RUN: CANA004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me3 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA088N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA088N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 721 1 Summit Lake Pass DENSITY_MINIMUM PCGL - 721 2 Canada White Spruce 1260 5840-12440 1770 1983 - 721 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 721011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1916 1920 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 721042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1977 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 721061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1962 1967 / 1971 1975 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 721071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1964 1969 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 721082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1850 1850 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 721121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1819 1823 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 721172 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 2 GAPS / 1954 1958 / 1961 1967 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 721011 1841 1983 143 0.307 0.023 0.871 4.855 0.050 0.606 2 721012 1795 1983 189 0.300 0.023 1.482 6.427 0.052 0.486 3 721021 1830 1983 154 0.368 0.039 1.246 4.145 0.061 0.673 4 721022 1819 1983 165 0.355 0.026 0.460 3.367 0.055 0.459 5 721031 1870 1983 114 0.301 0.030 1.674 9.860 0.056 0.583 6 721032 1895 1983 89 0.309 0.047 2.251 7.693 0.058 0.827 7 721041 1828 1983 156 0.319 0.034 1.632 6.834 0.061 0.633 8 721042 1827 1983 157 0.320 0.030 1.448 7.158 0.062 0.514 9 721051 1878 1983 106 0.305 0.017 0.230 2.412 0.041 0.541 10 721052 1867 1983 117 0.306 0.039 2.356 8.361 0.052 0.822 11 721061 1877 1983 107 0.259 0.031 4.287 26.061 0.058 0.431 12 721062 1870 1983 114 0.271 0.029 2.340 9.732 0.058 0.563 13 721071 1770 1983 214 0.357 0.047 1.189 4.496 0.059 0.761 14 721072 1782 1983 202 0.312 0.023 1.155 5.982 0.063 0.335 15 721081 1778 1983 206 0.327 0.026 0.036 3.621 0.060 0.476 16 721082 1800 1983 184 0.391 0.053 0.371 2.350 0.059 0.836 17 721101 1855 1983 129 0.327 0.031 0.617 3.971 0.062 0.596 18 721102 1891 1983 93 0.293 0.032 1.649 5.660 0.063 0.629 19 721111 1862 1983 122 0.351 0.039 1.060 5.029 0.054 0.753 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 721112 1864 1970 107 0.355 0.047 1.402 4.438 0.058 0.781 21 721121 1785 1983 199 0.331 0.021 0.293 2.951 0.044 0.610 22 721122 1784 1983 200 0.331 0.021 0.790 3.914 0.044 0.557 23 721131 1828 1983 156 0.334 0.047 2.192 8.886 0.045 0.893 24 721161 1780 1973 194 0.261 0.030 0.819 4.253 0.049 0.783 25 721172 1806 1983 178 0.272 0.035 1.361 8.150 0.059 0.726 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 25 FROM 1770 TO 1983 214 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 150 0.319 0.033 1.328 6.424 0.055 0.635 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.033 0.010 0.908 4.657 0.007 0.146 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 154 0.319 0.031 1.246 5.029 0.058 0.610 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.032 0.014 0.859 3.721 0.008 0.220 MINIMUM VALUE 89 0.259 0.017 0.036 2.350 0.041 0.335 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 0.301 0.026 0.790 3.971 0.052 0.541 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 0.334 0.039 1.649 7.693 0.060 0.761 MAXIMUM VALUE 208 0.391 0.053 4.287 26.061 0.063 0.893 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.189 0.259 0.015 -0.039 2.322 -0.448 0.794 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.448 SERIES 721112 AND 721122 107 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.794 SERIES 721061 AND 721062 107 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.66 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 28. 91. 120. 253. 300. 253. RBAR 0.147 0.209 0.188 0.124 0.197 0.198 SDEV 0.182 0.266 0.262 0.320 0.244 0.235 SERR 0.034 0.028 0.024 0.020 0.014 0.015 EPS 0.677 0.816 0.832 0.775 0.860 0.859 NSS 12.1 16.7 21.4 24.5 25.0 24.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.325 0.030 3.316 15.534 0.038 0.778 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.288 -0.143 0.087 85 129 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.47 0.78 1.00 1.24 2.01 25.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 156. 75. 89. 114. 189. 214. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.774 0.675 0.587 0.470 0.359 0.314 0.268 0.203 0.182 0.150 PACF 0.774 0.188 0.044 -0.094 -0.090 0.083 0.044 -0.056 0.029 -0.019 95% C.L. 0.137 0.203 0.241 0.266 0.282 0.290 0.296 0.301 0.303 0.305 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.695 0.535 0.182 0.171 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 721011 1 0.04230941 0.02790980 0.00000000 0.29562107 2 721012 1 0.02961069 0.02066333 0.00000000 0.29301780 3 721021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013383 0.35729057 4 721022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025606 0.33395934 5 721031 1 0.07944185 0.04692861 0.00000000 0.28670621 6 721032 1 0.20996492 0.10422020 0.00000000 0.28740147 7 721041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016157 0.33197850 8 721042 1 0.07695382 0.06682527 0.00000000 0.31395468 9 721051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021528 0.31670621 10 721052 1 0.08353969 0.02407520 0.00000000 0.27877486 11 721061 1 0.42548171 0.70556706 0.00000000 0.25401840 12 721062 1 0.12608065 0.11021557 0.00000000 0.26173642 13 721071 1 0.15866686 0.00557176 0.00000000 0.26310366 14 721072 1 0.08003443 0.09967826 0.00000000 0.30834869 15 721081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004156 0.32293156 16 721082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00037268 0.42621428 17 721101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012528 0.31860101 18 721102 1 0.12518726 0.08202230 0.00000000 0.27705622 19 721111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045248 0.32307410 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 721112 1 0.15944225 0.10293347 0.00000000 0.34148979 21 721121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003624 0.32723448 22 721122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003625 0.33489296 23 721131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063860 0.38365591 24 721161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041659 0.30211207 25 721172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00048677 0.31360742 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 721011 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.067 0.579 3.354 0.049 0.504 2 721012 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.071 1.370 6.243 0.052 0.418 3 721021 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.105 1.241 4.161 0.061 0.662 4 721022 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.065 1.197 6.668 0.054 0.305 5 721031 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.076 1.276 7.749 0.056 0.365 6 721032 1895 1983 89 1.000 0.068 0.301 3.224 0.057 0.464 7 721041 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.103 1.365 5.619 0.060 0.612 8 721042 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.083 1.009 5.450 0.063 0.441 9 721051 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.050 0.139 2.879 0.040 0.450 10 721052 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.099 1.483 6.121 0.052 0.709 11 721061 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.075 2.240 10.814 0.056 0.361 12 721062 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.069 2.005 9.068 0.057 0.189 13 721071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.094 0.979 4.839 0.059 0.572 14 721072 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.064 0.880 5.789 0.063 0.128 15 721081 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.078 0.092 3.544 0.059 0.472 16 721082 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.125 -0.020 2.912 0.061 0.782 17 721101 1855 1983 129 1.000 0.094 0.908 4.803 0.062 0.580 18 721102 1891 1983 93 1.000 0.062 0.458 3.075 0.063 0.073 19 721111 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.102 0.713 4.575 0.054 0.687 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 721112 1864 1970 107 1.000 0.105 1.729 6.881 0.057 0.635 21 721121 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.064 0.182 2.895 0.043 0.603 22 721122 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.064 0.871 3.929 0.044 0.552 23 721131 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.104 2.507 11.706 0.045 0.804 24 721161 1780 1973 194 1.000 0.068 1.000 7.259 0.049 0.441 25 721172 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.087 2.395 14.281 0.060 0.459 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.082 1.076 5.913 0.055 0.491 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.019 0.712 2.963 0.007 0.187 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.076 1.000 5.450 0.057 0.472 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.000 0.032 0.791 3.337 0.009 0.194 MINIMUM VALUE 89 1.000 0.050 -0.020 2.879 0.040 0.073 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.067 0.579 3.544 0.052 0.418 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.000 0.099 1.370 6.881 0.060 0.612 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.125 2.507 14.281 0.063 0.804 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 721011 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 721012 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 721021 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 721022 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 721031 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 721032 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 721041 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 721042 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 721051 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 721052 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 721061 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 721062 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 721071 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 721072 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 721081 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 721082 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 721101 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 721102 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 721111 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 721112 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 721121 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 721122 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 721131 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 721161 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 721172 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 721011 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.063 0.457 3.396 0.049 0.456 2 721012 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.069 1.376 6.446 0.052 0.383 3 721021 1830 1983 154 0.999 0.090 1.235 4.537 0.061 0.562 4 721022 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.063 1.294 7.413 0.054 0.260 5 721031 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.072 1.478 8.633 0.056 0.300 6 721032 1895 1983 89 1.000 0.060 0.212 3.864 0.057 0.319 7 721041 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.069 1.616 7.795 0.061 0.208 8 721042 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.072 1.090 6.962 0.063 0.269 9 721051 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.042 0.244 2.713 0.041 0.225 10 721052 1867 1983 117 0.999 0.086 1.376 6.823 0.052 0.638 11 721061 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.069 2.050 9.983 0.056 0.253 12 721062 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.065 2.092 9.070 0.057 0.088 13 721071 1770 1983 214 0.999 0.086 0.962 5.341 0.059 0.491 14 721072 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.063 0.940 6.597 0.063 0.098 15 721081 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.062 0.416 3.739 0.060 0.180 16 721082 1800 1983 184 0.998 0.093 0.017 2.929 0.061 0.628 17 721101 1855 1983 129 0.999 0.069 0.393 2.695 0.062 0.301 18 721102 1891 1983 93 1.000 0.061 0.474 3.102 0.063 0.037 19 721111 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.063 0.874 4.809 0.054 0.330 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 721112 1864 1970 107 1.000 0.068 0.804 4.019 0.058 0.312 21 721121 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.056 0.116 3.127 0.043 0.489 22 721122 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.056 0.797 4.203 0.044 0.413 23 721131 1828 1983 156 0.999 0.091 2.197 10.906 0.045 0.758 24 721161 1780 1973 194 1.000 0.064 1.241 9.059 0.049 0.367 25 721172 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.081 2.481 15.028 0.060 0.386 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.069 1.049 6.128 0.055 0.350 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.012 0.686 3.092 0.007 0.177 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.068 0.962 5.341 0.057 0.319 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.000 0.010 0.918 4.056 0.009 0.204 MINIMUM VALUE 89 0.998 0.042 0.017 2.695 0.041 0.037 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.063 0.457 3.739 0.052 0.253 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.000 0.072 1.376 7.795 0.061 0.456 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.093 2.481 15.028 0.063 0.758 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.186 0.152 0.009 -0.151 3.007 -0.334 0.612 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.334 SERIES 721052 AND 721131 117 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.612 SERIES 721041 AND 721042 156 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.66 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 28. 91. 120. 253. 300. 253. RBAR 0.154 0.235 0.181 0.172 0.184 0.223 SDEV 0.189 0.237 0.214 0.231 0.216 0.202 SERR 0.036 0.025 0.020 0.015 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.689 0.837 0.825 0.836 0.849 0.876 NSS 12.1 16.7 21.4 24.5 25.0 24.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.999 0.040 1.309 7.453 0.038 0.184 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.269 0.158 -0.101 79 135 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.92 1.01 1.10 2.02 34.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.183 -0.014 0.042 -0.023 -0.083 0.035 0.103 0.031 -0.010 -0.021 PACF 0.183 -0.050 0.056 -0.044 -0.070 0.062 0.085 0.006 -0.020 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.137 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.142 0.142 0.143 0.144 0.144 0.144 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.036 0.184 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.123 -0.037 0.054 0.081 -0.059 0.005 0.119 -0.006 -0.035 -0.019 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.123 2 0.129 -0.053 3 0.133 -0.061 0.066 4 0.129 -0.057 0.058 0.065 5 0.133 -0.053 0.053 0.074 -0.074 6 0.135 -0.055 0.052 0.076 -0.078 0.027 7 0.133 -0.047 0.044 0.070 -0.072 0.013 0.104 8 0.136 -0.046 0.042 0.073 -0.071 0.011 0.109 -0.034 9 0.136 -0.045 0.042 0.072 -0.070 0.012 0.108 -0.033 -0.012 10 0.135 -0.046 0.045 0.072 -0.072 0.014 0.109 -0.034 -0.007 -0.032 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 941.05 939.79 941.20 942.26 943.36 944.17 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 946.02 945.69 947.44 949.41 951.19 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.123 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.51 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.54 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.123 0.015 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 721011 1 0.240 0.463 2 721012 1 0.150 0.387 3 721021 1 0.325 0.567 4 721022 1 0.072 0.261 5 721031 1 0.116 0.300 6 721032 1 0.103 0.321 7 721041 1 0.060 0.209 8 721042 1 0.088 0.270 9 721051 1 0.069 0.228 10 721052 1 0.416 0.641 11 721061 1 0.065 0.253 12 721062 1 0.014 0.088 13 721071 1 0.274 0.493 14 721072 1 0.014 0.098 15 721081 1 0.041 0.181 16 721082 1 0.414 0.630 17 721101 1 0.116 0.309 18 721102 1 0.023 0.038 19 721111 1 0.117 0.337 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 721112 1 0.119 0.327 21 721121 1 0.267 0.497 22 721122 1 0.186 0.416 23 721131 1 0.582 0.762 24 721161 1 0.159 0.368 25 721172 1 0.150 0.386 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.167 0.353 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.143 0.178 MEDIAN 1 0.117 0.327 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.171 0.211 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.014 0.038 LOWER HINGE 1 0.069 0.253 UPPER HINGE 1 0.240 0.463 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.582 0.762 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 721011 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.056 0.666 4.321 0.065 -0.083 2 721012 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.063 1.497 8.072 0.065 -0.013 3 721021 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.074 1.321 5.764 0.081 -0.039 4 721022 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.061 1.455 9.012 0.062 -0.017 5 721031 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.068 1.699 9.947 0.068 -0.050 6 721032 1895 1983 89 1.000 0.057 0.313 3.186 0.067 0.005 7 721041 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.067 1.698 8.227 0.067 -0.028 8 721042 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.069 1.325 8.460 0.073 -0.035 9 721051 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.041 0.311 2.628 0.045 0.028 10 721052 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.066 0.304 4.700 0.073 -0.065 11 721061 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.066 2.137 12.113 0.064 -0.009 12 721062 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.065 2.173 9.540 0.060 -0.007 13 721071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.074 1.014 7.540 0.077 -0.099 14 721072 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.062 1.045 7.152 0.066 0.007 15 721081 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.061 0.377 3.696 0.066 -0.017 16 721082 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.072 -0.078 4.335 0.084 -0.106 17 721101 1855 1983 129 1.000 0.065 0.548 3.003 0.072 -0.053 18 721102 1891 1983 93 1.000 0.061 0.471 3.143 0.065 -0.006 19 721111 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.059 1.045 5.623 0.066 -0.027 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 721112 1864 1970 107 1.000 0.064 1.051 5.178 0.069 -0.031 21 721121 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.049 0.487 3.556 0.054 -0.071 22 721122 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.051 0.853 5.346 0.055 -0.047 23 721131 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.059 0.952 6.991 0.059 0.046 24 721161 1780 1973 194 1.000 0.060 0.970 10.352 0.061 -0.060 25 721172 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.075 2.659 17.329 0.073 -0.009 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.063 1.052 6.769 0.066 -0.031 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.008 0.673 3.436 0.008 0.037 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.063 1.014 5.764 0.066 -0.028 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.000 0.008 0.968 4.139 0.011 0.044 MINIMUM VALUE 89 1.000 0.041 -0.078 2.628 0.045 -0.106 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.059 0.487 4.321 0.062 -0.053 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.000 0.067 1.455 8.460 0.072 -0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.075 2.659 17.329 0.084 0.046 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.235 0.138 0.008 -0.270 3.375 -0.166 0.657 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.166 SERIES 721012 AND 721161 179 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.657 SERIES 721041 AND 721042 156 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.66 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 28. 91. 120. 253. 300. 253. RBAR 0.208 0.287 0.205 0.210 0.229 0.291 SDEV 0.187 0.207 0.211 0.183 0.188 0.149 SERR 0.035 0.022 0.019 0.012 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.761 0.871 0.847 0.867 0.882 0.910 NSS 12.1 16.7 21.4 24.5 25.0 24.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.999 0.037 1.335 7.821 0.042 -0.153 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.353 0.210 -0.161 74 140 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 1.13 1.00 1.09 2.22 10.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.152 -0.090 0.068 -0.005 -0.109 0.038 0.097 -0.017 -0.019 0.016 PACF -0.152 -0.116 0.036 0.002 -0.103 0.001 0.088 0.029 -0.004 -0.006 95% C.L. 0.137 0.140 0.141 0.142 0.142 0.143 0.143 0.145 0.145 0.145 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.038 -0.171 -0.117 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.017 -0.108 0.055 -0.012 -0.109 0.037 0.105 -0.006 -0.019 0.009 PACF -0.017 -0.108 0.052 -0.022 -0.099 0.029 0.088 0.013 -0.007 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.137 0.137 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.140 0.141 0.142 0.142 0.142 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.012 -0.018 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.999 0.037 1.359 8.096 0.037 0.094 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.093 -0.089 0.040 -0.020 -0.104 0.036 0.107 0.003 -0.017 0.001 PACF 0.093 -0.099 0.060 -0.040 -0.090 0.051 0.085 0.000 -0.009 -0.013 95% C.L. 0.137 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.141 0.141 0.142 0.142 0.142 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES