RUN: OR001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: OR043N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: OR043N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 762 1 Barlow Pass, am Mt.Hood DENSITY_MINIMUM PSME - 762 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 1300 4519-12139 1504 19 762 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 762011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1672 1673 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 762012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1942 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 762031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1934 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 762032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1735 1739 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 762041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1649 1649 / 1655 1655 / 1704 1704 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 762051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 16 IN 3 GAPS / 1801 1805 / 1950 1955 / 1962 1966 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 762052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1755 1759 / 1890 1894 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 762062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 2 GAPS / 1710 1715 / 1972 1972 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 762072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1729 1733 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 762081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1737 1741 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 762082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1857 1861 / 1974 1978 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 762091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1734 1739 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 762131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1672 1676 / 1899 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 762132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1975 1979 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 0.357 0.043 0.866 3.908 0.059 0.771 2 762012 1579 1983 405 0.306 0.028 2.030 16.059 0.050 0.637 3 762021 1625 1983 359 0.336 0.037 0.564 2.880 0.051 0.798 4 762022 1559 1983 425 0.325 0.028 2.557 22.782 0.059 0.345 5 762031 1741 1983 243 0.355 0.033 2.155 11.527 0.046 0.764 6 762032 1625 1983 359 0.334 0.032 0.725 3.407 0.051 0.720 7 762041 1510 1983 474 0.334 0.029 0.057 3.450 0.052 0.658 8 762042 1504 1983 480 0.360 0.040 0.462 3.084 0.055 0.741 9 762051 1745 1983 239 0.325 0.020 0.514 2.996 0.048 0.377 10 762052 1750 1983 234 0.323 0.016 0.692 4.285 0.043 0.355 11 762061 1729 1983 255 0.380 0.029 -0.391 4.223 0.065 0.385 12 762062 1654 1983 330 0.349 0.034 0.332 3.161 0.069 0.506 13 762071 1711 1983 273 0.339 0.037 0.563 3.208 0.060 0.752 14 762072 1721 1983 263 0.349 0.032 0.299 3.961 0.060 0.622 15 762081 1733 1983 251 0.313 0.022 0.120 3.876 0.051 0.519 16 762082 1705 1983 279 0.307 0.026 0.995 6.105 0.046 0.721 17 762091 1734 1983 250 0.298 0.037 1.063 4.225 0.050 0.842 18 762092 1807 1983 177 0.287 0.023 -0.660 3.209 0.051 0.644 19 762101 1720 1983 264 0.327 0.022 0.872 5.429 0.051 0.489 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 0.326 0.021 0.410 3.342 0.044 0.579 21 762111 1737 1983 247 0.332 0.025 0.237 2.707 0.052 0.611 22 762112 1734 1983 250 0.355 0.029 0.346 3.831 0.058 0.507 23 762121 1742 1983 242 0.321 0.025 -0.079 3.394 0.051 0.654 24 762122 1746 1983 238 0.322 0.020 0.401 2.880 0.050 0.443 25 762131 1652 1983 332 0.338 0.028 0.286 3.088 0.045 0.763 26 762132 1613 1983 371 0.358 0.029 0.309 2.946 0.053 0.627 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1504 TO 1983 480 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 300 0.333 0.029 0.605 5.152 0.053 0.609 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.021 0.007 0.722 4.641 0.006 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 0.333 0.028 0.436 3.429 0.051 0.632 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 115 0.027 0.010 0.580 1.137 0.008 0.235 MINIMUM VALUE 177 0.287 0.016 -0.660 2.707 0.043 0.345 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 244 0.322 0.023 0.286 3.088 0.050 0.506 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 0.349 0.033 0.866 4.225 0.058 0.741 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 0.380 0.043 2.557 22.782 0.069 0.842 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.136 0.175 0.010 -0.053 2.887 -0.452 0.586 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.452 SERIES 762021 AND 762091 250 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.586 SERIES 762021 AND 762032 359 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1560. 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. CORR 1. 3. 6. 10. 28. 45. 45. 55. 171. 300. RBAR 0.404 0.218 0.162 0.110 0.104 0.122 0.107 0.331 0.180 0.173 SDEV 0.000 0.268 0.231 0.145 0.308 0.212 0.199 0.170 0.233 0.207 SERR 0.000 0.155 0.094 0.046 0.058 0.032 0.030 0.023 0.018 0.012 EPS 0.641 0.511 0.515 0.485 0.520 0.583 0.592 0.902 0.840 0.839 NSS 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 12.1 18.5 24.0 25.1 YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.181 0.133 0.129 0.144 0.128 0.177 SDEV 0.188 0.197 0.277 0.221 0.269 0.216 SERR 0.011 0.011 0.015 0.012 0.015 0.012 EPS 0.850 0.800 0.794 0.813 0.793 0.848 NSS 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.328 0.016 -0.275 3.302 0.031 0.653 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.481 0.356 -0.087 123 357 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.76 1.00 1.07 1.83 9.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 264. 112. 177. 247. 359. 480. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.651 0.605 0.583 0.553 0.518 0.479 0.502 0.463 0.505 0.452 PACF 0.651 0.315 0.207 0.124 0.062 0.018 0.119 0.017 0.148 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.091 0.124 0.147 0.165 0.180 0.192 0.201 0.212 0.220 0.229 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.517 0.350 0.193 0.164 0.131 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 762011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009276 0.33950883 2 762012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012891 0.28035527 3 762021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001607 0.33348671 4 762022 1 0.03180368 0.01992545 0.00000000 0.32145911 5 762031 1 0.06827942 0.03636760 0.00000000 0.34618521 6 762032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011190 0.31349209 7 762041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010297 0.30931234 8 762042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014811 0.32412970 9 762051 1 0.04873379 0.04470781 0.00000000 0.32060459 10 762052 1 0.03063929 0.03159591 0.00000000 0.32018048 11 762061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002190 0.38311687 12 762062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007025 0.33692217 13 762071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019392 0.36594403 14 762072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001274 0.34724432 15 762081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007559 0.30342796 16 762082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003437 0.30254766 17 762091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029722 0.25977698 18 762092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00024301 0.26583013 19 762101 1 0.09363065 0.08462767 0.00000000 0.32257494 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 762102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003272 0.33032653 21 762111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001925 0.32915178 22 762112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009591 0.34316337 23 762121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011863 0.30628887 24 762122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008424 0.31194979 25 762131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008822 0.32299411 26 762132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009758 0.34035167 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.114 0.692 3.409 0.059 0.748 2 762012 1579 1983 405 1.000 0.077 1.966 17.347 0.050 0.501 3 762021 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.109 0.559 2.903 0.051 0.795 4 762022 1559 1983 425 1.000 0.084 2.990 27.688 0.059 0.300 5 762031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.083 1.426 7.043 0.046 0.701 6 762032 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.088 0.742 3.568 0.051 0.672 7 762041 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.075 0.362 4.963 0.052 0.551 8 762042 1504 1983 480 1.000 0.093 0.641 5.274 0.055 0.634 9 762051 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.055 0.624 3.695 0.048 0.193 10 762052 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.048 0.734 5.236 0.043 0.274 11 762061 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.076 -0.379 4.318 0.065 0.379 12 762062 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.096 0.241 2.876 0.068 0.513 13 762071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.096 0.297 3.049 0.060 0.681 14 762072 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.091 0.287 3.963 0.059 0.620 15 762081 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.069 0.451 4.228 0.052 0.487 16 762082 1705 1983 279 1.000 0.083 1.012 5.917 0.046 0.702 17 762091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.100 0.114 2.815 0.050 0.777 18 762092 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.067 -0.358 3.011 0.051 0.505 19 762101 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.056 0.103 4.217 0.051 0.255 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.063 0.298 3.213 0.044 0.569 21 762111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.077 0.250 2.674 0.052 0.606 22 762112 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.078 0.581 4.146 0.057 0.474 23 762121 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.075 0.031 3.115 0.051 0.607 24 762122 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.060 0.414 3.087 0.050 0.388 25 762131 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.080 0.066 2.859 0.045 0.744 26 762132 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.077 0.373 3.475 0.053 0.583 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 1.000 0.080 0.558 5.311 0.053 0.548 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.016 0.696 5.381 0.006 0.169 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 1.000 0.078 0.393 3.631 0.051 0.576 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.000 0.022 0.451 1.915 0.008 0.207 MINIMUM VALUE 177 1.000 0.048 -0.379 2.674 0.043 0.193 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.069 0.241 3.049 0.050 0.474 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 1.000 0.091 0.692 4.963 0.057 0.681 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 1.000 0.114 2.990 27.688 0.068 0.795 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 762011 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 762012 -67 271 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 762021 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 762022 -67 284 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 762031 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 762032 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 762041 -67 317 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 762042 -67 321 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 762051 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 762052 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 762061 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 762062 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 762071 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 762072 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 762081 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 762082 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 762091 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 762092 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 762101 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 762102 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 762111 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 762112 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 762121 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 762122 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 762131 -67 222 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 762132 -67 248 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 0.999 0.095 0.815 3.999 0.059 0.642 2 762012 1579 1983 405 1.000 0.074 2.053 18.294 0.050 0.470 3 762021 1625 1983 359 0.999 0.079 0.395 3.007 0.051 0.625 4 762022 1559 1983 425 1.000 0.079 3.299 31.356 0.059 0.225 5 762031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.077 1.537 8.147 0.046 0.654 6 762032 1625 1983 359 0.999 0.073 0.679 3.856 0.051 0.532 7 762041 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.070 0.351 5.271 0.052 0.487 8 762042 1504 1983 480 1.000 0.086 1.031 6.882 0.055 0.568 9 762051 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.054 0.604 3.665 0.048 0.178 10 762052 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.047 0.731 5.195 0.043 0.265 11 762061 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.072 0.099 4.250 0.065 0.294 12 762062 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.086 0.351 3.802 0.068 0.380 13 762071 1711 1983 273 0.999 0.080 0.412 3.353 0.060 0.544 14 762072 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.084 0.311 3.839 0.059 0.565 15 762081 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.066 0.438 4.056 0.052 0.434 16 762082 1705 1983 279 1.000 0.074 0.997 6.823 0.046 0.623 17 762091 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.079 0.290 3.394 0.050 0.654 18 762092 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.062 -0.148 3.575 0.051 0.434 19 762101 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.054 0.169 4.185 0.051 0.225 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.057 0.478 3.543 0.044 0.487 21 762111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.064 0.315 3.267 0.052 0.451 22 762112 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.071 0.904 5.733 0.058 0.368 23 762121 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.067 0.130 3.038 0.051 0.513 24 762122 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.057 0.413 3.030 0.050 0.332 25 762131 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.076 0.154 3.094 0.045 0.717 26 762132 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.067 0.619 4.343 0.053 0.449 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 1.000 0.071 0.670 5.885 0.053 0.466 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.011 0.710 6.019 0.006 0.149 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 1.000 0.073 0.425 3.928 0.051 0.478 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.000 0.015 0.504 1.877 0.008 0.200 MINIMUM VALUE 177 0.999 0.047 -0.148 3.007 0.043 0.178 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.064 0.311 3.394 0.050 0.368 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 1.000 0.079 0.815 5.271 0.058 0.568 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 1.000 0.095 3.299 31.356 0.068 0.717 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.151 0.119 0.007 0.182 3.268 -0.150 0.492 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.150 SERIES 762031 AND 762042 243 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.492 SERIES 762032 AND 762131 332 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1560. 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. CORR 1. 3. 6. 10. 28. 45. 45. 55. 171. 300. RBAR 0.332 0.191 0.181 0.135 0.115 0.126 0.103 0.244 0.162 0.174 SDEV 0.000 0.285 0.208 0.132 0.269 0.190 0.195 0.186 0.198 0.181 SERR 0.000 0.164 0.085 0.042 0.051 0.028 0.029 0.025 0.015 0.010 EPS 0.567 0.471 0.548 0.542 0.547 0.594 0.582 0.856 0.823 0.841 NSS 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 12.1 18.5 24.0 25.1 YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.202 0.146 0.126 0.143 0.122 0.166 SDEV 0.179 0.190 0.248 0.223 0.251 0.214 SERR 0.010 0.011 0.014 0.012 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.866 0.816 0.790 0.813 0.783 0.838 NSS 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.996 0.035 0.382 3.324 0.031 0.400 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.134 0.088 -0.028 133 347 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.34 1.00 1.06 1.40 6.62 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.399 0.345 0.332 0.264 0.223 0.193 0.236 0.161 0.199 0.134 PACF 0.399 0.221 0.170 0.061 0.031 0.019 0.104 -0.016 0.072 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.091 0.105 0.114 0.122 0.126 0.130 0.132 0.135 0.137 0.139 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.227 0.273 0.168 0.170 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.380 0.337 0.389 0.281 0.213 0.232 0.244 0.150 0.174 0.164 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.380 2 0.294 0.225 3 0.238 0.151 0.252 4 0.224 0.142 0.239 0.056 5 0.224 0.145 0.240 0.058 -0.010 6 0.225 0.142 0.229 0.051 -0.020 0.046 7 0.221 0.144 0.225 0.031 -0.032 0.026 0.088 8 0.223 0.145 0.224 0.032 -0.025 0.030 0.095 -0.031 9 0.224 0.142 0.223 0.033 -0.026 0.024 0.091 -0.038 0.029 10 0.224 0.142 0.222 0.032 -0.026 0.023 0.089 -0.039 0.027 0.009 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2489.55 2416.74 2393.83 2364.32 2364.83 2366.79 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2367.79 2366.03 2367.56 2369.14 2371.11 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.238 0.151 0.252 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 23.92 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 131.44 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.238 0.207 0.337 0.171 0.144 0.145 0.099 0.082 0.071 0.0542 0.044 0.037 0.029 0.024 0.019 0.015 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.0066 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0008 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 762011 3 0.491 0.413 0.185 0.194 2 762012 3 0.282 0.331 0.211 0.096 3 762021 3 0.465 0.395 0.212 0.176 4 762022 3 0.063 0.205 0.070 0.039 5 762031 3 0.465 0.496 0.197 0.059 6 762032 3 0.340 0.396 0.093 0.211 7 762041 3 0.281 0.376 0.114 0.152 8 762042 3 0.361 0.446 0.191 0.032 9 762051 3 0.076 0.132 0.120 0.149 10 762052 3 0.077 0.258 0.041 -0.029 11 762061 3 0.098 0.282 0.071 0.005 12 762062 3 0.257 0.230 0.186 0.224 13 762071 3 0.334 0.437 0.085 0.151 14 762072 3 0.426 0.347 0.112 0.319 15 762081 3 0.263 0.292 0.214 0.126 16 762082 3 0.428 0.572 -0.049 0.206 17 762091 3 0.466 0.495 0.174 0.087 18 762092 3 0.222 0.482 -0.102 0.025 19 762101 3 0.112 0.154 0.234 0.067 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 762102 3 0.284 0.369 0.201 0.060 21 762111 3 0.255 0.336 0.123 0.172 22 762112 3 0.180 0.290 0.117 0.132 23 762121 3 0.304 0.426 0.057 0.163 24 762122 3 0.136 0.276 0.111 0.084 25 762131 3 0.592 0.414 0.312 0.117 26 762132 3 0.274 0.312 0.272 0.035 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.290 0.352 0.137 0.117 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.145 0.109 0.093 0.080 MEDIAN 3 0.281 0.358 0.122 0.121 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.247 0.144 0.116 0.113 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.063 0.132 -0.102 -0.029 LOWER HINGE 3 0.180 0.282 0.085 0.059 UPPER HINGE 3 0.426 0.426 0.201 0.172 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.592 0.572 0.312 0.319 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.069 0.983 6.161 0.075 -0.031 2 762012 1579 1983 405 1.000 0.063 3.379 36.457 0.060 -0.009 3 762021 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.057 0.257 3.559 0.062 -0.009 4 762022 1559 1983 425 1.000 0.077 3.638 36.004 0.066 -0.003 5 762031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.056 1.770 11.050 0.060 -0.005 6 762032 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.060 0.861 5.179 0.063 -0.006 7 762041 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.060 0.831 7.516 0.063 -0.006 8 762042 1504 1983 480 1.000 0.069 1.412 11.013 0.070 -0.002 9 762051 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.052 0.714 4.265 0.051 0.009 10 762052 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.046 0.775 5.385 0.050 0.001 11 762061 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.068 0.188 4.365 0.074 -0.003 12 762062 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.075 0.740 5.692 0.079 -0.035 13 762071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.065 0.471 3.256 0.074 -0.012 14 762072 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.064 0.548 6.143 0.068 0.002 15 762081 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.057 0.603 4.388 0.060 0.013 16 762082 1705 1983 279 1.000 0.056 0.849 6.530 0.061 -0.013 17 762091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.057 -0.105 3.259 0.064 0.004 18 762092 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.056 -0.096 3.346 0.063 -0.010 19 762101 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.051 0.262 4.873 0.055 -0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.048 0.378 3.333 0.054 -0.007 21 762111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.055 0.454 3.566 0.062 0.000 22 762112 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.064 0.867 5.937 0.067 -0.012 23 762121 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.056 0.346 3.226 0.064 -0.019 24 762122 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.053 0.527 3.460 0.058 0.005 25 762131 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.049 0.056 2.948 0.056 -0.013 26 762132 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.058 0.529 5.646 0.064 -0.004 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 1.000 0.059 0.817 7.560 0.063 -0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.008 0.896 8.702 0.007 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 1.000 0.057 0.576 5.026 0.063 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.000 0.009 0.516 2.700 0.008 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 177 1.000 0.046 -0.105 2.948 0.050 -0.035 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.055 0.346 3.460 0.060 -0.012 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 1.000 0.064 0.861 6.161 0.067 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 1.000 0.077 3.638 36.457 0.079 0.013 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.175 0.077 0.004 -0.141 3.773 -0.103 0.400 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.103 SERIES 762022 AND 762111 247 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.400 SERIES 762051 AND 762052 234 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1560. 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. CORR 1. 3. 6. 10. 28. 45. 45. 55. 171. 300. RBAR 0.315 0.130 0.152 0.190 0.157 0.136 0.152 0.223 0.190 0.183 SDEV 0.000 0.174 0.147 0.120 0.154 0.147 0.134 0.154 0.141 0.151 SERR 0.000 0.100 0.060 0.038 0.029 0.022 0.020 0.021 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.548 0.360 0.496 0.641 0.633 0.614 0.685 0.842 0.849 0.849 NSS 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 12.1 18.5 24.0 25.1 YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.203 0.181 0.148 0.196 0.157 0.162 SDEV 0.140 0.150 0.153 0.144 0.155 0.160 SERR 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.008 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.867 0.851 0.819 0.864 0.829 0.834 NSS 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.997 0.031 0.311 3.343 0.037 -0.109 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.084 0.054 -0.008 145 335 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.86 1.00 1.07 1.93 173.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.109 -0.011 0.008 -0.019 -0.002 -0.015 0.099 0.003 0.097 -0.017 PACF -0.109 -0.023 0.004 -0.018 -0.006 -0.016 0.097 0.025 0.105 0.004 95% C.L. 0.091 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.093 0.093 0.094 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.012 -0.109 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.019 -0.003 -0.005 0.103 0.025 0.099 -0.010 PACF 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.019 -0.003 -0.005 0.102 0.025 0.100 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.092 0.092 0.093 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.997 0.036 0.391 3.471 0.031 0.401 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.400 0.361 0.416 0.275 0.246 0.244 0.254 0.189 0.213 0.131 PACF 0.400 0.239 0.265 0.015 0.022 0.033 0.096 -0.006 0.052 -0.077 95% C.L. 0.091 0.105 0.115 0.127 0.132 0.135 0.139 0.143 0.145 0.147 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.264 0.241 0.158 0.266 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.41 MINUTES