RUN: CANA004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me3 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA088W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA088W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 721 1 Summit Lake Pass WIDTH_RING PCGL - 721 2 Canada White Spruce 1260 5840-12440 1770 1983 - 721 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 16 721082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1850 1850 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 721011 1841 1983 143 0.786 0.281 0.132 2.539 0.181 0.790 2 721012 1795 1983 189 0.833 0.320 0.933 3.682 0.178 0.762 3 721021 1830 1983 154 0.496 0.211 0.931 3.439 0.197 0.771 4 721022 1819 1983 165 0.353 0.176 1.331 5.402 0.221 0.751 5 721031 1870 1983 114 0.847 0.299 0.112 2.464 0.179 0.761 6 721032 1895 1983 89 1.041 0.283 -0.327 2.975 0.165 0.720 7 721041 1828 1983 156 0.834 0.483 0.494 2.641 0.225 0.828 8 721042 1827 1983 157 0.959 0.545 0.225 2.349 0.231 0.845 9 721051 1878 1983 106 1.152 0.441 1.016 3.829 0.178 0.809 10 721052 1867 1983 117 1.046 0.460 0.515 2.998 0.172 0.852 11 721061 1877 1983 107 1.583 0.508 0.004 2.417 0.191 0.719 12 721062 1870 1983 114 1.301 0.589 0.394 2.622 0.196 0.824 13 721071 1770 1983 214 0.599 0.166 0.509 4.071 0.193 0.556 14 721072 1782 1983 202 0.481 0.117 0.812 4.630 0.180 0.536 15 721081 1778 1983 206 0.298 0.157 1.239 3.578 0.193 0.885 16 721082 1800 1983 184 0.512 0.272 1.454 4.830 0.210 0.875 17 721101 1855 1983 129 0.900 0.558 0.829 2.864 0.248 0.870 18 721102 1891 1983 93 0.946 0.215 0.224 3.284 0.182 0.472 19 721111 1862 1983 122 0.495 0.204 0.019 2.566 0.174 0.828 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 721112 1864 1970 107 0.655 0.179 0.902 3.768 0.185 0.638 21 721121 1785 1983 199 0.390 0.148 0.916 3.531 0.166 0.817 22 721122 1784 1983 200 0.353 0.113 1.122 3.926 0.167 0.727 23 721131 1828 1983 156 0.879 0.376 0.816 3.416 0.184 0.865 24 721161 1780 1973 194 0.701 0.260 0.640 3.185 0.171 0.833 25 721172 1806 1983 178 0.637 0.228 0.341 3.300 0.202 0.781 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 25 FROM 1770 TO 1983 214 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 0.763 0.303 0.623 3.372 0.191 0.765 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.318 0.149 0.461 0.790 0.022 0.109 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 0.786 0.272 0.640 3.300 0.184 0.790 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.451 0.262 0.706 1.127 0.019 0.106 MINIMUM VALUE 89 0.298 0.113 -0.327 2.349 0.165 0.472 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 0.496 0.179 0.225 2.641 0.178 0.727 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 0.946 0.441 0.931 3.768 0.197 0.833 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.583 0.589 1.454 5.402 0.248 0.885 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.228 0.366 0.021 -0.210 2.219 -0.605 0.954 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.605 SERIES 721111 AND 721131 122 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.954 SERIES 721041 AND 721042 156 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.66 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 28. 91. 120. 253. 300. 253. RBAR 0.218 0.328 0.282 0.283 0.167 0.326 SDEV 0.333 0.303 0.291 0.343 0.341 0.351 SERR 0.063 0.032 0.027 0.022 0.020 0.022 EPS 0.772 0.891 0.894 0.906 0.834 0.923 NSS 12.1 16.7 21.4 24.5 25.0 24.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.628 0.144 -0.372 2.781 0.131 0.734 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.853 0.938 -0.253 83 131 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 1.06 1.01 1.11 2.17 66.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 156. 75. 89. 114. 189. 214. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.731 0.650 0.622 0.549 0.497 0.488 0.460 0.376 0.363 0.368 PACF 0.731 0.249 0.191 0.009 0.015 0.085 0.041 -0.112 0.031 0.081 95% C.L. 0.137 0.197 0.233 0.262 0.283 0.299 0.314 0.326 0.334 0.341 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.616 0.469 0.148 0.244 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 721011 1 0.37909147 0.04567286 0.00000000 0.72930038 2 721012 1 0.85660738 0.00993190 0.00000000 0.44858477 3 721021 1 0.51283753 0.07699590 0.00000000 0.45410773 4 721022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00261085 0.56991279 5 721031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00141556 0.92867565 6 721032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00646902 1.33245409 7 721041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00927777 1.56279242 8 721042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01008208 1.75572026 9 721051 1 1.34461331 0.04238144 0.00000000 0.86235309 10 721052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01003642 1.63838780 11 721061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01271596 2.26918530 12 721062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01376250 2.09248400 13 721071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004204 0.60377121 14 721072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00095656 0.57773459 15 721081 1 0.51811516 0.01790507 0.00000000 0.16262215 16 721082 1 0.93780029 0.03518688 0.00000000 0.36964405 17 721101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01116821 1.62593389 18 721102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00165707 1.02411878 19 721111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00435492 0.76282752 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 721112 1 0.17748699 0.03284335 0.00000000 0.60684675 21 721121 1 0.48758984 0.05591648 0.00000000 0.34784842 22 721122 1 0.36366832 0.06132213 0.00000000 0.32404819 23 721131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00473800 0.50755417 24 721161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00339633 0.36983761 25 721172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00280196 0.38585413 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 721011 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.353 0.372 3.020 0.180 0.788 2 721012 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.289 0.392 2.543 0.176 0.669 3 721021 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.401 1.278 5.107 0.195 0.753 4 721022 1819 1983 165 1.005 0.325 0.908 3.803 0.220 0.536 5 721031 1870 1983 114 0.999 0.349 0.146 2.436 0.178 0.755 6 721032 1895 1983 89 0.997 0.233 0.523 3.738 0.162 0.619 7 721041 1828 1983 156 0.998 0.260 0.213 3.981 0.225 0.405 8 721042 1827 1983 157 0.969 0.282 -0.246 2.812 0.228 0.512 9 721051 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.257 0.116 2.526 0.177 0.607 10 721052 1867 1983 117 0.993 0.297 0.456 2.431 0.171 0.724 11 721061 1877 1983 107 0.995 0.201 0.090 3.279 0.189 0.338 12 721062 1870 1983 114 0.985 0.252 0.022 2.953 0.194 0.534 13 721071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.276 0.494 4.066 0.192 0.552 14 721072 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.212 0.889 5.150 0.179 0.387 15 721081 1778 1983 206 1.002 0.274 0.426 3.088 0.192 0.581 16 721082 1800 1983 184 1.001 0.335 0.642 3.686 0.208 0.636 17 721101 1855 1983 129 0.991 0.340 0.636 3.417 0.246 0.615 18 721102 1891 1983 93 1.000 0.220 0.072 3.178 0.180 0.430 19 721111 1862 1983 122 0.988 0.290 0.843 4.360 0.173 0.723 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 721112 1864 1970 107 1.000 0.267 1.041 4.093 0.183 0.607 21 721121 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.326 1.179 4.852 0.166 0.751 22 721122 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.273 1.371 5.303 0.166 0.654 23 721131 1828 1983 156 1.008 0.376 0.741 3.732 0.184 0.701 24 721161 1780 1973 194 1.002 0.252 0.257 2.942 0.171 0.622 25 721172 1806 1983 178 1.001 0.293 0.241 3.485 0.201 0.659 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 0.997 0.289 0.524 3.599 0.189 0.606 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.008 0.051 0.423 0.861 0.021 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.282 0.456 3.485 0.183 0.619 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.003 0.069 0.630 1.113 0.019 0.165 MINIMUM VALUE 89 0.969 0.201 -0.246 2.431 0.162 0.338 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 0.997 0.257 0.213 2.953 0.176 0.536 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.000 0.326 0.843 4.066 0.195 0.701 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.008 0.401 1.371 5.303 0.246 0.788 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 721011 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 721012 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 721021 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 721022 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 721031 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 721032 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 721041 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 721042 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 721051 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 721052 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 721061 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 721062 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 721071 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 721072 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 721081 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 721082 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 721101 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 721102 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 721111 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 721112 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 721121 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 721122 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 721131 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 721161 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 721172 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 721011 1841 1983 143 0.988 0.311 0.206 2.565 0.179 0.740 2 721012 1795 1983 189 0.996 0.262 0.259 2.435 0.176 0.612 3 721021 1830 1983 154 0.985 0.301 1.036 5.080 0.194 0.622 4 721022 1819 1983 165 0.996 0.307 0.967 3.989 0.219 0.497 5 721031 1870 1983 114 0.994 0.172 0.517 3.271 0.175 0.037 6 721032 1895 1983 89 0.997 0.175 1.052 4.808 0.164 0.339 7 721041 1828 1983 156 0.998 0.249 0.083 3.674 0.224 0.345 8 721042 1827 1983 157 0.998 0.262 0.059 3.368 0.228 0.360 9 721051 1878 1983 106 0.995 0.224 0.304 2.783 0.177 0.506 10 721052 1867 1983 117 0.993 0.265 0.623 2.775 0.170 0.677 11 721061 1877 1983 107 0.999 0.182 0.066 2.971 0.189 0.200 12 721062 1870 1983 114 0.996 0.211 0.163 2.939 0.194 0.344 13 721071 1770 1983 214 0.996 0.227 0.888 4.576 0.192 0.376 14 721072 1782 1983 202 0.999 0.200 0.710 4.436 0.179 0.330 15 721081 1778 1983 206 0.997 0.244 0.617 3.829 0.192 0.484 16 721082 1800 1983 184 0.998 0.320 0.597 3.755 0.208 0.611 17 721101 1855 1983 129 0.987 0.266 0.323 3.576 0.244 0.404 18 721102 1891 1983 93 0.998 0.204 -0.031 3.743 0.180 0.338 19 721111 1862 1983 122 0.996 0.246 1.105 5.302 0.172 0.582 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 721112 1864 1970 107 0.998 0.249 0.885 3.868 0.183 0.560 21 721121 1785 1983 199 0.993 0.251 0.665 3.511 0.166 0.636 22 721122 1784 1983 200 0.999 0.251 1.288 5.909 0.166 0.582 23 721131 1828 1983 156 0.992 0.290 0.037 2.732 0.183 0.666 24 721161 1780 1973 194 0.997 0.236 0.306 3.222 0.170 0.574 25 721172 1806 1983 178 0.995 0.271 0.126 3.377 0.200 0.600 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 0.995 0.247 0.514 3.700 0.189 0.481 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.004 0.041 0.396 0.897 0.021 0.168 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 0.996 0.249 0.517 3.576 0.183 0.506 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.003 0.041 0.721 1.018 0.019 0.266 MINIMUM VALUE 89 0.985 0.172 -0.031 2.435 0.164 0.037 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 0.994 0.224 0.163 2.971 0.175 0.345 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 0.998 0.266 0.885 3.989 0.194 0.611 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 0.999 0.320 1.288 5.909 0.244 0.740 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.263 0.185 0.011 0.184 3.061 -0.170 0.830 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.170 SERIES 721052 AND 721161 107 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.830 SERIES 721061 AND 721062 107 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.66 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 28. 91. 120. 253. 300. 253. RBAR 0.268 0.370 0.298 0.298 0.260 0.296 SDEV 0.249 0.226 0.287 0.252 0.256 0.241 SERR 0.047 0.024 0.026 0.016 0.015 0.015 EPS 0.816 0.908 0.901 0.912 0.898 0.912 NSS 12.1 16.7 21.4 24.5 25.0 24.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.980 0.145 0.252 3.257 0.125 0.416 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.336 0.168 0.035 63 151 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.48 1.00 1.08 1.55 15.09 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.414 0.290 0.319 0.223 0.162 0.142 0.132 0.029 0.015 0.022 PACF 0.414 0.142 0.194 0.022 0.005 0.008 0.029 -0.088 -0.023 -0.003 95% C.L. 0.137 0.158 0.168 0.179 0.184 0.187 0.189 0.191 0.191 0.191 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.222 0.327 0.074 0.197 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.397 0.330 0.349 0.241 0.181 0.140 0.130 -0.004 -0.006 -0.062 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.397 2 0.316 0.205 3 0.274 0.142 0.202 4 0.269 0.138 0.195 0.023 5 0.270 0.140 0.196 0.025 -0.008 6 0.269 0.140 0.201 0.028 -0.002 -0.021 7 0.270 0.140 0.200 0.024 -0.005 -0.027 0.023 8 0.273 0.137 0.199 0.027 0.020 -0.009 0.058 -0.128 9 0.269 0.139 0.199 0.027 0.021 -0.003 0.063 -0.119 -0.034 10 0.266 0.129 0.204 0.027 0.023 0.000 0.079 -0.108 -0.012 -0.081 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1567.11 1532.40 1525.19 1518.29 1520.18 1522.16 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1524.07 1525.95 1524.40 1526.16 1526.75 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.274 0.142 0.202 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 22.60 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 129.19 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.274 0.217 0.300 0.168 0.132 0.121 0.086 0.067 0.055 0.0419 0.033 0.026 0.020 0.016 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.006 0.005 0.0037 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 721011 3 0.602 0.500 0.251 0.087 2 721012 3 0.445 0.436 0.092 0.243 3 721021 3 0.421 0.491 0.099 0.144 4 721022 3 0.297 0.366 0.244 0.023 5 721031 3 0.050 0.009 0.140 0.159 6 721032 3 0.140 0.292 0.138 0.013 7 721041 3 0.160 0.280 0.079 0.169 8 721042 3 0.168 0.352 -0.048 0.194 9 721051 3 0.282 0.485 0.086 -0.053 10 721052 3 0.493 0.511 0.202 0.052 11 721061 3 0.049 0.207 -0.027 0.085 12 721062 3 0.133 0.323 0.034 0.079 13 721071 3 0.169 0.315 0.089 0.115 14 721072 3 0.165 0.259 0.074 0.205 15 721081 3 0.263 0.397 0.091 0.125 16 721082 3 0.407 0.481 0.159 0.067 17 721101 3 0.234 0.340 0.013 0.252 18 721102 3 0.138 0.289 0.120 0.039 19 721111 3 0.359 0.612 0.007 -0.054 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 721112 3 0.324 0.577 -0.028 0.019 21 721121 3 0.443 0.479 0.146 0.125 22 721122 3 0.365 0.479 0.143 0.050 23 721131 3 0.470 0.666 -0.047 0.098 24 721161 3 0.378 0.447 0.062 0.211 25 721172 3 0.369 0.547 0.032 0.085 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.293 0.406 0.086 0.101 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.148 0.144 0.083 0.083 MEDIAN 3 0.297 0.436 0.089 0.087 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.242 0.177 0.108 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.049 0.009 -0.048 -0.054 LOWER HINGE 3 0.165 0.315 0.032 0.050 UPPER HINGE 3 0.407 0.491 0.140 0.159 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.602 0.666 0.251 0.252 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 721011 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.196 0.254 3.241 0.216 0.007 2 721012 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.195 0.533 3.840 0.208 0.016 3 721021 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.229 1.412 6.996 0.237 0.003 4 721022 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.257 1.450 7.093 0.259 -0.002 5 721031 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.168 0.508 3.160 0.171 0.008 6 721032 1895 1983 89 1.000 0.163 0.744 3.626 0.188 0.000 7 721041 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.228 -0.005 3.985 0.248 0.000 8 721042 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.239 -0.017 3.535 0.263 -0.012 9 721051 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.191 0.468 3.759 0.217 0.000 10 721052 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.189 -0.111 3.219 0.215 0.000 11 721061 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.177 0.037 2.730 0.206 -0.002 12 721062 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.196 0.301 3.372 0.222 -0.010 13 721071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.207 0.859 4.505 0.221 0.004 14 721072 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.183 0.701 4.917 0.201 -0.013 15 721081 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.210 0.542 3.959 0.229 -0.003 16 721082 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.248 0.640 4.877 0.257 0.006 17 721101 1855 1983 129 1.000 0.233 0.156 2.775 0.269 -0.022 18 721102 1891 1983 93 1.000 0.190 -0.446 4.246 0.206 -0.004 19 721111 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.195 0.461 3.679 0.213 -0.010 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 721112 1864 1970 107 1.000 0.204 0.209 3.130 0.222 -0.005 21 721121 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.188 0.410 3.598 0.202 -0.005 22 721122 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.201 1.369 9.349 0.209 -0.004 23 721131 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.210 0.226 4.487 0.228 -0.007 24 721161 1780 1973 194 1.000 0.186 0.552 3.615 0.198 0.001 25 721172 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.215 0.233 3.335 0.241 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.204 0.459 4.201 0.222 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.024 0.464 1.524 0.024 0.008 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.196 0.461 3.679 0.217 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.000 0.026 0.431 1.152 0.030 0.006 MINIMUM VALUE 89 1.000 0.163 -0.446 2.730 0.171 -0.022 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.189 0.209 3.335 0.206 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.000 0.215 0.640 4.487 0.237 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.257 1.450 9.349 0.269 0.016 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.310 0.157 0.009 0.168 3.328 -0.099 0.853 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.099 SERIES 721102 AND 721172 93 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.853 SERIES 721061 AND 721062 107 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.66 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 28. 91. 120. 253. 300. 253. RBAR 0.314 0.338 0.275 0.335 0.381 0.352 SDEV 0.222 0.189 0.256 0.197 0.178 0.164 SERR 0.042 0.020 0.023 0.012 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.847 0.895 0.891 0.925 0.939 0.930 NSS 12.1 16.7 21.4 24.5 25.0 24.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.988 0.126 0.249 3.267 0.149 -0.084 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.304 0.149 0.004 67 147 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.66 1.00 1.08 1.74 224.27 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.084 -0.058 0.056 -0.050 0.024 -0.001 0.077 0.000 -0.036 0.034 PACF -0.084 -0.065 0.046 -0.045 0.023 -0.005 0.085 0.008 -0.023 0.021 95% C.L. 0.137 0.138 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.140 0.140 0.140 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 -0.004 -0.001 -0.047 0.031 0.005 0.080 0.006 -0.030 0.019 PACF 0.002 -0.004 -0.001 -0.047 0.031 0.004 0.080 0.003 -0.027 0.019 95% C.L. 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.138 0.138 0.138 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.002 0.002 -0.004 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.987 0.143 0.241 3.248 0.126 0.400 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.398 0.333 0.347 0.204 0.200 0.158 0.161 0.086 0.034 0.044 PACF 0.398 0.208 0.198 -0.023 0.042 0.000 0.060 -0.053 -0.057 -0.007 95% C.L. 0.137 0.157 0.170 0.182 0.187 0.191 0.193 0.196 0.196 0.196 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.230 0.273 0.146 0.203 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES