RUN: fran FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN017X.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN017X.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 259 1 Nizza, Foret dAillon DENSITY_MAXIMUM ABAL - 259 2 France silver fir, European fir 1700 4353-720 1838 1975 - 259 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 259010 1935 1975 41 0.841 0.070 -1.108 3.673 0.080 0.281 2 259020 1876 1975 100 0.865 0.056 -0.397 3.019 0.051 0.440 3 259030 1895 1975 81 0.780 0.067 -0.593 3.336 0.083 0.281 4 259040 1849 1975 127 0.853 0.070 0.173 2.770 0.065 0.465 5 259050 1848 1975 128 0.892 0.052 -0.719 3.594 0.051 0.351 6 259060 1844 1975 132 0.874 0.059 -0.337 2.921 0.056 0.437 7 259070 1860 1975 116 0.925 0.054 -0.822 4.008 0.041 0.547 8 259080 1861 1975 115 0.881 0.050 -0.649 3.699 0.050 0.349 9 259090 1908 1975 68 0.914 0.062 -0.751 3.712 0.043 0.701 10 259100 1838 1975 138 0.897 0.046 -0.348 2.858 0.045 0.353 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 10 FROM 1838 TO 1975 138 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 105 0.872 0.058 -0.555 3.359 0.056 0.420 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.042 0.008 0.349 0.437 0.015 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 0.878 0.057 -0.621 3.465 0.051 0.395 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.044 0.015 0.403 0.777 0.020 0.116 MINIMUM VALUE 41 0.780 0.046 -1.108 2.770 0.041 0.281 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 81 0.853 0.052 -0.751 2.921 0.045 0.349 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 128 0.897 0.067 -0.348 3.699 0.065 0.465 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 0.925 0.070 0.173 4.008 0.083 0.701 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.418 0.139 0.021 -0.473 2.932 0.098 0.686 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.098 SERIES 259010 AND 259090 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.686 SERIES 259070 AND 259090 68 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.61 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. CORR 6. 10. 15. 21. 21. 28. 36. 36. 36. 45. RBAR 0.711 0.466 0.545 0.729 0.649 0.445 0.526 0.540 0.445 0.307 SDEV 0.140 0.294 0.210 0.103 0.150 0.205 0.183 0.207 0.349 0.242 SERR 0.057 0.093 0.054 0.023 0.033 0.039 0.030 0.034 0.058 0.036 EPS 0.924 0.843 0.889 0.951 0.935 0.873 0.909 0.916 0.887 0.816 NSS 4.9 6.2 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.6 9.0 9.2 9.8 10.0 YEAR 1960. CORR 45. RBAR 0.282 SDEV 0.239 SERR 0.036 EPS 0.797 NSS 10.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 0.879 0.043 -0.393 3.576 0.046 0.276 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.196 -0.095 0.134 36 102 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 2.16 1.01 1.07 3.23 24.61 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.10 0.00 0.82 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 116. 47. 41. 81. 128. 138. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.274 0.271 0.186 0.133 0.028 0.063 0.050 -0.127 0.044 -0.090 PACF 0.274 0.212 0.079 0.025 -0.069 0.027 0.031 -0.177 0.099 -0.082 95% C.L. 0.170 0.183 0.194 0.199 0.202 0.202 0.202 0.203 0.205 0.205 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.129 0.215 0.225 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 259010 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00163589 0.80637807 2 259020 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00047813 0.88894546 3 259030 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00118925 0.82838887 4 259040 1 0.15914255 0.06696828 0.00000000 0.83443117 5 259050 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028589 0.91093993 6 259060 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021938 0.88905853 7 259070 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008342 0.92029238 8 259080 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026095 0.86564761 9 259090 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00190022 0.97908694 10 259100 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00034056 0.87299800 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 259010 1935 1975 41 1.000 0.080 -1.191 4.103 0.078 0.210 2 259020 1876 1975 100 1.000 0.062 -0.487 2.807 0.051 0.385 3 259030 1895 1975 81 1.000 0.079 -0.275 3.226 0.081 0.155 4 259040 1849 1975 127 1.000 0.072 -0.005 2.898 0.065 0.292 5 259050 1848 1975 128 1.000 0.057 -0.671 3.434 0.050 0.324 6 259060 1844 1975 132 1.000 0.066 -0.460 3.279 0.056 0.416 7 259070 1860 1975 116 1.000 0.059 -0.843 4.182 0.041 0.540 8 259080 1861 1975 115 1.000 0.056 -0.716 4.127 0.049 0.317 9 259090 1908 1975 68 1.000 0.054 -0.193 3.239 0.042 0.543 10 259100 1838 1975 138 1.000 0.049 -0.371 3.109 0.045 0.284 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 105 1.000 0.063 -0.521 3.440 0.056 0.346 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.011 0.345 0.514 0.014 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 1.000 0.060 -0.474 3.259 0.050 0.320 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.000 0.016 0.441 0.994 0.020 0.132 MINIMUM VALUE 41 1.000 0.049 -1.191 2.807 0.041 0.155 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 81 1.000 0.056 -0.716 3.109 0.045 0.284 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.072 -0.275 4.103 0.065 0.416 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.080 -0.005 4.182 0.081 0.543 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 259010 -67 27 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 259020 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 259030 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 259040 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 259050 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 259060 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 259070 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 259080 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 259090 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 259100 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 259010 1935 1975 41 1.000 0.074 -1.298 4.426 0.078 0.072 2 259020 1876 1975 100 1.000 0.051 -0.395 2.943 0.051 0.131 3 259030 1895 1975 81 1.000 0.072 -0.214 3.744 0.081 -0.033 4 259040 1849 1975 127 1.000 0.067 -0.030 2.738 0.065 0.190 5 259050 1848 1975 128 1.000 0.055 -0.742 3.659 0.050 0.283 6 259060 1844 1975 132 1.000 0.058 -0.153 3.030 0.056 0.249 7 259070 1860 1975 116 1.000 0.045 -0.430 3.099 0.041 0.279 8 259080 1861 1975 115 1.000 0.052 -0.607 3.812 0.049 0.229 9 259090 1908 1975 68 1.000 0.040 -0.144 2.665 0.043 0.147 10 259100 1838 1975 138 1.000 0.045 -0.404 3.375 0.045 0.147 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 105 1.000 0.056 -0.442 3.349 0.056 0.169 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.012 0.372 0.557 0.014 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 1.000 0.054 -0.399 3.237 0.050 0.168 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.000 0.022 0.454 0.800 0.020 0.119 MINIMUM VALUE 41 1.000 0.040 -1.298 2.665 0.041 -0.033 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 81 1.000 0.045 -0.607 2.943 0.045 0.131 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.067 -0.153 3.744 0.065 0.249 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.074 -0.030 4.426 0.081 0.283 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.466 0.134 0.020 -0.236 2.419 0.200 0.726 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.200 SERIES 259030 AND 259100 81 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.726 SERIES 259040 AND 259060 127 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.61 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. CORR 6. 10. 15. 21. 21. 28. 36. 36. 36. 45. RBAR 0.788 0.596 0.626 0.770 0.673 0.443 0.536 0.541 0.490 0.308 SDEV 0.081 0.149 0.125 0.068 0.136 0.209 0.150 0.222 0.315 0.221 SERR 0.033 0.047 0.032 0.015 0.030 0.039 0.025 0.037 0.053 0.033 EPS 0.949 0.901 0.918 0.960 0.942 0.872 0.912 0.916 0.904 0.816 NSS 4.9 6.2 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.6 9.0 9.2 9.8 10.0 YEAR 1960. CORR 45. RBAR 0.264 SDEV 0.227 SERR 0.034 EPS 0.782 NSS 10.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 1.000 0.041 -0.327 3.525 0.044 0.084 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.161 -0.064 0.099 30 108 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.40 1.00 1.08 1.48 11.72 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.08 0.00 0.83 0.91 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.084 0.116 0.060 -0.015 -0.105 -0.054 -0.011 -0.243 -0.032 -0.145 PACF 0.084 0.110 0.043 -0.036 -0.115 -0.038 0.024 -0.229 -0.002 -0.114 95% C.L. 0.170 0.171 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.176 0.177 0.177 0.186 0.186 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.037 0.135 0.109 -0.039 -0.131 -0.136 -0.057 -0.281 0.070 -0.115 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.037 2 0.032 0.133 3 0.018 0.130 0.102 4 0.025 0.138 0.103 -0.064 5 0.014 0.155 0.125 -0.060 -0.162 6 -0.008 0.147 0.142 -0.039 -0.160 -0.136 7 -0.008 0.147 0.142 -0.039 -0.160 -0.136 -0.002 8 -0.009 0.116 0.106 -0.048 -0.128 -0.103 -0.004 -0.226 9 0.017 0.116 0.117 -0.033 -0.123 -0.114 -0.017 -0.225 0.111 10 0.026 0.097 0.116 -0.043 -0.133 -0.117 -0.007 -0.215 0.113 -0.085 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 373.18 375.00 374.52 375.09 376.52 374.84 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 374.27 376.27 371.04 371.32 372.32 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 8 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.009 0.116 0.106 -0.048 -0.128 -0.103 -0.004 -0.226 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 12.32 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 114.05 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 8) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.009 0.116 0.104 -0.036 -0.103 -0.099 -0.038 -0.272 -0.012 -.0405 -0.028 0.031 0.055 0.054 0.027 0.080 0.007 0.008 0.002 -.0182 -0.025 -0.024 -0.013 -0.023 -0.002 0.000 0.003 0.009 0.010 0.0094 0.005 0.007 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.003 -0.002 -.0016 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 259010 8 0.343 -0.036 -0.282 -0.117 -0.528 -0.246 -0.243 0.054 -0.346 2 259020 8 0.176 0.148 0.110 0.176 -0.009 -0.176 0.074 0.193 -0.192 3 259030 8 0.105 -0.023 -0.040 0.146 0.015 -0.002 -0.207 0.036 -0.121 4 259040 8 0.164 0.115 0.254 0.118 -0.073 -0.069 -0.071 0.040 -0.167 5 259050 8 0.212 0.210 0.221 0.040 0.033 -0.069 0.065 0.062 -0.286 6 259060 8 0.185 0.176 0.190 0.068 0.071 -0.058 -0.024 0.055 -0.260 7 259070 8 0.142 0.253 0.082 0.162 -0.037 -0.132 -0.025 0.101 -0.081 8 259080 8 0.192 0.149 0.100 0.109 0.088 -0.086 0.059 -0.093 -0.278 9 259090 8 0.233 0.041 0.037 0.221 -0.109 0.119 -0.133 -0.206 -0.268 10 259100 8 0.045 0.150 0.017 0.040 -0.013 0.041 -0.096 0.048 -0.084 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 8 0.180 0.118 0.069 0.096 -0.056 -0.068 -0.060 0.029 -0.208 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.079 0.096 0.154 0.095 0.176 0.105 0.112 0.108 0.093 MEDIAN 8 0.180 0.148 0.091 0.113 -0.011 -0.069 -0.048 0.051 -0.226 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.070 0.135 0.174 0.121 0.106 0.130 0.193 0.027 0.157 MINIMUM VALUE 8 0.045 -0.036 -0.282 -0.117 -0.528 -0.246 -0.243 -0.206 -0.346 LOWER HINGE 8 0.142 0.041 0.017 0.040 -0.073 -0.132 -0.133 0.036 -0.278 UPPER HINGE 8 0.212 0.176 0.190 0.162 0.033 -0.002 0.059 0.062 -0.121 MAXIMUM VALUE 8 0.343 0.253 0.254 0.221 0.088 0.119 0.074 0.193 -0.081 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 259010 1935 1975 41 1.000 0.060 -1.227 3.491 0.065 -0.025 2 259020 1876 1975 100 1.000 0.047 -0.105 3.051 0.052 0.005 3 259030 1895 1975 81 1.000 0.069 -0.164 2.859 0.077 0.023 4 259040 1849 1975 127 1.000 0.061 -0.049 3.308 0.065 0.004 5 259050 1848 1975 128 1.000 0.049 -0.525 3.675 0.053 0.017 6 259060 1844 1975 132 1.000 0.052 -0.171 2.784 0.059 0.000 7 259070 1860 1975 116 1.000 0.042 -0.114 2.851 0.045 0.011 8 259080 1861 1975 115 1.000 0.047 -0.619 4.108 0.051 0.013 9 259090 1908 1975 68 1.000 0.035 -0.279 3.496 0.039 0.015 10 259100 1838 1975 138 1.000 0.044 -0.425 3.495 0.048 0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 105 1.000 0.050 -0.368 3.312 0.055 0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.010 0.358 0.426 0.011 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 1.000 0.048 -0.225 3.400 0.052 0.008 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.000 0.016 0.411 0.637 0.017 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 41 1.000 0.035 -1.227 2.784 0.039 -0.025 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 81 1.000 0.044 -0.525 2.859 0.048 0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.060 -0.114 3.496 0.065 0.015 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.069 -0.049 4.108 0.077 0.023 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.459 0.139 0.021 -0.555 3.053 0.092 0.715 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.092 SERIES 259010 AND 259100 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.715 SERIES 259060 AND 259080 115 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.61 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. CORR 6. 10. 15. 21. 21. 28. 36. 36. 36. 45. RBAR 0.651 0.677 0.688 0.749 0.613 0.424 0.564 0.539 0.419 0.315 SDEV 0.137 0.078 0.111 0.082 0.123 0.194 0.131 0.183 0.236 0.226 SERR 0.056 0.025 0.029 0.018 0.027 0.037 0.022 0.031 0.039 0.034 EPS 0.902 0.928 0.937 0.956 0.926 0.863 0.921 0.915 0.876 0.821 NSS 4.9 6.2 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.6 9.0 9.2 9.8 10.0 YEAR 1960. CORR 45. RBAR 0.346 SDEV 0.232 SERR 0.035 EPS 0.841 NSS 10.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 1.000 0.038 -0.391 3.657 0.043 -0.081 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.066 -0.025 0.057 29 109 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.49 1.38 1.00 1.06 2.44 15.16 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.86 0.11 0.00 0.81 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.080 -0.028 -0.107 -0.041 -0.038 0.027 0.026 -0.044 0.072 -0.123 PACF -0.080 -0.034 -0.113 -0.062 -0.057 0.002 0.013 -0.054 0.065 -0.114 95% C.L. 0.170 0.171 0.171 0.173 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.175 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 -0.010 -0.008 0.006 -0.003 -0.008 -0.023 -0.015 0.057 -0.126 PACF 0.003 -0.010 -0.008 0.006 -0.003 -0.007 -0.023 -0.015 0.057 -0.128 95% C.L. 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.171 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 8 0.005 0.003 -0.010 -0.008 0.006 -0.004 -0.008 -0.024 -0.016 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 1.000 0.040 -0.205 3.508 0.043 0.044 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.044 0.149 0.120 -0.041 -0.129 -0.142 -0.082 -0.294 0.003 -0.117 PACF 0.044 0.148 0.110 -0.072 -0.167 -0.141 -0.022 -0.232 0.047 -0.069 95% C.L. 0.170 0.171 0.174 0.177 0.177 0.180 0.183 0.184 0.197 0.197 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.08 MINUTES