RUN: 4DIG001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM046N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM046N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 027 1 Sirnitz SW (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_MINIMUM PCAB - 027 2 Germany Norway spruce 930 4748-745 1844 1995 - 027 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 027115 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1923 1927 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 027101 1845 1995 151 0.251 0.026 0.457 3.034 0.072 0.549 2 027103 1845 1995 151 0.228 0.026 0.436 3.021 0.084 0.556 3 027105 1845 1995 151 0.258 0.032 1.056 5.124 0.078 0.643 4 027107 1845 1995 151 0.234 0.025 0.121 3.290 0.071 0.594 5 027111 1846 1995 150 0.215 0.040 0.203 2.345 0.090 0.811 6 027113 1846 1995 150 0.215 0.034 -0.076 2.547 0.080 0.773 7 027115 1846 1995 150 0.205 0.034 0.418 2.924 0.101 0.652 8 027117 1846 1995 150 0.211 0.041 0.429 2.572 0.092 0.781 9 027121 1845 1995 151 0.216 0.034 0.072 3.828 0.108 0.599 10 027123 1845 1995 151 0.194 0.031 -0.026 6.928 0.122 0.404 11 027125 1845 1995 151 0.204 0.034 1.116 8.634 0.110 0.511 12 027127 1845 1995 151 0.230 0.023 0.909 4.708 0.085 0.309 13 027131 1851 1995 145 0.267 0.027 0.150 2.702 0.080 0.513 14 027133 1846 1995 150 0.252 0.030 0.429 2.997 0.075 0.623 15 027135 1846 1995 150 0.286 0.028 0.809 4.178 0.068 0.554 16 027137 1846 1995 150 0.280 0.030 -0.049 2.495 0.065 0.700 17 027151 1844 1995 152 0.293 0.028 -0.093 3.753 0.072 0.507 18 027153 1844 1995 152 0.281 0.031 0.408 3.331 0.077 0.570 19 027155 1844 1995 152 0.276 0.027 0.376 3.838 0.077 0.430 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 027157 1844 1995 152 0.277 0.030 0.059 3.096 0.078 0.568 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1844 TO 1995 152 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 150 0.244 0.031 0.360 3.767 0.084 0.582 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.032 0.005 0.370 1.582 0.015 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 151 0.243 0.030 0.392 3.193 0.079 0.569 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 1 0.062 0.007 0.381 1.195 0.017 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 145 0.194 0.023 -0.093 2.345 0.065 0.309 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 0.215 0.027 0.066 2.813 0.074 0.512 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 151 0.276 0.034 0.447 4.008 0.091 0.648 MAXIMUM VALUE 152 0.293 0.041 1.116 8.634 0.122 0.811 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.356 0.197 0.014 -0.085 2.609 -0.133 0.795 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.133 SERIES 027111 AND 027125 150 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.795 SERIES 027133 AND 027135 150 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.60 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1869. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.783 0.549 0.421 0.324 SDEV 0.059 0.172 0.189 0.230 SERR 0.024 0.012 0.014 0.017 EPS 0.986 0.961 0.936 0.905 NSS 19.4 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1844 1995 152 0.245 0.019 0.550 3.240 0.057 0.505 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.035 0.016 0.037 24 128 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.42 1.00 1.02 1.44 2.80 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.72 0.86 0.91 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 151. 1. 145. 150. 151. 152. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.501 0.387 0.261 0.227 0.091 0.125 0.031 -0.034 -0.103 -0.126 PACF 0.501 0.181 0.016 0.063 -0.100 0.083 -0.071 -0.090 -0.072 -0.062 95% C.L. 0.162 0.199 0.218 0.226 0.232 0.233 0.234 0.235 0.235 0.236 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.285 0.419 0.180 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 027101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027609 0.27177748 2 027103 1 0.03866717 0.02329546 0.00000000 0.21700753 3 027105 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00033907 0.28404769 4 027107 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023590 0.25229934 5 027111 1 0.16041239 0.00466749 0.00000000 0.09992003 6 027113 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043198 0.24728143 7 027115 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043419 0.23835540 8 027117 1 0.15535091 0.00670188 0.00000000 0.11294999 9 027121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013527 0.20581192 10 027123 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021300 0.17778543 11 027125 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028473 0.18233378 12 027127 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005246 0.23385431 13 027131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010908 0.25879598 14 027133 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003979 0.24939597 15 027135 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003337 0.28368053 16 027137 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022691 0.29719821 17 027151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015931 0.28110230 18 027153 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010019 0.27312478 19 027155 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009507 0.26891163 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 027157 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015700 0.26476559 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 027101 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.089 0.459 3.221 0.072 0.428 2 027103 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.105 0.099 2.641 0.084 0.479 3 027105 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.107 0.855 4.482 0.077 0.513 4 027107 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.099 0.284 3.238 0.071 0.527 5 027111 1846 1995 150 1.000 0.152 0.226 2.960 0.090 0.714 6 027113 1846 1995 150 1.000 0.133 -0.049 2.814 0.080 0.682 7 027115 1846 1995 150 1.000 0.132 0.248 3.213 0.099 0.478 8 027117 1846 1995 150 1.000 0.137 -0.056 3.688 0.091 0.591 9 027121 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.157 0.028 3.639 0.107 0.583 10 027123 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.153 -0.008 6.319 0.121 0.335 11 027125 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.154 1.182 7.599 0.109 0.453 12 027127 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.101 0.899 4.894 0.084 0.299 13 027131 1851 1995 145 1.000 0.099 0.142 2.687 0.079 0.496 14 027133 1846 1995 150 1.000 0.118 0.416 3.022 0.075 0.616 15 027135 1846 1995 150 1.000 0.098 0.813 4.236 0.067 0.546 16 027137 1846 1995 150 1.000 0.103 -0.073 2.383 0.065 0.665 17 027151 1844 1995 152 1.000 0.094 0.184 3.714 0.072 0.470 18 027153 1844 1995 152 1.000 0.111 0.478 3.155 0.077 0.560 19 027155 1844 1995 152 1.000 0.097 0.425 3.889 0.076 0.413 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 027157 1844 1995 152 1.000 0.107 0.229 3.034 0.078 0.538 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 1.000 0.117 0.339 3.741 0.084 0.519 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.023 0.356 1.287 0.015 0.108 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.107 0.239 3.229 0.078 0.520 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 1 0.000 0.036 0.405 1.072 0.017 0.126 MINIMUM VALUE 145 1.000 0.089 -0.073 2.383 0.065 0.299 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.099 0.063 2.991 0.073 0.462 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.135 0.468 4.062 0.091 0.587 MAXIMUM VALUE 152 1.000 0.157 1.182 7.599 0.121 0.714 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 027101 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 027103 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 027105 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 027107 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 027111 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 027113 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 027115 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 027117 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 027121 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 027123 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 027125 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 027127 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 027131 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 027133 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 027135 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 027137 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 027151 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 027153 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 027155 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 027157 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 027101 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.088 0.476 3.243 0.072 0.408 2 027103 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.103 0.141 2.704 0.084 0.463 3 027105 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.097 1.533 7.815 0.078 0.411 4 027107 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.084 0.283 3.050 0.071 0.349 5 027111 1846 1995 150 0.998 0.127 0.192 3.165 0.090 0.583 6 027113 1846 1995 150 0.999 0.106 -0.058 3.234 0.080 0.508 7 027115 1846 1995 150 0.999 0.118 0.378 2.924 0.099 0.338 8 027117 1846 1995 150 1.000 0.133 -0.070 3.984 0.091 0.563 9 027121 1845 1995 151 0.999 0.140 0.162 3.674 0.107 0.476 10 027123 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.150 0.008 6.667 0.121 0.305 11 027125 1845 1995 151 0.999 0.141 1.222 8.009 0.110 0.350 12 027127 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.099 0.994 5.158 0.084 0.274 13 027131 1851 1995 145 1.000 0.093 0.242 2.752 0.079 0.431 14 027133 1846 1995 150 1.000 0.112 0.444 3.173 0.075 0.579 15 027135 1846 1995 150 1.000 0.096 0.818 4.372 0.067 0.523 16 027137 1846 1995 150 1.000 0.095 0.067 2.236 0.065 0.602 17 027151 1844 1995 152 1.000 0.083 0.216 3.694 0.072 0.320 18 027153 1844 1995 152 1.000 0.098 0.656 3.195 0.077 0.444 19 027155 1844 1995 152 1.000 0.089 0.445 3.565 0.076 0.299 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 027157 1844 1995 152 1.000 0.101 0.339 2.984 0.078 0.476 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 1.000 0.108 0.424 3.980 0.084 0.435 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.020 0.429 1.658 0.015 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.100 0.311 3.238 0.078 0.437 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 1 0.000 0.028 0.415 1.161 0.017 0.172 MINIMUM VALUE 145 0.998 0.083 -0.070 2.236 0.065 0.274 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 0.999 0.094 0.151 3.017 0.073 0.344 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.123 0.566 4.178 0.091 0.516 MAXIMUM VALUE 152 1.000 0.150 1.533 8.009 0.121 0.602 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.435 0.121 0.009 0.439 3.276 0.154 0.794 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.154 SERIES 027105 AND 027123 151 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.794 SERIES 027133 AND 027135 150 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.60 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1869. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.755 0.590 0.475 0.331 SDEV 0.064 0.123 0.143 0.183 SERR 0.026 0.009 0.010 0.013 EPS 0.984 0.966 0.948 0.908 NSS 19.4 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1844 1995 152 1.001 0.073 0.421 3.285 0.058 0.422 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.281 0.072 0.003 60 92 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.59 1.00 1.12 1.71 6.64 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.74 0.86 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.419 0.306 0.141 0.115 -0.041 -0.001 -0.102 -0.181 -0.253 -0.283 PACF 0.419 0.159 -0.042 0.036 -0.130 0.037 -0.094 -0.150 -0.121 -0.136 95% C.L. 0.162 0.189 0.201 0.204 0.205 0.206 0.206 0.207 0.211 0.219 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.204 0.356 0.163 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.388 0.275 0.133 0.084 -0.043 0.035 -0.089 -0.158 -0.233 -0.281 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.388 2 0.331 0.147 3 0.334 0.153 -0.018 4 0.334 0.152 -0.020 0.005 5 0.334 0.150 -0.003 0.041 -0.106 6 0.343 0.146 -0.003 0.029 -0.133 0.082 7 0.352 0.131 0.000 0.028 -0.117 0.121 -0.115 8 0.337 0.147 -0.015 0.032 -0.117 0.139 -0.068 -0.132 9 0.320 0.138 0.003 0.017 -0.113 0.137 -0.049 -0.088 -0.130 10 0.300 0.124 -0.005 0.038 -0.130 0.139 -0.049 -0.067 -0.081 -0.155 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 877.43 854.64 853.33 855.28 857.28 857.56 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 858.53 858.52 857.84 857.23 855.54 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.331 0.147 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 16.88 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 120.30 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.331 0.256 0.133 0.082 0.047 0.027 0.016 0.009 0.005 0.0032 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 027101 2 0.197 0.344 0.164 2 027103 2 0.247 0.375 0.193 3 027105 2 0.240 0.323 0.218 4 027107 2 0.138 0.333 0.061 5 027111 2 0.363 0.496 0.158 6 027113 2 0.305 0.396 0.232 7 027115 2 0.125 0.312 0.090 8 027117 2 0.351 0.457 0.193 9 027121 2 0.268 0.403 0.164 10 027123 2 0.116 0.265 0.145 11 027125 2 0.164 0.284 0.192 12 027127 2 0.091 0.252 0.091 13 027131 2 0.260 0.334 0.227 14 027133 2 0.373 0.508 0.150 15 027135 2 0.323 0.467 0.154 16 027137 2 0.413 0.483 0.209 17 027151 2 0.134 0.280 0.150 18 027153 2 0.213 0.424 0.051 19 027155 2 0.113 0.258 0.150 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 027157 2 0.235 0.474 0.020 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.233 0.373 0.151 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.098 0.086 0.060 MEDIAN 2 0.238 0.359 0.156 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.178 0.164 0.075 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.091 0.252 0.020 LOWER HINGE 2 0.136 0.298 0.118 UPPER HINGE 2 0.314 0.462 0.193 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.413 0.508 0.232 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 027101 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.079 0.621 3.771 0.086 0.011 2 027103 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.090 0.180 3.040 0.101 -0.006 3 027105 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.086 1.072 6.406 0.091 0.042 4 027107 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.079 0.531 3.686 0.085 0.001 5 027111 1846 1995 150 1.000 0.102 0.649 4.679 0.112 0.004 6 027113 1846 1995 150 1.000 0.088 0.196 3.436 0.099 -0.014 7 027115 1846 1995 150 1.000 0.110 0.601 3.645 0.115 -0.007 8 027117 1846 1995 150 1.000 0.107 0.468 6.321 0.111 0.012 9 027121 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.121 0.283 4.059 0.131 -0.029 10 027123 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.141 -0.132 8.502 0.138 0.000 11 027125 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.129 1.467 9.133 0.127 -0.020 12 027127 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.095 1.103 5.382 0.097 -0.010 13 027131 1851 1995 145 1.000 0.082 0.270 2.936 0.094 -0.043 14 027133 1846 1995 150 1.000 0.088 0.093 3.776 0.099 -0.011 15 027135 1846 1995 150 1.000 0.078 0.589 3.436 0.084 -0.021 16 027137 1846 1995 150 1.000 0.073 0.190 2.567 0.081 0.023 17 027151 1844 1995 152 1.000 0.077 0.351 3.351 0.083 0.003 18 027153 1844 1995 152 1.000 0.088 0.167 3.826 0.097 -0.008 19 027155 1844 1995 152 1.000 0.084 0.377 3.886 0.088 -0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 027157 1844 1995 152 1.000 0.088 0.386 3.285 0.095 -0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 1.000 0.094 0.473 4.456 0.101 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.019 0.383 1.807 0.017 0.018 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.088 0.382 3.773 0.097 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 1 0.000 0.024 0.418 1.637 0.025 0.016 MINIMUM VALUE 145 1.000 0.073 -0.132 2.567 0.081 -0.043 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.080 0.193 3.394 0.087 -0.012 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.104 0.611 5.031 0.112 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 152 1.000 0.141 1.467 9.133 0.138 0.042 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.460 0.099 0.007 0.448 3.537 0.154 0.781 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.154 SERIES 027105 AND 027123 151 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.781 SERIES 027125 AND 027127 151 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.60 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1869. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.727 0.610 0.523 0.407 SDEV 0.061 0.105 0.111 0.134 SERR 0.025 0.008 0.008 0.010 EPS 0.981 0.969 0.956 0.932 NSS 19.4 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1844 1995 152 1.001 0.065 0.763 4.195 0.069 -0.010 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.330 0.081 -0.018 65 87 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.72 1.00 1.08 1.80 12.06 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.68 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.010 0.009 -0.034 0.059 -0.116 0.078 -0.033 -0.069 -0.101 -0.150 PACF -0.010 0.009 -0.034 0.058 -0.115 0.076 -0.028 -0.082 -0.084 -0.180 95% C.L. 0.162 0.162 0.162 0.162 0.163 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.167 0.169 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.001 -0.033 0.057 -0.114 0.077 -0.031 -0.069 -0.101 -0.153 PACF 0.000 -0.001 -0.033 0.057 -0.114 0.078 -0.030 -0.080 -0.084 -0.182 95% C.L. 0.162 0.162 0.162 0.162 0.163 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.167 0.168 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 0.000 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1844 1995 152 1.001 0.071 0.544 3.398 0.058 0.385 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.382 0.264 0.105 0.085 -0.065 0.002 -0.102 -0.167 -0.223 -0.251 PACF 0.382 0.138 -0.042 0.031 -0.128 0.054 -0.098 -0.135 -0.103 -0.136 95% C.L. 0.162 0.184 0.194 0.196 0.197 0.197 0.197 0.199 0.202 0.209 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.169 0.332 0.145 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES