RUN: CANA004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me3 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA096E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA096E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 691 1 Sunwapta Pass, N-Passh. WIDTH_EARLY PCEN - 691 2 Canada Engelmann spruce 2000 5215-11700 1608 1983 - 691 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 15 691081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1844 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 691011 1702 1983 282 1.026 0.516 0.507 2.451 0.173 0.912 2 691012 1715 1983 269 1.057 0.431 0.546 2.265 0.180 0.868 3 691021 1723 1983 261 1.026 0.346 0.061 2.287 0.156 0.830 4 691022 1717 1983 267 0.860 0.303 0.487 2.407 0.157 0.826 5 691031 1629 1983 355 0.587 0.221 0.317 3.339 0.217 0.752 6 691032 1629 1983 355 0.764 0.231 0.180 3.769 0.208 0.659 7 691041 1669 1983 315 0.430 0.346 1.628 6.749 0.275 0.933 8 691042 1623 1983 361 0.598 0.453 0.625 2.148 0.228 0.951 9 691051 1740 1983 244 0.874 0.357 0.667 2.507 0.136 0.905 10 691052 1713 1983 271 1.052 0.410 0.143 2.237 0.164 0.857 11 691061 1701 1983 283 0.850 0.435 0.859 2.453 0.158 0.932 12 691062 1710 1983 274 0.901 0.341 0.883 2.799 0.153 0.871 13 691071 1616 1983 368 0.736 0.475 1.146 3.277 0.154 0.937 14 691072 1629 1983 355 0.685 0.494 1.541 4.382 0.168 0.951 15 691081 1623 1983 361 0.476 0.509 1.856 5.855 0.264 0.949 16 691082 1644 1983 340 0.346 0.347 1.726 5.029 0.280 0.939 17 691091 1608 1983 376 0.593 0.377 0.918 2.830 0.200 0.931 18 691092 1608 1983 376 0.524 0.370 0.980 2.716 0.235 0.934 19 691101 1724 1983 260 1.031 0.667 0.615 2.220 0.186 0.934 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 691102 1706 1983 278 0.998 0.504 0.907 3.175 0.208 0.865 21 691111 1732 1983 252 1.229 0.373 0.639 3.666 0.192 0.683 22 691112 1772 1983 212 1.333 0.383 0.569 3.725 0.212 0.614 23 691121 1704 1983 280 0.635 0.264 0.407 2.764 0.195 0.847 24 691122 1723 1983 261 0.760 0.271 0.998 3.774 0.164 0.821 25 691131 1801 1983 183 1.125 0.376 -0.291 3.146 0.142 0.861 26 691132 1810 1983 174 1.242 0.432 -0.398 2.901 0.144 0.885 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1608 TO 1983 376 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 293 0.836 0.394 0.712 3.264 0.190 0.863 STANDARD DEVIATION 58 0.267 0.100 0.566 1.152 0.041 0.093 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 279 0.855 0.376 0.632 2.866 0.183 0.878 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 94 0.433 0.107 0.574 1.274 0.054 0.104 MINIMUM VALUE 174 0.346 0.221 -0.398 2.148 0.136 0.614 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 261 0.598 0.346 0.407 2.451 0.157 0.830 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 355 1.031 0.453 0.980 3.725 0.212 0.934 MAXIMUM VALUE 376 1.333 0.667 1.856 6.749 0.280 0.951 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.517 0.290 0.016 -0.738 3.154 -0.390 0.953 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.390 SERIES 691081 AND 691131 183 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.953 SERIES 691081 AND 691082 340 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 69.04 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1633. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. CORR 1. 28. 36. 45. 105. 231. 253. 276. 325. 325. RBAR 0.576 0.358 0.597 0.574 0.173 0.277 0.352 0.670 0.415 0.348 SDEV 0.000 0.232 0.190 0.173 0.515 0.256 0.248 0.133 0.215 0.224 SERR 0.000 0.044 0.032 0.026 0.050 0.017 0.016 0.008 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.895 0.836 0.939 0.953 0.814 0.899 0.929 0.981 0.949 0.933 NSS 6.3 9.1 10.4 15.0 20.9 23.2 23.9 25.2 26.0 26.0 YEAR 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.370 0.242 0.362 SDEV 0.210 0.245 0.283 SERR 0.012 0.014 0.016 EPS 0.939 0.893 0.937 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1608 1983 376 0.849 0.293 0.326 2.277 0.128 0.888 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.267 0.129 0.272 110 266 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.43 1.00 1.06 1.49 3.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.52 0.86 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 279. 94. 174. 261. 355. 376. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.886 0.867 0.847 0.831 0.818 0.796 0.787 0.778 0.775 0.770 PACF 0.886 0.381 0.184 0.117 0.079 0.008 0.049 0.056 0.080 0.058 95% C.L. 0.103 0.165 0.208 0.242 0.271 0.296 0.318 0.338 0.356 0.374 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.833 0.426 0.233 0.109 0.087 0.102 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 691011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00478755 1.70389163 2 691012 1 1.33988750 0.00622055 0.00000000 0.40857521 3 691021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00374403 1.51640642 4 691022 1 0.94460982 0.00544003 0.00000000 0.36337310 5 691031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00154107 0.86169159 6 691032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00128730 0.99299926 7 691041 1 1.23980117 0.01029123 0.00000000 0.06426178 8 691042 -67 241 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 691051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00417646 1.38604236 10 691052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00351935 1.53077245 11 691061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00352924 1.35090446 12 691062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00274379 1.27778220 13 691071 1 1.74214995 0.00830430 0.00000000 0.19520685 14 691072 1 1.77239382 0.01154051 0.00000000 0.26199031 15 691081 1 2.12645626 0.01845212 0.00000000 0.15901415 16 691082 1 1.34920681 0.01631598 0.00000000 0.10583792 17 691091 1 1.39988518 0.00618365 0.00000000 0.05135561 18 691092 1 1.29856646 0.00789645 0.00000000 0.11124104 19 691101 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 691102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00460958 1.64138150 21 691111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00153975 1.42414308 22 691112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002446 1.33050835 23 691121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00234906 0.96532798 24 691122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00226982 1.05700171 25 691131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00338247 1.43654239 26 691132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00390201 1.58366752 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 691011 1702 1983 282 0.995 0.350 0.659 4.150 0.173 0.825 2 691012 1715 1983 269 1.002 0.295 0.409 2.971 0.180 0.728 3 691021 1723 1983 261 0.996 0.192 -0.011 2.916 0.156 0.492 4 691022 1717 1983 267 1.001 0.259 0.119 2.820 0.157 0.724 5 691031 1629 1983 355 0.995 0.272 0.348 3.146 0.216 0.530 6 691032 1629 1983 355 0.999 0.261 0.407 3.414 0.207 0.543 7 691041 1669 1983 315 1.005 0.333 0.908 5.052 0.273 0.353 8 691042 1623 1983 361 1.005 0.299 1.542 9.962 0.227 0.387 9 691051 1740 1983 244 1.013 0.269 1.312 5.693 0.135 0.759 10 691052 1713 1983 271 0.992 0.265 -0.360 2.834 0.164 0.709 11 691061 1701 1983 283 1.017 0.365 0.308 2.889 0.158 0.836 12 691062 1710 1983 274 1.003 0.270 0.158 2.422 0.152 0.748 13 691071 1616 1983 368 1.005 0.226 1.074 5.086 0.154 0.591 14 691072 1629 1983 355 1.007 0.265 0.739 5.241 0.167 0.654 15 691081 1623 1983 361 1.021 0.527 1.488 5.844 0.265 0.823 16 691082 1644 1983 340 1.031 0.471 1.422 5.430 0.280 0.672 17 691091 1608 1983 376 1.008 0.264 0.822 5.392 0.200 0.473 18 691092 1608 1983 376 1.021 0.396 0.973 4.875 0.234 0.650 19 691101 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.210 0.713 4.755 0.186 0.349 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 691102 1706 1983 278 1.003 0.307 0.597 4.224 0.207 0.603 21 691111 1732 1983 252 0.999 0.291 0.841 4.147 0.191 0.649 22 691112 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.287 0.566 3.715 0.211 0.611 23 691121 1704 1983 280 0.991 0.274 0.325 3.304 0.195 0.642 24 691122 1723 1983 261 1.001 0.258 0.583 3.636 0.164 0.642 25 691131 1801 1983 183 0.995 0.303 -0.222 2.536 0.142 0.842 26 691132 1810 1983 174 0.994 0.320 -0.377 2.355 0.143 0.865 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 293 1.004 0.301 0.590 4.185 0.190 0.642 STANDARD DEVIATION 58 0.010 0.074 0.533 1.619 0.041 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 279 1.001 0.281 0.590 3.931 0.183 0.650 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 94 0.011 0.057 0.600 2.171 0.054 0.205 MINIMUM VALUE 174 0.991 0.192 -0.377 2.355 0.135 0.349 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 261 0.996 0.264 0.308 2.916 0.157 0.543 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 355 1.007 0.320 0.908 5.086 0.211 0.748 MAXIMUM VALUE 376 1.031 0.527 1.542 9.962 0.280 0.865 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 691011 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 691012 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 691021 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 691022 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 691031 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 691032 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 691041 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 691042 -67 241 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 691051 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 691052 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 691061 -67 189 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 691062 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 691071 -67 246 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 691072 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 691081 -67 241 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 691082 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 691091 -67 251 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 691092 -67 251 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 691101 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 691102 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 691111 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 691112 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 691121 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 691122 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 691131 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 691132 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 691011 1702 1983 282 0.989 0.300 0.723 5.953 0.173 0.765 2 691012 1715 1983 269 0.993 0.217 -0.278 3.072 0.179 0.524 3 691021 1723 1983 261 0.999 0.180 0.171 3.119 0.156 0.410 4 691022 1717 1983 267 0.994 0.212 -0.361 3.620 0.157 0.595 5 691031 1629 1983 355 0.999 0.268 0.632 3.742 0.216 0.506 6 691032 1629 1983 355 0.999 0.259 0.703 4.157 0.207 0.538 7 691041 1669 1983 315 0.998 0.317 0.740 4.634 0.273 0.310 8 691042 1623 1983 361 0.999 0.277 1.051 7.400 0.227 0.358 9 691051 1740 1983 244 0.996 0.191 -0.006 2.535 0.135 0.612 10 691052 1713 1983 271 0.994 0.231 -0.018 2.863 0.164 0.603 11 691061 1701 1983 283 0.982 0.216 -0.805 4.800 0.157 0.623 12 691062 1710 1983 274 0.990 0.190 -0.019 3.288 0.152 0.525 13 691071 1616 1983 368 0.998 0.201 0.747 4.769 0.154 0.523 14 691072 1629 1983 355 0.998 0.232 0.130 3.590 0.167 0.585 15 691081 1623 1983 361 0.987 0.284 0.063 2.691 0.265 0.414 16 691082 1644 1983 340 0.993 0.276 0.436 2.920 0.280 0.192 17 691091 1608 1983 376 0.998 0.233 0.346 3.619 0.200 0.383 18 691092 1608 1983 376 0.990 0.254 -0.112 2.806 0.234 0.369 19 691101 1724 1983 260 0.999 0.199 0.434 4.330 0.186 0.303 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 691102 1706 1983 278 0.994 0.271 0.394 3.968 0.207 0.522 21 691111 1732 1983 252 0.998 0.246 0.531 3.354 0.191 0.531 22 691112 1772 1983 212 0.997 0.274 0.526 3.701 0.211 0.577 23 691121 1704 1983 280 0.998 0.247 0.179 3.627 0.195 0.522 24 691122 1723 1983 261 0.998 0.236 0.353 3.314 0.164 0.588 25 691131 1801 1983 183 0.994 0.199 -0.005 3.071 0.142 0.599 26 691132 1810 1983 174 0.990 0.186 -0.397 2.943 0.143 0.595 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 293 0.995 0.238 0.237 3.765 0.190 0.503 STANDARD DEVIATION 58 0.004 0.038 0.430 1.081 0.041 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 279 0.997 0.234 0.262 3.604 0.182 0.524 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 94 0.006 0.070 0.549 1.086 0.054 0.185 MINIMUM VALUE 174 0.982 0.180 -0.805 2.535 0.135 0.192 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 261 0.993 0.201 -0.018 3.071 0.157 0.410 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 355 0.998 0.271 0.531 4.157 0.211 0.595 MAXIMUM VALUE 376 0.999 0.317 1.051 7.400 0.280 0.765 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.367 0.124 0.007 0.149 3.918 -0.006 0.859 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.006 SERIES 691062 AND 691071 274 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.859 SERIES 691111 AND 691112 212 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 69.04 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1633. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. CORR 1. 28. 36. 45. 105. 231. 253. 276. 325. 325. RBAR 0.631 0.380 0.514 0.554 0.220 0.277 0.338 0.525 0.471 0.408 SDEV 0.000 0.209 0.172 0.143 0.330 0.204 0.203 0.163 0.137 0.173 SERR 0.000 0.040 0.029 0.021 0.032 0.013 0.013 0.010 0.008 0.010 EPS 0.915 0.848 0.916 0.949 0.855 0.899 0.924 0.965 0.959 0.947 NSS 6.3 9.1 10.4 15.0 20.9 23.2 23.9 25.2 26.0 26.0 YEAR 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.289 0.247 0.456 SDEV 0.203 0.208 0.192 SERR 0.011 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.914 0.895 0.956 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1608 1983 376 0.988 0.153 0.225 3.705 0.141 0.373 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.347 0.133 0.044 128 248 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.69 1.00 1.07 1.76 13.73 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.55 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.372 0.315 0.275 0.206 0.214 0.116 0.024 0.049 0.078 0.069 PACF 0.372 0.205 0.128 0.039 0.078 -0.043 -0.101 0.008 0.067 0.034 95% C.L. 0.103 0.117 0.125 0.132 0.135 0.139 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.192 0.269 0.169 0.130 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.334 0.282 0.282 0.236 0.261 0.164 0.024 0.074 0.113 0.097 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.334 2 0.270 0.191 3 0.239 0.147 0.165 4 0.224 0.134 0.144 0.087 5 0.214 0.116 0.128 0.060 0.121 6 0.216 0.117 0.130 0.062 0.125 -0.015 7 0.213 0.136 0.139 0.081 0.142 0.016 -0.148 8 0.213 0.136 0.140 0.081 0.143 0.017 -0.147 -0.005 9 0.213 0.146 0.139 0.072 0.137 0.007 -0.156 -0.019 0.068 10 0.210 0.147 0.146 0.071 0.131 0.004 -0.162 -0.026 0.058 0.045 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3130.98 3088.38 3076.35 3067.94 3067.07 3063.50 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3065.41 3059.13 3061.12 3061.38 3062.62 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.214 0.116 0.128 0.060 0.121 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 18.62 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 122.88 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.214 0.162 0.188 0.146 0.208 0.121 0.100 0.094 0.077 0.0727 0.057 0.048 0.042 0.036 0.031 0.026 0.022 0.019 0.016 0.0138 0.012 0.010 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.0028 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 691011 5 0.634 0.512 0.174 0.013 0.110 0.071 2 691012 5 0.316 0.411 0.182 -0.024 0.066 0.042 3 691021 5 0.205 0.339 0.087 0.041 0.091 0.038 4 691022 5 0.405 0.450 0.068 0.095 0.047 0.114 5 691031 5 0.291 0.404 0.183 -0.046 0.058 0.054 6 691032 5 0.345 0.379 0.213 0.048 -0.012 0.087 7 691041 5 0.127 0.253 0.181 0.000 0.001 0.010 8 691042 5 0.168 0.283 0.114 0.105 -0.023 0.084 9 691051 5 0.437 0.451 0.089 0.178 0.052 -0.002 10 691052 5 0.435 0.406 0.158 0.061 0.100 0.068 11 691061 5 0.501 0.338 0.281 0.101 -0.015 0.126 12 691062 5 0.365 0.341 0.144 0.115 0.024 0.142 13 691071 5 0.317 0.395 0.148 0.130 -0.009 0.005 14 691072 5 0.411 0.388 0.159 0.060 0.036 0.145 15 691081 5 0.226 0.295 0.204 0.041 0.049 0.031 16 691082 5 0.121 0.111 0.212 0.112 -0.006 0.100 17 691091 5 0.188 0.292 0.120 0.079 0.076 0.020 18 691092 5 0.224 0.215 0.181 0.101 0.115 0.055 19 691101 5 0.143 0.251 0.026 0.057 0.073 0.144 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 691102 5 0.315 0.447 0.025 0.058 0.036 0.135 21 691111 5 0.334 0.397 0.097 0.174 -0.023 0.062 22 691112 5 0.379 0.471 0.118 0.193 -0.124 0.009 23 691121 5 0.299 0.447 0.039 0.120 0.026 0.023 24 691122 5 0.371 0.541 0.004 0.050 0.084 0.015 25 691131 5 0.414 0.478 0.122 0.070 0.004 0.062 26 691132 5 0.390 0.482 0.052 0.067 0.037 0.115 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.322 0.376 0.130 0.077 0.034 0.068 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.123 0.101 0.069 0.058 0.053 0.048 MEDIAN 5 0.326 0.396 0.133 0.069 0.036 0.062 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.181 0.155 0.094 0.064 0.078 0.091 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.121 0.111 0.004 -0.046 -0.124 -0.002 LOWER HINGE 5 0.224 0.295 0.087 0.048 -0.006 0.023 UPPER HINGE 5 0.405 0.450 0.181 0.112 0.073 0.114 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.634 0.541 0.281 0.193 0.115 0.145 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 691011 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.182 -0.033 4.515 0.202 0.006 2 691012 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.179 -0.550 3.556 0.210 0.000 3 691021 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.160 0.064 2.916 0.184 -0.005 4 691022 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.163 -0.651 4.237 0.181 0.000 5 691031 1629 1983 355 1.000 0.226 0.288 2.888 0.253 0.001 6 691032 1629 1983 355 1.000 0.210 0.384 3.175 0.239 -0.003 7 691041 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.296 0.779 5.011 0.299 -0.001 8 691042 1623 1983 361 1.000 0.253 1.419 12.453 0.256 0.002 9 691051 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.143 -0.179 2.760 0.162 0.007 10 691052 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.172 -0.157 3.151 0.195 -0.006 11 691061 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.150 -0.114 3.159 0.172 -0.018 12 691062 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.150 -0.013 3.092 0.173 -0.016 13 691071 1616 1983 368 1.000 0.166 0.409 3.956 0.190 -0.001 14 691072 1629 1983 355 1.000 0.178 0.192 3.814 0.196 0.005 15 691081 1623 1983 361 1.000 0.250 0.138 2.540 0.291 0.001 16 691082 1644 1983 340 1.000 0.259 0.149 2.882 0.290 -0.001 17 691091 1608 1983 376 1.000 0.210 0.201 3.404 0.230 -0.001 18 691092 1608 1983 376 1.000 0.224 -0.092 3.230 0.251 0.000 19 691101 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.185 0.230 3.501 0.203 0.013 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 691102 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.224 0.300 4.136 0.253 0.001 21 691111 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.201 0.487 3.561 0.225 0.002 22 691112 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.217 0.032 3.386 0.251 0.001 23 691121 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.207 -0.141 3.649 0.226 0.001 24 691122 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.187 0.456 3.638 0.202 -0.008 25 691131 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.154 -0.216 3.272 0.169 0.013 26 691132 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.145 -0.073 2.910 0.164 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 293 1.000 0.196 0.127 3.800 0.218 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 58 0.000 0.040 0.409 1.855 0.041 0.007 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 279 1.000 0.186 0.101 3.395 0.206 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 94 0.000 0.060 0.414 0.723 0.068 0.003 MINIMUM VALUE 174 1.000 0.143 -0.651 2.540 0.162 -0.018 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 261 1.000 0.163 -0.114 3.092 0.184 -0.001 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 355 1.000 0.224 0.300 3.814 0.251 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 376 1.000 0.296 1.419 12.453 0.299 0.013 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.437 0.095 0.005 0.490 4.046 0.156 0.825 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.156 SERIES 691042 AND 691132 174 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.825 SERIES 691111 AND 691112 212 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 69.04 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1633. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. CORR 1. 28. 36. 45. 105. 231. 253. 276. 325. 325. RBAR 0.549 0.431 0.538 0.613 0.378 0.383 0.432 0.526 0.527 0.490 SDEV 0.000 0.140 0.106 0.113 0.220 0.163 0.147 0.126 0.129 0.131 SERR 0.000 0.026 0.018 0.017 0.021 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.884 0.874 0.923 0.960 0.927 0.935 0.948 0.965 0.967 0.962 NSS 6.3 9.1 10.4 15.0 20.9 23.2 23.9 25.2 26.0 26.0 YEAR 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.367 0.328 0.449 SDEV 0.153 0.165 0.144 SERR 0.008 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.938 0.927 0.955 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1608 1983 376 0.996 0.133 -0.089 3.121 0.159 -0.088 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.263 0.083 0.057 140 236 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.55 1.00 1.07 1.61 7.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.69 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.088 -0.008 0.025 -0.024 0.030 -0.002 -0.115 -0.037 0.042 0.029 PACF -0.088 -0.016 0.023 -0.020 0.027 0.002 -0.115 -0.060 0.034 0.040 95% C.L. 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.105 0.106 0.106 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.008 -0.088 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.003 -0.001 0.001 -0.001 -0.008 -0.120 -0.042 0.039 0.032 PACF 0.000 0.003 -0.001 0.001 -0.001 -0.008 -0.120 -0.043 0.040 0.034 95% C.L. 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.105 0.105 0.105 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.000 0.000 0.003 -0.001 0.001 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1608 1983 376 0.995 0.144 0.153 3.571 0.137 0.310 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.309 0.248 0.245 0.200 0.223 0.124 0.020 0.055 0.101 0.082 PACF 0.309 0.168 0.148 0.076 0.110 -0.024 -0.105 -0.004 0.070 0.036 95% C.L. 0.103 0.113 0.118 0.124 0.127 0.131 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.133 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.159 0.211 0.106 0.118 0.055 0.112 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1033.24 MINUTES