RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM054I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM054I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 051 1 Mźnstertal (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_EARLY ABAL - 051 2 Germany silver fir, European fir 460 4751-746 1864 1995 - 051 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 051023 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1950 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 051055 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1875 1875 / 1961 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 051057 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1961 1962 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 051011 1873 1995 123 3.582 0.467 1.524 7.753 0.100 0.420 2 051013 1873 1995 123 3.472 0.466 1.116 5.031 0.107 0.498 3 051015 1871 1995 125 3.597 0.394 0.579 3.396 0.098 0.309 4 051017 1871 1995 125 3.472 0.512 1.903 8.617 0.096 0.537 5 051021 1879 1995 117 3.445 0.445 1.118 6.121 0.085 0.611 6 051023 1879 1995 117 3.499 0.364 0.352 2.967 0.090 0.380 7 051025 1879 1995 117 3.297 0.339 0.479 3.070 0.096 0.334 8 051027 1879 1995 117 3.227 0.357 0.564 3.242 0.100 0.392 9 051031 1870 1995 126 3.350 0.428 1.398 6.799 0.116 0.265 10 051033 1871 1995 125 3.810 0.436 1.257 5.899 0.094 0.351 11 051035 1871 1995 125 3.569 0.364 0.522 3.579 0.091 0.307 12 051037 1872 1995 124 3.543 0.410 1.308 6.033 0.100 0.387 13 051041 1904 1995 92 3.183 0.283 0.155 3.207 0.083 0.338 14 051043 1904 1995 92 3.605 0.353 0.731 6.010 0.096 0.175 15 051045 1904 1995 92 3.545 0.431 2.250 12.630 0.086 0.469 16 051047 1903 1995 93 3.360 0.346 2.179 14.173 0.080 0.297 17 051051 1864 1995 132 3.522 0.326 0.351 3.221 0.069 0.536 18 051053 1864 1995 132 3.653 0.317 0.407 5.448 0.083 0.229 19 051055 1865 1995 131 3.633 0.462 1.200 4.998 0.077 0.567 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 051057 1864 1995 132 3.359 0.352 1.317 6.959 0.082 0.440 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1864 TO 1995 132 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 3.486 0.393 1.035 5.958 0.091 0.392 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.154 0.061 0.622 3.061 0.011 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 3.510 0.379 1.117 5.673 0.093 0.384 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.230 0.092 0.857 3.560 0.016 0.176 MINIMUM VALUE 92 3.183 0.283 0.155 2.967 0.069 0.175 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 115 3.359 0.349 0.500 3.319 0.083 0.308 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 3.590 0.440 1.357 6.879 0.099 0.483 MAXIMUM VALUE 132 3.810 0.512 2.250 14.173 0.116 0.611 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.284 0.199 0.014 -0.118 2.653 -0.177 0.809 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.177 SERIES 051013 AND 051045 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.809 SERIES 051011 AND 051017 123 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 83.80 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1874. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 3. 120. 120. 120. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.877 0.560 0.642 0.382 0.425 0.378 0.323 0.408 0.351 0.334 SDEV 0.040 0.207 0.144 0.226 0.193 0.186 0.210 0.198 0.197 0.245 SERR 0.023 0.019 0.013 0.021 0.014 0.014 0.015 0.014 0.014 0.018 EPS 0.986 0.953 0.969 0.922 0.937 0.924 0.905 0.932 0.915 0.909 NSS 9.9 16.0 17.2 19.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 190. RBAR 0.304 SDEV 0.245 SERR 0.018 EPS 0.897 NSS 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1864 1995 132 3.503 0.290 1.846 9.174 0.066 0.360 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.220 0.094 -0.003 35 97 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.58 1.00 1.08 1.66 4.60 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.74 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 124. 8. 92. 117. 126. 132. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.358 0.163 0.146 0.119 0.032 0.073 0.195 0.190 0.205 0.286 PACF 0.358 0.040 0.087 0.042 -0.043 0.065 0.164 0.080 0.111 0.173 95% C.L. 0.174 0.195 0.199 0.202 0.204 0.205 0.205 0.211 0.216 0.222 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.165 0.401 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 051011 1 1.17412567 0.08703224 0.00000000 3.47722197 2 051013 1 1.29488277 0.11226889 0.00000000 3.38383484 3 051015 1 0.91509271 0.15522474 0.00000000 3.55368352 4 051017 1 1.49125838 0.06805000 0.00000000 3.30229831 5 051021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00690877 3.03785300 6 051023 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00428855 3.24887204 7 051025 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00192720 3.18347478 8 051027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00420657 2.97907758 9 051031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015877 3.33952117 10 051033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045253 3.78181028 11 051035 1 0.46685860 0.08591565 0.00000000 3.52693081 12 051037 1 0.40224102 0.04582032 0.00000000 3.47387385 13 051041 1 0.69434083 0.13270107 0.00000000 3.13029552 14 051043 1 0.45770830 0.10974260 0.00000000 3.56243610 15 051045 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00795455 3.91477776 16 051047 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00263451 3.48382187 17 051051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00368405 3.76741385 18 051053 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00065786 3.60882831 19 051055 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00731749 4.12605143 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 051057 1 0.83686650 0.08175669 0.00000000 3.28717756 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 051011 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.114 1.135 4.912 0.099 0.260 2 051013 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.118 0.759 3.526 0.107 0.346 3 051015 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.104 0.675 3.826 0.097 0.256 4 051017 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.113 1.079 5.502 0.095 0.314 5 051021 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.108 0.632 5.253 0.084 0.461 6 051023 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.095 0.550 3.760 0.088 0.286 7 051025 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.101 0.468 3.404 0.095 0.305 8 051027 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.101 0.322 2.936 0.100 0.253 9 051031 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.128 1.429 6.923 0.116 0.263 10 051033 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.115 1.303 6.179 0.094 0.347 11 051035 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.098 0.241 2.987 0.090 0.281 12 051037 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.111 0.964 4.872 0.099 0.340 13 051041 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.081 0.278 3.690 0.082 0.201 14 051043 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.096 1.082 7.269 0.095 0.128 15 051045 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.104 2.561 13.714 0.084 0.312 16 051047 1903 1995 93 1.000 0.100 1.883 11.434 0.079 0.286 17 051051 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.083 0.262 2.826 0.068 0.448 18 051053 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.087 0.535 6.029 0.082 0.221 19 051055 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.100 1.227 4.984 0.079 0.399 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 051057 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.092 0.549 3.199 0.081 0.378 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 1.000 0.102 0.897 5.361 0.091 0.304 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.012 0.592 2.828 0.011 0.081 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.101 0.717 4.892 0.092 0.295 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.017 0.680 2.639 0.015 0.089 MINIMUM VALUE 92 1.000 0.081 0.241 2.826 0.068 0.128 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.095 0.501 3.465 0.082 0.258 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.112 1.181 6.104 0.098 0.347 MAXIMUM VALUE 132 1.000 0.128 2.561 13.714 0.116 0.461 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 051011 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 051013 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 051015 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 051017 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 051021 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 051023 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 051025 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 051027 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 051031 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 051033 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 051035 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 051037 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 051041 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 051043 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 051045 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 051047 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 051051 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 051053 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 051055 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 051057 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 051011 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.105 1.246 5.581 0.099 0.144 2 051013 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.105 0.696 3.775 0.106 0.162 3 051015 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.102 0.657 3.866 0.097 0.230 4 051017 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.107 1.198 6.092 0.095 0.230 5 051021 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.098 0.847 5.502 0.085 0.344 6 051023 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.094 0.494 3.704 0.088 0.268 7 051025 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.095 0.418 3.663 0.095 0.218 8 051027 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.099 0.359 2.918 0.100 0.234 9 051031 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.117 0.975 5.556 0.115 0.184 10 051033 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.107 0.946 5.404 0.094 0.265 11 051035 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.094 0.221 3.180 0.090 0.217 12 051037 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.106 0.843 4.845 0.099 0.284 13 051041 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.077 0.290 3.863 0.082 0.099 14 051043 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.090 0.849 6.748 0.095 0.034 15 051045 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.100 2.572 14.201 0.084 0.263 16 051047 1903 1995 93 1.000 0.084 1.198 6.834 0.079 0.141 17 051051 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.077 0.191 2.828 0.068 0.365 18 051053 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.081 0.368 4.618 0.082 0.139 19 051055 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.099 1.312 5.231 0.078 0.381 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 051057 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.086 0.600 3.178 0.080 0.290 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 1.000 0.096 0.814 5.079 0.091 0.225 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.011 0.544 2.478 0.011 0.089 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.098 0.769 4.731 0.092 0.230 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.017 0.693 1.885 0.015 0.123 MINIMUM VALUE 92 1.000 0.077 0.191 2.828 0.068 0.034 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.088 0.393 3.683 0.082 0.153 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.105 1.086 5.568 0.098 0.276 MAXIMUM VALUE 132 1.000 0.117 2.572 14.201 0.115 0.381 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.359 0.138 0.010 0.056 3.257 0.011 0.737 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.011 SERIES 051023 AND 051047 93 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.737 SERIES 051031 AND 051037 124 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 83.80 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1874. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 3. 120. 120. 120. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.875 0.591 0.604 0.416 0.441 0.380 0.342 0.416 0.362 0.351 SDEV 0.025 0.169 0.144 0.211 0.196 0.180 0.194 0.194 0.193 0.232 SERR 0.015 0.015 0.013 0.019 0.014 0.013 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.017 EPS 0.986 0.958 0.963 0.932 0.941 0.925 0.912 0.934 0.919 0.915 NSS 9.9 16.0 17.2 19.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 190. RBAR 0.316 SDEV 0.229 SERR 0.017 EPS 0.902 NSS 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1864 1995 132 0.995 0.068 0.717 4.345 0.067 0.214 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.351 0.110 -0.042 38 94 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.52 1.00 1.06 1.58 7.80 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.59 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.212 0.029 0.025 0.018 -0.121 -0.060 0.004 0.059 0.039 0.123 PACF 0.212 -0.017 0.023 0.009 -0.133 -0.007 0.020 0.062 0.023 0.102 95% C.L. 0.174 0.182 0.182 0.182 0.182 0.184 0.185 0.185 0.186 0.186 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.049 0.222 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.128 0.005 0.024 0.015 -0.104 -0.028 -0.015 0.110 0.049 0.164 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.128 2 0.129 -0.012 3 0.130 -0.015 0.026 4 0.129 -0.015 0.024 0.009 5 0.130 -0.012 0.023 0.023 -0.108 6 0.130 -0.012 0.023 0.023 -0.108 -0.002 7 0.130 -0.014 0.023 0.024 -0.108 0.000 -0.013 8 0.132 -0.014 0.036 0.021 -0.111 0.002 -0.029 0.122 9 0.129 -0.013 0.036 0.023 -0.112 0.001 -0.029 0.118 0.025 10 0.125 -0.031 0.041 0.023 -0.095 -0.003 -0.034 0.120 0.005 0.152 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 673.03 672.86 674.84 676.76 678.75 679.19 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 681.19 683.16 683.19 685.11 684.01 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.128 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.63 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.66 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.128 0.016 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 051011 1 0.023 0.145 2 051013 1 0.034 0.165 3 051015 1 0.053 0.230 4 051017 1 0.072 0.230 5 051021 1 0.119 0.345 6 051023 1 0.078 0.272 7 051025 1 0.058 0.219 8 051027 1 0.066 0.237 9 051031 1 0.039 0.192 10 051033 1 0.073 0.268 11 051035 1 0.049 0.219 12 051037 1 0.093 0.286 13 051041 1 0.055 0.100 14 051043 1 0.003 0.034 15 051045 1 0.070 0.264 16 051047 1 0.063 0.158 17 051051 1 0.143 0.376 18 051053 1 0.080 0.148 19 051055 1 0.151 0.384 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 051057 1 0.091 0.300 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.071 0.229 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.037 0.089 MEDIAN 1 0.068 0.230 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.035 0.117 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.003 0.034 LOWER HINGE 1 0.051 0.162 UPPER HINGE 1 0.086 0.279 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.151 0.384 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 051011 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.104 1.215 5.949 0.106 0.006 2 051013 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.104 0.610 3.735 0.116 0.014 3 051015 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.099 0.685 3.899 0.109 -0.001 4 051017 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.104 1.285 6.469 0.106 -0.032 5 051021 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.092 0.760 5.340 0.100 -0.009 6 051023 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.090 0.373 3.546 0.099 0.014 7 051025 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.092 0.381 3.513 0.105 -0.022 8 051027 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.097 0.439 2.644 0.112 -0.022 9 051031 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.115 1.011 5.647 0.127 0.000 10 051033 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.103 0.814 4.860 0.105 -0.007 11 051035 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.091 0.239 3.155 0.099 -0.008 12 051037 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.102 0.780 4.385 0.112 -0.031 13 051041 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.076 0.194 3.803 0.088 -0.021 14 051043 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.090 0.874 7.000 0.096 -0.001 15 051045 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.096 2.901 17.366 0.095 -0.006 16 051047 1903 1995 93 1.000 0.083 1.109 6.608 0.087 -0.045 17 051051 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.071 0.180 2.823 0.081 0.006 18 051053 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.080 0.372 4.490 0.090 -0.043 19 051055 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.091 0.778 4.402 0.097 -0.028 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 051057 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.082 0.492 3.215 0.092 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 1.000 0.093 0.775 5.142 0.101 -0.012 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.011 0.600 3.155 0.011 0.018 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.092 0.723 4.393 0.100 -0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.016 0.566 2.269 0.014 0.025 MINIMUM VALUE 92 1.000 0.071 0.180 2.644 0.081 -0.045 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.087 0.377 3.529 0.094 -0.025 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.102 0.942 5.798 0.107 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 132 1.000 0.115 2.901 17.366 0.127 0.014 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.380 0.123 0.009 0.249 3.785 0.025 0.748 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.025 SERIES 051015 AND 051043 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.748 SERIES 051031 AND 051037 124 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 83.80 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1874. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 3. 120. 120. 120. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.813 0.584 0.590 0.434 0.507 0.434 0.356 0.424 0.376 0.356 SDEV 0.039 0.157 0.145 0.214 0.169 0.164 0.178 0.190 0.190 0.220 SERR 0.022 0.014 0.013 0.020 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.014 0.014 0.016 EPS 0.977 0.957 0.961 0.937 0.954 0.939 0.917 0.936 0.923 0.917 NSS 9.9 16.0 17.2 19.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 190. RBAR 0.332 SDEV 0.232 SERR 0.017 EPS 0.909 NSS 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1864 1995 132 0.996 0.065 0.637 4.104 0.073 -0.003 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.346 0.107 -0.041 39 93 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.50 1.00 1.08 1.58 6.78 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.75 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 -0.030 0.011 0.035 -0.127 -0.037 -0.003 0.076 -0.003 0.149 PACF -0.003 -0.030 0.011 0.035 -0.126 -0.036 -0.011 0.076 0.007 0.143 95% C.L. 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.177 0.177 0.177 0.178 0.178 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.030 0.011 0.035 -0.127 -0.037 -0.003 0.076 -0.002 0.149 PACF 0.000 -0.030 0.011 0.034 -0.127 -0.036 -0.011 0.076 0.007 0.143 95% C.L. 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.177 0.177 0.177 0.178 0.178 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1864 1995 132 0.996 0.066 0.689 4.200 0.068 0.125 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.124 -0.012 0.011 0.019 -0.127 -0.052 0.000 0.076 0.025 0.137 PACF 0.124 -0.028 0.017 0.016 -0.133 -0.019 0.004 0.079 0.013 0.126 95% C.L. 0.174 0.177 0.177 0.177 0.177 0.180 0.180 0.180 0.181 0.181 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.017 0.129 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES