RUN: RUSS003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS096E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS096E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 963 1 Murmashi WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 963 2 Russia Norway spruce 140 6846-3248 1678 1992 - 963 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 963072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 62 IN 1 GAPS / 1897 1958 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 963281 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1727 1733 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 963282 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1745 1748 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 963301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 2 GAPS / 1795 1796 / 1908 1912 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 963302 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1795 1796 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 963312 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1796 1797 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 963051 1678 1992 315 0.291 0.154 0.517 2.676 0.314 0.765 2 963052 1682 1992 311 0.213 0.183 1.554 4.902 0.397 0.878 3 963061 1714 1992 279 0.271 0.162 1.040 3.709 0.351 0.785 4 963062 1711 1992 282 0.271 0.157 0.807 3.253 0.372 0.767 5 963071 1705 1992 288 0.321 0.198 1.787 6.845 0.271 0.840 6 963072 1703 1992 290 0.204 0.140 0.832 3.154 0.365 0.768 7 963171 1699 1992 294 0.264 0.225 2.740 11.967 0.385 0.804 8 963172 1711 1992 282 0.255 0.180 1.495 5.598 0.373 0.742 9 963181 1746 1992 247 0.465 0.282 1.057 4.166 0.432 0.692 10 963182 1751 1992 242 0.520 0.294 1.466 6.237 0.398 0.690 11 963191 1727 1992 266 0.446 0.296 1.014 3.315 0.424 0.799 12 963192 1734 1992 259 0.367 0.268 1.313 4.581 0.469 0.803 13 963201 1750 1992 243 0.312 0.188 0.960 3.871 0.439 0.707 14 963202 1750 1992 243 0.318 0.173 0.643 3.271 0.403 0.674 15 963231 1726 1992 267 0.317 0.181 0.592 3.034 0.407 0.695 16 963232 1716 1992 277 0.316 0.187 0.952 3.830 0.410 0.676 17 963241 1734 1992 259 0.307 0.144 0.851 3.671 0.342 0.661 18 963242 1746 1992 247 0.323 0.157 0.720 3.327 0.340 0.711 19 963251 1731 1992 262 0.213 0.087 0.645 3.581 0.314 0.604 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 963252 1734 1992 259 0.216 0.094 0.802 3.604 0.301 0.669 21 963261 1772 1992 221 0.410 0.293 1.222 3.920 0.306 0.837 22 963262 1778 1992 215 0.397 0.272 1.296 4.235 0.311 0.824 23 963281 1694 1992 299 0.339 0.236 1.656 6.547 0.380 0.788 24 963282 1704 1964 261 0.334 0.243 1.947 8.447 0.354 0.803 25 963291 1732 1992 261 0.414 0.280 1.372 4.669 0.344 0.848 26 963292 1745 1992 248 0.391 0.257 1.266 4.183 0.352 0.829 27 963301 1760 1992 233 0.205 0.150 1.575 5.432 0.392 0.863 28 963302 1755 1992 238 0.244 0.167 1.722 6.251 0.322 0.855 29 963311 1733 1973 241 0.316 0.266 1.136 3.479 0.436 0.830 30 963312 1740 1975 236 0.229 0.182 1.939 7.752 0.474 0.774 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1678 TO 1992 315 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 0.316 0.203 1.231 4.784 0.373 0.766 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.082 0.060 0.499 2.001 0.052 0.072 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 259 0.316 0.185 1.179 4.043 0.373 0.779 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 37 0.112 0.109 0.722 2.119 0.067 0.134 MINIMUM VALUE 215 0.204 0.087 0.517 2.676 0.271 0.604 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 242 0.255 0.157 0.832 3.479 0.340 0.695 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 279 0.367 0.266 1.554 5.598 0.407 0.829 MAXIMUM VALUE 315 0.520 0.296 2.740 11.967 0.474 0.878 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.394 0.227 0.011 -0.403 3.226 -0.342 0.976 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.342 SERIES 963261 AND 963311 202 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.976 SERIES 963261 AND 963262 215 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.01 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 21. 78. 351. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 351. RBAR 0.323 0.500 0.509 0.568 0.623 0.619 0.542 0.504 0.421 0.362 SDEV 0.280 0.227 0.242 0.230 0.172 0.183 0.195 0.200 0.240 0.301 SERR 0.061 0.026 0.013 0.011 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.016 EPS 0.880 0.961 0.968 0.975 0.980 0.980 0.973 0.968 0.956 0.944 NSS 15.3 24.4 29.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.5 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1678 1992 315 0.310 0.138 1.064 4.358 0.275 0.746 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.673 0.343 0.045 162 153 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.52 1.22 1.00 1.20 2.42 57.26 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.10 0.00 0.88 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 260. 39. 215. 243. 282. 315. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.744 0.723 0.617 0.550 0.497 0.470 0.436 0.388 0.342 0.303 PACF 0.744 0.379 0.003 -0.024 0.031 0.083 0.034 -0.050 -0.049 -0.001 95% C.L. 0.113 0.164 0.200 0.223 0.240 0.252 0.263 0.272 0.279 0.284 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.619 0.460 0.382 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 963051 1 0.31755820 0.01776253 0.00000000 0.23453055 2 963052 1 0.58725417 0.01405273 0.00000000 0.08116102 3 963061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037634 0.21806529 4 963062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028385 0.23114662 5 963071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00079419 0.20641938 6 963072 1 0.31235582 0.01431666 0.00000000 0.10993724 7 963171 1 1.27060616 0.06658527 0.00000000 0.20104130 8 963172 1 0.69904971 0.11678711 0.00000000 0.23449326 9 963181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00095026 0.58297426 10 963182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00207374 0.77175236 11 963191 1 0.91413105 0.00820656 0.00000000 0.07582478 12 963192 1 0.78496253 0.01277372 0.00000000 0.13956562 13 963201 1 0.34511939 0.00623193 0.00000000 0.13460808 14 963202 1 0.27410057 0.01492109 0.00000000 0.24536751 15 963231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00122017 0.48054463 16 963232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00069409 0.41232696 17 963241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009688 0.31923589 18 963242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024935 0.35415819 19 963251 1 0.02369992 0.01043556 0.00000000 0.20491472 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 963252 1 0.03803584 0.01381642 0.00000000 0.20622598 21 963261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00296084 0.08130112 22 963262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00267745 0.10790524 23 963281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00048256 0.40508670 24 963282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013401 0.34781998 25 963291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00184385 0.65533775 26 963292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00179427 0.61415243 27 963301 1 0.32338941 0.01566789 0.00000000 0.11480799 28 963302 1 0.25136161 0.01368458 0.00000000 0.16924168 29 963311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00237392 0.60280496 30 963312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00146781 0.40155312 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 963051 1678 1992 315 0.999 0.491 0.661 3.391 0.313 0.704 2 963052 1682 1992 311 1.017 0.522 0.560 3.027 0.396 0.566 3 963061 1714 1992 279 1.000 0.581 0.951 3.555 0.349 0.775 4 963062 1711 1992 282 1.000 0.570 0.773 3.205 0.371 0.759 5 963071 1705 1992 288 1.014 0.570 1.057 3.700 0.270 0.806 6 963072 1703 1992 290 1.001 0.629 1.471 5.672 0.358 0.747 7 963171 1699 1992 294 1.002 0.524 0.593 3.086 0.383 0.653 8 963172 1711 1992 282 1.000 0.660 1.358 5.289 0.371 0.769 9 963181 1746 1992 247 1.003 0.649 1.893 8.357 0.430 0.679 10 963182 1751 1992 242 0.991 0.473 1.353 6.160 0.397 0.521 11 963191 1727 1992 266 1.002 0.434 0.203 2.563 0.423 0.445 12 963192 1734 1992 259 1.002 0.507 0.744 3.350 0.468 0.432 13 963201 1750 1992 243 1.001 0.554 0.796 3.711 0.437 0.661 14 963202 1750 1992 243 1.000 0.519 0.689 3.744 0.402 0.651 15 963231 1726 1992 267 0.982 0.498 0.690 3.207 0.406 0.552 16 963232 1716 1992 277 0.994 0.579 1.024 3.964 0.408 0.620 17 963241 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.468 0.822 3.596 0.340 0.654 18 963242 1746 1992 247 1.000 0.480 0.652 3.166 0.339 0.695 19 963251 1731 1992 262 1.000 0.407 0.602 3.548 0.313 0.589 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 963252 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.428 0.728 3.497 0.300 0.648 21 963261 1772 1992 221 1.026 0.538 0.711 2.945 0.306 0.705 22 963262 1778 1992 215 1.028 0.556 1.213 5.407 0.309 0.676 23 963281 1694 1992 299 0.997 0.677 1.542 6.292 0.371 0.793 24 963282 1704 1964 261 1.000 0.727 1.828 7.528 0.351 0.803 25 963291 1732 1992 261 0.994 0.515 1.156 5.327 0.343 0.738 26 963292 1745 1992 248 0.998 0.496 0.811 4.130 0.351 0.707 27 963301 1760 1992 233 1.001 0.601 1.023 3.584 0.400 0.748 28 963302 1755 1992 238 1.000 0.609 1.346 4.717 0.323 0.810 29 963311 1733 1973 241 1.027 0.656 1.178 4.895 0.435 0.561 30 963312 1740 1975 236 1.040 0.616 0.987 4.258 0.478 0.549 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 262 1.004 0.551 0.981 4.296 0.371 0.667 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.012 0.079 0.391 1.405 0.052 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 260 1.000 0.546 0.887 3.705 0.371 0.677 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.003 0.113 0.523 1.939 0.067 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 215 0.982 0.407 0.203 2.563 0.270 0.432 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.496 0.690 3.350 0.339 0.589 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 282 1.002 0.609 1.213 5.289 0.406 0.748 MAXIMUM VALUE 315 1.040 0.727 1.893 8.357 0.478 0.810 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 963051 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 963052 -67 208 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 963061 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 963062 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 963071 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 963072 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 963171 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 963172 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 963181 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 963182 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 963191 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 963192 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 963201 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 963202 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 963231 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 963232 -67 185 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 963241 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 963242 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 963251 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 963252 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 963261 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 963262 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 963281 -67 200 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 963282 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 963291 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 963292 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 963301 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 963302 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 963311 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 963312 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 963051 1678 1992 315 0.977 0.411 0.858 4.138 0.313 0.611 2 963052 1682 1992 311 0.981 0.439 0.479 3.291 0.397 0.474 3 963061 1714 1992 279 0.994 0.555 0.886 3.727 0.349 0.752 4 963062 1711 1992 282 0.994 0.550 0.747 3.390 0.371 0.744 5 963071 1705 1992 288 0.986 0.374 0.417 2.880 0.270 0.643 6 963072 1703 1992 290 0.981 0.414 0.458 3.123 0.358 0.503 7 963171 1699 1992 294 0.984 0.457 0.464 3.111 0.383 0.569 8 963172 1711 1992 282 0.956 0.501 1.324 6.232 0.370 0.684 9 963181 1746 1992 247 0.982 0.518 0.897 3.862 0.430 0.588 10 963182 1751 1992 242 0.997 0.433 0.827 4.499 0.397 0.416 11 963191 1727 1992 266 0.997 0.425 0.194 2.627 0.423 0.421 12 963192 1734 1992 259 0.997 0.490 0.676 3.262 0.468 0.415 13 963201 1750 1992 243 0.987 0.509 0.598 3.078 0.437 0.620 14 963202 1750 1992 243 0.990 0.471 0.383 2.803 0.402 0.598 15 963231 1726 1992 267 0.996 0.454 0.658 3.418 0.406 0.400 16 963232 1716 1992 277 0.993 0.527 1.024 4.107 0.409 0.524 17 963241 1734 1992 259 0.997 0.452 0.742 3.447 0.340 0.632 18 963242 1746 1992 247 0.995 0.463 0.599 3.122 0.339 0.674 19 963251 1731 1992 262 0.997 0.390 0.602 3.991 0.313 0.571 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 963252 1734 1992 259 0.996 0.409 0.848 4.451 0.300 0.632 21 963261 1772 1992 221 0.998 0.507 0.687 3.061 0.305 0.707 22 963262 1778 1992 215 0.997 0.505 0.867 3.525 0.309 0.699 23 963281 1694 1992 299 0.984 0.581 1.121 4.851 0.371 0.715 24 963282 1704 1964 261 0.967 0.590 1.996 11.032 0.351 0.711 25 963291 1732 1992 261 0.996 0.481 0.727 4.023 0.343 0.704 26 963292 1745 1992 248 0.995 0.476 0.590 3.585 0.350 0.680 27 963301 1760 1992 233 0.983 0.505 0.853 3.699 0.401 0.662 28 963302 1755 1992 238 0.988 0.528 1.190 4.805 0.323 0.750 29 963311 1733 1973 241 0.972 0.548 0.981 4.256 0.435 0.538 30 963312 1740 1975 236 0.981 0.498 0.672 3.896 0.478 0.414 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 262 0.988 0.482 0.779 3.976 0.371 0.602 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.010 0.056 0.338 1.527 0.052 0.112 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 260 0.991 0.486 0.735 3.642 0.371 0.626 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.014 0.079 0.288 1.015 0.067 0.175 MINIMUM VALUE 215 0.956 0.374 0.194 2.627 0.270 0.400 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 243 0.982 0.439 0.598 3.123 0.339 0.524 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 282 0.996 0.518 0.886 4.138 0.406 0.699 MAXIMUM VALUE 315 0.998 0.590 1.996 11.032 0.478 0.752 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.511 0.127 0.006 0.095 4.070 0.107 0.968 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.107 SERIES 963051 AND 963282 261 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.968 SERIES 963061 AND 963062 279 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.01 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 21. 78. 351. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 351. RBAR 0.245 0.578 0.516 0.639 0.650 0.629 0.573 0.514 0.452 0.452 SDEV 0.262 0.181 0.215 0.179 0.142 0.142 0.191 0.186 0.220 0.206 SERR 0.057 0.020 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.007 0.009 0.009 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.832 0.971 0.969 0.982 0.982 0.981 0.976 0.969 0.961 0.960 NSS 15.3 24.4 29.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.5 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1678 1992 315 0.960 0.336 0.570 3.721 0.276 0.576 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.534 0.191 0.125 114 201 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.48 1.00 1.06 1.55 8.50 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.574 0.513 0.428 0.310 0.273 0.243 0.177 0.112 -0.007 -0.085 PACF 0.574 0.273 0.091 -0.051 0.026 0.049 -0.029 -0.071 -0.162 -0.111 95% C.L. 0.113 0.145 0.167 0.180 0.187 0.192 0.196 0.198 0.198 0.198 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.390 0.391 0.241 0.089 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.578 0.521 0.444 0.333 0.290 0.263 0.181 0.131 -0.017 -0.093 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.578 2 0.416 0.281 3 0.386 0.237 0.106 4 0.390 0.246 0.121 -0.038 5 0.390 0.244 0.117 -0.045 0.016 6 0.390 0.246 0.111 -0.057 -0.004 0.050 7 0.392 0.246 0.108 -0.051 0.009 0.071 -0.052 8 0.390 0.250 0.109 -0.054 0.015 0.083 -0.033 -0.050 9 0.380 0.243 0.126 -0.051 0.004 0.105 0.018 0.029 -0.204 10 0.355 0.247 0.128 -0.038 0.004 0.099 0.033 0.059 -0.158 -0.120 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3217.31 3091.14 3067.20 3065.63 3067.16 3069.08 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3070.28 3071.42 3072.63 3061.28 3058.69 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.386 0.237 0.106 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 39.38 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 164.97 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.386 0.386 0.346 0.266 0.226 0.187 0.154 0.128 0.106 0.0873 0.072 0.060 0.049 0.041 0.034 0.028 0.023 0.019 0.016 0.0131 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.0020 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 963051 3 0.421 0.435 0.216 0.084 2 963052 3 0.315 0.285 0.272 0.130 3 963061 3 0.589 0.605 0.116 0.094 4 963062 3 0.575 0.594 0.150 0.062 5 963071 3 0.445 0.533 0.043 0.170 6 963072 3 0.317 0.340 0.204 0.137 7 963171 3 0.356 0.458 0.142 0.073 8 963172 3 0.512 0.483 0.217 0.090 9 963181 3 0.385 0.445 0.187 0.072 10 963182 3 0.218 0.309 0.180 0.094 11 963191 3 0.257 0.267 0.258 0.111 12 963192 3 0.228 0.293 0.191 0.119 13 963201 3 0.422 0.485 0.131 0.113 14 963202 3 0.379 0.491 0.139 0.053 15 963231 3 0.238 0.272 0.128 0.233 16 963232 3 0.359 0.346 0.161 0.212 17 963241 3 0.418 0.521 0.146 0.040 18 963242 3 0.469 0.566 0.112 0.061 19 963251 3 0.353 0.522 -0.013 0.155 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 963252 3 0.422 0.528 0.084 0.108 21 963261 3 0.508 0.646 0.060 0.037 22 963262 3 0.514 0.636 0.108 0.000 23 963281 3 0.552 0.548 0.212 0.037 24 963282 3 0.561 0.634 0.181 -0.044 25 963291 3 0.538 0.496 0.230 0.075 26 963292 3 0.499 0.511 0.247 0.004 27 963301 3 0.491 0.460 0.264 0.047 28 963302 3 0.597 0.595 0.258 -0.057 29 963311 3 0.336 0.401 0.242 0.015 30 963312 3 0.225 0.298 0.213 0.079 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.417 0.467 0.169 0.080 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.117 0.118 0.071 0.065 MEDIAN 3 0.421 0.488 0.180 0.077 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.177 0.202 0.089 0.074 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.218 0.267 -0.013 -0.057 LOWER HINGE 3 0.336 0.346 0.128 0.040 UPPER HINGE 3 0.512 0.548 0.217 0.113 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.597 0.646 0.272 0.233 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 963051 1678 1992 315 1.000 0.314 0.283 3.690 0.363 -0.006 2 963052 1682 1992 311 1.000 0.363 0.238 3.028 0.419 0.000 3 963061 1714 1992 279 1.001 0.356 0.443 3.982 0.409 0.009 4 963062 1711 1992 282 1.001 0.358 0.205 3.353 0.419 0.005 5 963071 1705 1992 288 1.000 0.278 0.246 3.124 0.321 0.000 6 963072 1703 1992 290 1.000 0.342 0.406 3.551 0.391 -0.007 7 963171 1699 1992 294 1.000 0.368 0.276 3.689 0.431 -0.006 8 963172 1711 1992 282 1.000 0.349 0.349 4.049 0.410 0.001 9 963181 1746 1992 247 1.000 0.406 0.672 4.445 0.473 0.007 10 963182 1751 1992 242 1.000 0.382 0.451 4.204 0.449 -0.001 11 963191 1727 1992 266 1.000 0.366 -0.051 2.782 0.459 -0.001 12 963192 1734 1992 259 1.001 0.428 0.352 3.233 0.521 0.004 13 963201 1750 1992 243 1.000 0.387 0.265 3.105 0.462 -0.001 14 963202 1750 1992 243 1.000 0.371 0.349 3.251 0.425 0.001 15 963231 1726 1992 267 1.001 0.392 0.339 3.517 0.443 0.004 16 963232 1716 1992 277 1.001 0.423 0.917 5.414 0.461 -0.019 17 963241 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.345 0.471 3.481 0.393 -0.001 18 963242 1746 1992 247 1.000 0.337 0.242 2.991 0.390 0.001 19 963251 1731 1992 262 1.000 0.315 0.395 4.143 0.365 0.014 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 963252 1734 1992 259 1.000 0.311 0.511 5.244 0.357 0.005 21 963261 1772 1992 221 1.000 0.355 0.741 4.065 0.391 -0.002 22 963262 1778 1992 215 1.000 0.349 0.530 3.371 0.389 -0.014 23 963281 1694 1992 299 1.001 0.383 0.657 5.154 0.423 -0.010 24 963282 1704 1964 261 1.003 0.373 1.038 7.282 0.405 -0.014 25 963291 1732 1992 261 1.000 0.327 0.146 3.211 0.382 0.001 26 963292 1745 1992 248 1.000 0.337 0.216 2.970 0.391 -0.001 27 963301 1760 1992 233 1.000 0.362 0.275 3.126 0.425 0.005 28 963302 1755 1992 238 1.001 0.337 0.571 3.847 0.379 -0.009 29 963311 1733 1973 241 1.003 0.439 0.677 3.918 0.476 0.009 30 963312 1740 1975 236 1.000 0.438 0.545 3.333 0.509 -0.003 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 262 1.000 0.363 0.425 3.818 0.418 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.001 0.038 0.232 0.942 0.045 0.007 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 260 1.000 0.360 0.374 3.534 0.415 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.001 0.046 0.281 0.854 0.060 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 215 1.000 0.278 -0.051 2.782 0.321 -0.019 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.337 0.265 3.211 0.390 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 282 1.001 0.383 0.545 4.065 0.449 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 315 1.003 0.439 1.038 7.282 0.521 0.014 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.529 0.105 0.005 0.625 4.102 0.284 0.926 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.284 SERIES 963181 AND 963311 228 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.926 SERIES 963061 AND 963062 279 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.01 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 21. 78. 351. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 435. 351. RBAR 0.258 0.476 0.429 0.579 0.614 0.568 0.570 0.566 0.558 0.549 SDEV 0.230 0.160 0.175 0.147 0.124 0.137 0.146 0.130 0.135 0.132 SERR 0.050 0.018 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.006 0.007 EPS 0.841 0.957 0.956 0.976 0.980 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.974 0.973 NSS 15.3 24.4 29.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.5 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1678 1992 315 0.986 0.258 0.136 3.359 0.310 -0.066 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.288 0.097 0.133 127 188 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.45 1.00 1.07 1.51 7.88 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.065 0.035 0.017 -0.057 0.006 0.066 0.060 0.070 -0.044 -0.090 PACF -0.065 0.031 0.022 -0.056 -0.002 0.070 0.071 0.072 -0.042 -0.098 95% C.L. 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.115 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.002 -0.005 -0.060 0.002 0.071 0.074 0.073 -0.048 -0.094 PACF 0.001 0.002 -0.005 -0.060 0.002 0.072 0.074 0.070 -0.048 -0.088 95% C.L. 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.004 0.001 0.002 -0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1678 1992 315 0.981 0.325 0.566 3.554 0.261 0.564 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.562 0.500 0.422 0.314 0.278 0.248 0.188 0.127 0.013 -0.067 PACF 0.562 0.270 0.103 -0.031 0.028 0.044 -0.021 -0.060 -0.151 -0.117 95% C.L. 0.113 0.144 0.165 0.178 0.185 0.190 0.194 0.196 0.197 0.197 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.376 0.382 0.233 0.099 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.46 MINUTES