RUN: CANA5 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me4 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA168N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA168N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 803 1 Gunisao-Lake (trocken) DENSITY_MINIMUM PIBA - 803 2 Canada foxtail pine 860 5330-9623 1896 1988 - 803 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 803262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1934 1934 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 803211 1916 1988 73 0.382 0.023 0.968 4.418 0.043 0.546 2 803212 1922 1988 67 0.377 0.041 0.356 2.532 0.045 0.839 3 803221 1902 1988 87 0.350 0.034 -0.267 3.124 0.074 0.514 4 803252 1899 1988 90 0.383 0.031 -0.614 3.958 0.064 0.390 5 803261 1900 1988 89 0.295 0.026 -1.103 5.124 0.076 0.370 6 803262 1903 1988 86 0.311 0.023 0.513 2.934 0.058 0.453 7 803271 1897 1988 92 0.357 0.046 0.857 3.962 0.094 0.554 8 803272 1896 1980 85 0.344 0.037 0.189 3.361 0.082 0.551 9 803291 1907 1988 82 0.331 0.035 -0.022 3.419 0.091 0.414 10 803292 1904 1988 85 0.332 0.032 -0.347 2.943 0.070 0.583 11 803301 1900 1988 89 0.334 0.035 -1.111 5.872 0.065 0.677 12 803302 1899 1988 90 0.345 0.037 -0.930 8.236 0.076 0.527 13 803311 1897 1988 92 0.334 0.034 -2.874 19.445 0.078 0.346 14 803312 1897 1988 92 0.326 0.025 -0.395 2.630 0.062 0.471 15 803321 1897 1968 72 0.373 0.073 0.096 1.871 0.082 0.834 16 803322 1897 1970 74 0.334 0.033 -0.274 3.098 0.051 0.757 17 803331 1905 1988 84 0.332 0.031 1.899 13.003 0.063 0.355 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 17 FROM 1896 TO 1988 93 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 84 0.344 0.035 -0.180 5.290 0.069 0.540 STANDARD DEVIATION 7 0.025 0.012 1.047 4.523 0.015 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 85 0.334 0.034 -0.267 3.419 0.070 0.527 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.025 0.006 0.971 2.181 0.016 0.169 MINIMUM VALUE 67 0.295 0.023 -2.874 1.871 0.043 0.346 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 82 0.332 0.031 -0.614 2.943 0.062 0.414 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 0.357 0.037 0.356 5.124 0.078 0.583 MAXIMUM VALUE 92 0.383 0.073 1.899 19.445 0.094 0.839 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 136 0.323 0.193 0.017 -0.343 2.797 -0.260 0.691 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.260 SERIES 803212 AND 803301 67 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.691 SERIES 803291 AND 803322 64 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 83.84 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 105. RBAR 0.181 SDEV 0.196 SERR 0.019 EPS 0.787 NSS 16.8 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1896 1988 93 0.338 0.025 -0.829 3.199 0.042 0.731 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.537 0.218 -0.041 41 52 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 0.98 1.00 1.12 2.10 8.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 86. 8. 67. 82. 90. 92. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.723 0.640 0.564 0.525 0.452 0.419 0.352 0.415 0.424 0.439 PACF 0.723 0.244 0.084 0.092 -0.025 0.038 -0.047 0.227 0.103 0.073 95% C.L. 0.207 0.297 0.351 0.388 0.417 0.438 0.455 0.466 0.482 0.498 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.594 0.520 0.297 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 803211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038412 0.36825341 2 803212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00184771 0.31389418 3 803221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00062076 0.32303128 4 803252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039774 0.36501375 5 803261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028073 0.28231102 6 803262 1 0.00697760 0.01284669 0.00000000 0.30709854 7 803271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00076083 0.32146919 8 803272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00087981 0.30616808 9 803291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026687 0.32014453 10 803292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00082431 0.29620168 11 803301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016377 0.32622573 12 803302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046483 0.32407242 13 803311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049635 0.31050646 14 803312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046229 0.30426422 15 803321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00298315 0.26444837 16 803322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00092307 0.29930398 17 803331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035628 0.31664371 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 803211 1916 1988 73 1.000 0.056 1.179 5.085 0.042 0.476 2 803212 1922 1988 67 1.000 0.052 -0.267 3.650 0.044 0.466 3 803221 1902 1988 87 1.000 0.086 0.083 3.007 0.073 0.385 4 803252 1899 1988 90 1.000 0.076 -0.097 3.512 0.063 0.328 5 803261 1900 1988 89 1.000 0.084 -0.960 5.599 0.076 0.318 6 803262 1903 1988 86 1.000 0.073 0.503 2.904 0.058 0.448 7 803271 1897 1988 92 1.000 0.116 0.964 3.745 0.094 0.428 8 803272 1896 1980 85 1.000 0.089 0.475 3.047 0.081 0.328 9 803291 1907 1988 82 1.000 0.104 0.097 3.265 0.090 0.390 10 803292 1904 1988 85 1.000 0.075 0.721 4.541 0.070 0.310 11 803301 1900 1988 89 1.000 0.106 -0.995 5.503 0.064 0.666 12 803302 1899 1988 90 1.000 0.101 -1.100 9.627 0.075 0.470 13 803311 1897 1988 92 1.000 0.096 -2.997 21.449 0.077 0.227 14 803312 1897 1988 92 1.000 0.067 0.216 2.967 0.061 0.288 15 803321 1897 1968 72 1.000 0.096 0.366 4.132 0.081 0.342 16 803322 1897 1970 74 1.000 0.077 -0.133 2.392 0.051 0.619 17 803331 1905 1988 84 1.000 0.090 2.553 15.050 0.062 0.297 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 84 1.000 0.085 0.036 5.851 0.068 0.399 STANDARD DEVIATION 7 0.000 0.017 1.178 5.087 0.015 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 86 1.000 0.086 0.097 3.745 0.070 0.385 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.021 0.769 2.456 0.016 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 67 1.000 0.052 -2.997 2.392 0.042 0.227 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 82 1.000 0.075 -0.267 3.047 0.061 0.318 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.096 0.503 5.503 0.077 0.466 MAXIMUM VALUE 92 1.000 0.116 2.553 21.449 0.094 0.666 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 803211 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 803212 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 803221 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 803252 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 803261 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 803262 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 803271 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 803272 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 803291 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 803292 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 803301 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 803302 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 803311 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 803312 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 803321 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 803322 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 803331 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 803211 1916 1988 73 1.000 0.049 0.812 4.083 0.042 0.324 2 803212 1922 1988 67 1.000 0.049 -0.153 3.263 0.044 0.389 3 803221 1902 1988 87 1.000 0.075 0.141 2.719 0.073 0.182 4 803252 1899 1988 90 1.000 0.065 0.025 3.851 0.063 0.102 5 803261 1900 1988 89 1.000 0.078 -1.249 6.359 0.076 0.203 6 803262 1903 1988 86 1.000 0.070 0.346 2.717 0.058 0.387 7 803271 1897 1988 92 1.000 0.110 0.935 3.617 0.093 0.361 8 803272 1896 1980 85 1.000 0.078 0.475 3.268 0.081 0.134 9 803291 1907 1988 82 1.000 0.085 0.211 3.213 0.090 0.107 10 803292 1904 1988 85 1.000 0.071 0.742 4.845 0.070 0.243 11 803301 1900 1988 89 1.000 0.094 -1.275 6.346 0.064 0.573 12 803302 1899 1988 90 1.000 0.092 -1.677 12.743 0.075 0.364 13 803311 1897 1988 92 1.000 0.093 -3.214 23.554 0.077 0.155 14 803312 1897 1988 92 1.000 0.064 0.234 2.964 0.061 0.241 15 803321 1897 1968 72 1.000 0.089 -0.066 4.304 0.081 0.258 16 803322 1897 1970 74 1.000 0.052 -0.009 3.486 0.051 0.226 17 803331 1905 1988 84 1.000 0.085 2.618 14.663 0.063 0.229 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 84 1.000 0.076 -0.065 6.235 0.068 0.263 STANDARD DEVIATION 7 0.000 0.017 1.267 5.623 0.015 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 86 1.000 0.078 0.141 3.851 0.070 0.241 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.024 0.627 3.084 0.016 0.179 MINIMUM VALUE 67 1.000 0.049 -3.214 2.717 0.042 0.102 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 82 1.000 0.065 -0.153 3.263 0.061 0.182 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.089 0.475 6.346 0.077 0.361 MAXIMUM VALUE 92 1.000 0.110 2.618 23.554 0.093 0.573 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 136 0.258 0.153 0.013 -0.221 3.102 -0.112 0.599 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.112 SERIES 803301 AND 803331 84 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.599 SERIES 803211 AND 803212 67 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 83.84 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 105. RBAR 0.240 SDEV 0.184 SERR 0.018 EPS 0.842 NSS 16.8 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1896 1988 93 0.998 0.042 0.444 3.502 0.041 0.182 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.019 -0.007 0.063 49 44 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.39 1.66 1.00 1.10 2.76 9.33 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.180 0.001 -0.081 -0.034 -0.168 -0.215 -0.297 -0.104 0.022 0.116 PACF 0.180 -0.033 -0.078 -0.005 -0.169 -0.173 -0.264 -0.077 -0.018 0.032 95% C.L. 0.207 0.214 0.214 0.215 0.216 0.221 0.230 0.246 0.248 0.248 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.034 0.180 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.123 0.018 -0.086 -0.045 -0.224 -0.139 -0.253 -0.022 -0.010 0.099 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.123 2 0.123 0.003 3 0.123 0.014 -0.090 4 0.121 0.014 -0.087 -0.025 5 0.116 -0.005 -0.084 0.002 -0.218 6 0.094 -0.005 -0.092 0.001 -0.206 -0.100 7 0.069 -0.056 -0.092 -0.022 -0.207 -0.077 -0.249 8 0.063 -0.058 -0.097 -0.022 -0.209 -0.078 -0.247 -0.023 9 0.062 -0.072 -0.101 -0.035 -0.211 -0.084 -0.251 -0.020 -0.059 10 0.062 -0.072 -0.101 -0.034 -0.210 -0.084 -0.250 -0.019 -0.059 0.003 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 341.96 342.53 344.53 345.78 347.72 345.21 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 346.26 342.31 344.26 345.94 347.94 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 803211 0 0.105 2 803212 0 0.156 3 803221 0 0.034 4 803252 0 0.011 5 803261 0 0.041 6 803262 0 0.155 7 803271 0 0.131 8 803272 0 0.018 9 803291 0 0.012 10 803292 0 0.059 11 803301 0 0.331 12 803302 0 0.133 13 803311 0 0.024 14 803312 0 0.059 15 803321 0 0.069 16 803322 0 0.052 17 803331 0 0.054 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.085 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.080 MEDIAN 0 0.059 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.097 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.011 LOWER HINGE 0 0.034 UPPER HINGE 0 0.131 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.331 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 803211 1916 1988 73 1.000 0.049 0.812 4.083 0.042 0.324 2 803212 1922 1988 67 1.000 0.049 -0.153 3.263 0.044 0.389 3 803221 1902 1988 87 1.000 0.075 0.141 2.719 0.073 0.182 4 803252 1899 1988 90 1.000 0.065 0.025 3.851 0.063 0.102 5 803261 1900 1988 89 1.000 0.078 -1.249 6.359 0.076 0.203 6 803262 1903 1988 86 1.000 0.070 0.346 2.717 0.058 0.387 7 803271 1897 1988 92 1.000 0.110 0.935 3.617 0.093 0.361 8 803272 1896 1980 85 1.000 0.078 0.475 3.268 0.081 0.134 9 803291 1907 1988 82 1.000 0.085 0.211 3.213 0.090 0.107 10 803292 1904 1988 85 1.000 0.071 0.742 4.845 0.070 0.243 11 803301 1900 1988 89 1.000 0.094 -1.275 6.346 0.064 0.573 12 803302 1899 1988 90 1.000 0.092 -1.677 12.743 0.075 0.364 13 803311 1897 1988 92 1.000 0.093 -3.214 23.554 0.077 0.155 14 803312 1897 1988 92 1.000 0.064 0.234 2.964 0.061 0.241 15 803321 1897 1968 72 1.000 0.089 -0.066 4.304 0.081 0.258 16 803322 1897 1970 74 1.000 0.052 -0.008 3.486 0.051 0.226 17 803331 1905 1988 84 1.000 0.085 2.618 14.663 0.063 0.229 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 84 1.000 0.076 -0.065 6.235 0.068 0.263 STANDARD DEVIATION 7 0.000 0.017 1.267 5.623 0.015 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 86 1.000 0.078 0.141 3.851 0.070 0.241 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.024 0.627 3.084 0.016 0.179 MINIMUM VALUE 67 1.000 0.049 -3.214 2.717 0.042 0.102 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 82 1.000 0.065 -0.153 3.263 0.061 0.182 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.089 0.475 6.346 0.077 0.361 MAXIMUM VALUE 92 1.000 0.110 2.618 23.554 0.093 0.573 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 136 0.258 0.153 0.013 -0.221 3.102 -0.112 0.599 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.112 SERIES 803301 AND 803331 84 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.599 SERIES 803211 AND 803212 67 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 83.84 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 105. RBAR 0.240 SDEV 0.184 SERR 0.018 EPS 0.842 NSS 16.8 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1896 1988 93 0.998 0.042 0.443 3.497 0.041 0.181 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.018 -0.007 0.062 49 44 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.39 1.66 1.00 1.10 2.76 9.32 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.180 0.001 -0.081 -0.034 -0.167 -0.215 -0.297 -0.104 0.022 0.115 PACF 0.180 -0.033 -0.077 -0.005 -0.168 -0.173 -0.264 -0.077 -0.019 0.031 95% C.L. 0.207 0.214 0.214 0.215 0.215 0.221 0.230 0.246 0.248 0.248 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.033 0.180 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1896 1988 93 0.998 0.042 0.443 3.497 0.041 0.181 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.180 0.001 -0.081 -0.034 -0.167 -0.215 -0.297 -0.104 0.022 0.115 PACF 0.180 -0.033 -0.077 -0.005 -0.168 -0.173 -0.264 -0.077 -0.019 0.031 95% C.L. 0.207 0.214 0.214 0.215 0.215 0.221 0.230 0.246 0.248 0.248 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.033 0.180 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES