RUN: CANA004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me3 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA088T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA088T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 721 1 Summit Lake Pass DENSITY_LATE PCGL - 721 2 Canada White Spruce 1260 5840-12440 1770 1983 - 721 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 16 721082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1850 1850 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 721011 1841 1983 143 6.448 0.572 -0.144 3.034 0.070 0.400 2 721012 1795 1983 189 6.338 0.552 -0.626 3.647 0.079 0.326 3 721021 1830 1983 154 6.615 0.513 -0.090 3.117 0.076 0.298 4 721022 1819 1983 165 6.114 0.545 0.078 2.754 0.077 0.366 5 721031 1870 1983 114 6.901 0.691 -0.870 3.496 0.066 0.635 6 721032 1895 1983 89 7.020 0.576 -0.097 2.752 0.072 0.375 7 721041 1828 1983 156 5.298 0.577 0.408 2.693 0.068 0.680 8 721042 1827 1983 157 5.857 0.753 -0.486 2.316 0.080 0.693 9 721051 1878 1983 106 6.734 0.516 -0.239 2.861 0.074 0.212 10 721052 1867 1983 117 6.381 0.661 -0.855 3.532 0.072 0.561 11 721061 1877 1983 107 6.220 0.602 -0.438 2.825 0.106 0.126 12 721062 1870 1983 114 6.130 0.688 -0.161 2.380 0.097 0.410 13 721071 1770 1983 214 6.371 0.528 -0.168 3.123 0.054 0.659 14 721072 1782 1983 202 6.500 0.492 -0.619 3.287 0.061 0.497 15 721081 1778 1983 206 5.795 0.701 0.171 2.445 0.076 0.693 16 721082 1800 1983 184 7.025 0.807 -0.581 2.682 0.065 0.756 17 721101 1855 1983 129 6.749 0.523 -0.413 3.767 0.066 0.438 18 721102 1891 1983 93 6.367 0.555 0.049 2.136 0.082 0.309 19 721111 1862 1983 122 6.730 0.649 -0.302 2.202 0.060 0.685 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 721112 1864 1970 107 6.680 0.578 0.612 4.067 0.052 0.689 21 721121 1785 1983 199 6.284 0.622 0.473 2.785 0.064 0.659 22 721122 1784 1983 200 6.170 0.546 0.087 2.754 0.065 0.591 23 721131 1828 1983 156 6.101 0.511 -0.291 2.572 0.067 0.476 24 721161 1780 1973 194 5.993 0.587 -0.405 2.398 0.054 0.751 25 721172 1806 1983 178 6.094 0.517 -0.279 3.102 0.061 0.584 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 25 FROM 1770 TO 1983 214 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 6.357 0.594 -0.207 2.909 0.071 0.515 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.405 0.082 0.382 0.506 0.012 0.180 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 6.367 0.576 -0.239 2.785 0.068 0.561 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.566 0.121 0.486 0.550 0.012 0.305 MINIMUM VALUE 89 5.298 0.492 -0.870 2.136 0.052 0.126 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 6.114 0.528 -0.438 2.572 0.064 0.375 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 6.680 0.649 0.049 3.123 0.076 0.680 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 7.025 0.807 0.612 4.067 0.106 0.756 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.251 0.240 0.014 -0.439 2.912 -0.516 0.783 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.516 SERIES 721121 AND 721161 189 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.783 SERIES 721031 AND 721032 89 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.66 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 28. 91. 120. 253. 300. 253. RBAR 0.115 0.119 0.194 0.289 0.238 0.404 SDEV 0.289 0.271 0.225 0.228 0.203 0.193 SERR 0.055 0.028 0.021 0.014 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.611 0.694 0.838 0.908 0.886 0.944 NSS 12.1 16.7 21.4 24.5 25.0 24.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 6.312 0.308 -0.507 3.494 0.046 0.283 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.008 0.005 0.586 62 152 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.41 1.00 1.06 1.47 32.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 156. 75. 89. 114. 189. 214. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.281 0.310 0.211 0.228 0.093 0.141 0.160 0.106 0.065 0.104 PACF 0.281 0.250 0.087 0.107 -0.050 0.044 0.096 0.000 -0.028 0.037 95% C.L. 0.137 0.147 0.159 0.164 0.170 0.171 0.173 0.176 0.177 0.177 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.150 0.210 0.261 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 721011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00066594 6.40023422 2 721012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00194444 6.52223444 3 721021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00207148 6.77508545 4 721022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00252830 6.32336426 5 721031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00115583 6.83424139 6 721032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01177886 7.55027342 7 721041 1 1.80428624 0.01276479 0.00000000 4.52024364 8 721042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01113022 6.73629332 9 721051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00457924 6.48925591 10 721052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00124092 6.30772638 11 721061 1 0.63956386 0.07360856 0.00000000 6.14168644 12 721062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01192969 6.81613255 13 721071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00294805 6.05429888 14 721072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00439484 6.94558144 15 721081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00743684 6.56515026 16 721082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00191781 7.20631218 17 721101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00101621 6.68262863 18 721102 1 1.74369514 0.01206114 0.00000000 5.32505608 19 721111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063105 6.76856375 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 721112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01005848 6.13637447 21 721121 1 1.61000752 0.01033941 0.00000000 5.60552645 22 721122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045644 6.12447786 23 721131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00387625 5.79699659 24 721161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00418393 5.58546877 25 721172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010056 6.08549404 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 721011 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.089 -0.177 3.106 0.070 0.394 2 721012 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.086 -0.604 3.758 0.079 0.294 3 721021 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.076 -0.148 3.096 0.075 0.275 4 721022 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.087 0.068 2.955 0.076 0.333 5 721031 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.100 -0.831 3.352 0.065 0.631 6 721032 1895 1983 89 1.000 0.070 0.176 2.709 0.071 0.130 7 721041 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.072 -0.104 3.100 0.067 0.289 8 721042 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.096 0.035 2.615 0.080 0.448 9 721051 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.073 -0.480 3.035 0.074 0.151 10 721052 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.104 -0.729 3.275 0.071 0.559 11 721061 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.095 -0.416 2.907 0.105 0.087 12 721062 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.092 -0.082 2.673 0.096 0.118 13 721071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.077 -0.514 3.266 0.054 0.619 14 721072 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.065 -0.339 3.105 0.061 0.322 15 721081 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.093 0.150 2.588 0.076 0.481 16 721082 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.113 -0.732 2.866 0.065 0.740 17 721101 1855 1983 129 1.000 0.077 -0.462 3.773 0.066 0.429 18 721102 1891 1983 93 1.000 0.070 0.096 3.519 0.081 -0.104 19 721111 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.096 -0.299 2.183 0.059 0.679 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 721112 1864 1970 107 1.000 0.073 0.345 2.716 0.052 0.598 21 721121 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.076 0.118 2.547 0.064 0.399 22 721122 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.088 0.077 2.768 0.065 0.586 23 721131 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.078 -0.319 2.664 0.066 0.411 24 721161 1780 1973 194 1.000 0.090 -0.278 2.391 0.054 0.707 25 721172 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.085 -0.272 3.096 0.061 0.581 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.085 -0.229 2.962 0.070 0.406 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.012 0.318 0.396 0.012 0.218 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.086 -0.272 2.955 0.067 0.411 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.000 0.017 0.530 0.433 0.012 0.297 MINIMUM VALUE 89 1.000 0.065 -0.831 2.183 0.052 -0.104 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.076 -0.462 2.673 0.064 0.289 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.000 0.093 0.068 3.106 0.076 0.586 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.113 0.345 3.773 0.105 0.740 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 721011 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 721012 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 721021 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 721022 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 721031 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 721032 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 721041 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 721042 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 721051 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 721052 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 721061 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 721062 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 721071 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 721072 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 721081 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 721082 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 721101 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 721102 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 721111 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 721112 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 721121 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 721122 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 721131 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 721161 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 721172 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 721011 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.073 -0.530 3.937 0.069 0.123 2 721012 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.082 -0.743 4.101 0.079 0.231 3 721021 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.072 -0.083 3.340 0.075 0.194 4 721022 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.083 0.114 3.108 0.076 0.275 5 721031 1870 1983 114 0.999 0.069 -0.188 3.072 0.065 0.271 6 721032 1895 1983 89 1.000 0.066 0.087 2.923 0.072 0.043 7 721041 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.068 -0.144 3.070 0.067 0.204 8 721042 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.077 -0.335 3.148 0.080 0.162 9 721051 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.067 -0.449 3.574 0.074 -0.022 10 721052 1867 1983 117 0.999 0.084 -0.108 2.997 0.071 0.387 11 721061 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.090 -0.413 2.860 0.105 -0.002 12 721062 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.086 -0.337 3.160 0.096 0.019 13 721071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.066 -0.056 2.884 0.054 0.487 14 721072 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.059 -0.243 3.165 0.061 0.188 15 721081 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.087 0.084 2.521 0.076 0.417 16 721082 1800 1983 184 0.999 0.090 -0.507 3.090 0.065 0.595 17 721101 1855 1983 129 1.000 0.064 -0.677 5.402 0.066 0.181 18 721102 1891 1983 93 1.000 0.066 0.019 3.438 0.081 -0.209 19 721111 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.068 0.220 3.077 0.059 0.345 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 721112 1864 1970 107 1.000 0.059 0.104 2.819 0.052 0.432 21 721121 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.068 0.054 2.578 0.064 0.259 22 721122 1784 1983 200 0.999 0.071 -0.015 3.224 0.065 0.371 23 721131 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.063 0.010 2.666 0.066 0.087 24 721161 1780 1973 194 1.000 0.067 -0.278 2.768 0.054 0.468 25 721172 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.071 -0.259 2.849 0.061 0.386 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.073 -0.187 3.191 0.070 0.236 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.009 0.262 0.592 0.012 0.188 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.069 -0.144 3.077 0.067 0.231 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.000 0.015 0.355 0.364 0.012 0.264 MINIMUM VALUE 89 0.999 0.059 -0.743 2.521 0.052 -0.209 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.066 -0.337 2.860 0.064 0.123 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.000 0.082 0.019 3.224 0.076 0.386 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.090 0.220 5.402 0.105 0.595 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.283 0.169 0.010 -0.266 3.334 -0.256 0.786 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.256 SERIES 721031 AND 721161 104 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.786 SERIES 721061 AND 721062 107 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.66 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 28. 91. 120. 253. 300. 253. RBAR 0.150 0.133 0.217 0.319 0.251 0.349 SDEV 0.226 0.214 0.219 0.200 0.194 0.161 SERR 0.043 0.022 0.020 0.013 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.681 0.719 0.856 0.920 0.893 0.930 NSS 12.1 16.7 21.4 24.5 25.0 24.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.040 -0.286 3.208 0.044 0.004 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.062 -0.034 0.094 50 164 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.38 1.00 1.10 1.48 13.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 0.149 -0.017 0.020 -0.101 -0.033 -0.036 -0.048 -0.041 -0.033 PACF 0.004 0.149 -0.019 -0.002 -0.098 -0.036 -0.007 -0.042 -0.035 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.137 0.137 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.142 0.142 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.023 0.003 0.150 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.048 0.196 -0.082 0.043 -0.172 -0.121 -0.024 -0.006 0.002 0.029 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.048 2 -0.039 0.194 3 -0.026 0.191 -0.068 4 -0.026 0.191 -0.068 0.001 5 -0.025 0.181 -0.040 -0.003 -0.149 6 -0.048 0.180 -0.046 0.024 -0.152 -0.153 7 -0.044 0.185 -0.047 0.026 -0.158 -0.151 0.030 8 -0.044 0.189 -0.042 0.025 -0.157 -0.156 0.032 0.026 9 -0.044 0.189 -0.043 0.024 -0.157 -0.157 0.033 0.026 -0.007 10 -0.044 0.189 -0.044 0.026 -0.155 -0.157 0.033 0.024 -0.006 0.010 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1045.97 1047.48 1041.28 1042.28 1044.28 1041.51 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1038.45 1040.25 1042.10 1044.09 1046.07 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.039 0.194 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.98 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.14 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.039 0.195 -0.015 0.038 -0.004 0.008 -0.001 0.002 0.000 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 721011 2 0.051 0.102 0.177 2 721012 2 0.069 0.202 0.126 3 721021 2 0.063 0.164 0.160 4 721022 2 0.129 0.213 0.236 5 721031 2 0.217 0.168 0.382 6 721032 2 0.049 0.037 0.155 7 721041 2 0.091 0.160 0.218 8 721042 2 0.087 0.125 0.232 9 721051 2 0.005 -0.020 0.063 10 721052 2 0.219 0.286 0.269 11 721061 2 0.021 -0.002 0.143 12 721062 2 0.019 0.016 0.124 13 721071 2 0.285 0.396 0.194 14 721072 2 0.045 0.171 0.093 15 721081 2 0.211 0.382 0.085 16 721082 2 0.378 0.588 0.014 17 721101 2 0.114 0.134 0.264 18 721102 2 0.047 -0.197 0.057 19 721111 2 0.199 0.268 0.233 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 721112 2 0.250 0.342 0.224 21 721121 2 0.089 0.246 0.070 22 721122 2 0.152 0.330 0.113 23 721131 2 0.082 0.065 0.250 24 721161 2 0.236 0.403 0.140 25 721172 2 0.184 0.333 0.147 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.132 0.196 0.167 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.097 0.169 0.084 MEDIAN 2 0.091 0.171 0.155 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.160 0.228 0.119 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.005 -0.197 0.014 LOWER HINGE 2 0.051 0.102 0.113 UPPER HINGE 2 0.211 0.330 0.232 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.378 0.588 0.382 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 721011 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.071 -0.740 4.786 0.074 -0.012 2 721012 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.079 -0.883 4.717 0.087 -0.005 3 721021 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.070 -0.064 3.355 0.081 0.001 4 721022 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.077 0.041 3.528 0.083 0.001 5 721031 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.062 -0.206 2.537 0.066 0.033 6 721032 1895 1983 89 1.000 0.066 -0.006 3.094 0.071 0.024 7 721041 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.065 -0.262 3.468 0.071 0.013 8 721042 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.073 -0.513 3.401 0.085 -0.022 9 721051 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.067 -0.426 3.674 0.072 0.001 10 721052 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.074 -0.222 3.925 0.078 0.017 11 721061 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.089 -0.516 3.049 0.104 0.001 12 721062 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.086 -0.377 3.362 0.097 -0.007 13 721071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.057 0.232 2.712 0.065 -0.026 14 721072 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.058 -0.115 2.887 0.066 -0.004 15 721081 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.079 0.138 2.834 0.091 -0.016 16 721082 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.072 -0.308 3.522 0.081 -0.002 17 721101 1855 1983 129 1.000 0.061 -0.819 5.466 0.068 0.032 18 721102 1891 1983 93 1.000 0.065 0.073 3.283 0.071 0.000 19 721111 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.062 0.066 3.416 0.065 0.042 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 721112 1864 1970 107 1.000 0.051 -0.331 3.222 0.059 0.041 21 721121 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.065 0.136 2.765 0.072 -0.012 22 721122 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.065 -0.120 2.930 0.076 -0.008 23 721131 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.061 0.040 2.806 0.067 0.028 24 721161 1780 1973 194 1.000 0.058 -0.483 3.678 0.065 0.007 25 721172 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.064 -0.243 3.129 0.070 0.012 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.068 -0.236 3.422 0.075 0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.009 0.306 0.692 0.011 0.019 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.065 -0.222 3.355 0.072 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.000 0.012 0.466 0.598 0.015 0.024 MINIMUM VALUE 89 1.000 0.051 -0.883 2.537 0.059 -0.026 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.062 -0.426 2.930 0.067 -0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.000 0.073 0.040 3.528 0.081 0.017 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.089 0.232 5.466 0.104 0.042 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.311 0.159 0.009 -0.283 3.238 -0.099 0.789 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.099 SERIES 721031 AND 721161 104 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.789 SERIES 721061 AND 721062 107 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.66 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 28. 91. 120. 253. 300. 253. RBAR 0.160 0.161 0.294 0.369 0.242 0.364 SDEV 0.243 0.217 0.203 0.172 0.182 0.158 SERR 0.046 0.023 0.019 0.011 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.698 0.762 0.899 0.935 0.889 0.934 NSS 12.1 16.7 21.4 24.5 25.0 24.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.040 -0.435 3.585 0.048 -0.181 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.091 -0.043 0.096 57 157 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.45 1.01 1.05 1.50 61.63 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.180 -0.019 -0.016 0.014 -0.103 -0.018 0.011 -0.018 -0.035 0.002 PACF -0.180 -0.053 -0.030 0.005 -0.105 -0.059 -0.012 -0.027 -0.048 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.137 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.143 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.035 -0.180 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.005 -0.032 -0.011 -0.112 -0.038 -0.004 -0.025 -0.040 -0.004 PACF -0.002 -0.005 -0.032 -0.012 -0.112 -0.040 -0.006 -0.034 -0.047 -0.019 95% C.L. 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.139 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 -0.002 -0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.040 -0.376 3.372 0.045 -0.063 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.063 0.190 -0.069 0.025 -0.122 -0.031 -0.032 -0.031 -0.042 -0.020 PACF -0.063 0.187 -0.050 -0.017 -0.104 -0.048 0.006 -0.030 -0.046 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.137 0.137 0.142 0.143 0.143 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.145 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.042 -0.051 0.187 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.06 MINUTES