3 0.169 0.278 0.132 0.127 13 963201 3 0.308 0.439 0.156 0.030 14 963202 3 0.224 0.335 0.185 0.037 15 963231 3 0.021 0.126 0.020 0.057 16 963232 3 0.026 0.101 0.012 0.109 17 963241 3 0.192 0.245 0.135 0.197 18 963242 3 0.243 0.272 0.182 0.174 19 963251 3 0.189 0.245 0.163 0.170 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 963252 3 0.190 0.294 0.215 0.021 21 963261 3 0.047 0.203 0.013 0.046 22 963262 3 0.074 0.235 0.019 0.103 23 963281 3 0.125 0.216 0.148 0.112 24 963282 3 0.124 0.328 0.028 0.045 25 963291 3 0.045 0.123 -0.054 0.177 26 963292 3 0.094 0.190 -0.017 0.224 27 963301 3 0.100 0.125 0.101 0.227 28 963302 3 0.094 0.154 0.100 0.189 29 963311 3 0.227 0.355 0.072 0.163 30 963312 3 0.089 0.189 0.119 0.104 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.150 0.237 0.112 0.122 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.090 0.090 0.077 0.066 MEDIAN 3 0.127 0.238 0.124 0.114 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.135 0.163 0.133 0.120 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.021 0.073 -0.054 0.021 LOWER HINGE 3 0.089 0.165 0.031 0.057 UPPER HINGE 3 0.224 0.328 0.164 0.177 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.354 0.439 0.238 0.227 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 963051 1678 1992 315 1.000 0.101 -0.668 4.092 0.115 -0.005 2 963052 1682 1992 311 1.000 0.100 -0.372 2.968 0.115 -0.004 3 963061 1714 1992 279 1.000 0.108 -0.474 3.158 0.125 0.001 4 963062 1711 1992 282 1.000 0.114 -0.373 3.404 0.126 -0.002 5 963071 1705 1992 288 1.000 0.083 -0.558 4.452 0.091 -0.015 6 963072 1703 1992 290 1.000 0.072 -0.614 3.235 0.082 -0.004 7 963171 1699 1992 294 1.000 0.116 -0.257 3.118 0.135 -0.002 8 963172 1711 1992 282 1.000 0.113 -0.385 3.727 0.130 0.003 9 963181 1746 1992 247 1.000 0.082 -0.236 3.713 0.093 0.000 10 963182 1751 1992 242 1.000 0.085 -0.463 3.066 0.097 -0.004 11 963191 1727 1992 266 1.000 0.107 -0.253 3.622 0.119 -0.001 12 963192 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.111 -0.334 3.289 0.124 -0.001 13 963201 1750 1992 243 1.000 0.089 -0.097 3.713 0.099 0.001 14 963202 1750 1992 243 1.000 0.080 -0.583 4.043 0.089 -0.004 15 963231 1726 1992 267 1.000 0.123 -0.290 3.110 0.140 0.000 16 963232 1716 1992 277 1.000 0.122 -0.608 3.947 0.141 -0.005 17 963241 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.109 -0.287 3.741 0.126 -0.015 18 963242 1746 1992 247 1.000 0.108 -0.059 2.672 0.123 -0.013 19 963251 1731 1992 262 1.000 0.093 -1.086 5.170 0.104 -0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 963252 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.093 -0.929 4.436 0.104 0.001 21 963261 1772 1992 221 1.000 0.105 -0.839 3.946 0.117 0.000 22 963262 1778 1992 215 1.000 0.098 -0.931 4.020 0.114 0.000 23 963281 1694 1992 299 1.000 0.153 -0.482 3.199 0.175 -0.008 24 963282 1704 1964 261 1.000 0.138 0.000 3.297 0.157 0.002 25 963291 1732 1992 261 1.000 0.141 -0.283 2.926 0.160 0.004 26 963292 1745 1992 248 1.000 0.136 -0.440 2.925 0.158 0.015 27 963301 1760 1992 233 1.000 0.117 -0.131 3.260 0.132 -0.005 28 963302 1755 1992 238 1.000 0.129 -0.418 3.288 0.140 -0.002 29 963311 1733 1973 241 1.000 0.125 -0.115 2.893 0.141 -0.009 30 963312 1740 1975 236 1.000 0.127 -0.173 2.833 0.144 -0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 262 1.000 0.109 -0.425 3.509 0.124 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.000 0.020 0.271 0.572 0.023 0.006 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 260 1.000 0.108 -0.379 3.293 0.124 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.000 0.030 0.330 0.836 0.036 0.005 MINIMUM VALUE 215 1.000 0.072 -1.086 2.672 0.082 -0.015 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.093 -0.583 3.110 0.104 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 282 1.000 0.123 -0.253 3.946 0.140 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 315 1.000 0.153 0.000 5.170 0.175 0.015 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.523 0.098 0.005 0.122 3.695 0.272 0.889 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.272 SERIES 963261 AND 963311 202 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.889 SERIES 963291 AND 963292 248 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.01 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 21. 78. 351. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 351. RBAR 0.407 0.454 0.589 0.555 0.485 0.541 0.584 0.612 0.520 0.456 SDEV 0.193 0.173 0.120 0.126 0.146 0.136 0.139 0.154 0.161 0.149 SERR 0.042 0.020 0.006 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.913 0.953 0.977 0.974 0.966 0.973 0.977 0.979 0.970 0.961 NSS 15.3 24.4 29.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.5 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1678 1992 315 1.000 0.080 -0.672 3.790 0.095 -0.096 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.145 -0.047 0.117 87 228 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.24 1.01 1.06 1.31 2.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.89 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.095 -0.056 -0.008 0.036 -0.035 -0.048 0.106 -0.020 -0.085 -0.023 PACF -0.095 -0.066 -0.020 0.030 -0.031 -0.051 0.094 -0.008 -0.077 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.117 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.014 -0.096 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.025 -0.032 -0.042 0.093 -0.024 -0.086 -0.032 PACF 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.025 -0.032 -0.042 0.093 -0.025 -0.086 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.115 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1678 1992 315 1.000 0.082 -0.553 3.335 0.085 0.182 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.181 0.134 0.194 0.093 0.012 -0.007 0.081 -0.034 -0.085 -0.046 PACF 0.181 0.105 0.160 0.027 -0.045 -0.047 0.077 -0.051 -0.081 -0.040 95% C.L. 0.113 0.116 0.118 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.125 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.070 0.145 0.080 0.163 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.40 MINUTES