RUN: RUSS003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS096N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS096N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 963 1 Murmashi DENSITY_MINIMUM PCAB - 963 2 Russia Norway spruce 140 6846-3248 1678 1992 - 963 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 963052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1874 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 963061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1874 1874 / 1879 1879 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 963062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1874 1874 / 1879 1879 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 963072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 63 IN 2 GAPS / 1897 1958 / 1962 1962 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 963171 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1874 1874 / 1882 1882 / 1910 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 963172 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1874 1874 / 1882 1882 / 1887 1887 / 1943 1943 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 963181 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 963191 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1982 1982 / 1990 1990 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 963192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1874 1874 / 1975 1975 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 963201 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 6 GAPS / 1793 1798 / 1871 1871 / 1879 1879 / 1902 1902 / / 1923 1923 / 1982 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 963202 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1871 1871 / 1882 1882 / 1982 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 963231 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1975 1975 / 1982 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 963232 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1975 1975 / 1982 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 963241 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1796 1796 / 1982 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 963242 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1796 1796 / 1982 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 963281 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 4 GAPS / 1727 1733 / 1796 1797 / 1851 1855 / 1969 1969 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 963282 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 4 GAPS / 1745 1748 / 1796 1797 / 1910 1910 / 1912 1912 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 963291 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1795 1795 / 1797 1797 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 963292 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1795 1795 / 1797 1797 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 963301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 6 GAPS / 1795 1796 / 1871 1871 / 1874 1874 / 1879 1879 / / 1908 1912 / 1934 1934 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 963302 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 4 GAPS / 1795 1796 / 1871 1871 / 1874 1874 / 1910 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 963311 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 6 GAPS / 1795 1795 / 1871 1871 / 1874 1874 / 1879 1879 / / 1910 1910 / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 963312 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 6 GAPS / 1796 1797 / 1874 1874 / 1879 1879 / 1912 1912 / / 1914 1914 / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 963051 1678 1992 315 0.286 0.038 0.952 5.965 0.091 0.457 2 963052 1682 1992 311 0.306 0.051 2.636 15.462 0.128 0.161 3 963061 1714 1992 279 0.335 0.041 1.824 9.156 0.086 0.501 4 963062 1711 1992 282 0.336 0.047 1.610 7.564 0.091 0.581 5 963071 1705 1992 288 0.321 0.043 1.016 7.924 0.086 0.537 6 963072 1703 1992 290 0.370 0.059 0.889 3.866 0.121 0.466 7 963171 1699 1992 294 0.288 0.040 2.512 14.784 0.106 0.212 8 963172 1711 1992 282 0.276 0.042 1.682 8.221 0.102 0.392 9 963181 1746 1992 247 0.312 0.053 2.184 9.157 0.117 0.369 10 963182 1751 1992 242 0.310 0.048 2.227 10.191 0.108 0.309 11 963191 1727 1992 266 0.289 0.033 1.332 7.413 0.103 0.093 12 963192 1734 1992 259 0.303 0.042 2.106 12.639 0.121 0.120 13 963201 1750 1992 243 0.351 0.056 2.047 10.605 0.117 0.293 14 963202 1750 1992 243 0.333 0.051 2.541 12.242 0.118 0.186 15 963231 1726 1992 267 0.317 0.053 2.284 13.840 0.121 0.295 16 963232 1716 1992 277 0.319 0.043 1.367 6.355 0.107 0.337 17 963241 1734 1992 259 0.279 0.036 1.035 6.006 0.101 0.423 18 963242 1746 1992 247 0.304 0.034 0.892 4.575 0.083 0.516 19 963251 1731 1992 262 0.340 0.036 2.046 15.147 0.083 0.222 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 963252 1734 1992 259 0.340 0.035 0.475 5.814 0.079 0.376 21 963261 1772 1992 221 0.335 0.047 1.665 6.166 0.067 0.737 22 963262 1778 1992 215 0.336 0.034 0.320 2.854 0.067 0.615 23 963281 1694 1992 299 0.275 0.035 0.626 3.495 0.088 0.482 24 963282 1704 1964 261 0.282 0.046 1.754 10.323 0.090 0.688 25 963291 1732 1992 261 0.322 0.035 1.550 9.560 0.085 0.305 26 963292 1745 1992 248 0.332 0.035 2.353 14.883 0.079 0.342 27 963301 1760 1992 233 0.324 0.045 1.508 7.754 0.085 0.610 28 963302 1755 1992 238 0.292 0.037 1.068 5.322 0.090 0.572 29 963311 1733 1973 241 0.344 0.047 0.489 3.110 0.089 0.619 30 963312 1740 1975 236 0.331 0.038 0.345 3.171 0.095 0.411 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1678 TO 1992 315 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 257 0.316 0.043 1.511 8.452 0.097 0.407 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.025 0.007 0.701 3.892 0.017 0.171 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 257 0.320 0.042 1.580 7.839 0.091 0.401 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.043 0.012 1.154 4.791 0.023 0.242 MINIMUM VALUE 215 0.275 0.033 0.320 2.854 0.067 0.093 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 235 0.292 0.036 0.952 5.814 0.085 0.295 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 277 0.335 0.047 2.106 10.605 0.108 0.537 MAXIMUM VALUE 315 0.370 0.059 2.636 15.462 0.128 0.737 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.339 0.160 0.008 -0.534 4.502 -0.385 0.827 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.385 SERIES 963261 AND 963311 202 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.827 SERIES 963061 AND 963062 279 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.01 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 21. 78. 351. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 351. RBAR 0.150 0.420 0.349 0.424 0.424 0.402 0.353 0.390 0.374 0.428 SDEV 0.219 0.187 0.220 0.173 0.181 0.175 0.181 0.187 0.210 0.178 SERR 0.048 0.021 0.012 0.008 0.009 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.729 0.946 0.940 0.957 0.957 0.953 0.942 0.950 0.947 0.957 NSS 15.3 24.4 29.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.5 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1678 1992 315 0.316 0.026 0.970 6.078 0.071 0.269 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.423 0.264 -0.043 114 201 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.72 1.00 1.08 1.80 77.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 260. 39. 215. 243. 282. 315. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.268 0.278 0.253 0.215 0.203 0.121 0.171 0.136 0.013 -0.030 PACF 0.268 0.222 0.154 0.089 0.073 -0.021 0.065 0.028 -0.111 -0.116 95% C.L. 0.113 0.120 0.128 0.135 0.139 0.143 0.144 0.146 0.148 0.148 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.158 0.150 0.166 0.128 0.081 0.084 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 963051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021174 0.31983623 2 963052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003980 0.31283316 3 963061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013192 0.35382381 4 963062 1 0.26838630 0.11691649 0.00000000 0.32866925 5 963071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00033974 0.37016937 6 963072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008597 0.36253175 7 963171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001877 0.28635600 8 963172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006170 0.26855692 9 963181 1 0.19755036 0.11986870 0.00000000 0.30590096 10 963182 1 0.01453298 0.01204501 0.00000000 0.30489963 11 963191 1 0.02152125 0.12927589 0.00000000 0.28890941 12 963192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006071 0.29535645 13 963201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014116 0.36898217 14 963202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001227 0.33333266 15 963231 1 0.21161592 0.11013808 0.00000000 0.31093618 16 963232 1 0.19901891 0.11362697 0.00000000 0.31369627 17 963241 1 0.07420844 0.00694750 0.00000000 0.24457441 18 963242 1 0.05473898 0.01201789 0.00000000 0.28744534 19 963251 1 0.04387857 0.00483941 0.00000000 0.31473434 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 963252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019605 0.36587322 21 963261 1 0.18501186 0.03970396 0.00000000 0.31449237 22 963262 1 0.10932562 0.00681646 0.00000000 0.27859837 23 963281 1 0.07276032 0.00890935 0.00000000 0.25085327 24 963282 1 0.09252504 0.02172749 0.00000000 0.26721042 25 963291 1 0.12928581 0.14022222 0.00000000 0.31852081 26 963292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001068 0.33392176 27 963301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018441 0.30485281 28 963302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000690 0.29236960 29 963311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00034045 0.30408069 30 963312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001045 0.33026803 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 963051 1678 1992 315 1.000 0.118 2.309 17.093 0.091 0.263 2 963052 1682 1992 311 1.000 0.170 2.639 15.331 0.130 0.142 3 963061 1714 1992 279 1.000 0.116 1.641 8.205 0.086 0.446 4 963062 1711 1992 282 1.000 0.110 0.798 4.054 0.091 0.358 5 963071 1705 1992 288 1.000 0.099 1.140 7.262 0.086 0.239 6 963072 1703 1992 290 1.000 0.152 0.905 4.073 0.122 0.405 7 963171 1699 1992 294 1.000 0.141 2.305 13.102 0.109 0.190 8 963172 1711 1992 282 1.000 0.150 1.451 7.054 0.105 0.360 9 963181 1746 1992 247 1.000 0.154 2.656 13.134 0.117 0.227 10 963182 1751 1992 242 1.000 0.154 2.297 10.586 0.108 0.302 11 963191 1727 1992 266 1.000 0.115 1.350 7.288 0.106 0.077 12 963192 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.138 1.818 10.904 0.123 0.087 13 963201 1750 1992 243 1.000 0.155 2.040 10.286 0.118 0.286 14 963202 1750 1992 243 1.000 0.157 2.406 11.187 0.121 0.180 15 963231 1726 1992 267 1.000 0.151 2.731 19.846 0.126 0.073 16 963232 1716 1992 277 1.000 0.118 1.234 6.252 0.109 0.114 17 963241 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.113 0.903 4.203 0.104 0.211 18 963242 1746 1992 247 1.000 0.102 0.753 4.843 0.084 0.387 19 963251 1731 1992 262 1.000 0.103 2.694 21.216 0.083 0.165 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 963252 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.096 1.554 11.656 0.079 0.247 21 963261 1772 1992 221 1.000 0.079 0.438 3.992 0.066 0.314 22 963262 1778 1992 215 1.000 0.075 0.682 3.786 0.066 0.301 23 963281 1694 1992 299 1.000 0.110 1.058 6.117 0.087 0.320 24 963282 1704 1964 261 1.000 0.145 2.904 20.993 0.089 0.592 25 963291 1732 1992 261 1.000 0.100 1.751 12.630 0.085 0.192 26 963292 1745 1992 248 1.000 0.106 2.367 15.082 0.079 0.334 27 963301 1760 1992 233 1.000 0.134 1.202 6.722 0.088 0.568 28 963302 1755 1992 238 1.000 0.128 1.068 5.129 0.093 0.529 29 963311 1733 1973 241 1.000 0.122 0.636 2.998 0.093 0.495 30 963312 1740 1975 236 1.000 0.118 0.489 3.553 0.095 0.412 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 262 1.000 0.124 1.607 9.619 0.098 0.294 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.000 0.025 0.770 5.452 0.017 0.143 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 260 1.000 0.118 1.503 7.746 0.093 0.293 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.000 0.044 1.404 8.259 0.023 0.197 MINIMUM VALUE 215 1.000 0.075 0.438 2.998 0.066 0.073 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.106 0.905 4.843 0.086 0.190 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 282 1.000 0.150 2.309 13.102 0.109 0.387 MAXIMUM VALUE 315 1.000 0.170 2.904 21.216 0.130 0.592 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 963051 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 963052 -67 208 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 963061 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 963062 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 963071 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 963072 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 963171 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 963172 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 963181 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 963182 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 963191 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 963192 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 963201 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 963202 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 963231 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 963232 -67 185 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 963241 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 963242 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 963251 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 963252 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 963261 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 963262 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 963281 -67 200 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 963282 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 963291 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 963292 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 963301 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 963302 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 963311 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 963312 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 963051 1678 1992 315 1.000 0.111 2.638 21.307 0.091 0.180 2 963052 1682 1992 311 0.999 0.161 3.130 20.046 0.130 0.051 3 963061 1714 1992 279 1.000 0.107 1.228 6.563 0.086 0.381 4 963062 1711 1992 282 1.000 0.105 1.085 5.625 0.091 0.287 5 963071 1705 1992 288 1.000 0.096 1.244 7.953 0.086 0.196 6 963072 1703 1992 290 0.999 0.132 0.940 4.249 0.122 0.231 7 963171 1699 1992 294 1.000 0.138 2.618 15.840 0.109 0.143 8 963172 1711 1992 282 0.999 0.136 1.869 10.627 0.105 0.218 9 963181 1746 1992 247 1.000 0.148 2.795 14.025 0.118 0.166 10 963182 1751 1992 242 1.000 0.152 2.222 10.179 0.108 0.294 11 963191 1727 1992 266 1.000 0.115 1.412 7.633 0.106 0.067 12 963192 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.137 2.056 12.834 0.123 0.057 13 963201 1750 1992 243 0.999 0.139 2.176 11.038 0.118 0.136 14 963202 1750 1992 243 0.999 0.144 2.494 11.423 0.121 0.059 15 963231 1726 1992 267 1.000 0.147 3.035 22.833 0.126 0.012 16 963232 1716 1992 277 1.000 0.114 1.122 5.598 0.109 0.061 17 963241 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.112 0.945 4.318 0.104 0.194 18 963242 1746 1992 247 1.000 0.099 0.813 5.234 0.084 0.343 19 963251 1731 1992 262 1.000 0.102 2.887 23.336 0.083 0.150 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 963252 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.094 1.982 15.609 0.078 0.200 21 963261 1772 1992 221 1.000 0.075 0.518 4.190 0.066 0.250 22 963262 1778 1992 215 1.000 0.073 0.644 3.953 0.066 0.263 23 963281 1694 1992 299 1.000 0.109 1.135 6.455 0.087 0.307 24 963282 1704 1964 261 0.999 0.128 2.925 22.489 0.089 0.498 25 963291 1732 1992 261 1.000 0.098 1.681 11.906 0.085 0.175 26 963292 1745 1992 248 1.000 0.105 2.483 16.559 0.079 0.314 27 963301 1760 1992 233 0.999 0.107 1.238 7.471 0.088 0.362 28 963302 1755 1992 238 1.000 0.111 0.854 5.316 0.094 0.385 29 963311 1733 1973 241 0.999 0.101 0.378 2.933 0.093 0.282 30 963312 1740 1975 236 0.999 0.105 0.653 3.781 0.095 0.250 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 262 1.000 0.117 1.707 10.711 0.098 0.217 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.000 0.022 0.859 6.433 0.017 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 260 1.000 0.111 1.546 9.066 0.093 0.209 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.001 0.035 1.550 10.293 0.023 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 215 0.999 0.073 0.378 2.933 0.066 0.012 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 243 0.999 0.102 0.945 5.316 0.086 0.143 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 282 1.000 0.137 2.494 15.609 0.109 0.294 MAXIMUM VALUE 315 1.000 0.161 3.130 23.336 0.130 0.498 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.394 0.105 0.005 0.408 3.542 0.123 0.770 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.123 SERIES 963181 AND 963282 219 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.770 SERIES 963251 AND 963252 259 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.01 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 21. 78. 351. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 351. RBAR 0.183 0.402 0.391 0.442 0.434 0.415 0.369 0.409 0.362 0.413 SDEV 0.235 0.184 0.189 0.149 0.170 0.162 0.174 0.166 0.206 0.175 SERR 0.051 0.021 0.010 0.007 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.774 0.942 0.949 0.960 0.958 0.955 0.946 0.954 0.945 0.954 NSS 15.3 24.4 29.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.5 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1678 1992 315 0.998 0.077 1.876 12.476 0.071 0.117 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.492 0.206 -0.128 134 181 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.98 1.00 1.09 2.07 13.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.00 0.89 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.116 0.128 0.112 0.092 0.104 0.046 0.154 0.096 -0.012 -0.074 PACF 0.116 0.116 0.088 0.060 0.070 0.006 0.123 0.051 -0.069 -0.121 95% C.L. 0.113 0.114 0.116 0.117 0.118 0.119 0.120 0.122 0.123 0.123 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.039 0.093 0.109 0.089 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.011 0.047 0.031 0.044 0.026 0.010 0.174 0.144 -0.036 -0.066 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.011 2 -0.011 0.047 3 -0.012 0.047 0.032 4 -0.013 0.045 0.032 0.042 5 -0.014 0.044 0.031 0.043 0.024 6 -0.015 0.044 0.031 0.042 0.024 0.006 7 -0.016 0.040 0.024 0.037 0.016 0.008 0.170 8 -0.041 0.039 0.021 0.032 0.013 0.002 0.173 0.150 9 -0.034 0.047 0.021 0.032 0.014 0.003 0.174 0.148 -0.048 10 -0.039 0.061 0.038 0.032 0.016 0.006 0.177 0.153 -0.051 -0.097 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2253.63 2255.59 2256.91 2258.59 2260.03 2261.85 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2263.84 2256.57 2251.37 2252.64 2251.68 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 8 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.041 0.039 0.021 0.032 0.013 0.002 0.173 0.150 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.63 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.97 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 8) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.041 0.040 0.018 0.031 0.012 0.004 0.175 0.138 0.003 0.0184 0.016 0.014 0.005 0.032 0.050 0.021 0.006 0.008 0.007 0.0045 0.007 0.014 0.011 0.005 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.004 0.0042 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 963051 8 0.093 0.132 0.094 0.103 0.077 0.044 -0.051 0.129 -0.021 2 963052 8 0.070 0.007 0.034 0.111 0.069 0.039 -0.015 0.151 0.101 3 963061 8 0.254 0.262 0.201 0.095 0.122 0.038 -0.158 0.085 -0.018 4 963062 8 0.195 0.173 0.242 0.119 0.059 -0.028 -0.031 0.022 -0.020 5 963071 8 0.076 0.184 0.102 -0.027 0.099 -0.014 0.064 0.040 -0.026 6 963072 8 0.134 0.165 0.103 0.015 0.145 0.021 0.125 0.003 0.000 7 963171 8 0.094 0.103 0.109 0.083 0.034 0.036 -0.032 -0.012 0.193 8 963172 8 0.186 0.063 0.099 0.141 0.046 0.092 0.043 0.158 0.082 9 963181 8 0.159 0.090 0.078 0.322 0.031 0.063 -0.096 0.037 0.033 10 963182 8 0.171 0.249 0.084 0.106 -0.027 -0.015 -0.081 0.149 0.097 11 963191 8 0.096 0.023 0.157 0.002 -0.026 0.014 0.042 0.160 0.109 12 963192 8 0.065 0.031 0.032 0.007 0.021 0.025 -0.048 0.139 0.191 13 963201 8 0.130 0.046 0.184 0.037 0.104 0.012 0.030 0.103 0.119 14 963202 8 0.062 0.035 0.027 0.077 0.071 0.009 -0.059 0.150 0.114 15 963231 8 0.059 0.042 0.093 -0.155 0.069 -0.076 0.054 0.078 0.011 16 963232 8 0.049 0.045 0.061 0.007 0.090 0.010 -0.062 0.079 0.143 17 963241 8 0.088 0.146 0.143 0.036 0.033 -0.034 0.052 0.064 0.079 18 963242 8 0.160 0.281 0.146 -0.020 0.026 0.020 0.101 -0.026 0.054 19 963251 8 0.079 0.104 0.082 0.129 0.063 0.020 -0.056 0.070 0.070 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 963252 8 0.076 0.164 0.052 0.088 0.028 0.038 -0.031 0.078 0.073 21 963261 8 0.118 0.232 -0.012 0.133 0.023 0.145 -0.054 0.113 -0.105 22 963262 8 0.146 0.188 0.087 0.103 0.113 0.018 0.032 0.135 -0.096 23 963281 8 0.177 0.239 0.121 0.000 0.017 0.127 -0.012 0.190 -0.054 24 963282 8 0.342 0.348 0.359 -0.061 -0.018 0.049 0.051 -0.085 -0.016 25 963291 8 0.132 0.095 0.164 0.095 0.078 0.002 -0.064 0.149 0.073 26 963292 8 0.216 0.184 0.082 0.151 0.090 0.078 0.024 0.070 0.002 27 963301 8 0.239 0.210 0.162 0.092 0.030 0.162 -0.019 0.041 0.038 28 963302 8 0.249 0.286 0.161 0.083 0.113 0.039 -0.094 0.142 -0.154 29 963311 8 0.194 0.195 0.282 -0.049 0.044 0.131 -0.082 -0.008 0.103 30 963312 8 0.169 0.130 0.184 0.150 0.037 0.064 0.073 -0.049 0.046 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 8 0.143 0.148 0.124 0.066 0.055 0.038 -0.012 0.078 0.041 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.071 0.091 0.079 0.087 0.043 0.053 0.066 0.071 0.083 MEDIAN 8 0.133 0.155 0.103 0.086 0.053 0.030 -0.025 0.079 0.050 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.107 0.147 0.080 0.104 0.062 0.054 0.102 0.106 0.118 MINIMUM VALUE 8 0.049 0.007 -0.012 -0.155 -0.027 -0.076 -0.158 -0.085 -0.154 LOWER HINGE 8 0.079 0.063 0.082 0.007 0.028 0.010 -0.059 0.037 -0.018 UPPER HINGE 8 0.186 0.210 0.162 0.111 0.090 0.063 0.043 0.142 0.101 MAXIMUM VALUE 8 0.342 0.348 0.359 0.322 0.145 0.162 0.125 0.190 0.193 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 963051 1678 1992 315 1.000 0.106 2.759 22.944 0.097 -0.002 2 963052 1682 1992 311 1.000 0.155 3.083 19.646 0.131 -0.005 3 963061 1714 1992 279 1.000 0.092 1.237 8.535 0.097 -0.016 4 963062 1711 1992 282 1.000 0.096 0.960 6.451 0.100 -0.004 5 963071 1705 1992 288 1.000 0.093 1.231 7.873 0.094 -0.014 6 963072 1703 1992 290 1.000 0.123 0.900 4.293 0.132 -0.002 7 963171 1699 1992 294 1.000 0.132 2.238 13.027 0.115 0.012 8 963172 1711 1992 282 1.000 0.123 2.467 15.418 0.109 0.004 9 963181 1746 1992 247 1.000 0.136 2.415 13.494 0.125 0.002 10 963182 1751 1992 242 1.000 0.141 1.916 9.782 0.125 0.008 11 963191 1727 1992 266 1.000 0.110 1.369 7.605 0.108 0.016 12 963192 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.132 1.974 12.619 0.127 0.004 13 963201 1750 1992 243 1.000 0.129 1.969 10.735 0.121 -0.002 14 963202 1750 1992 243 1.000 0.139 2.234 10.249 0.124 0.002 15 963231 1726 1992 267 1.000 0.143 2.640 18.996 0.129 0.001 16 963232 1716 1992 277 1.000 0.111 1.073 5.562 0.114 0.004 17 963241 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.106 0.855 4.149 0.111 -0.005 18 963242 1746 1992 247 1.000 0.090 0.975 5.708 0.095 0.000 19 963251 1731 1992 262 1.000 0.098 3.493 30.928 0.085 0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 963252 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.090 2.524 21.050 0.085 0.002 21 963261 1772 1992 221 1.000 0.071 0.602 4.497 0.075 0.004 22 963262 1778 1992 215 1.000 0.067 0.864 5.132 0.072 0.000 23 963281 1694 1992 299 1.000 0.099 1.218 7.929 0.098 -0.001 24 963282 1704 1964 261 1.000 0.104 1.916 13.185 0.106 0.000 25 963291 1732 1992 261 1.000 0.092 1.777 12.828 0.090 0.008 26 963292 1745 1992 248 1.000 0.094 2.544 17.014 0.088 0.004 27 963301 1760 1992 233 1.000 0.094 1.040 6.139 0.099 0.003 28 963302 1755 1992 238 1.000 0.096 1.077 6.177 0.104 -0.012 29 963311 1733 1973 241 1.000 0.091 0.460 3.846 0.101 -0.017 30 963312 1740 1975 236 1.000 0.095 0.673 3.865 0.102 -0.009 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 262 1.000 0.108 1.683 10.989 0.105 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.000 0.022 0.817 6.672 0.016 0.008 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 260 1.000 0.101 1.573 9.159 0.103 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.000 0.036 1.440 7.786 0.026 0.007 MINIMUM VALUE 215 1.000 0.067 0.460 3.846 0.072 -0.017 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.093 0.975 5.708 0.095 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 282 1.000 0.129 2.415 13.494 0.121 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 315 1.000 0.155 3.493 30.928 0.132 0.016 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.431 0.094 0.005 0.475 3.315 0.226 0.756 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.226 SERIES 963202 AND 963261 221 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.756 SERIES 963061 AND 963062 279 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.01 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 21. 78. 351. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 351. RBAR 0.215 0.413 0.415 0.461 0.426 0.417 0.408 0.444 0.409 0.452 SDEV 0.191 0.162 0.159 0.132 0.165 0.153 0.153 0.126 0.153 0.153 SERR 0.042 0.018 0.008 0.006 0.008 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.807 0.945 0.954 0.963 0.957 0.955 0.954 0.960 0.954 0.961 NSS 15.3 24.4 29.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.5 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1678 1992 315 0.997 0.073 1.937 12.966 0.075 -0.049 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.488 0.220 -0.149 143 172 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.90 1.00 1.09 1.99 17.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.09 0.00 0.89 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.049 -0.019 -0.001 -0.016 0.019 -0.004 0.050 0.009 -0.051 -0.110 PACF -0.049 -0.022 -0.003 -0.017 0.017 -0.003 0.051 0.013 -0.048 -0.116 95% C.L. 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.005 0.006 0.001 0.003 0.001 -0.006 -0.012 -0.058 -0.114 PACF 0.001 0.005 0.006 0.001 0.003 0.001 -0.006 -0.012 -0.058 -0.114 95% C.L. 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 8 0.004 0.001 0.005 0.006 0.001 0.003 0.001 -0.006 -0.013 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1678 1992 315 0.998 0.075 2.030 13.306 0.075 -0.008 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.008 0.031 0.022 0.047 0.022 0.006 0.173 0.136 -0.044 -0.090 PACF -0.008 0.031 0.022 0.046 0.022 0.003 0.170 0.141 -0.052 -0.113 95% C.L. 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.116 0.118 0.119 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.47 MINUTES