RUN: CANA004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me3 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA088I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA088I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 721 1 Summit Lake Pass DENSITY_EARLY PCGL - 721 2 Canada White Spruce 1260 5840-12440 1770 1983 - 721 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 16 721082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1850 1850 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 721011 1841 1983 143 3.594 0.222 0.605 4.138 0.044 0.596 2 721012 1795 1983 189 3.521 0.232 1.101 4.655 0.048 0.493 3 721021 1830 1983 154 4.154 0.398 0.948 3.430 0.062 0.629 4 721022 1819 1983 165 3.985 0.238 0.545 3.601 0.045 0.475 5 721031 1870 1983 114 3.544 0.273 1.716 8.332 0.047 0.581 6 721032 1895 1983 89 3.623 0.507 2.399 7.870 0.045 0.880 7 721041 1828 1983 156 3.598 0.329 1.722 6.456 0.047 0.734 8 721042 1827 1983 157 3.675 0.284 1.616 7.255 0.050 0.564 9 721051 1878 1983 106 3.600 0.184 0.098 2.289 0.046 0.378 10 721052 1867 1983 117 3.591 0.475 2.419 8.114 0.050 0.822 11 721061 1877 1983 107 3.150 0.335 4.424 26.194 0.051 0.493 12 721062 1870 1983 114 3.247 0.302 2.358 10.782 0.057 0.553 13 721071 1770 1983 214 4.027 0.454 1.121 3.983 0.048 0.808 14 721072 1782 1983 202 3.644 0.229 1.776 9.471 0.048 0.423 15 721081 1778 1983 206 3.712 0.261 -0.028 3.269 0.049 0.601 16 721082 1800 1983 184 4.437 0.584 0.250 2.101 0.051 0.870 17 721101 1855 1983 129 3.831 0.295 0.216 3.539 0.048 0.638 18 721102 1891 1983 93 3.394 0.347 1.941 6.673 0.050 0.725 19 721111 1862 1983 122 3.983 0.335 1.005 4.575 0.045 0.738 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 721112 1864 1970 107 4.034 0.461 1.673 6.202 0.045 0.761 21 721121 1785 1983 199 3.748 0.206 0.095 2.463 0.039 0.546 22 721122 1784 1983 200 3.762 0.210 0.485 3.448 0.038 0.609 23 721131 1828 1983 156 3.782 0.433 2.315 9.213 0.038 0.900 24 721161 1780 1973 194 3.099 0.292 0.685 3.970 0.048 0.761 25 721172 1806 1983 178 3.185 0.345 0.988 5.716 0.054 0.761 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 25 FROM 1770 TO 1983 214 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 3.677 0.329 1.299 6.310 0.048 0.654 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.322 0.106 1.021 4.812 0.005 0.147 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 3.644 0.302 1.101 4.655 0.048 0.629 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.287 0.161 1.230 4.331 0.005 0.208 MINIMUM VALUE 89 3.099 0.184 -0.028 2.101 0.038 0.378 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 3.544 0.238 0.545 3.539 0.045 0.553 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 3.831 0.398 1.776 7.870 0.050 0.761 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 4.437 0.584 4.424 26.194 0.062 0.900 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.197 0.253 0.015 -0.109 2.671 -0.596 0.874 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.596 SERIES 721032 AND 721101 89 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.874 SERIES 721061 AND 721062 107 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.66 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 28. 91. 120. 253. 300. 253. RBAR 0.116 0.184 0.199 0.166 0.202 0.213 SDEV 0.199 0.286 0.258 0.297 0.259 0.211 SERR 0.038 0.030 0.024 0.019 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.613 0.790 0.842 0.829 0.863 0.870 NSS 12.1 16.7 21.4 24.5 25.0 24.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 3.731 0.293 3.118 14.730 0.033 0.790 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.218 -0.112 0.805 110 104 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.53 1.05 1.00 1.12 2.16 7.49 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 156. 75. 89. 114. 189. 214. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.786 0.677 0.548 0.441 0.325 0.286 0.267 0.214 0.198 0.167 PACF 0.786 0.154 -0.063 -0.032 -0.081 0.117 0.096 -0.089 0.032 -0.027 95% C.L. 0.137 0.204 0.243 0.265 0.278 0.285 0.291 0.295 0.298 0.300 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.689 0.631 0.230 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 721011 1 0.27152240 0.02916007 0.00000000 3.53059959 2 721012 1 0.18153177 0.02316017 0.00000000 3.48100495 3 721021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047880 4.11652899 4 721022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00198312 3.82018924 5 721031 1 0.63240498 0.03509143 0.00000000 3.39181495 6 721032 1 2.30876994 0.10066952 0.00000000 3.37824607 7 721041 1 0.99984002 0.04096439 0.00000000 3.44448495 8 721042 1 0.75329310 0.03684894 0.00000000 3.54734564 9 721051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00155427 3.68353105 10 721052 1 1.06762516 0.01798552 0.00000000 3.14911866 11 721061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00385813 3.35805845 12 721062 1 1.00899279 0.06644168 0.00000000 3.11798525 13 721071 1 1.45661902 0.00635812 0.00000000 3.23393178 14 721072 1 0.86332232 0.09336764 0.00000000 3.60033941 15 721081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023407 3.73636174 16 721082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00445597 4.85510778 17 721101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00166419 3.72314572 18 721102 1 1.40190017 0.07796290 0.00000000 3.20809364 19 721111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00424197 3.72198749 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 721112 1 1.31824219 0.10144707 0.00000000 3.91854167 21 721121 1 0.16018875 0.02432169 0.00000000 3.71535277 22 721122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039767 3.80231547 23 721131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00551289 4.21455669 24 721161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00369979 3.45944118 25 721172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00474929 3.60989332 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 721011 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.059 0.443 3.175 0.044 0.555 2 721012 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.064 0.998 4.415 0.048 0.469 3 721021 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.096 0.940 3.437 0.062 0.625 4 721022 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.055 1.167 5.266 0.045 0.377 5 721031 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.062 1.596 7.744 0.046 0.387 6 721032 1895 1983 89 1.000 0.053 0.534 4.034 0.044 0.454 7 721041 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.063 0.953 4.941 0.046 0.514 8 721042 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.059 0.927 5.035 0.050 0.345 9 721051 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.049 0.140 2.664 0.045 0.334 10 721052 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.102 1.409 6.180 0.050 0.707 11 721061 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.096 3.759 21.527 0.050 0.458 12 721062 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.063 2.015 9.180 0.056 0.197 13 721071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.080 0.941 4.268 0.048 0.642 14 721072 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.052 1.114 6.620 0.048 0.185 15 721081 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.070 -0.047 3.322 0.049 0.595 16 721082 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.119 -0.063 2.623 0.052 0.823 17 721101 1855 1983 129 1.000 0.076 0.653 4.585 0.048 0.610 18 721102 1891 1983 93 1.000 0.048 0.411 3.651 0.049 0.135 19 721111 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.075 0.564 3.847 0.044 0.661 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 721112 1864 1970 107 1.000 0.098 2.619 12.616 0.044 0.653 21 721121 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.054 0.201 2.671 0.039 0.522 22 721122 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.056 0.598 3.511 0.038 0.604 23 721131 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.089 2.477 11.106 0.037 0.834 24 721161 1780 1973 194 1.000 0.065 1.201 6.175 0.048 0.508 25 721172 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.074 1.783 9.026 0.053 0.514 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.071 1.093 6.065 0.047 0.508 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.019 0.899 4.180 0.005 0.181 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.064 0.941 4.585 0.048 0.514 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.000 0.025 0.875 3.109 0.005 0.238 MINIMUM VALUE 89 1.000 0.048 -0.063 2.623 0.037 0.135 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.056 0.534 3.511 0.044 0.387 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.000 0.080 1.409 6.620 0.050 0.625 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.119 3.759 21.527 0.062 0.834 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 721011 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 721012 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 721021 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 721022 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 721031 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 721032 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 721041 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 721042 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 721051 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 721052 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 721061 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 721062 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 721071 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 721072 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 721081 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 721082 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 721101 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 721102 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 721111 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 721112 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 721121 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 721122 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 721131 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 721161 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 721172 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 721011 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.056 0.491 3.309 0.044 0.510 2 721012 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.062 0.995 4.591 0.048 0.429 3 721021 1830 1983 154 0.999 0.084 0.999 3.721 0.062 0.522 4 721022 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.053 1.243 6.002 0.045 0.326 5 721031 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.059 1.717 8.086 0.046 0.336 6 721032 1895 1983 89 1.000 0.048 0.363 5.253 0.043 0.325 7 721041 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.055 0.850 5.633 0.046 0.376 8 721042 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.057 0.985 5.328 0.050 0.303 9 721051 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.046 0.307 2.725 0.046 0.223 10 721052 1867 1983 117 0.999 0.089 1.349 6.856 0.050 0.634 11 721061 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.086 3.183 16.535 0.050 0.437 12 721062 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.061 2.074 9.735 0.056 0.154 13 721071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.073 0.870 4.548 0.048 0.574 14 721072 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.051 1.146 7.272 0.048 0.171 15 721081 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.056 0.300 3.480 0.049 0.370 16 721082 1800 1983 184 0.999 0.090 0.053 2.821 0.052 0.712 17 721101 1855 1983 129 1.000 0.057 0.257 2.783 0.048 0.389 18 721102 1891 1983 93 1.000 0.048 0.426 3.687 0.049 0.119 19 721111 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.053 0.521 3.295 0.044 0.407 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 721112 1864 1970 107 1.000 0.061 1.285 5.904 0.044 0.411 21 721121 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.049 0.213 2.998 0.039 0.410 22 721122 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.048 0.461 3.694 0.038 0.472 23 721131 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.079 2.086 10.323 0.037 0.795 24 721161 1780 1973 194 1.000 0.060 1.311 6.868 0.048 0.429 25 721172 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.068 1.873 9.810 0.053 0.429 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.062 1.014 5.810 0.047 0.411 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.014 0.746 3.207 0.005 0.161 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.057 0.985 5.253 0.048 0.410 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.000 0.015 0.885 3.389 0.006 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 89 0.999 0.046 0.053 2.725 0.037 0.119 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.053 0.426 3.480 0.044 0.326 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.000 0.068 1.311 6.868 0.050 0.472 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.090 3.183 16.535 0.062 0.795 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.199 0.170 0.010 -0.116 3.594 -0.423 0.811 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.423 SERIES 721052 AND 721131 117 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.811 SERIES 721061 AND 721062 107 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.66 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 28. 91. 120. 253. 300. 253. RBAR 0.129 0.206 0.207 0.233 0.180 0.234 SDEV 0.206 0.256 0.233 0.251 0.214 0.192 SERR 0.039 0.027 0.021 0.016 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.643 0.812 0.848 0.882 0.846 0.883 NSS 12.1 16.7 21.4 24.5 25.0 24.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.998 0.035 0.939 4.984 0.032 0.266 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.200 0.131 -0.080 82 132 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 1.00 1.00 1.13 2.13 13.68 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.265 0.092 -0.003 -0.040 -0.140 -0.036 0.071 0.101 0.071 -0.030 PACF 0.265 0.023 -0.035 -0.036 -0.127 0.038 0.094 0.060 0.015 -0.088 95% C.L. 0.137 0.146 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.150 0.150 0.151 0.152 0.152 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.071 0.266 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.176 0.090 -0.001 0.051 -0.140 -0.063 0.083 0.006 0.018 -0.035 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.176 2 0.165 0.061 3 0.166 0.066 -0.028 4 0.168 0.063 -0.037 0.052 5 0.176 0.057 -0.027 0.079 -0.160 6 0.173 0.058 -0.027 0.081 -0.157 -0.022 7 0.176 0.079 -0.038 0.084 -0.164 -0.044 0.130 8 0.180 0.077 -0.043 0.087 -0.166 -0.041 0.136 -0.035 9 0.181 0.074 -0.042 0.091 -0.168 -0.040 0.134 -0.039 0.025 10 0.182 0.072 -0.035 0.089 -0.177 -0.035 0.132 -0.035 0.035 -0.056 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 899.51 894.81 896.00 897.84 899.25 895.67 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 897.57 895.94 897.68 899.55 900.88 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.176 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.08 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.18 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.176 0.031 0.005 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 721011 1 0.273 0.512 2 721012 1 0.191 0.432 3 721021 1 0.281 0.526 4 721022 1 0.113 0.329 5 721031 1 0.127 0.337 6 721032 1 0.112 0.333 7 721041 1 0.160 0.377 8 721042 1 0.106 0.306 9 721051 1 0.055 0.226 10 721052 1 0.423 0.641 11 721061 1 0.273 0.520 12 721062 1 0.033 0.155 13 721071 1 0.348 0.578 14 721072 1 0.030 0.171 15 721081 1 0.150 0.372 16 721082 1 0.512 0.713 17 721101 1 0.186 0.400 18 721102 1 0.025 0.119 19 721111 1 0.174 0.412 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 721112 1 0.211 0.457 21 721121 1 0.199 0.417 22 721122 1 0.243 0.474 23 721131 1 0.636 0.797 24 721161 1 0.188 0.430 25 721172 1 0.184 0.429 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.209 0.418 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.147 0.163 MEDIAN 1 0.186 0.417 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.160 0.179 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.025 0.119 LOWER HINGE 1 0.113 0.333 UPPER HINGE 1 0.273 0.512 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.636 0.797 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 721011 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.048 0.631 3.783 0.057 -0.061 2 721012 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.056 1.212 5.965 0.058 -0.030 3 721021 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.072 0.922 4.463 0.077 -0.038 4 721022 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.050 1.249 6.726 0.053 -0.025 5 721031 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.056 2.133 10.271 0.056 -0.042 6 721032 1895 1983 89 1.000 0.045 0.261 3.648 0.051 -0.014 7 721041 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.051 1.179 6.196 0.056 -0.055 8 721042 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.054 1.385 6.892 0.058 -0.038 9 721051 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.045 0.421 2.792 0.050 0.010 10 721052 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.068 0.637 5.314 0.070 -0.097 11 721061 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.070 3.099 16.770 0.064 -0.063 12 721062 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.061 2.287 11.244 0.060 -0.016 13 721071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.059 0.811 5.623 0.065 -0.083 14 721072 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.051 1.235 7.945 0.053 0.002 15 721081 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.052 0.278 3.535 0.057 -0.042 16 721082 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.063 -0.258 4.322 0.072 -0.058 17 721101 1855 1983 129 1.000 0.052 0.538 3.356 0.059 -0.079 18 721102 1891 1983 93 1.000 0.047 0.418 3.851 0.052 -0.013 19 721111 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.048 0.753 4.604 0.056 -0.033 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 721112 1864 1970 107 1.000 0.054 1.418 6.855 0.054 0.009 21 721121 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.044 0.510 4.267 0.047 -0.065 22 721122 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.042 0.400 4.484 0.047 -0.074 23 721131 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.048 1.114 6.431 0.050 0.027 24 721161 1780 1973 194 1.000 0.054 1.184 7.432 0.058 -0.022 25 721172 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.061 1.780 10.336 0.063 0.006 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.054 1.024 6.284 0.058 -0.036 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.008 0.736 3.150 0.007 0.033 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.052 0.922 5.623 0.057 -0.038 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.000 0.011 0.740 2.625 0.008 0.047 MINIMUM VALUE 89 1.000 0.042 -0.258 2.792 0.047 -0.097 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.048 0.510 4.267 0.053 -0.061 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.000 0.059 1.249 6.892 0.060 -0.014 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.072 3.099 16.770 0.077 0.027 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.262 0.152 0.009 -0.267 3.829 -0.181 0.797 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.181 SERIES 721051 AND 721161 96 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.797 SERIES 721061 AND 721062 107 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.66 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 28. 91. 120. 253. 300. 253. RBAR 0.197 0.258 0.251 0.290 0.223 0.337 SDEV 0.194 0.225 0.225 0.197 0.176 0.145 SERR 0.037 0.024 0.021 0.012 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.748 0.853 0.878 0.909 0.878 0.926 NSS 12.1 16.7 21.4 24.5 25.0 24.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.998 0.031 0.959 5.303 0.037 -0.149 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.384 0.237 -0.196 78 136 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 1.18 1.00 1.14 2.32 10.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.148 -0.019 -0.033 0.031 -0.157 -0.020 0.078 0.044 0.030 -0.041 PACF -0.148 -0.042 -0.043 0.019 -0.156 -0.070 0.057 0.053 0.054 -0.046 95% C.L. 0.137 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.143 0.143 0.144 0.144 0.144 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.024 -0.148 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.006 -0.048 -0.033 0.004 -0.162 -0.033 0.085 0.062 0.032 -0.033 PACF -0.006 -0.048 -0.033 0.001 -0.166 -0.038 0.070 0.050 0.040 -0.049 95% C.L. 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.141 0.141 0.142 0.142 0.142 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.002 -0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.998 0.031 0.992 5.428 0.031 0.161 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.160 -0.025 -0.041 -0.032 -0.166 -0.045 0.086 0.080 0.040 -0.025 PACF 0.160 -0.052 -0.029 -0.022 -0.165 0.006 0.084 0.041 0.022 -0.055 95% C.L. 0.137 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.141 0.144 0.145 0.145 0.146 0.146 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.028 0.161 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES