RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FINL015P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FINL015P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 531 1 Koliberg LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCAB - 531 2 Finland Norway spruce 300 6306-2529 1818 1978 - 531 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 531011 1880 1978 99 1.965 0.534 0.248 3.483 0.258 0.286 2 531012 1861 1978 118 2.257 0.606 0.292 2.788 0.239 0.379 3 531021 1837 1978 142 2.497 0.669 0.762 4.793 0.219 0.398 4 531022 1837 1978 142 2.706 0.591 0.813 4.513 0.222 0.194 5 531031 1866 1978 113 1.935 0.670 1.849 7.105 0.260 0.510 6 531032 1871 1978 108 1.868 0.517 1.158 5.009 0.237 0.264 7 531041 1855 1978 124 1.694 0.508 1.185 5.099 0.231 0.508 8 531042 1877 1978 102 2.076 0.530 0.574 2.747 0.262 0.100 9 531051 1869 1978 110 2.247 0.555 1.795 8.221 0.196 0.242 10 531052 1869 1978 110 2.022 0.416 0.396 2.960 0.184 0.383 11 531061 1840 1978 139 2.517 0.684 0.602 3.125 0.247 0.304 12 531062 1818 1978 161 2.103 0.539 0.866 5.075 0.246 0.278 13 531071 1819 1978 160 2.229 0.665 4.413 37.852 0.235 0.058 14 531072 1822 1978 157 2.543 0.556 0.603 2.872 0.226 0.168 15 531081 1838 1978 141 1.906 0.648 1.249 6.114 0.324 0.276 16 531082 1842 1978 137 1.970 0.576 0.526 3.232 0.286 0.290 17 531091 1852 1978 127 2.926 1.044 0.835 2.799 0.274 0.496 18 531092 1845 1978 134 2.637 0.760 0.833 3.251 0.266 0.324 19 531101 1863 1978 116 2.081 0.500 0.167 2.381 0.227 0.332 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 531102 1876 1978 103 2.283 0.562 0.286 2.823 0.237 0.253 21 531111 1862 1978 117 2.379 0.592 0.582 2.764 0.284 -0.011 22 531112 1843 1978 136 2.408 0.737 1.039 4.106 0.251 0.427 23 531121 1827 1978 152 1.656 0.404 0.750 4.428 0.259 0.105 24 531122 1833 1978 146 1.709 0.427 0.392 4.394 0.261 0.182 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1818 TO 1978 161 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 2.192 0.595 0.926 5.497 0.247 0.281 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.337 0.134 0.863 7.050 0.030 0.139 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 130 2.166 0.569 0.756 3.794 0.247 0.282 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.503 0.143 0.637 2.194 0.033 0.193 MINIMUM VALUE 99 1.656 0.404 0.167 2.381 0.184 -0.011 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 111 1.950 0.524 0.461 2.848 0.229 0.188 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 142 2.452 0.667 1.098 5.042 0.262 0.381 MAXIMUM VALUE 161 2.926 1.044 4.413 37.852 0.324 0.510 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.362 0.157 0.009 -0.413 2.878 -0.077 0.760 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.077 SERIES 531082 AND 531091 127 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.760 SERIES 531011 AND 531012 99 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 66. 190. 276. 276. RBAR 0.325 0.355 0.463 0.477 SDEV 0.195 0.196 0.149 0.141 SERR 0.024 0.014 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.900 0.928 0.954 0.956 NSS 18.8 23.5 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1818 1978 161 2.166 0.403 1.693 10.366 0.183 0.107 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.549 0.480 -0.487 50 111 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.56 1.00 1.09 1.65 5.79 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 130. 30. 99. 112. 142. 161. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.106 -0.020 0.097 0.096 0.127 0.099 -0.049 -0.118 0.062 0.002 PACF 0.106 -0.031 0.104 0.075 0.119 0.073 -0.075 -0.137 0.046 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.158 0.159 0.159 0.161 0.162 0.165 0.166 0.167 0.169 0.169 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 531011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00605294 1.66189861 2 531012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00947126 1.69383311 3 531021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00290909 2.70454907 4 531022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00087022 2.64383578 5 531031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00390187 2.15745091 6 531032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003077 1.86591554 7 531041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00492529 1.38579857 8 531042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00530808 1.80231988 9 531051 1 2.98376369 0.30033603 0.00000000 2.17002368 10 531052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00273160 1.87030530 11 531061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00804853 1.95379734 12 531062 1 0.71993721 0.06532057 0.00000000 2.03636479 13 531071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00349111 2.50984669 14 531072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00054140 2.58576441 15 531081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00601918 1.47895038 16 531082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00174804 1.84982288 17 531091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00904856 3.50485563 18 531092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00065647 2.59225559 19 531101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00104967 2.01937032 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 531102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00107334 2.33833814 21 531111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00114298 2.31119657 22 531112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00464069 2.09027457 23 531121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00061726 1.70307600 24 531122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046253 1.67518187 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 531011 1880 1978 99 0.999 0.263 0.590 4.040 0.255 0.229 2 531012 1861 1978 118 0.999 0.228 0.630 3.682 0.237 0.124 3 531021 1837 1978 142 1.000 0.269 1.215 7.277 0.217 0.363 4 531022 1837 1978 142 1.000 0.218 0.798 4.496 0.220 0.192 5 531031 1866 1978 113 1.000 0.329 1.506 5.860 0.258 0.467 6 531032 1871 1978 108 1.000 0.277 1.160 5.015 0.235 0.262 7 531041 1855 1978 124 0.999 0.280 1.376 5.918 0.229 0.458 8 531042 1877 1978 102 1.000 0.241 0.469 2.754 0.259 0.035 9 531051 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.203 0.744 4.349 0.193 0.118 10 531052 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.200 0.338 3.100 0.182 0.349 11 531061 1840 1978 139 0.999 0.237 0.598 3.226 0.245 0.102 12 531062 1818 1978 161 1.000 0.246 0.620 3.735 0.245 0.216 13 531071 1819 1978 160 1.000 0.277 3.574 28.147 0.234 0.007 14 531072 1822 1978 157 1.000 0.218 0.611 2.883 0.224 0.165 15 531081 1838 1978 141 1.001 0.298 0.494 4.419 0.321 0.162 16 531082 1842 1978 137 1.000 0.291 0.515 3.176 0.284 0.288 17 531091 1852 1978 127 0.999 0.328 0.818 3.415 0.272 0.444 18 531092 1845 1978 134 1.000 0.289 0.847 3.249 0.263 0.324 19 531101 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.240 0.199 2.417 0.225 0.330 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 531102 1876 1978 103 1.000 0.245 0.265 2.792 0.235 0.246 21 531111 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.249 0.605 2.870 0.282 -0.017 22 531112 1843 1978 136 0.999 0.296 1.168 4.536 0.249 0.393 23 531121 1827 1978 152 1.000 0.244 0.752 4.452 0.258 0.102 24 531122 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.250 0.405 4.426 0.260 0.179 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 1.000 0.259 0.846 5.010 0.245 0.231 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.000 0.035 0.674 5.065 0.030 0.140 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 130 1.000 0.249 0.625 3.888 0.245 0.222 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.000 0.046 0.499 1.378 0.032 0.218 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.999 0.200 0.199 2.417 0.182 -0.017 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 111 1.000 0.238 0.505 3.138 0.227 0.121 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.284 1.004 4.516 0.259 0.339 MAXIMUM VALUE 161 1.001 0.329 3.574 28.147 0.321 0.467 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 531011 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 531012 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 531021 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 531022 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 531031 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 531032 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 531041 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 531042 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 531051 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 531052 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 531061 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 531062 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 531071 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 531072 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 531081 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 531082 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 531091 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 531092 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 531101 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 531102 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 531111 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 531112 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 531121 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 531122 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 531011 1880 1978 99 0.999 0.223 0.500 3.378 0.254 -0.064 2 531012 1861 1978 118 1.000 0.215 0.536 3.337 0.237 0.042 3 531021 1837 1978 142 0.994 0.216 0.777 5.090 0.218 0.063 4 531022 1837 1978 142 0.999 0.201 0.823 4.243 0.220 0.041 5 531031 1866 1978 113 0.994 0.284 1.202 4.955 0.258 0.335 6 531032 1871 1978 108 0.996 0.253 1.283 5.160 0.234 0.156 7 531041 1855 1978 124 0.996 0.232 0.908 4.401 0.229 0.256 8 531042 1877 1978 102 0.999 0.232 0.372 2.756 0.260 -0.021 9 531051 1869 1978 110 0.999 0.194 0.701 4.308 0.193 0.043 10 531052 1869 1978 110 0.999 0.179 0.123 2.481 0.182 0.203 11 531061 1840 1978 139 0.999 0.224 0.368 2.775 0.245 0.029 12 531062 1818 1978 161 0.999 0.238 0.632 3.808 0.245 0.167 13 531071 1819 1978 160 1.000 0.278 3.796 30.534 0.233 -0.005 14 531072 1822 1978 157 0.999 0.207 0.511 2.817 0.224 0.087 15 531081 1838 1978 141 0.999 0.289 0.503 4.164 0.321 0.096 16 531082 1842 1978 137 0.996 0.250 0.346 2.976 0.283 0.030 17 531091 1852 1978 127 0.995 0.290 1.017 4.579 0.272 0.275 18 531092 1845 1978 134 0.998 0.253 0.905 4.760 0.263 0.121 19 531101 1863 1978 116 0.998 0.213 0.058 2.492 0.224 0.173 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 531102 1876 1978 103 0.998 0.216 0.105 2.771 0.234 0.068 21 531111 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.246 0.593 2.860 0.282 -0.033 22 531112 1843 1978 136 0.998 0.248 0.678 3.489 0.249 0.183 23 531121 1827 1978 152 0.999 0.235 0.547 3.949 0.257 0.056 24 531122 1833 1978 146 0.999 0.245 0.466 4.655 0.260 0.129 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 0.998 0.236 0.740 4.864 0.245 0.101 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.002 0.030 0.723 5.538 0.030 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 130 0.999 0.234 0.570 3.878 0.245 0.078 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.002 0.036 0.445 1.779 0.033 0.134 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.994 0.179 0.058 2.481 0.182 -0.064 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 111 0.997 0.216 0.419 2.838 0.226 0.036 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 142 0.999 0.252 0.864 4.617 0.260 0.170 MAXIMUM VALUE 161 1.000 0.290 3.796 30.534 0.321 0.335 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.434 0.109 0.007 -0.047 3.005 0.141 0.759 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.141 SERIES 531051 AND 531092 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.759 SERIES 531011 AND 531012 99 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 66. 190. 276. 276. RBAR 0.341 0.411 0.503 0.487 SDEV 0.134 0.140 0.115 0.130 SERR 0.016 0.010 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.907 0.943 0.960 0.958 NSS 18.8 23.5 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1818 1978 161 0.990 0.168 0.952 5.668 0.184 -0.005 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.449 0.373 -0.195 59 102 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.57 1.00 1.10 1.67 5.50 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.005 -0.045 0.023 0.008 -0.001 0.008 -0.112 -0.172 -0.003 -0.045 PACF -0.005 -0.045 0.023 0.006 0.001 0.008 -0.112 -0.174 -0.019 -0.058 95% C.L. 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.160 0.165 0.165 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.018 -0.057 0.041 -0.016 -0.068 -0.042 -0.071 -0.170 -0.013 -0.108 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.018 2 0.019 -0.057 3 0.021 -0.058 0.043 4 0.022 -0.059 0.043 -0.021 5 0.021 -0.056 0.040 -0.020 -0.063 6 0.018 -0.057 0.041 -0.022 -0.062 -0.043 7 0.015 -0.062 0.040 -0.019 -0.066 -0.042 -0.076 8 0.002 -0.069 0.028 -0.022 -0.059 -0.053 -0.074 -0.171 9 -0.001 -0.070 0.027 -0.023 -0.060 -0.052 -0.075 -0.171 -0.019 10 -0.004 -0.094 0.017 -0.030 -0.068 -0.055 -0.071 -0.180 -0.019 -0.137 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1198.38 1200.33 1201.81 1203.51 1205.44 1206.81 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1208.50 1209.57 1206.80 1208.75 1207.70 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 531011 0 0.004 2 531012 0 0.002 3 531021 0 0.004 4 531022 0 0.002 5 531031 0 0.113 6 531032 0 0.025 7 531041 0 0.066 8 531042 0 0.000 9 531051 0 0.002 10 531052 0 0.042 11 531061 0 0.001 12 531062 0 0.028 13 531071 0 0.000 14 531072 0 0.008 15 531081 0 0.009 16 531082 0 0.001 17 531091 0 0.076 18 531092 0 0.015 19 531101 0 0.030 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 531102 0 0.005 21 531111 0 0.001 22 531112 0 0.034 23 531121 0 0.003 24 531122 0 0.017 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.020 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.029 MEDIAN 0 0.006 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.027 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.002 UPPER HINGE 0 0.029 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.113 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 531011 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.223 0.500 3.378 0.254 -0.064 2 531012 1861 1978 118 1.000 0.215 0.536 3.337 0.236 0.042 3 531021 1837 1978 142 1.000 0.216 0.777 5.090 0.217 0.063 4 531022 1837 1978 142 1.000 0.201 0.823 4.243 0.220 0.041 5 531031 1866 1978 113 1.000 0.284 1.202 4.955 0.256 0.335 6 531032 1871 1978 108 1.000 0.253 1.283 5.160 0.233 0.156 7 531041 1855 1978 124 1.000 0.232 0.908 4.401 0.227 0.256 8 531042 1877 1978 102 1.000 0.232 0.372 2.756 0.259 -0.021 9 531051 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.194 0.701 4.308 0.193 0.043 10 531052 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.179 0.123 2.481 0.182 0.203 11 531061 1840 1978 139 1.000 0.224 0.368 2.775 0.245 0.029 12 531062 1818 1978 161 1.000 0.238 0.632 3.808 0.245 0.167 13 531071 1819 1978 160 1.000 0.278 3.796 30.534 0.233 -0.005 14 531072 1822 1978 157 1.000 0.207 0.511 2.817 0.224 0.087 15 531081 1838 1978 141 1.000 0.289 0.503 4.164 0.321 0.096 16 531082 1842 1978 137 1.000 0.250 0.346 2.976 0.282 0.030 17 531091 1852 1978 127 1.000 0.290 1.017 4.579 0.270 0.275 18 531092 1845 1978 134 1.000 0.253 0.905 4.760 0.262 0.121 19 531101 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.213 0.058 2.492 0.224 0.173 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 531102 1876 1978 103 1.000 0.216 0.105 2.771 0.234 0.068 21 531111 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.246 0.593 2.860 0.282 -0.033 22 531112 1843 1978 136 1.000 0.248 0.678 3.489 0.248 0.183 23 531121 1827 1978 152 1.000 0.235 0.547 3.949 0.257 0.056 24 531122 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.245 0.466 4.655 0.259 0.129 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 1.000 0.236 0.740 4.864 0.244 0.101 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.000 0.030 0.723 5.538 0.029 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 130 1.000 0.234 0.570 3.878 0.245 0.078 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.000 0.036 0.445 1.779 0.034 0.134 MINIMUM VALUE 99 1.000 0.179 0.058 2.481 0.182 -0.064 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 111 1.000 0.216 0.419 2.838 0.226 0.036 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.252 0.864 4.617 0.259 0.170 MAXIMUM VALUE 161 1.000 0.290 3.796 30.534 0.321 0.335 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.434 0.109 0.007 -0.047 3.005 0.141 0.759 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.141 SERIES 531051 AND 531092 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.759 SERIES 531011 AND 531012 99 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 66. 190. 276. 276. RBAR 0.341 0.411 0.503 0.487 SDEV 0.134 0.140 0.115 0.130 SERR 0.016 0.010 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.907 0.943 0.960 0.958 NSS 18.8 23.5 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1818 1978 161 0.992 0.168 0.951 5.660 0.184 -0.004 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.449 0.373 -0.196 58 103 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.62 1.01 1.11 1.72 5.48 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.045 0.022 0.008 -0.002 0.008 -0.112 -0.171 -0.003 -0.045 PACF -0.004 -0.045 0.022 0.006 0.000 0.008 -0.113 -0.174 -0.018 -0.058 95% C.L. 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.160 0.164 0.164 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1818 1978 161 0.992 0.168 0.951 5.660 0.184 -0.004 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.045 0.022 0.008 -0.002 0.008 -0.112 -0.171 -0.003 -0.045 PACF -0.004 -0.045 0.022 0.006 0.000 0.008 -0.113 -0.174 -0.018 -0.058 95% C.L. 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.160 0.164 0.164 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.14 MINUTES