RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FINL015W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FINL015W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 531 1 Koliberg WIDTH_RING PCAB - 531 2 Finland Norway spruce 300 6306-2529 1818 1978 - 531 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 531011 1880 1978 99 1.436 0.448 0.837 3.414 0.164 0.737 2 531012 1861 1978 118 1.429 0.546 0.614 2.545 0.171 0.820 3 531021 1837 1978 142 1.456 0.577 1.673 5.645 0.158 0.803 4 531022 1837 1978 142 1.492 0.752 2.191 7.376 0.164 0.853 5 531031 1866 1978 113 1.640 0.706 0.657 2.369 0.138 0.912 6 531032 1871 1978 108 1.814 0.742 1.091 3.958 0.139 0.879 7 531041 1855 1978 124 1.304 0.430 0.998 3.424 0.161 0.785 8 531042 1877 1978 102 1.647 0.513 0.625 3.812 0.176 0.733 9 531051 1869 1978 110 1.809 0.659 0.223 2.093 0.167 0.837 10 531052 1869 1978 110 1.631 0.476 0.172 2.221 0.168 0.779 11 531061 1840 1978 139 1.372 0.596 1.861 6.577 0.173 0.861 12 531062 1818 1978 161 1.179 0.426 0.729 2.898 0.174 0.822 13 531071 1819 1978 160 1.032 0.250 0.962 4.009 0.172 0.526 14 531072 1822 1978 157 1.328 0.309 0.348 3.217 0.160 0.612 15 531081 1838 1978 141 1.392 0.551 0.360 3.277 0.185 0.794 16 531082 1842 1978 137 1.140 0.543 0.430 2.663 0.183 0.843 17 531091 1852 1978 127 1.525 0.613 0.260 2.290 0.165 0.875 18 531092 1845 1978 134 1.502 0.607 0.850 5.132 0.174 0.770 19 531101 1863 1978 116 1.766 0.563 0.873 3.192 0.162 0.759 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 531102 1876 1978 103 1.618 0.543 0.879 3.323 0.158 0.812 21 531111 1862 1978 117 1.530 0.366 0.757 3.053 0.154 0.678 22 531112 1843 1978 136 1.630 0.550 1.112 4.193 0.167 0.778 23 531121 1827 1978 152 1.747 0.463 0.117 3.597 0.172 0.634 24 531122 1833 1978 146 1.483 0.566 1.756 5.727 0.165 0.852 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1818 TO 1978 161 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 1.496 0.533 0.849 3.750 0.165 0.781 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.206 0.124 0.554 1.400 0.011 0.092 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 130 1.497 0.548 0.797 3.368 0.166 0.798 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.254 0.146 0.649 1.321 0.012 0.099 MINIMUM VALUE 99 1.032 0.250 0.117 2.093 0.138 0.526 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 111 1.382 0.456 0.395 2.780 0.161 0.748 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 142 1.635 0.601 1.044 4.101 0.173 0.847 MAXIMUM VALUE 161 1.814 0.752 2.191 7.376 0.185 0.912 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.463 0.229 0.014 -0.354 2.694 -0.267 0.886 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.267 SERIES 531031 AND 531051 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.886 SERIES 531061 AND 531122 139 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 66. 190. 276. 276. RBAR 0.491 0.223 0.407 0.563 SDEV 0.276 0.308 0.199 0.157 SERR 0.034 0.022 0.012 0.009 EPS 0.948 0.871 0.943 0.969 NSS 18.8 23.5 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1818 1978 161 1.507 0.389 0.786 3.801 0.127 0.796 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.765 0.391 -0.140 53 108 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.27 1.00 1.12 1.39 2.88 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.08 0.00 0.89 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 130. 30. 99. 112. 142. 161. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.792 0.724 0.655 0.612 0.602 0.538 0.532 0.486 0.457 0.460 PACF 0.792 0.260 0.074 0.073 0.134 -0.065 0.089 -0.026 -0.003 0.090 95% C.L. 0.158 0.237 0.286 0.321 0.349 0.374 0.393 0.410 0.424 0.437 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.667 0.583 0.270 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 531011 1 1.35356879 0.03745104 0.00000000 1.08687329 2 531012 1 2.16507244 0.01017752 0.00000000 0.17512016 3 531021 1 2.64296770 0.08636829 0.00000000 1.24944937 4 531022 1 3.39460182 0.06240037 0.00000000 1.12054670 5 531031 1 2.36674595 0.01739425 0.00000000 0.61322224 6 531032 1 2.61151004 0.03745416 0.00000000 1.19103575 7 531041 1 1.41958904 0.03132501 0.00000000 0.95143455 8 531042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00926000 2.12414479 9 531051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00049852 1.83675897 10 531052 1 2.27787733 0.00754370 0.00000000 0.08914126 11 531061 1 2.41867495 0.05349335 0.00000000 1.05525792 12 531062 1 1.43511951 0.00875364 0.00000000 0.41333133 13 531071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010716 1.04031372 14 531072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00141749 1.43949783 15 531081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00867383 2.00768590 16 531082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01061736 1.87274361 17 531091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01353780 2.39114356 18 531092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01080899 2.23206925 19 531101 1 1.61375380 0.03178299 0.00000000 1.34561813 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 531102 1 1.68448997 0.02181512 0.00000000 0.95514059 21 531111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00271898 1.69016361 22 531112 1 1.25523913 0.09056931 0.00000000 1.53234613 23 531121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00428986 2.07521343 24 531122 1 1.96284509 0.03333159 0.00000000 1.08935046 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 531011 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.216 1.122 5.285 0.163 0.540 2 531012 1861 1978 118 1.001 0.241 0.433 3.337 0.170 0.600 3 531021 1837 1978 142 1.000 0.252 1.129 5.302 0.156 0.635 4 531022 1837 1978 142 1.000 0.199 0.602 3.986 0.162 0.493 5 531031 1866 1978 113 1.000 0.256 0.096 2.818 0.137 0.778 6 531032 1871 1978 108 1.000 0.218 0.498 3.778 0.137 0.690 7 531041 1855 1978 124 1.000 0.192 0.837 3.721 0.160 0.405 8 531042 1877 1978 102 0.997 0.259 0.891 3.990 0.175 0.604 9 531051 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.363 0.206 2.105 0.166 0.829 10 531052 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.195 0.004 2.625 0.167 0.422 11 531061 1840 1978 139 1.000 0.215 0.303 3.102 0.172 0.497 12 531062 1818 1978 161 1.000 0.249 0.529 3.078 0.174 0.609 13 531071 1819 1978 160 1.000 0.242 0.964 4.005 0.171 0.524 14 531072 1822 1978 157 1.000 0.225 0.105 2.858 0.159 0.593 15 531081 1838 1978 141 0.999 0.325 0.557 3.785 0.184 0.692 16 531082 1842 1978 137 1.004 0.330 0.363 2.615 0.181 0.702 17 531091 1852 1978 127 0.997 0.239 0.638 3.215 0.165 0.651 18 531092 1845 1978 134 0.994 0.277 0.897 4.106 0.173 0.654 19 531101 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.231 1.101 4.620 0.161 0.570 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 531102 1876 1978 103 1.000 0.215 0.656 3.667 0.156 0.536 21 531111 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.233 0.878 3.224 0.153 0.652 22 531112 1843 1978 136 1.000 0.324 1.712 6.575 0.166 0.745 23 531121 1827 1978 152 1.000 0.251 0.338 3.200 0.171 0.609 24 531122 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.178 0.089 2.649 0.164 0.318 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 1.000 0.247 0.623 3.652 0.164 0.598 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.002 0.047 0.417 1.014 0.011 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 130 1.000 0.240 0.580 3.502 0.165 0.607 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.000 0.042 0.573 1.029 0.013 0.142 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.994 0.178 0.004 2.105 0.137 0.318 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 111 1.000 0.216 0.321 2.968 0.159 0.530 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.257 0.894 3.998 0.172 0.672 MAXIMUM VALUE 161 1.004 0.363 1.712 6.575 0.184 0.829 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 531011 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 531012 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 531021 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 531022 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 531031 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 531032 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 531041 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 531042 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 531051 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 531052 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 531061 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 531062 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 531071 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 531072 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 531081 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 531082 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 531091 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 531092 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 531101 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 531102 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 531111 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 531112 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 531121 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 531122 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 531011 1880 1978 99 0.999 0.210 1.076 4.975 0.163 0.517 2 531012 1861 1978 118 0.997 0.216 0.529 3.714 0.170 0.501 3 531021 1837 1978 142 0.996 0.200 0.777 4.261 0.156 0.467 4 531022 1837 1978 142 0.999 0.187 0.555 4.077 0.162 0.430 5 531031 1866 1978 113 0.992 0.208 0.151 3.323 0.136 0.679 6 531032 1871 1978 108 0.996 0.165 0.261 3.219 0.137 0.475 7 531041 1855 1978 124 0.999 0.187 0.889 4.061 0.160 0.367 8 531042 1877 1978 102 0.998 0.213 0.897 4.801 0.175 0.424 9 531051 1869 1978 110 0.988 0.277 0.576 3.544 0.164 0.664 10 531052 1869 1978 110 0.998 0.181 -0.010 2.741 0.166 0.332 11 531061 1840 1978 139 0.999 0.184 -0.139 3.166 0.172 0.351 12 531062 1818 1978 161 0.996 0.222 0.474 3.178 0.173 0.516 13 531071 1819 1978 160 0.999 0.231 0.798 3.774 0.171 0.487 14 531072 1822 1978 157 0.998 0.212 0.233 3.358 0.159 0.537 15 531081 1838 1978 141 0.994 0.301 0.586 3.831 0.183 0.652 16 531082 1842 1978 137 0.992 0.296 0.595 3.392 0.181 0.644 17 531091 1852 1978 127 0.998 0.227 0.488 2.997 0.165 0.610 18 531092 1845 1978 134 0.997 0.246 0.754 4.466 0.173 0.557 19 531101 1863 1978 116 0.997 0.191 0.842 4.253 0.161 0.407 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 531102 1876 1978 103 0.997 0.182 0.456 3.220 0.156 0.390 21 531111 1862 1978 117 0.999 0.220 0.668 2.810 0.153 0.607 22 531112 1843 1978 136 0.994 0.245 0.900 4.999 0.166 0.610 23 531121 1827 1978 152 0.994 0.201 0.021 3.052 0.170 0.427 24 531122 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.174 0.069 2.660 0.164 0.290 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 0.996 0.216 0.519 3.661 0.164 0.497 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.003 0.036 0.332 0.695 0.011 0.113 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 130 0.997 0.211 0.565 3.468 0.164 0.494 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.004 0.042 0.541 0.993 0.012 0.193 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.988 0.165 -0.139 2.660 0.136 0.290 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 111 0.995 0.187 0.247 3.172 0.159 0.415 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 142 0.999 0.229 0.788 4.165 0.172 0.608 MAXIMUM VALUE 161 1.000 0.301 1.076 4.999 0.183 0.679 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.372 0.137 0.008 -0.299 3.280 -0.115 0.718 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.115 SERIES 531031 AND 531051 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.718 SERIES 531011 AND 531101 99 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 66. 190. 276. 276. RBAR 0.304 0.261 0.454 0.471 SDEV 0.192 0.214 0.165 0.158 SERR 0.024 0.016 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.891 0.892 0.952 0.955 NSS 18.8 23.5 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1818 1978 161 0.986 0.135 0.631 3.845 0.121 0.369 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.290 0.110 0.056 54 107 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.35 1.01 1.05 1.40 4.47 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.367 0.219 0.052 -0.065 0.034 -0.010 -0.004 -0.032 -0.032 0.077 PACF 0.367 0.098 -0.066 -0.100 0.109 -0.025 -0.021 -0.037 0.009 0.110 95% C.L. 0.158 0.178 0.184 0.185 0.185 0.185 0.185 0.185 0.185 0.186 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.145 0.369 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.370 0.190 0.040 -0.101 0.041 0.001 -0.011 -0.016 -0.004 0.137 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.370 2 0.347 0.062 3 0.350 0.082 -0.057 4 0.343 0.092 -0.012 -0.128 5 0.361 0.094 -0.025 -0.178 0.145 6 0.366 0.089 -0.026 -0.175 0.155 -0.028 7 0.365 0.094 -0.032 -0.176 0.158 -0.015 -0.035 8 0.364 0.094 -0.028 -0.180 0.157 -0.013 -0.027 -0.023 9 0.365 0.095 -0.028 -0.188 0.166 -0.012 -0.032 -0.040 0.049 10 0.358 0.101 -0.023 -0.186 0.141 0.016 -0.028 -0.054 -0.006 0.149 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1149.99 1128.33 1129.71 1131.19 1130.52 1129.11 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1130.98 1132.78 1134.70 1136.32 1134.69 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.370 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 13.67 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 115.83 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.370 0.137 0.051 0.019 0.007 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 531011 1 0.270 0.519 2 531012 1 0.259 0.505 3 531021 1 0.239 0.468 4 531022 1 0.189 0.433 5 531031 1 0.520 0.680 6 531032 1 0.245 0.476 7 531041 1 0.145 0.369 8 531042 1 0.214 0.425 9 531051 1 0.509 0.713 10 531052 1 0.112 0.334 11 531061 1 0.127 0.356 12 531062 1 0.285 0.520 13 531071 1 0.242 0.489 14 531072 1 0.291 0.537 15 531081 1 0.458 0.653 16 531082 1 0.438 0.653 17 531091 1 0.377 0.614 18 531092 1 0.356 0.592 19 531101 1 0.190 0.408 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 531102 1 0.160 0.393 21 531111 1 0.370 0.608 22 531112 1 0.405 0.611 23 531121 1 0.217 0.437 24 531122 1 0.106 0.296 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.280 0.504 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.123 0.117 MEDIAN 1 0.252 0.497 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.184 0.193 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.106 0.296 LOWER HINGE 1 0.190 0.417 UPPER HINGE 1 0.373 0.609 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.520 0.713 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 531011 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.179 0.493 3.375 0.207 -0.003 2 531012 1861 1978 118 1.000 0.186 0.722 3.795 0.207 0.040 3 531021 1837 1978 142 1.000 0.177 0.976 4.685 0.197 -0.073 4 531022 1837 1978 142 1.000 0.169 0.355 3.144 0.191 -0.019 5 531031 1866 1978 113 1.000 0.153 0.220 3.118 0.186 -0.221 6 531032 1871 1978 108 1.000 0.145 0.217 3.099 0.167 -0.071 7 531041 1855 1978 124 1.000 0.173 0.607 3.704 0.185 0.038 8 531042 1877 1978 102 1.000 0.193 0.772 4.196 0.198 0.085 9 531051 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.188 0.534 3.193 0.214 -0.070 10 531052 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.170 0.107 3.018 0.184 0.007 11 531061 1840 1978 139 1.000 0.172 -0.147 2.967 0.199 -0.007 12 531062 1818 1978 161 1.000 0.189 0.355 3.831 0.220 -0.077 13 531071 1819 1978 160 1.000 0.201 0.700 4.864 0.212 0.029 14 531072 1822 1978 157 1.000 0.179 0.063 3.363 0.192 0.033 15 531081 1838 1978 141 1.000 0.228 0.372 3.782 0.247 -0.149 16 531082 1842 1978 137 1.000 0.223 0.683 4.465 0.257 -0.102 17 531091 1852 1978 127 1.000 0.179 0.254 2.693 0.206 0.017 18 531092 1845 1978 134 1.000 0.194 0.481 3.581 0.219 -0.095 19 531101 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.175 0.615 4.194 0.199 -0.069 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 531102 1876 1978 103 1.000 0.167 0.376 3.883 0.183 -0.035 21 531111 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.174 0.392 2.799 0.190 0.006 22 531112 1843 1978 136 1.000 0.194 0.690 4.089 0.223 -0.139 23 531121 1827 1978 152 1.000 0.180 -0.084 3.343 0.205 -0.087 24 531122 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.166 0.082 2.903 0.191 -0.046 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 1.000 0.181 0.410 3.587 0.203 -0.042 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.000 0.019 0.285 0.604 0.020 0.072 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 130 1.000 0.179 0.384 3.478 0.199 -0.040 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.000 0.020 0.430 0.877 0.022 0.094 MINIMUM VALUE 99 1.000 0.145 -0.147 2.693 0.167 -0.221 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 111 1.000 0.171 0.219 3.109 0.191 -0.082 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.191 0.649 3.986 0.213 0.012 MAXIMUM VALUE 161 1.000 0.228 0.976 4.864 0.257 0.085 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.465 0.093 0.006 -0.027 3.155 0.156 0.703 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.156 SERIES 531051 AND 531082 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.703 SERIES 531031 AND 531032 108 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 66. 190. 276. 276. RBAR 0.405 0.439 0.544 0.513 SDEV 0.148 0.122 0.108 0.115 SERR 0.018 0.009 0.006 0.007 EPS 0.927 0.948 0.966 0.962 NSS 18.8 23.5 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1818 1978 161 0.992 0.123 0.389 3.644 0.147 -0.131 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.180 0.074 0.058 45 116 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.59 1.00 1.05 1.63 40.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.131 0.090 -0.001 -0.141 0.090 -0.041 -0.010 -0.032 -0.094 0.111 PACF -0.131 0.074 0.020 -0.148 0.056 0.002 -0.029 -0.055 -0.084 0.094 95% C.L. 0.158 0.160 0.162 0.162 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.166 0.166 0.168 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.023 -0.131 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.010 0.076 -0.008 -0.134 0.069 -0.032 -0.020 -0.048 -0.087 0.107 PACF 0.010 0.076 -0.010 -0.140 0.075 -0.012 -0.035 -0.062 -0.063 0.111 95% C.L. 0.158 0.158 0.159 0.159 0.161 0.162 0.162 0.162 0.163 0.164 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.006 0.010 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1818 1978 161 0.992 0.133 0.485 3.766 0.116 0.399 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.396 0.196 0.030 -0.085 0.012 -0.036 -0.049 -0.071 -0.061 0.083 PACF 0.396 0.046 -0.074 -0.098 0.106 -0.057 -0.047 -0.046 0.008 0.133 95% C.L. 0.158 0.181 0.186 0.186 0.187 0.187 0.187 0.187 0.188 0.189 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.161 0.399 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.14 MINUTES