RUN: CANA004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me3 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA087T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA087T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 703 1 Watson-Lake DENSITY_LATE PCGL - 703 2 Canada White Spruce 750 6095-12850 1742 1983 - 703 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 703032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1897 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 703142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1864 1864 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 703031 1832 1983 152 6.494 0.767 -0.707 3.561 0.057 0.819 2 703032 1843 1983 141 6.405 0.663 -0.095 2.859 0.072 0.576 3 703041 1840 1983 144 7.599 0.513 1.128 4.290 0.048 0.552 4 703042 1851 1983 133 7.725 0.545 -0.129 2.233 0.054 0.513 5 703051 1877 1983 107 6.481 0.590 -0.333 2.558 0.070 0.565 6 703052 1837 1983 147 6.540 0.605 -0.052 2.638 0.061 0.662 7 703061 1834 1983 150 6.979 0.581 -0.835 5.660 0.063 0.426 8 703062 1817 1983 167 6.763 0.578 -0.632 3.575 0.050 0.695 9 703071 1763 1983 221 7.194 0.605 -1.024 4.807 0.054 0.656 10 703072 1795 1983 189 7.149 0.661 -1.108 3.958 0.058 0.686 11 703081 1823 1983 161 6.674 0.536 -0.248 3.245 0.062 0.522 12 703082 1742 1983 242 6.679 0.484 -0.314 3.382 0.066 0.334 13 703091 1827 1983 157 7.301 0.409 0.347 3.280 0.053 0.318 14 703092 1829 1983 155 7.067 0.457 -0.199 3.421 0.061 0.282 15 703101 1835 1983 149 6.554 0.625 -0.553 3.619 0.072 0.510 16 703102 1834 1983 150 6.224 0.843 -0.642 3.123 0.072 0.774 17 703121 1848 1983 136 7.015 0.532 -0.020 2.704 0.064 0.432 18 703122 1830 1983 154 6.956 0.706 -0.898 4.496 0.059 0.716 19 703131 1833 1983 151 6.698 0.598 -0.134 2.237 0.079 0.386 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 703132 1875 1983 109 6.150 0.683 0.053 2.730 0.092 0.473 21 703141 1833 1983 151 6.466 0.489 -0.581 4.061 0.054 0.535 22 703142 1841 1983 143 6.662 0.480 0.140 2.933 0.064 0.391 23 703151 1844 1983 140 5.823 0.515 0.077 2.749 0.075 0.417 24 703152 1878 1983 106 6.069 0.608 0.292 2.914 0.087 0.410 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1742 TO 1983 242 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 6.736 0.586 -0.269 3.376 0.064 0.527 STANDARD DEVIATION 30 0.466 0.101 0.505 0.838 0.011 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 150 6.677 0.585 -0.224 3.263 0.063 0.518 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.567 0.129 0.654 1.049 0.016 0.245 MINIMUM VALUE 106 5.823 0.409 -1.108 2.233 0.048 0.282 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 140 6.474 0.514 -0.637 2.739 0.056 0.414 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 156 7.041 0.643 0.017 3.789 0.072 0.659 MAXIMUM VALUE 242 7.725 0.843 1.128 5.660 0.092 0.819 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.244 0.210 0.013 -0.155 2.696 -0.367 0.743 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.367 SERIES 703041 AND 703072 144 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.743 SERIES 703101 AND 703122 149 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.53 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 1. 3. 10. 190. 231. 276. 276. RBAR 0.130 0.210 0.253 0.338 0.334 0.248 0.193 SDEV 0.000 0.242 0.252 0.204 0.213 0.278 0.232 SERR 0.000 0.140 0.080 0.015 0.014 0.017 0.014 EPS 0.295 0.690 0.853 0.920 0.923 0.888 0.851 NSS 2.8 8.4 17.2 22.4 23.9 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1742 1983 242 6.734 0.400 -0.288 3.629 0.050 0.430 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.013 0.010 0.546 49 193 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.34 1.00 1.05 1.39 3.33 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 150. 16. 106. 140. 156. 242. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.428 0.431 0.331 0.258 0.146 0.153 0.214 0.120 0.093 0.130 PACF 0.428 0.303 0.098 0.013 -0.080 0.032 0.164 -0.027 -0.064 0.048 95% C.L. 0.129 0.150 0.169 0.180 0.186 0.188 0.190 0.194 0.195 0.196 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.270 0.265 0.275 0.108 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 703031 1 1.26747537 0.01020178 0.00000000 5.85365438 2 703032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00777935 5.85368204 3 703041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00383084 7.32170868 4 703042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00534717 7.36640120 5 703051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00689914 6.10838127 6 703052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00957412 5.83199120 7 703061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00417188 6.66422272 8 703062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00640404 6.22493458 9 703071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00285395 6.87701273 10 703072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00219464 6.94034576 11 703081 1 0.87946182 0.03876702 0.00000000 6.53630400 12 703082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028593 6.71358347 13 703091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00192038 7.14911795 14 703092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00158332 6.94353342 15 703101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00954203 5.83844185 16 703102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01291672 5.24885464 17 703121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00723167 6.51948357 18 703122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00957255 6.21416616 19 703131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00560223 6.27191257 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 703132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00259086 6.29222202 21 703141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00374144 6.18187523 22 703142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00751390 6.12334061 23 703151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00236809 5.99016428 24 703152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00586976 5.75464678 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 703031 1832 1983 152 1.000 0.113 -0.228 4.018 0.056 0.785 2 703032 1843 1983 141 1.000 0.091 -0.215 3.340 0.070 0.472 3 703041 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.064 0.997 4.389 0.048 0.507 4 703042 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.065 -0.256 2.231 0.054 0.432 5 703051 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.085 -0.205 2.902 0.070 0.496 6 703052 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.068 -0.349 3.206 0.061 0.363 7 703061 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.079 -0.922 7.027 0.062 0.370 8 703062 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.073 -0.291 3.042 0.050 0.606 9 703071 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.082 -0.465 4.212 0.053 0.636 10 703072 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.091 -1.078 4.337 0.058 0.676 11 703081 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.075 -0.184 3.583 0.062 0.449 12 703082 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.072 -0.332 3.338 0.065 0.332 13 703091 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.055 0.221 2.898 0.053 0.286 14 703092 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.064 -0.362 3.787 0.060 0.261 15 703101 1835 1983 149 1.000 0.073 -0.634 3.118 0.071 0.187 16 703102 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.102 -0.272 2.961 0.072 0.619 17 703121 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.064 0.046 3.149 0.063 0.223 18 703122 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.082 -0.580 3.614 0.059 0.584 19 703131 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.081 -0.157 2.748 0.079 0.268 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 703132 1875 1983 109 1.000 0.110 0.108 2.864 0.091 0.466 21 703141 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.071 -0.737 4.661 0.054 0.489 22 703142 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.054 -0.236 3.252 0.064 -0.057 23 703151 1844 1983 140 1.000 0.087 0.342 3.019 0.074 0.398 24 703152 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.095 0.096 2.568 0.086 0.354 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.079 -0.237 3.511 0.064 0.425 STANDARD DEVIATION 30 0.000 0.016 0.426 0.967 0.011 0.184 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.077 -0.246 3.229 0.062 0.440 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 15 0.000 0.022 0.358 0.971 0.016 0.236 MINIMUM VALUE 106 1.000 0.054 -1.078 2.231 0.048 -0.057 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 140 1.000 0.067 -0.414 2.931 0.055 0.309 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.089 -0.055 3.903 0.071 0.545 MAXIMUM VALUE 242 1.000 0.113 0.997 7.027 0.091 0.785 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 703031 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 703032 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 703041 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 703042 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 703051 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 703052 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 703061 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 703062 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 703071 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 703072 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 703081 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 703082 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 703091 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 703092 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 703101 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 703102 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 703121 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 703122 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 703131 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 703132 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 703141 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 703142 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 703151 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 703152 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 703031 1832 1983 152 0.999 0.094 0.136 5.984 0.056 0.697 2 703032 1843 1983 141 0.999 0.080 -0.319 4.078 0.071 0.329 3 703041 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.061 0.916 4.260 0.048 0.457 4 703042 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.057 -0.035 2.468 0.053 0.280 5 703051 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.075 -0.428 3.310 0.070 0.347 6 703052 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.066 -0.245 3.186 0.061 0.323 7 703061 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.073 -1.143 8.437 0.062 0.244 8 703062 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.058 -0.215 3.126 0.050 0.395 9 703071 1763 1983 221 0.999 0.060 -0.289 3.660 0.053 0.345 10 703072 1795 1983 189 0.999 0.074 -1.342 5.418 0.057 0.528 11 703081 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.062 -0.162 3.770 0.062 0.192 12 703082 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.071 -0.352 3.354 0.065 0.304 13 703091 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.050 0.028 2.932 0.053 0.158 14 703092 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.059 -0.540 4.532 0.060 0.160 15 703101 1835 1983 149 1.000 0.069 -0.445 2.605 0.071 0.114 16 703102 1834 1983 150 0.999 0.076 0.054 2.758 0.072 0.337 17 703121 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.057 0.040 3.052 0.063 0.034 18 703122 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.067 -0.207 2.733 0.059 0.374 19 703131 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.075 -0.362 3.071 0.079 0.150 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 703132 1875 1983 109 0.999 0.093 -0.102 2.822 0.091 0.227 21 703141 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.063 -0.660 5.701 0.054 0.368 22 703142 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.054 -0.244 3.113 0.064 -0.083 23 703151 1844 1983 140 1.000 0.083 0.376 3.009 0.074 0.314 24 703152 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.087 0.216 2.939 0.086 0.226 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.069 -0.222 3.763 0.064 0.284 STANDARD DEVIATION 30 0.000 0.012 0.455 1.393 0.011 0.161 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.068 -0.229 3.156 0.062 0.309 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 15 0.000 0.016 0.429 1.233 0.016 0.182 MINIMUM VALUE 106 0.999 0.050 -1.342 2.468 0.048 -0.083 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 140 1.000 0.060 -0.395 2.936 0.055 0.176 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.076 0.034 4.169 0.071 0.357 MAXIMUM VALUE 242 1.000 0.094 0.916 8.437 0.091 0.697 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.266 0.155 0.009 -0.119 3.219 -0.269 0.754 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.269 SERIES 703041 AND 703072 144 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.754 SERIES 703131 AND 703132 109 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.53 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 1. 3. 10. 190. 231. 276. 276. RBAR 0.200 0.343 0.326 0.346 0.377 0.263 0.195 SDEV 0.000 0.144 0.167 0.168 0.180 0.258 0.220 SERR 0.000 0.083 0.053 0.012 0.012 0.016 0.013 EPS 0.412 0.814 0.893 0.922 0.935 0.896 0.853 NSS 2.8 8.4 17.2 22.4 23.9 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.047 -0.175 2.623 0.049 0.142 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.008 -0.006 0.056 47 195 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.30 1.01 1.07 1.37 40.08 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.142 0.225 0.077 0.002 -0.064 -0.028 -0.014 -0.024 -0.036 0.077 PACF 0.142 0.209 0.024 -0.060 -0.085 -0.002 0.028 -0.010 -0.040 0.091 95% C.L. 0.129 0.131 0.137 0.138 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.139 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.064 0.112 0.210 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.025 0.145 0.010 -0.072 -0.057 -0.083 0.004 0.033 -0.066 0.178 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.025 2 -0.022 0.144 3 -0.024 0.144 0.017 4 -0.022 0.158 0.015 -0.094 5 -0.029 0.159 0.025 -0.096 -0.067 6 -0.033 0.153 0.027 -0.086 -0.069 -0.064 7 -0.032 0.154 0.029 -0.086 -0.072 -0.063 0.022 8 -0.033 0.158 0.033 -0.082 -0.073 -0.071 0.023 0.054 9 -0.029 0.160 0.027 -0.087 -0.080 -0.069 0.036 0.051 -0.078 10 -0.017 0.152 0.022 -0.077 -0.068 -0.056 0.031 0.027 -0.073 0.152 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1138.99 1140.83 1137.76 1139.69 1139.53 1140.44 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1141.46 1143.34 1144.64 1145.18 1141.54 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.022 0.144 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.14 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.18 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.022 0.145 -0.006 0.021 -0.001 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 703031 2 0.529 0.505 0.276 2 703032 2 0.135 0.282 0.150 3 703041 2 0.346 0.288 0.378 4 703042 2 0.135 0.224 0.229 5 703051 2 0.187 0.252 0.274 6 703052 2 0.170 0.245 0.242 7 703061 2 0.094 0.203 0.175 8 703062 2 0.207 0.322 0.212 9 703071 2 0.222 0.249 0.286 10 703072 2 0.315 0.419 0.208 11 703081 2 0.139 0.131 0.317 12 703082 2 0.108 0.266 0.126 13 703091 2 0.051 0.133 0.161 14 703092 2 0.031 0.160 0.003 15 703101 2 0.064 0.091 0.224 16 703102 2 0.120 0.311 0.080 17 703121 2 0.023 0.033 0.040 18 703122 2 0.166 0.310 0.170 19 703131 2 0.023 0.146 0.026 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 703132 2 0.055 0.214 0.061 21 703141 2 0.140 0.346 0.064 22 703142 2 0.032 -0.076 0.090 23 703151 2 0.156 0.245 0.239 24 703152 2 0.094 0.189 0.174 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.148 0.229 0.175 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.117 0.122 0.099 MEDIAN 2 0.135 0.245 0.175 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.118 0.147 0.156 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.023 -0.076 0.003 LOWER HINGE 2 0.060 0.153 0.085 UPPER HINGE 2 0.178 0.299 0.241 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.529 0.505 0.378 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 703031 1832 1983 152 1.000 0.065 0.326 4.033 0.073 -0.023 2 703032 1843 1983 141 1.000 0.074 -0.393 4.743 0.083 0.012 3 703041 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.050 0.127 3.644 0.055 -0.060 4 703042 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.053 -0.055 2.831 0.059 -0.010 5 703051 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.067 -0.414 3.055 0.077 -0.006 6 703052 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.061 -0.057 2.954 0.069 -0.030 7 703061 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.069 -1.501 10.707 0.070 -0.009 8 703062 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.051 -0.187 2.960 0.058 -0.026 9 703071 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.054 -0.367 3.757 0.062 -0.056 10 703072 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.061 -0.568 4.100 0.071 -0.017 11 703081 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.058 -0.195 4.579 0.064 -0.025 12 703082 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.067 -0.199 3.323 0.073 -0.004 13 703091 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.049 0.129 2.875 0.056 -0.004 14 703092 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.059 -0.393 4.100 0.065 0.001 15 703101 1835 1983 149 1.000 0.067 -0.460 2.575 0.072 0.007 16 703102 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.072 -0.037 2.635 0.083 0.000 17 703121 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.057 0.019 3.040 0.065 -0.006 18 703122 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.062 -0.140 2.591 0.068 -0.007 19 703131 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.074 -0.314 2.919 0.085 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 703132 1875 1983 109 1.000 0.090 -0.231 3.031 0.101 0.000 21 703141 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.059 -0.426 5.557 0.062 -0.001 22 703142 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.053 -0.218 3.042 0.061 0.011 23 703151 1844 1983 140 1.000 0.076 0.079 2.845 0.084 -0.007 24 703152 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.083 0.150 2.805 0.095 -0.019 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.064 -0.222 3.696 0.071 -0.012 STANDARD DEVIATION 30 0.000 0.011 0.356 1.682 0.012 0.018 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.062 -0.197 3.041 0.069 -0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 15 0.000 0.015 0.384 1.206 0.018 0.021 MINIMUM VALUE 106 1.000 0.049 -1.501 2.575 0.055 -0.060 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 140 1.000 0.055 -0.393 2.860 0.062 -0.021 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.070 -0.009 4.066 0.080 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 242 1.000 0.090 0.326 10.707 0.101 0.012 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.322 0.125 0.008 0.294 3.288 -0.008 0.784 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.008 SERIES 703032 AND 703092 141 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.784 SERIES 703131 AND 703132 109 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.53 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 1. 3. 10. 190. 231. 276. 276. RBAR 0.360 0.521 0.407 0.415 0.420 0.309 0.220 SDEV 0.000 0.067 0.132 0.142 0.174 0.206 0.180 SERR 0.000 0.038 0.042 0.010 0.011 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.612 0.901 0.922 0.941 0.945 0.915 0.871 NSS 2.8 8.4 17.2 22.4 23.9 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.044 -0.016 2.994 0.053 -0.154 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.091 -0.053 0.097 49 193 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.29 1.00 1.05 1.34 2.72 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.154 -0.003 0.052 -0.022 -0.095 -0.029 0.055 -0.032 -0.062 0.112 PACF -0.154 -0.027 0.049 -0.007 -0.101 -0.065 0.042 -0.007 -0.071 0.077 95% C.L. 0.129 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.134 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.024 -0.154 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.007 0.044 -0.032 -0.105 -0.039 0.043 -0.032 -0.051 0.102 PACF 0.001 0.007 0.044 -0.032 -0.106 -0.041 0.048 -0.023 -0.056 0.087 95% C.L. 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.130 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 0.001 0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.044 -0.087 2.574 0.049 -0.018 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.018 0.146 0.024 -0.014 -0.094 -0.041 0.022 -0.025 -0.050 0.086 PACF -0.018 0.145 0.030 -0.035 -0.105 -0.040 0.053 -0.004 -0.066 0.076 95% C.L. 0.129 0.129 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.022 -0.016 0.146 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.18 MINUTES