RUN: CANA5 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me4 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA112T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA112T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 679 1 Kootenai Pass DENSITY_LATE PCEN - 679 2 Canada Engelmann spruce 1850 4905-11645 1701 1983 - 679 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 8 679042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1768 1768 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 679062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1972 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 679112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1795 1795 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 679011 1772 1983 212 6.255 0.504 -0.672 3.675 0.079 0.217 2 679012 1803 1983 181 6.235 0.522 -0.474 3.575 0.080 0.267 3 679021 1753 1983 231 5.974 0.689 -0.427 3.075 0.120 0.189 4 679022 1743 1983 241 6.226 0.690 -0.789 3.492 0.115 0.175 5 679031 1718 1983 266 6.100 0.790 -0.604 3.164 0.122 0.327 6 679032 1727 1983 257 6.149 0.775 -0.592 3.113 0.112 0.386 7 679041 1733 1983 251 6.183 0.686 -0.391 4.584 0.100 0.310 8 679042 1746 1983 238 6.130 0.661 -1.065 5.192 0.108 0.144 9 679051 1815 1983 169 6.482 0.689 -0.941 4.329 0.108 0.191 10 679052 1816 1983 168 6.517 0.662 -0.993 4.491 0.094 0.274 11 679061 1763 1983 221 6.256 0.762 -0.070 2.610 0.094 0.541 12 679062 1774 1983 210 6.259 0.749 -0.303 3.171 0.105 0.405 13 679071 1739 1983 245 6.235 0.738 -0.644 3.132 0.132 0.046 14 679072 1723 1983 261 6.222 0.742 -0.607 3.237 0.119 0.218 15 679081 1726 1983 258 5.403 0.656 -0.638 2.966 0.126 0.231 16 679082 1701 1983 283 5.320 0.817 0.057 2.670 0.116 0.528 17 679091 1753 1983 231 5.671 0.638 -0.345 3.299 0.106 0.310 18 679092 1774 1983 210 5.731 0.654 -0.217 3.284 0.112 0.259 19 679101 1725 1983 259 6.307 0.694 -0.619 4.056 0.089 0.426 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 679102 1722 1983 262 5.988 0.712 -0.529 3.427 0.103 0.341 21 679111 1709 1983 275 5.752 0.696 -0.104 3.081 0.099 0.456 22 679112 1747 1983 237 5.804 0.667 -0.024 3.194 0.112 0.253 23 679121 1732 1983 252 5.753 0.611 -1.144 4.957 0.097 0.212 24 679122 1754 1983 230 5.316 0.682 -0.231 3.032 0.112 0.349 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1701 TO 1983 283 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 235 6.011 0.687 -0.515 3.534 0.107 0.294 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.343 0.073 0.328 0.699 0.013 0.120 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 239 6.139 0.689 -0.560 3.261 0.108 0.271 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.493 0.081 0.391 0.768 0.017 0.153 MINIMUM VALUE 168 5.316 0.504 -1.144 2.610 0.079 0.046 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 216 5.752 0.659 -0.658 3.097 0.098 0.215 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 6.245 0.740 -0.267 3.865 0.116 0.368 MAXIMUM VALUE 283 6.517 0.817 0.057 5.192 0.132 0.541 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.581 0.127 0.008 -0.247 2.689 0.246 0.902 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.246 SERIES 679082 AND 679101 259 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.902 SERIES 679051 AND 679052 168 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.97 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 136. 210. 231. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.422 0.721 0.708 0.615 0.622 0.670 0.684 0.642 SDEV 0.217 0.092 0.138 0.141 0.145 0.172 0.149 0.150 SERR 0.032 0.008 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.923 0.981 0.982 0.974 0.975 0.980 0.981 0.977 NSS 16.3 20.3 22.4 23.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1701 1983 283 6.082 0.570 -0.818 4.646 0.089 0.229 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.192 -0.058 0.903 81 202 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.33 1.00 1.04 1.37 4.04 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 240. 42. 168. 216. 258. 283. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.228 0.206 0.196 0.238 0.271 0.222 0.144 0.179 0.155 0.124 PACF 0.228 0.162 0.129 0.162 0.176 0.096 0.000 0.051 0.013 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.119 0.125 0.130 0.134 0.140 0.147 0.152 0.153 0.156 0.159 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.172 0.089 0.078 0.072 0.138 0.181 0.122 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 679011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00054672 6.19644356 2 679012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00182333 6.06938124 3 679021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00203256 6.21014977 4 679022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00199992 6.46784115 5 679031 1 1.49174249 0.01614002 0.00000000 5.75968552 6 679032 1 1.62148285 0.00625356 0.00000000 5.34464073 7 679041 1 1.52342117 0.03806315 0.00000000 6.02640295 8 679042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038145 6.08705378 9 679051 1 1.15859365 0.01594270 0.00000000 6.08432865 10 679052 1 1.36493170 0.04910522 0.00000000 6.35540771 11 679061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00331585 5.88822985 12 679062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00718159 5.51762867 13 679071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00078732 6.13809872 14 679072 1 1.31082141 0.01025467 0.00000000 5.76852846 15 679081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002139 5.40025330 16 679082 1 2.26973248 0.03792066 0.00000000 5.11238766 17 679091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00249271 5.38166857 18 679092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00129081 5.59524822 19 679101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038228 6.35653067 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 679102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00070437 5.89569521 21 679111 1 1.75702858 0.03097196 0.00000000 5.54846287 22 679112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00112961 5.66755390 23 679121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038333 5.80170536 24 679122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00072267 5.23296690 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 679011 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.080 -0.668 3.660 0.079 0.212 2 679012 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.082 -0.545 3.750 0.079 0.246 3 679021 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.113 -0.370 3.012 0.119 0.159 4 679022 1743 1983 241 1.000 0.109 -0.707 3.444 0.115 0.141 5 679031 1718 1983 266 1.000 0.116 -0.674 3.411 0.121 0.143 6 679032 1727 1983 257 1.000 0.113 -0.540 3.206 0.112 0.225 7 679041 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.100 -0.732 4.244 0.100 0.149 8 679042 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.108 -1.055 5.218 0.108 0.144 9 679051 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.098 -0.988 4.730 0.107 0.009 10 679052 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.093 -1.153 4.983 0.093 0.116 11 679061 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.117 -0.203 2.760 0.094 0.500 12 679062 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.099 -0.675 4.214 0.104 0.140 13 679071 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.118 -0.693 3.139 0.131 0.040 14 679072 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.108 -0.590 3.535 0.118 0.019 15 679081 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.121 -0.639 2.967 0.126 0.230 16 679082 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.133 -0.125 2.595 0.115 0.371 17 679091 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.108 -0.518 3.414 0.105 0.254 18 679092 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.113 -0.306 3.296 0.111 0.242 19 679101 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.110 -0.586 3.966 0.088 0.423 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 679102 1722 1983 262 1.000 0.118 -0.588 3.486 0.103 0.335 21 679111 1709 1983 275 1.000 0.104 -0.431 3.234 0.099 0.246 22 679112 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.114 0.030 3.474 0.112 0.238 23 679121 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.106 -1.105 4.889 0.097 0.210 24 679122 1754 1983 230 1.000 0.128 -0.234 3.019 0.111 0.345 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 235 1.000 0.109 -0.587 3.652 0.106 0.214 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.012 0.300 0.719 0.013 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 239 1.000 0.110 -0.589 3.459 0.107 0.218 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.000 0.014 0.300 0.917 0.017 0.108 MINIMUM VALUE 168 1.000 0.080 -1.153 2.595 0.079 0.009 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 216 1.000 0.102 -0.700 3.172 0.098 0.142 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.116 -0.401 4.090 0.115 0.250 MAXIMUM VALUE 283 1.000 0.133 0.030 5.218 0.131 0.500 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 679011 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 679012 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 679021 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 679022 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 679031 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 679032 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 679041 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 679042 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 679051 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 679052 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 679061 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 679062 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 679071 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 679072 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 679081 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 679082 -67 189 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 679091 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 679092 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 679101 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 679102 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 679111 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 679112 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 679121 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 679122 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 679011 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.076 -0.832 3.834 0.079 0.130 2 679012 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.078 -0.655 3.815 0.080 0.153 3 679021 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.108 -0.383 3.011 0.119 0.075 4 679022 1743 1983 241 1.000 0.105 -0.720 3.389 0.115 0.058 5 679031 1718 1983 266 1.000 0.111 -0.760 3.584 0.121 0.040 6 679032 1727 1983 257 0.999 0.102 -0.693 3.555 0.112 0.046 7 679041 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.096 -0.783 4.557 0.099 0.081 8 679042 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.100 -1.294 5.530 0.108 -0.008 9 679051 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.096 -0.989 4.774 0.107 -0.015 10 679052 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.090 -1.130 5.204 0.093 0.056 11 679061 1763 1983 221 0.999 0.102 -0.175 3.057 0.094 0.350 12 679062 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.095 -0.788 4.563 0.104 0.064 13 679071 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.116 -0.719 3.194 0.131 0.009 14 679072 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.108 -0.586 3.547 0.118 0.012 15 679081 1726 1983 258 0.999 0.110 -0.790 3.431 0.126 0.048 16 679082 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.121 -0.077 2.608 0.115 0.239 17 679091 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.101 -0.721 3.654 0.105 0.139 18 679092 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.104 -0.493 3.581 0.111 0.103 19 679101 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.096 -0.918 4.949 0.088 0.222 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 679102 1722 1983 262 0.999 0.109 -0.701 3.755 0.103 0.221 21 679111 1709 1983 275 1.000 0.099 -0.448 3.447 0.099 0.169 22 679112 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.106 -0.220 3.076 0.112 0.115 23 679121 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.099 -1.256 5.586 0.097 0.090 24 679122 1754 1983 230 1.000 0.120 -0.369 3.177 0.111 0.260 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 235 1.000 0.102 -0.687 3.870 0.106 0.111 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.011 0.312 0.834 0.013 0.093 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 239 1.000 0.102 -0.720 3.583 0.107 0.086 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.000 0.013 0.341 1.269 0.017 0.114 MINIMUM VALUE 168 0.999 0.076 -1.294 2.608 0.079 -0.015 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 216 1.000 0.096 -0.811 3.292 0.098 0.047 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.109 -0.470 4.560 0.115 0.161 MAXIMUM VALUE 283 1.000 0.121 -0.077 5.586 0.131 0.350 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.656 0.101 0.006 -0.362 3.018 0.350 0.907 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.350 SERIES 679011 AND 679082 212 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.907 SERIES 679071 AND 679072 245 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.97 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 136. 210. 231. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.451 0.732 0.721 0.631 0.647 0.681 0.678 0.656 SDEV 0.185 0.085 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.163 0.154 0.133 SERR 0.028 0.007 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.010 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.931 0.982 0.983 0.976 0.978 0.981 0.981 0.979 NSS 16.3 20.3 22.4 23.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1701 1983 283 0.999 0.081 -1.114 4.974 0.087 -0.009 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.046 -0.010 0.067 84 199 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.62 1.00 1.04 1.65 4.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.009 -0.019 -0.026 0.053 0.083 0.041 -0.078 0.022 0.003 -0.082 PACF -0.009 -0.019 -0.026 0.052 0.084 0.044 -0.072 0.024 -0.006 -0.098 95% C.L. 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.014 -0.032 -0.040 0.068 0.100 0.057 -0.092 0.015 -0.001 -0.068 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.014 2 -0.015 -0.032 3 -0.016 -0.033 -0.041 4 -0.013 -0.031 -0.040 0.065 5 -0.020 -0.027 -0.037 0.067 0.100 6 -0.026 -0.031 -0.035 0.068 0.101 0.064 7 -0.021 -0.023 -0.029 0.066 0.099 0.062 -0.080 8 -0.020 -0.024 -0.031 0.065 0.099 0.062 -0.079 0.018 9 -0.020 -0.025 -0.030 0.066 0.100 0.062 -0.080 0.018 -0.014 10 -0.021 -0.023 -0.038 0.072 0.109 0.068 -0.082 0.015 -0.016 -0.094 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1928.48 1930.43 1932.13 1933.65 1934.43 1933.60 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1934.44 1934.64 1936.55 1938.49 1937.98 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 679011 0 0.017 2 679012 0 0.024 3 679021 0 0.006 4 679022 0 0.003 5 679031 0 0.002 6 679032 0 0.002 7 679041 0 0.007 8 679042 0 0.000 9 679051 0 0.000 10 679052 0 0.003 11 679061 0 0.123 12 679062 0 0.004 13 679071 0 0.000 14 679072 0 0.000 15 679081 0 0.002 16 679082 0 0.057 17 679091 0 0.019 18 679092 0 0.011 19 679101 0 0.049 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 679102 0 0.050 21 679111 0 0.029 22 679112 0 0.014 23 679121 0 0.008 24 679122 0 0.068 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.021 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.030 MEDIAN 0 0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.024 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.002 UPPER HINGE 0 0.026 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.123 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 679011 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.076 -0.832 3.834 0.079 0.130 2 679012 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.078 -0.655 3.815 0.079 0.153 3 679021 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.108 -0.383 3.011 0.119 0.075 4 679022 1743 1983 241 1.000 0.105 -0.720 3.389 0.115 0.058 5 679031 1718 1983 266 1.000 0.111 -0.760 3.584 0.121 0.040 6 679032 1727 1983 257 1.000 0.102 -0.693 3.555 0.112 0.046 7 679041 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.096 -0.783 4.557 0.099 0.081 8 679042 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.100 -1.294 5.530 0.108 -0.008 9 679051 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.096 -0.989 4.774 0.107 -0.015 10 679052 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.090 -1.130 5.204 0.093 0.056 11 679061 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.102 -0.175 3.057 0.094 0.350 12 679062 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.095 -0.788 4.563 0.104 0.064 13 679071 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.116 -0.719 3.194 0.131 0.009 14 679072 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.108 -0.586 3.547 0.118 0.012 15 679081 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.110 -0.790 3.431 0.126 0.048 16 679082 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.121 -0.077 2.608 0.115 0.239 17 679091 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.101 -0.721 3.654 0.105 0.139 18 679092 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.104 -0.493 3.581 0.111 0.103 19 679101 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.096 -0.918 4.949 0.088 0.222 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 679102 1722 1983 262 1.000 0.109 -0.701 3.755 0.103 0.221 21 679111 1709 1983 275 1.000 0.099 -0.448 3.447 0.099 0.169 22 679112 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.106 -0.220 3.076 0.112 0.115 23 679121 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.099 -1.256 5.586 0.097 0.090 24 679122 1754 1983 230 1.000 0.120 -0.369 3.177 0.111 0.260 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 235 1.000 0.102 -0.687 3.870 0.106 0.111 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.011 0.312 0.834 0.013 0.093 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 239 1.000 0.102 -0.720 3.583 0.107 0.086 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.000 0.013 0.341 1.269 0.017 0.114 MINIMUM VALUE 168 1.000 0.076 -1.294 2.608 0.079 -0.015 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 216 1.000 0.096 -0.811 3.292 0.098 0.047 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.109 -0.470 4.560 0.115 0.161 MAXIMUM VALUE 283 1.000 0.121 -0.077 5.586 0.131 0.350 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.656 0.101 0.006 -0.362 3.018 0.350 0.907 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.350 SERIES 679011 AND 679082 212 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.907 SERIES 679071 AND 679072 245 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.97 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 136. 210. 231. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.451 0.732 0.721 0.631 0.647 0.681 0.678 0.656 SDEV 0.185 0.085 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.163 0.154 0.133 SERR 0.028 0.007 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.010 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.931 0.982 0.983 0.976 0.978 0.981 0.981 0.979 NSS 16.3 20.3 22.4 23.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1701 1983 283 0.999 0.081 -1.114 4.974 0.087 -0.009 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.046 -0.010 0.067 83 200 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.61 1.00 1.04 1.65 4.25 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.009 -0.019 -0.026 0.053 0.083 0.041 -0.078 0.023 0.003 -0.082 PACF -0.009 -0.019 -0.026 0.052 0.084 0.044 -0.072 0.024 -0.006 -0.098 95% C.L. 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1701 1983 283 0.999 0.081 -1.114 4.974 0.087 -0.009 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.009 -0.019 -0.026 0.053 0.083 0.041 -0.078 0.023 0.003 -0.082 PACF -0.009 -0.019 -0.026 0.052 0.084 0.044 -0.072 0.024 -0.006 -0.098 95% C.L. 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES